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| According to Bart Hubbuch of the New York Post, Mets GM Omar Minaya said Friday that he “wouldn’t rule out” a contract extension for Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur, who turns 26 this winter, was impressive during his time in New York this past season, batting .311/.338/.498 with 10 home runs, 20 doubles and 41 RBI in 289 at-bats. He’s under team control until the 2012, but the Mets would like to lock him up through his arbitration years. Source: Bart Hubbuch on Twitter” |
Terrible decision if true. What’s the rush? Such a small sample size. Let him play so well this year that we have to pay him more vs. overpaying now and regretting it. Worst case is Frenchy is EXCELLENT this year and we have to pay more to keep him but the downside is far worse. Giving him a 3-4 year extension only to see his time with his this past season prove to be a mirage. While I like Frenchy and agree he was VERY good for us during that stretch it a) wasn’t even close to a full season b) wasn’t “out of this world” good, it was very solid. Thoughts?
28 comments
GravediggerHebner
11/13/2009-4:46pm at 4:46 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with your sentiment entirely. I ‘like’ him but why lock him up?
I cannot pretend to be a BABIP expert but I notice that in Francoeur’s career his OBP tends to be BA driven and his BA tends to be good or not dependent on his BABIP.
With the Mets last year his BABIP was .336, which is .032 over his career average of .304. So it stands to reason that as his BABIP returns to his career norm that his BA and OBP will also, and what that leaves us with is a .271/.311 guy.
Worse still, he doesn’t have a career norm so much as he fluctuates between very productive and not productive at all. So we might hope that we would be left with a .271/.311 guy when we could just as likely be left with the .250/.280 guy that he was this year before the Braves traded him.
I don’t think locking him up is wise. These pre-free agency years are the best time for a club to get value for their dollar. The Mets shouldn’t let the fear that he’ll “stay good” convince them to sign him below a perceived future market value that it’s 50/50 he’ll attain. He hasn’t shown enough consistency to be rewarded, and I’ll add a hopeful “yet” to that.
johan4cy
11/13/2009-4:46pm at 4:46 pm (UTC -4)
Jeff Francoeur is officially the Mets most legitimate RF since strawberry, just sayin…
metro
11/13/2009-4:56pm at 4:56 pm (UTC -4)
Roger Cedeno had a GREAT full season in 1999 313/396/408-804 with 66 steals, that was better than what Frenchy did with us (considering the steals and the fact he did it for a full-season) 311/338/498- 1 steal, Nady’s OPS as a Met in half a season was comparable, Huskey in 1997 (287/319/503-822) 24 homers 8 steals (over a full season), Bonilla in 1993 265/352/522- for an .874 OPS was better,
johan4cy
11/13/2009-5:11pm at 5:11 pm (UTC -4)
it was only his first season with the team. No RF has played 2 full years I believe since straw, which definitely gives frenchy the potential to be, thats what I meant which is why they should give him an extension
johan4cy
11/13/2009-5:14pm at 5:14 pm (UTC -4)
ntm that hes also probably the best defensive outfielder of the bunch
stickguy
11/13/2009-5:20pm at 5:20 pm (UTC -4)
there is very little risk for the mets though by not extending him. Way mor eif they do.
Normally they sign for around the expected arb amount midpiont anyway, right? So if he does great, might cost the Mets a few mill more (if he goes way over past production).
If he bombs, the mets are stuck with an immovable contract.
And I really doubt he is going to so far exceed what he has done before that it will cost the mets money.
Plus, they control him ono matter what, so why bother?
Maybe Omar is so unfamiliar with having young 1 year guys he forgot how to do it!
GravediggerHebner
11/13/2009-5:20pm at 5:20 pm (UTC -4)
Johan I would love it if the team could plug the same guy into RF for consecutive years, I’m just not sure that Frenchy is the right guy.
Jayson Werth is a FA next year
stickguy
11/13/2009-5:27pm at 5:27 pm (UTC -4)
werth is an interesting comparable for Frnechy, if he could ever get it through his head that he will be wildly more successful if he would just embrace plate discipline.
Francouer even has another 2 years or so to figure it out before his magical 27YO season.
GravediggerHebner
11/13/2009-5:38pm at 5:38 pm (UTC -4)
The weird thing about Werth is, since he’s been with the Phils, he’s swung at a higher percentage of pitches that are outside the strike zone, and at a lower percentage of pitches that are inside it, than he did before he came to them.
But the important part is that he’s swung at a lower percentage of “all” pitches than previously. Plus he’s made a higher percentage of contact with the pitches that he does swing at than before.
So he swings less often, and makes more contact as a Phil than before.
It seems that he has learned how to identify which pitches are “werth” swinging at for him and which ones are not.
We’ll see if Frenchy can do that.
wannybackstra
11/13/2009-5:49pm at 5:49 pm (UTC -4)
Can’t let that bad pun go unnoticed.
GravediggerHebner
11/13/2009-4:58pm at 4:58 pm (UTC -4)
Bobby Bonilla, Derek Bell, Xavier Nady, Victor Diaz, Butch Huskey, Jeromy Burnitz, Richard Hidalgo. I think he falls in with that group more so than he stands out as better than it.
CaseStreet
11/13/2009-5:13pm at 5:13 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, it’d require two full seasons before he can be given that title. I’m hoping he will show us he is that guy.
