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I throwing in a dark horse for a pitching acquisition-Roy Oswalt.Â
He is under contract for the next two years but if the Astros are looking to cut payroll, I think the Mets should take a chance on him. He is due 15 million in 2010 and 16 million for 2011. They overpaid him and they know it.Â
Roy Oswalt is coming off a bad year, his back has been giving him problems which caused the Astros to shut him down in September.   He is currently recovering from back surgery(herniated disk) and should be ready for Spring Training.  Oswalt was 8-6 and posted a 4.12 ERA, he logged 181 innings this year.Â
I know that the Mets are hot on(depending on the latest rumor)Lackey or Holliday. But from a financial point of view, look at Oswalt, he’s only 31 and under contract for the next two years. The money owed to him just might make him tradable without emptying the farm system. The back injury just might make the Astros reconsider building their pitching staff around him.Â
Yea, I know, the why would the Mets get an pitcher with back issues, but lets put it another way. Even if the Mets treated him with kid gloves for a while the upside would be tremendous.  He’s a great arm and he loves the big stage. He’s a gamer.Â
Any thoughts?
148 comments
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
Hmm, Oswalt’s contract is slightly less than what Lackey is rumored to be asking for but you’d lose prospects and run the risk of him not coming back healthy from the back surgery.
Though if he is healthy you get a bulldog of a pitcher. Interesting idea gonzo.
njstuckintx
11/16/2009-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
This is one route the Mets should stay far away from. The combo of a small-ish type pitch who generates alot torque sprinkled with a bad back, I’d think you would end up with a condensed version of Pedro. On DL half the time and above average when off the DL.
Combine this with the fact that he is a “good ol’ Southern Boy”, I do not see him waiving his no trade clause to come to the Mets. Plus, what would it take for him to waive that no trade clause?
If the Mets want an Astro, get Berkman.
trs86
11/16/2009-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
Could they get both? If the Astros ever deal one then they are dealing all 3 in Lee, Berkman and Oswalt. I don’t see them dealing any.
However, at least Oswalt’s contract is short and perhaps he would want to switch to a “pitchers” park.
njstuckintx
11/16/2009-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
I’d take Berkman and Oswalt in a NY minute. Problem is that all 3 have no trade clauses. Getting 1 would be difficult enough, let alone 2.
Of them all, Oswalt is the most likely to be dealt. Lee’s contract, while not as bas as Wells, if pretty bad. No one would want to take his salary on at 20Mil per season. Yeah, he hits a ton, but saying his fielding is lacking is giving him too much credit. Berkman is the best of the 3, but the face of the Astros and unless they get signifcant haul of ready to almost ready minor leaguers (which the Mets really do not have), he’s staying. Then again, Berkman was dreaming he was a Met, or so I read. At least he didn’t say that was a nightmare…
Kingman 26
11/16/2009-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
The real issue here is whether Roy Harvey Oswalt was in Berkman’s coming-to-the-Mets dream…..
trs86
11/16/2009-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
At least with a name like that there is a good chance he would go on a killing spree in the front office.
Kingman 26
11/16/2009-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
LOL!! We can dream!
DNDJohan aka kistics
11/16/2009-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
Oswalt trading issue has come up before, but from what I’ve heard, the owner did not want him traded. So if the Astros are cutting payroll, I think the possible candidate would be Lee. I wouldn’t mind trading for Lee though his contract is big ($18.5M for the next 3 years).
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
Lee’s agent has already said he won’t waive his NTC and I highly doubt anyone would pay him anymore than he makes already to entice him.
Oswalt seems to be a perfect decline candidate.
trs86
11/16/2009-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
Maybe. Can’t really tell. He could just as easily rebound next year.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
The recent back surgery scares me more than some other guys’ health concerns, but I have to say I know nothing about pitchers and recovery or not from such surgery.
I agree with whoever above was wary of short/slight pitchers over the long haul.
