In Marty Noble’s new mailbox article: Inbox: Do the Mets need an overhaul?  Marty refers to the Mets as boxed in from any real changes.Â
Specifically he mentions Beltran:
“I’m not sure the Mets would agree to a deal for “decent” young players in exchange for Beltran. And how many clubs are looking to assume a $37 million obligation for two years? Moreover, who plays center field for the Mets? Beyond that, are other clubs sure about his physical condition?”
What are your thoughts on this? I do not feel that a major overhaul that he describes is needed. He mentions the weak FA class. I agree it is very top heavy. But he also takes his time to mention how if the Mets traded Murphy and Pagan for a LF they would need a 1B.  If they traded Pelfrey and …. they would need a starter.  In my opinion it was a terrible job analyzing the Mets current situation and the options they have.
I do feel that the Mets have some valuable players to trade on the MLB and MILB rosters and there are quite a few valuable FA that could fit the mold of the Mets needs. With 28-32 Million to spend I don’t see this being a quite off-season where the Mets sit back because they are boxed in.
At this point I am still torn as to if we should solve these issues strictly through FA, Trade or a little of both. I see dangers in Holliday and Lackey as well as detractors from trading top prospects in what many refer to as a thin system (I disagree). What is clear is that we will have plenty to talk about this off-season.
139 comments
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
Cannot trade Beltran in my opinion, not right now. If we miss the playoffs or are 10+ games out at the trade deadline in 2010, then sure.
He just brings too much, can hit anywhere from 2–5 very well, runs great even when not sliding, and I think we all at times underappreciate how good of a center fielder he is.
Personally, I am 100% focused on starters this offseason. I hope Omar is offering prospects for Halladay as we speak, I hope he is considering what Hudson may cost, I hope he is preparing a reasonable, not over-the-top offer for Lackey, and I hope he is laughing heartily at the folks who think the Cubs will give us Zambrano.
We must change the Pelf-Maine-Ollie as 2-3-4 dynamic, hopefully long before pitchers and catchers report.
If we are going to have the same payroll, we really can, in all likelihood, afford two of Halladay, Lackey, and Hudson/someone else.
udontmesswthejohan
10/14/2009-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
If Beltran would fetch two can’t miss prospects (one pitcher and one player), then maybe, otherwise I agree with you. Trading him would only create more holes. At thsi point I’m not sure how anyone can argue the value of this guy.
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, and he is only 32. He may have another 4–6 really good years.
And after all, other than Hanley Ramirez and maybe Tommy Hanson, how many prospects are “can’t miss?” Not too many.
Maybe we could land another package similar to what Omar gave up for Colon. Lee, Sizemore, and Phillips might be worth it…
fongy2
10/14/2009-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
4-6 yrs might be a stretch,remember no more ‘roids.
But I’ll take the last couple yrs still on his contract of
him being Carlos Beltran.
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
And I hope you have some evidence that Beltran did ‘roids.
Did Jack Ruby have anything to do with it? Remember, the KC mob used to have a big role in Dallas and Carlos did start out in KC….
fongy2
10/14/2009-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
THey’ve got a Mob in KC??
What are they into?,,shaking down farmers and roadside
BBQ shacks??
Sorry, didnt mean to imply Beltran did ‘roids at all!
I thought you’d understand what I meant, sometimes it
just doesn’t translate when typing.
What I meant was that prior to the ‘roid era, we looked
at a player over 35 as being on the downside,except
for Catchers who usually faded pretty quickly after about
32/33. The ‘roid era ofcourse skewed all that which
just feeds into my ongoing argument on the thought
of the greatness of guys like Bonds and Clemens.
Didnot mean to disparage Bel-Tron.
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
Oops, totally misunderstood, and I agree!
Yeah, the KC mob does not exist much anymore, but were really important from about the 40s–70s. They were instrumental in the KC jazz scene, helping McShann, Parker, Basie, Mary Lou Williams and others get started, as the mobs in NY, Chi, and NO helped propagate jazz.
And they had a huge role in Las Vegas back in the day—remember the scene in the movie Casino where one of the bosses keeled over and died because the Feds found his books of records he kept of illegal Vegas dealings–well, that was based on the real life underboss of KC!
fongy2
10/14/2009-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
I know, I know, I was just joking about
the KC mob thing. I’m a historian too
pal. Just couldn’t think of any thing
witty about KC!
Except for the fact that I convinced
myself they could make a run at the
Central this season.
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
Gotcha!
And wow, thinking they could make a run at the division this year was very creative indeed!
fongy2
10/14/2009-12:58pm at 12:58 pm (UTC -4)
True, but back in March I was looking
for a sleeper team somewhere.
I had the Redsox @ 95wins
Wildcard,Yanks or Rays,both 90-92wins.
And The Angels @ 90wins in the AL.
AND The Phils @ 92wins,
The Cards @90wins AND
The Dodgers @95wins in the AL.
I thought US and The Giants would win85+gms
and battle it out for the NL WildCard.
So, overall I was pretty close.
I also called the Cubs about a .500 team
feeling they had a bad mix there and
Bradley for DeRosa would be a disaster
AND Dempster never repeats his’08season.
