Here’s what you missed on Thursday, June 18, 2009:
- Morning Open Thread by CaseStreet
- Breaking News!!! TRDMB Front Page Vol. 3 by Mr North Jersey
- NL East Daily Recap from 6/17/09 by mrose
- This Day In Mets Infamy with Rusty 6/18/09 by rustyjr
- 2010 Freee Agent Pool by QnsNative718
- Breaking News: Raul Ibanez to DL by mrose
- Gameday Weather 6/18/09 by prismo
- An In-Depth Look At… Jason Berken. by QnsNative718
- Offensive Individuals – Mets In The Top 10 by GravediggerHebner
- What Mets Fans are NOT Talking About by trs86
- Breaking News: Maine feels pinch in shoulder by mrose
- Game Thread: Mets (33-30) vs Orioles (28-37) by dirtysanchez
- Post Game: Dewey Defeats Truman by GravediggerHebner
You got something to say? Say it here!
116 comments
sabermetrician
6/19/2009-7:37am at 7:37 am (UTC -4)
I’m down today guys. How can we keep losing to trash? Is Omar going to do something or are we, like Jerry says, striving to be .500 until we’re healthy? This was a good time to gain ground on the Philths and we get ONE game. Pathetic. Over/under on games until Wright gets a hit again? 6?
Kingman 26
6/19/2009-8:40am at 8:40 am (UTC -4)
Jerry was laughing it up in the clubhouse with the media after the game, something I cannot picture Davey J or Bobby V doing.
There is only so much we can do with trades, and for all we know, Reyes, Maine, and Delgado might not be back for months.
Jerry must go, and he must go NOW.
Fair or not, firing Jerry and bringing in a new attitude is the only significant change we can make right now.
Jerry is Willie, and Jerry and Alomar must be scraped off of this team like the life-sucking barnacles that they are.
There's Always '09
6/19/2009-8:55am at 8:55 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think Sandy Alomar is to blame. He is not the voice of the club. Jerry is.
Kingman 26
6/19/2009-9:04am at 9:04 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, but we need to sweep out the voice of Willie, which clearly still speaks loudly and clearly through Jerry and Alomar.
I may now agree with the people who said Jerry is fine with losing, after the way he laughed it up last night.
If he doesn’t care, why the hell should I?
There's Always '09
6/19/2009-8:52am at 8:52 am (UTC -4)
We need someone that can hit home runs. This lack of power in the lineup is seriously embarassing. Makes one wonder if everyone on this team was on steroids. Seriously. OK, maybe half joking.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-8:55am at 8:55 am (UTC -4)
we are 3rd to last in the division in HR’s…we just need a bat for real. Im sorry but fmart has to go down and get more polished as a hitter. Daniel should see more playing time but i can understand a demotion for him too.
There's Always '09
6/19/2009-8:56am at 8:56 am (UTC -4)
3rd to last in the NL you mean? Not 3rd to last in the division. I’ll tell you right now, they are probably last in the division in HRs.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
lol in the NL my bad. Ahead of padres and giants…
mrbill
6/19/2009-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
Wright seems to be off steroids this year, doesn’t he? …LOL
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
its not that…he changed his approach. He said it himself that at citi field after hsi first bp there, he will have to focus on hitting line drives than HR’s. Just a shift in focus thats all.
mrbill
6/19/2009-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
I was joking about the steroids. However, how you do explain his lack of Hrs on the road?
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
a change of approach…If you alter your swing for line drives, that is going to change your HR production. Where wright gets in trouble is when he tries to hit a home run..he has a huge hole in his swing and is often late on a fast ball because of it.
mrbill
6/19/2009-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
So he had to change his approach because without the steroids he cannot hit any HR’s and has to shoot for line drives… j/k
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
lol he altered it because unless your adam dunn..your not going to hit HR’s consistantly in citi field. At most wright will hit them at the warning track unless he really gets ahold of one..
There's Always '09
6/19/2009-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
Wish we could go back to Mattsblog back in the beginning of April and I am quoted there as saying Wright may hit 15 Home Runs this year because of that ballpark. I look like a fool now. More like 10.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-8:53am at 8:53 am (UTC -4)
like i was telling stick yesterday…yes this was a good opportunity to gain ground on the phills but which is more important, being in 1st place in june or being 1st place in october. Even if we regain 1st place, do you actually think we can hold it. This is how the season is going to play out unfortunatly. Nobody is going to run away with the division….every team execpt the nationals will be in striking distance the whole season.
