I hate sacrifice bunts. I really do. Ever since I was a kid, it seemed strange to me to give up an out. When the pitcher does it, I can live with it, and it actually seems like a good idea. But otherwise, I detest it.
There have been studies done in the majors, Japanese baseball, and US college baseball which all show the unsurprising result that when a non-pitcher bunts a man over from first and gives up an out, this actually does not in fact significantly increase the chances of scoring. It actually decreases the chances of scoring more than one run in the inning.
Why then, does it still happen? I would guess for the same reason that in the 1970s pitchers were largely judged by wins and batters were largely judged by batting average. Today, pitchers are much more accurately judged by WHIP, and other stats which evaluate a pitcher’s true effectiveness far better than W-L record. Steve Trachsel was not very good in 2006 when the Mets scored 6 or more runs in 11 of his 15 wins, while Johan was fantastic during that stretch last year in June when he pitched about six games in a row without a win largely due to anemic offense and offensive bullpen performances.
Back in the 1970s, OBP was not on baseball cards, and today it is starting to even pop up in ESPN’s online box scores. As much as I fondly remember Dave Kingman from my childhood, the folks who compare Adam Dunn with him are really incredibly off base. Dunn’s walks and OBP put him in an entirely different class from the very one-dimensional Kong.
The moral here? Old habits die hard in a conservative, change-hating game like baseball. It is the wise, forward-looking manager or GM who can take advantage of knowledge like this. Davey J was looked at somewhat suspiciously with his early use of computers, and Billy Beane’s habits have become somewhat commonplace. Jerry should stop all of the bunting. Of course, I am not talking about bunting for hits, which I wish Jose would do more. And I wish they would use the squeeze more, which requires that players be really good at fundamentals like bunting. That is another argument for another day.
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Met fans really need to lay off of Luis Castillo. He was not that bad last year, and he has been fine, if not pretty good, this year. The Yankee game was an unmitigated disaster, but we have actually seen some serious character from Slappy since that play. His fielding has been very good this year, and has been excellent since that play. His mortified look—while taking every question like a stand-up guy—after the play, as well as the broad grin which has been his reaction to the fans’ cheering when he catches popups at home now, has shown a guy who not only does not run and hide from a play like that, but has come right back and continued to play well after it. And he has had fun with the situation as well. After all, despite the context, I am sure Luis prefers hearing cheers to boos.
Castillo’s OBP has been around .380, and as always, he scores runs when he plays. And his fielding has been very good. He is not going to win any more Gold Gloves, steal 50 bases, or hit .330, but he is so far from being one of our serious problems this year, that it is becoming really ridiculous when people use him as a whipping boy.
Castillo’s contract is indeed exorbitant, no doubt about it. But which of us would turn our employers down if they offered us much more than we were worth? Castillo is simply not the disaster that Samuel, Baerga, Alomar, and Matsui were in Queens. Checking the numbers clearly shows that.
As the eminently wise Case Street says, “Support your second basemen in Queens!â€
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I was ready to give up before the Cards series. Yes, I was a pessimist for a couple of weeks.
I allowed negativity to invade my Met world, even after I spent a large portion of the winter arguing on another nameless site with the folks who mocked the Wilpons, who mocked Omar, and who criticized everything about this team.
I had gigantic hopes for 2009, and for a week or so this month, I forgot how much I enjoy Met baseball.
The number of injuries we have seen has to be at least somewhat due to the methods of our training and medical staffs, and I sincerely believe that Jerry is far from ideal. I honestly think that a manager with the skills of Gil or Davey or even Bobby would have a few more wins with this team this year, and maybe one or two more each of the last two years. These issues must be examined in the offseason.
But still, here we sit, three weeks down and two to go in our five-week hell stretch, and despite going 7—11 so far, we are 1.5 games out of first. We have gained 1.5 games and 1 in the loss column on the Phils during this span. With our star first baseman, shortstop, and center fielder on the DL, with our number three and four starters having missed significant time, with our setup man having pitched injured for two months and then going under the knife, and with bench players missing time as well.
I feel like a traitor for losing the faith, and I have regained it. I loved watching the horribly miserable Mets finish last or next to last every year from 1977—1983. Yes, expectations were significantly higher this year, but I still love following this team. The Phils’ recent ineptitude has certainly played a large role in our incredible staying power, but so have some other factors.
Wright is not homering, but his BA and OBP and doubles are all at career-best levels. His clutch hitting has been fantastic. His leadership seems to be seriously blossoming.