I was very surprised about the ROX who I
thought were in total rebuilding mode
and likely to move Hawpe and Atkins.
I also thought the Reds would be a .500
type team b/c of their SPing and youngsters
getting better. Injuries killed them as well. But overall my over/unders were
pretty darn good this season.
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
And no, the Mets are not boxed in…they are only boxed in by the limits of their creativity and the limits of what Freddy decides to spend in 2010.
stickguy
10/14/2009-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
man, you are a buzz kill this AM.
I am not worried about the payroll (assuming it will be roughly the same, or what it needs to be. But not a lot more!). It is the “limits of their creativity” that I don’t have faith in.
I would love to see whoever you consider to be the best GM (from a moving/shaking standpoint, not just spending FA $) get a crack at the Mets roster and 30+/- mill this off season. Say theo and his team?
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
Not sure what in the world you mean….I was being optimistic, and the “limits of their creativity” did not preclude getting Johan for next to nothing, and maybe they can do the same with Halladay.
And I also did not criticize Omar or suggest that payroll would be lowered.
My intent was to say that we can be creative, spend the same as 2009, and very possibly dramatically improve the team without trading Beltran.
fongy2
10/14/2009-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
My friend you’re making too much sense for some fellow Met fans
to understand. And b/t/w, good job explaining your respect of the
phillies yesterday(I just read it this morning).
Thats exactly how I feel, and again I have a hard time understanding
how any Met fan can root for the yankees under any circumstance, against
anyone. Beltran can’t be moved. However,if someone like the Redsox
approached the Mets with a crazy offer you’d think Omar would atleast
discuss it with Beltran and see if its to everyones benefit to do it.
stickguy
10/14/2009-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
nothing persoanl. It was just a snide crack at Omar and the gang not having (IMO) the creativity or brainpower to make significant improvements that don’t involve spending a lot of $ on FAs. Stuff liek creative trades (and getting Johan was well palyed, but as far from creative as you can get).
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
Getting Johan was not creative? When the media seemed to think Reyes or Pelf would be necessary, and we were competing against the Yanks and Sox, and we got him without trading Jose, Pelf, FMart, Parnell, or any of our top players OR prospects?
Not creative?
I disagree.
fongy2
10/14/2009-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
Well, the sox and yanks sort of dropped out.
stickguy
10/14/2009-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
pateint with just a touch of luck or right place, right time. That, and having the deep pockets to pay him! It was also all over the media that he was going to be traded.
When I say creative, I mean making a shrewd move that people look back at and say wow.
Trading F Mart for Garza would have been creative.
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
I get it, when Omar signs Ollie, he is a moron, but when he gets Johan for four 2nd or 3rd tier non-prospects, he is lucky. I get it.
“When I say creative, I mean making a shrewd move that people look back at and say wow.”—Like Johan for Gomez, Mulvey, Guerra, and Humber?
fongy2
10/14/2009-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Not lucky but fortunate!
Look, this guy has lived a charmed life
b/c if not for the fact that the yankees
weren’t that interested in Beltran and
Johan, they wouldn’t be here.
Then think of the likely chain of events
which would have lead to who knows who
would have been our CF and ace SP
and where we’d be today.
stickguy
10/14/2009-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think we are going to agree on this point. Obvious and expensive is not creative.
TRS has some creative ideas. Picking up delgados option and hoping he stays healthy is obvious. Picking it up and flipping him for a guy like Morales or a SP is creative.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
Except for the likelihood that Anaheim would probably not have any interest in trading good young players for the aging and oft injured Delgado.
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks Wanny…wasn’t sure how to respond to the ridiculousness of re-signing Delgado and then having another team take a re-signed, repeatedly injured older player and sending us prospects for him.
trs86
10/14/2009-3:42pm at 3:42 pm (UTC -4)
The Delgado thing was last year. The Angels after losing Tex were most likely going to be very desperate for power. Not even they knew that Morales would produce like he did or they would not have kept him on the AAAA train the previous years. So yes I think they could have worked around a Morales Delgado deal with a few more players involved. Now, there’s no option and no one would trade for him if there was.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)
The reason they can’t trade Beltran right now is that his value is certainly not at its peak. His knees will make it tough for another team to consider the price.
But I think everyone has to be available for the right price. If Beltran is healthy he could easily fetch the Mets two players who can help now and later.
Anyway, Marty Noble is an ass. Doesn’t he realize that every trade involves removing something from your team? Doesn’t he think that if the Mets traded Beltran, for example, they could get another outfielder as part of the deal?
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
Marty Noble is beyond an ass…my favorite is when he lauds someone like Steve Trachsel, who wins 15 games with a horrible WHIP and ERA because the team scores 9 runs a game for him in all of his wins. But, as it is clearly still 1972, we must judge pitchers by wins.
fongy2
10/14/2009-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
And whether or not he has a good relationship with them!
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
Ah, perhaps THE most valid way to judge a player in Marty’s world!
fongy2
10/14/2009-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
Most of these sportswriters are exactly that way.
And while I’m at it, hey Mike Lupica….STFU!
