With last night’s blunder, if the Cardinals go on to lose the series (good bet now), has Holliday sealed his fate of moving on in search of green? The St. Louis fan-base has always been known for their intelligence, but will that intelligence be taken over by the emotion of his blunder last night? Clearly, the two biggest payroll teams will be very interested in Matt Holliday. Is it now for certain Holliday will be NY bound? What do you guys think?
Oct 09
Did Holliday Just Purchase His Ticket To New York?
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85 comments
GravediggerHebner
10/9/2009-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
Since “New York” includes the Yankees I think this is reasonably likely.
trs86
10/9/2009-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
I left it that way on purpose for sure Grave.
trs86
10/9/2009-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
Honestly I am not even sure besides NY and St. Louis who will be on the market for him?
trs86
10/9/2009-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
I could see the Angels involved letting Vlad walk…
Help me out here.
Braves, but can they afford it?
trs86
10/9/2009-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
AL East
Boston: Most likely will keep Bay for less
NY: Yes
Other’s? Don’t see it
AL Central
Don’t see any of them
AL West
Angels: Maybe
Uh don’t see anyone else
NL East
NY: Yes
Braves: Not likley
No one else
Central:
Cards: Maybe LOL.
Cubs: If they could dump Bradley?
West:
Dodgers: Maybe?
Giants: Yes
Uhmmm…
GravediggerHebner
10/9/2009-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
Without sitting for hours analyzing individual team economies and rosters and trends, your list seems perfectly reasonable and based on it I will operate for the moment on the assumption that the Giants will swoop in and blow Holliday/Boras away: with the way their team is comprised, he is really what they need.
trs86
10/9/2009-12:56pm at 12:56 pm (UTC -4)
Good chance. Unless they are sore over Zito.
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
“Other’s?” Kingman!!!!
CaseStreet
10/9/2009-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
Modells began taking orders for Holliday jerseys.
udontmesswthejohan
10/9/2009-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
Well, I’d be lying if I said this thought didn’t pass my mind last night when he botched that ball, but I don’t think we can read too much into it.
You mentioned the St. Louis fans who are always lauded as being such great fans simply because they don’t boo as if that is the definition of being a good fan. Anyway, if that’s all true about them not booing, then they should be able to forgive Holliday and his error.
trs86
10/9/2009-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
Should, but can they? Have they ever had to forgive something like this? In our lifetime I can’t remember it.
GravediggerHebner
10/9/2009-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
Speaking of fans and forgiveness, while it wasn’t the deciding pitch of the series I couldn’t help but notice that the great Manny Ramirez stood motionless in the box while Adam Wainwright spun off a great curveball called strike three. Will Manny be vilified for eternity by a hardcore minority of Dodger fans?
trs86
10/9/2009-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
Can’t say that this one means quite as much. LOL.
GravediggerHebner
10/9/2009-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
Clearly it doesn’t. Mostly just noting it to point out that Wainwright has a curveball that freezes even Mannywood. Maybe knowing that even their hero can’t recognize it/do anything with it will allow some to back off their strong negative feelings about Beltran. I doubt it, but I couldn’t let the opportunity pass without at least broaching it.
GravediggerHebner
10/9/2009-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
More seriously, I am not one who believes all the unsubstantiated talk about the Mets lowering payroll. I believe it will be “roughly the same” so for me the question is does Holliday fit financially? I think it depends on what the market will bear.
Given Omar’s modus operandi as a guy who, either through free agency or trade tends to acquire one or two of the biggest names/contracts and then fills in with slop elsewhere it is easy for me to visualize the team with Holliday, Lackey and then filling the rest of the roster holes by going trick-or-treating at the scary house no one likes to approach.
trs86
10/9/2009-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
Well based on most accounts they have 28-32M to spend. That’s going to be tough to get both of those. I would imagine it’s either or unless they can dump Castillo or Perez.
GravediggerHebner
10/9/2009-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
I agree that if those numbers are accurate it is far less likely but I am also countering those numbers somewhat by factoring in Omar’s growing sense of job mortality.
They are just words, but if we are to believe Jeff Wilpon’s words that Omar will (I paraphrase) “get what he asks for” I can see him asking for both as his job saving big splash.
GravediggerHebner
10/9/2009-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
I feel this way because it is easier for me to believe Omar will operate this way, in keeping with his past methods of “the big splash”, than it is for me to believe he will “get creative” as some like to put it with smaller, perhaps more thoughtful, moves.
trs86
10/9/2009-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
It’s possible for sure. I would think it more likely if they could find a taker for some of Perez.
dirtysanchez
10/9/2009-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
I honestly dont think ANYONE would take perez at 12 mil. We would eat a substancial amount of that contract…
trs86
10/9/2009-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
A taker for SOME of Perez. LOL. Like 6M of it maybe.
