Our next player in our Make it or Break it series is Mr. Santos. Omir has had a very interesting year in 2009. He has given us some of the few big moments of the season. However, all of us know that his current overall stats are not what we have grown accustomed to at Catcher. For years we have been spoiled with above league average production from catcher but the last two years have left us jealous of previous days.  Added to this discussion is the fact that the Mets have many holes to fill or decisions to make if you are an optimist like me.
Lets take a look at this a little backwards here. If not Santos who? Thole has shown great promise, but do we really want to put that much pressure on him this season? Many have mentioned Molina but offensively besides HR he offers nothing more. In fact Molina is having a terrible year by his standards at a terrible time for him and his team. His OPS sits at .725 and of course is driven all by SLG. Some have mentioned Russell Martin in a trade.  Martin actually trails Santos in many offensive catagories and will cost top prospects. Other names that may be available including Ramon Hernandez and Josh Bard have also had similar or worse years statistically. Your FA class at catcher includes Bard, Blanco, Castro, Hernandez (option), Kendall, LaRue, B. Molina, J. Molina, Olivo (3.3M option, most likely will be picked up considering the cost of FA catching.), Redmon, Schneider, Torrealba, Vtek,  and Pudge. Out of those with 250 ABs or more only Molina (.725), Pudge (.680), Hernandez (.685)  and Olivo (.769)  have higher OPS than Santos (.679).
Lets dig a little deeper into these numbers, as of the end of last week.
- 7th in the NL Krate with McCann, Martin, Montero, Bard, Soto, Baker, Iannetta all having a higher Krate.
- 6thin BA with B. Molina, Marin, Ruiz, Hernandez, Kendall, Bard, Iannetta, Soto all behind him.
- 7th in SLG with Y. Molina, Hernandez, Bard, Hanigan, Martin, Kendall behind him.
- 2nd in Line Drive percentage at 22.9 percent.
- SANTOS IS 28 YEARS OLD. Pudge 38, B. Molina 35, Olivo 31, Bard 31, J. Molina 34, Blanco38, Castro 33, Hernandez 33, Kendall 35, LaRue35, Redmond 38, Torrealba 31, Vtek 106.
Also to be factored into this discussion for the Mets you have to consider cash. Although I firmly believe the Mets will NOT cut payroll, cash is still a premium factor. Santos made league minimum this year as he was signed to a minor league contract and will have only slightly more than 1 year in service time so he will make the same next year. Can you see any on that list that would be better than Santos andsign for league minimum? Don’t think so. If you want to invest some money, how much? B. Molina will most likely be searching for at least a 2 year deal for around 6M a year. Hernandez if his option is not picked up would also be searching for similar money.  Olivo if he his the market could command at least that much per year.
I think the Mets best option is to see if Olivo would be available, if not then pursue one of these names or find a the LH version of Santos (a cast off) and bide their time for one more year. This would allow them to get close to league average production and groom Thole for the position in 2011. Thoughts?
71 comments
prismo
9/16/2009-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
I think Thole needs as much playing time between now and the end of the season as possible. If he finishes strong, I would accept a platoon of Santos and Thole in 2010. It would be very cost-efficient, and would allow Omar to spend more money elsewhere. I also think they could put up at least average offensive numbers for catchers, which isn’t very hard to accomplish.
trs86
9/16/2009-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
True, I have thought about it. But a platoon in a traditional sense could actually deter Thole’s growth. Now if you said that they split the time evenly regardless of the pitcher? Sure. Problem still is that we want Thole to be our 2011 full time option. Would we be better off signing a league minimum LH C for 2010 and then go with Thole fulltime in 2011 after a full year in AAA?
prismo
9/16/2009-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
If I were the GM, I think Thole/Santos is still the best option. You’re probably going to get average offense at the position, for very little money, and I do think that Thole can develop while getting 3-4 starts a week. I don’t see why getting 3.5 starts in the bigs for a season nets you less experience than 5.5 starts in AAA. Think about all the pitchers and things he’d learn in a full year. If Thole starts the season hot, and continues to hit and field alright for a couple months, maybe you shift the platoon into Thole catching a higher percentage of games. If Thole struggles, you can send him down to AAA and still sign or trade for some scrub catcher (there are always a few available during the season).
trs86
9/16/2009-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
All valid and thanks for the compliment.