You’re getting closer and closer to Keith Olbermann territory!
trs86
10/14/2009-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
I still think the DiceK, Ellsbury, prospect deal makes sense for both teams. As long as the Mets could convince FA to come here with that extra money.
fongy2
10/14/2009-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
For yrs and yrs now,its driven me crazy that Marty Noble covers the Mets.
Hes as anti-Mets as Larry Brooks is anti-NY Rangers…And how ’bout them Rangers!
Thats to the 5 other hockey fans still out there.
Brock and Wanny are right on about this, you can’t trade Beltran for a number of reasons.
You also can’t trade Pelf. The idea is to add to what we have not subtract or make a
side ways move. What the hell would be the point of that?
And from earlier,while I dont want to sound like the President of the John Lackey fan club,
someone is gonna have to show me as good an option(or better) before I’m off that bandwagon.
The Wolfs,Garlands and Hudsons of the world ain’t gonna cut it if the idea is to return to
being a serious contender. And yes while I do know Lackey has missed a couple weeks each
of the past two seasons,its been nothing serious and most importantly its been nothing
with the structure of the arm. Sign Lackey!
prismo
10/14/2009-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
Can’t trade Beltran.
His salary’s too big.
He’s coming off a mostly injured season.
Because of those two, wouldn’t get nearly enough in return.
Stupid idea, don’t even think about it.
stickguy
10/14/2009-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
not a stupid idea, and it (like just about every other possible move) should be thought about.
If it turns out they can’t get a return worth making the trade, you don’t do it. But you never know when some other Gm has a major woody for a guy, and you sure won’t know until you ask.
Wh really knows if Theo say is going to look at him and see 30/100 with GG skills and decide that he needs that to fill out his lineup?
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Pretty stupid idea.
He is not that old, seemed to come back just fine from injury, and losing him would create a gigantic hole in the lineup and in the field.
And the Red Sox spend like us, not like the Yanks. No evidence at all that they are about to start spending like crazy.
stickguy
10/14/2009-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
so I think you are saying the return wouldn’t make it worth trading him. If not, the stupid idea would be trading him for a lousy package. Exploring the idea would not be stupid.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
But for Beltran’s knees I don’t think it would be out of the question for the Sox to consider a trade for Beltran. They are likely going to try to improve their offense.
If Jason Bay leaves I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Theo made a call to see if Omar would consider it. The options for impact bats are few this offseason.
As TRS suggested yesterday, a package including Ellsbury and Dice-K would be worth considering and is not all that unrealistic. Plus, shedding Dice-K’s salary makes Beltran reasonably affordable for Boston.
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
I sure would not want Dice K. Who knows how many innings and pitches he has on that arm, and if he will ever touch 2007 numbers again. He averaged well under 6 IP last year, and was out most of this year.
Ellsbury is good, but he is not Beltran.
I just think that unless we were overwhelmed, trading Beltran tears giant holes in the lineup and in the field.
fongy2
10/14/2009-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed!, If they offer Ellsbury and Buckholz or Bard
though………………………………
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
Bucholz, yes. But I wouldn’t trade Beltran for a relief pitcher.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
Ellsbury may not be Beltran but he’s likely to still be Ellsbury long after Beltran is no longer Beltran, which could be as soon as right now. If his knee requires surgery this year, he’s basically done as a Met.
I think Ellsbury would be a great player in the spacious Citi outfield. He had 10 triples in Boston (and against AL East pitching) with the short RF and green monster in LF.
Dice K is an injury risk for sure. But so too is Beltran. I don’t think Dice-K’s injury has ever been officially diagnoses so he’ll fit right in here! He’s never been a big IP/Start guy because he walks a lot of hitters. But unlike Pelfrey and other Mets pitchers who walk everyone, he also strikes them out at around 1 per inning.
This deal is not likely to happen. But this type of deal would be worth investigating.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
By the way, when Dice K returned in September he finished the year 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA with 20ks in 24 IP.
fongy2
10/14/2009-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
Good thing the WBC had no effect on the outcome
of any teams this season!
Heres hoping we send the entire roster in 2012!
I’m sure the RedSox feel the same way!
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
Matsuzaka missed a few starts last year too. Was that in anticipation of the WBC?
It was also rumored that he regularly pitched more than 150 pitches per start in Japan.
fongy2
10/14/2009-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
Wanny, I love ya BUT read the Boston
papers about the Sox’ FO and THEIR feeling
on Dice’K, Big Papi and the WBC.
Additionly take a look at the rosters of
every other team and see what various players who had little to no injury history
and played in that dopey tourny provide
their bosses this season.
Again, I’m not saying it had a direct,
no doubt about it negative effect
BUT someone tell me what positive
effect it had on those players,the owners
who pay them millions of dollars and
the fans who support those players,
owners and teams.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
By the way, here are the WBC 2009 rosters:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/2009_World_Baseball_Classic_(Rosters)
Other than the Mets players I do not see a heck of a lot of players who fell victim to catastrophic injuries.
The only ones I see are Peavy, and his injury was an ankle, Reyes and Matsuzaka (Putz was already injured).
