Jeff as a Met…
Jeff Francoeur came to the Mets amid a divide in the fan-base, as Ryan Church was sent packing to Atlanta. “Frenchie†as he’s so cleverly nicknamed, had been slumping for quite some time while on the Braves roster. Whether he broke out of slump because he was “due†or because of the change of scenery, Jeff has really turned things around while on the Mets. Despite a serious slump in early September, Francoeur’s boasted a batting average of .310 in 60 games, while sporting a slightly less impressive .337 on-base percentage. Perhaps most impressive is his slugging percentage, .485, much higher than his career average SLG of .429. Many have claimed that Frenchie’s regressed, but his 162-game projected home runs and runs batted in as a Met are both exactly the same as his lifetime 162 game average stats – 20 homers and 92 ribbies.
On the defensive side, Francoeur hasn’t left much of a question mark. With one of the best arms in the game, Jeff has a tally of 11 assists this season, while only making 1 error in the field. If you think the stats lie, his Gold Glove from 2007 doesn’t.
Francoeur has a couple more things going his way as well. He’s only 25 years old, turning 26 in January, and is set to make between $4-5 million next season if the Mets decide to keep him.
I can’t look at the positives without mentioning his faults though. Jeff does not have the best eye at the plate, as evidenced by his lifetime OBP of .311 (ouch!) as well as his average of 120 strike outs per season. Another detriment to keeping Frenchie is his prolonged slump from 2008 through the end of his tenure in Atlanta earlier this season. In that time, he held a batting average under .250 and an on-base percentage under .300. If the Mets pay Francoeur $5 million next season, and he regresses to similar statistics, he would probably lose the starter’s job and Omar might take some of the blame.
But is this enough reason to let Jeff go and search for a more consistent option in right field? Before I even delve into this topic, I think it’s crucial to look at the financial situation the Mets are in. Omar Minaya and the Wilpons need to find a way to fill their starting rotation and bullpen, as well as attempt to make upgrades at catcher and either left field or first base…and they’re likely going to try and do this without raising the payroll. That being said, it doesn’t make sense to spend more than $5 million on a new right fielder if Jeff isn’t the answer. That extra money would be much better spent on the starting rotation, if nowhere else.
Who else is available?
Mark Teahen is a trade candidate from the Royals, set to make around the same salary as Francoeur in 2010. Teahen is more consistent at the plate than Francoeur from year to year, but they share very similar life-time stats, with only 10 points separating their OPS. Jeff is clearly the better fielder (in RF) on all accounts; Teahen is adequate at fielding, but has only played right field in 22 games this season.
Milton Bradley is another option, through trade, but will make $9 million in 2010 (and $12 in 2011!). Vladimir Guerrero is a free agent option, but will also likely sign for much more than $5 million this off-season after earning $15 million this season. Alex Rios could potentially be brought over in a trade with the White Sox, but is due almost $60 million over the next 5 seasons and may not be a significant offensive upgrade over Francoeur.
The only potential right fielder that makes a shred of sense to look at, in my opinion, is Bobby Abreu. Abreu is making $5 million this season, and will probably get a similar contract next season (though perhaps for more than 1 year). His line in 2009 is .302/.401/.439. That means he gets on base much more often than Francoeur, which is helpful in a line-up that generally requires long strings of base-runners to score runs. Abreu’s slugging is significantly down this season, and his age is an issue. In his mid-30’s, Bobby is likely on the down-slope of his career. Though a Gold Glove winner in 2005, Abreu’s defense has come back to earth with increased age; shown by his 8 errors made so far in 2009.
I believe that Jeff Francoeur has earned his spot in 2010 for the Mets. He’s played hard, with a lot of energy, but also with a lot of class. Francoeur is young and healthy and has a ton of upside. It’s worth taking a look at Bobby Abreu, but Omar should focus his efforts elsewhere once winter rolls around. I was initially against the Church-Francoeur trade, but to my delight I was proven wrong. I’m on the Frenchie-train, and until he has another <.700 OPS season, it’s the right train to be on. All aboard!
14 comments
trs86
9/17/2009-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
I like Frenchy, I think he brings a lot to the Mets on and off the field. I am fine with him in RF for next year. We can then see how he does and the progress of Davis and Fmart. I would still love Abreu for LF but I don’t see the Angels letting him go or him wanting to leave. Teahen would be another guy that I would be fine with bringing to the Mets to add not to replace. Vlad scares me because of injury and Omar tendencies and Milton is a mess.
metsfan4decades
9/17/2009-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
I agree about Frenchy. I’m ‘onboard’ with this.
