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Jul 07

Morning Open Thread

“He (Lyndon B. Johnson) wanted to see poverty, so he came to see my team (1964 New York Mets).” Casey Stengel

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57 comments

  1. sabermetrician

    I’ve noticed people who defend Omar always say “he had very strict budget contraints.” While that is true, it doesn’t take much to see how he could have better built this team. I love Cora, but just to save money consider the following:

    $1.7 mil Tatis
    $2.0 mil Cora
    $12.0 mil Perez (for three years)

    instead could have gotten us:

    $.85 Eckstein
    $.5 Baldelli (plus bonuses)
    $15.0 Lowe (for 4 years)

    Essentially a wash. I’m not saying it had to be Eckstein and Baldelli, they’re just examples, but we could have fit Lowe and been way better off. Not to mention that we could have had Abreu for a measly $5.0 mil.

    Abreu .303/.407/.443 6 HR, 51 RBI, 44 R, 17 SB … sure looks a lot better than Murphy.

    I have been a huge Omar supporter until this season. We had a lot of needs and we could have filled a lot of those needs this offseason. He chose to fill ONE of those needs, K-Rod and Putz. While the K-Rod move is a no-brainer, the moves not made are quite glaring.

    1. saltygary

      They’ve tried to get Eckstien for a couple years and haven’t been able to pull it off and frankly Baldelli has been half dead for three years. Omar would have gotten killed for making that deal. It also seems like Lowe played the Mets to get a ridiculous contract from Atlanta. Lowe is a steady .500 pitcher and 15mil especially in the currant economy on a aging pitcher was a lot. If he did get those guys instead of the other 3 maybe they would be 2-3 games better? Who knows.

      The money to Tatis was a lot but you can look at it as a bonus for last season. If Cora hasn’t been here I couldn’t imagine where the team would be and the Mets were handcuffed with Ollie. The contract sucked, he wasn’t their first choice and they thought they knew what they were getting. After Ollie all that was left was scraps. It turns out it would of been financially better to get the scraps but when are Mets fans content with bottom feeding. That is generally the critics biggest hangup with Omar.

    2. dirtysanchez

      i love how people can just FORCE players to come here…what if lowe just didnt want to play for the mets?

      1. sabermetrician

        All reports were that he wanted to come to NY. His talk about staying in the NL and returning to the northeast strongly suggest that. I can’t believe that to this day people will defend the Ollie over Lowe move. It was a no-brainer then and it’s a no-brainer now.

        Saltygary – you suggest we’d be 2 or 3 games better. So 1 or 2 out? I like that better than what we are facing.

        1. stickguy

          every FA suddenly wants to come to NY. WOnder why they often don’t end up here?

          Oh yeah, Boras playing games!

          But, from reports, he was free to come here for 3 years. Omar rightly though wasn’t willing to go 4 years at 16+ million.

        2. QnsNative718

          I respect Omar and the FO’s decision to not give in and overpay like the Braves did and what the Yankees always do, nontheless, we’re still a bad team.

        3. udontmesswthejohan

          It’s a no brainer now yeah, but at the time, there was room for debate. Lowe is much older and got more years and money. If Ollie hadn’t gone completely off the deep end this year, it’s not nearly as obvious a decision. Plus I don’t see how guys like Baldelli or Eckstein have any different affect on this team. They are different payers thats all, not better.

          1. stickguy

            Besides, Lowe had a pretty good start in April, but has really tailed off. Last I checked, I think his numbers were Pelfryish.

            Better than Redding? Sure, but don’t makie him out to be this super stud SP that would have us 5 games in front.

            Where Omar really blew it was inking ollie instead. Should have done Lowe, or “scraps”, since the scraps some of us were harping on Oar getting were guys like Wolf, Marquis (dang..) Javy Vazquez, and some others.

            Not flasy, but ST contracts for way less money. Plus you would have gotten some draft picks out of Ollie leaving.

