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As most of you guys know, I like Lackey a lot but I am scared off by the talk of 5 years 90Million+. I think especially the 5 years part is what bothers me the most. However, Lackey is a great pitcher and would compliment Santana nicely. After reading a few articles on MLBTR and other sources I got to thinking about Harden and Wolf. Both had very good seasons last year, however both are considered injury risk and based on reports will still only get 1-2 year deals or even a 1 year deal with an option. Price wise it is assumed that both can be had for under 10 million per season. Lets assume that means 9 million each, also lets assume that Lackey can get his 18 million a season. Would the Mets be better off with 1-2 years of Harden and Wolf for 18 million per season or 5 years of Lackey for 18 million a season? I am trying not to spin this at all so excuse me if it looks like I am leaning one way or another. I honestly don’t know what direction I would go in. The perhaps certainty of Lackey or the potential filled and short contracts of the injury concerned Harden and Wolf.Â
Johan, Lackey, Pelfrey, Perez, Maine/Niese and cast of many
or
Johan, Harden, Wolf, Pelfrey, Perez/Niese cast of many with Maine to the pen
308 comments
trs86
10/30/2009-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
I love Lackey but I will say I am enticed by the idea of not having to rely on Perez AND Maine. Honestly if they both stunk and we signed those 2 if they are healthy we could survive with Figgy for the #5.
However, with Lackey and Santana if Perez AND Maine stink?
TODAY I am leaning towards Harden and Wolf.
Yes Wanny I reserve my right to change my mind 106 more times.
trs86
10/30/2009-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
Hmmm, surprised to see get a hitter 1st be leading.
metsfan4decades
10/30/2009-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
Me too. Pitching, pitching, pitching….
trs86
10/30/2009-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
Hmmm, I am begining to think some are picking hitter just to tick me off. LOL. I guess their thinking, please comment to explain, is that you get Holliday and then one of those type pitchers will be left around?
metsfan4decades
10/30/2009-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
This is a tough choice. I really think we need a #2 type pitcher. Wish the FA pool wasn’t so slim in that area this year.
If you put a gun to my head to make a choice, I’d have to go with Lackey.
trs86
10/30/2009-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
Thing is IF healthy Harden is just as good or better than Lackey.
metsfan4decades
10/30/2009-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
Could be. His flashes of brilliance when pitching has been impressive. His history of injuries, not so much. So….if injured again, we’re then left with Johan and a bunch of #4/#5 type pitchers.
After last years injury bug, I’m just a little gun shy….
trs86
10/30/2009-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
Well with that scenerio we would have Wolf and a bunch of 4/5′s unless Wolf reverts back.
darknova306
10/30/2009-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
Typically, especially given the Mets’ history, I hate the thought of relying on guys with less than stellar health history. On the other hand, I hated the thought coming into this season of relying on Maine and Perez to both stay healthy(Maine) or productive (Perez).
Lackey would be great, but long term pitching contracts always scare me, though less so for a guy with Santana’s resume (which Lackey does not have). Santana, Lackey, Pelfrey, Perez, Maine/Niese/etc is a ‘could be great’ or ‘could be pretty lousy’ type of rotation, but because of injury possibilities, so could Santana, Harden, Wolf, Pelfrey, (one of many #5s).
Basically what I’m saying is I have no idea either. I’ll lean toward Harden/Wolf just because it give the rotation more flexibility and options. However it goes, pitching NEEDS to be our highest priority.
trs86
10/30/2009-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. I wonder if the best strategy would not be to lock up Harden or Wolf EARLY and see what that does to the Lackey market? I would assume we could not get both BUT…
trs86
10/30/2009-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
I know some have brought this up before but I will throw it back out there.
The last 2 years Wolf has pitched more innings than Lackey. Wolf is 33 and has pitched 5 years of 190 innings or more. Lackey is 31 and has pitched 5 years of 190 innings or more.
darknova306
10/30/2009-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
Good point. We can’t forget that Lackey’s had his own injury issues in recent years. Last two years Lackey made 24 and 27 starts, while Wolf made 33 and 34, respectively.
trs86
10/30/2009-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, and please don’t think I am comparing them ability wise. Just stating the fact that Lackey is not without injury concerns for a guy I am signing for 5 years. How devestating would it be to eventually lose him to injury.
darknova306
10/30/2009-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
Absolutely. Number of innings and injury issues isn’t a statement about ability one bit. It’s a question of, is the potential 5 year deal worth it given that he’s had some issues with health himself. That’s a tough call (I already hate long term pitching deals as it is, though that’s what the market calls for these days). Either of these options brings about plenty of risk/reward arguments.
metsfan4decades
10/30/2009-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
Point taken but……are we looking for an innings eater (i.e. Livan) or quality to go along with that durability?
And yeah, I want it all. I’m realistic enough to understand though they’re going to have to take some chances with acquisitions. Just put together the best possible team with the $$ they have to work with. 2006 was too long ago….
trs86
10/30/2009-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
In the not likely but purposed plan you would have Wolf as the innings eater and Harden as the potential ace.
trs86
10/30/2009-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
Note: This World Series has not been Easy
By Matthew Cerrone – Oct 30, 2009 8:48 am
The Phillies defeated the Yankees last night, tying the World Series at one game each.
LOL!
I will leave this one to you guys.
saltygary
10/30/2009-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
I just don’t understand why this guy can’t take one minute to proof read or run a simple spell check. There was something I read last week that had a bunch of spelling mistakes. I dont know why I still stop by there every couple week. There is absolutely nothing worth while.
darknova306
10/30/2009-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
Spelling mistakes don’t bother me nearly as much as factual errors. Gotta love those 7-man lineups they post. :p
trs86
10/30/2009-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
The guy seriously has the Phillies beating the Yankees though. How do you do that?
metsfan4decades
10/30/2009-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
Attention to detail obviously is not his forte.
trs86
10/30/2009-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
As Wanny has pointed out numerous times it is not mine either. To me this does not seem like detail however. This is pretty major.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
Meanwhile, for two straight days this Web site features articles with the word “compliment” mistakenly used instead of the more appropriate “complement.”
Unless they’re trying to say that certain players will speak highly of each other.
trs86
10/30/2009-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
Yup.
saltygary
10/30/2009-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
With all the injuries that have occurred this year, the last name that should ever be discussed is Rich Harden. That guy makes Mike Hampton look like Iron Man.
trs86
10/30/2009-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
Hmmm, not so sure. Seems like his injury history could be starting to be behind him. Cubs mostly protected him last year. He was healthy enough to make 30 starts. 2008 he only made 2 starts in April but finished with 25 starts.
So he has started 26 and 25 games the last 2 years. Lackey has started 24 and 27.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)
Tough call. At this point Harden seems to be the greatest injury risk of the three and he is the more likely of the Harden/Wolf combo to emerge as a true front of the rotation pitcher.
I fear that with the combo deal we will still have Johan and a bunch of fours if Harden can’t make it on to the field regularly.
At the same time, if they can both make 30 or more starts the Mets won’t have a weak link in the rotation (assuming Ollie will be replaced by Maine if he has a repeat performance).
trs86
10/30/2009-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I am still torn. But to me it’s like we assume that Lackey is durable and pay no attention to the fact that he missed quite a few starts the last 2 years as well. They both have made 51 starts the last 2 years.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
Lackey has missed the beginning of each season but then pitched all the way through to the end (and through the postseasons) for whatever that may be worth.
trs86
10/30/2009-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, but why is he missing the beginning of the season each year?
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
My boss stresses punctuality. He would not be happy with this!
trs86
10/30/2009-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
In a more serious note to answer the question both years it has been issues other than the elbow but there was great concern about the elbow. The first year it was a strained triceps muscle the next year forearm tightness.
metsfan4decades
10/30/2009-11:00am at 11:00 am (UTC -4)
Sounds like a guy who needs more time than ST allows to get his arm in shape….
trs86
10/30/2009-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
That would be fine if they were saying the control is not there or the velocity is not there.
But these are strains and tightness that should not be there to start a season. That being said they have not resulted in surgery and perhaps he can be like Johan and pitch through pains.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
And I think if you’re going to choose between injury prone pitchers, you choose the best pitcher of the two.
Also, Lackey’s IP/G has not decreased at all during his two injury seasons.
trs86
10/30/2009-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
True again, but we are also saying 1 year 9 million for one and 5 years 90 million for another in the proposed debate.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
I’m not concerned with the financial parameters because I have no idea if they are based in reality.
trs86
10/30/2009-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
OK. So do you also deny the logic that most likely Lackey will get 4-5 years and Harden 1-2? If so, yeah we can’t really debate this topic.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
I really haven’t the slightest idea what they will get. It would not surprise me to see Lackey get as few as 3 years or Harden get as many as 4-5.
No one could have predicted anything that occurred last season and I suspect this offseason will likely be the same.
Lackey might be reducing his field of suitors with the annual dollar figure he is seeking, much the same way K-Rod did last year. That could result in him having to accept a 3 year deal instead of a five year deal like K-Rod last year.
I know you’re hung up on him matching what Burnett got — but the Yankees may not be involved here.
I’m just saying it could happen.
trs86
10/30/2009-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
Of course it could. That’s not the point. It’s impossible to ever debate anything if you are always hung up on the unlikely. Should we debate next years offense on the understanding that Murphy and Wright could be worse instead of better?
Based on what we know, who will get more years? Based on what we know who will get more money per season and more money over the term of the contract?
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
My point is that I can’t evaluate the situation based on what you think they will get paid because I don’t necessarily agree with such speculation.
trs86
10/30/2009-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
Even voting so far. Interesting.
trs86
10/30/2009-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
30 votes in an hour. Not bad for an off-season Friday.
metsfan4decades
10/30/2009-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
The sting of what was our 2009 season is still fresh…..
trs86
10/30/2009-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
Sting? I have been numb for months. LOL.
metsfan4decades
10/30/2009-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, that too. I’m pretty much over it but I’ll certainly never forget it…..
jaded1983
10/30/2009-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
I voted get a hitter first with a long term plan in mind. The past three years have shown us that the Mets FO is not as good/aggressive at going out and spending money to fix our holes as the Yankees are.
