“Hope,†as Andy once said to Red, “is a good thing; perhaps the best of things.†Clearly, Andy Dufresne was not a Mets fan.
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Now that it’s all over, let’s take a short peek at what might be the road to salvation—or at least Wild Card contention—for 2010.
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Folks have a lot of opinions on the health issues, and someone on here recently suggested that perhaps some of the many injuries are related to players ceasing steroid usage. A very interesting thought. Jose, Beltran, Delgado, Putz, Johan—that’s a lot of very successful and seemingly fantastically conditioned players to all go down within a couple of months of each other on the same team. Were some or all of them users? Were Ollie’s 2004 and 2007 successes not really just Ollie and his precious arm and head but some other things as well? We probably will never know.
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Regardless, there has to be something lacking in overall team conditioning and fitness philosophy. Each of the last two spring trainings has seen a plethora of veteran regulars hurt early and often. Both years the team got off to slow starts. They simply should and must find a way to improve on this. To me, revamping the medical/training staffs, and placing a perhaps unprecedented emphasis on fundamentals in the spring, are the least expensive, easiest ways to begin the rehabilitation of this clearly ill franchise.
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We need a number two starter. Pelf has talent, but may be a number three or four, and no more. The team simply has to find a legitimate number two or a co-one such as Halladay or Oswalt, even at a high cost of players/dollars, and even if it is the only significant offseason move. Nothing about the rest of this team suggests it can overcome Johan and four question marks. Recent years seem to have shown that even when this team has serious offense, we still cannot get over the top. Hence, not markedly improving the front of the rotation is a sure recipe for continued frustration. If Halladay or Oswalt are available in the offseason for a basket of Met minor league treats, it must be done.
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With JJ and Wagner out of the picture, the pen again becomes a serious issue. Yes, we could roll the dice, hope for a healthy KRod, and really good years from Stokes, Feliciano, and maybe Parnell (who, let us remember, has been consistently shelled for about 3 months now, in all roles) and a minor league surprise (Kunz?) But this is asking for serious trouble. Omar needs to find someone to fill the role JJ was penciled in for this year. Someone who can be counted on to nail down the 8th, get the occasional save if necessary, and sometimes get an out or two in the 7th. We can leave the 6th and 7th to what we have now plus maybe a moderately expensive FA, but we must have a better arm for the 8th.
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The offense is the toughest area to gauge, as returns to form from Jose, Wright, and Beltran instantly make the offense at least decent, and at the same time make complimentary players like Castillo in the two hole and Francoeur maybe hitting sixth, more valuable as well. In retrospect, the pro-Dunn/Abreu folks were probably the most correct this offseason, judging from the seasons they have had, how much they would have helped an anemic, power-starved lineup, and how well they would fit in on the 2010 team.
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What we need is a first baseman or corner outfielder (we should probably look for FMart to be given every chance to earn one of those corners) with a good OBP and at least 25-30 HR power. Next year’s team is not going to be a slugging group, so OBP will be of paramount importance all over the lineup. If the Nats, who are most certainly not averse to dealing with us, make Dunn available for prospects as a salary dump, we need to look very seriously at acquiring him.
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Santos looks like a decent major leaguer. What he has done this year projected over a full season does not thrill, but it certainly is acceptable. A player like Molina is not what this team can afford to gamble on. A 35 year old catcher with lots of miles on him cannot be considered the answer. With 2009’s health issues, players like Francoeur who are young and who play every day are inherently more valuable to us, after what we saw this year. Save the money, try very hard to find a Castro-like player who can play fifty games and produce, hope Thole is ready in 2010, and spend the dollars elsewhere.
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Opening Day? Reyes, Castillo, Beltran, Dunn/Fielder/Pena/AGonz,Wright, Francoeur, FMart, Santos, Johan?
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Yes, a lot of Ks in the three through six spots, but a lot of power as well.
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And regarding this week’s debate, Jose indeed must bat leadoff. Checking out leaders in OBP indeed shows quite clearly that many top leadoff men have OBPs right around Jose’s. The .400+ OBP guys are generally the Pujolses, Wrights, Utleys and Fielders. The top OBP positions are populated by a very surprisingly low number of leadoff hitters. Jose’s speed, extra base power, and tendency to make things happen are ideal in the leadoff spot. That is where he most clearly belongs.
