Happy Friday! (For some, at least!) Time to take a look at the state of the Mets rotation.
In the next two series, the Mets are sending Tim Redding, John Maine, Livan Hernandez, Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey against the Nationals and Phillies.
Here’s your matchups:
- Friday, June 5th: Tim Redding vs. Shairon Martis
- Saturday, June 6th: John Maine vs. John Lannan
- Sunday, June 7th: Livan Hernandez vs. Craig Stammen
- Tuesday, June 9th: J.A. Happ vs. Johan Santana
- Wednesday, June 10th: Cole Hamels vs. Mike Pelfrey
- Thursday, June 11th: Joe Blanton vs. Tim Redding
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Stats
Now, let’s take a look at some stats, courtesy of fangraphs.com.
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Below are Standard Stats for the Mets Starters in 2009:Â
| Name | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | TBF | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| Johan Santana | 7 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 72 | 301 | 59 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 21 | 89 |
| John Maine | 5 | 3 | 3.75 | 10 | 10 | 57.2 | 249 | 45 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 32 | 41 |
| Livan Hernandez | 4 | 1 | 4.33 | 10 | 10 | 60.1 | 255 | 70 | 29 | 29 | 7 | 16 | 36 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 4 | 2 | 4.85 | 10 | 10 | 59.1 | 259 | 66 | 33 | 32 | 4 | 23 | 26 |
| Tim Redding | 0 | 2 | 9.2 | 3 | 3 | 14.2 | 76 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 10 |
 Advanced Stats for the Mets Starters in 2009:
| Name | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP |
| Johan Santana | 11.1 | 2.63 | 4.24 | 0.75 | 0.225 | 1.11 | 0.317 | 80.20% | 2 | 2.73 |
| Livan Hernandez | 5.37 | 2.39 | 2.25 | 1.04 | 0.291 | 1.43 | 0.32 | 75.10% | 4.33 | 4.32 |
| John Maine | 6.4 | 4.99 | 1.28 | 0.62 | 0.217 | 1.34 | 0.252 | 72.20% | 3.75 | 4.41 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 3.94 | 3.49 | 1.13 | 0.61 | 0.283 | 1.5 | 0.305 | 68.30% | 4.85 | 4.47 |
| Tim Redding | 6.14 | 6.14 | 1 | 1.23 | 0.303 | 1.91 | 0.338 | 53.40% | 9.2 | 5.82 |
Standard Stats for the last 14 Days:
| Name | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | IP | TBF | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| John Maine | 2 | 0 | 0.75 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| Livan Hernandez | 1 | 0 | 2.45 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 59 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| Johan Santana | 2 | 1 | 3.79 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 83 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 0 | 1 | 5.4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 81 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| Tim Redding | 0 | 2 | 13.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8.2 | 49 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
Advanced Stats for last 14 days:
| Name | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP |
| Mike Pelfrey | 7.36 | 2.95 | 2.5 | 0 | 0.28 | 1.42 | 0.35 | 57.10% | 5.4 | 2.83 |
| John Maine | 6.75 | 3.75 | 1.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 0.22 | 91.70% | 0.75 | 2.91 |
| Livan Hernandez | 6.75 | 1.84 | 3.67 | 0.61 | 0.28 | 1.3 | 0.33 | 86.00% | 2.45 | 3.36 |
| Johan Santana | 10.4 | 3.79 | 2.75 | 1.42 | 0.24 | 1.32 | 0.31 | 78.00% | 3.79 | 4.32 |
| Tim Redding | 6.23 | 6.23 | 1 | 2.08 | 0.4 | 2.54 | 0.43 | 46.90% | 13.5 | 6.85 |
So what do we decipher from all this information?
First, let’s compare ERA-FIP:
- Santana 2-2.73=-0.73
- Maine 3.75-4.41=-0.66
- Hernandez 4.33-4.32=0.01
- Pelfrey 4.85-4.47=0.38
- Redding 9.2-5.82=3.38
Looks like Santana and Maine might be due for a small regression, while Pelfrey is due for a slight improvement. Redding is pitching better than his current ERA and should see great improvement.
Now, let’s look at LOB% where the league average is 72%:
- Santana 80.2%, 78%
- Hernandez 75.1%, 86%
- Maine 72.2%, 91.7%
- Pelfrey 68.3%, 57.1%
- Redding 53.4%, 46.9%
Santana, Maine and Hernandez have been doing a good job of leaving men on base, and all had good to great numbers in their last 14 days.
Finally, let’s look at BABIP:
- Santana .317, .310
- Hernandez .320, .333
- Maine .252, .220
- Pelfrey .305, .350
- Redding .338, .430
A big red flag is Maine’s extremely low BABIP, we could see some regression there. Redding’s BABIP in the last 14 is also extremely high, so he should see some improvement.