That said, sign Holliday. He is the top aquisition to be made in THIS offseason. If we can get Lackey as well, excellent, if not the FA pitching class next year is MUCH more appealing! With Holliday and the addition of HArden/Wolf/Garland/Marquis we can certainly be in the running for the wild card in 2010.
Who knows who will be available for trade at the deadline as well. I think too many mets fans are limiting themselves to the few FA’s this year and arent seeing the bigger picture. The mets have too many holes and not enough money/talent to fix everything this offseason.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
Problem is cash. For what we know the Mets will not raise payroll and we can only hope they don’t lower it. So that means they have 28-32 million to spend. If Holliday gets 18, that will be tough to net the pitching we need.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
In other words, I don’t see any scenario the Mets get Lackey AND Holliday.
jaded1983
10/30/2009-11:11am at 11:11 am (UTC -4)
I agree, which is why i said “if we can get lackey” obviously a more realistic approach would be one of the other pitchers such as Harden/Wolf/Garland/Marquis.
LAckey is a great pitcher, but not without his own question marks. IMO for this year Id like to see the following (hopefully realistic) lineups and rotations
Reyes
Castillo
Beltran
Holliday
Wright
Frenchy
Murphy
Santos/FA catcher
Johan
Marquis/Garland/Wolf/Harden
Pelf
Perez
Niese/Nieve/Figgy, etc.
Move Maine to the set up role where he can throw gas, and potentially be a replacement to Frankie if he is successful.
jaded1983
10/30/2009-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
and then obviously throw $$/talent at pitching NEXT offseason. I think we will be much better off for the long haul that way.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
But we would not have money to throw at pitching unless you only signed Wolf or Harden for 1 year. But even then your rotation would not be much better.
jaded1983
10/30/2009-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
I dont know, at least the consistency of Wolf would be better than Livan/Perez, dont you think?
Even if we couldnt get pitching, we cant do everything this off season. Id rather spend the money we do have on a sorely needed middle of the order bat than “meh” pitching.
Spend next years money on that pitcher and dont “settle” for someone since they are the best on the market….
trs86
10/30/2009-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
That’s the point, you don’t have any next years money if you spend 18M on Holliday unless they raise payroll or do not sign a pitcher past 1 year this year and do not resign him next.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
So to me it’s either pitching you make a commitment to long-term or hitting. You can’t have both in the near future through FA.
dirtysanchez
10/30/2009-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
lol trust me, that has been the song and dance EVERY offseason…this isnt anything new going into this offseason. Lets just hope omar gets it right this time. I agree with your plan.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
You know, technically you could most likely get
Harden, Wolf, Mike Gonzalez/Brandon Lyon, Lopez, Nady, and Byrd for 32-35 million total.
dirtysanchez
10/30/2009-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
Lackey is one hell of a pitcher but i dont like that contract. We have two capable pitchers in the wings if harden/wolf go down in niese/nieve so i think we are ok with pitching depth. This is a tough call lol.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, I think this is why there are so many votes already. This one is just not that easy and all 3 could be winners or failures. Luck Omar.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
Nieve is not exactly the picture of health in his career either.
Anything you get from him is a bonus. I wouldn’t rely on him to even be the sixth or seventh guy.
That said, I think he’s got talent and could help the staff as a reliever or starter if he could ever make it through a season.
metsfan4decades
10/30/2009-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
You know….
http://www.pinstripealley.com/2009/10/30/1107392/come-together?login=1256906153
I wish I had any creativity. I’d give them something to vote on….
CaseStreet
10/30/2009-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
My .02. Lackey
Santana + Lackey + Maine, Pelf and Ollie is pretty good. You’re not counting on any of the 3 to be a #2, which we’ve done the past few years.
Harden and Wolf sounds good but there’s too much risk.
I’m not only thinking about the season, but more importantly about the playoffs. Especially if we’re not gonna get a big bat, we need a guy like Lackey to support Santana and hopefully Pelf can step it up this year while Maine and Ollie do their best to be better than a #5.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
Is there more risk signing those guys for 18 million total for 1 year or signing Lackey to 18 million for 5 years?
CaseStreet
10/30/2009-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
isn’t that shortsighted?
Lackey would be good for a few years at least. And we can say $18M but it could be $16M. Based on what Burnett got, I’d say closer to $16M.
When I say risk, I mean risk that it won’t do enough.
Harden has a good chance of getting injured and Wolf, though he had a good year, is just as good as Pelf, Ollie or Maine w/o health issues.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
And Harden when healthy is just as good as Lackey? How is it short-sighted to see that all 3 have some injury concerns and none of them are worth 4-5 years?
CaseStreet
10/30/2009-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
Lackey is much more likely to be healthy. Short-sighted cuz you want a one year band-aid. Top line pitchers get contracts that are more than 3 years.
Lackey is a #2 and is relatively young. Burnett started 21 games in 06 and 25 games in 07 and 34 in 08. Despite his injury risk, he still got 4 years cuz he was a top rotation pitcher.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
And was signed by the Yankees.
You are right I am thinking two bandaids might be better than a cast that I have to wear for 5 years.
dirtysanchez
10/30/2009-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
Thing is im TIRED of depending on pelfrey(ive never depended on ollie). I want more capable pitchers….
trs86
10/30/2009-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. The potential upside of Harden and the innings of Wolf are something that intrigues me. Especially if you factor in that it COULD lead to Pelfrey in a deal for AGonz?
CaseStreet
10/30/2009-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
Tired? Guy just had his sophmore slump in a crap of a season. In 08, Pelf was solid. Even if he’s not a #2, do you really think he’s not good for a 3-5 slot?
You want more capable pitchers but would rather go w/ a pitcher who is mediocre and another one who is always injured? After this year, you want more injuries?
I’d take either one as the 2nd pitcher.
CaseStreet
10/30/2009-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Personally, 5 years doesn’t scare me. Lackey has rarely been injured and just turned 31. Yes, in the 4th or 5th year, he might be on a decline, but there’s really no reason to believe he won’t be worth his first few years. Let’s not forget how everyone here wanted Lowe (for the right price) at 36. Lackey would be a FA when he turns 36. And having Santana and Lackey locked up long term plus hopefully being able to develop some good pitchers (Pelf, maybe Mejia or Holt) and we’ll have a rotation to rival the Braves and Phils.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
Rarely injured? You mean besides to start the last 2 years?
CaseStreet
10/30/2009-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
yup
trs86
10/30/2009-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
Thus he no longer is rarely injured.
fongy2
10/30/2009-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
I have to agree w/Case on this.
Forget Harden!,
Great stuff,always and I mean ALWAYS injured!
Wolf?
ehh,3/4
starter,maybe if he also stays healthy AFTER he gets paid.
Lackey,legit ace
who even
w/his 2 DL stints the last 2 yrs,nothing serious
or apparently long lasting.
Do all of you who’d prefer
Harden and Wolf want to live through
’09 again?
B/T/W,
In addition to Pelf,Maine&Ollie
filling
out the rotation,We have
Niese AND don’t
forget
Nieve.
CaseStreet
10/30/2009-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
Come on. Look at Lackey’s starts. He’s been a horse and hasn’t missed that much time when he has been injured.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lackejo01.shtml
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
As I said earlier, his IP/G has not changed and he has not missed starts once he started the season. He’s pitched all the way through the postseason (and effectively).
tricep injuries and forearm tightness can be indications of elbow problems, however.
But even so, we already know the other two guys have long histories of serious arm injuries.
CaseStreet
10/30/2009-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
if the elbow was a serious issue, Lackey wouldn’t get a LT deal fron anyone
stickguy
10/30/2009-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
Yes he would, if it passed the physical today.
Ever have a car that dropped a tranny or blew an engine? Sometimes you get a little warning, then boom, it goes.
same with a pitchers elbow.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
And if the elbow was a serious issue no one would trade 6 prospects for Putz and pay him 6 million.
stickguy
10/30/2009-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
I like the 2 guys on short deal idea better. Really risky putting 40mill locked into 2 SPs for the next 4 years (the length of Santanas contract)
also, as a tweak to the options, I could see maine in the rotation, with Ollie somehow being out of the picture.
fongy2
10/30/2009-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
And Rich Harden isn’t
a risk??
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
Harden hasn’t pitched more than 148 innings since 2004.
He’s pitched 140 innings or more twice since then; the last two seasons of 148 and 141, respectively.
There’s not much there to feel too confident about.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
He averages 107 IP per season for his career.
That’d be great if he was a relief pitcher in the early 80s.
stickguy
10/30/2009-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
5 years/90 million is a huge gamble. He goes down, you are screwed for years.
1/8-9 is a ST risk that doesn’t have implications beyond this year.
every pitcher is a risk to blow out an arm.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
TRS said Harden will sign for one year 1/8-9m. Did Harden say that?
Don’t you think other teams might be interested in his talent so that he eventually gets 2-3 year offers?
trs86
10/30/2009-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
TRS is basing it on multiple reports. IF the market changes it and he gets 3-4 years then I change my mind. Right now I have to assume that he will get 1-2 year deal because of the same thing all of you have said, he’s an injury risk.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
Who thought Lowe would get 4 years at his age?