CaseStreet
9/17/2009-9:25am at 9:25 am (UTC -4)
I’d like to see Frenchy be the everyday RFer until his contract is up, as long as he’s hitting 6th or 7th hitter. If not F-Mart then one of the other prospects, maybe Wilmer Flores, should be ready by then.
trs86
9/17/2009-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, he is under team control for at least the next 2 years and I can’t imagine his salary balooning to troublesome unless he does really well in which I guess that’s a good thing.
wannybackstra
9/17/2009-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
I’m not sold on Francoeur yet. But for the money he’s worth a shot. He certainly seems re-energized since he’s been here and he seems to have the type of attitude that too many Mets do not.
I really wish Jerry wasn’t so insistent on waiting until Spring Training to work on his plate discipline, though. He’s been around long enough — at this point he’s not going to change overnight. Jerry needs to work on getting this guy to be as good a baseball player as his natural talent suggest he could be. At this point I think of him as an immensely talented athlete playing baseball — but not really a baseball player (same for Pagan).
trs86
9/17/2009-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think you can compare him to Pagan. Frenchy just likes to swing the bat his Krate is actually down this year. Frenchy does appear to be a good fielder and baserunner though.
wannybackstra
9/17/2009-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
Not comparing their skills or talents, specifically. Just the fact that neither seems to have the best baseball IQ yet.
metsfan4decades
9/17/2009-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
Heard GKR discussing Frenchy during the game last night. Said this kid has been a star since he was 12 years old. Was some kind of football star along the way (I don’t follow football so not sure what position – wasn’t QB, maybe wide receiver?). Got a scholarship to play football somewhere but turned it down for baseball. Did very well in the minors, was touted as the next star for the Braves. In fact Chipper commented, when they finally brought him up – ‘I’m glad you’re here kid, b/c I’m damned tired of reading about you in the papers’.
He comes up to the ML and does well initially but starts to flounder. Hey, this is the big leagues, where talent alone doesn’t make you good and you have to continually work to keep yourself valued. I think this is probably the first time in Frenchy’s life where sports didn’t come easy and he had no idea how to compensate.
Hopefully, he’s realizing this now. That comment of ‘OBP’ is overrated was one of the more ridiculous things I’ve ever heard. Might have been just a defense reaction to those constantly criticizing him over not working at bats or taking walks.
Here’s hoping someone intelligent can work with him on making adjustments in the big leagues.
steveo
9/17/2009-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
Frenchey while his numbers aren’t there definatley has the attitude,heart and grit to have my support
Kingman 26
9/17/2009-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
Nice post Prismo, and pretty long too!!
I wholeheartedly agree with your conclusions–I would like to see Frenchy for a full year next year, but Abreu would be a nice addition too.
CaseStreet
9/17/2009-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
Isn’t he too old? Maybe a year too late.
trs86
9/17/2009-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
Well he’s 35 but if it was only for a 1 year contract with an option I don’t see an issue but like I said he won’t leave LA I bet.
stickguy
9/17/2009-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Given the overall team situation, it makes sense to keep him for next year. I doubt you are going to find anyone better for the same or less money, and it is only a 1 year commitment. Abreu obviously would have helped tis year, but he does seem to be showing age related cracks. And since he seems to be a good fit in LA, the 2 year deal at decent money (2/18?) it would take to woo him to NY sounds risky.
Besides, I have been on the get younger and more athletic bandwagon for years (no more old farts! And that comes from an old fart)
So, for a 1 year deal at not that much money, worst that happens is he scuffles, and they put him on the bench. Hey, you like guys that hack on the bench, right?
So he gets another year. Just make sure to use him right. Put him in the 6 or 7 hole, where the ability to drive in runs is more improtant than OBP (although he should certainly work on that too).
trs86
9/17/2009-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
Agreed on the 6-7 spot, he does not K that much and has an ability to drive in runs that no one seems to notice. Everyone is affraid of the RBI stat because it depends on your other players. I agree but it does show the ability to get the job done. RBI/RBIChance in the NL for 6-8 is a very telling stat. How else do you measure the guy hitting the ball the other way to get the guy in from 3rd or a sac fly?