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
As TRS and I were talking about before, this offseason could be very interesting with Omar operating as a potential lame duck.
The last time he was a lame duck he dealt Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips for Bartolo Colon.
I’m not sure I like the idea of Omar being backed into a corner.
stickguy
10/9/2009-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
I thought it was “get what he needs”? For sure, he isn’t getting a 200mill payroll if he asks for it!
SO I guess it depends on how Jeffy defines “need”
anyway, as bad as that play hurt, I don’t think it would sway the decision. He played too good for them this year for that.
you will know though at the start of game 3. I wouldn’t be surpirsed to see him getting a standing O when he is announced.
Besides, the Cards haven’t los tyet. If they come back and win the series (especially if Holliday has a big hand in it), all for sure will be forgotten.
take game 3 and 4 at home, then come back to LA for a game 5 with probably wainright again. They got a chance. I don’t think the SPs for LA in the next 2 games are that great, right?
GravediggerHebner
10/9/2009-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
Vicente Padilla & Chad Billingsley
trs86
10/9/2009-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
All the SP for both teams is pretty damn good.
But sure they could comeback and win it. That was kind of the premise of the post though, if they lose…
CaseStreet
10/9/2009-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
trs, by most accounts, the Mets will be at $110M after arbitration and raises.
So, the FO can spend $30M to get them to their pre-season salary of $139M or $40M to get them to their end of season salary of $149M.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/offseason-outlook-new-york-mets.html
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/new-york-mets.html
trs86
10/9/2009-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
Case, how many times will we go over this? I am telling you that once you go in and factor every guy on the 40 man this year and everyone next year IN MY OPINION that’s all we got. MLBtraderumors did not account for all of the 40man spots that will have to be filled that are not on the MLBcontract spreadsheet.
trs86
10/9/2009-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
The Mets have 107.8 at LEAST tied up with
Beltran, Johan, Perez, Franky, Wright, Castillo, Reyes, Maine, Pelfrey, Feliciano, Reed, Sullivan, Pagan, Stokes, Parnell, Murphy, Frenchy and Niese.
That’s 18 players, they still need another 22 players.
CaseStreet
10/9/2009-1:15pm at 1:15 pm (UTC -4)
That’s besides the point. Since when does Opening Day payroll mean the 40 man roster?
Whenever you hear a team’s payroll discussed, it’s always for the 25 man roster, not the 40 man.
Even Cot’s has it for the 25 man roster. Anywhere you look it’s for the 25 man roster.
The Mets don’t pay for the guys who are not on the 25 man roster unless they call them up. Even then it’s at the minimum.
The real question is will the Mets go into Opening Day w/ a 25 man salary of $140M or $150M?
dirtysanchez
10/9/2009-1:32pm at 1:32 pm (UTC -4)
ill say $160m bob
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
For luxury tax purposes, the salary for the entire 40 man roster is computed.
CaseStreet
10/9/2009-1:59pm at 1:59 pm (UTC -4)
and that’s $170M for 2010
trs86
10/9/2009-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
And coaches and spring training invites I think.
trs86
10/9/2009-2:41pm at 2:41 pm (UTC -4)
It’s not besides the point at ALL. The Mets according to your source had an “opening day” payroll of 139.6M. That stat INCLUDED 39 players.
Their 25 man roster would have been significantly less.
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-2:46pm at 2:46 pm (UTC -4)
Why doesn’t someone just go on to Cot’s and do the math?
trs86
10/9/2009-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, I have.
That is how I came up with my 28-32M.
Also, I solved the missing 10M mystery and here comes the fire Omar chants. These also count towards that 149M
Tony Armas Jr. — $800,000
Valerio De Los Santos — $495,000
Matt DeSalvo — $415,000
Elmer Dessens — $600,000
Nelson Figueroa — $450,000
Casey Fossum — $600,000
Freddy Garcia — $1,500,000
Andy Green — $420,000
Livan Hernandez — $1,000,000
Bobby Kielty — $600,000
Rob Mackowiak — $600,000
Tom Martin — $600,000
Kyle Snyder — $575,000
Jose Valentin — $800,000
Ron Villone — $600,000
trs86
10/9/2009-2:51pm at 2:51 pm (UTC -4)
Based on counting JUST the 25 man to open the season it would have been around 135M.
Now another question has to be, where did we add 10M to payroll during the season? Frenchy and Church as an even swap as the Braves paid us money and Wagner saved us 3M.