Your last sentence by the way is silly. Every pitcher is a risk, yes. But Harden is not a relative statistic. He’s a fact.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
At this point is it also not a fact that Lackey is an injury concern for someone looking for 5 years? As much as Harden, Nope. More so than ugh Garland? Yes.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
Lackey missing a few starts at the beginning of the past two seasons but continuing to finish both seasons, including postseasons, with quality performance and no diminishment in his workload during his starts seems to make him an infinitely better risk than a guy who hasn’t thrown more than 148 innings in 5 years and has thrown under 50 innings in two of those seasons.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-2:47pm at 2:47 pm (UTC -4)
I have to say it is increasingly bizarre that you keep assuming Lackey is getting 5 years $90m because that’s what his agent or Tim Dierkes say he wants.
I bet Adam Dunn wanted a two year deal from Washington all along.
And I bet K-Rod didn’t really want the $75m over 5 years that Tim Dierkes said he wanted.
CaseStreet
10/30/2009-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
This must be a joke. Instead of going w/ the 90% sure thing in Lackey, we’d rather go w/ a guy who is more than a 50% shot of pitching only half the season and the other guy who is mediocre. And we want to spend $18M on those 2 guys. No thanks.
We already have guys who can perform mediocrely with more upside and they don’t cost as much (Pelf and Maine).
trs86
10/30/2009-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Well lets see 10% chance times 5 years is 50 % so …
CaseStreet
10/30/2009-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
lol, good thing u don’t teach math
fongy2
10/30/2009-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
You are right on there.
Jeez,guys,stop trying
to reinvent the wheel
by being”creative”
Alomst always,players
who are injured early and often in their careers will con’t to do /be so.
This was my argument all winter/spring against Ben Sheets,…
simply…always injured.
As far as it being a gamble,every contract is that But when you gamble (take it from one who knows) usually
better off going with the chalk instead of the longshot.
Whats there to think about here?
Omar’s first order of biz got to be Lackey!
trs86
10/30/2009-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
Again, I disagree. It is no certainty that a guy who has forarm and tricep issues to START the last two seasons will not be needing surgery very soon. Then what?
fongy2
10/30/2009-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
And it is no certainty that he does.
I’d be alot more concerned if his injury came mid or late season and didn’t come
back as opposed to
being early in the season and not only coming back strong but also pitching
well into October.
Theres nothing
to indicate he will soon need surgery except ofcourse
the fact that you keep
posting it.
Isn’t that what we’ve got a medical staff for?….
Oh,….
wait..
trs86
10/30/2009-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
Uh, so what if you go back and look at the published reports of the injuries both years where the Angels were scared to death that he may need surgery? Or how both injuries seem connected and can be a precurser for major elbow issues. I guess we should just pretend they don’t exist?
And to me the fact that they are occuring the last 2 years before the season ever starts is alarming as well.
stickguy
10/30/2009-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
also, have to say that after watching the highlights, NNYS is truly a joke.
that HR by Matsui? Off balance, flicking at a low ball with 1 hand, and it wne tout? Any normal park, even CBP, that is a FB to rf, and probably short of the track!
stickguy
10/30/2009-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
So if Harden ends up pitching 150 top quality innings for his 8/9 million, that is still a bargain. You have neise in the wings to pick up the 6 or so starts he misses.
That would be the same 6 starts that Lackey misses at the start of every year (unless the go with a 4 man rotation through mid-may).
Lackey is 31, and has missed significant time with forearm and triceps problems. ANyone remember Wagner? The age + arm issues are a major red flag.
Lackey is good, and on a 1 year deal? Sure, I like him. But if he is getting 2x the money annually, plus you need to go 4/5 years, tht is a risky, risky proposition.
Harden is only what, 27? And he has been basically healthy for the last 2 years (although babied). He is probably less of a risk on a 1 year deal than lackey is on a 5.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
I would easily go 3/45 on Lackey. However, if he gets what is speculated 5/90 then again I run for the hills.
stickguy
10/30/2009-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
I think too many people on here have a ST term focus (that is, what will you get next year). Obviously if you want a successful team in the playoffs in 2010, that is important.
but, you still can’t overlook the future, and comitting huge $$ for guys that might not be there is a risk.
5 years to a 31 YO pitcher is, in general, a really dumb idea. Unless you don’t care about payrolls and budgets of course!
trs86
10/30/2009-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
But as Wanny will tell you, just because he is a pitcher does not mean he is more likely to miss significant time. I am still not believing that one but maybe?
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-2:52pm at 2:52 pm (UTC -4)
The market for premier starting pitchers
has always resulted in contract terms of multiple years. If you want a top pitcher for 2-3 years you may have to pay for 4-5. Until the Mets can produce their own front line pitchers they will have to pay pitchers the going rate to do the job.
You think CC Sabathia and Johan Santana will give the Cy Young caliber performances they will be paid to give in their age 36 seasons? Absolutely not. But you don’t get them for their prime seasons if you are not willing to pay them in their age 36 seasons too.
stickguy
10/30/2009-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
for wanny and fongy (and others), of course TRS, me, or you don’t know what any of these guys actually want, or will get offered.
the whole point of hot stove stuff is to speculate, and talk about what ifs?
where the hell is the fun in that if you refuse to accept a premise and debate the merits?
Why bother to post if your entire arguement is usually “well, what if he won’t take X$ or Y years”? That is a different discussion!
fongy2
10/30/2009-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
I for one didnt post anything like that. I dont like to speculate on price/term of
contracts.My statement is simple…Omar’s first priority
has got to be seeing if Lackey
wants to be a Met and if so,what will it take.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
And then trying to put together a reasonable package for him of something like 3/45 with an option. As money increases for him years go down. If he wants 18M a year then he gets 2 years with an option.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed. If we don’t accept the norms of what they will get based on published reports we might as well just keep our mouths shut until it happens and then when we debate we can be called Monday morning quarterbacks.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-2:53pm at 2:53 pm (UTC -4)
Stick:
As I said above:
The market for premier starting pitchers
has always resulted in contract terms of multiple years. If you want a top pitcher for 2-3 years you may have to pay for 4-5. Until the Mets can produce their own front line pitchers they will have to pay pitchers the going rate to do the job.
You think CC Sabathia and Johan Santana will give the Cy Young caliber performances they will be paid to give in their age 36 seasons? Absolutely not. But you don’t get them for their prime seasons if you are not willing to pay them in their age 36 seasons too.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
And as for relying on “published reports” which mostly come from other people’s speculation, when Heyman, Rosenthal or Tim Dierkes are finally right about something I might start to listen.
Look at last offseason alone. Nothing happened according to what people thought might happen witht he exception of the enormous contracts the Yankees doled out while bidding against themselves.
This market will be even more dofficult to figure out because the Yankees will likely not make it a priority to sign the top pitcher. If Lackey does not have the Yankees or the Sox to boost his value, then what?
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
Silly to even consider Harden. We need healthy players.
He has started over 26 games once, in 2004, and he has never topped 190 IP (also closest in 2004, only time he topped 150 IP).
His Ks were good last year, but the rest of his #s were off, some way off.
If Harden comes in for a few mil and incentives, willing to kick around with the rest of the 3-5s, sure, but in any other context, no way.
We need health.
stickguy
10/30/2009-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
you need helath, then stick with Pelfrey. He is the healthiest of the entire bunch of pitchers being bandied about here.
or skip lackey and trade for Lowe. He is healthy too.
fongy2
10/30/2009-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
As always….the voice of reason:)
trs86
10/30/2009-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
As long as he agrees with you. LOL.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
Then we are better off staying away from all of the top choices then because none are them are certain for health. Granted Harden is the MOST risky but at this point I am not sure who is more certain to be healthy. Wolf or Lackey.
fongy2
10/30/2009-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
Boy TRS,you really sound as if your doing all you can to convince yourself
either we shouldnt sign Lackey or that we dont need him.
B/C that last post was a doozy!
trs86
10/30/2009-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
Why Fongy? We have to accept that Lackey, while the best pitcher out there, has failed to reach 200 innings or 30 starts the last 2 years and has the same amount of starts as the injury plagued Harden the last 2 years.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-3:00pm at 3:00 pm (UTC -4)
And in those same number of starts, Lackey pitched an additional 50 innings: which is about 7 or 8 more starts worth of innings.
Terrible way of showing Harden is as healthy or productive as Lackey.
trs86
10/30/2009-4:16pm at 4:16 pm (UTC -4)
True, never said he was as healthy. I said he was not as healthy. If he was as healthy as Lackey he would most likely get more money and years than Lackey.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-2:57pm at 2:57 pm (UTC -4)
Another way of looking at this mess is this: if you pay Lackey $18m per and he continues to miss 3-4 games early and then pitch at a near ace caliber level, you still get something close to $18m value.
If you pay Harden and Wolf $18m and Harden throws another 140 IP or less and Wolf pitches to his career norms of a 4th pitcher, then you’ve paid $18m for a fourth pitcher and a half a season of Fernando Nieve behind Johan.
trs86
10/30/2009-4:17pm at 4:17 pm (UTC -4)
Or Lackey’s issues could turn into full blown elbow problems…
CaseStreet
10/30/2009-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
Man, I think I’ve entered the twilight zone.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
Because people don’t agree? LOL. This is normal off-season debate.
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
Why, don’t like the idea of a guy who pitches maybe 15 games a year in the rotation for 10 million?
And the scariest part of the Twilight Zone Met episode is some of the actors playing Met fans are rooting for the YANKEES!!
trs86
10/30/2009-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
Or the guy who has averaged the same amount of starts the last 2 years as that guy who is an injury concern signed for 5 years at 18M instead of 1 at 9?
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
He threw 32+ starts every year from 2003–2007.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
OK, so that should make us forget the last 2 where he had injuries that show signs of elbow trouble?
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
No, not at all, but I think that Harden goes in the Mark Prior, Ben Sheets, and maybe Erik Bedard category of guys who just cannot stay healthy.
How can you compare Lackey and Harden’s histories?
trs86
10/30/2009-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
You can’t. Thus is why Harden is getting talks of 1-2 years instead of 5.
fongy2
10/30/2009-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
Dude!
