This is my second installment of a three part series titled, “Mets Need†where I’ll be discussing the Mets needs and suggesting how to address those needs.
In case you missed it last week, in Mets Need: Defense!, I argued that the Mets need to improve the team by acquiring good fielders like Mike Cameron, Lyle Overbay, Placido Polanco and Rod Barajas.
In addition to improving Defense, the Mets need to improve their pitching. As GravediggerHebner discussed last week in Let’s Talk About # 2, the Mets need an ace type pitcher to slot behind Johan Santana. What I’ll attempt to do here is begin the discussion on what makes a good pitcher and how to improve the Mets pitching.
So to Fred and Jeff Wilpon, Omar Minaya and the rest of the Mets Leadership, I say, “Mets Need Pitching!â€
For the full article, click on the link below. See you after the jump.First, the Mets need to move heaven and earth to get free agent pitching coach extraordinaire, Dave Duncan.
Duncan has expressed displeasure over the way his son Chris, a Cardinals outfielder who was traded to Boston earlier this summer, had been treated in the news media, and he ceased speaking to the St. Louis-area newspapers. He did take time to speak to an out-of-town reporter and pondered for a moment the notion that the highly successful partnership he and La Russa forged during the 1980s might soon be disbanded.
Why? New York Times reporter David Waldstein does a great job of breaking down what Duncan has been able to do in St. Louis:
- Before joining the Cardinals, Smoltz had what he termed the worst four-game stretch of his career, giving up 35 hits and 25 earned runs in 20 innings with the Red Sox. Since joining forces with Duncan, he has allowed one run in 11 innings and struck out 15.
- Before joining the Cardinals in 2004, Chris Carpenter was one game under .500 with the Toronto Blue Jays and his earned run average was 4.83. In the six years since he began working with Duncan, Carpenter is 42 games over .500 with an E.R.A. less than 3.00 and owns a Cy Young Award (one of four pitchers to win the award under Duncan).
- Before joining the Cardinals, Wainwright was a game under .500 with an E.R.A. approaching 5.00 in three mediocre years at Class AAA. In five years with Duncan, he has developed into one of the league’s best pitchers and is now 16-7 with a 2.47 E.R.A.
- One of Duncan’s more famous reclamation projects was Darryl Kile, who was 21-30 with a 5.84 E.R.A. in two years in Colorado. In his first year in St. Louis, Kile rebounded to 20-9 with a 3.91 E.R.A., and before he died in 2002, he had compiled a 41-24 record under Duncan.
- Kyle Lohse endured four straight seasons with a losing record and never had an E.R.A. under 4.18 before coming to St. Louis in 2008. In his first year with Duncan, Lohse went 15-6 with a 3.78 E.R.A.
Imagine what Duncan can do for Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey and John Maine. How good would the team’s pitching be if Perez walked less batters, if Maine produced more ground balls, or if Pelfrey struck out more batters?
Of course, I’m not holding my breath in the hopes that the Mets do lure Duncan to Queens (though I may talk to a certain bagel guy near Citi Field). Instead, let’s focus on other ways to improve the team pitching, specifically looking at what type of pitchers the Mets should be targeting and which ones are available.
This article in Baseball Time in Arlington takes a look at the three most important pitching stats in predicting major league success. In order of importance, they are strikeout, walk rate and groundball/flyball ratio. Stikeouts are worth more from a pitching perspective because it is a guaranteed out. Ground balls are four times as valuable as fly balls because “fly balls are more likely to go for extra base hits and ground balls are more likely to produce double plays.”
The difference in ERA between a high strikeout-low walk/ground ball pitcher and a low strikeout-high walk/fly ball pitcher is substantial (3.15 vs. 5.90). Assuming similar walk and GB/FB rates, the difference between a strikeout pitcher (9.0 K/9) and a non-strikeout pitcher (5.0 K/9) is nearly 1.5 runs per game. Assuming similar strikeout and walk rates, the difference between a fly ball pitcher (0.75 GB/FB) and a ground ball pitcher (2.00 GB/FB) is approximately 0.75 runs per game. Assuming similar strikeout and GB/FB rates, the difference between a pitcher with good control (2.0 BB/9) and relatively poor control (4.0 BB/9) is 0.6 runs per game.