Kingman 26
6/19/2009-9:01am at 9:01 am (UTC -4)
Dirty, we are going to be buried in 3 weeks; maybe less.
We need change, and what big bat are we going to get?
Holliday? FMart and how many others will we have to give for him?
The Wilpons won’t take on Carlos Lee’s contract.
I say that we must make a managerial change, even if it is on the cheap with someone like Tim Teufel.
A new voice and attitude is the only really significant thing we can do to try to change this team.
Did you see Jerry laughing it up after the game with the media last night? How many fans were laughing it up? KRod sure wasn’t.
You know I am an optimist, but this season could be out of reach within 2–3 weeks.
3 against the highest scoring team in baseball and 4 against the Cards who we never beat. Then the Yanks again.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:20am at 9:20 am (UTC -4)
i disagree in that i do think they would take lees contract but i dont see a managerial change anywhere in the future since they messed up big time with the willie thing. BTW how many were saying we were going to be buried by the end of our road trip….yet we actually gained a game on the phills…have a little more hope my friend. The phills just lost their biggest bat and their closer…they are not going anywhere fast.
Kingman 26
6/19/2009-9:24am at 9:24 am (UTC -4)
Not sure when I remember being so close to hopeless with this team.
Watching Jerry laugh it up last night just reminded me SO much of Willie.
I will try to search my mind for my old optimism.
I guess I do realize Jerry is going nowhere, but I just feel that we are not going to see a significant trade, and even if we do, how much is one player going to help?
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:28am at 9:28 am (UTC -4)
we will see a trade but it wont happen now…market is too expensive. When the bad teams finally realize they are out of it, then omar can swoop in to take some contract off their hands.
I dont remember ever seeing willie laugh lol.
My thing with this team is they dont play fundimental baseball. Beltran and Church should have been at 2nd with their shots but they didnt read the throw back into the infield well. Good teams play fundimental baseball…i believe we can survive this but they need to start playing more sound baseball
mrbill
6/19/2009-9:36am at 9:36 am (UTC -4)
That’s the thing Dirty. The team will no survive if they keep playing like this. What makes you think they will play better? how are they going to make the switch? This might be how they are going to play until the DL players come back and it will be too late.
None of those guys are going to be heroes.
QnsNative718
6/19/2009-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
Plus Omar is HOPING TO GOD, that Delgado and Reyes comes back and helps balance the team, and as we are well aware of, that is far from a guarantee.
QnsNative718
6/19/2009-9:39am at 9:39 am (UTC -4)
Like I’ve been saying for the last couple wks, we’ll be out of the hunt come the ASB. Beltran and Wright are having a monster first half(minus the hr’s ofcourse) and this team is still regressing.
Jerry wont be let go, because the organization would get too much flak from the Willie debacle last yr plus this team is still a winning team.(Thats going to change IMO).
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:43am at 9:43 am (UTC -4)
i honestly dont think we will be out of the race THE WHOLE YEAR…and that goes with the marlins and braves as well. What makes you think the phillies are going to pull away with this come the asb?
mrbill
6/19/2009-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
Dirty, if the mets keep losing series they way they have, there is no way they’ll make it to the WC. It doesn’t matter how bad the phillies are.
The mets have lost at least 4/5 series lately. You don’t get anywhere playing like this and the worst part is I don’t see how it’s going to change.
What’s the formula?
QnsNative718
6/19/2009-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
Youre right, Dirty. Ibanez is out indefinately and Lidge is Armando Benitez this yr. That is def. great for us. Still tho, I dont think we should have the mentality of HOPING to play .500 ball and HOPING Delgado & Reyes will take over when they return.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
@ bill
What do you say about the phillies losing series then…they got sweept by the jays and they are more healthy than we are…
@ qnz
agreed with the mentality shift but that has to start from the manager down. I think jerry is playing the victim card and his lack of mangerial ability is exposed now more than ever because he has to do more with less and i dont think he knows or can do it.
mrbill
6/19/2009-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
Dirty, the Jays swept the phillies because they are BETTER. Wanna talk about a fair win? there you have it. That sweep was expected.
The Orioles are not the Jays. Even with the injuries the mets are better but they failed.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
how are the jays better than philly…didnt philly win the WS last year…jays didnt even make the playoffs…
mrbill
6/19/2009-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
Haaa, you got me there. good point Dirty.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
Lol finally! You have been playing me tough today bill lol
mrbill
6/19/2009-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
You threw the WS card! can’t compete with that.. lol
But I’ll say this, I don’t believe the phillies are going to waste as many opportunities as the mets. Remember what happened last year in September.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
agreed on your last point..i think we need not leave the season to our performance in september for a 3rd season straight..but third times a charm…but id like not to test that saying lol
Kingman 26
6/19/2009-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
Dirty–This is precisely why a managerial change is all that can seriously affect this team.