Like I said, IF they would commit to a true shared role where Thole would still hit facing LH and RH pitchers I am fine with it. Riding the hot hand.
prismo
9/16/2009-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
I agree. Thole should be allowed to hit both LH and RH pitchers, otherwise it would hurt his development.
mrbaby
9/16/2009-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
Thole’s splits at Binghamton are nearly equal; other than the smaller sample size left v right, his slugging percentage and OPS are slightly lower vs. lefties, but he hit .328 vs. both. Manuel’s (and all MLB managers, quite frankly) rely way too much on this whole platoon business – for instance, why’d it take so long to realize that Murphy hit lefties as well as righties considering his minor league stats. We know what Santos can do. Got it. Now we have to see what Thole can do, even if it is only 17 games. He ought to be playing every game so semi-rationale decisions can be made in the off-season.
wannybackstra
9/16/2009-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
Did someone change my username?
This guy is singing my song!
Welcome, Mrbaby.
wannybackstra
9/16/2009-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
The most troublesome thing with Murph was that this Spring Jerry proclaimed that Murph would play v. lefties… but then he didn’t despite faring well in his few early season at bats.
But as a rule what Jerry says is meaningless. It has little to do with what he does.
fongy2
9/16/2009-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
Thank you! Been driving me crazy for weeks
now! Murphy obviously has a future,either
with us @1B or as good trade bait.
Tatis is what he is AND likely won’t even be here next season yet Murphy still isn’t
getting many ABs against Lefties despite the fact that for weeks now these games
aren’t “meaningful”…That one was for you
Mr.Wilpon…wherever you are.
Let’s see where Murph is at this point against the southpaws.
Really, as much as I’ve grown to dislike
Omar and his B.S., Jerrys starting to surpass him with the jive,nonsense and
lack of vision.
trs86
9/16/2009-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
Welcome to another one of secret group.
CaseStreet
9/16/2009-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
you’re worse than my wife at keeping secrets
trs86
9/16/2009-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
One thing I forgot to include. According to Fangraphs based on age, defense, offense and the market, Santos would be worth around 4M as a FA.
prismo
9/16/2009-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
Good post by the way!
steveo
9/16/2009-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
Leave thole in aaa let him develop into a stud instead of rushing him and ruining him ,its not like next year is going to matter anyway unless the braves ,phils and marlins all have catastrophic injuries like the mets have had next year.I think santos being his age and time is ready to assume the full time role with a back up filling in on his off days.What’s the worst thing that could happen he stincks it up no big deal next year, or maybe he solidifies the role and becomes trade bait for the 2011 season at age 30.I’m a big believer in 2010 being a push year I believe if they make panic signings to try to salvage next year with say a zambrano type trade they will be hurting the team for years to come let’s let this thing build up and get strong not rebuild but grow from the likes of thole,davis,holt, tajada,martinez and mejhia.With the braves rotation and the phils bats we are just going to be chasers next year.
CaseStreet
9/16/2009-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
can’t agree. why is it a push year?
Minus Delgado and Livan, which we’d assume Omar will replace, isn’t this the same team that many thought would at least go to the playoffs?
steveo
9/16/2009-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
My opinion and my opinion only I think the braves get a bat in a vasquez trade with that rotation and more offense against our putrid pitching and we loose 15 of the 18 games we face them,now maybe we score some more runs against teams like the phillies and marlins but you got to look at who we are going to be competing against in our division.
trs86
9/16/2009-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
Come on Steveo, the Braves pitching is good but their offense is terrible and is missing more than 1 bat and their pen and bench are also weak. Do you honestly think that the Mets would be behind the Braves if the Mets were healthy this year? No way.
