It is too early to judge definitively, but we have finally seen and heard things which seem to show that the organization realizes exactly how awful the current predicament is.
We stand eight games behind the Phils, and six behind the WC leader Giants, but there are unfortunately six teams between us and the SF Cain/Lincecums (the rest of the team is 29-37). When one looks at the NL WC race, one cannot help but think that this is not exactly the AL WC race. No team between us and the WC seems remotely as good and as solid as the Yankees or the Rays. It is hard to picture us leapfrogging all of those teams ahead of us, but is anyone really that impressed with the Giants, Marlins, Cubs, Braves, Astros, etc.? I think not.
I am not saying that it is time to start saving money for playoff tickets, but as some of our more levelheaded brethren on this site often state, there is a lot of baseball left.
Jerry used the suicide squeeze last night, a great play when you have a reliable bunter like Castillo, and I am not sure when I last saw a Met suicide squeeze. This is a great play, and was the first time I can remember recently where I really had to take my hat off to Jerry. I would definitely love to take my hat off to him again and again until it starts falling apart, so I do think this is a good—small, yes, but good—sign. We have little to lose right now and everything to gain by using every weapon at our disposal, and with speed on the bases and a player like Slappy who can be counted on to lay down a bunt, this is hopefully a sign of things to come. Let’s steal more, sacrifice less, squeeze when we can, and take some risks. We literally have nowhere to go but up.
I also liked Jerry’s commenting and joking about Sheffield having to have surgery. I am sure the front office did not appreciate it, but it is about time someone verbalized what everyone outside of the organization seems to realize is a very strange—to say the very least—situation when it comes to players’ health. We have been through it again and again, and my opinion certainly has not changed, but it must be refreshing for the players to know that Jerry is aware that something is wrong, and it certainly heartens me as a fan to see an embryonic sign that at least SOMEONE with the Mets knows that there is something amiss.
I like the Francoeur trade. A lot. I really like it. OK, not as much as a talk radio guy likes Inge, but I like it a lot. I liked the Milledge trade and still do. I still think Milledge is the second coming of Ryan Thompson—i.e., a guy who looks good, makes some fine plays occasionally, but will go from team to team and never really make it. Church, however, is soon to be 31 and other than one pretty good 530 PA season in Wash., he has never come close to being a really productive everyday player. He cannot stay healthy, he is very streaky, and he swings at pitches that my 2 year old niece would take. And she generally swings at everything.
Francoeur’s OBP is indeed really scary, but he is 25, and has certainly put up a couple of seasons more productive than anything Church has accomplished. And Frenchy has played every day every year thus far in his career. I would argue that, especially considering our recent health disasters, this may be the most important issue. Church may be loaded with potential, but he will soon be 31, and is often hurt. Frenchy is 25, and has actually had a couple of productive years playing every day. I say this trade was a really good one, which, should Frenchy recover what he had in his first two full seasons, could be a great one. Finally, consider next year’s lineup: He might hit 6th, depending on offseason moves, which means he will potentially have loads of RBI chances with Beltran and Wright on base in front of him. He also might often be pitched around, which, should he develop a tiny amount of patience, could mean a great improvement in OBP.
Dumping Redding is another really good sign. No, it is not dumping Slappy’s many more millions, but Slappy is having a good season. Jettisoning Redding now is great because he is absolutely awful, and it shows, again in an embryonic but hopeful way, that the team is ready to start eating money to improve. Lugo is not a star, and surely will not be signed to a pricey long-term deal as some of the Nattering Nabobs of Negativity have suggested as a club to bash Omar, but Cora is not an everyday player. He is a very valuable bench guy, and if Jose is gone for another month or longer, adding Lugo instantly improves the everyday lineup somewhat, but improves the bench tremendously by returning Cora there, where he belongs. Lugo is aging and in decline, but has had some good years as an everyday player, and will come very cheaply, a la Shef. This is, in all likelihood, another good move, albeit for the short-term.
With twelve days left until the trade deadline, it is very hard to assess what we might do. This team should not be sellers, and even if they were so inclined, we can’t move injured stars, and trading Wright, Johan, or KRod is out of the question. Maine’s injury and Pelf’s rather disappointing season lower their value dramatically, and Ollie and Slappy’s contracts make them next to untradeable. Sending a package of prospects somewhere for a star took a huge hit with FMart’s 86th injury of his young career.
So where does that leave us? Not in an enviable position. We would basically have to create a basket of our three or four or five next best prospects to land a Halladay, Holliday, Oswalt, etc, assuming they are even available to us. However, the financial issue could once again be our savior. Only the most negative and unreasonable fan could think that Omar is not busy working the phones like mad, both to other GMs and to the Wilpons, seeing what is available, and how much salary Fred and Jeff might be willing to take on. We must remember that no one thought we would get Johan, and we did, largely due to financial reasons. Delgado’s and Wagner’s salaries come off the books after 2009, and barring a miraculous return to form by JJ, so will his. Combining this with the hopeful desire of the Wilpons to finally play some meaningful October games might just put us in position to land someone who we are not expecting to be available to us.
