How does he keep his job? The world may never know!
Today I’m taking a look at what Omar must do to keep his job! I honestly believe that Omar’s job is not in jeopardy this offseason (barring a new media fiasco), so the focus of this piece will be what he’ll have to do to keep his job through the 2010 season.
We love to bust on Omar, but in all honesty, his trade and free agent history is fairly solid. There have been some major let-downs (Colon trade while with the Expos, Castillo and Perez with the Mets), but most of Omar’s big signings and trades turned out pretty, pretty, pretty good.
I could dig much much deeper into all the trades and signings, but it’s simpler to look at the big picture. After a successful 2006 campaign where the Mets almost made it to the World Series, the next three seasons have been disasters. But after 2008, the Wilpons didn’t seem to care about two collapses in a row, and signed Omar to an extension. Omar built a competitive team, but not one good enough to consistently make the playoffs – so what else was going through the mind of the Mets’ owners? I’ll tell you with a few shift-4’s: $$$. Omar brought the Mets back into relevancy and ticket sales have shown such, which put lots of money into the Wilpon family’s pockets.
To keep his job, Omar must continue to funnel into the Wilpon’s bank account. To do so, he doesn’t necessarily need to create a winning team, but needs to give the fans the perception of a competitive team. And this is where Omar excels. He knows how to plug holes and make a team look incredibly solid, but as soon as one thing goes wrong during the regular season the team falls apart. By then though, tons of tickets and merchandise have already been sold, and the Wilpons are winners…even if the Mets aren’t. Though this can only last for so long, before fans catch on, and we’ve begun to do just that, but is it enough yet?
A new GM could potentially make the team better, and bring in more money, but it’s a gamble. It’s a gamble for a family that recently lost hundreds of millions of dollars in a huge scandal. Would you make that gamble? I’m not even sure I would.
So what should we look for next season? Here’s my Prismoprediction for you: if the Mets make the playoffs, Omar stays (duh). If they miss the playoffs, the next indicator is ticket sales*. If ticket sales stay the same, Omar keeps his job for another season, but if they’re down…he’s out. It’s a tough pill to swallow to think that the team could miss the playoffs again and Omar would keep his job, but it’s a viable possibility. Gulp.
*Omar will get a pass regarding the drop in ticket sales this season due to injuries to the team – next season is the true indicator
81 comments
fongy2
10/1/2009-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
My opinions on this huckster have been pretty well stated and debated over the past year.
So, no further need………
Just wanted to say good morning to my fellow Met fanatics!
CaseStreet
10/1/2009-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
damn fong, I was expecting a 20 page report from you.
Kingman 26
10/1/2009-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
He prepared it, but his dog ate it…
fongy2
10/1/2009-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
you’re outta your element Donny!………..
Kingman 26
10/1/2009-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
“Your phone’s ringing Dude….”
“Thank you Donny.”
fongy2
10/1/2009-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
That rug really tied the room together…did it not?
Kingman 26
10/1/2009-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
Fu***n’ A.
fongy2
10/1/2009-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
“You said it man, nobody f*cks with the Jesus”
Kingman 26
10/1/2009-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
As Walter Sobchak would say, “And a good day to you sir!”
CaseStreet
10/1/2009-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
Blame it on the SI curse!
IDK, i’d have to think it all hangs on whether they make it to the playoffs.
Omar’s put together winning teams, just not flawless. There’s always a weakness that gets exposed.
trs86
10/1/2009-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. This year, the weakness that was exposed was Jerry. That still goes on Omar too. I still can’t blame the season long injuries on him.
I know fongy will say well he picked the trainers but I don’t think any docs could have saved this lost season.
stickguy
10/1/2009-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
Just have to cross your fingers that Omar, and whoever ends up being in the new braintrust (with the suposed shifting of FO duties, and the recent firings) make some smart decisions.
If nothing else, have an intern cruise all the blogs, etc. and dredge for interesting ideas. Just execute some version of one of my 20 plans, or TRS’s plan of the day, and it probably keeps the team fully competitive.
You would think that even Omar would learn something from adversity. Not going to guarantee it, but there is always hope.
So, my prediction? Omar stays, but may shift soem responsibility around, and someone(s) will have more input or oversight into what they are doing (and hopefully, into the gameplan roadmap for the off season).