“elbow trouble”?
trs86
10/30/2009-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
Come on Fongy. You have been around long enough to know that tricep and forearm issues are a sign of elbow trouble in MANY cases. Not saying it WILL be for Lackey but we can’t ignore it.
fongy2
10/30/2009-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
And he’s 30,
will Pitch the entire next season@
31.Hardly an old man.
Not to mention
that guys like Wolf and Harden are fairly small Pitchers,in th 6’190lb
range compared
to Lackey whos like6’6″
and 240.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
He’s 31 but yes he will be 31 all year. Hmm, so we should now do it based on Lackey’s size? I get the point but again Lackey is for 5 years and the other 2 are for 1. Their injury risk are minimized by a 1 year contract where Lackey’s is intensified by the 5 year contract.
fongy2
10/30/2009-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Are you okay today TRS?
OR did Lackey do something bad to you in the past?
We’re talking 2 diff level Pitchers here.
One a legit #1
or at absolute worst #2
And the other a back of the rotation guy
who if healthy,
would be solid
in the 4 spot on a good team when hes at his best which has
been, what? 10%
of the time in his career?
trs86
10/30/2009-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
Harden? Uh Harden when healthy is just as good as or better than Lackey.
Again, do you not read when I say that Lackey is the best pitcher available? However, to ME when you factor in years it makes my decision much more difficult.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
TRS: add their innings totals in those same number of starts in the last two years. Lackey has 50 more innings: 6 or 7 games worth.
No thanks on the 5 inning pitcher.
fongy2
10/30/2009-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
Now THAT was one of your best ever posts my friend!
That did make me laugh out loud.
As I was refreshing,
I was just thinking,
I can’t believe this
discussion!
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
LOL! Thanks!
trs86
10/30/2009-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Even more concerning is that people are choosing to root FOR either team.
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
I think most are rooting AGAINST one of the teams.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
Yup, I refuse to root FOR either.
metsfan4decades
10/30/2009-1:00pm at 1:00 pm (UTC -4)
Yup. Said it on a post last night. Watching these games are impossible. I want the Phils to lose. But I’m a life long Yankee hater as well.
So Jeter and ARod K and I’m immediately thinking ‘Good’.
Then I’m thinking, wait a minute, I want the Phils to lose – hit a HR.
Rooting for Pedro to do well AND the Yankees to get a hit – can you say bipolar Met fan????
Just impossible ’cause I find myself rooting for BOTH teams to lose – LOL.
trs86
10/30/2009-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, that is why I need to turn off sportscenter, and any local media and not read another story on who I should root FOR. I am trying to become as detached from this as possible and possibly just good baseball.
stickguy
10/30/2009-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
If people want only super healthy, no risk ptichers, I don’t think there is anyone available, except maybe Garland or marquis, who are still mediocre (if you want talent to go along with your reliabe innings, then I think you are screewed).
Once you are getting into aging guys (30+) or ones with a sketchy history, then keep the deals shorter to limit exposure.
So, if all the pitchers have issues, maybe it is better to lock up a stud hiter if you think one is available.
How about Holliday + Harden?
Is that better than Lackey + Byrd?
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
Not wanting the absolute joke of an idea of Harden when we seem to be choosing between him and Lackey is not necessarily only wanting super-healthy pitchers.
Harden has never thrown 200 IP, and is hurt–often fairly significantly–every year.
I know something has to be posted and commented on, but this is a silly idea, as was Gary Mathews. OK, not THAT bad, but bad.
Is Holliday + Harden on the DL for two months going to make us better than we were in 2009? Probably not too much better.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
Never said Holliday and Harden. The poll is Holliday or Harden AND Wolf.
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
“How about Holliday + Harden?”
Stick Guy posted it right above me….and in my opinion, it is recipe for disaster, and virtually guaranteed.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed.
trs86
10/30/2009-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
Guys all three of these choices have advantages and disadvantages. I am always amazed about how we just assume that our way is the only way. All of these could work or blow up and to me none of them are more certain than the other one. If it was, to me it would be an easy decision. Very rarely is a group of intelligent posters like us so split down the middle on vote. 52% Harden and Wolf, 48% Lackey or hitter.
metsfan4decades
10/30/2009-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll bet none of us have looked at injury prone players or potential injury prone players like we are this off season.
It’s like 2008 BP. No one ever wanted to live through that again. So Omar goes out and gets KRod and Putz. I’ll bet many Met fans were mostly satisfied with that and looked no further….
trs86
10/30/2009-1:05pm at 1:05 pm (UTC -4)
Good point.
fongy2
10/30/2009-1:39pm at 1:39 pm (UTC -4)
“I’ll bet none of us have looked at injury prone players like we
are this off season”
Except for me!
fongy2
10/30/2009-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
I’d like to know , at WHAT price would Lackey be acceptable for from TRS86?
trs86
10/30/2009-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
I for one didnt post anything like that. I dont like to speculate on price/term of
contracts.My statement is simple…Omar’s first priority
has got to be seeing if Lackey
wants to be a Met and if so,what will it take.
Reply
trs86 says:
Friday, October 30 2009 at 12:18 pm (Edit)
And then trying to put together a reasonable package for him of something like 3/45 with an option. As money increases for him years go down. If he wants 18M a year then he gets 2 years with an option.
fongy2
10/30/2009-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
Didn’t need th rehash.
Just missed that earlier post.
So, at 4yrs/60-64mil
Lackeys too rich for your blood?
Where exactly is the comp for his services coming from?
The yanks&Sox aren’t
likely to spend big time on another Ace.
The Cub situation
makes them unlikely.
The Dodgers owner’s divorce and their young ,cheap SPa also
make them unlikely.
So,whos gonna pay up?
If he doesnt stay w/the Angels,where does he go?
trs86
10/30/2009-2:30pm at 2:30 pm (UTC -4)
If you don’t need the rehash then why are you asking me the same question? LOL. We all need to relax on this one.
If there is no market then why should we have to go 4/60?
But as I said, 3/45 with an option making it 4/60 it can even be an option with a 3M buyout. If he wants more than that, if I were doing it then I would start to decrease years or option money. Example if he wants 3/48 then he gets a plain team option for the last year no buyout. If he wants 18 M a year then he gets 2 years with a team option…
fongy2
10/30/2009-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
What I meant was you could just have directed me to your earlier post w/o having to re-type much of it.
trs86
10/30/2009-2:42pm at 2:42 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, I didn’t bud. I just copied and pasted it. But I think I said it about 2-3 times. It’s OK and I did not mean to come across as snarky. I was just making the point that it was not like I did not want Lackey. Just not at the years and money I THINK it will take.
It’s been fun and definantely generated some interest and discussion. Thus, a very successful thread.
Later.
fongy2
10/30/2009-2:22pm at 2:22 pm (UTC -4)
Heres hoping Melvin comes w/Hale for
’10′s Coaching staff! The thought of Razor as Bench Coach really is an ugly one.
trs86
10/30/2009-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
AGREED! Finally, right?
I am hoping that Melvin comes in with coaching staff in place for Manuel’s all but certain mid-season dismissal.
fongy2
10/30/2009-2:41pm at 2:41 pm (UTC -4)
Only the Wilpons/Omar
move a guy b/c he did a piss-poor job as a base-coach and PROMOTE
him to Right-Hand-Man
to the Mgr..
trs86
10/30/2009-2:43pm at 2:43 pm (UTC -4)
Lets give them credit for not doing it YET. Or maybe not credit but at least time to see what happens. I agree if that is what they do then they might as well fire Jerry now because that situation is doomed.
trs86
10/30/2009-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
Hmm, so before I close up shop for a while, vote analysis.
Looks like it is almost an even split between A) Two pitchers including Harden (28 votes) or B) Sign one of the two big name players Lackey (20 votes) or Holliday (8 votes).
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-4:21pm at 4:21 pm (UTC -4)
From ESPN.com:
Braves oust top scout
1:08
PM ETAtlanta Braves Top Email The Atlanta Braves have fired Tom Battista amidst a number of changes to the club’s scouting department, ESPN Insider’s Keith Law has learned. Battista served as the club’s regional crosschecker and is responsible for the scouting and signing of right-hander Tommy Hanson. Earlier this month, GM Frank Wren replaced departed scouting director Roy Clark with special assignment scout and former Baltimore Orioles scouting director Tony DeMacio, who turned around and fired one of the most respected an successful scouts in the organization in Battista.
Battista has been instrumental in the Braves’ farm system remaining strong, and also signed right-hander Kris Medlen and first base prospect Freddie Freeman as well as Hanson, who could be named the National League Rookie of the Year next month.
DeMacio’s drafts in Baltimore were hit-and-mostly-miss, boasting Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis and Erik Bedard, but also including Chris Britton, Jim Johnson and Brandon Fahey twice.
Law has more on both Battista and DeMacio.
Keith Law
Battista a gem in his own right
“I can’t imagine Battista will be out of work for long. He’s a well-respected and well-liked scout whose track record of finding value in later rounds is extremely valuable in an era when teams are focusing more resources on the Rule 4 draft. I don’t understand why DeMacio would choose to start his second stint as a scouting director — he was Baltimore’s scouting director from 1999 to 2004, and produced just one average big leaguer (Nick Markakis) with 10 first-round picks) — by terminating a scout who has demonstrated his value so clearly.”
trs86
10/30/2009-4:23pm at 4:23 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting.