They will not run hard for Jerry; not even Wright does consistently.
Only a new voice can even have the potential to change the culture of contentedness and Bad News Bears fundamentals.
I guess I am being an annoying pessimist here, but I am truly disgusted, and this time I am not taking back my use of the word “disgusted!”
On Huff’s dropped popup the other night, Wright jogged and was on first when Teixeira would have been on second.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:49am at 9:49 am (UTC -4)
While i think its a byproduct of Jerry’s lax attitude, the Mets are going to give him a pass because of the injuries. Jerry isnt going anywhere…
Kingman 26
6/19/2009-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
Agreed 100% Dirty.
I hope we win 7 of the next 10, and I will be the FIRST to criticize myself for losing hope….
QnsNative718
6/19/2009-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
I agree. Jerry wont be going anywhere, especially after what went on last yr around this time.
mrbill
6/19/2009-9:33am at 9:33 am (UTC -4)
The phills just lost their biggest bat and their closer…they are not going anywhere fast.
I totally agree with Bobby O last night when he said the team cannot play watching how their competition is doing. They need to worry about themselves not the phillies or the marlins or any other team.
Even with all the injuries there are games they should have won (ie. last night)and hoping the phillies collapse is not the answer.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
i didnt say it for that reason at all. I was just pointing out that while we have blown chance after chance…teh phills have stayed right there. Now they dont have their big bat and closer. All im saying is that will hold them at bay and maybe give us a shot to be within striking distance come the ASB.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-8:51am at 8:51 am (UTC -4)
Well its the moment we have all been waiting for…the aftermath of krod blowing his first save. We all knew it was going to happen….
There's Always '09
6/19/2009-8:53am at 8:53 am (UTC -4)
There is no issue here. However, it is exacerbated by Luis Castillo’s drop, because now this is two blown saves in a week.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-8:55am at 8:55 am (UTC -4)
lol agreed…talk about great timing as they are heading to ny to play the rays loll
There's Always '09
6/19/2009-8:58am at 8:58 am (UTC -4)
Think I’m going to start taking bets. Did a little research and found this Vegas line:
Odds to break the story about KRod’s bum knee:
Mike Scoscia: -200
The Field: +180
Kingman 26
6/19/2009-9:05am at 9:05 am (UTC -4)
Didn’t Brian Bruney have his own line on this??
There's Always '09
6/19/2009-9:29am at 9:29 am (UTC -4)
“Who the eff is Brian Bruney?”
CaseStreet
6/19/2009-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)
Anyone interested in Magglio?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/06/tigers-bench-magglio-ordonez-indefinitely.html
Ordonez has been solid for years. I’d love to have him in LF and batting behind Wright.
Kingman 26
6/19/2009-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
I would be interested in him as our new manager….or head trainer….
prismo
6/19/2009-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)
NO THANKS. Magglio has lost all of his power, which means he’s useless to the Mets. Church and Sheffield can both hit .270, but with much higher SLG% than Magglio has put up this season. Not to mention Ordonez’ big contract.
Kingman 26
6/19/2009-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
Gotta agree….if they release him a la Shef, then I would take him.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
its his ab’s. If he meeds a certian number of ab’s for the year, his 18mil option for next year automatically gets picked up. With that being said…you wondering why he is “benchd indefinatly” lol
CaseStreet
6/19/2009-9:35am at 9:35 am (UTC -4)
I just can’t believe that all of a sudden Magglio isn’t any good. Look at his career numbers:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ordonma01.shtml
Maybe Detroit would like to do us another favor.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:38am at 9:38 am (UTC -4)
considering he has not shown that much power so far….dont know how much of a favor i would consider it.
prismo
6/19/2009-9:40am at 9:40 am (UTC -4)
Well Daniel Murphy has twice as many HR as Magglio Ordonez, in less at bats. That just about sums it up!
The guy’s had over 200 AB this season and hasn’t hit the ball hard the entire time.
If you’d like an explanation I might start with the letter “R” and end with “oids”.
QnsNative718
6/19/2009-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
Something is up w. Ordonez. He just got off the Bereavement List so his heads not all there. He’s putting up mediocre numbers plus he’s 35.
