Since many of you don’t know me very well I will state a fact that would seem obvious to those who know me… I LOVE building a team from within. So keep that in mind when I say I think the Mets should still be willing to move some of their prospects. The trade I have in mind would be something like this…..Â Holt, Kunz, Stoner and Tejada for Phillips, Arroyo, Burton.Â Burton had a down year but he’s a solid bullpen arm, Phillips is a huge upgrade over Castillo and Arroyo would likely be very solid at CitiField. None of which would be long term commitments. The Mets would have Phillips at 2b so the need for Tejada would be far less (and still would have Havens). The Mets also reportedly are VERY down on Holt due to his unwillingness to participate in instructional league (and many believe he is a future reliever) Arroyo’s stats neutralized the last 4 years-
2.95 era 1.14 whip-2006
3.89 era 1.36 whip-2007
4.64 era 1.45 whip- 2008
3.74 era 1.27 whip-2009
Considering he has problems with the HR ball gotta figure CitiField would really help.Â Arroyo would likely give you comprable stats to Lackey with only a 1 year commitment (2011 option) and Phillips is only guaranteed the next 2 years. Neither player would be a longterm headache should either not work out.Â Â Your paying 80+ million for Lackey vs. 11 million for Arroyo. There is FAR less of a gamble and Arroyo’s ERA+ the last 4 seasons is 142, 109, 93 and 112. So for a gamble of 69 less million dollars you are getting a WORSE pitcher but not a pitcher 69 million dollars of gamble worse. Arroyo also has made 136 starts over his past 4 seasons (34 a year) and an average of 217.6 innings per year, Lackey over the same period has averaged 29.25 starts per year (only 25.5 over the past 2) and in terms of innings has averaged 195 innings over his last 4 years and only 169.6 over his last 2.
If your asking who the better pitcher is the answer is John Lackey, but if your asking what makes more sense a) giving 31 year old Lackey 5 years 17+ million coming off 2 straight seasons of less than 180 innings OR b) Getting Arroyo on the “cheap” because theÂ Reds are trying to cut salary and only having an 11 million dollar commitment I don’t even think the choice is that close. The Mets would be adding 2 strong pieces to the roster for 2010 and 2011 (assuming they picked up Arroyo’s option) and yet still have a TON of money coming off the books following 2011 allowing them to both lock up Reyes and Wright AND make a run at some huge names…. Pujols? PLEASE!!! lol
PS It also doesn’t hurt that Arroyo seemingly is great almost every start he has made recently in NY. 2009- complete game shutout, 2008 8 innings 4 hits 1 run 9 k’s, 2007- 7 innings 8 hits 3 runs 1 walk 3 k’s 2006- complete game 7 hits 2 runs 1 walk 5 k’s… obviously a VERY small sample size but the guy seems to do well despite the pressure of the NY fans.