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-4:52pm at 4:52 pm (UTC -4)
Omar’s number one target should be absolutely anyone having anything to do with scouting for the Marlins.
trs86
10/30/2009-4:22pm at 4:22 pm (UTC -4)
Wanny you may never see this but my final question is:
What is the point of debating any of us then? If we can’t debate based on what reports say the price will be then what is the point of the debate? To debate if Lackey is more healthy than Harden? Duh. Well that was fun. To debate that Lackey is a good pitcher: Yup. Well that was fun. Money and years aside would I rather have Lackey? Yup. Well that was fun. Point is based on what I said as the debate topic of 1-2 years for Harden at 18 total or 5 at 18M per with Lackey which one would you choose and why? If you don’t want to debate that topic based on those premises it’s pretty easy not to right? If you have a better idea of what they will get based on research then throw it in here and we can debate that too?
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-4:33pm at 4:33 pm (UTC -4)
You can debate whatever you want.
And even though I think it is silly to assume these “reports” are true, I and others have pretty clearly stated that even at $18m per year, Lackey would represent a better value than Harden and Wolf. I’ve said it about 10 different times in this topic.
Like I said earlier, the only way the Mets can get frontline pitchers is to pay them, or over pay them as the case may be. Well, at least until they get a Tom Battista type to find Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen for them.
When the Mets bought Pedro Martinez they knew they were not getting 4 HOF years from him. They know Santana will not be a CY caliber pitcher at age 36 and the Yankees know the same thing about Sabathia. Yet, they’ll be paying these guys as if they are.
That’s the way it is. You want an ace pitcher for 2-3 years, you’ll have to pay him for 4-5. Has been that way since the beginning of free agency. (See Hunter, Catfish.)
I see no point in trying to sign inferior pitchers for shorter terms if they are not going to help you win either. At least Lackey gives you a chance to win during the term of his contract.
trs86
10/30/2009-4:38pm at 4:38 pm (UTC -4)
So now Harden is an inferior pitcher because of talent or injury? Is that injury risk the same signing him for 1 year as it is for signing Lackey for 5?
Anyway, I can’t say that signing Lackey for 5/90 (again you can change the price and we can debate that) is going to help the Mets any more than signing Harden and Wolf. Perhaps you can, I can’t nor can at THIS point half the people who voted. Looks pretty even to me. A)Lackey or Holliday B) Harden AND Wolf.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-4:43pm at 4:43 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, 107 IP of Harden (his career average) or 147 IP (his career high in the last 5 years) makes him inferior to Lackey who averages 200 or even the 170 or so he’s pitched the last two years. So too do his Ollie like 5 IP/G.
If you don’t grasp the facts that demonstrate Harden’s increased injury risk over Lackey’s then I can’t help you. But I would start with the fact that even the “injured” version of Lackey threw more innings than Harden has thrown since 2004.
And last, as I’ve said now 3 or 4 times, I don’t view the chances of Lackey getting hurt at some point in the purported 5 year term of his contract as an impediment. If you get three years of near ace quality from him, you’ve probably come out ahead. You don’t sign ace pitchers for one year. It doesn’t work that way.
trs86
10/30/2009-4:47pm at 4:47 pm (UTC -4)
So are you saying that Harden could not be an ace in 2010? Again your point is only based on injury and not on talent. To ME that injury risk is lessened by the 1 year contract. Just like you assume that Lackey will get injured during his contract or that it won’t be an issue, I assume that if Harden at 10M gets injured we lost 10M.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-4:50pm at 4:50 pm (UTC -4)
Forget it.
You’re changing the argument every time you hit the keyboard.
Harden has all the talent in the world. Unfortunately no one ever gets to see it.
Meanwhile, Lackey, when injured as you speculate he is, gives you much more than Harden has at his best.
And if Lackey gets hurt this year or in year 4 or 5, how does that mean you’ve lost $90M? He can’t come back?
trs86
10/30/2009-5:12pm at 5:12 pm (UTC -4)
If Lackey gets injured in year one how does he help us more than one year of Harden?
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-4:51pm at 4:51 pm (UTC -4)
Are you opposed to bringing in Matt Holliday for 5 years and big money? If he gets hurt the Mets can lose a lot more than if they just gave LF to Angel Pagan for the league minimum.
stickguy
10/30/2009-4:59pm at 4:59 pm (UTC -4)
that’s true. There is no difference at all between a 31 YO SP that has had arm issues the last 2 years, and a 30 YO OF that has never been hurt.
I forgot that. Thanks for reminding me.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:02pm at 5:02 pm (UTC -4)
Why did Matt Holliday only play 139 games in 2008?
Why did he suck so bad for a half a season this year?
5 years is a long time.
“Arm issues” is a bit of a stretch for a guy who had some tightness in his forearm (Johan Santana said he has this every season) and a triceps injury and who has not missed a start once he began the season and consistently pitched 6+ innings of strong baseball.
stickguy
10/30/2009-5:08pm at 5:08 pm (UTC -4)
the 6 weeks he missed at the beginning of the season dont count? Maybe the mets could not sount september and go to the playoffs every year.
And Johan had some stiffness in ST , and didnt have to miss time with it.
If you honestly think Lackey is as good a bet to stay healthy and productive for 5 years as Holliday is, then more power to you.
5 years IMO is too long a deal for anyone, unless it is an outlier like A Rod at age 26/27.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:11pm at 5:11 pm (UTC -4)
Well, TRS says Tim Dierkes says Holliday will want at least 5 years so I guess we’ll just have to sign second rate players in fear of injuries that may or may not come.
It’s a good thing our farm system produces so many top level players.
trs86
10/30/2009-5:15pm at 5:15 pm (UTC -4)
Why do you have to sound like an asshole when you debate?
Is there any need in continuing to point out that you don’t like my predictions because you think for some reason the only thing I read is MLBTR without ever clicking on a link there or anywhere else?
Could you not have said, based on MLBTR reports Holliday is seeking 5 years? I guess that would not have given you a chance to get a cheap shot in.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:21pm at 5:21 pm (UTC -4)
When you stop changing the point of every discussion and using rank speculation to effectuate the change, I’ll stop calling you out.
Until then, you should have thicker skin as an author of the content on this page and as someone who likes to lead the direction of the discussions.
trs86
10/30/2009-5:38pm at 5:38 pm (UTC -4)
When you stop changing the point of every discussion and using rank speculation to effectuate the change, I’ll stop calling you out.
Can you explain how I am “using rank speculation to effectuate the change”?
Or can you tell me where I have changed the point of every discussion? Seems like we have stayed on topic very well.
Should the Mets sign Lackey for 5 years 18M or Harden Wolf for 1 year 18M.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:46pm at 5:46 pm (UTC -4)
In the last hour alone, you declared that Harden has been “babied” a bit to explain away his low innings output, seemingly to support the undeniable fact that he’s got arm troubles.
Moments before that you attempted to change the point of the discussion of Harden’s lack of durability with the following question: “So are you saying that Harden could not be an ace in 2010?”
We weren’t discussing his talent, we were dicussing his propensity for injury.
His talent is a red herring issue.
Or perhaps you were speculating that he would be healthy in 2010? Well, given his track record that would be nothing more than rank speculation.
Now that you’ve asked, I’ll point it out everytime you do it from now on. You can call me an asshole; but you asked for it.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:59pm at 5:59 pm (UTC -4)
Do they teach analogies in your school? They are not the same as red herrings.
trs86
10/30/2009-6:04pm at 6:04 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, they do. In fact I was using something similar in the simile I used to describe what you sounded like when you debate.
trs86
10/30/2009-5:13pm at 5:13 pm (UTC -4)
Yes I am opposed to bringing in Holliday for 5 years and big money when we have so many holes.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-4:39pm at 4:39 pm (UTC -4)
And these points you’ve labled as not worth discussing, i.e. who is better or who is healthier, are critical points to the analysis. If the only consideration is whether you’d rather spend $90m or $9m, I think any sane person will choose to spend less. But the more critical point is what you are getting for the money.
trs86
10/30/2009-4:43pm at 4:43 pm (UTC -4)
They are not relevant unless you can also put a price on them. It takes both. If Lackey cost uh, 30M and Harden 3M would it not make a difference? I never said they were not worth discussing but they don’t provide much of a debate by themselves just as you are saying the money it self does not either.
I still think you get more for your total money with Harden and Wolf over just Lackey IF they all appear to be healthy and pass their physicals. Of course I would not sign any of them if they failed, LOL.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-4:47pm at 4:47 pm (UTC -4)
Here’s where we differ. I don’t see any benefit to bringing in Harden for 140 or less innings next year (this is unfortunately the cold hard truth of his track record). do we need to pay him so that Jon Niese can pitch 100 IP in his place?
You’re afraid that at some point Lackey will get hurt during his contract. Well, you gotta be in it to win it. You don’t get that type quality pitcher on a one year deal.
Lackey is demonstrably more durable than Harden. Even at his “worst” he was pitching in dominating fashion in the postseason.
trs86
10/30/2009-5:11pm at 5:11 pm (UTC -4)
How is it for sure that he will only give 140 innings when the last 2 years that has not been the case. You can’t say that he will ONLY pitch 140 innings as some kind of fact anymore than I can say that Lackey WILL get injured to start the season as some kind of fact.
You are afraid that Harden will get injured during his one year contract. Well you gotta be in it to win it. You don’t get that type of pitcher for that price without injury concerns.
Harden and Lackey are very comparable ability wise, they are not durability wise. Thus the price and years again become relevant.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:13pm at 5:13 pm (UTC -4)
Let’s see since 2004 he’s best IP totals are 141 and 148 IP. Mixed in there are two seasons of under 50 IP.
Last season he averaged about 5 IP/G, certainly indicating that he was not feeling all that great, or was not physically capable of pitching a full load.
When someone has never done something it’s awfully hard to bet they will suddenly do it.
That’s how.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:14pm at 5:14 pm (UTC -4)
He pitched 148 IP and 141 IP the last two seasons.
That sounds a lot like 140 IP.
trs86
10/30/2009-5:19pm at 5:19 pm (UTC -4)
He has been babied a little for sure. But we have no idea if he would not be able to pitch more next year and he is for SURE an injury concern.
