Aug 09
EXTRA!! EXTRA!! TRDMB Front Page Vol. 13
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MLBTradeRumors
- East Links: Braves, Nolin, Wheeler, Wada
- Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Walker, Hughes, Vogelsong
- The Best Spring Training Additions Of 2013
- Quick Hits: Beltran, D'Backs, Montero, Draft, Cashner
- AL Central Links: Indians, Moore, Schneider
- NL East Notes: Utley, Amaro, Rizzo, Braves
- Managerial Notes: Mattingly, Nationals, Roenicke
- Mets Links: Davis, Wheeler, Bargain Signings
- Dodgers Notes: Ethier, Mattingly, Puig, Pederson
- Red Sox Sign Rafael Perez
34 comments
njstuckintx
8/9/2009-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
Maybe 8 is enough. With the proper level B bench players and supporting cast, maybe it can be.
Take the Dodgers: Billingsly, Manny, Either, Hudson, Martin, Loney, Broxton, Sherrill, and then your supporting cast types (Wolf, Blake, Furcal, etc.)
Cardinals, White Sox, Tigers, even the Phils fit somewhat to that mold.
Taking the Yankees out of the mix on principle, and the Sox as They are closer to 9-10 difference makers, you look at all the other major contenders and they all have roughly 8 difference makers.
Granted, other’s difference makers may trumph ours, and an argument could be made to say Ollie, Francoeur and Pelfry aren’t true difference makers (which would leave us at 5 difference makers and by default a non-contender). But I guess that would support my argument that needing 8 is enough. We can’t even make a 6 pack at this point.
proudmetfan
8/9/2009-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
A Carl Crawford or an Orlando Hudson could help. But who knows, maybe eight is enough.
sabermetrician
8/9/2009-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
Absolutely not when two of the players you’re relying on are:
6.38 ERA, 1.873 WHIP, 1.04 K/BB
and
.292 OBP, .375 SLG, .6 UZR/150 (i.e. can’t hit and is an average defender)
trs86
8/9/2009-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
What about this one? .292 .324 .448 .772 with 19 RBI in 25 games?
Mr North Jersey
8/9/2009-4:01pm at 4:01 pm (UTC -4)
Uzr is the biggest rambling of misguided attempts to define a player that I have ever seen. To use uzr to determine if a guy can field is a joke.
64ZONES, NOT USING ZONES IN SOME AREAS OF FOUL TERRITORY, NOT USING A PLAYERS ARM, ETC, ETC, ETC Uzr fluctuates way up 1 year way down the next.
Francoeur’s UZR/150 IS 0.6 YEA HE IS BAD
Beltran’s UZR/150 WAS 0.9 in 2007 I guess he was bad also.
Plz gimme a break
Mr North Jersey
8/9/2009-4:03pm at 4:03 pm (UTC -4)
Now ask me what I really think.
sabermetrician
8/9/2009-7:58pm at 7:58 pm (UTC -4)
.9 doesn’t mean you’re bad, it means you’re slightly above average, and yes, even Beltran can have a year where he’s just slightly above average. But remember that’s slightly above average for a more difficult position. Francoeur is not a good defender, whether you use this metric or any other (including just your eyes).
Mr North Jersey
8/9/2009-8:09pm at 8:09 pm (UTC -4)
Somehow I feel you missed my point.
Which is UZR is not a fair reflection of a player’s ability.
Is Frenchy a good fielder?
-to each his own on that one to me he is adequate out there and there is a chance he can be more of an offensive force than Church plus has a history of playing more games than Church.
I will take that for now and if they can improve upon it then by all means do.
sabermetrician
8/9/2009-8:39pm at 8:39 pm (UTC -4)
No I understood your point. I disagree, but I understood it. That’s why I say use any metric that you choose to in evaluating Francoeur’s defense. I go too far in saying that he is a poor fielder, cause he’s not, he’s an average fielder. I hyperbolize to correct people who say he’s a great fielder.
Do I think Francoeur has more upside than Church? Yes. Do I think he has a bigger downside? Yes.
The thing is with this guy, he doesn’t get on-base at a good rate. And his power is overrated too. His slugging since joining the Mets is .448, that would be good enough for 36th in the NL. Not bad, but when adjust for ballpark, etc, it’s .422, league average. He’s a career .425 slugger, so that’s what we should expect. Is he horrible? No, but he’s average at best.
