Since many of you don’t know me very well I will state a fact that would seem obvious to those who know me… I LOVE building a team from within. So keep that in mind when I say I think the Mets should still be willing to move some of their prospects. The trade I have in mind would be something like this….. Holt, Kunz, Stoner and Tejada for Phillips, Arroyo, Burton. Burton had a down year but he’s a solid bullpen arm, Phillips is a huge upgrade over Castillo and Arroyo would likely be very solid at CitiField. None of which would be long term commitments. The Mets would have Phillips at 2b so the need for Tejada would be far less (and still would have Havens). The Mets also reportedly are VERY down on Holt due to his unwillingness to participate in instructional league (and many believe he is a future reliever) Arroyo’s stats neutralized the last 4 years-
2.95 era 1.14 whip-2006
3.89 era 1.36 whip-2007
4.64 era 1.45 whip- 2008
3.74 era 1.27 whip-2009
Considering he has problems with the HR ball gotta figure CitiField would really help. Arroyo would likely give you comprable stats to Lackey with only a 1 year commitment (2011 option) and Phillips is only guaranteed the next 2 years. Neither player would be a longterm headache should either not work out.  Your paying 80+ million for Lackey vs. 11 million for Arroyo. There is FAR less of a gamble and Arroyo’s ERA+ the last 4 seasons is 142, 109, 93 and 112. So for a gamble of 69 less million dollars you are getting a WORSE pitcher but not a pitcher 69 million dollars of gamble worse. Arroyo also has made 136 starts over his past 4 seasons (34 a year) and an average of 217.6 innings per year, Lackey over the same period has averaged 29.25 starts per year (only 25.5 over the past 2) and in terms of innings has averaged 195 innings over his last 4 years and only 169.6 over his last 2.
If your asking who the better pitcher is the answer is John Lackey, but if your asking what makes more sense a) giving 31 year old Lackey 5 years 17+ million coming off 2 straight seasons of less than 180 innings OR b) Getting Arroyo on the “cheap” because the Reds are trying to cut salary and only having an 11 million dollar commitment I don’t even think the choice is that close. The Mets would be adding 2 strong pieces to the roster for 2010 and 2011 (assuming they picked up Arroyo’s option) and yet still have a TON of money coming off the books following 2011 allowing them to both lock up Reyes and Wright AND make a run at some huge names…. Pujols? PLEASE!!! lol
PS It also doesn’t hurt that Arroyo seemingly is great almost every start he has made recently in NY. 2009- complete game shutout, 2008 8 innings 4 hits 1 run 9 k’s, 2007- 7 innings 8 hits 3 runs 1 walk 3 k’s 2006- complete game 7 hits 2 runs 1 walk 5 k’s… obviously a VERY small sample size but the guy seems to do well despite the pressure of the NY fans.
23 comments
trs86
11/16/2009-8:16am at 8:16 am (UTC -4)
I like it. I like Harang or Arroyo for the staff. Neither keep you from getting Lackey or Holliday if they stay market value.
You could do Arroyo/Harang, Wolf, Phillips, Delgado, Cameron for 32 if you dump Castillo.
Reyes, Phillips, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, Frenchy, Cameron, Santos
Johan, Arroyo/Harang, Wolf, Pelfrey, Perez/Maine
njstuckintx
11/16/2009-9:28am at 9:28 am (UTC -4)
I completely agree. Mets need to take advantage of the fiscal situation. This is where they need to strike. Personnally would prefer to get another option than Delgado. Ideally I would like to get Doumit from Pittsburg and slot him at first, where he has logged time. Mets could have Murph and Doumit split time at first and Doumit do 1-2 games a week behind the plate, with Santos taking a majority of the other playing time.
Delgado is good and I think on the cheap could be wonderful, production wise, but if changing the culture and getting younger are important (which we know they are), it’s time to let the SS Delgado sail away.
metsfan4decades
11/16/2009-8:52am at 8:52 am (UTC -4)
You just know that Omar will go all in for Lackey, overpay, and call it a day with the pitching staff.
Not that I mind getting Lackey at all but as so many have suggested there might be more creative options to be had. I guess we’ll be finding out just how creative Omar is….
trs86
11/16/2009-8:57am at 8:57 am (UTC -4)
True, but sometimes when you think he won’t he does. Example Loduca and Delagdo in 2006.
darknova306
11/16/2009-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
I like it, especially with how gun shy I am of long term deals given to pitchers.