As the chart from BBTIA shows, a poor pitcher in any of these three areas will greatly increase a player’s ERA. A pitcher with a 7K/9 , 3BB/9 and 1.00 GB/FB projects to a league average 4.50 ERA. Highlighted in orange are other combinations that will produce the same result. Bolded in black from left to right are the approximate projected ERAs for Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey and John Maine. Oliver Perez is literally off the charts.
| GB/FB | 2BB/9K | 2BB/7K | 2BB/5K | 3BB/9K | 3BB/7K | 3BB/5K | 4BB/9K | 4BB/7K | 4BB/5K |
| 0.75 | 3.81 | 4.43 | 5.30 | 4.11 | 4.73 | 5.60 | 4.41 | 5.03 | 5.90 |
| 1.00 | 3.61 | 4.20 | 5.05 | 3.91 | 4.50 | 5.35 | 4.21 | 4.80 | 5.65 |
| 1.25 | 3.46 | 4.02 | 4.85 | 3.76 | 4.32 | 5.15 | 4.06 | 4.62 | 5.45 |
| 1.50 | 3.33 | 3.87 | 4.70 | 3.63 | 4.17 | 5.00 | 3.93 | 4.47 | 5.30 |
| 2.00 | 3.15 | 3.66 | 4.46 | 3.45 | 3.96 | 4.76 | 3.75 | 4.26 | 5.06 |
Let’s take a look at how the current rotation compares over the past three years:
| Player | GB/FB | K/9 | BB/9 |
| Johan Santana | 0.92 | 8.52 | 2.34 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 1.69 | 5.15 | 3.29 |
| Oliver Perez | 0.65 | 8.57 | 4.98 |
| John Maine | 0.89 | 7.79 | 3.93 |
There is much room for improvement in the Mets rotation. If Pelfrey could get two more strike outs per game, he’d project to a 4.17 ERA. If Oliver Perez walked only 3 batters per nine innings, he’d project to a 4.11 ERA. And if John Maine walked one less batter or increased his ground ball rate to 1.50, he’d project to a 4.50 ERA. Ideally, Omar Minaya & Co. will be able to add a pitcher or two who is accomplished in these areas. Below is a list of 2010 and 2011 Free Agents (minimum of 200 innings for the past 3 seasons) that fit into two of the three categories ( K/9 of >5K, a BB/9 of <4K and a GB/FB of >0.75):
| Player | GB/FB | K/9 | BB/9 |
| Josh Beckett | 1.33 | 8.66 | 1.98 |
| Erik Bedard | 1.16 | 9.96 | 3.33 |
| Kelvim Escobar | 1.14 | 7.4 | 3.14 |
| Randy Johnson | 1.06 | 8.8 | 2.38 |
| John Lackey | 1.27 | 7.15 | 2.22 |
| Brett Myers | 1.34 | 7.63 | 3.14 |
| Carl Pavano | 1.14 | 6.10 | 1.87 |
| Andy Pettitte | 1.44 | 6.56 | 2.91 |
| John Smoltz | 1.17 | 8.86 | 2.11 |
| Randy Wolf | 0.98 | 7.38 | 2.98 |
| Bronson Arroyo | 1.05 | 6.36 | 2.80 |
| Joe Blanton | 1.25 | 5.98 | 2.38 |
| Jeff Francis | 1.20 | 6.49 | 2.81 |
| Roy Halladay | 1.84 | 7.00 | 1.55 |
| Aaron Harang | 0.86 | 7.90 | 2.26 |
| Cliff Lee | 1.09 | 6.77 | 1.84 |
| Jamie Moyer | 1.08 | 5.58 | 2.81 |
| Javier Vazquez | 0.99 | 9.09 | 2.17 |
| Brandon Webb | 3.08 | 7.30 | 2.68 |
Obviously, the Red Sox aren’t about to trade Beckett and the Phillies and Braves likely won’t be sending any of their pitchers to the Mets. If I were Omar Minaya, I would be targeting Erk Bedard, Randy Johnson, John Lackey, Brett Myers, John Smoltz, Randy Wolf, Aaron Harang and Brandon Webb. Bedard had surgery in August for a torn labrum and may not be available for Opening Day but is the ideal buy low candidate. Randy Johnson returned from the 60 day DL in September and is also a high reward – low risk candidate. As Grave noted, Lackey is the perfect match for the Mets. John Smoltz has indicated he wants to return to pitch in the National League after regaining his form with the Cardinals. Randy Wolf may cost more than what the Mets could have paid him last year but like last year, he may still be job hunting after the New Year. Harang’s $12.5M salary in 2010 would greatly reduce any potential trade but if he were packaged with Brandon Phillips the Reds could deal Harang as they attempt to reduce budget. The Diamondbacks picked up Webb’s $8.5M option but Webb wouldn’t consider an extension. Keep your eye on Webb for a mid-season trade.