Frankly, executing the plan seems like the easier part. COming up with the right plan is tricky.
Then, you cross your fingers, and hope for a couple of gambles to pay off, and your key pieces to stay healthy and have big years.
I am quite confident saying that if Utley and Howard had both missed 3+ months at the same time, and took werth out for 2+, the Phils would be making tee times with the Mets for next week.
Finally, assuming Omar doesn’t trade it all away, they should actually have some viable MiL players to call up for DL spot duty (the 2 week kind). Fewer Ramon Martinez’s would be fine with me.
trs86
10/1/2009-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. Not to mention where they would be right now with out Lee and with Hamels injured.
fongy2
10/1/2009-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, but they’re not AND if their season had fallen apart due mostly to injury
what condition would they be in going foward as opposed to what we look like
heading into this off season?
Five years in and Omar has now had Mgrs,Coaches,VPs,top Assistants,Player personel chiefs and players HE brought in bounced out of here, yet HE is
has his job. Yeah, makes sense to me!!!
metsfan4decades
10/1/2009-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
You hit the nail on the head, Stick. Phillies have one of the worst benches in the ML. They would be in real trouble w/o their regulars.
Kingman 26
10/1/2009-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
Nice piece and great picture, and I especially appreciate the Larry David reference.
Really good, logical, realistic and sensible points.
metsfan4decades
10/1/2009-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
I think it’s very telling that I haven’t seen or heard a peep out of Omar since the Rubin debacle. I think the Wilpons clearly put the lid on him to keep him away from the media. He did enough damage this year in that vein. To me, that speaks volumes. He might not be let go out right, but I expect to be seeing a shift in duties where maybe Omar isn’t the primary or sole link to the media, bare minimum.
trs86
10/1/2009-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
I think if the Mets don’t make the playoffs next year all hell will break loose. Core member(s) will be traded and Omar will be gone.
Kingman 26
10/1/2009-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
Absolutely agree.
Kingman 26
10/1/2009-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
And if they miss the postseason again, and are fairly competitive and have decent attendance, and Omar and The Core stay, then the people who say the Wilpons do not care about winning and only care enough to be competitive as long as they make money will be proven absolutely right.
darknova306
10/1/2009-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, and that’s a scary proposition.
trs86
10/1/2009-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
LOL, I know the Yankee’s are good and we suck but tell me this headline does not make you chuckle:
“Joba Booed Off Mound, Roster Spot In Jeopardy”
Kingman 26
10/1/2009-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
It definitely makes me smile.
metsfan4decades
10/1/2009-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
Oh brother…
Let me get out my violin for the Yankees.
And I don’t know why they keep insisting on Joba as a starter anyway. He reminds me of Maine. Maybe you get a good 5 innings from him. Once in a while a good 7 innings. Should have just left him in that set up roll….
dirtysanchez
10/1/2009-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
Good piece pris
In the words of ken rosenthals converstation with cubs VP of PR when ken went on a cubs radio station and called the cubs season “Disastrous”
“The cubs VP of PR called me soon after and told me that the cubs season was Disappointing, the Mets season was disastrous”
I think its indicative of his job when every single year it seems he has a tougher task and more to get done in the offseason than the year before. He has alot of work to do this offseason and i hope he is up for it. This team needs a major face lift and theres a good chance to do just that this offseason. Good luck Omar…your going to need it
darknova306
10/1/2009-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
Omar is good at fixing one major hole, but letting the rest sit there. Last year he fixed the pen, but left the rotation as a joke. We were forced to rely on Santana and a bunch of question marks. Oops.
Great image Prismo. Opening up this post made me laugh quite a bit.
CaseStreet
10/1/2009-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
I had more faith in the rotation than just that. Pelf had a strong yr last yr., Maine was the #2 for most of the year and Ollie was Ollie. He added 5th starter innings eater Livan and had Garcia, Redding, Figgy and Niese for callups.
U Could argue that Omar should’ve given Lowe 4 yrs or more money, but I don’t think so. A 2-4 of 3 #3′s was good for me.
fongy2
10/1/2009-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
Leftfield?..Rightfield??….
trs86
10/1/2009-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
RF IF Church was healthy would have been close to league average and the Mets had money to bring in a hired hand if they needed more production during the year. They did not do it because there was no need at that point.
CaseStreet
10/1/2009-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
You telling me you weren’t comfortable penciling in Church in RF?
