Happy Friday! (For some, at least!) Time to take a look at the state of the Mets rotation.
In the next two series, the Mets are sendingÂ Livan Hernandez, Fernando Nieve, Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey and Tim Redding against the Yankees and Orioles.
Here’s your matchups:
- Friday, June 12th: Livan Hernandez, RHP (5-1, 3.88)Â vs. Joba Chamberlain, RHP (3-1, 3.79)
- Saturday, June 13th: Fernando Nieve, RHP (0-0, 0.00) vs. Andy Pettitte, LHP (6-2, 4.22)Â
- Sunday, June 14th: Johan Santana, LHP (8-3, 2.39) vs. A.J. Burnett, RHP (4-3, 4.89)
- Tuesday, June 16th: Mike Pelfrey, RHP (4-2, 4.68) vs. Jeremy Guthrie, RHP (4-6, 5.52)
- Wednesday, June 17th: Tim Redding, RHP (0-2, 6.18)Â vs. Koji Uehara, RHP (2-4, 4.37)
- Thursday, June 18th: Livan Hernandez, RHP (5-1, 3.88)Â vs. Brad Bergesen, RHP (3-2, 4.04)
Now, let’s take a look at some stats, courtesy of fangraphs.com.
Â BelowÂ are Standard Stats for the Mets Starters in 2009:Â
Advanced Stats for the Mets Starters in 2009:
Standard Stats for the last 14 Days:
Advanced Stats for last 14 days:
So what do we decipher from all this information?
First, let’s compare ERA-FIP:
- Santana 2.39 – 3.34 = -0.95
- Maine 4.52 – 4.95 = -0.43
- Hernandez 3.88 – 4.18 -0.31
- Pelfrey 4.68 – 4.46 = 0.22
- Redding 6.18 – 4.13 = 2.05
As you can see,Â Santana, Maine and Livan (to a small extent) have better ERA’s then they are actually pitching. Pelfrey is pitching slightly better than his ERA while Redding is pitching much better than his current ERA and should continue to see great improvement.
Now, let’s look at LOB% where the league average is 72%:
- Santana 81.8%, 90%
- Hernandez 77.5%, 82.4%
- Maine 70%, 68.2%
- Pelfrey 67.4%, 52.6%
- Redding 59.7%, 57.5%
Santana and Hernandez have been doing a good job of leaving men on base, andÂ had good to great numbers in their last 14 days.
Finally, let’s look at BABIP:
- Santana .302, .240
- Hernandez .309, .292
- Maine .250, .213
- Pelfrey .300, .334
- Redding .318, .338
The average BABIP should stay around .300. Anything above or below is likely based on luck and that pitcher is due for an adjustment. A big red flag (aside from his shoulder fatigue) is Maine’s extremely low BABIP (meaning he’s been lucky), as we saw inÂ his last start. Redding and Pelfrey’s BABIP in the last 14 is still a bitÂ high (meaning they’ve been unlucky), so they should see some improvement. To read a good article explaining BABIP, checkoutÂ Brew Crew Ball’sÂ article here.
With Maine joining his buddy Ollie Perez on the Disable List, Fernando Nieve will take his place in the rotation. While having two starters on the DL is certainly a reason to be concerned, the Mets rotation has still been quite good. As long as they continue to give the team quality starts, we should be in good shape toÂ attempt toÂ keep up with the Phillies in the Pennant Race.Â What are your thoughts on the Mets Rotation?