CaseStreet
6/19/2009-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
so you guys expect Magglio to keep the power drought the entire season?
Should we expect the same from David Wright then?
I know he’s 35, but I don’t think the Mets can be agists. Just look @ Grandpa Philly.
All I’m sayin is Magglio has been Mr. Consistency for the past few years. There’s no reason barring injuries, that anyone should expect less from him.
billydeewilliams
6/19/2009-9:32am at 9:32 am (UTC -4)
at least last night’s loss was much easier to take coming off last weekend. i’m not really suprised when they give games away anymore.
i’m able to keep my stress and insanity levels down.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:39am at 9:39 am (UTC -4)
For me, last nights loss is easier to stomach. The orioles beat us last night. If they win in that fashion for me its easier to deal with than the yankee game where castillo dropped the ball. It was a well played game by both sides and they beat us with our best. Tip your cap and move on. They earned that win.
mrbill
6/19/2009-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
If the Orioles were good I’d say they earned it but, they are not. The mets should have taken the series and didn’t. This mediocre lineup up could have beaten that team and with the phillies loss they would have accomplished something they really needed but instead they did nothing.
Another wasted opportunity.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
and again even if we won last night..we would still be in 2nd place…
They earned that win. The better team does not necessarily win. Its all about execution. The yankees were shut out by the nationals for goodness sake. The rookie hit a clean double. the next guy walked. The next guy executed a good bunt and we got jobed by the ump. Next guy earned a walk. Huff sealed it with a clean single.
We got beat but they earned it cleanly and fairly.
mrbill
6/19/2009-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
We lost because K-rod could not throw strikes. Again, the mets beat themselves.
QnsNative718
6/19/2009-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
But that is going to happen from time to time. No one is automatic. The problem is not giving our relievers enough breathing room.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
agreed. Krod didnt do his job but they beat krod fair and square.
There's Always '09
6/19/2009-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
On a positive note, Maine’s setback wasn’t too serious.
Kingman 26
6/19/2009-9:49am at 9:49 am (UTC -4)
I agree Mr Bill.
You are right.
What are the Cards and Yanks going to do to us in 7 games next week?
mrbill
6/19/2009-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
Two more massacres coming… lol
darknova306
6/19/2009-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
Lots more beer to consume, cause these are gonna be ugly series.
darknova306
6/19/2009-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
We were held in check by a rookie scrub with a 6+ERA. That makes it harder to stomach than the Castillo game.
No excuses.
QnsNative718
6/19/2009-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
IMO, nothing comes close to the stomach pain than Castillo’s gaffe, well maybe that game we blew against the Phillies last summer when we were up by like 6 runs.
Also keep in mind that if Roberts doesnt life his head to quick on Tues. nights game, we’ll be talking about getting swept by the Orioles.
QnsNative718
6/19/2009-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
*lift
darknova306
6/19/2009-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
I was expecting us to get swept coming into this series. They went to sleep against the Pirates, so I figured that mediocrity would continue. Even losing 2 of 3 is embarrassing. Gimme a break.
mrbill
6/19/2009-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
What are your expectations for the next 10 games? I want to be positive so I am going to say 5-5. lol
darknova306
6/19/2009-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
The next 10 are 3 w/Rays, 4/Cards, and 3/Yanks, right? I’d say we’re looking at 4-6. Cards own us, Yanks spank us, and we manage 2 against Tampa. Just don’t have the optimism for .500 ball anymore.
mrbill
6/19/2009-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
Your prediction is realistic. who am i kidding…
mrbill
6/19/2009-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
No excuses when you have a lead in the 9th and there are no errors. It is hard to get on K-Rod but a good team puts a bad team to sleep when having the chance. The mets could not do that.
darknova306
6/19/2009-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
Honestly, I’m not going to get on the team for blowing a lead with their closer. He blew 7 last year, I expect him to drop the ball for us once in a while.