You are also ignoring the fact that in 2008 in those 140 innings he had an ERA of 2.07 and a SO/9 of 11.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:23pm at 5:23 pm (UTC -4)
More speculation. Great.
So he was really capable of pitching more but the Cubs had a better chance of winning with their middle relievers.
And if he was merely being “babied” I would suspect there’s a good reason for that.
Lastly, he also has high pitch counts because he walks a a guy almost every two innings.
No thanks.
trs86
10/30/2009-5:30pm at 5:30 pm (UTC -4)
Not a lot of difference in their WHIP this season, of course Harden’s was much better last year than it was this year.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:31pm at 5:31 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, great. Not remotely the point.
trs86
10/30/2009-5:36pm at 5:36 pm (UTC -4)
It matters because they are putting about the same amount of runners on base each inning. One walks more and one is more hittable.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:39pm at 5:39 pm (UTC -4)
Actually the point was that Lackey pitches more innings than Harden.
Walks, hits, whatever. Harden pitches 5 IP/G and no more than 148 IP/season in the last 5 years.
trs86
10/30/2009-5:45pm at 5:45 pm (UTC -4)
5.667 for the last 2 years there buddy.. LOL.
stickguy
10/30/2009-4:48pm at 4:48 pm (UTC -4)
over their careers, harden has proven to be “better” and lackey has proven to be “healthier”
Harden though is 3-4 years younger, and over the last 2 season, has actually been healthier too!
and with any long term deal, it has to be what you are getting for all the money in the deal, not just the first 1-2 years.
Unless, of course, you have an unlimited budget to just eat all your mistakes.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-4:52pm at 4:52 pm (UTC -4)
Exactly how has Harden been healthier the last two years?
He has thrown 50 fewer innings the last two seasons and has averaged about 5 IP/start.
And how has he been better? Or more to the point of this discussion, how has he been more valuable? Harden might be dominant when he’s on the mound. But he’s never there. Isn’t there value to a guy who can give you more solid innings?
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-4:58pm at 4:58 pm (UTC -4)
Harden’s overall numbers were mostly down this year, even with his amazingly healthy 141 innings pitched.
How can people debate bringing him in after last year’s injuries?
stickguy
10/30/2009-5:01pm at 5:01 pm (UTC -4)
well, Harden is a 27 YO that has been considered ace-like in the past if he could stay on the mound. The others are proven junk at least the ones that are actual former ML plyers!)
And bad nes, I think Bobby Bo is already on the payroll in 2010 (eating up 2mill of the budget!)
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:05pm at 5:05 pm (UTC -4)
Rich Harden has never pitched enough innings to be considered an ace.
And the fact that he’s so injured as a young player hardly bodes well for him as he gets older.
I think his injury history overrides any perceived benefits from his age.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:06pm at 5:06 pm (UTC -4)
Mark Prior is only 29. Sign him too.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:05pm at 5:05 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting point, Kingman. His healthiest recent season is also his worst.
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-5:08pm at 5:08 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I mean the guy could have been great, but even when he pitched a lot last year, and Kd a lot of guys, he was hit a lot harder than in the past, especially HR-wise.
trs86
10/30/2009-5:27pm at 5:27 pm (UTC -4)
His recent season saw his WHIP skyrocket in the first half for sure as did his HR/9 those are valid points. But he did finish strong for the 2nd half compared to the first half. Going from a BA of .271 to an amazing .189 and half as many HR.
stickguy
10/30/2009-4:40pm at 4:40 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting piece on Toby’s Mets minors blog about where the Mets stand in regards to getting value out of the draft, and FA signings. Lets just say, not a pretty report.
TRS, I think you should eliminate all posts that are any kind of “what should the Mets do in the off season” question. It is apparantly a pointless exerciese, other than to drive up your hits.
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-4:44pm at 4:44 pm (UTC -4)
Well, debating the future is one thing, suggesting we bring in Gary Matthews, maybe the very worst and overpaid everyday player in the game, is quite another.
trs86
10/30/2009-4:44pm at 4:44 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman, reread the post. Never said we should do it.
trs86
10/30/2009-4:44pm at 4:44 pm (UTC -4)
Hey it works for Cerrone.
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-4:50pm at 4:50 pm (UTC -4)
Sure does, when you are after quantity and not even remotely concerned with quality….
trs86
10/30/2009-5:08pm at 5:08 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure if that’s a shot at us or not?
stickguy
10/30/2009-4:50pm at 4:50 pm (UTC -4)
pandering to the masses has long been a successful business model.
gipperpdx
10/30/2009-4:49pm at 4:49 pm (UTC -4)
Hmm…tough one. I’d take Harden and Wolf if for no other reason than it slides Pelf and Ollie further down in the rotation.
Kingman 26
10/30/2009-4:51pm at 4:51 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, until Harden is on the 60 day DL by mid-May, then we are right back where we were this year. Santana and a bunch of injured, unproven, unreliable guys.
stickguy
10/30/2009-5:13pm at 5:13 pm (UTC -4)
then sign them both. Lackey doesn’t even start his season until mid-may anyway.
trs86
10/30/2009-5:31pm at 5:31 pm (UTC -4)
LOL.
stickguy
10/30/2009-4:54pm at 4:54 pm (UTC -4)
One thing to keep in mind with the Mets and FAs this off season. If they go in big on a couple of expensive guys (even one 18ish guy), then don’t expect anything interesting next off season. The team will pretty much be locked in.
Because, after 2010, they don’t have any big $ contracts coming off the books (unless in the unlikely scenerio that they decline Reyes option, and that ain’t happening).
So unless they decide to blow up the core and trade the big guns, payroll will be pretty much already locked up.
At least if they sign/trade for some 1 year contracts, they will have some flexibility next year (unless, of course, they decide to pump an extra 20mill into the budget!)
I know it makes me a heretic to some posters, but while I don’t want them to punt 2010, I am also more interested in building a sustained winning team.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-4:55pm at 4:55 pm (UTC -4)
Are the Mets better in 2011 without Lackey?
stickguy
10/30/2009-5:03pm at 5:03 pm (UTC -4)
yes. Of course they are.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:07pm at 5:07 pm (UTC -4)
they are?
stickguy
10/30/2009-5:05pm at 5:05 pm (UTC -4)
and if you bothered to read the post, I said you better be sure you lkie the team, because they arent likely to be in on any name FAs after 2010. So no Halladay, no Lee, or whoever else hits the market.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:08pm at 5:08 pm (UTC -4)
If you solve the problem now, why will you need to get those guys?
Besides won’t Halladay be older and more expensive?
trs86
10/30/2009-5:32pm at 5:32 pm (UTC -4)
Older, yeah obviously. More expensive? Who knows? I have heard no reports from ANYONE yet.
wannybackstra
10/30/2009-5:33pm at 5:33 pm (UTC -4)
lol. I’ll give you credit for that one.
whataputz
10/30/2009-6:00pm at 6:00 pm (UTC -4)
The more I see all these debates, look at the stats, and evaluate this offseason, 1 thing becomes clear. I don’t think I want any of these guys! Lackey is good, but is he worth giving up an arm and a leg? He’s not an ace! Harden is not what this team needs unless he wants a 1 year deal, which won’t happen. Holliday is a good player, but I’m not huge on him, especially committing all that money. I just don’t think he’s worth superstar money, but others might disagree. This FA class is terrible, and it couldn’t come at a worse time. I think our answer should come from the trade market. Very broad statement, but I don’t see any worthy deals coming out of this FA class. I am intrigued by Ben Sheets however, I feel like if we can get him to a cheap 1 year deal with a second year option based on playing time, then why the heck not try to steal him for the 2010 season.
trs86
10/30/2009-6:02pm at 6:02 pm (UTC -4)
I honestly think Harden will end up with a 1 year with an option but yeah if he gets more than that it would be too risky. As I have mentioned before I would rather steal Halladay but who knows if that is even possible.
stickguy
10/30/2009-11:35pm at 11:35 pm (UTC -4)
cutting through the earlier flack, the real question with harden is what contract he get.
a smoltz like deal (1 year guarantee, say 3-4 mill base and up to 5 in incentives for IP or GS), makes him a real intriquing gamble.
1 year at the speculated 9m base? harder to justify, unless they really have excess budget to burn and fall in love.
2 or more years guaranteed? Don’t want to go there.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:38pm at 11:38 pm (UTC -4)
I think it will be 1 year at least and 8-10M. He has been healthy enough the last 2 years for someone to take that type of low risk deal.
stickguy
10/30/2009-11:57pm at 11:57 pm (UTC -4)
like I say, what the hell, it’s only money. And it isn’t my money!
better off if the Mets fill all their other holes, then if he is still there, try to snag him as the cherry on top. But not as the first and big move.
trs86
10/30/2009-7:13pm at 7:13 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, many post have been MCed. I tried to do everyone justice in the deletion as many of us, including myself, were acting like Yankee and Phillies fans. BOOOO!
GravediggerHebner
10/30/2009-11:48pm at 11:48 pm (UTC -4)
Wow, what I must’ve missed.
It’s a relief to know that the comment thread can be all belligerent and thumb sucking whether I’m here or not.
stickguy
10/30/2009-11:55pm at 11:55 pm (UTC -4)
I was here most of the day (what happens when you start debating wanny) and Im not even sure what was deleted, or if I was in it!