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Maybe Murph as a sub for several positions? Maybe Shef stays as a mostly bench player and OF against tough LHP while FMart eases his way in? Evans or Pagan as 4th OF? Tatis was great last year but must go, and Cora cannot be counted on after being hurt all year. Omar must find at least a backup C and middle IF.
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This coming offseason is primed to be very different and much more intense than recent years. After 2005—2008, every year, most probably figured that we were one player or two away from more of those elusive meaningful October games. Maybe not so this offseason.
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The Opinion is still very much on the side of optimism when it comes to Sluggin’ Dave Wright, Dancin’ Professor Reyes, and Always Slidin’ Beltran, but we need a lot to go right in the next 7 months to finally try to recapture what we seemed to have going in 2006.
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The Core all need to be healthy again, and with the mysterious, ever-lengthening time on the DL that Jose and Beltran have experienced, it is not a sure thing that they will be what they were the last few years. Wright may pick right back up, but beanings like that have had serious impact on others. Johan should be healthy again, but he is not that young anymore, and his injuries are accumulating.
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Thus, unlike 2007 and 2008, we not only have to be concerned with offseason improvements and players maintaining consistency, we have serious issues with the simple matter of players’ health. This is why spring training 2010 is going to be of paramount importance, watching everyone get—and hopefully remain—healthy.
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Omar is in probably the toughest spot of his career. He is going to have almost certainly limited resources, has a lot of holes to fill, many serious question mark players, and just about all of his stars coming back from serious injury and/or surgery. We thought that 2009 would be the make or break year for Omar and this group, but injuries have given them a one year reprieve. Everyone in the Met organization should know that 2010 is, very clearly, going to be a pivotal year. Missing the playoffs for a fourth straight year with the payroll and starpower we have will surely mean the end of The Core and Omar and a serious rebuilding effort. Let’s hope at this time next year we are thinking about playoff pitching scenarios instead of which Core member gets traded first.
13 comments
darknova306
8/30/2009-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
One quick comment on Pelfrey: if you buy into the Tom Verducci thing, Pelf’s innings totals for 2007 and 2008 were 152.2 and 200.2 respectively (that includes minor league). A jump of 48IP. Verducci puts the acceptable threshold at no more than 30. Not saying that’s Pelf’s problem this year, but it could be a contributing factor.
trs86
8/30/2009-5:01pm at 5:01 pm (UTC -4)
I am sure it is one of a few reasons. I also think we put to much pressure on him and he has had too many voices in his head.
dirtysanchez
8/30/2009-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
lol last year we said would be the toughest of his career(omar)….this year is defiantly going to test his worth
darknova306
8/30/2009-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
I’d say that Cora could be counted on next year as a solid backup. His injury was from a slide, not from some chronic reoccurring ailment.
I agree that we need a solid #2, but I really don’t have much confidence in the rest of the rotation after that. Ollie is garbage to me, Maine is a complete unknown at this point with the constant injuries, so I’d say we need a #2, slot Pelf at #3, then get a #4 and #5 in addition. That’s not happening, but it’s the only way to have a competent rotation in my mind.
As a realist, I have to admit that Murph just doesn’t look like an everyday player at the plate. I like how far he’s come with his defense at 1B, but we need real offensive production there. I also don’t see F-Mart as an everyday OFer anymore. Just can’t trust him to stay healthy (though that could change, but still he’s been very discouraging).
gipperpdx
8/30/2009-1:51pm at 1:51 pm (UTC -4)
Other than a small quibble with the Cora analysis, I cannot find anything here to disagree with.
But, can Omar come close to filling those needs and implementing these changes? Will the Wilpons let him?
stickguy
8/30/2009-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
Any piece that has a Shawshank quote is starting out right!
Lots of pints here. Can’t say that I remember all of them (I thought I was wordy…j/k Kong)
anyway, all seemed reasonable, but I look at the pitching slightly different. They do need another 1-2 solid pichers, but I don’t seem them making a (big prospect) deal for a “stud”. Certainly not one that makes the kind of $$ as Oswalt (no sure thing either) or Hallady.
I would rather see them fork out the $$ for lackey, instead of giving up major prospects for Oswalt, and paying him just as much.
They might also take a risk on an injury guy (Harden?) or a 2nd tier guy (Marquis (ugh), Millwood, or even Myers, who is a nice age at least). Certainly cheaper options.
