Happy Friday! (For some, at least!) Time to take a look at the state of the Mets rotation.
In the next two series, the Mets are sending Livan Hernandez, Fernando Nieve, Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey and Tim Redding against the Yankees and Orioles.
Looks like mom and son have a few things in common.
Butt Buddies
Here’s your matchups:
- Friday, June 12th: Livan Hernandez, RHP (5-1, 3.88)Â vs. Joba Chamberlain, RHP (3-1, 3.79)
- Saturday, June 13th: Fernando Nieve, RHP (0-0, 0.00) vs. Andy Pettitte, LHP (6-2, 4.22)Â
- Sunday, June 14th: Johan Santana, LHP (8-3, 2.39) vs. A.J. Burnett, RHP (4-3, 4.89)
- Tuesday, June 16th: Mike Pelfrey, RHP (4-2, 4.68) vs. Jeremy Guthrie, RHP (4-6, 5.52)
- Wednesday, June 17th: Tim Redding, RHP (0-2, 6.18)Â vs. Koji Uehara, RHP (2-4, 4.37)
- Thursday, June 18th: Livan Hernandez, RHP (5-1, 3.88)Â vs. Brad Bergesen, RHP (3-2, 4.04)
Now, let’s take a look at some stats, courtesy of fangraphs.com.
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 Below are Standard Stats for the Mets Starters in 2009:Â
| Name | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | TBF | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| Johan Santana | 8 | 3 | 2.39 | 12 | 12 | 79 | 330 | 67 | 28 | 21 | 10 | 22 | 91 |
| John Maine | 5 | 4 | 4.52 | 11 | 11 | 61.2 | 269 | 51 | 33 | 31 | 7 | 34 | 42 |
| Livan Hernandez | 5 | 1 | 3.88 | 11 | 11 | 67.1 | 282 | 74 | 29 | 29 | 7 | 20 | 40 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 4 | 2 | 4.68 | 11 | 11 | 65.1 | 283 | 72 | 37 | 34 | 5 | 24 | 28 |
| Tim Redding | 0 | 2 | 6.18 | 5 | 5 | 27.2 | 128 | 30 | 19 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 18 |
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Advanced Stats for the Mets Starters in 2009:
| Name | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP |
| Johan Santana | 10.37 | 2.51 | 4.14 | 1.14 | 0.231 | 1.13 | 0.302 | 81.8% | 2.39 | 3.34 |
| Livan Hernandez | 5.35 | 2.67 | 2.00 | 0.94 | 0.280 | 1.40 | 0.309 | 77.5% | 3.88 | 4.18 |
| John Maine | 6.13 | 4.96 | 1.24 | 1.02 | 0.227 | 1.38 | 0.250 | 70.0% | 4.52 | 4.95 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 3.86 | 3.31 | 1.17 | 0.69 | 0.280 | 1.47 | 0.300 | 67.4% | 4.68 | 4.46 |
| Tim Redding | 5.86 | 3.90 | 1.50 | 0.65 | 0.278 | 1.52 | 0.318 | 59.7% | 6.18 | 4.13 |
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Standard Stats for the last 14 Days:
| Name | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | IP | TBF | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| John Maine | 1 | 1 | 6.30 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Livan Hernandez | 1 | 0 | 2.13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12.2 | 52 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| Johan Santana | 1 | 1 | 5.54 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 54 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 0 | 1 | 5.71 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 17.1 | 78 | 20 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| Tim Redding | 0 | 1 | 5.82 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 17.0 | 75 | 20 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
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Advanced Stats for last 14 days:
| Name | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP |
| Mike Pelfrey | 5.71 | 3.12 | 1.83 | 0.52 | 0.290 | 1.50 | 0.334 | 52.6% | 5.71 | 3.95 |
| John Maine | 5.40 | 3.60 | 1.50 | 2.70 | 0.242 | 1.30 | 0.213 | 68.2% | 6.30 | 6.98 |
| Livan Hernandez | 6.39 | 4.26 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.235 | 1.34 | 0.292 | 82.4% | 2.13 | 3.08 |
| Johan Santana | 3.46 | 1.38 | 2.50 | 3.46 | 0.290 | 1.31 | 0.240 | 90.0% | 5.54 | 7.78 |
| Tim Redding | 5.29 | 2.12 | 2.50 | 0.53 | 0.294 | 1.41 | 0.334 | 57.5% | 5.82 | 3.38 |
So what do we decipher from all this information?