Also, I haved looked that spreadsheet up and down and still can’t come up with a way that our payroll last year started at 149M for our 40 man much less our 25 man, unless that included managers, coaches and GM’s.
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
I actually just tallied up approximately $115m for the 25 guys who started the season on the Mets active roster (not asure exactly how much Pelfrey got paid this season).
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-3:13pm at 3:13 pm (UTC -4)
By the way, the fact that the Braves paid certain money does not relieve the Mets of the concern on their salary cap for luxury purposes… at least I do not think.
I forgot to add Wagner’s salary to my 25 man roster… I did not put any DL players. Even with Wagner I am still $10m shorter than you for the opening day 25 man.
trs86
10/9/2009-3:17pm at 3:17 pm (UTC -4)
You have to count Wagner as opening day. And Pelfrey was at 2.375. Also, signing bonuses count. The link he provided from Cots is pretty good. There is a spreadsheet there.
Any way, based on my count for our opening day payroll for next season using ALL in house guys we are at 108.91. Our opening day payroll last season JUST counting 25M was around 135.75. So that would give us 26.85M to spend plus the league minimum salary those players were replacing. Thus if you add 3 players (a SP, LF and Bench) you could add another 1.2M giving you 28M.
trs86
10/9/2009-3:18pm at 3:18 pm (UTC -4)
I think you may be right on that for luxury tax and cash paid. Not sure. But would that mean that Sheff counted against us?
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
If I am right it would seem to mean Sheff would count against us.
But I don’t know if I am right.
trs86
10/9/2009-3:40pm at 3:40 pm (UTC -4)
Take a look at the bottom of the thread and check that link about cash.
GravediggerHebner
10/9/2009-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
Of course, Roy Halladay meets all of Omar’s qualifications for acquisition too. Since simply spending money on Lackey makes more sense than trading players plus spending even more money on re-upping Halladay, look for Omar to go all in on Halladay.
If a desperate Omar does truly ask his ownership for what he wants, Met fans may be looking at a Happy Halladay Holliday holiday season.
CaseStreet
10/9/2009-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
+1
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
I think the premise of this post is flawed in an inconsequential but signficant way. I think St. Louis fans are known primarily for their loyalty. I don’t know if they’re intelligent or not (I presume they are as intelligent as any other baseball fan) but you won’t ever hear jeers for St. Louis players while at Busch Stadium; it’s almost an unwritten rule.
That said, I don’t think it will be feasible financially for Holliday to return to St. Louis. I’m sure, however, the fans would welcome him back and that will be evident by the reception he receives in St. Loo tomorrow.
dirtysanchez
10/9/2009-1:27pm at 1:27 pm (UTC -4)
and plus…hes represented by scott boras….
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-1:58pm at 1:58 pm (UTC -4)
Buddy Harrelson and Pete Rose were apparently tied for second behind Obama for the Nobel Peace Prize.
CaseStreet
10/9/2009-2:10pm at 2:10 pm (UTC -4)
the terrorists agree with you, they preferred John Rocker
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
heh heh. that’s a good one!
Kingman 26
10/11/2009-11:51pm at 11:51 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, Sarah Palin was in there too, but she took herself out of the running when she found out the prize didn’t come with another bright red stewardess suit, and that she’d look bad if she didn’t give the money to charity.
Not to worry though, she is all the way up to 3 syllable words in her little workshops with Rush and Glen…
trs86
10/9/2009-3:31pm at 3:31 pm (UTC -4)
Wanny take a look at this and you can see what they opening day was close to. You can take off a few league minimum guys.
http://letsgomets.vox.com/library/post/2009-mets-payroll-as-of-12509.html
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-3:41pm at 3:41 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not sure what this is showing me.
But if they are right that the Mets paid Schoenweis $1.5m this year then I must be wrong about Sheffield and Francoeur’s full contracts applying to the Mets’ payroll.
It would seem to make sense that the portion paid by teams should count agains their own payroll, otherwise big market teams could release whomever they want and sign new players while spending way more than the luxury cap but not officially exceeding it.
trs86
10/9/2009-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
Just an easier view of what was close to the opening day roster salaries. I still get about 135M. But either way that only gives us about 28M to spend.
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-3:51pm at 3:51 pm (UTC -4)
This term “opening day roster salaries” is confusing. This list has more than 30 names on it.
I think, as I wrote below, that it is a list of all of the guaranteed major league contracts.
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-3:55pm at 3:55 pm (UTC -4)
So by my count, the opening day 25 man roster of active players + Wagner on the DL is about $125m.
Remember, Livan and some of the other players on this list were not on the active opening day roster.