Pairing John Lackey with any of these pitchers would go a great way to improve the Mets rotation next year. Still though, the Mets do have prospects that could see their way to the rotation next year. Here’s a look at how the Mets Starting Pitching prospects faired in 2009:
- Bradley Holt (A+) 11.22 K/9, 2.70 BB/9 in 9 GS, (AA) 6.98 K/9, 3.57 BB/9 in 11 GS
- Jonathan Niese (AAA) 7.82 K/9, 2.48 BB/9 in 16 GS, (Mets) 6.31 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 in 5 GS
- Jenry Mejia (A+) 7.87 K/9, 2.86 BB/9 in 9 GS, (AA) 9.54 K/9, 4.67 BB/9 in 10 GS
- Scott Moviel(A+) 6.44 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 in 13 GS
- Dillon Gee (AAA) 7.82 K/9, 2.98 BB/9 in 9 GS
- Angel Calero (A+) 7.80 K/9, 3.86 BB/9 in 22 GS
- Michael Antonini (AA) 6.73 K/9, 2.66 BB/9 in 20 GS, (AAA) 7.36 K/9, 3.68 in 2 GS
Assignment: Which pitchers do you want for the Mets next season? (Please post your choice in the comments. We want to hear from you.)
Stay tuned next week for the next installment of “Mets Need”. And if you are on Facebook or Twitter, please become a fan or followThe Real Dirty Mets Blog. Let’s Go Mets!
31 comments
trs86
11/16/2009-8:05am at 8:05 am (UTC -4)
You guys know my feelings on all this. I really like Lackey as a #2 yet I am concerned about his injury issues and know the Mets need more than JUST SP. If he can be had for 4/64 or less I would jump on that deal and run. Perhaps it’s possible that Omar can do just that but now it seems as though even the Rsox are getting involved. Hopefully that’s just due dilligence but if so and there is a bidding war I want no part in it. Lackey might be the best available but I still can’t say that Harang AND Wolf would not offer the same results if you got both.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
I don’t see the red sox getting involved, the yankees you never know.
I’d like to think lackey like Krod won’t get a big contract due to the economy.
Harang and wolf is def an option. I tend to agree with the idea that you shouldn’t trade top prospects unless ur getting a top player in return like the Santana deal. Would it be better to sign lackey and polanco?
trs86
11/16/2009-9:24am at 9:24 am (UTC -4)
Again, it just depends on how much Lackey cost. If it’s 5/90 it’s not better any way you look at it. As for the Redsox it really depends on what direction they go in. They have expressed interest. They could easily trade DiceK sign Lackey and go with Cameron for CF moving Ellsbury to LF.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
are the Sox sour on Dice-K? he’s very cheap at $28M over next 3 years, plus he’s got a full no trade clause.
Re: Cameron, I thought I’ve read somewhere that Epstein has some age limit thing and won’t sign guys over 36.
trs86
11/16/2009-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
Variteck is 37 and plays catcher.
Sour? Maybe not but for sure moveable. Especially after last year.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
Varitek had a player option and wears a C on his jersey and carries tons of fan sentimentality.
trs86
11/16/2009-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
True, but they gave him that option last year knowing he would be 37. Just saying the rule is not set in stone.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
Niese ang Gee’s numbers looked pretty good in AAA. Then add Holt and Mejia mid-year, and Buffalo has some pretty good pitching.
trs86
11/16/2009-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
Niese and Gee are both recovering from injury and Holt’s innings were very limited. I hope you are right.
Kingman 26
11/16/2009-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
Really great work Case; I especially appreciate it as I really don’t visit the sites which have all of these latest stats.
And I will take Lackey and Arroyo please.
Or Lackey and Wolf.
OK, OK, or Lackey and Randy Johnson.
trs86
11/16/2009-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
Randy is intriging. I wonder if he would even want to come back to NY?
What about Arroyo and a guy like Wolf or even Sheets/Harden?
Again, assuming that Lackey prices himself out of the market. If not then of course I want Lackey too.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
sorry, Sheets and Harden didn’t make it on the list
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
Excellent stuff Case. Your level of research is something I continue to aspire to.
Speaking of making it onto lists, here are Lackey, Wolf, Sheets and Harden’s WAR rankings since 2002. To be fair to Harden his career started in 2003, so we can cut him some slack for that. The rest all came up in or prior to 2002.
2002
Lackey – not enough innings to qualify.
Wolf – 36
Sheets – 30
Harden – as noted above didn’t “exist” yet.