There should also be considerable competition in ST for the 5th, and even 4th, spot. Maine, Neise, Nieve, are all possibles to be in the mix for SP or BP. Winner to rotation, losers to the pen.
For the Offense, I actually like Pena if he comes for scraps as a salary dump. Fills a need, and on a 1 year deal.
LF? Will not be F Mart. I really liked the Murton pick up idea, and can see a ST competition there too (carter, Murton, etc.)
Budget wise, I think they get 1 SP (~10mill +/-) and 1 bat (another 10m+/-). The bat could be Pena, or say Figgins.
That means the back of the rotation is cheap (neise/neive say), and 1 of 1B (murphy?) or LF (Carter?) will be manned by a cheap guy. and that should be fine.
C? No Molina, unless they somehow get him for 1 year deal (he does an Abreu and falls to them).
Anyway, reyes/castillo/wright/beltran/pena/frenchy/Carter/catcher is not a bad line up, and certainly enough to make the playoffs.
and from Santana/(Lackey or harden or myers)/pelf/ollie/maine/neise/neive +?? they can piece together a rotation.
oh, my big quibble is, Omar also needs to plug the gaps while preserving the upper level talent in the farm. 1 more year to develop, and they could actually be somewhat top heavy.
trs86
8/30/2009-5:00pm at 5:00 pm (UTC -4)
My fear is going into next year with another round table in LF. We know nothing of Carter and who knows what Murton can do for a full year.
metsfan4decades
8/30/2009-5:01pm at 5:01 pm (UTC -4)
Nice piece, Kingman.
I more or less agree with you here, Stick. SP to me should be the most important need over the winter. I really like Lackey but he’ll probably be too expensive, especially with other needs.
I have no problem with Cora coming back as MI backup. Don’t think you’ll probably get much better but I’d offer him less than what we gave him this year.
Way too many injuries this year for it to be a coincidence or bad luck. Not sure I buy the juicing argument. No matter, need to take a long hard look at the training/trainers and conditioning specialists for this team.
I use FMart in a trade package, if necessary. He’s not been able to stay healthy and he obviously was not ready to be up this year when he was healthy. I’m ready too cut ties if he’ll bring back someone we really need to fill some holes.
trs86
8/30/2009-5:06pm at 5:06 pm (UTC -4)
I still throw my guns into the AGonz race and settle for Pena if not. Then bring in a MIDrotation guy. Does not have to be a true #2, you over pay for those guys. Look at Lowe’s numbers, for sure not worth 15+M. Give me Marquis or Millwood.
Cora is fine but for no more than 1M. I don’t know what value Fmart has. If he is still requested for in trade then sure. If not then keep him and just lower our expectations.
prismo
8/30/2009-6:07pm at 6:07 pm (UTC -4)
Sorry, can’t help myself…
From MCblog (Baron): “Jerry Manuel said before the game that Thole might be limited to facing right handed hitters.”
I realize the Mets are desperate for hitting, but who knew they’d bring one of the their top hitting prospects up to the majors to be a ROOGY!
trs86
8/30/2009-7:39pm at 7:39 pm (UTC -4)
Is it possible that they are considering going with a platoon next year?
trs86
8/30/2009-7:43pm at 7:43 pm (UTC -4)
Its a tough decision. Do you bench Santos when we know so little about him and most likely will have to depend on him as a member of the 2010 Mets? Thole will be our future C but will it limit his development to face only RHP for a month?
stickguy
8/30/2009-10:25pm at 10:25 pm (UTC -4)
Well, Santos won’t get benched, since I doubt the start thole everyday.
And Thole will get some ABs vs. LHP, as long as they don’t pinch hit for him in the games he starts when the other team brings in a lefty.
So effectivley platooning him and Santos shouldn’t hurt either one, and will give the Mets a decent chance to evaluate Thole.
besides, aren’t his splits pretty even in the minors (and consistant, year to year?) If so, that should give them a pretty good idea that he can hit lefties.
And maybe just having him face righties is a concession to the fact that he has never been above AA, and they don’t want to “hurt his confidence”?
Oh, and it seems to go without saying, Schnieder gets relegated to PH, bench warming, or emergency 3rd catcher duties. Man, I can’t wait to have a team next year without him. AMong others.