GravediggerHebner
11/13/2009-5:05pm at 5:05 pm (UTC -4)
Given the uncertainty surrounding LF for 2010 I certainly want Frenchy back, I just want to make clear in no way am I suggesting non-tendering him in my hesitation to offer him an extension.
The coming season seems like a perfect time for him to enjoy his comfortable 7 figure arbitration contract while both sides learn more about each other.
GravediggerHebner
11/13/2009-5:12pm at 5:12 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting article on Francoeur, written it seems to tell fantasy baseball GMs to stay away, but has some interesting real world stats in it. Basically nothing seems to change with Francoeur but his BABIP which fluctuates wildly and takes everything else along for the wild ride.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/francoeur-in-queens
saltygary
11/13/2009-5:12pm at 5:12 pm (UTC -4)
A discussion or even thought about Frenchy’s contract should be the last thing on Omar’s plate. I think there are a couple other areas he should tend to first.
And Grave dont forget about the amazing Alex Ochoa or Benny Agbayani. Both those guys blew Hidalgo out of the water.
GravediggerHebner
11/13/2009-5:17pm at 5:17 pm (UTC -4)
Salty I spend a few moments every single day trying to forget about Alex Ochoa.
Kingman 26
11/13/2009-5:51pm at 5:51 pm (UTC -4)
HAHA!!!!!
stickguy
11/13/2009-5:14pm at 5:14 pm (UTC -4)
What Metro said.
saved me the trouble of typing 500 words on why this would be a horrible, idiotic move.
Damn, now I know Omar is going to do it…
GravediggerHebner
11/13/2009-5:16pm at 5:16 pm (UTC -4)
One can only hope that “wouldn’t rule it out” is for public consumption. It would suck for Frenchy to pick up the paper and read that Omar had ruled it out.
stickguy
11/13/2009-5:22pm at 5:22 pm (UTC -4)
Even Frenchy should be smart enough to know that the only guys getting these deals now are studs like Lincicum, Longoria, etc. Not corner OFs that are lucky to break .700 OPS.
GravediggerHebner
11/13/2009-5:29pm at 5:29 pm (UTC -4)
Excellent point.
But I can’t recall any GM being asked “Are you going to sign player X who is eligible for arbitration to a long term extension, buying out any arb or FA years?” and responding “No, absolutely not. No! Why would you ask that? Why would we do that? My God, no. Sheesh.”
wannybackstra
11/13/2009-5:47pm at 5:47 pm (UTC -4)
Correct. But hopefully he did… for now at least.
metsfan4decades
11/13/2009-5:53pm at 5:53 pm (UTC -4)
That was my thought when I read that.
Kingman 26
11/13/2009-5:52pm at 5:52 pm (UTC -4)
Metro, I agree with every word of your analysis here.
metsfan4decades
11/13/2009-5:54pm at 5:54 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t remember how many years under control he had left, but the Phils went ahead an gave Hamels that contract to compensate for the arbitration years and then some he had left – right? At the end of ’08?
And look what happened in ’09….
GravediggerHebner
11/13/2009-6:37pm at 6:37 pm (UTC -4)
They did buy out all his arbitration years, the contract set a record for “largest average annual value for multi-year contract for first-time arbitration-eligible pitcher.”
As time passes I am looking deeper and deeper at more obscure statistics than ever before and as near as I can tell Cole’s problem in 2009 was one of the following:
He was worried about his pregnant wife; or
He didn’t throw enough curves. His percentage of curve balls thrown went down and his batting average against (as well as his batting average on balls in play against) went up.
He either needs to throw more curve balls or adopt. But let’s keep this between us, no need for Met fans to help him regain his form.
stickguy
11/13/2009-9:31pm at 9:31 pm (UTC -4)
he did have some arm issues early in the year. Entirely possible that resulted in less curves?
Also saw an interesting stat in the philly paper a few days ago. Don’t recall the exact numbers, but he was pretty good through ~65 pitches, and beyond that, terrible.
something like .250 BAA vs. .450.
Im sure other pitchers go up too (hey, in case you get knocked out!) but that seems to be a big swing.
whataputz
11/15/2009-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
When I first saw that the Mets might extend his contract I thought it was stupid. And yes I definately see why people don’t want the Mets to. However, the more I think about it, the more I want them too. First off, he’s still very young and has already had a couple of very good seasons. Sure he hasn’t exactly established himself yet as he was highly touted coming into the league, but for some reason I just think this is going to be his time. I feel like this trade was great for him, and I think it was the swift kick in the butt he needed to get going. Also, I like the idea of having a guy who’s going to be taking his A game to stick it to ATL every time we play them. We haven’t had a good RF in a while, and especially if the mets shell out some dough this offseason on a LF, I doubt we’re going to be able to sign a good RF next offseason. So I think we should give him 2 more years befor we have to give up and arm and leg for him/ It’s risky, but theres just something about this guy that I really like. He’s got that “it” factor. I know you can’t quantify that and it’s all just a hunch, but he just seems like the guy that could thrive in this town. He’s honest with the media, takes responsibility and looks like a guy players get along with. He showed me something last year when he busted his butt every day playing injured and for an eliminated team. I remember when he hit that shot up the middle that was somehow played by the pitcher for the last out of the game and how he slammed his helmet in frustration. The game meant nothing, we were eliminated, and he was still furious he didn’t win it for us. I like this guy, and I wouldn’t mind seeing his contract extended.