          2. sabermetrician

            I agree that going from Lowe to Ollie makes it look worse. If you move on from Lowe and go to a guy like Wolf you’re still better off. It’s just time that Omar goes.

          3. sabermetrician

            No one suggested they were better, they were cheaper. Did you read the comment?

          4. udontmesswthejohan

            Ok, my bad, but still. So they are cheaper, and you want to spend that money on Lowe instead of Ollie. That still doesn’t fix this teams problems. I just don’t see the point of throwing out names 6 months later knowing what we know now.

          5. sabermetrician

            The point is that it’s time for Omar to be gone. We need to get rid of him and start building for a couple of years down the road.

        4. dirtysanchez

          im not defending the ollie over lowe move but what if lowe was just using us as leverage considering the braves wanted to drop 80 mil on AJ before he signed with the yanks. Boras and lowe knew the braves had money and needed a starter but were definatly NOT going to drop 80 mil on lowe. So they just used the mets necessity for another starter to bump up lowes price and since the braves needed another starter and the mets were a division rival, they were not going to be outdone. Boras and Lowe knew that the braves needed to beat the mets offer and get a starter and thats exactly what happened. Lowe was not stupid enough to say i dont want to play for the mets but he was going to go to the highest bidder and the braves were forced to be just that.

          Even with lowe….our problems ran deeper than SP. Can you imagine our defense behind a ground ball pitcher….

    3. udontmesswthejohan

      Jesus…Eckstein. Really? Oy Vey, I’ll take Cora over Eckstein any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Give me a break dude.

      1. sabermetrician

        The difference between Cora and Eckstein would be little to none. And Eckstein is just an example of how Omar could have saved money. $2.0 mil for Cora? I love him, but there were a ton of bench players signed for less last year.

        1. udontmesswthejohan

          I would disagree there. I get where you are coming from, $2mm is a lot for a back up, but you know as well as I that he has earned his money this year. Plus, I think he’s a little better offensively than Eckstein and definetly gives you more defensively at his point as eckstein only plays 2B.

          Anyway, just frustrated today.

    4. CaseStreet

      Pitching hasn’t been our problem. So even if we had Lowe, we’d be in the same place.

      1. sabermetrician

        Have you seen Redding pitch? If Lowe is there, no need for Redding to start.

  2. stickguy

    I would like to see some better (real?) players up to replace the AAA level guys that are overmatched. Tey might not be great, but at least the Phils put out experienced vets like Dobbs and Stairs when they need a sub.

    Of course, if they had to play daily for 2 months in place of Howard and Ibanez, the Phils would suck too!

    Anyway, 6 games left until the ASB. Have to assume the Mets will be about 6 back by then 9could be worse if the Phils and Mets continue to play the way they each have been.

    Then, we can see how close (my guess? Not at all) Beltran, Reyes, Delgado are to coming back. If none of them are closer than a couple of weeks at best (and likely not 100% or seriously rusty when they do), where are we?

    Is 6/7 out and in 4th place at the ASB in or out?

    I would wager real money that the porbability of making the playoffs (based on histroy) of teams 7 out in 4th at the ASB is probably in the 5% range? Anyone wnat to hazard a guess?

    Might be beating the dead horse here, but I stil ldon’t trust Omar with making a good trade (or evaluating talent), and I really don’t trust that he is committed to only making moves for 2010+ now.

    So, go ahead and get a jump start on the off season. It can only help now too, but unfortunately will require an emergency funding bill from the Wilpons. Dang.

  3. saltygary

    You know it’s bad when names like Matt Stairs and Rocco Baldelli are getting thrown around.

  4. CaseStreet

    Anyone besides me having trouble answering the following question:

    Who are the Mets position starters?

    1. stickguy

      simple: Jerry’s gut, and Tatis.

      Just don’t ask me what position they start at!