Murph was the question mark, but w/ Delgado at 1st I felt good having a light hitting LFer. He would’ve hit 7th. Not all teams can have strong 7th hitters.
Ur right that an upgrade a LF would’ve been nice. Personally, I liked Rivera from the angels. But I don’t think it was a glaring hole considering the rest of the lineup.
trs86
10/1/2009-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
Comfortable? No. Understanding? Yes.
fongy2
10/1/2009-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I’m telling you that. Just like I did all winter and
spring! 6/7/8/9…Church/Murphy/Scheider/Pitcher….
Not exactly the stuff Champions are made of.
trs86
10/1/2009-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
But the 1-5 was comparable to any team in baseball. Also, that 6-9 was not much different that it was in years past. You could make an argument that hurt us in the past and you could make the argument based on stats it did not. What hurts is when one of those top 5 go down.
fongy2
10/1/2009-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
AND Castillo couldn’t be counted on AND 6-9 wasn’t
good enough to put us over the top previously AND
we were depending on the big four having at least
as good a season as they did last season.
Yeah, that was a receipe fpr success!
trs86
10/1/2009-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
You are missing the fact that if those guys had been healthy most likely we would have made a trade.
And you know I wanted 1 more bat but I actually understood why we did not. Did not like it but understood it. They wanted to see what Murphy could do and it backfired. They fell in love with Murphy unjustifiably
CaseStreet
10/1/2009-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
come on. 8 and 9 are always a waste, for most teams.
IDK why Church and Murph should be looked at so poorly. You have 4 All-Stars, in the lineup, 5 if you count Castillo. Do the 6th and 7th hitters also have to be top level players? What team besides the yankees do that?
Like trs said, it would’ve been nice, but not necessary given the past history of leading the league in offensive stats.
fongy2
10/1/2009-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
So now Castillo is an allstar again? Wow!
Church but for 2 months in his career ever showed himself to be any more that a platoon/4th OFer.
And thats if you had atleast 2 other real good
players out there,not one. I like Murphy BUT…
in Citifield w/Omar preaching defense, HE’S our
Leftfielder? AND AGAIN, this pre-supposes our
big four did what they did last season.
C’mon!, Sorry to be this way BUT I was right
in March about this and am right now.
Injuries or not.
CaseStreet
10/1/2009-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
lol, a bit of a strech, I know.
fongy2
10/1/2009-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
Long, long season Homey!!
darknova306
10/1/2009-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
I agree about Lowe 100%, but just settling for Ollie was a joke. Pelfrey had a strong 2nd half, was rushed through our system, had way too much hype on him, and had a 48 inning increase in his workload last year. Sorry, but I had little confidence in him coming into the season. Ollie is a joke. He’s not a #3. In my opinion, we had Johan and 4 #5′s, which is why I was expecting about an 84 win season. Who knew it would get so much worse so quickly…
trs86
10/1/2009-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
I would not say 4 #5′s. You have to remember what a #5 is in the NL. I would say it looked more like this
1, 3, 4, 4, 5.
darknova306
10/1/2009-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
So what is a #5 in the NL? Can we finally get some actual definitions for the various spots in a starting rotation? Otherwise these arguments are largely useless.
Who are you putting is as #3 there? Pelfrey was set to regress if you believe in the Verducci effect (and I think it has a fair amount of merit; 48 innings more in 08 than 07 including minor leagues), so I wasn’t expecting more than a #5 out of him. I’ll accept Ollie being a #4. Maine’s a #4 if healthy, and I questioned his health, thus expecting #5 results. So maybe 1,4,5,5,5. Still, not good enough. You need someone you KNOW you can count on in the middle of a rotation. None of these guys had proven sustained success (obviously I’m leaving Johan out of that statement). When there’s no reliability behind your ace, other than reliably inconsistent, you don’t have a playoff calber rotation.
trs86
10/1/2009-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
But IF Maine pitched the entire year, would you not expect him to have under a 5 ERA? IF he was healthy he would have better and if he was unhealthy he never would have lasted anyway. Thus he was at least a #4 or a nothing.