Harldy an epidemic.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
There’s the link to the rosters. I’ve given it to you before.
You tell me who the players are who suffered so much (and you do recognize that some players are going to get injured eventually anyway, right?)
Big Papi? He played 150 games this year… 50 more than he did last year!!
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-1:23pm at 1:23 pm (UTC -4)
Edinson Volquez was maybe the only other significant injury.
Hmmm… Dusty Baker or a few April extra innings?
fongy2
10/14/2009-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
Again, I didnt say epidemic,what I said
was it had an overall negative effect
and what was/is the point.
In addition to injury you’ve also got
to look at the down seasons by a bunch
of guys who spent most of their time playing intense playoff type gms intead
of goofing around during the first few
weeks of ST,like ballplayers have done
for 150yrs. And for what?
Baseball isnt already loved in Asia,
South American and The Carribean?
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-1:28pm at 1:28 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t care about the WBC at all. It means nothing to me.
But I just don’t see how its caused any negative effect (or positive for that matter) and I definitely don’t see evidence of any unusual number of injuries.
fongy2
10/14/2009-1:34pm at 1:34 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah and Ordonez,Lindstrom,Pedroia,Guillen,
ARod…and on and on, either injured or
below expected returns on players being
paid tens and in some cases hundreds of
millions of dollars to play key roles for
their teams in 2009.
Maybe it wouldn’t have made a dif but
it certainly didnt help them, their teams,
their fans or the city’s which support
them. So, how again is that dopey tourney
helpful???
fongy2
10/14/2009-1:46pm at 1:46 pm (UTC -4)
Ya know, no offense Wanny BUT you were
a person BEFORE you became an Lawyer…
Right?..I didn’t say it did have a negitive
effect b/c I (like you )
don’t know. I do know though that It didn’t
have a positive effect AND I do know that
my concerns in Feb and March about exposing
too many of our players and all our key
players resulted(for whatever reason)
in everyone we sent there spending a
whole lot of time on the DL and destroying
our season. Now I know as a Lawyer you’re
trained to focus on your case and argue,
defending your case and argument never
giving and inch to the other side for
fear that might somehow open the door
to your argument as being seen as wrong
and thus you lose. BUT I’m not arguing!
Just pointing out that The WBC is only
good for Selig’s resume and nothing else.
And please don’t take offense,its nothing
personal.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-1:46pm at 1:46 pm (UTC -4)
Those really are ridiculous examples.
1. Magglio wasn’t hurt. He was bad for 3/4 of the year. And his numbers follow a three year trend of decline that is not surprising from a 35 year old.
2. When is Lindstrom not hurt?
3. Guillen was already hurt. He played in only 113 games last season.
4. A-Rod? Hard to imagine how he got hurt as a result of the WBC since HE DIDN’T EVEN PLAY. Also hard to believe that a cyst would have formed in his hip because of a few weeks of baseball…
5. Pedroia? What the heck is wrong with him? His numbers weren’t quite as good as last year? They were almost identical to his ROY campaign before his MVP year. He missed 8 games? So what?
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
You didn’t say it did had a negative effect? Really?
“Again, I didnt say epidemic,what I said
was it had an overall negative effect
and what was/is the point.”
-Fongy (today)
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-1:50pm at 1:50 pm (UTC -4)
did “have…”
my typing suffered from the effects of the WBC and your obvious misstatement of your own position.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-1:53pm at 1:53 pm (UTC -4)
And your understanding of lawyering skills is quite poor. Concessions can be very powerful.
But there’s nothing to concede here. I’m not worried about opening doors to anything; I could care less if I’m wrong.
But it’s hard to have a debate with someone who has to resort to backhanded and insulting discussions of someone’s profession/personality, not to mention changes his positions on the fly.
fongy2
10/14/2009-2:04pm at 2:04 pm (UTC -4)
I sorry if that came off as harsh Wanny.
Really, I didnt mean to insult you,really.
I just have a strong distaste for Lawyers.
I’ve dealt with and been friendly with
enough Defense Attys over the past 20+yrs
to have formed a pretty bad opinion of
your profession overall and thats wrong.
Lord knows I’ve known quite a few scumbag
Investigators over the same period of
time and at times didn’t have as much success in certain biz ventures as I
could/should have b/c I refused to play
the games required. I think you have an idea of what I mean. I don’t know ya except
as a fellow Met fan and as both a very
direct and honest person, I again say
I’m sorry for projecting and generalizing.
I’ll leave it at that.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:05pm at 4:05 pm (UTC -4)
Ellsbury is NOT Beltran. But he also cost 400,000 and is under team control for a while. So question is, is Beltran worth 19.5M more?
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-4:08pm at 4:08 pm (UTC -4)
Depends whether you are talking about Beltran or Belle-TRON.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:18pm at 4:18 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, uh I am not sure.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:02pm at 4:02 pm (UTC -4)
I disagree, how do we know how desperate the Redsox may be? Would they rather have 2 years of Beltran or 4 years of Bay?
stickguy
10/14/2009-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think Beltran’s knee is that big of an impedment to trading him right this year (if you wanted to). He seemed fine when he came back to finish the year (hey, amybe that is why he wanted to come back so bad?). That, and any other team would just do an MRI to check the bruise. It was a leg injury, not a structural knee issue, so if the bruise healed and he feels good, NP. I hope.