Too many people are trying to make him out to be the savior or part of the core. He’s not that, he’s a role player who would probably be better suited as a fourth outfielder.
BTW, I mean no disrespect in disagreeing with you. I always respect your opinions.
Mr North Jersey
8/9/2009-8:55pm at 8:55 pm (UTC -4)
1st I never took anything you said as a sign of disrespect so we are cool on that front. You are simply expressing your opinion as am I.
2nd I agree that anything more than a good role player is asking too much of Frenchy but let’s also agree that it takes good role players to win a W.S. so if that is what Frenchy is that is fine by me.
The coming months are going to be full of debate as to where this franchise is headed and who is going to lead the way. If you thought all the Manny stuff was bad well let me tell you that will be nothing compared to what’s ahead.
So it is good that we can have these discussions without it becoming disrespectful or personal I just hope most will adopt this mentality.
sabermetrician
8/9/2009-9:02pm at 9:02 pm (UTC -4)
I agree that the coming months are going to be a maelstrom. I’m excited, but pessimistic.
I agree with your point that a WS winner needs good role players (the Philths are a perfect example). I agree that Francoeur can be part of that, and quite frankly I hope he is. But if we are going to fill too many positions with player’s of Francoeur’s ability we’re not going to win.
I worry because what if you have:
C – Role player (or even Molina as most suggest)
1B – Murphy
2B – Castillo
3B – Wright
SS – Reyes
LF – Role player
CF – Beltran
RF – Francoeur
Then you have to have strong pitching, because that lineup is okay at best. I don’t think we need to have an all-star at every position, but if we’re manning three power positions with players who are league average power threats…yikes.
So I still believe ‘eight is not enough,’ or nine or ten, if your ninth and tenth are Castillo and Molina.
sabermetrician
8/9/2009-9:07pm at 9:07 pm (UTC -4)
NJ – I gotta run. Let’s pick this up some other time though. Good discussion.
Mr North Jersey
8/9/2009-9:25pm at 9:25 pm (UTC -4)
Yes it will definitely be one hell of a ride.
So many variables to consider. I only want one thing from ownership and that is if it turns out that because they cannot significantly improve from within or via trade or sign what is considered a Type A player.
Then be honest and clean house there is no sense in paying Santana, Krod and Ollie the dollars they are getting to be a .500 club.
If they(Wilpons) are in such a financial hole I’d much rather do a blockbuster trade for some Type A Blue Chip Prospects that can help us in 2011 and beyond than bring in a DeRosa or players of that caliber.
I mean i think with a little luck in getting Beltran back healthy and with a key signing like a John Lackey to go along with a trade for possibly a bat like a Carl Crawford.
It is not beyond the real of possibility to think a rotation of Santana, Lackey, Pelfrey, Perez, and a 5th can go along with a Krod, Feliciano, in the pen and a lineup of Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Frenchy, Crawford and mix in the rest can be a playoff contender this time next season. Or a similar combination of talent.
steveo
8/9/2009-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
Eight is enough but just not those eight olie has no right being in that photo niether does pelfry at least not yet I’m thinking for this team eighteen is enough the way these guys go down
trs86
8/9/2009-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
He picked the guys that have to come back next year baring really unforeseen circumstances.
metsfan4decades
8/9/2009-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
Clever….
We need a solid SP, LF with a bat and a catcher next year. Probably another lefty specialist as well. And since I’m not thrilled with Green at all, is there a AAA guy ready we can call up for the BP next year?
This going with the mindset that Reyes, Beltran and Murph (at first) are all back and back healthy next year.
I think Pelf will get better. I know Maine is a question mark. I’d put Nieve in the mix too. Niese should be up here to stay as well. I’d much rather go with youth and developing pitchers than take a chance again on an aging or just past his prime pitcher that will cost millions.
And yeah, Ollie is what Ollie is. Flashes of brilliance with performances that just make you want to tear your hair out. He has the potential to be solid though and win us 14 games. Either way regarding Ollie we’re stuck with him at least another year as no one is taking on that contract.
metsfan4decades
8/9/2009-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
Or, maybe try something out of the box like go after Prince Fielder. I think I’d go all in on that if we could trade for him from Milwaukee.
steveo
8/9/2009-1:51pm at 1:51 pm (UTC -4)
No more high priced free agent pitchers please a trade for one yes. But throwing money at pitchers please no more.I’m headed to petco today to see our high priced gem hopefully throw a gem and hopefully our offence can score more than he can give up, wish me luck in petco as it is never a friendly place for a met fan
metsfan4decades
8/9/2009-2:22pm at 2:22 pm (UTC -4)
I wish you, Johan and the Mets luck…
We’re like what? 0 for 8 or 9 now in Petco park over the past two years?