      OK, since you asked:

      3B – DW
      SS – Cora
      2B – Castillo
      C – platoon of S&S

      Now it gets dicey:

      1B: flavor of the day, maybe a Evans/Murphy platoon?
      RF – Church, unless he is in CF?
      CF – F Mart, unless he is hurt or playing elsewhere or benched?
      RF – Sheffield, on the 2 days a week his legs allow him to play the field?

      1. udontmesswthejohan

        Ugggghhhhhhhh. This year sucks. I was getting on the train yesterday and I was like, “Well the fall will be here soon”…it’s freaking the first week of July.

  5. charlie_s

    By the way, do you know which team has a worse record over its last 10 games than the Mets? No team. 2-8, baby!

    1. sabermetrician

      I’m so disgusted with this team.

      1. charlie_s

        it’s tough, man. soooo tough. you can’t even watch with hope until the injured-six return.

  6. Joe R

    It just sucks that it seems, and things can change quick, that we were almost able to execute our plan of staying within a few games back until our guys came back. It looks like this could slip away with only 2 series left before the break. Im hoping the number is 4 back going into the 2nd half but it looks like our injuries have caught up to this team and they are struggling big time. I hope we arent looking at 7-8 back because for the most part we were able to hang on until the last few days. Yes Philly is the main reason due to their losing. Philly is going to get hot soon and you have to imagine put together a win streak of 6-7 games. I hope it doesnt come before the break!!!

    We may have just seen the low point of the season and the series when this year is over that dealt the final blow. I can see every critics pointing to the Philly series as the breaking point and not beacuse we were playing our division rival. Because we scored 3 runs at Citizen Bank Park against their awful pitching with 1 coming from Nieve. A joke of a park that a high school team would bang a few out of!!

    Lets Go Mets I hope they surprise me like they did against the Cards and beat the Dodgers!!

    1. stickguy

      the phils I think are officially hot again. Mets took care of that.

      And I still say the ASB is just a nice 3 day respit. No one of importance is coming back to the team in Atl. after the break.

      I’m not even sure 8/1 is going to bring us much. Maybe Wagner, possibly Beltran?

    2. dirtysanchez

      guys…its the first half and this division is AWFUL!!. Philly has kept the mets/marlins/braves still in the race and it will haunt them imo. We are only a few games out of first. We have the whole second half to make up the ground with a healthy team…we were playing at our worst the first half…we will be playing with our best in the second half and hopefully that will play the differance..

      1. stickguy

        Dirty, better wipe those rose colored glasses off. I think you have tomato juice on them!

        4.5 back in 3rd (almost 4th) is starting to be on the fringes of “still in the race”. But, I will give yo uthat.

        Problem is, the Phils and Marlins both had to hit a real stinker period to stay that close (and the Braves can’t seem to get out of their own way).

        Problem is, both the Phils and Marlins are getting hot now (and the Fish have gotten healthier, hence the drop to 3rd place.

        So, making up ground in the 2nd half is not going to be that easy, since the teams we are chasing almost have to play better too, and the Mets are not going to have close to a healthy team for much, if any, of the 2nd half.

        Even if they all showed up on 8/1 (and discounting the question of how productive they wil lbe initially), that is not 1/2 the season, it is 1/3.

        ANd unless you are chasing the Mets, making up 8 games in 2 months, over 2 or 3 teams, is not an easy task.

        1. dirtysanchez

          and teh marlins were not hot to start the season…then what happened…THEY COOLED OFF. Were the phillies not hot when ibanez was in the lineup…what happened when he got injured…THEY COOLED OFF. If we were 18 out like the nats then i agree with you its over but 5 games…it can be made up imo. We still have an opportunity to get the job done and that is thanks in part to the phillies. Yes the fish and phills will get hot, but they will cool off. Philly could have ran away with this division months ago but they didnt. Just because you may have given up hope does not give you the right to try and bring me down with you or make sarcastic remarks stick. I really liked your posts but no need to say im wearing rose colored glasses because the fact is that 5 games is not insurmoutable when you realized that dispite the may and june that the marlins and mets had respectivly, we are still within reach of the division. Im sorry i have not given up yet…and i wont until we are mathimatically eliminated from any shot to make the post season.