Also think you can’t trade pelfrey. Really bad timing to give up on a pitcher, when they are right at the point of the learning curve where you get paid off for your patience through the rough times (assuming you do get paid off!). The Mets need more young, cheap SP, not less. He is also the only guy they have (other than Johan, if he is healthy this year) that qualifies as an inning eater or “horse”.
fongy2
10/14/2009-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
Agree with your above 2 posts, Stick. See this is what drives me crazy about Omar,
We’re stuck with a 12million dollar a yr SP who we can barely count on to be in
the rotation let alone be a #3 and win 15gms. Thus, everything we do has to be planned
around the unknown that is Ollie while not knowing what we’ll get,even if hes healthy.
darknova306
10/14/2009-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
We’re certainly getting our money’s worth of walks from Ollie’s spot in the rotation… Oh, but he’s got talent! *rolling my eyes*
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
For just a tiny moment, let’s imagine that Ollie was actually hurt all of last year, and rebounds to have a fine year.
Just like Slappy did, but at a much younger age.
This is most certainly a reasonable possibility.
stickguy
10/14/2009-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
slappy had a much different track record though of playing a certain way at a consistant level.
so while I do think he was hurt, and it wa s mojor contributing factor, if he is healthy in 2010, what the hell is he going to rebound to? Not like he has a track record of putting up fine years!
I do think (hope/pray) he will be a lot better than in 2009. At least good enough to get stuck at the back of the rotation, and outproduce the LLivan’s of the world.
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Absolutely correct that Slappy had a far better track record.
Absolutely incorrect on asking what Ollie can rebound to.
Ollie putting up precisely the numbers he put up in either 2004 or 2007 would be excellent for the number 3 or 4 or 5 spot in the rotation. Check out the stats–he was very good both of those years.
stickguy
10/14/2009-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
2004 was a long time ago. and when you look at his chart, a huge outlier. 2005 and 2006 were years taht would haveembarrassed lance broadway (ers+ dropped form 145 to th emid-60s).
2007 was not too bad, he actually made it back to above average (120) with plenty of IPs. 2008 he dropped to 100, with a ton of walks and less IPs
so I know he has postential, but I still don’t know what he shold be expected to rebound to if healthy.
fongy2
10/14/2009-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
True BUT look how sad that is, he got to the majors in
“02, is being paid 12million, is untradable and we
have to HOPE for 2004or2007. Jeez, what a bad signing.
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t disagree…but my point is threefold:
1) He is only 28, and HAS had good years.
PLUS+
2) He is going nowhere.
EQUALS=
3) Let’s hope he is working hard to get healthy and can rebound to 2004 and 2007 numbers, which while maybe not being worth 12 mil, would be great in the 3,4 or 5 spot.
fongy2
10/14/2009-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed!, Whats done is done, we ca only
hope for the best. This is my point about
what comes next, No question marks…i.e.,
no Wolfs or Hudsons or Sheets or Marquis’
or Hardens. We cant afford to hope and pray
on everyone. We already have enough guys
coming into 2010 we have to do that with!
stickguy
10/14/2009-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
thing is, most every team has at least one of these guys every year. The Yankees (pavano), Phils (eaton), Zito, Schmidt, etc.
So they should be able to (hell, they have to) work around it somehow.
The answer could be trade him while eting $$, do a bad contract swap, bury him in the pen, let him try for the 5 hole, or even cut him if none of the above work.
The answer shure can’t be pencilling him in as the 2nd or 3rd guy in the rotation, just because you screwed up the year before and paid him like one (and passed on other options too).
Every GM makes mistakes. The real dangerous ones though are the GMs that refuse to admit it and recitfy the situation when they do screw up. And which catagory do you put Omar in?
trs86
10/14/2009-4:09pm at 4:09 pm (UTC -4)
Hmmm, neither. I think he has admitted some and denied others.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:08pm at 4:08 pm (UTC -4)
Good thing you are not a Cubs fan. The Mets only have 1.5 bad contracts. The Cubs have 1.5 good ones. Every team has contracts they would take back. Word is the Braves are already miserable with buyers remorse over Lowe.
stickguy
10/14/2009-4:37pm at 4:37 pm (UTC -4)
there was a lively debate over on MLBTR today after someone (had to be a braves fan. I hope) proposed trading lowe for beltran.
actually, the initial proposal was lowe, schaeifer and Teahan (10 YO pitcher with stuff). Maybe it was the braves fan countering with an even swap.
I guess the 3 for would be analagous to the beltran to boston idea, just with a lot less talent coming back!
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-4:40pm at 4:40 pm (UTC -4)
I’d assume that was Julio Teheran (who is talented but is not deemed as a can’t miss) and not Mark Teahan. The Royals are already bummed they gave away Beltran for nothing, the last thing they want to do is send him somewhere else for nothing!
