Do the Mets have a shot at the Cuban phenom?
Aroldis Chapman, the 21 year old Cuban defector who recently declared for free agency, Looks to wow MLB scouts with his 100 MPH+ fastball, five pitch repertoire (fastball, slider, curve, change, cutter), and enough potential to make scouts blush. The Mets have a history of gushing over international free agents (losing out on Dice-K, Jose Contreras) and have history employing Cuban pitchers (The Hernandez brothers), with mixed results. Will this Cuban Missile be added to the Mets plans in 2010 and beyond, or will Met fans be relegated to only enjoying a new Cuban Sandwich on the Blue Smoke menu? Let’s take a look at the numbers Chapman has compiled in both the Cuban League and in International competition.
Chapman by the numbers (Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus):
2005-2006: 3-5, 4.33 ERA.
2006-2007: 4-3, 7 SV, 2.77 ERA, 100 K’s, 59 H, 81 1/3 IP. He led the league in strikeouts, though he also ranked 6th in walks (50).
2007 Pan American Games: 0-0, 1IP, 2K, 0.00 ERA
2007 Baseball World Cup: 2-0, 20K in 17IP. He was named to the tournament All-Star team as the top left-handed pitcher.
2007-2008: 6-7 with a 3.89 ERA, .200 BAA and 79 strikeouts in 74 innings, tied for 7th in the league in strikeouts.
2009 WBC: 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA, 8 K’s in 6 1/3 IP.
2008-2009: 11-4, 4.03 ERA 130 K’s, 118 1/3 IP. He led the league in strikeouts, was tied for 4th in wins, was 5th with 62 walks and tied for the most wild pitches (14).
4 yr totals at Holguin: 24-19 record with 365 strikeouts in 327.2 innings with a 3.74 ERA
*Using scouting reports and comparative numbers from former Cuban League players currently in the MLB, the Cuban League plays between High-A and Double AA ball competitively, but with more talent disparity among the players, meaning the overall talent equals Double-A ball, but you have outliers of Major League talent as well as Low-A or Rookie Ball talent.
Most notable comparables at age (Baseball Prospectus): Mike Gonzalez, Oliver Perez, Andy Sisco, Scott Linebrink, Brian Fuentes
Notice by these numbers how Chapman has had great success as a relief pitcher as well as in the Cuban League, and how he has struggled against the big boys (the World Baseball Classic). He’s like Megan Fox in a way: Give ‘em a lay-up (her role in Transformers, his role facing Cuban League hitters) and they will give you a YouTube worthy reverse, two-handed jam (Become the Hottest Woman in Hollywood, Become the Cuban Nolan Ryan). Hand them the keys to the Bentley, and they wrap it around a tree (Jennifer’s Body**, the World Baseball Classic).
**Jennifer’s Body? WHAT? Your Megan Fox’s agent. She is a STAR. She fixes a car with a tied up flannel shirt and some jean shorts on, and she blows up. So you decide the best next role for her is a possessed chick who kills everything in sight by opening her mouth Alien style? There was no other leading role you could have put her in? You really think that by just being amazingly hot and being in two Michael Bay films with billions of dollars in advertising budgets, she could carry this abortion of a film? Really?
How do the Mets handle negotiating with Chapman? Do they need a 21 year old southpaw with unlimited upside who struck out 130 professional hitters in 118 innings? YES (doesn’t everybody?). Can they afford to outbid the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels (he prefers a Southern California team…that’s nice…hey Omar, go throw $50 mil to this unproven kid who wants to pitch in warm weather and oh by the way, he might not pan out) for his services? NOT THIS YEAR. Here’s why:
Thanks to Omar's grand vision, nope. Have fun pitching elsewhere, Aroldis.
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Omar Minaya is bad at his job: Ollie Perez, 12 million a year? Sure! Thanks Omar for basing a three year contract in 2009 on one playoff game (THAT HE LOST!!) in 2006. Luis Castillo, until 2011? Why not! His bad knees will get better with time, everybody’s knees do! If Minaya didn’t waste all of his money on albatross contracts like Castillo and Perez, we could have some money to risk on a player of Chapman’s potential. Now Minaya must exhaust all of his 2010 funds on win-now players, and even that might not be enough to keep his head out of the guillotine. Side note Wilpons, if you need someone to don the Executioner garb and pull the rope sending the Ax Blade screaming down towards Omar’s melon, I’m sure you can make a pretty penny putting this job up on eBay. Just a thought.
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John Lackey is expensive: We need a frontline starter to couple with Johan. Enough said. Unless we drug Jim Hendry into giving us Big Z and Milton Bradley for Ollie (Milton bad contract swap), Castillo, and let’s say….Holt, Parnell, and Jeffrey Marte (you wouldn’t give up those three for Big Z? Really?) or trade 35 cents for the dollar that is Gil Meche, then John Lackey will be “Showing Up at Shea†in 2010 for the Mets. (It’s not that I don’t call it Citi, I just love that tagline!)