steveo
9/16/2009-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
This year no way we would definatley be ahead of them but next year with a big bat or 2 remember 1 comes from a trade for vasquez and one bopper say a left fielder we would like to have. Then they have the same offence as us only with better starters
trs86
9/16/2009-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
REALLY? So the Braves at a record of 8 games above .500? You think if everyone was healthy all year we would not be 8 games above .500? OK well then never mind, we just will agree to vastly disagree.
steveo
9/16/2009-3:15pm at 3:15 pm (UTC -4)
I think you misread me.I said I think we would be ahead of them this year but next year is where the problems kick in
fongy2
9/16/2009-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
Anyone have any idea what payroll will look like for next season?
Don’t we already have about 90 tied up with just Beltran,Wright,Reyes,Castillo,
Johan,Ollie&KRod?
stickguy
9/16/2009-11:00am at 11:00 am (UTC -4)
Well, those are pretty much the only big contracts. Everyone else is either a couple million maybe (Maine, Frenchy), or making barely above minimum (santos, pagan, etc.)
Even Pelfrey is making less next year. Something in the $500,000 – 700,000 range.
so if they hav 90 committed, and say spend 15 on a bat and 10 on a pitcher, that is $115mill, leaving 20-25 for the rest of the team.
trs86
9/16/2009-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
Actually to reach this year’s payroll and even counting raises we would have to spend a little more than 30M.
fongy2
9/16/2009-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
yeah BUT if they have 90mil commited, what about Frenchy,Maine,Pelf
and even Feliciano?? Isn’t that another 12-15 Mil right there??
trs86
9/16/2009-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
That adds up to mabye 10? But again even after adding all of that in, to get to this year’s payroll we have 28-30M left after factoring ALL of that in.
fongy2
9/16/2009-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
Okay, well lets hope thats what Omar will be allowed
to spend. Do we try and blow everyone out of the water
with Lackey?? And then hope the Rays will again shop
Carl Crawford??
trs86
9/16/2009-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know. Would we be better off with 2 like Marquis and Washburn or one Lackey? Lackey will I think will be vastly overpaid because he is the sexy name. Perhaps guys like Washburn will be left out like Wolf and Garland were last year?
fongy2
9/16/2009-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
But Lackey is alot closer to an ace than
the other two.Although I like the other 2.
wannybackstra
9/16/2009-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
I’m with Fongy. The other two would surely fill in nicely as a 3 (Washburn) and 4 (Marquis) and are more reliable than what we have there now (Oliver, Maine, etc.). But what the team really needs is a legit #2 and Lackey is that.
Plus, Lackey allows Pelfrey to be in a role that will not make his growing pains as painful for the rest of us.
Also, Washburn is old and was pretty bad last year. And now he’s injured.
Marquis is 4-5 pitcher pitching like 2-3 this year. He’s an innings eater at the very least. I’d prefer him over Washburn.
fongy2
9/16/2009-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
I’d be a little nervous about JUST getting
a Washburn and/or Marquis.
Washburn finally woke up in his walk yr…
bad sign AND with Marquis,couldn’t ya just
see us gettin’ him a yr too late?
wannybackstra
9/16/2009-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
No doubt.
For the record, my plan this offseason included trading for Marquis as the Mets 5th starter.
I got the idea from someone on line at the bagel store!
fongy2
9/16/2009-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
You and me both Wanny! While the Cubbies
were shopping Marquis,I was hoping.
He ‘s got real good stuff and I always wondered why hes not better.
Of course It took him being in his walk yr
too put it together and b/t the lack of pitching and the yr hes had,he won’t come
Wolf/Garland cheap. If we’re gonna lay
out tens of mils and multi yrs,we should
big game hunt…John Lackey.
trs86
9/16/2009-1:11pm at 1:11 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, my point is that I am not sure that 2 good pitchers fix the rotation. I guess it just depends on what we expect from Pelfrey, Perez and Maine/Niese/Nieve.