Today would be a good day to win a game….
gipperpdx
8/9/2009-2:48pm at 2:48 pm (UTC -4)
Who are we kidding? Not even close to enough! And, with the talk of the Wilpons cutting payroll…this team won’t compete for a championship again for at least a decade. 2006 was the year for this era, and they failed in the crapshoot that is the playoffs. Period.
Also, who says Reyes and Tron are coming back or will be anywhere near the players they used to be??! Tron is talking surgery that will keep him out til 2011…Reyes, let us not forget, was leg injury waiting to happen when he was a prospect and his first few years in the majors, and now he seems to have reverted to form.
Mr North Jersey
8/9/2009-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
Can I ask where is it written that Beltran won’t be back till 2011?
As far as Reyes is concerned over the last 4 seasons out of a total of 648 games he could have played if he had never missed a game he has missed a total of 15 games. So the idea that he will somehow revert to his 1st 2 years now 4 years removed when all he has been for the last four was a iron horse is shall I say,
stretching it to be nice.
gipperpdx
8/9/2009-6:36pm at 6:36 pm (UTC -4)
It is not written as fact, but was mentioned just this last week that Beltran may (indeed it was called a “near certainty” he will) need microfracture surgery that will have him out most or all of 2010. “Beltran has decided to accelerate the pace of his rehab, hoping to come back towards mid-August, matching up closely with Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, and Billy Wagner. That’s an infusion of talent no team will be able to match with trades, but it might also be too little, too late as the Mets continue to slip. Beltran made the informed decision based on the near certainty that he will need microfracture surgery and could miss much, if not all, of the 2010 season.” [Baseball Prospectus's Will Carroll, as quoted here: http://blog.nj.com/mets/2009/07/beltrans_recovery_schedule_rid.html ]
It may not happen – but it might.
As for Reyes, yes he has been much better on the injury front, but that is no guarantee he will continue to be healthy. I wish I shared your optimism and hope you are right and both return strong as ever. But I wonder, as a fellow Mets fan, where your optimism comes from????
That said, even assuming those two are back and productive, the 8 mentioned are nowhere near enough. We have one aging ace and 4 fives. No power at LF or 1B and a hole at Catcher. Fill in with a high number 2 starter, some serious power from LF or 1B and a serviceable catcher along with some pen help, then yes, we may be getting closer to enough. Anybody think the Wilpons have the will (or the cash) for that?
Mr North Jersey
8/9/2009-6:55pm at 6:55 pm (UTC -4)
You see this is how rumors get started the line that says “Beltran made the informed decision based on the near certainty that he will need microfracture surgery and could miss much, if not all, of the 2010 season.†from Will Carroll is his opinion he nowhere quotes who told him that he will miss most if not all of 2010.
When a medic says this then let’s plan accordingly.
I do not say he will play in 2010 i just say before we start taking opinions from baseball prospectus as fact let’s at least back up their sources with something more legit.
As for Reyes you are right there are no guarantees and you can apply that to anyone in baseball.
Reyes body of work suggest when he is healthy he is a horse and has proven it for 4 years. What else do you want? Guarantees? There is no such thing in life my friend I am sorry.
The question of is 8 is enough if everyone is healthy is legit hence why i did the frontpage.
I agree we have problems to resolve I just ask do we resolve them without removing the eight I mentioned? Or do we need to get rid of someone from the eight I mentioned to fix it?
trs86
8/9/2009-7:12pm at 7:12 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, as I said yesterday, pure speculation. Just like the idea of what the Mets have to spend.
gipperpdx
8/9/2009-7:22pm at 7:22 pm (UTC -4)
It may be speculative..but at this point, the way the Mets handle injuries…I tend to look at these things as trial balloons…getting the story out there before it is official. Maybe it turns out to be nonsense…but do you REALLY trust the Mets FO on injuries?