2003
Lackey – 63
Wolf – 59
Sheets – 31
Harden – not enough innings to qualify.
2004
Lackey – 23
Wolf – not enough innings to qualify.
Sheets – 2
Harden – 15
2005
Lackey – 6
Wolf – not enough innings to qualify.
Sheets – not enough innings to qualify.
Harden – not enough innings to qualify.
2006
Lackey – 4
Wolf – not enough innings to qualify.
Sheets – not enough innings to qualify.
Harden – not enough innings to qualify.
2007
Lackey – 7
Wolf – not enough innings to qualify.
Sheets – not enough innings to qualify.
Harden – not enough innings to qualify.
2008
Lackey – 60
Wolf – 63
Sheets – 22
Harden – not enough innings to qualify.
2009
Lackey – 22
Wolf – 47
Sheets – not enough innings to qualify.
Harden – not enough innings to qualify.
So has it occurred to anyone that one important reason these guys are going to be cheaper than Lackey is because unlike him they can’t seem to pitch enough innings to consistently qualify for consideration among the leagues’ best?
trs86
11/16/2009-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
Very true, which is why he will get paid MUCH MUCH more than any of the others. Couple that with the fact that he is the best in a weak FA market. So again, I like Lackey but it depends on how much he is getting paid.
Look at the last 2 years with Lackey and Wolf. Looks like Wolf has the slight edge. Now of course he is an injury concern but he has been healthier the last 2 years than Lackey. Obviously I would trust Lackey more than Wolf but 72 million dollars more? Nope.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
How does Wolf have the slight edge?
2008 60 Lackey, 63 Wolf
2009 22 Lackey, 47 Wolf
That’s an average of 41 for Lackey and 55 for Wolf. The difference between a high end # 2 and a low end # 2, precisely what I’m trying to get is the high end guy.
trs86
11/16/2009-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
Why is there such a big difference in Lackey’s 2008 compared to 2009?
And again because of the fact that Wolf comes at half the price and half the years but is not half the pitcher.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
thanks grave, as you know it’s labor intensive, but a labor of love
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
yeah, I’d take either one of those options (at the right price trs)
Lackey and Wolf would prob be the most solid and gives you another lefty.
Lackey $16M
Wolf $8M
Cameron $8M
Trade Castillo for anything and replace him with the many 2B options.
trs86
11/16/2009-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
That’s again assuming that the Yanks and RSox don’t get involved. If they do then I don’t see us getting Lackey for 16.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
Does that even have to be said? Isn’t it every year where all teams have to be thankful that the World Champion Yankees allow other teams to sign free agents?
trs86
11/16/2009-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
No not really, some guys they don’t want or need because they already have a guy they overpaid in that spot. LOL.
But my point is that as I have stated over and over Lackey at 15-16 for 3-4 years is a good deal. If those two get involved and it goes 5/90 I am no longer sure.
stickguy
11/16/2009-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
I feel somewhat vindicated that guys I have touted (often to great scorn…) made your list!
harang/pilsp? Great. Wolf for 2 years? worth the shot.
I also liked Brett Myers, so good to see him show up.
Lackey is the obvious choice, but if he doesn’t work out, 2 of these other guys (go with the best contracts? throw darts?) gives the rotation (and in some cases, the pen) a solid upgrade, and ay more depth.
myers, harang, arroyo, sheets, wolf all are improvments.
Johnson I don’t see (and I think his body just can’t do it anymore). ANd bedard? Only if really cheap, considering the surgery he had.
sheets could be very interesting if he proves he can throw effectively 1st.
so many choices. ANd like TRS, I really worry about committing to Lackey for 5/90, or whtever it might end up being.
trs86
11/16/2009-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. You could easily do something like Harang, Wolf, and Myers and completely remodel your pitching STAFF not just rotation as Myers could slot in as #4 starter or setup.
The total cost of that COULD only be 24 million or so.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
3rd place ja ja ja
trs86
11/16/2009-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
LOL, Alex.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
Anyone have any thoughts on Duncan? He hasn’t signed anywhere right?
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know how truthful or “firm” this is but…
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/tipsheet/tipsheet/2009/10/divorce-casts-cloud-over-dodgers-future/
trs86
11/16/2009-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah I don’t believe there is any way he leaves now. They are going for one more year.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
fuckers!
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
It never ceases to amaze me that we can type here!
I subsequently have found an official press release at StlCardinals.com that says Duncan was re-hired in case we thought there was any wiggle room left.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-1:23pm at 1:23 pm (UTC -4)
lol,
Valentin, Jaramillo and Duncan
sigh!