I know there were rumors of some sort of Castillo for Pierre deal being in the works, so how about a lineup including (in no particular batting order): Pierre, Reyes, Phillips, Beltran and Wright? That’d be a ton of speed in the 1-5 spots. Also, a 3-5 of Phillips, Beltran and Wright gives some nice power (assuming Wright has a bounce back year), as Phillips has shown decent power over the his brief career. Add in Murphy’s 38 doubles from this season to the bottom of the order, and assuming Failcoeur shows his time with us last season wasn’t a total fluke, and you’ve got the makings of a solid lineup in my mind with better defense than last year.
trs86
11/16/2009-9:18am at 9:18 am (UTC -4)
I like the idea and have thought about Pierre but is he really good enough to justify taking on an additional 4 million this year and 6.5 million total? I would think that we could get a better player late in the year to play LF for that 4 million and just cut Castillo if we could not dump him.
Also the guy is normally a .330 OBP guy, please don’t put him in the top of the order.
Kingman 26
11/16/2009-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
Wow, except for ERA, Arroyo’s career numbers a LOT closer to Lackey’s than I would have imagined!
Damn, we really should get him if this is possible.
trs86
11/16/2009-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
Why not get Harang, Arroyo and Phillips? Dump Castillo. That’s still only 25 million after dumping Castillo.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
Do you plan on sending the entire AAA and AA team?
trs86
11/16/2009-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
It’s a salary dump. They don’t want to pay Harang’s cash especially.
trs86
11/16/2009-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
It’s really only in jest, but I don’t see a package with Arroyo and Phillips costing much less than Arroyo, Harang and Phillips.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
or they could sell them individually and get much more in return
trs86
11/16/2009-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
They could with Phillips and Arroyo you may be right. However, with Harang? I think they are lucky to get a bench player or a minor league kid with any potential.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
I think these guys would probably have much more value than a salary dump in exchange for a guy many project to be a reliever, a 19 year old who probably is a utility infielder and two guys who will be lucky to have any major league role at all.
trs86
11/16/2009-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
Arroyo perhaps. I am unsure on Phillips as his contract really is a negative in 2011. Harang I think they would dump for a couple of Evans types.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
Phillips at $17.75 over the next two, or approximately $9m per, is not all that bad given his offensive production and defense at 2B.
If I was offered Eddie Kunz and Tobi Stoner I’d probably hang up the phone.
Arroyo costs $13 with his 2011 buyout or $11 per if you keep him, Harang costs $25.25m or $14.5 with his buyout.
I agree that Harang is a horrific contract that they’d probably dump for two B type prospects.
Arroyo is a tougher call. $11m doesn’t seem all that unreasonable for a guy who at least takes the ball every time with a credible outing when compared to the Silvas and Ollies of the world.
trs86
11/16/2009-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
If you look at it as 9 million per then maybe I can agree. He is getting a lot of money for 2010 though and I think they will trade him then because you could not offer him arbitration as he would then most likely get 13+ million. So my point was they may be more inclined to trade him now while his value is still high. A team like the Nationals could use him this year and then trade him next year, where as next year the Nats would not touch him.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
There you go. If his value is high right now, Eddie Kunz won’t get it done.
prismo
11/16/2009-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
My main issue with Harang is that he’s just so darn ugly. I’m not sure if I can stare at that mug of his for an entire season.
trs86
11/16/2009-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
If you dump Castillo then it would be a great tradeoff. 1 day every 5 of Harang or 5/5 for Castillo.
Kingman 26
11/16/2009-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Gotta be better looking than having to look at the crap all over Redding’s face….damn, he needs a shave, and I hope he gets one in some city far, far away from Queens….
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
I was thinking about Redding cuz he actually almost made it on the list.
To grave’s point about prospects, we might’ve never would’ve seen Redding or the Chief or Livan if we had some young guys to compete for the 5th spot. Humber and Mulvey or even new Mariner Vargas would’ve made Redding, the Chief and Livan unnecessary.
Of course I’d make the Santana trade 1K times over, just saying that even throw away prospects have an effect when they are traded.
stickguy
11/16/2009-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
count me in on this plan. Or swap in Harang if the cost (players) goes way down.
right now, if they can add arroyo, philips, cameron and Wolf/garland/marquis (all on 2 year or less deals, even the trade guys), and subtract Castillo, I like it.
Team is good enough to win in 2010-2011, but you aren’t giving up any big pieces of any future core.
Plus, the key guy picked up (philips) is young enough to have a LT future.
Everyone else clears off the payroll after 2010 or 2011.
and not an albatross contract in the bunch (the reds pitcher being the big one, but on ly 1 year guarantee).