You’re right, a good team puts a bad team to sleep when having the chance. Everyone knows how flawed and mentally weak our team is, so they have no problem believing until the very last out that they can beat us.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
but are we a good team right now?? At 60% strength…
mrbill
6/19/2009-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
Nope, we are not a good team right now. The mets find SO many ways to lose games is unbelievable….. games that even with this cripple lineup should have been wins.
darknova306
6/19/2009-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
With better fundamentals, we’d have enough extra wins to be ahead of Philly. That’s not the fault of being 60% strength. Stop using injuries as an excuse. There’s no excuse for playing the way we do. Other teams watch how we play, have a good hearty laugh at us, then come out and play a full 9 innings against us.
mrbill
6/19/2009-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
True. The mets are not intimidating not because half the lineup is on the DL but because of the sloppy baseball they’ve been playing.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
@ dark
Im not using it as an excuse but pr will look at it that way. If you manager and coaches dont have fundimentals, then how do you expect the players to have them. They have had this issue since the start of the year and nobody seems to care because the mets are injured. I think the injuries are more of a distraction than the real problem with the mets. The lack of managerial presence by manuel and lack of baseball fundimentals that can be coached but that would require the coaches to know what the fundimentals are.
darknova306
6/19/2009-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
Your point is 100% right, Dirty. Absolutely excellent.
There's Always '09
6/19/2009-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
where is all of the clamoring for Aubrey Huff? He has 9 homers now, with a yankee stadium porch in right field. I’ll pass.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
i still want huff…boy can still hit and he is lefty.
There's Always '09
6/19/2009-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
We need to come up with a logo for a Get Prince Fielder rally. We can call it the “Get the (insert logo here) Artist Currently Known As Prince” rally. Here is a possible logo:
http://img90.imageshack.us/i/fatstickfigurezu4.jpg/
darknova306
6/19/2009-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
Hahaha! Nice.
QnsNative718
6/19/2009-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
lmao..wtf.
mrbill
6/19/2009-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
LOL… good one ’09
There's Always '09
6/19/2009-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
How about Ollie showing some progress in Florida. That’ll be a welcome site.
Omar needs to make a trade for a starting pitcher (to replace Maine) and get a big time bat. Any shot Livan makes the All Star Game? He has been nothing short of fantastic.
darknova306
6/19/2009-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
His ‘progress’ was three innings against kids in extended spring training. Yeah, his knee is pain free, but he’s still the same loser headcase he always was. I don’t expect them to figure out what’s going on with him this year for a long time to come. If he comes back sooner and gives us some decent performances, I’ll be happy and surprised, but I expect nothing from Ollie this season.
mrbill
6/19/2009-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
I did not trust Perez from the beginning. Injured or healthy he is too much of a liability.
darknova306
6/19/2009-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
This is why I love Metstradamus’ website: the countdown until Ollie’s contract expires.
Only 864 Days, 12 Hours, 51 Minutes, 38 Seconds left….
mrbill
6/19/2009-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
ONLY… ha ha ha
stickguy
6/19/2009-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
1st, and I know it won’t happen, but Jerry really needs to go. Either the team is palaying sloppy as a reflection of him, or that’s the best they can do, and how else are you going to find out?
Only downside is the PR hit. A new guy can’t be worse, since Jerry brings nothing positive to the table!
Kingman 26
6/19/2009-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
I completely, totally, and utterly agree.
AND, the ONLY thing we can do to even try to change things is changing the manager.
We are not getting Holliday or Lee, and we have no idea when the injured cavalry will be coming over the hill, and how they will perform when they do.
There's Always '09
6/19/2009-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
Pardon the pun, but 1/2 of the injured cavalry is already “over the hill”.
Kingman 26
6/19/2009-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
HAHA!! Thanks for that one!
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
he is getting the sympathy card because the mets are so undermanned. Trust me, he is stiting very comfy right now. They have no PR foothole to justify firing manuel.
stickguy
6/19/2009-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
Well, heis counting on the big finish. If he gets most of the DL guys back and still loses, he is done (he already put his eggs in that basket).
Especially if they continue to play uninspired, sloppy ball. Without the injuries, the focus will shift to where it really belongs now.
I honestly think for this year, what you see is what you got. Omar will get some help (maybe a Huff or wiggy) by taking on salary, but nothing major.
They liked the team at the beginning of they year, and will just wait to see what it can do when it is actually on the field again.
stickguy
6/19/2009-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
OK, my morning ramble, which IMO should be turned into a post, after somene does the research!
I got frustrated last night, and said I gave up on hope for the season (and got roundly chastised, by many people, some of whom seem to have joined me this morning). That was really a knee-jerk reaction, so I decided to think it through rationally (as much as I can muster).
So, I came up with a few givens:
-early season, the Mets had some flaws, but a bunch of guys started hot and the got a few games over .500
-Since the injuries, they have been a sub .500 team, especially since they started playing good opponents (but also overall)
-currently 2 over, the strong probability is they will be below .500 at the ASB (and I am assuming no help from the DL in that time, since none seems imminent)
- This team, even best case getting guys back, will still have some holes and flaws, will probably still give away games playing bad fundis (they have all year). And not all of the DL guys are coming back, or will be great when they do.