KRod has been as good or better than anyone we have ever seen close in a Met uniform. It is only a few games, but Omar may have struck gold with Nieve. After all, the Astro scout who signed Johan signed Nieve. And how many fantastic pitchers have come through Houston the last 30 years or so? Santos has been fantastic. Feliciano has been excellent. Livan has been as good as we could have hoped. Cora has been what many of us thought he would be. Sheffield has regained some of his fearsome plate presence. Omar is responsible for all of this.
So despite the horrific injuries, we are still very much in the race, and we have indeed had some nice surprises from unexpected places.
As others have pointed out, we will have perhaps several in-season acquisitions this year, and they might indeed include several of Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, JJ Putz, Billy Wagner, John Maine, and that lefty free-agent starter that some of us were happy to see back. OK, three of us: me, MetsFan4Decades, and Ollie himself. And any or all of these will come with the miniscule cost of sending an Argenis Reyes or an Elmer Dessens back down where they belong.
This season is far from over, and could indeed still become something very, very special. We may have the horses to win a 1973-style dogfight, and here’s one voice who has returned from a short visit to the land of pessimism. It is not a fun place, and I shall not visit there again.
13 comments
saltygary
6/28/2009-1:43pm at 1:43 pm (UTC -4)
“I feel like a traitor for losing the faith”
There is nothing wrong in not having faith in this team, they’re lousy. If they were good every year baseball wouldn’t be that fun to watch. The up and downs are what keep me interested. To be a traitor is to say “screw them they suck I’m gonna start rooting for the Cards because their good all the time”. Now if we were Pirates or Royals fans it is perfectly acceptable to have a “second favorite team”. For Met’s fans we need to deal with the hand that we are dealt. This team has always been about torturing the fan base and providing us with those amazing moments. And those moments wouldn’t be so amazing if they were consistently good. I wouldn’t of cried like a little girl when Franco was hoisted up on the players shoulders after the 2000 NLCS if he didn’t play on some atrocious Met’s teams.
So they suck this year, it’s OK to say that. Just got to keep watching and keep crying. I only hope that these injuries don’t fog the GM in making moves over the off season. The last thing I want to see is him holding pat thinking everything was fine and it was just the injuries.
rustyjr
6/28/2009-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
awesome opinion piece kong -I as you know was/still am (up to an extent ) very positive and supported the moves this off season and who knew that all these injuries would occour – I was weary of resigning ollie – i was on the record with that but I felt murph would do the job in lf – we were all wrong about that – I just feel omar and the front office needed a little more foresight when they stopped at fixing the bullpen – yes the sheffield aquisition is to an extent paying dividends ( knock wood) but when an abreu or ibanez coulda been had for bargains – we shoulda went for it ( a year in the minors wouldnt of killed murph i now feel) I admit my faith in this team is being tested but I will not stop rooting for this team whether they fall out of contention or not. look im a old school guys and i wouldnt know whip to a cat and 9 tails lol but i understand looking at stats as compared to guts instincts and i hate non pitchers non sacrificing – unless they are rey ordonez lol
btw kong u r old enough to remember clendennon was he a big star when he was in pittsburgh like stargell or was he more of A Ray Knight that was a firey player? i never heard much about him before he joined the mets in 69
trs86
6/28/2009-2:15pm at 2:15 pm (UTC -4)
Thats the Kingman I remember, glad to have you back.
trs86
6/28/2009-2:17pm at 2:17 pm (UTC -4)
•In response to the Nyjer Morgan/Lastings Milledge rumors, Olney says Washington is determined to purge their system of dysfunctional players.
•Olney suggests Jason Bay is on pace to land a 4 year, $60MM or 5 year, $70MM contract.
1st on Milledge: He he he, not even the Nats can put up with dysfunctional Milledge.
2nd, yes please on Bay, I would EASILY give him either.
rustyjr
6/28/2009-2:18pm at 2:18 pm (UTC -4)
millidge will either end up like Carl everett – many teams in not so many seasons – or he will be cut by the nats and fade into obscurity
stickguy
6/28/2009-2:24pm at 2:24 pm (UTC -4)
I wouldn’t mind having Bay back, but the years (not the $$$) scare me. Isn’t he 32/33 ish now? Primed for a decline.
trs86
6/28/2009-2:26pm at 2:26 pm (UTC -4)
30.
trs86
6/28/2009-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
Holliday 29.
