Since a lot of stock is put into the “expert”‘s opinions, especially in the blogosphere, I’m checking in on how Jon Heyman fared with his 2008 free agent predictions. The idea is all thanks to CaseStreet! Here are Heyman’s 2008 FA predictions, and the real outcomes…
CC Sabathia
Heyman: Yankees/7 years/$160
Reality: Yankees/7 years/$161
Mark Teixeira
Heyman: Angels/8 years/$150
Reality: Yankees/8 years/$180
Manny Ramirez
Heyman: Dodgers/3 years/$75
Reality: Dodgers/2 years/$45
AJ Burnett
Heyman: Yankees/5 years/$80
Reality: Yankees/5 years/$82.5
Francisco Rodriguez
Heyman: Rangers/5 years/$75
Reality: Mets/3 years/$37
Derek Lowe
Heyman: Mets/4 years/$56
Reality: Braves/4 years/$60
Ryan Dempster
Heyman: Cubs/4 years/$56
Reality: Cubs/4 years/$52
Brian Fuentes
Heyman: Mets/3 years/$39
Reality: Angels/2 years/$17.5
Ben Sheets
Heyman: Astros/2 years/$28
Reality: Injured, no contract signed
It was really hit or miss with this. Heyman seriously nailed some of these guys (Sabathia, Burnett, Dempster), but completely missed the ball on others (KRod, Fuentes, Sheets). I would say you really have to take what he says with a grain of salt. As impressive as his best three predictions were, you can’t trust them when he flopped on just as many. Heyman released these predictions on November 2nd last year (the baseball season was over earlier though), so if he releases them again in 2009 I expect it to be very soon. It’s also worth mentioning that while rumors and predictions are very separate entities, I’m sure Heyman’s 2008 predictions were aided by early offseason rumors and speculation.
7 comments
trs86
11/6/2009-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
In reality this was pretty damn close.
trs86
11/6/2009-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
Relief market fell all to hell because no one was willing to pay that much for relievers and Sheets was never healthy something he would not have known Nov. 2.
prismo
11/6/2009-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
Of course not, but that’s what predictions are all about. It aint easy! He did a hell of a lot better than any of us would do, but it’s still impossible to predict where all the free agents will go. So while his predictions may have some merit, you should take all of it with a grain of salt.
trs86
11/6/2009-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t get caught up in where as part of the prediction. I focus more on how much. Looks like he got most of those pretty dang close.
CaseStreet
11/6/2009-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
You da man, prismo.
DNDJohan aka kistics
11/6/2009-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
what about Ollie? Where did Heyman say Ollie will go?
prismo
11/6/2009-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
He had team predictions for a ton more players, but not the specifics. I just verified the predictions he made that had the specific contract details.
For the record though, he said Ollie would sign with the Mets for 3 years. (both correct)