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Yankees! Red Sox! It’s bidding war 2010, presented by Just for Men! Stay in the game like Keith does, with Just for Men!: When the Evil Empire and the Red Sox Nation want someone, they pay to get them. Boston’s winning bid for the Dice was eight figures more than the Mets, who had the second highest bid. And the fact that Aroldis is already California Dreamin’ makes it even more possible that the Yanks and Sox break the bank for the phenom.
In closing, Aroldis Chapman would be a great value for a big market team that can afford him, and afford to develop him into a dominant talent. Unfortunately for the Amazins, Minaya’s plan for the Mets was as properly thought out as Fox giving Michael Strahan a sitcom, and that will prevent them from making an investment in Chapman’s services in return for his potential dominance of the league in three to four years. (Please don’t tell me you like Michael Strahan’s sitcom. Please.)
12 comments
CaseStreet
10/9/2009-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
agreed on Megan Fox, her agent should be fired.
Can’t agree on Chapman.
If the Red Sox want him, so do I. His agent is in NY. The cuban sandwiches in Queens are much better than in Boston or the Bronx.
Yeah he walks lots of batters but don’t most power lefties?
trs86
10/9/2009-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
I am torn on Chapman. How old is he really? How long before he is ready? How much will he cost? Will that keep them from getting a pitcher ready for next year?
dirtysanchez
10/9/2009-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
LMAOOOOO great stuff mattone!!
Im still trying to figure out who the hell thought it would be a good idea to give strahan a sitcom lol. Your right, the mets should make a play but im sure it will be the bidding war from hell between the yanks and sox. I think he would be a nice guy to have in the system but most likley his price tag will be WAY to much.
trs86
10/9/2009-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
Also, a few other points. As far as bad contracts, we have not got much. Perez is for sure but it’s only 2/24 now and I am not even sure how bad Castillo’s is right now. Lets say he is 2 times over paid. OK that frees up 3M, not going to help. Even if you add up what Perez and Castillo have left COMBINED it would most likely still not be enough to get Chapman. So I don’t see it as Omar misusing the money as much as it is that we already have a core with high priced players that need some role players to perform. We have room for about one more big contract to take Delgado’s spot and that’s it. It would not have really changed if Castillo or Perez were not here.
stickguy
10/9/2009-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
gotta agree on the bad contracts. Urban myth.
Yes, Ollie was a stretch, and has not worked out. But, Omar was at least smart enough (or lucky enough!) to keep it short. Like TRS said, 2 years is manageable, an 12mill/year is not unworkable.
and Castillo was more about the years, and the fact that any deal with Castillo was bad! But remember, he is an eveyday, starting 2B hitting at the top of the order. So really, how overpaid is he (writing off 2008 to the knees)? If he comes close to reproducing his 2009, he is probably right close to market value.
Blows my mind, but Luis is tradeable, and you won’t have to eat the entire contract to do it!
Unless you want to consider K Rod in the bad contract 9that 4th year vesting wil be a killer), that is about it.
Nothing like Toronto, even the Angels, are sitting on. Detroit owes what, 18mill to the RF next year? Barry zito for another 100mill or so?
Heck, if The Mets are able to push the luxury tax (say, 148 mill) in 2010, they could pay Luis and Ollie to stay home, and still have 130 million to field a full team with, which still puts them in the top couple teams in MLB.
trs86
10/9/2009-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
Truthfully the BAD contracts this year were Johan, Beltran, Reyes, Krod and Perez. Because of injury and the fact the team was bad, those guys all were overpaid. But I don’t see too many people complaining about some of those guys.
Mr North Jersey
10/9/2009-11:09am at 11:09 am (UTC -4)
I like the post but I only have one disagreement.
When you wrote “Thanks Omar for basing a three year contract in 2009 on one playoff game (THAT HE LOST!!)”
I’m not saying I am glad he signed Perez but if we are gonna rip the man let’s at least rip him for the right reasons.
The reason he signed Ollie is because of the stretch of starts he had from the Yankee game in late June of 08 to about mid September. Ollie actually pitched real well during that stretch.
Hard to believe I know but never the less it’s true.
Good Job
trs86
10/9/2009-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
And of course ALL of 2007.
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know whether Chapman is legit or not but I have a hard time believing the Mets will be shelling out that kind of dough for any minor leaguerm considering that they have not been using their financial means to draft better players or to sign the big name international free agents (they were not in on Miguel Sano, Viciedo, etc.).
trs86
10/9/2009-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
I just don’t see how they can period. They don’t have time to wait on him to develop, with this being maybe the last year of Omar, Jerry and the core.
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
That’s another good point. Not so sure Omar gives a crap about players beyond 2010.
Remember the last time he was in this position, by the way? Sizemore, Lee and Phillips for Bartolo Colon?
Maybe the Mets should just fire him now…
CaseStreet
10/9/2009-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
“They don’t have time to wait on him to develop, with this being maybe the last year of Omar, Jerry and the core.”
Come on TRS, so all their focus will be on 2010? You really don’t think they are planning on the future?
Sorry, as dumb and incompetent we may think the FO is, I can’t believe your premise.