By the way, that trade gets an emphatic no from the Mets side.
jaydh
10/14/2009-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
Not that i would trade beltran right now, but to say his contract is too much is ridiculous. Holliday will get paid around the same yearly amount yet Beltran, when healthy, is a superior player. Now, if you could get something like Ellsbury+Buchholz, you do it. But I dont see it happening.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
yesterday we were discussing Ellsbury + Dice-K. Dice-K makes Beltran something like an $11m player with his offset.
Dice and Beltran are both injury risks. But this trade would potentially help both teams.
That said, Boston may not be interested in dealing Matsuzaka.
stickguy
10/14/2009-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
they porved this year that even when you think you have too much SP, you don’t.
another reason that Pelfrey has to be almost untouchable, and no way they don’t bring Maine back.
I could, however, see Boston doing something like this if the Mets included a younger/cheaper SP like Maine.
jaydh
10/14/2009-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think it would make sense for the mets to make a deal like beltran+maine for ellsbury+diceK….The mets would be better off just trying to acquire another starter via FA or trade.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think I’d include Maine in that deal either. But I would consider making the 2 for 1 deal because it also frees up $8 more cash for the Mets in eahc of the next two years.
Ellsbury, who plays good defense too, would be the CFer and under team control for several years. He would make a nice tandem with Reyes at the top of a traditional NL lineup in a big park.
Dice-K is easily the Mets #2 pitcher if healthy.
While they would be sacrificing much power, there’s also no telling whether Beltran’s knees will be an ongoing problem.
What if the Mets could sign Holliday and make this trade? Signing Holliday is a greater possibility with the additional cash saved.
I think in TRS’s scenairon the Mets would have the money to sign Holliday AND Lackey and have a rotation headed by Johan, Lackey and Dice-K.
jaydh
10/14/2009-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
If the Mets could get Holliday, and this offer was out there, it would seriously have to be considered.
stickguy
10/14/2009-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
they would certainly miss beltrans bat. Do you think they have enough offense if they basically swap beltran and pagan for holliday and ellisbury?
ALthough you can make a pretty damned good rotation out of johan, lackey, dice K , pelfrey, maine and ollie. With Niese, neive, etc. in the pen and/or AAA.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
Ellsbury and Holliday > Beltran and Pagan (who is useless as long as he runs the bases backwards).
Plus, factor in a hopefully healthy Reyes.
fongy2
10/14/2009-1:03pm at 1:03 pm (UTC -4)
b/t/w, RIP, Capt. Lou Albano, a neighbor
of my sister and having meet him, a good
guy.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:13pm at 4:13 pm (UTC -4)
Boston does not need Maine and most likely would not want to tie up 2-3M on a guy who would not make their rotation.
And having 40M to spend on the combinations of FA including Lackey, Holliday, Bay or even still having all your prospects to trade for Halladay.
stickguy
10/14/2009-3:20pm at 3:20 pm (UTC -4)
bottom line, after missing the playoffs in 2007 and 2008 in disappointing fashion, and finishing 2 games under .500 this year, anyone and anything should be on the table to change.
Of course, most teams would have started with the GM, and certainly the manager in this case, but no luck thee. Guess the 1B coach will have to do…
I don’t want to trade Beltran, since he is probably the best overall talent on the team. Not cheap, but at least market correct now on a 2 year deal.
But, and this is a big but, Omar should do due dillegence on overy player on the roster. DW, Johan, Bletran. Not that any of them will, or should, be traded, but the GM needs to have every possible option identified.
It is going to be difficult to patch all the holes this off season through the usual big FA signing, and flyers on some reclaimation projects. And also a key point is they are likely to have a lack of payroll flexibility after 2010.
I know many fans want to win at all costs in 2010 9quite likely, Omar’s horizon only goes through 2010 too, which is scary). But, I want to see moves made to put the team in a position to make the PS in 2010, but also have a basis for a contender for years to come after that.
But, to do this, Omar will have to get creative (threw that in for Kingman), and potentially wheel and deal more to get the right mix of players in. THis includes stars/core guys, support players, and spare parts.
And they can’t all be older, win now guys. Youth, whether from in or outside, has to continue to be infused into the team. If they go “win now” and bring in a couple of mid-30′s guys on 1 year deals, without lowering payroll, it just pushes paying the piper back 1 year, so better make sure to hang onto the near term prospects, or make sure that a ton of money is coming off the books to start the cycle again.
Ideally the FO will start by whiteboarding a 1, 3 and 5 year plan before they start making any moves. But again, how likely is that to happen (or be followed if it is drafted!) by a lame duck GM (even with a 3 year deal, he can be considered lame duck)?
jaydh
10/14/2009-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
I dont care how badly we did last season, there are a certain group of players you just don’t trade. Johan, Wright, Reyes, Frankie, and possibly Beltran. Omar can’t be afraid to trade several prospects or to sign multiple TypeAs.
stickguy
10/14/2009-3:53pm at 3:53 pm (UTC -4)
can’t be afraid NOT to trade them either. Just has to be the right deal.
It also depends on what you invest the savings in, assuming you are lowering payroll as part of the deal (since all of these guys are 10mill+ salaries).