This all supports the conclusion that the entire 40 man roster is what is considered when constructing the team and establishing its payroll. And it only makes sense that way as follows:
if the Mets’ concern is to stay below the luxury tax threshold and retain a little maneuverability during the season, then they need to consider the entire 40 man when establishing its limit because that is how the luxury tax is computed.
trs86
10/9/2009-3:58pm at 3:58 pm (UTC -4)
I am still coming up with about 135M for opening day.
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-4:10pm at 4:10 pm (UTC -4)
I get $134m when counting the 25 active guys on opening day (does not include livan or sheff) PLUS Wagner and Redding on the DL and the partial salaries of Schoenweis and Duaner.
trs86
10/9/2009-4:13pm at 4:13 pm (UTC -4)
Rotation:
Johan Santana 20
Mike Pelfrey 2.2375
Oliver Perez 12
John Maine 2.6
Livan Hernandez (Hernandez will be added to the roster for the Mets’ fifth game, in Miami on April 11)
Rodriguez 9.1677
Putz 6
Green .471
Feliciano 1.6125
Parnell .4
Stokes .4095
O’Day .406
Wagner 10.5
Catchers:
Brian Schneider 4.9
Ramon Castro 2.625
Infielders:
Carlos Delgado 12
Luis Castillo 6.25
David Wright 7.75
Jose Reyes 6.125
Anderson 1.150
Alex Cora 2
Nick Evans .403
(Evans will begin the season on the big league roster. The plan is to return him to the Minor Leagues when Hernandez is added to the roster)
Outfielders:
Carlos Beltran 20.071
Ryan Church 2.8
Murphy .401
Jeremy Reed .925
Tatis 1.7
That gives me 134.9042.
trs86
10/9/2009-4:18pm at 4:18 pm (UTC -4)
Wagner and Redding would have to count and I forgot Redding so throw another 2.25 in there for a total of 137.1542.
We have 108.91 returning for an opening day roster based on ALL in house guys and MY estimations for arbitration. and would result in a difference of 29.44M if you took out 3 league minimum guys and added them into the available money. Thus that would give us around 28-32M to spend pending actual arbitration results.
Man, I feel like I have done this before.
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-4:20pm at 4:20 pm (UTC -4)
We are in a agreement: I was doing rough calculations.
But you left out Redding’s $2.25m and the partial salaries of Schoenweis and Sanchez (if indeed they do apply).
So $138 is a fair number to state as 2009′s opening day payroll for the Mets’ 25 man roster (plus DL). The entire 40 man probably adds another $8-10m.
trs86
10/9/2009-5:30pm at 5:30 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, Hard for us not to be in agreement here. Money as subjective as stats.
So are we also in agreement that regardless of opening day or 40 Man that the Mets have about 28-32M to spend if they are keeping the same payroll as last year?
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-5:43pm at 5:43 pm (UTC -4)
Yes. To the extent that the holdovers will actually be holdovers.
trs86
10/9/2009-5:45pm at 5:45 pm (UTC -4)
Right, but my point with those hold overs is that unless we are adding payroll those hold overs most likely the money won’t change.
Example, replace Reed with another bench guy and it will still cost you about the same. Replace Green in the pen and it will still cost you about the same. If replacing any of those guys cost you MORE than what I counted for those guys then we have even less to spend.
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-3:43pm at 3:43 pm (UTC -4)
As best I can tell that list encompasses all of the guaranteed major league contracts whether those players were on the opening day 25 man or not. It does not include the entire 40 man roster, though.
I didn’t (and won’t) check the math.
trs86
10/9/2009-3:55pm at 3:55 pm (UTC -4)
I unfortunately did because I am bored. Yeah, those were the guaranteed spots.
The pitchers from what I can tell are correct, the hitters you would take off a few league minimum guys.
Either way that would end up with about 135M
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-3:58pm at 3:58 pm (UTC -4)
You’re still really confusing me with some of the language you’re using, i.e. “guaranteed spots.” (pardon a lawyer for needing to be more precise, I’ve been conditioned)
The list in the link is not the “opening day roster,” it is a list of the guaranteed major league contracts (some of which belong to players who began the season in the minor leagues). There are more than 25 players on the list.
