I was reading Ken Davidoff’s Baseball Insider this morning in Newsday and I thought I would apply some of the information that he used in discussing Melky “The Melkman” Cabrera to some of our beloved Metsies. Specifically the part about BABiP and Line Drive Percentage. This excerpt is what prompted me to do so:
“…a player’s BABiP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) should be between 100 and 120 points higher than his line-drive percentage (percentage of balls put into play that are line drives). Anything higher means the player has benefited by some good luck. Anything lower, and the player has been somewhat unlucky.”
With that paragraph in mind, let’s see which Mets have been lucky or unlucky so far this year. Bear in mind this exercise assumes the above ratio of BABiP to LD% is a relevant basis for discussion. If it’s not, please direct your anger to Ken Davidoff. Statistics gleaned from baseball-reference.com.
Surgeon General's warning: sabermetrics may be harmful to your mental health
- Omir Santos – BABiP: .266; LD%: 32%. Santos (-54) would appear to be woefully unlucky.
- Brian Schneider – BABiP: .219; LD%: 21%. Schneider (+09) also seems fairly unlucky.
- Luis Castillo – BABiP: .297; LD%: 22%. Castillo (+77) still below the ‘accepted’ level.
- Alex Cora – BABiP: .322; LD%: 21%. Cora (+112) falls in the ‘accepted’ range.
- Daniel Murphy – BABiP: .248; LD%: 19%. Murphy (+58) not lucky.
- Fernando Tatis – BABiP: .272; LD%: 22%. Tatis (+50) not lucky.
- David Wright – BABiP: .458; LD%: 26%. Wright (+198) the first lucky Met so far.
- Carlos Beltran – BABiP: .378; LD%: 20%. Beltran (+178) also getting lucky.
- Ryan Church – BABiP: .313; LD%: 21%. Church (+103) in the accepted range.
- Gary Sheffield – BABiP: .273; LD%: 14%. Sheffield (+133) getting a bit lucky.
- Fernando Martinez – BABiP: .226; LD%: 6%. Martinez (+166) getting lucky.
What does this tell us? I have no idea. It would seem that we should expect Cora and Church to continue to perform at roughly the level they have been. Santos, Schneider, Castillo, Murphy and Tatis we should expect some improvement from. Wright, Beltran, Sheffield and Martinez we should expect to drop off.
I think there must be more to it than just this, and I think I need a cigarette, and I quit 15 years ago. What do you think?
Sabermetrics blow my mind
31 comments
stickguy
6/8/2009-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
My best guess? Other than F Mart (a real small sample size), the 2 lucky regulars are also the biggest power threats.
maybe they just play them deeper, and more LDs fall in front of the OFs?
CaseStreet
6/8/2009-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
Shef needs to hit more line-drives
prismo
6/8/2009-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
I think I can shed some light on Wright’s “luck”.
So far this year when Wright’s been in his slumps (2 of them so far), he’s struck out A TON. An abnormally high amount of time – which doesn’t go against his BABiP. That means that although Wright goes pretty evenly between hot streaks and cool downs, the hot streaks are counting much more towards his BABiP. So he may have been lucky, but that number is likely exaggerated due to his high strike out count this season.
Am I onto anything here?
GravediggerHebner
6/8/2009-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
Perhaps, I can’t tell as my head exploded while putting this piece together (see photo).
sabermetrician
6/8/2009-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
Not really, because once the ball is in play (and not a home run) all control has been lost by the pitcher and the batter. That’s the point of considering BABiP. We expect BABiP – LD% to tend toward a constant, so Ks become effectively neutralized.
stickguy
6/8/2009-3:06pm at 3:06 pm (UTC -4)
DW just hits them so hard they are hard to catch.
Unlike Castillo, where you don’t need a glove.
Joe R
6/8/2009-3:18pm at 3:18 pm (UTC -4)
Haha its great when Castillo bats from the left side and the left fielder moves in to play a dee shortstop! They ususally move in a few steps for a pitcher,they move even closer for Castillo! Yeah Omar 4 years for our boy!
fongy2
6/8/2009-3:20pm at 3:20 pm (UTC -4)
At 6Mil
per.Aint
America
a great
country?
Joe R
6/8/2009-3:34pm at 3:34 pm (UTC -4)
Just ask Don King..
There's Always '09
6/8/2009-4:07pm at 4:07 pm (UTC -4)
More like the shortstop is playing a deep catcher and the left fielder is playing shortstop.
rustyjr
6/8/2009-2:10pm at 2:10 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t have the head for sabermetrics
DNDJohan aka kistics
6/8/2009-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
Does this mean that Schneider’s offense will get much better? He’s such a liability with his bat…
stickguy
6/8/2009-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
but he makes up for it be being lousy defensively.
I really can’t wait until he is gone. 2010 is too long to wait. Free Josh Thole!
wannybackstra
6/8/2009-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
By all accounts, Josh Thole’s defense is not major league ready by a long shot. So I wouldn’t go out of my way to push away to criticize Schneider’s defense.