First, let’s compare ERA-FIP:
- Santana 2.39 – 3.34 = -0.95
- Maine 4.52 – 4.95 = -0.43
- Hernandez 3.88 – 4.18 -0.31
- Pelfrey 4.68 – 4.46 = 0.22
- Redding 6.18 – 4.13 = 2.05
Maybe Santana can share this with Maine.
As you can see, Santana, Maine and Livan (to a small extent) have better ERA’s then they are actually pitching. Pelfrey is pitching slightly better than his ERA while Redding is pitching much better than his current ERA and should continue to see great improvement.
Now, let’s look at LOB% where the league average is 72%:
- Santana 81.8%, 90%
- Hernandez 77.5%, 82.4%
- Maine 70%, 68.2%
- Pelfrey 67.4%, 52.6%
- Redding 59.7%, 57.5%
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So that's how Livan stays healthy.
Santana and Hernandez have been doing a good job of leaving men on base, and had good to great numbers in their last 14 days.
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Finally, let’s look at BABIP:
- Santana .302, .240
- Hernandez .309, .292
- Maine .250, .213
- Pelfrey .300, .334
- Redding .318, .338
The average BABIP should stay around .300. Anything above or below is likely based on luck and that pitcher is due for an adjustment. A big red flag (aside from his shoulder fatigue) is Maine’s extremely low BABIP (meaning he’s been lucky), as we saw in his last start. Redding and Pelfrey’s BABIP in the last 14 is still a bit high (meaning they’ve been unlucky), so they should see some improvement. To read a good article explaining BABIP, checkout Brew Crew Ball’s article here.
Is Mr. Met the next to go on the DL?
With Maine joining his buddy Ollie Perez on the Disable List, Fernando Nieve will take his place in the rotation. While having two starters on the DL is certainly a reason to be concerned, the Mets rotation has still been quite good. As long as they continue to give the team quality starts, we should be in good shape to attempt to keep up with the Phillies in the Pennant Race.
 What are your thoughts on the Mets Rotation?
8 comments
QnsNative718
6/12/2009-4:50pm at 4:50 pm (UTC -4)
Lmao.. This is great.
dirtysanchez
6/12/2009-4:51pm at 4:51 pm (UTC -4)
jeez…case you out did yourself bud….what a awesome post!
metsfan4decades
6/12/2009-4:51pm at 4:51 pm (UTC -4)
On paper, we all know who the advantage goes to this series. We’re not fielding our A team, they are…
Who knows though what will happen? I’m predicting we win at least 1, hoping for 2.
And I wondered when that Mama picture would surface….
dirtysanchez
6/12/2009-4:54pm at 4:54 pm (UTC -4)
lmaoooo yea i think Mr. Met will be the next to go lol…the DL team is better than our healthy team right now AND THEY NEED A MASCOT lollll
CaseStreet
6/12/2009-5:04pm at 5:04 pm (UTC -4)
Tnx peeps. I’m out. First game of practice for the Long Island City YMCA Bulldogs. Wish me luck. I hope no one has jumped off any bridges when I get back.
trs86
6/12/2009-5:41pm at 5:41 pm (UTC -4)
Great job Case.
GravediggerHebner
6/12/2009-6:18pm at 6:18 pm (UTC -4)
Nice, how do you do that “after the jump” thing?
Kingman 26
6/12/2009-7:23pm at 7:23 pm (UTC -4)
Really great stuff Case!!
Joba’s Mom is pretty!!