My point was how last year I wanted Garland and Wolf instead of one Lowe or one Perez.
fongy2
9/16/2009-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
And I never do this sort of thing BUT how ’bout Castillo&Murphy for Derek Lee&Mike Fontenot?
trs86
9/16/2009-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
Hey that’s about as likely as my Zamby trade. However, the Cubs might put Lee on the market but to me he would actually command as much or more than Zambrano because of their contracts.
fongy2
9/16/2009-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
Yeah,I didn’t think so anyway.It’s just that all yr I keep reading about
how the Cubs might shop Lee.The thing is though that he’ll be coming into
the final yr of his deal although he does have a no trade,so….
Thought maybe Louie might love a guy like Murphy.
As for Zambrano,say what you will BUT there just aren’t many Ace-type
Pitchers out there regardless of salary so I just can’t see them moving
him. But who knows?
trs86
9/16/2009-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
It’s how much he is due and how he has had injury issues the last 2 years. Seriously, who can pony up that much money for Zamby? 3/18? Mets, RSox, Yankee’s, Angels, help me here. I don’t see his market being very large. Which may be why they don’t trade him?
I would love to have Lee, but I would have to imagine he would cost top prospects. It is possible they trade him as they have some options for 1B but they have struggled on offense even when healthy. I could see them trading Milton and stat wise we could use him for sure but the guy can’t even take the Chicago fans.
fongy2
9/16/2009-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
Gotcha! Not saying you suggested,although others did back in
the winter BUT No Thanks on Crazy Milton!
The 2nd coming of Carl Everett!
stickguy
9/16/2009-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
My theory is, if you can’t find good, might as well go cheap. Try to avoid Redding like situations, where you spned 2.5mill on a stiff thats gives you comparable or worse production to a guy making minimum wage.
I think your post proves that most catchers suck, so if yo uever have a chance to snag a promising young one (or get one in your system), grab and hang on.
If I interpret correctly, you think Thole is the future, but want to be careful about pushing him for 2010? Otherwise, what about the option of trading for a AAA guy that might be blocked, or that looks intriguing?
I would keep Santos. No he isn’t fantastic, but he has a little “pop”, seems to be fine defensively, has hit a little. IOW, he is like most other catchers, and he is cheap.
I could live with him and Thole as the catchers next year. THe PT will work itself out, but I don’t want to see THole just hitting against RH batters. So I’ll vote for Thole as the starter if he clearly wins the job, but with more rest (say 2-3 days per week) than most starters get.
They should sign the veteran guy anyway (no, not schnieder!), but they would have to be able to send him down to AAA if Thole wins the job.
fongy2
9/16/2009-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
Agreed! Stick.
trs86
9/16/2009-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
I have a crush on a blocked AAA catcher named Jose Morales. If the Mets could get him from the Twins to go with Santos and Thole I would party in the streets.
fongy2
9/16/2009-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
Agreed!, I know the guy you’re talking about. Had been a big prospect
with them for a couple yrs..Haven’t noticed what he did this yr though.
Hey maybe THEY can keep him and send us Mauer?…Just sayin’.
CaseStreet
9/16/2009-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
can you take a look at my next post? let me know if you have any suggestions or see something wrong.
trs86
9/16/2009-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
I am not sure you factored in some arbitration guys. Based on my post a few months ago when I counted everything up we have about 28-30M left after factoring in Maine, Frenchy, Feliciano, etc.
http://realdirtymets.com/2009/08/10/how-to-fix-this-mess-with-less-than-140m/
CaseStreet
9/16/2009-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
tnx
stickguy
9/16/2009-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
I know. That’s why I was surprised you didn’t mention him.
trs86
9/16/2009-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
Trying to stay in the likely relm. I would love to get him but I don’t think he will be traded until that Mauer guy is locked up long term.
wannybackstra
9/16/2009-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
All Morales did at AAA this year was 336 .413 .436 while hitting .350 in 87 MLB plate appearances.
trs86
9/16/2009-1:22pm at 1:22 pm (UTC -4)
The guy can hit. Not much HR power but imagine that line batting 8th.
wannybackstra
9/16/2009-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
I bet Pedro Morales was your favorite wrestler.
wannybackstra
9/16/2009-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll take that line batting second, sixth or seventh too.