GravediggerHebner
10/30/2009-11:59pm at 11:59 pm (UTC -4)
Only the Shadow (TRS) knows!
trs86
10/31/2009-12:01am at 12:01 am (UTC -4)
LOL. I was trained by the best of MCers.
trs86
10/31/2009-12:02am at 12:02 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, Wanny and I are WAY too much alike.
jaydh
10/30/2009-10:54pm at 10:54 pm (UTC -4)
Screw the offense unless there is a serious bargain. Give me Harden and Lackey. Santana/Lackey/Harden/Pelfrey/Maine Keep Ollie in AAA until someone gets hurt or put Maine in the pen.
metsfan4decades
10/30/2009-11:24pm at 11:24 pm (UTC -4)
LOL – nice thought but they can’t keep Ollie in AAA. He’s tenured.
Right now, unless we get some GM dumb enough to pick up Ollie’s contract or he’s injured, we’re stuck with him in the rotation.
The way I see it, the only two we’re sure of right now is Johan and Ollie.
All the rest could and may be used in a trade if the price is right and it’s worth it. Truthfully, I don’t see Pelfry or Maine going anywhere during the off season, but you really never know.
And wow – Johan and Ollie….talk about opposite ends of the spectrum….
jaydh
10/30/2009-11:35pm at 11:35 pm (UTC -4)
thats fine. let ollie be the #5 in this situation. I think maine would be very good in the pen. Adding Lackey and Harden would not only fix our rotation, but it would strengthen our pen as well.
Roto-Santana/Lackey/Harden/Pelfrey/Perez
Pen-Feliciano, Stokes, Parnell, Green, Maine, Putz, Frankie
The rest of the money can then be focused on positional players.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:39pm at 11:39 pm (UTC -4)
I wish they would, but if we get Lackey that is the only SP we will get and most likely the only one we could afford.
jaydh
10/30/2009-11:42pm at 11:42 pm (UTC -4)
I agree its not the route we will go, but i wish it was. My feeling is Omar will sign a LFer and catcher and be done. I believe he thinks santana, maine, pelf,perez, niese, nieve, misch, parnell, figgy is enough to create a rotation. I hope i am wrong, but i dont have much faith in omar.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:44pm at 11:44 pm (UTC -4)
Nah, we will get a rotation guy. Right now I am seeing it being Marquis and a big name LF.
jaydh
10/30/2009-11:46pm at 11:46 pm (UTC -4)
I will be very disappointed with that. I would rather have great pitching first and try to make a trade for offense with the excess.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:46pm at 11:46 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, me too but…
stickguy
10/30/2009-11:50pm at 11:50 pm (UTC -4)
I would rather just skip marquis and put the money elsewhere if possible.
But, the issue with jay’s rotation is too much uncertainty. If they get what you can project reasonably, assuming no big injuries, yeah they can get a servicable rotation out of that. Taking a gamble though, but it’s omar’s job.
so if they get a top line pitcher? great. If not, then might as well run with what you got instead of spending 10mill or so on a mediocre stiff like Marquis.
jaydh
10/30/2009-11:52pm at 11:52 pm (UTC -4)
If you get an injury to the rotation you still have Maine and Niese who can start, or Nieve or Misch if they are still around.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:53pm at 11:53 pm (UTC -4)
While I agree, I am just assuming based on the report of the day and who knows if that is a ploy because they want Lackey or if it’s just plain bad reporting or finally if it’s actually true.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:54pm at 11:54 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, Jay I think he was referring to the worst nightmare rotation of keeping what we have.
stickguy
10/31/2009-12:04am at 12:04 am (UTC -4)
TRS knows me too well at this point! Yes, I was commenting on the idea that Omar thinks they have enough to make a solid rotation out of.
Theoretically they do, with the big ifs of pelf rebounding to 2008+, maine back to his early 2007 form, and Perez not being completely hopeless.
Like I said, a stretch (leap of faith?) that would look way better with another solid, upper rotation guy on board!
but if not, you will probably have holliday and Benjie to watch!
stickguy
10/30/2009-11:45pm at 11:45 pm (UTC -4)
depending on what you end up paying the pitchers, and what the “real” budget is, might not be enough left for more than a catcher .
Now, if you get lackey for 3/45, and harden for 1/6 + incentives (so say budget 9), that’s 24 and you have 4-8 left (from the speculated 28-32 available). toss say 2 mill at barajas, and you have 2-6, so pretty much tapped out.
jaydh
10/30/2009-11:47pm at 11:47 pm (UTC -4)
And that would be fine with me. Then you would have prospects to deal for an upgrade to the offense if needed later on. Much easier to get a bat than great pitching.
GravediggerHebner
10/30/2009-11:50pm at 11:50 pm (UTC -4)
Well, from what I could gather before I had to run off the other day, we don’t need a catcher and I apparently wasted a lot of time and energy suggesting that we might.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:51pm at 11:51 pm (UTC -4)
Uh, we NEED a catcher. LOL. It just does not have to be a good one. LOL.
I think there will be a good compliment guy off the scraps.
GravediggerHebner
10/30/2009-11:56pm at 11:56 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with your whole comment.
I never suggested it had to be Johnny Bench. I sure thought that was heavily implied by my including a link to a list of AAA catchers.
I may not be happy in Sept 2010, but I will be plenty satisfied in March 2010 if the Mets bring in what you describe.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:58pm at 11:58 pm (UTC -4)
I am beginning to lean towards Barajas right now.
stickguy
10/31/2009-12:06am at 12:06 am (UTC -4)
he is my flavor of the day too, if he can really be had for around 2mill
trs86
10/31/2009-12:08am at 12:08 am (UTC -4)
If not then he is REALLY not worth it.
jaydh
10/30/2009-11:53pm at 11:53 pm (UTC -4)
We definately need a catcher, it would be best for Thole to get AAA time so when we do call him up he is ready to go rather than learning on the fly.
GravediggerHebner
10/31/2009-12:02am at 12:02 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. I’d rather Thole prove to be so good in AAA that he forces the Mets to release/trade a catcher this summer than be so bad they’re forced to go out and get one.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:50pm at 11:50 pm (UTC -4)
Not much of a chance IN MY OPINION (in case Wanny is still around) of us getting either of those pitchers for that price. I don’t see Lackey being cheaper total or per year than Lowe. I don’t see Harden being cheaper than Garland was.
Our biggest hope in the Lackey deal is something like 4/64 but only 10 M for the first year and 18 for the others.
jaydh
10/30/2009-11:55pm at 11:55 pm (UTC -4)
18mil per for Lackey, 8-10mil per for Harden plus incentives. 2-3mil on a catcher and call it a day.
trs86
10/30/2009-11:57pm at 11:57 pm (UTC -4)
Gotta have a bench and a setup guy.
But as I said you know if they get Lackey there is no way we are getting anyone else.
jaydh
10/30/2009-11:58pm at 11:58 pm (UTC -4)
Maine or Putz for setup?
trs86
10/30/2009-11:59pm at 11:59 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t have Putz.
Maine, maybe.
Still have no bench or LF.
jaydh
10/31/2009-12:02am at 12:02 am (UTC -4)
In my scenario I would be fine with Pagan in LF, or using prospects to trade for one rather than spending 15+mil on bay or holliday. I imagine the bench would be made up of Santos, Cora, Reed, maybe Evans and Ahern.
trs86
10/31/2009-12:04am at 12:04 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, not sure I am ready for a full-time Pagan and we would not have the money to trade for anyone but a prospect. But who the hell knows.
Regardless, I stand behind my thought that if we get Lackey we won’t be getting another pitcher. Just like if we get Holliday we won’t be getting another hitter.
jaydh
10/31/2009-12:08am at 12:08 am (UTC -4)
I would let Pagan start in LF and Murphy at 1B…then if needed, use Niese plus other prospects to land a young player with up to 3 yrs on service time who will still be making minimal salary.
trs86
10/31/2009-12:11am at 12:11 am (UTC -4)
Don’t guess you want to name drop who that guy might be? LOL.
But seeing what I saw out of Pagan, I am not sure he can start on any team that hopes to win much of anything. Unless you think the mental mistakes will just fade away.
jaydh
10/31/2009-12:16am at 12:16 am (UTC -4)
Obviously I believe with playing time Pagan will get better defensively/running bases. I also believe his offensive abilities are perfect for Citifield. He hit .306 with a .837ops. If he can put up those #s over an entire season, i would be fine with that out of my LFer.
jaydh
10/31/2009-12:18am at 12:18 am (UTC -4)
And no, i have no idea who the mystery player would be, but I imagine we could offer a nice package of prospects to get someone. Teams always need pitching and if we can dangle a near ML ready guy in Niese packaged with other promising players I feel we could get something special.
trs86
10/31/2009-12:19am at 12:19 am (UTC -4)
Sample size. He has never put up close to those numbers at any point in his career. I hope it’s for real but…
Also, this is a guy who was ran off by Lou for bad fundamentals. It is no guarantee that time is going to cure his ills.
trs86
10/31/2009-12:21am at 12:21 am (UTC -4)
Jay I just can’t see Niese and our prospects bringing back a difference maker on offense that also would only cost 2-4 million or less.
jaydh
10/31/2009-12:22am at 12:22 am (UTC -4)
I am banking on Pagan being like Werth. Not in the stats but rather being a late bloomer that never got the opportunity.
trs86
10/31/2009-12:28am at 12:28 am (UTC -4)
Werth had some very good seasons before becoming a star and was a star in the minor leagues as well putting up some very impressive years. I also don’t recall ever hearing the fact that he had a complete lack of fundamentals.
jaydh
10/31/2009-12:28am at 12:28 am (UTC -4)
I would target a rebuilding team, and try to package something like Niese, Fmart, Marte, Tejeda….basically the only prospects i would hold are davis, holt, flores, mejia. Just pulling this out of my ass, but maybe someone like Adam Lind.
trs86
10/31/2009-12:32am at 12:32 am (UTC -4)
I hate to be the Wanny of the day but Lind is young, cheap and hit: .305.370 .562 .932 with 35 HR. A rebuilding team would not deal him for anything less than the top prospects in the league.
trs86
10/31/2009-12:32am at 12:32 am (UTC -4)
Now if you said Crawford, if he became available then that might work. However, then we would not have the cash to do it.
jaydh
10/31/2009-12:38am at 12:38 am (UTC -4)
The reason i came up with lind is because the Blue Jays need to rebuild big time. I understand he is something like 26 or 27 by the time the season starts, but the Blue Jays are not going to compete right now and could use several high ceiling prospects with a few being close to ready in exchange for 1 player, albeit a good one. I’m not saying we can get Lind, but someone like him from a team in a similar situation. Overwhelm them with our high value prospects. I still believe FMart has a lot of value, and that Niese has a lot of value being almost ML ready. Add some other good prospects and it would be tough for a rebuilder to say no.
jaydh
10/31/2009-12:40am at 12:40 am (UTC -4)
and you are right, i didnt say crawford because of his salary. Its tough, but I’m trying to find a player that fits the criteria of having 3 yrs or less of ML time while being on a team that needs to rebuild.
trs86
10/31/2009-12:42am at 12:42 am (UTC -4)
Wanny is actually good at that. Problem is you are not going to get anyone that has proven himself at all even for a year in the MLB. Otherwise the rebuilding team would most likely hold on to him.