          1. stickguy

            just a joke dude. You can be as optomistic as you want to be. All part of being a fan.

            And no, I haven’t given up hope. Heck, you can hope for a miracle (it worked for the Phils and Rockies in 2007).

            Problem is, they were considered miracles for a reason, since they just don’t happen that often.

            I just was giving my perspective on some of your assumptions (like when the team would be back and healthy).

            And in the spirit of good will, I will even avoid any more snarky comments!

          2. dirtysanchez

            lol sorry stick…i guess just some lingering metsblog defensivness lol

        2. DNDJohan aka kistics

          Remember 2007? 7 Games up with 17 to go? Anything can happen.

          1. dirtysanchez

            remember the rockies in 2007…and our division is comparable to that of their division back then. People want to give up fine..but just remember we are only 5 games out after going 9-18 in june! The phills could have burried the division along time ago and that will come back to bite them.

          2. DNDJohan aka kistics

            I agree. I’m not going to give up hope. Unless the Phillies get Halladay…. then I’ll be looking for them to fight for the WC, which maybe even harder.

          3. dirtysanchez

            agreed..given how bad our division is, our only shot will be the division..idk if they will have enough wins to qualify for the wc

  7. stickguy

    Let’s start a scorecard:

    I want Castillo gone along with Jerry, and no amount of stats will change my mind.

    Sabes wants Omar gone at all costs, even if it means paris W. becomes the official (instead of acting) GM.

    Anyone else?

    1. saltygary

      as much as I don’t like Castillo he has been the last of the team’s worries. He has 2 years and a bunch of money left. If he is dumped then we have to pay his salary and pay for a new 2b. Suck it up and improve the Corner OF’s where money won’t be wasted.

      If they can score Bobby V. then dump Manuel if not let him work out his last year. It would be nice for the Met’s to not have to pay for 2 managers every year because the fans need a target to focus on.

      1. wannybackstra

        C’mon. Manuel is more than just a target. At this point it is indisputably clear that he is incompetent.

        1. DNDJohan aka kistics

          Agreed.

      2. dirtysanchez

        I think they jsut need to clean house with everyone from the last few years and start over. Get a REAL hitting coach, not memorabilia from the last time we won a WS. Get a real pitching coach. Get a REAL manager who knows how to manage. Get a competant medical staff.

    2. DNDJohan aka kistics

      I really think Castillo has done a good job this year. He has come thru at some clutch situations and has been a solid defensive 2B. He has added value at #2 and #8 spot as well.

      Sure there are other 2Bs that are better options, but I don’t mind keeping him if he’s going to keep this up the next 2 years.

      1. wannybackstra

        Castillo has played about as well as could be expected. He’s not real good but at least he’s playing to his ability.

        1. DNDJohan aka kistics

          Agreed. I have no complaints on our 2B spot.

          1. stickguy

            he has been OK, probably at the top of his limited game. But, almost zero chance it will ever get better (and 1 knee tweak away from being done).

          2. DNDJohan aka kistics

            His numbers and performance will get better with the healthy lineup.

  8. stickguy

    1 more prediction:

    Just like the Mets “cured” the Phils (rollins in particular), they are going to “cure Cueto (mr. 9 runs in the 1st) on Saturday.

    I predict a 4 hit CG from him.

    1. saltygary

      Besides last night Cueto has been great. This is his current record including last night:

      INN W L S K BBI ERA WHIP
      104.3 8 5 0 79 35 3.45 1.19

      Here’s Johan:

      INN W L S K BBI ERA WHIP
      109.3 9 7 0 107 36 3.29 1.23

      1. DNDJohan aka kistics

        If Johan hadn’t walked all those pitchers his WHIP would be under 1.00

    2. DNDJohan aka kistics

      LOL! You are so right!