That said, Thole is tearing up AA pitching and could at least justify his place on the roster if he continues.
wannybackstra
6/8/2009-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
This is a great use of stats because it comes to a logical conclusion and verifies what most rational people know and expect — that talented big leaguers who are hitting .217 are not likely to hit .217 all year and those who are hitting .350 are not likely to maintain their pace either.
Good stuff, Hebner.
fongy2
6/8/2009-3:13pm at 3:13 pm (UTC -4)
Mumbo-Jumbo!–Numbers only mean so much.Don’t try and tell any Twins,
Angels or other real serious Baseball
fan Tori Hunter isn’t as good a CFer
to play the last 15 yrs Yet sabermetrics says hes middle of the
pack. Just look at Kirk Gibsons MVP numbers in ’88.
fongy2
6/8/2009-3:18pm at 3:18 pm (UTC -4)
Thgis is a daily game played
by men who are human beings
not XBox or Playstation.
Joe R
6/8/2009-3:37pm at 3:37 pm (UTC -4)
So we got a good 2 weeks out of Sheffield. Just joking with the sarcasm but lets say Sheff doesnt play another game this year it was a good grab from Omar. Helped us out when we were at rock bottom!! Hopefully he continues to deliver while platooning.
DNDJohan aka kistics
6/8/2009-3:45pm at 3:45 pm (UTC -4)
So….. Who wants to trade for Pujols?
There's Always '09
6/8/2009-3:52pm at 3:52 pm (UTC -4)
DWright is getting lucky, but not because of BiBP.
sabermetrician
6/8/2009-3:53pm at 3:53 pm (UTC -4)
LOL…no doubt. That pic of him and that chick the other day. Woweee.
sabermetrician
6/8/2009-3:55pm at 3:55 pm (UTC -4)
So, I think it would be awesome if Carlos Beltran’s cousin (Raymond Fuentes) fell to us at #72 in the draft tomorrow.
There's Always '09
6/8/2009-4:02pm at 4:02 pm (UTC -4)
Never heard of him, but i’ll look him up. Does he have a Facebook?
Do you have a link to that pic of DWright and “that chick”?
sabermetrician
6/8/2009-4:18pm at 4:18 pm (UTC -4)
http://realdirtymets.com/2009/06/05/post-game-new-york-mets-3-washington-nationals-1/
There's Always '09
6/8/2009-4:20pm at 4:20 pm (UTC -4)
Yea, she’s pretty smokin. Amazing what good looks, an ML contract, and talent will do for you.
GravediggerHebner
6/8/2009-4:22pm at 4:22 pm (UTC -4)
Her name is Molly Beers. Lots of good pics if you google her name.
There's Always '09
6/8/2009-4:23pm at 4:23 pm (UTC -4)
molly beers xxx?
CaseStreet
6/8/2009-4:16pm at 4:16 pm (UTC -4)
speaking of Fuentes, good thing we went w/ the pricier K-Rod.
There's Always '09
6/8/2009-4:18pm at 4:18 pm (UTC -4)
Q: If K-Rod’s arm falls off as so many have predicted, would he still be more valuable to his team than a full appendaged and limbed Fuentes?
A: Yes.
sabermetrician
6/8/2009-4:18pm at 4:18 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed. K-Rod has been nothing short of phenomenal.
charlies
6/8/2009-6:56pm at 6:56 pm (UTC -4)
The main thrust here is the percentage of liners. When a guy hits a line drive, his average is like .700 – .800. So, naturally, Wright is going to have more success when he hits the largest percentage of liners on the team. Now, the interesting part of this is the non-liners that result in hits (or else this wouldn’t be an interesting post). Because David has power and a tendency to hit hard liners, the defense must play him deeper and as a result we have seen a lot of soft hits (bloops) to the shallow part of the outfield. Also, Wright already has more triples this season than all but one other of his full seasons (3 this year, 2 in ’08, 1 in ’07, 5 in ’06, 1 in ’05). And, he is on pace for more doubles than ever in his career with 16 thru 54 games and a rate of a double every 14.94 PAs (pace of 48). Therefore, maybe he his hitting more fly balls for base hits. Of course, there is the curious homer drought, which can lead one to think there have been some less liners than usual and less fly balls result in hits.
But, after looking at his trajectory stats, it’s clear what’s going on. David it hitting .464 on 56 ground balls, which is very impressive considering the NL is hitting .235 when hitting a ground ball. Also, David is hitting .308 when hitting a fly ball and the league is hitting .224. Finally, David is slightly underachieving with his .711 line drive average as the NL is hitting .722.
Interestingly, his career trajectory numbers suggest he is in for a correction:
Grounders: .270 (correction down)
Fly Balls: .280 (correction down)
Liners: .761 (correction up)
So, with his 26 hits via the grounder representing more than a third (37.6%) of all his hits, we have to assume his BABIP will drop as he hits more grounders because it’s hard to imagine someone having this type of incredible success above league average for a full season.
On a side: I find it interesting that he is overachieving on fly balls, but is on pace to hit 9 homers. If you make some basic assumptions (the 6.5 doubles above his career season average pace and the crazy triple pace he’s on (6 above career season average), you can find 12-13 hits that could have been or could be homers at season’s end. That would put him at around 17-18 HRs this season. Strange stuff. Certainly not science here.