I don’t expect to see any of them traded, but sometimes the unexpected happens.
I would trade K Rod though, but I expect he is probably untradeable due to the contract.
jaydh
10/14/2009-4:10pm at 4:10 pm (UTC -4)
Who would close if you traded Krod?
trs86
10/14/2009-4:16pm at 4:16 pm (UTC -4)
Paplebon of course. LOL.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:15pm at 4:15 pm (UTC -4)
Why are those guys off limits in building a TEAM? If Reyes can get me Crawford and Pena (not likely but just throwing it out there) then why would we not trade him? Only 2 that are off limits to me are Johan and Wright.
jaydh
10/14/2009-4:26pm at 4:26 pm (UTC -4)
Reyes wont get you those 2 players.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:28pm at 4:28 pm (UTC -4)
(not likely but just throwing it out there)
Obviously not. But why would we not listen to teams or throw their names out as available?
trs86
10/14/2009-4:30pm at 4:30 pm (UTC -4)
Example, think about how badly the Redsox would LOVE to have Reyes.
jaydh
10/14/2009-4:30pm at 4:30 pm (UTC -4)
Because Reyes plays a premium position very well and it is very unlikely we get a similar player back. Reyes is ideal for Citifield.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-4:35pm at 4:35 pm (UTC -4)
I think TRS’s point is that it would be close-minded not to at least listen to what other teams offer.
If the Sox offered Pedroia, Ellsbury and Bard you’d have to listen, right? (not that they would but you wouldn’t find out if you flatly refused to trade him)
jaydh
10/14/2009-4:38pm at 4:38 pm (UTC -4)
Yea, and if the Sox offered buchholz, beckett, papelbon, pedroia for wright i’d listen too…but its not happening.
GravediggerHebner
10/14/2009-4:38pm at 4:38 pm (UTC -4)
That’s the way I took it as well. It wasn’t an endorsement of “trade everybody” it was an endorsement of not just saying “no” without at least first hearing the offer.
stickguy
10/14/2009-4:39pm at 4:39 pm (UTC -4)
thank you. that is the point I have been trying to make all day.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:42pm at 4:42 pm (UTC -4)
Of course the Wright trade will not happen. However, although not likely, a DiceK, Ellsbury trade does make some logic for both sides. You may not like the logic but it has merit.
GravediggerHebner
10/14/2009-4:43pm at 4:43 pm (UTC -4)
Hopefully this doesn’t get banned for political content, but I think it was simply an expressed preference for a “no untouchables” policy.
My apologies to “MetsfaninIndia”
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-4:47pm at 4:47 pm (UTC -4)
The Untouchables? Are we allowed to disucss movies?
stickguy
10/14/2009-4:43pm at 4:43 pm (UTC -4)
Exactly.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-3:29pm at 3:29 pm (UTC -4)
I thought President Obama barred whiteboarding?
stickguy
10/14/2009-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
I think it is still OK domestically. Might be a problem with IFAs though.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-4:19pm at 4:19 pm (UTC -4)
Omar Minaya to interview free agents at Gitmo.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:24pm at 4:24 pm (UTC -4)
Be careful. I just MCerroned Fongy and Kingman’s political debate over what talking head was worse.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:25pm at 4:25 pm (UTC -4)
I did leave the debate between you and Fongy. Quite funny to see you guys go at each other instead of me.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-4:28pm at 4:28 pm (UTC -4)
Careful what you ask for.
Kingman 26
10/14/2009-4:28pm at 4:28 pm (UTC -4)
Whoa, you just censored and deleted all of those posts?
In which I was AGAIN simply replying to someone else’s attempt to choose sides by pointing out the venality of each?
And it’s cool for the right-wingers to joke about this stuff down here?
VERY weak.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-4:29pm at 4:29 pm (UTC -4)
Hey, I’m no right winger. We were just joking about the term whiteboarding!
stickguy
10/14/2009-4:41pm at 4:41 pm (UTC -4)
unless you have had to sit in an all day meeting in a conference room while some “project manager” that has no clue about what your group does attempts to whiteboard your job, you have not lived.
GravediggerHebner
10/14/2009-4:44pm at 4:44 pm (UTC -4)
Does that have anything to do with cover sheets for TPS reports?
trs86
10/14/2009-4:46pm at 4:46 pm (UTC -4)
Hey I like whiteboarding. I spent years teaching with a regular chalkboard. Whiteboards are great for my allergies.
stickguy
10/14/2009-4:48pm at 4:48 pm (UTC -4)
An office space comment. Nice.
And TRS, using a whiteboard is not “whiteboarding”, which can also be done on a blackboard!
trs86
10/14/2009-4:51pm at 4:51 pm (UTC -4)
Stick, LOL. I am assuming you knew I was joking? I think?
trs86
10/14/2009-4:32pm at 4:32 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman, you know this is not the right forum. I did not see Wanny’s comment as political. He did not say if it was good or bad. You and Fongy were one upping each other on those talk show host and there are quite a few readers on here that I am sure love Oberman or Rush. Lets leave that for their sites for their love and hate mail.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:27pm at 4:27 pm (UTC -4)
I just saw Rudy Jaramillo is a FA. PLEASE, Omar make this happen. Let him be the bench coach if you will not fire Hojo. Or maybe Hojo would make a good 3B coach.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-4:30pm at 4:30 pm (UTC -4)
Who knows if the guy is the type of strategist you want as a bench coach?