That’s all the time I’ve got for now. Let me know what you think.
20 comments
GravediggerHebner
6/5/2009-5:35pm at 5:35 pm (UTC -4)
Tim Redding needs to improve that K/BB ratio. It’s good to see that Pelfrey’s is getting better, I recall a point earlier in the season when it was 0.60, which was horrifying. I would like to see some improvement by Maine there too.
As far as the matchups, on paper you have to love Happ/Santana. Other than that, looks like some hard work ahead.
stickguy
6/5/2009-5:50pm at 5:50 pm (UTC -4)
I’m gonna pull a Jerry here.
I don’t need no stinking stats to tell me that Redding has not been a good pitcher so far!
stickguy
6/5/2009-5:51pm at 5:51 pm (UTC -4)
also, Happ has actually been pitching quite well. He might actually be the real deal.
metsfan4decades
6/5/2009-5:56pm at 5:56 pm (UTC -4)
Of course. Doesn’t that just figure? Meanwhile, we were counting on Niese and he’s not even getting it done so far even in the minors.
metsfan4decades
6/5/2009-5:54pm at 5:54 pm (UTC -4)
wow – some good research here. Maine looking good as far as improvement. Pelf wasn’t looking too bad but that game yesterday….
I’m just glad this latest post wasn’t another breaking story of another Met going down.
metsfan4decades
6/5/2009-5:58pm at 5:58 pm (UTC -4)
BTW – who is Pat Misch? I see according to MLBTR (love those widgets) we picked him up off waivers from the Giants. Doesn’t look like anything special.
stickguy
6/5/2009-6:03pm at 6:03 pm (UTC -4)
LH pitcher. And generally guys getting released by bad teams aren’t special. But, Omar loves to pick them up!
GravediggerHebner
6/5/2009-6:10pm at 6:10 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed. He’s 27 and has spent all or part of each of the last 5 years in AAA. I don’t know what to make of that.
rustyjr
6/5/2009-6:19pm at 6:19 pm (UTC -4)
Were u just speaking Russian cuz I didn’t understand anything written LOL I never understood sabermetrics
Joe R
6/5/2009-6:39pm at 6:39 pm (UTC -4)
Ok we are getting a bat. Manuel speaking on the Fan is basically saying we need a bat. He said he can’t ask young players like Murphy and Fmart to hit for power and ruin their swing. He went through every position one by one and said the only power is basically Beltran. Not going to come from Sheff consistantly Wright isn’t hitting for power. He also said he needs that 3 run HR to come back in games and to seperate in close games Why is this significant and IMO a telling sign? Manuel never talks like that. He has always said Murph and Tatis can pick up the slack. If Manuel is hinting this to media you know Omar has heard it already.
dirtysanchez
6/5/2009-6:45pm at 6:45 pm (UTC -4)
yep. That is exactly what ive been trying to say. Beltran and Wright are the only true power guys(and wright is ice cold). Pitchers are going to give them NOTHING to hit unless we have some intimidation…I hope Omar is working or we may see Manuel pull an ozzie.
Joe R
6/5/2009-6:50pm at 6:50 pm (UTC -4)
Haha yes he will. I know we all have thought the bat may be coming but I thought it was significant finally hearing it out of Manuels mouth. We know how he likes to turn a career .250 hitter into his new favorite son. Also didn’t manuel say Luis would be batting lead off this year LOL why not tonight. Luis knows the spot takes pitches and has like a .380 obp. Puzzling.
dirtysanchez
6/5/2009-7:02pm at 7:02 pm (UTC -4)
lol you messed up right when you said “manuel say” lol
metsfan4decades
6/5/2009-6:55pm at 6:55 pm (UTC -4)
And he just said the same thing on the SNY pre-game. I hope that isn’t just wishful thinking on his part – and he’s saying it b/c he knows Omar is working on it.
dirtysanchez
6/5/2009-6:45pm at 6:45 pm (UTC -4)
Great Research Case(as usual)
Kingman 26
6/5/2009-7:03pm at 7:03 pm (UTC -4)
My sentiments exactly!
Case is Da Man.
Joe R
6/5/2009-6:46pm at 6:46 pm (UTC -4)
Now it’s 2-4 weeks with Reyes?? LOL wasn’t it 6 weeks 6 hours ago LOL. Jeez
Joe R
6/5/2009-6:52pm at 6:52 pm (UTC -4)
Omar said 2-4 weeks btw
Kingman 26
6/5/2009-7:04pm at 7:04 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, he said it should be 2–4 weeks before they discover his next injury…..
Joe R
6/5/2009-6:54pm at 6:54 pm (UTC -4)
Btw this site works great with IPhone. Good job.