  9. stickguy

    this is going to be a very interesting month. 4.5 back, 3rd place.

    So, a little hot streak (hey, the Padres won 10 in a row, right? Could happen!) and the Phils/Fish stumble again, they could hit 8/1 in or within a couple games of first.

    Or, they could play .350 in July too (about what the current talent level will support) and one or the other(or both) could stay hot, and the Mets could be 10+ back by 8/1.

    So, assuming Omar is not doing anything big until close to the deadline, they could be buying for a stretch run (+ calvery), just going with the calvery, or in position to sell.

    If they are going to tank entirely, I would love to see Omar try to “take out the trash” and get some more bodies for the minors. PLus give the “kids” a chance to get some more experience (that can only help).

    Hey, some team will be desperate enough for pitching to take on Livan. An AL team need a DH (sheffield?) Tatis sure (not likely). Need a catcher? Schnieder is available. Castillo, that would be a miracle that should get Omar another extension.

    Heck, maybe a real hail mary, and some team bites on Ollie (of course, this does mean he will win a cy young next year, but c’est la vie!)

    1. DNDJohan aka kistics

      If you want to throw out the trash, who do we put in next year? Who will pitch the #4 and #5 spot if you get rid of Ollie? Just because you are out of the race this season, you can’t dump everyone but the core. Who will replace those guys next year?

      You just can get so much via trades or FA. And you don’t even know these guys you sign or get will work out in NY. And you can’t trust your minor leaguers to fill in next year. That doesn’t make sense.

      These are moves that KC or Pitt would make. Not NY.

      1. stickguy

        All of the guys I suggested as being eralistic to move are on 1 year deals, and should not be back next year (sheff, Livan, schnieder). They are all “filler” that gets churned every year.

        Besides, Omar could choose to resign any one of them after the season if he wanted to.

        Castillo? That deal has been roasted by damned near everyone since it was signed. At best, he has been “ok” this year, and has zero upside for th enext 2. And it frankly wouldn’t be that hard to replace him with someone at least as productive overall (or the holy grail of some, Hudson).

        Ollie was more tongue in cheek. I don’t expect him to go, but given how the last off season went, if he isn’t going to finally turn the corner, you might as well clear salary and go with a ST guy like Garland or Marquis.

        But, I don’t expect him to go anyplace, but do you really think he is indespensible?

        I hope you aren’t suggesting to retain everyone on the roster (even the backups and fill ins) just becasue they are already here?

        1. DNDJohan aka kistics

          I’m not suggesting that we retain everyone on the roster. But your logic of selling every role player out there is not the way to go. Plus you would hardly get decent prospects for them.

          Would you give one of your good prospects for half year rental of Schneider, Sheff or Livan? I don’t think so. That move will only be for salary dumping. But they don’t get paid much either. So these sell-offs don’t make sense at all. Not to mention the trust you will lose with the fan base, hence less revenue for the team. Unless they are mathematically eliminated, I don’t see Omar selling off.

          With Castillo, if Omar can move him and his entire salary, I will call him the best GM in the league. NO ONE will take his entire salary.

          1. fongy2

            Agreed!
            Prob w/
            Omars roster is theres no one
            to move
            out.
            After what happened
            the last two yrs
            he should have brought in new corner OFers and Hudson doing whatever
            was needed to move
            Castillo
            &Church
            while having
            the likes of Murph
            play the yr @
            AAA learning
            a position.AND talk about wasted $
            Redding,
            Ollie& all theAAA
            OFers he
            signed!

        2. fongy2

          How many of us
          thought Marquis
          would be a nice
          p.u.as #5?
          I can remember
          many a posts
          very positive
          toward that move. or Garland and/or
          Wolf.Instead we
          got Ollie for
          3 more yrs.
          Great! And if
          Omar wasn’t so
          fixed on Murph
          in LF,couldnt
          we have taken
          Pierre’s contract and not have given up much?

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