Perhaps a guy like Uggla but he is not a LF. Cantu for 1B could make up some but both of those may be too expensive.
stickguy
10/30/2009-11:53pm at 11:53 pm (UTC -4)
MF4D, I would be shocked if they traded pelfrey this year. I also think maine will be back (and will have a good year). But, maine in the pen? interesting, but I’m not sure it would work out, but nothing is permanent (unless you are heilmann). JM seems like too much of a routine guy to respond to the pen!
trs86
10/30/2009-11:56pm at 11:56 pm (UTC -4)
I actually think Maine could be good in the pen. But for right now he’s in the rotation. I think Omar will sign one of the FA pitchers AND a the 2010 version of Livan.
stickguy
10/31/2009-12:07am at 12:07 am (UTC -4)
oh god, I hope not. The FA is fine, but pelf/maine/perez/neise/neive can cover for the livan role. At most, it better be a ST invite!
trs86
10/31/2009-12:12am at 12:12 am (UTC -4)
I said the 2010 version LOL. You know he can’t go into the season without looking for one scrap heap SP that might stick.
jaydh
10/30/2009-11:58pm at 11:58 pm (UTC -4)
Maine has great stuff and when he is on, he is dominant. That said, I think we need 2 good SP and maine is the most likely(out of pelf, perez, maine) to succeed in the pen.
GravediggerHebner
10/31/2009-12:06am at 12:06 am (UTC -4)
Given the time that Maine has missed recently, I’m intrigued by how he might respond physically to a switch to a short/late role in the pen.
trs86
10/31/2009-12:08am at 12:08 am (UTC -4)
Who knows. What we do know is one thing that hinders him in starting is the high pitch counts because of the multiple fly balls. Not sure what that would do to him in the pen either.
GravediggerHebner
10/31/2009-12:13am at 12:13 am (UTC -4)
Yup. All I’m saying is I’m very open minded to the concept of the attempt, knowing all the while he could possibly end up less effective or more injured due to the transition.
trs86
10/31/2009-12:15am at 12:15 am (UTC -4)
True, I guess what has to be decided is what are the long range plans for Maine.
GravediggerHebner
10/31/2009-12:21am at 12:21 am (UTC -4)
Obviously I have no insider knowledge or crystal ball, but I see Maine falling lower and lower on the organizational depth chart over the next few years, assuming he’s still in the organization.
stickguy
10/31/2009-12:41am at 12:41 am (UTC -4)
big year for maine. He could struggle get hurt and disappear, he could become a stud set up/closer type, or he could have a huge break out year as a healthy SP.
none of the 3 would really surpise me.
GravediggerHebner
10/31/2009-12:30am at 12:30 am (UTC -4)
Speaking of the organizational depth chart, I don’t know who is in charge of making it over at Mets.com, but here for fun is their Mets SP depth chart:
1-Santana
2-Figueroa
3-Pelfrey
4-Maine
5-Parnell
6-Misch
7-Redding
trs86
10/31/2009-12:34am at 12:34 am (UTC -4)
Hmmm, LOL. I guess Figgy had to take Perez’s spot on the roster. LOL.
Speaking of, would anybody be surprised if Redding came back? He is still under team control I think.
GravediggerHebner
10/31/2009-12:40am at 12:40 am (UTC -4)
Yes he is still 1 year away from FA.
I would not be surprised if he were brought back.
He still has excellent career numbers v. the Phils.
If it were my choice, I’d try and get him in Buffalo on a minor league deal as injury insurance. I’m not clear on all the non-tender rules as to whether that’s possible or not.
trs86
10/31/2009-12:44am at 12:44 am (UTC -4)
Me either but does he still have options anyway?
Also, I could see him having some benefit as a long-relief built in spot starer. He could be cheaper than last year based on arbitration and injury right? 20%?
jaydh
10/31/2009-12:43am at 12:43 am (UTC -4)
Redding definately did well over his final 8 games. 3-5 but a 2.98era. I wouldnt be happy, but it could be worse.
stickguy
10/31/2009-12:44am at 12:44 am (UTC -4)
I was wondering about him before. If cheap, he is certainly worth bringing in for the “livan” role. Just as long as he comes cheaper than 2.5mill
trs86
10/31/2009-12:46am at 12:46 am (UTC -4)
He was 2.25 this year so we could offer 20% less I guess.
stickguy
10/31/2009-12:38am at 12:38 am (UTC -4)
my guess is the long range plans for maine are SP. At minimum, he gets another year to see if he can do it with the new shoulder! and hopefully, 1 more pitch (or varient) to help as an out pitch.
as to the discussion about LF, if the go all out and get lackey and another pricey SP (marquis, harden, whoever it has to be), and assuming he goes for a top $$, then there certainly wont be much money left after getting their MI bench guy, Barajas, etc.
so, my idea from the other day (which was load up on pitching, and dont worry about the offense!) comes true, and they go with pagan/carter most likely, with frenchy and beltran + 1 more guy (sullivan? evans? someone else cheapish).
no need to annoint pagan. let them compete, and be willing to go with a rotation in at least LF, if not RF too.
evans could also be a cheap option to semi-platoon with murphy at 1B.
considering where they are today, johan/lackey/(wolf-garland-marquis)/pelfrey/perez rotation and maine/neive helping in the pen and neise in AAA could be solid, and plenty of depth.
castillo (damn, I hate typing his name)/reyes/wright/beltran/francour/LF du jour//murphybarajas with the spare LFs, a MI and santos on the bench? Not huge, but should score some runs. some pop at least all the way 2-8.
like I said earlier, if you aren’t comfortable with the line up, would you feel better plugging holliday (or bay) into LF, but replacing lackey from the rotation and putting Maine in his place?
trs86
10/31/2009-12:40am at 12:40 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I can see the merit for sure but I am almost positive that if the Mets get Lackey there will be NO other pitchers and if the Mets get Holliday there will be no more hitters.
stickguy
10/31/2009-12:47am at 12:47 am (UTC -4)
I’m not sure there will be any hitters though. Guess we shall see!
none of the 2nd tier FA SPs really excite me, so if they did get lackey and then went with the in house poo-poo platter (maine/pelf/ollie/neise/redding?/nieve I would be fine, if they took the 7+ mill savings and invested in the offense or pen.
jaydh
10/31/2009-12:51am at 12:51 am (UTC -4)
If putz is not back, and maine is in the rotation, we definately need a good bullpen arm like soriano or gonzalez. To me its either 2 top starters and a catcher or 1 top starter, 1 top releiver, and a catcher. Either scenario will leave little money to do anything else.
GravediggerHebner
10/31/2009-12:48am at 12:48 am (UTC -4)
I ask this as non-threateningly as possible, but why do you say that?
If for the sake of discussion we are operating with the 28-32 mil window and Lackey/Holliday take up 18 of that, there’s still 10-14 remaining.
I can see some semi-viable SP/LF winding up like the Wolfs and Abreus of last year fitting in financially, with 5-9 left for the 2 mil C and a set up guy.
The way I see it, if the Mets get Lackey there will be no LF, and if the Mets get Holliday there will be no SP, not if they get Lackey there will be no other pitcher and if they get Holliday there will be no other hitter.
In summary I see it more like Stick does, I think.
GravediggerHebner
10/31/2009-12:50am at 12:50 am (UTC -4)
As I re-read that I’m not sure it makes any sense. I’m tired, I’m going to bed. Happy Halloween all!
trs86
10/31/2009-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
Let me explain a little more. IF the Mets sign Lackey they will not go out and sign another pitcher because they won’t see the need, maybe a hitter but not another pitcher. IF the Mets sign Holliday they will not sign another hitter, maybe a lesser pitcher but not another hitter.
Does that make more sense? We are not getting 2 of any position.
stickguy
10/31/2009-12:56am at 12:56 am (UTC -4)
last wild thought before bed.
maybe Omar will juke everyone out, and avoid the FA market entirely (not a bad idea, considering how weak it is) and try to do it through trades?
Maybe a salary dump like harang?
or the real wild idea, get ed wade drunk at the annual “atrocious GM summit” (hat tip to bill simmons) and get a package deal of Oswalt and Berkman. Scrap up the cash for barajas, and shuffle the left overs, and boom you are done.
I know, unlikely the astros do it, but it gets boring arguing holliday vs. lackey (with a little harden thrown in).
Feel free to dream up other blockbusters that will never happen. But if he is healthy for the last 3 years (IIRC) on his deal, johan and oswalt aint shabby. And berkman certainly helps the line up.
oh yeah, LF ends up being the combo platter.
trs86
10/31/2009-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
Sonnanstine and Upton. Disaster but again it’s Omar.