GravediggerHebner
10/14/2009-4:31pm at 4:31 pm (UTC -4)
I wanted Jaramillo as manager back when he was a candidate along with eventual choice Willie Randolph. Oh what might have been. But 2004 was a long time ago, and I wonder if getting Jaramillo now might be like getting Vlad Guerrero now, i.e. too late.
According to the Dallas Morning News: “Rangers officials met with Jaramillo shortly after the season to extend the one-year offer but to also stipulate that the offense needed to improve. The Rangers ranked seventh in runs scored in the AL in 2009, but ranked 11th of 14 teams in batting average (.260) and 12th in on-base percentage (.320). There were concerns about the team’s approach, particularly how often the Rangers swung at first pitches and put themselves in unfavorable hitting counts. Though the Rangers ranked in the middle of the pack in pitches per plate appearance (7th at 3.86), they had the highest percentage of first-pitch swings in the AL (31.1) last season.”
Perhaps Rudy has run his course.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:33pm at 4:33 pm (UTC -4)
I am guessing that after a while you get tired of listening to the same teacher.
GravediggerHebner
10/14/2009-4:34pm at 4:34 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting that a teacher would make that point.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:40pm at 4:40 pm (UTC -4)
That’s why they try not to put a kid that failed back in your class. As a coach I see it all the time. Your seniors learn VERY little from you as seniors.
stickguy
10/14/2009-4:46pm at 4:46 pm (UTC -4)
sometimes kids in a class, like ball players, get to the point where they have learned everything they are going to. And frankly, some are probably unteachable!
so I guess the question is, did his players underperform, and a new coach can get them to improve, or where they just not that good? Or maybe learned all they ever will.
trs86
10/14/2009-4:48pm at 4:48 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think a guy with his track record lost his touch. What is just as likely is that he AND the players got bored of the same ole same ole.
GravediggerHebner
10/14/2009-4:48pm at 4:48 pm (UTC -4)
A different topic swiped from a different blog: Varitek. Ladies and gentlemen what are your opinions on Varitek coming to Citi on a 1 year deal while Thole either develops or doesn’t in the minors?
trs86
10/14/2009-4:50pm at 4:50 pm (UTC -4)
Would it not have to be through trade? He has a 3M player option in Boston and I would find it hard to believe he can do much better on the FA market.
stickguy
10/14/2009-4:52pm at 4:52 pm (UTC -4)
I think it is a team for 6, player for 3 type of deal. So yeah, he would have to decline that and leave his comfort zone.
If he was a FA (and ont an A) and you could get him for 1 year at 1mill, then might be worth a flyer. But not at 3+
trs86
10/14/2009-4:55pm at 4:55 pm (UTC -4)
Well the good news is IF he declined it the Redsox most likely would NOT offer arbitration. They could be on the hook for 6M that way and there is no way that he would not accept arbitration knowing that no team on earth would sign him.
GravediggerHebner
10/14/2009-5:07pm at 5:07 pm (UTC -4)
Varitek’s agent is Scott Boras. If the Mets are nice to Varitek I’m sure Scott would send Holliday along.
GravediggerHebner
10/14/2009-4:53pm at 4:53 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure, but I imagine we could work him into the Beltran for DiceK & Ellsbury deal.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-4:55pm at 4:55 pm (UTC -4)
Boston would probably release him and eat the $3m. So theoretically another team can get him for the minimum.
trs86
10/14/2009-7:00pm at 7:00 pm (UTC -4)
You think they would at 3M? They paid him 5M last year out of good faith. Could not imagine they would release him this year.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-11:39pm at 11:39 pm (UTC -4)
there’s only so much sentimentality one is entitled to after two straight .220 or under seasons. he was good enough in 2007 for them to give him the benefit of the doubt after 2008. but now?
stickguy
10/14/2009-4:50pm at 4:50 pm (UTC -4)
he is not as good as his repuation, his “skill” as the captain won’t translate to the Mets, and he is expensive.
But, he is still better than Schnieder! Even though he pretty much sucks now.
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-4:54pm at 4:54 pm (UTC -4)
I’d prefer a stop-gap who can actually produce a little bit, at least defensively. Tek has nothing left with the mitt on.
stickguy
10/14/2009-5:56pm at 5:56 pm (UTC -4)
well, if they want to discuss the (shold be) open manager’s position with him, I am all ears!
wannybackstra
10/14/2009-11:37pm at 11:37 pm (UTC -4)
someone who can post on mattsblog ought to tell michael baron that varitek’s contract has a player option for $3m and not a buyout. there’s a big difference.
fongy2
10/15/2009-12:07am at 12:07 am (UTC -4)
Typical!, Again Wanny, sorry for being out of line earlier. Been having a real
bad few weeks, unrelated to the escape that is supposed to be baseball and our
Mets. I was a little over the line.