Overall, this has surely been a horrifying last month. One of the worst in recent memory, and I have a long recent memory when it comes to the Mets. I still feel that we need wholesale changes in our medical and training staffs, and I really hope that we see Showalter or Bobby V or even someone like Tim Teufel in Jerry’s office next year. But I still feel that the “the core†is outstanding and can definitely win with a healthy group of complimentary players around it. Unless we see excellent finishes by at least two of Pelf, Ollie, and Maine, I would have to say that another starter is our top need for 2010. But Jose, Wright, Beltran, Johan, and KRod fill perhaps the biggest needs a team can have, for an ace, a closer, a good leadoff hitter, and two very productive middle of the lineup guys who excel in pretty much every area of the game. We need better players to fill out the rotation and the bottom of the order; we do not need to change “the core.â€
I have to say that as dispiriting as this season has been lately, I have not totally given up hope. No one is tearing up the NL other than the Phils and the Dodgers. We probably will miss the postseason for a third straight extremely disappointing season, but we must take a breath and realize that 2009 is not the last two years. Omar is NOT to blame. Injuries are. Maybe we will put together a 10-game winning streak late in August, and feast on the Marlins and Nats for once in September, and create the possibility of a miracle finish. Probably not. But regardless, we have seen some signs that the organization realizes that things are amiss, and we will very likely see more of this in the coming two weeks.
Maybe it is too late for 2009, and maybe this is getting to be a broken record, but we still have a great young nucleus, and if we do not become healthy enough to save 2009, we should as fans be willing to give Omar—if not Jerry and the medical/training personnel—one more year to cobble together enough support for “the core†to finally get back to where we were before the 9th inning of Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.
9 comments
stickguy
7/19/2009-4:07pm at 4:07 pm (UTC -4)
where did this Lugo for Redding rumor come from? is that serious? Assuming each team eats salary, pretty much a wash, but Lugo is really bad now, but so is redding!
Nice summary though. I was reading the faith and fear in flushing book over the weekend. I had forgotten how far out (behind many teams) they were in 1973.
If anything, this year (if it turns out well) cold come closest to ’73, just with the WC instaed of the division crown at the end.
They had a ton of injuries that year too, and started cranking in September when the offense came back healthy.
So, keep in sight of the leaders, win what you can, and keep trying to put some better quality on the field.
WHo knows, maybe they pick up 6 games again in September?
and like kingman said, they aint chasing the ’29 Yankees here.
Kingman 26
7/19/2009-4:19pm at 4:19 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks Stick; agree on the 73 parallels, expect that team had a much better rotation.
And the Ledger has had stories about Redding; but we would be releasing Redding and then signing Lugo…not a trade.
stickguy
7/19/2009-4:24pm at 4:24 pm (UTC -4)
Did not see that Lugo got released, but I know it was being disucssed since no one would trade for hi (or his slaary)
gategem
7/19/2009-7:14pm at 7:14 pm (UTC -4)
I have been looking for Seaver, Koosman and Matlack but I don’t seem to be able to find them.
rustyjr
7/19/2009-4:32pm at 4:32 pm (UTC -4)
great piece kong – im not off the band wagon – just frustrated – philly it seems is gaining momentum – i just hope the giants free fall and we can capitalize on it !!
jaydh
7/19/2009-4:40pm at 4:40 pm (UTC -4)
The mets could lose 10 in a row, then win 1 game and peoples’ perception will change into thinking they have a shot still. The talent just isn’t there to turn this thing around. It’s good to be optimistic although I think its pretty clear this team isn’t going anywhere despite not be eliminated yet.
Mr North Jersey
7/19/2009-5:45pm at 5:45 pm (UTC -4)
As a Mets Fan it’s obvious that as this season progresses most will see things in 2 completely opposite ways.
Your eyes will tell you that what you see on the field is what to expect but your heart tells you to believe in the “What If” variable. “What if you get some of you players back?” or “What if Minaya pulls off a major trade?”
Heck, it has been done before you tell yourself right? then the rebuttal to that is yeah but it was done with better teams overall right?
Look if you would have told me that the 2006 St Louis Cardinals would win the World Series I would have said no way or the expansion Florida Marlins would win a W.S. or the Rockies making the post season in 2007 I would of said no way but they defied the odds.
So here we are in 2009 and the Mets are on the verge of falling off the face of this earth having fallen way short of their expectations and you start to hear “No Way they are making the postseason” in July. How do you deal with it? Do you look at it with your eyes or do you look at it with your heart?
In my opinion either choice is fine the only difference is one belongs to a realist while the other belongs to an optimist.
Which are you?
steveo
7/19/2009-6:02pm at 6:02 pm (UTC -4)
A realist.just one that won’t stop watching or hoping what does that make me ?
metsfan4decades
7/19/2009-6:12pm at 6:12 pm (UTC -4)
I’m in this category also. Realist but will keep hoping until we run out of hope.
Nice read, Kingman. The only thing I really don’t agree with is the Frenchy trade. Reading about him, he thinks OBP is overrated. What are the odds someone on the Mets can do what the Braves couldn’t when it comes to his swing?
We shall see…