CaseStreet
9/16/2009-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
What’s up w/ you and guys named Morales?
trs86
9/16/2009-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
And I have not been wrong yet.
fongy2
9/16/2009-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
You guys do know though that if Torrealba’s option isn’t picked up that
hes Omar’s guy. Maybe Don O will offer him another 4 yr deal like he did
two winters ago? Jeez, Omar, what a friggin’ disaster you are as GM.
trs86
9/16/2009-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
If he was Omar’s guy would we not have him right now?
fongy2
9/16/2009-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
My friend, you don’t remember that fiasco of two winters ago???
fongy2
9/16/2009-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
Sorry, I just double checked.The deal agreed to by Torrealba and
the Mets was 3 yrs and 14.4 Million dollars before he “failed”
his physical. Again, what a disaster that would have been.
And Omar was a talent scout???
trs86
9/16/2009-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
Sure I remember it. It was an ugly ordeal and they could not even agree on a lesser deal. Leading me to believe that Omar really never wanted him to start with and had already planned on something else.
fongy2
9/16/2009-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
Come on man! I’m trying here with you Omar backers.
They AGREED to the deal! So, Omar never really wanted him?
trs86
9/16/2009-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
I have no clue what the hell happen. All I know was the Mets would not release why they did not go through with the deal and Omar ran away like Mota from Piazza.
And please don’t classify me as an Omar supporter, I am an Omar tolerater.
wannybackstra
9/16/2009-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
I’d be fine with a good defensive guy like Josh Bard who also hits lefthanded (albeit not all that well) as an inexpensive veteran option who can buy time for Thole to develop.
But I would also give Thole the opportunity to win the job in Spring Training (he would have to really wow me, though).
And Omir can also be sent down to AAA if whomever we sign as a veteran can not be.
fongy2
9/16/2009-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
Agreed! Solid,informed and thoughtful post Wanny.
trs86
9/16/2009-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
I agree about bringing in another guy to start with. Bard I am not sold on. I would rather it be maybe a guy like Santos instead? A LH cast off?
wannybackstra
9/16/2009-1:31pm at 1:31 pm (UTC -4)
I’d like someone who has at least proven to be a major league caliber receiver.
Not sure how they can go with two unknowns (because Santos is still a relative unknown) and Thole without at least one guy they know can handle a pitching staff.
trs86
9/16/2009-1:58pm at 1:58 pm (UTC -4)
But how much worse can an unknown be than Bard? .234 .296 .351
wannybackstra
9/16/2009-2:15pm at 2:15 pm (UTC -4)
First of all Bard’s career numbers (261 .327 .388) are better than that.
Second of all, I think I made it pretty clear that Bard’s defense and reputation as a receiver were what I was after.
trs86
9/16/2009-2:17pm at 2:17 pm (UTC -4)
Just to pull your chain but wasn’t that why we brought in Schneider too?
I am sure we can find a decent all glove no hit guy like Santos.
wannybackstra
9/16/2009-2:24pm at 2:24 pm (UTC -4)
Bard is currently playing on a minor league 600k deal.
So if you want to take the chance of finding the mysterious and unknown major league quality backstop to save about 200k, then feel free by all means.
trs86
9/16/2009-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
I think it’s just about potential too. I like Santos because he could get better, not likely but could. Not much chance in that from Bard. Also, if we got Bard (which I would not jump up and down and scream no as long as it was at that .6) then I would not want it to be a platoon. That would mean that Bard got most of the AB’s.
Let me ask you this, if Schneider would come back for league minimum would you sign him?
wannybackstra
9/16/2009-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
No. But mostly because I don’t think he’s capable of staying healthy and because I think his defense has deteriorated accordingly.
trs86
9/16/2009-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, like I said I am not going to scream if they get Bard for .6 but I would just look around and see what I could find first. Guys like Bard will be there in March.