It was dangerous as we all said, but based on 2008 stats. Yes Pelfrey was set for a decline but I don’t think we expected it to decline that sharply. If you did then you got one and I get one for Slappy rebounding.
darknova306
10/1/2009-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, if he was healthy the whole year he’s a 4. I expected his arm to continue to be an issue, which is why I was expecting #5 results for this year. To me, the IFs you speak of were too large to ignore, especially with the walking question mark that is Oliver Perez also in the rotation.
Yes, I expected a large decline from Pelfrey. A guy who was rushed through the system, went from 152 to 200 innings from 07 to 08, and only had one good half season to his credit. I thought he should’ve started out slotted in at #4 or 5.
And yes, good call on Slappy. I didn’t expect him to have an awful year this year, but he vastly outpaced my meager expectations for him. He gets worlds of credit from me right now for how he conducted himself all season.
mrbill
10/1/2009-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
ESPN said Reyes injury could be career ending… yikes!
trs86
10/1/2009-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
Linky?
metsfan4decades
10/1/2009-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
I’ll believe it when it’s confirmed. I sincerely hope not.
I think they’re just trying to drum up headlines/stories b/c it’s slow before post season….
trs86
10/1/2009-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Most likely. Still looking for the report.
fongy2
10/1/2009-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
Well, Kirk Gibson never recovered from it. Despite also being a world-
class athlete.
trs86
10/1/2009-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
Lets not compare Gibson’s athletic needs or abilities to Reyes.
fongy2
10/1/2009-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
Because???
trs86
10/1/2009-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
Because Reyes is/was more athletic than Gibson and his game requires more athleticism than Gibson.
fongy2
10/1/2009-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
Do you know ANYTHING about Kirk Gibson?
Nevermind, obviously not.
trs86
10/1/2009-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
Sure I do, I know he was a great athlete. But lets not confuse athleticism with athlete.
fongy2
10/1/2009-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
Huh???
metsfan4decades
10/1/2009-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
Reyes is far younger than Gibson was.
fongy2
10/1/2009-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
Now THAT’s fair.
TRS, apparently didnt know Gibson was an all american
WR @ Michigan St. who was timed as a senior in the 40
@ 4.2 secs..
BUT you’re right, he was about 31 or 32 when he suffered
his injury, however it did effectively end his career
as a “star” player.
trs86
10/1/2009-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
You show me an article where he was timed at 4.2 flat. If you can then I can show you a broken stop watch.
Also, you mean to tell me that when Gibson was injured he had incredible athleticism and would be considered more athletic at the time than Jose was this year?
fongy2
10/1/2009-2:50pm at 2:50 pm (UTC -4)
My friend, there is a 1979 article in
S.I. which quotes a Seahawks scout as
saying…This is the first white guy
who runs a legit timed 4.2/40….
This was following his Senior season.
Oh, and b/t/w the guy is in the college
football HOF.
But, no. Keeping arguing.
fongy2
10/1/2009-2:52pm at 2:52 pm (UTC -4)
And b/t/w STOP twisting words all the
time! I never said he was “more athletic”.
Jeez, I can see why you get into it w/
our atty friend Wanny!
mrbill
10/1/2009-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
True… some dr on the espn radio said not definitely but potentially… who knows… but it’s scary just to hear that as a possibility.
trs86
10/1/2009-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
ANY injury according to a doctor is potentially career ending. When I played sports the doc told me I would have to quit basketball because of ingrown toenails. LOL.
mrbill
10/1/2009-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
Then why did you quit the sport? lol
trs86
10/1/2009-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
Because I sucked.
metsfan4decades
10/1/2009-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
LOL. How does that go?
‘Those that can do. Those that can’t teach’??
CaseStreet
10/1/2009-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
OH SNAP
trs86
10/1/2009-1:09pm at 1:09 pm (UTC -4)
Yup, and coach.
darknova306
10/1/2009-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
That’s probably just idiots being all doomsday about the team. At least, that’s what I hope. Ugh.
wannybackstra
10/1/2009-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
I’m not convinced Omar is a bad GM from a talent evaluation or even a general baseball viewpoint. I’ve agreed with most of the moves he’s made (the glaring exception being Ollie and not Lowe). Like anyone he’s got his strengths and weaknesses.
Omar’s greatest weakness (aside from public speaking) appears to be his ability to hire and lead men in the organization. It seems the hierarchy beneath him is always chaotic and in flux. While I do think he is a good talent evaluator, I’m not convinced the scouting department he’s put together is: they can salvage this reputation with successes from Davis, Havens and Holt.