CaseStreet
10/9/2009-5:31pm at 5:31 pm (UTC -4)
ok, so will 2010 payroll be same as last years opening day payroll ($139) or will it be closer to end of year payroll ($149)?
trs86
10/9/2009-5:36pm at 5:36 pm (UTC -4)
How did we add 10M in payroll?
trs86
10/9/2009-5:43pm at 5:43 pm (UTC -4)
I am confused as who did we bring in? Frenchy’s was offset, Castro and Wagner were gone and everyone else was on the 40 man at league minimum or replaced someone on the 40 man.
wannybackstra
10/9/2009-5:56pm at 5:56 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure where the additional $10m came from but it must be a combination of pro-rated signing bonuses (i.e. if a player has a $2.5m signing bonus on a 4 year conract, 600k applies per season), guaranteed major league contracts to the Cory Sullivans and others of the world, Schoenweis and Duaner, and the parade of losers who made their way through town for a quick pay check (i.e. Angel Berroa).
Also, I think when guys like Ramon Martinez were DL’d for the year they continued to get their major league salary, not minor league).
Who knows? The Cot’s spreadsheet doesn’t account for it.
stickguy
10/9/2009-5:58pm at 5:58 pm (UTC -4)
were you counting sheffield in the opening day figure? Can’t remember when it was that he showed up.
I do recall the discussion at the time, and I think cots 9or some place the info was coming from) counted his full salary against the mets for luxery tax purposes.
trs86
10/9/2009-6:45pm at 6:45 pm (UTC -4)
No we did not include but .4M for Sheff.
trs86
10/9/2009-5:38pm at 5:38 pm (UTC -4)
(and we have determined that was 27 guys that added up to 137Mish)
CaseStreet
10/9/2009-5:57pm at 5:57 pm (UTC -4)
okay, so ur saying the opening day 25 man payroll will be $137ish?
We have approx. $110 returning.
that leaves approx $28-$32M to complete the 25 man, correct?
But if you remember, what we heard at the begining of the season was that the Mets didn’t spend up to the limit because they wanted room for mid-year trades, if needed.
After calling up so many guys (Figgy, Fossum, etc.) it looks like the total salary for the 25 man increased to $149M.
Maybe Omar does the same. He’ll keep the 25 man salary close to $140 w/ room to add mid-year.
Or maybe he’ll get the guys he wants now and get start closer to $150.
trs86
10/9/2009-6:49pm at 6:49 pm (UTC -4)
But they were replacing those guys with guys from the 40 man so the payroll did not increase.
Now IF your contention is that the Mets may ADD payroll THEN you could balloon up to the 150M but then counting our 40 man and coaches, salaries, etc we would be pushing the luxury tax.
CaseStreet
10/9/2009-11:59pm at 11:59 pm (UTC -4)
they’re going to have to if you want Holliday and Lackey.
stickguy
10/9/2009-6:01pm at 6:01 pm (UTC -4)
you guys are making this way too difficult.
it doesn’t matter what the payroll was, or how it was calculated.
If the premise is they will spend basically the same (or same – xmill)), all you need to know is who is getting a raise, and who will be gone from the team.
so, add the slaaries leaving and subtract the raises from that, and there is your $ freed up to play with. Whick, from the work TRS has done, is ~30million +/- a few among friends.
trs86
10/9/2009-6:50pm at 6:50 pm (UTC -4)
It is more complicated than that, however, you are correct that it is 28-32M.
stickguy
10/9/2009-10:34pm at 10:34 pm (UTC -4)
I hate the yankees.
but at least now we know what the mets need to do to win next year. Spend 50 million on a couple of new bats.
maybe the angels will handle them this year.
CaseStreet
10/9/2009-11:58pm at 11:58 pm (UTC -4)
Yup, very sad, though the Mets may be following suit. Let’s hope the market is favorable to the Mets this off-season.
C.C.($23M) – Santana ($23M)
A.J.($16.5M) – Lackey (seeking same as A.J.)
Tex($22.5M) – Holliday (seeking same as Tex)
Santana – Lackey – Perez – Pelf – Maine
Castillo – Reyes – Wright – Holliday – Beltran – Francouer – Murphy – Catcher
stickguy
10/10/2009-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
lackey might get close to that, but I really don’t see Holliday coming close to that number, unless the yankees decide they have to have him.
Nice player, but if your team is going to have a budget, much better to spread that much coin out on a few good ones instead.
If they can get him for 5/80? Sure, still expensive, but what the heck, it ain’t my money. Then put the savings into better pitching.
trs86
10/10/2009-1:44pm at 1:44 pm (UTC -4)
Everything I have seen is that he was seeking 5/90.
prismo
10/10/2009-4:52am at 4:52 am (UTC -4)
HAHA LETS INSULT THE METS BECAUSE OF A MISPLAY THAT A GUY ON ANOTHER TEAM MADE
HILARIOUS
prismo
10/10/2009-4:52am at 4:52 am (UTC -4)
And no I’m not drunk, just working on a Saturday morning.