jonnyballgame
6/28/2009-2:17pm at 2:17 pm (UTC -4)
“I feel like a traitor for losing the faithâ€
Its sort of refreshing. We’ve been on one intense roller coaster ride for 3+ years. We all needed an emotional break from this team and I can’t continue to put my sanity in the hands of Jerry and Omar. I really have lost faith in the organization. Which is so wrong but it feels so right. I laugh instead of cry now. I mean you really have to see the comedy in all of this. With arguably the most talented crop of players this organization has ever seen and probably ever will see, they had 3 months during the 06 season where they were playing like the best team in baseball. Now we are we are stuck in limbo because our GM doesn’t know a damn thing about how to handle this situation. And how do the Wilpons respond.. They give him a 3 year extension. And then Omar compounds the issue by giving Jerry an extension after the collapse. Sometimes it feels like the Mets are just happy filling seats..
stickguy
6/28/2009-2:22pm at 2:22 pm (UTC -4)
I pretty much agree with 3 of your 4 opinions (guess which one is the outlier?)
I never give up faith or hope. That is, I always have faith that they will continue to be the Mets, and will play 162 games a year in the Pinnies, or one of the 9 poor substitute uniforms.
Do I always think (or have faith) that they are going to win the division or make the playoffs eveyr year? Nope. And it doesn’t really bother me (or at least, ruin my life) if they have an off year and miss the playoffs.
This year would be a perfect example of a Shoot hapens year, and I will simply look for bright points (DW, Neive, whatever) and come back strong for 2010. And that is also why I dn’t believe Omar should gut the farm and do anything crazy in a run for the playoffs this year.
Hell, unless I kick the bucket in the next year (always a possibility), I got time to wait. And I would rather see a competitive team every year than a 1 shot and blow it up deal.
I don’t, however, feel as positive about slappy. Yes, he has had about as good a year as one could hope for. But other than his OBP, he brings nothing to the table. Average at best D, and zero power (is it possible to have a slugging % lower than your OBP? If so, Slappy can do it!)
Maybe if the rest of the team was strong at offensively, they could cover for him, but he can’t be a regular on a team that eneds production up and down the lineup. He is really like a pitcher in that, in a key spot, a pitcher will just challenge him and blow him away. Especially hitting lefty.
I really hope they can replace him witha more well rounded 2B for next year. If anything, the arguement against Kingman (1 dimensional) applies just as much to slappy, it’s just a different dimension.
trs86
6/28/2009-2:25pm at 2:25 pm (UTC -4)
The problem is finding a more rounded 2B to replace him and dumping his salary. Yes you could find one but is it worth 12 million and that players salary for marginal results?
metsfan4decades
6/28/2009-3:19pm at 3:19 pm (UTC -4)
Ah…such is the life of a Met fan. I don’t have ‘back up’ teams. It’s the Mets, all Mets, and nothing but the Mets.
I adjusted my thinking several weeks ago from ‘should win the division’ to underdogs, when the players started to head to the DL on some fast moving train. Now, I just take it one day at a time, no more than one series at a time. I’m still holding out hope we can stay close until after the ASB and hopefully start getting some players back.
Mr North Jersey
6/28/2009-3:45pm at 3:45 pm (UTC -4)
I here this talk about feeling like a traitor and I have to wonder if maybe we are using the wrong word maybe the word we really should be using is faith.
When 2009 season began I had a lot of faith that this year would be the year we would finally do something special even though I had doubts as to how smart it was to sign Ollie over Lowe or how good Murphy really would be in 2009 after only a sample glimpse of him in 2008 or the fact that we had no way to tell what Church or Delgado would bring to the table in 2009.
All those question marks not withstanding I still felt we had the core of greatness to push us through the year Santana, Pelfrey, Krod, Putz, Feliciano, Wright, Reyes, and Beltran.
Now here we are 37-36 1.5 games out of 1st place having been hit with a shyt load of injuries for a season that is just about half way through and yes my faith is lacking. I look out on that field and see Cora, Evans, and FMart playing where Beltran J. Reyes, Delgado, should be and God help me but my faith is lacking.
Traitor is not the word that comes to me though a traitor is someone that betrays to put it plainly and I have to say I am still as Die-Hard a Mets Fan as I ever was I will never cease and always will be a Mets Fan I believe.
Do I have faith we can win a W.S. this year? As presently constituted it looks bleak but that is the great thing of being a Mets fan so long as you stand by them in these hard times you never know what October may bring so you hold on to that idea until you can rebound from your doldrums for lack of a better word and regain your faith in the idea your team can win a W.S.
In closing I just want to say there is a lot of baseball yet to be played and history says it is not beyond the realm of possibility that this team can be a major player come October heck this team has yet to put it’s best foot forward so hang your hat on that when you find your faith being challenged and
LET’S GO METS BABY!!!