It was seemingly clear to everyone but Omar that Bernazard was a bad seed (ask Willie). Ramon Pena was also apparently a bad dude. And many of his hires seem to be of the “nepotistic” or favoritism varieties. How come there is not a legitimate manager in waiting in the Mets’ system? (Obie must have a picture of Omar naked, Oliveras was apparently a favor to Pena, Teufel is a former Met but with a terrible minor league record, etc.)
His handling of injuries and the trainers’ success rate is awful — even from the standpoint of managing the roster by refusing to DL players. He likes to rush young players through the minor league system — ready or not — and then apparently condones the manager’s misuse of those players to their detriment (i.e. Murph’s jerking around, Evans sitting, is Parnell is a starter or reliever). He’s lucky Tejada performed well at AA because he was not very good last year at A and he’s still a baby. F-Mart quite clearly wasn’t ready for the show.
Omar is known as persuasive, yet he can’t convince ownership to spend over slot in the draft. The Mets are one of few teams who operate like this. Of course, the answer is that he prefers to be able to have a few extra bucks to spend on major league free agents (:cough: busts). While the Mets supposedly were to focus instead on signing international talent, they don’t appear to be big spenders in that regard, although they seem to have a nice stable of unheralded players like Puello, Aderlin and Mejia. But the Mets have not been involved in Sano, Viciedo or other big names and don’t seem to be interested in Chapman.
Obviously, he picks poor managers and coaches.
All in all, I think that despite the fact the Mets were in contention for three straight seasons right down to the last game — no other team can say that during that time period — that Omar has to be a fall guy for the mess he’s created in the manager’s office and in the system.
Sometimes change is good just for the sake of it, especially when the organization is carrying an aura of pessimism.
trs86
10/1/2009-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
I agree with almost everything. Still disagree on Lowe, the wise thing to do there would have been PUNT on SP or make a trade.
Chapman, with the numbers being thrown around I am unsure about to say the least.
Everything else, spot on.
trs86
10/1/2009-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
Well, one more. I still don’t think Willie was a bad manager, just after 2007 could no longer be the manager.
wannybackstra
10/1/2009-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
If he was a good manager he would have been able to change the culture, encourage his players to battle through it, light a fire — change the voice somewhat.
Instead, he was too busy trying to be like Joe Torre.
Bobby Cox’s teams have been through some rough times in recent years — full of injuries themselves lately — and look at them fighting to the end with less than a top-flight roster of players.
trs86
10/1/2009-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
But I think we can admit that 2007, September just spiraled and no one knew how to handle it.
wannybackstra
10/1/2009-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
In retrospect punting was better than Ollie. But I’m not sure entering the season with both Redding and Livan in the rtoation would have made anyone happy.
trs86
10/1/2009-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
Wolf or Garland on ONE year contracts were what I was referring to as punt. A guy that could only hurt us one year.
There are Braves fans already wanting to move Lowe to the BP next year. He has been decent but not worth the money for a 37 year old. But we have already been over that MANY times.
CaseStreet
10/1/2009-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
the gangsta move would’ve been to trade for vasquez when he was being shopped
trs86
10/1/2009-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
Not sure we could have matched the trade? What date was he traded?
CaseStreet
10/1/2009-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
12/2/08
http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2008/12/vazquez-trade-p.html
looks like most weren’t close to ML ready but had some upside.
the only guy that broke the BA top 100 was Flowers at 99.
It seems like we could’ve matched but you never know what teams are looking for.
Kingman 26
10/1/2009-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
Really good post Wanny; great points.
metsfan4decades
10/1/2009-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
Very good points.
And if some of us die hard fans can see this, realize this, why can’t Omar – or even the Wilpons? I mean really, are we that much smarter than them? I can’t believe with the fortunes the Wilpons have amassed they can be that ignorant in the ways of business. So…is it all about the money with them – which doesn’t always translate to fielding the best team that money can by? I sometimes wonder…
Look at the Cubs. They haven’t won a WS in over 100 years? And they pack that stadium year after year. Money is being made. Or maybe not as much I believe since they just sold that team….
wannybackstra
10/1/2009-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks, Kong and M4D. Sometimes stream of consciousness works? As M4D says, imagine if the Wilpons or Omar actually thought about this stuff.