So, the question becomes, how many games can they win post-ASB, and how many will they need to make the playoffs? Let’s say 88 for division or WC.
if they are 3 under at the ASB, and there are ~ 75 games left, they would have to go 46-29 (.613) the rest of the way to hit 88 wins (which still might not be enough).
So, the questins become:
- how many teams below .500 at the ASB make the playoffs?
- Will the Mets stay at .500 or not by then?
- how much of an improvment will you see if/when (and when will) the DL guys come back?
- Is there an outside addition that will make that big of a diffrence?
- Even at full strength early in the year, where they a .600+ team?
Frankly, Omoar needs to be going through this same analysis over the next few weeks before decideing what to do. I’m fine with a slary dump hail mary, but am not comfortable with trading real prospects for a long-shot low % play.
I still want the Mets to win, and hope they have a ’69ish finish, I just don’t feel comfortable that it is realistic.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
as a chastiser that has not shared your views the following morning ;p
I think your right on everything you said. I think omar will do something but will be close to the deadline. These guys are playing w/o a single margin of error. That pressure will bring out the best in people but eventually will make em break imo. Feliciano has been used more than half of the last 10 games and so has Krod. Both being asked to do their jobs w/o any margin of error. At first they did this admirably but they are starting to crack at their jobs. Will they break i dont know but Jerrys managerial skills are non existant right now. I would be bold enough to say Wright/Cora and Johan run the team.
stickguy
6/19/2009-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
Im not worried qbout them cracking, just their arms falling off!
Feliciano wore down last year from overuse and became innefective. Jerry is well on his way to buring him out again.
The more I see of jerry, the less I like him (and see what the White Sox fans saw in him).
by the deadline, you wil lhave a much clearer idea of what the team is, and what hpe there is for it. If they are rigth at .500 and 8 games out of the division and WC, plan for 2010 instead of doing something stupid.
dirtysanchez
6/19/2009-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
very true. At the ASB we should have a better idea of what omars focus should be
trs86
6/19/2009-11:11am at 11:11 am (UTC -4)
Somebody would REALLY have to get hot for us to play .500 ball and then be 8 games back in both the division and the WC.
stickguy
6/19/2009-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
with so many teams bunched up, odds are at least a couple will.
and teams already over .500 won’t have to do much to be 8 over 5 weeks from now.
trs86
6/19/2009-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think it’s that easy. Those WC teams are just as bad as we are.
darknova306
6/19/2009-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
Well, we play STL and MIL later this month, so they could combine to bury us in the WC.
trs86
6/19/2009-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Hard to bury us in one series.
darknova306
6/19/2009-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
Alright, bury is too strong. It’s 7 games against those teams combined, which could lose us a significant ground.
mrbill
6/19/2009-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
So significant we won’t be able to come back from it.
trs86
6/19/2009-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
I think we have to remember we are returning home and we have played well there this year. Hopefully that will swing things a little our way.
stickguy
6/19/2009-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
Well, they are playing good teams until the ASB, which if I can count is 22 games. So 8-12 leaves them what, 2 games under .500 at the break?
Unfortuneately, that seems to be about how well they are playing right now.
Maybe the Sybils will surprise us though and actually win a few and go 12-8 and keep their head above water.
Real crucial stretch though if they want to avoid digging a hole they won’t be able to climb out of.
trs86
6/19/2009-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
They go 12-8 and they are much more than head above water. They are most likely leading the WC.
darknova306
6/19/2009-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
But we’ve been playing awful on the road. We need to pick it up at least a little on the road, we can’t just rely on winning at home, we only play half our games there.
trs86
6/19/2009-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
Can the Phillies rely on only winning on the road?
darknova306
6/19/2009-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
That’s a good point. They’re as bad at home as we are on the road, and their biggest bat is gone for a couple weeks. I don’t know what their problem is at home, but I’d think they can figure that out easier than we can figure out how to win on the road.
darknova306
6/19/2009-11:25am at 11:25 am (UTC -4)
I’m with you Stick. I think the only realistic chance we have is to play smarter fundamental baseball, and I think that falls on the manager/coaches. Since Jerry’s not getting fired, and he sounds like he’s given up in his press conferences, I’d say our chances are slim-to-none. We’d need another black cat situation, but I don’t see that, either. :p