You will note I never said he WILL miss 2010, I indicated “who knows” if Tron and Reyes will be back and as good as ever….which seems a reasonable assertion.
As for payroll…who knows, but I don’t like the vibe coming from the Wilpons these days. Let us hope they at least use all the $$$ coming off the books. Personally, I’d feel better if they added a silent partner with an infusion of lots of cash, or simply sold the team to a better owner, preferably one without a hard-on for the Dogders, Giants, or any obaseball franchise other than the Mets.
gipperpdx
8/9/2009-7:25pm at 7:25 pm (UTC -4)
As for getting rid of the eight – sure, for the right piece(s) nobody will cry over losing Ollie, Frenchy, or maybe even Pelf. The key is to build around the core – both with a good bench (I think they have a pretty good one when they don;t have to play every day) and filling in SP and power holes.
Mr North Jersey
8/9/2009-7:36pm at 7:36 pm (UTC -4)
So do you feel Mets can’t win with the above 8 even if they add for example Jason Bay and John Lackey?
The right piece(s) well what are the right piece(s) in your opinion?
Mr North Jersey
8/9/2009-7:31pm at 7:31 pm (UTC -4)
Trusting the Mets FO and taking an opinion from Will Carrol as anything other than what it is an opinion are 2 distinct things.
You said “Tron is talking surgery that will keep him out til 2011″ so I asked you where was it written that he won’t be back and you produced someone’s opinion.
Big Difference.
My issue is perpetuating an opinion as fact.
gipperpdx
8/9/2009-9:37pm at 9:37 pm (UTC -4)
Then I just didn’t make it clear I was reiterating opinion. Nothing is fact until it happens.
As for the pieces – sure there are pieces out there that can help – but do we think Omar will bring them in? Or even have the budget to do it? Throwing out names is an exercise in mental masturbation if the answer to either of the above questions is no.
I tend to think this FO will act more along the lines of what Hebs says below…somebody to fill only one hole well, then fill in with over the hill cheapos and reclamation projects and cross our fingers. Can that work? Anything is possible (i.e. it is possible it will rain gumdrops tomorrow), but I am not laying any money on it.
Mr North Jersey
8/9/2009-9:56pm at 9:56 pm (UTC -4)
LoL mental masturbation good one LoL
An opinion is fine but you have to consider the source that’s all If Beltran’s Dr says in his opinion Beltran won’t be back till 2011 that is fine he is doing so based on his professional experience. You understand right? Will Carrol saying it means shyt sorry Will but it does.
Maybe you are right maybe the club will do nothing at all.
Maybe they will sit on their laurels and say just wait for the cavalry to arrive in 2010.
Maybe they will sign one Type A free agent and that’s it.
But How bout let’s see it happen 1st before we run screaming the sky is falling(not that you are mind you) and then see if they can do within reason what it takes to make the team competitive.
I mean Omar may not even be here come 2010.
GravediggerHebner
8/9/2009-3:18pm at 3:18 pm (UTC -4)
Like so much in life, it depends. These 8 players could be enough, but they would have to be healthy for the vast majority of the season and perform at or close to optimum levels. They would have better odds of success if they were surrounded by more viable major league talent. Not superstars, but good players. Players that you might have heard of before, players that have an actual track record of decent performance, and that are not oft injured or on the backside of 35.
Unfortunately the current front office has shown nothing previously to make one believe that this might happen for 2010. What seems more likely, based on actual previous events, is that one star quality player will be acquired to fill one hole on the team, and the remaining areas of concern will be addressed by a volume of low priced maybes and the hope that one or more of those maybes will overperform.
As a hypothetical example (feel free to change the names as you see fit), the team might acquire Matt Holliday, Josh Bard and Bartolo Colon. Will that be enough? It depends.
gipperpdx
8/9/2009-7:25pm at 7:25 pm (UTC -4)
Now, THAT sounds like our Metsies glorious FO!
Mr North Jersey
8/9/2009-9:05pm at 9:05 pm (UTC -4)
You know, that for that has been said here on this post there is one thing I was hoping someone would ask and I am admittedly a little saddened that no one has even referenced it.
And that is who is the figure in the center square? Not that it’s hard to figure out.
Or is it? LoL
gipperpdx
8/9/2009-9:51pm at 9:51 pm (UTC -4)
Kenny from South Park or ET were my first two thoughts.