In Oswalt’s favor, according to fangraphs dollar value (they hypothesize this is what the player would earn on the free agent market based on their stats for any given year) his performance has exceeded his actual contract every year prior to 2009, but fell just short for this year ($13.8 versus actual $14).
So ultimately for me it boils down to, was this one off year or the start of a decline? I’d prefer to let someone else find out unless all other less risky choices were eliminated.
DNDJohan aka kistics
11/16/2009-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
Thanks for the info. I did not know that. Berkman and Oswalt are likely candidate then. But I believe they both have NTC as well.
stickguy
11/16/2009-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
why does any team give a full NTC these days? They should be banned.
trs86
11/16/2009-11:20am at 11:20 am (UTC -4)
Thing is if I were the Astro’s owner I go all out and try and win next year. The money is likely already spent.
Go get Sheets, Tejada for 3B (IF he will), Myers, trade for a CF…
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
Don’t the Astros have a centerfielder who just won a gold glove and stole a half a million bases?
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
Yes, and he wasn’t Bourn yesterday.
fongy2
11/16/2009-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
But at least he was Bourne free!
trs86
11/16/2009-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
This guy:
.285 .354 .384 .738
Yeah, but what if he turns back into this guy
.262 .327 .349 .676
or even worse this guy
.229 .288 .300 .588
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
of course the same supposition can be made about virtually every major league player, specifically many of whom you repeatedly recommend as reasonably priced upgrades to a certain team’s pitching staff.
trs86
11/16/2009-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
I don’t really know any that I have suggested that have only had ONE successful season and that season produced a .738 OPS.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
It also produced excellent defense in CF and costs the team nothing.
trs86
11/16/2009-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
Very true. But IF you were going for it all in Houston next year would you trust it? I guess you could bring in a guy who could play all the OF positions as a 4th OF type. Maybe a Pagan type.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
If I’m Houston I can find better places to spend my money than a position where I am getting gold glove defense in a very difficult to play CF for next to nothing.
If you’re the Mets, aren’t you concerned that Randy Wolf reverts back to his 2004-2007 innings totals and production?
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
TRS you haven’t suggested someone that specific, no, but Wanny above hits on my thought as far as Wolf and a regression.
You don’t trust Bourn to improve or stay steady and that’s perfectly reasonable.
I think it’s also reasonable to doubt Wolf will produce at an acceptable level.
trs86
11/16/2009-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
If I sign Lackey would I not be concerned that those potential elbow issues are for real?
I would think that Wolf is a different case than Lackey just as Bourn is also a different case than others suggested. The guy has had ONE good season. Also according to Fangraphs Bourn ranked below Cameron on defense as well. I am not saying dump him but if I were the Astros with Lee and Berkman I would bring in Cameron too and let Bourn or Cameron be the rotation guy.
Why the hell are we arguing Bourn anyway? LOL. I am sure some how it’s my fault and I appologize to everyone.
trs86
11/16/2009-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
Grave I think Wolf has performed well for at least 2 seasons in a row. I don’t think that is a very good comparision. Wolf when healthy has been very good. Bourn has been good 1 out of 2 years he has played everday but the problem is the other year he was worse than bad.
Again with Wolf I admit there is injury concern but he has been as healthy or even more healthy than Lackey the last 2 years. OF course Lackey is the better pitcher and most LIKELY will be healthier if you were signing longterm. However, due to those circumstances IF Lackey cost 5/90 and Wolf cost 2/18 I am choosing Wolf.
Anyway moving on.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
I’m sure the Astros have bigger needs than paying several million dollars for the luxury of having a gold glover who lead the NL in stolen bases on the bench.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
I have not been offended and don’t think an apology is necessary, but if it will allow some progress elsewhere I will accept it?
What it boils down to for me is that Lackey, even with his disabled list stints the last two years, has pitched enough innings to qualify for consideration among the league’s best starting pitchers every year from 2003-2009 inclusive.
Wolf has not. He has only done so 4 of the last 8 years. To me that is an alarming difference.
trs86
11/16/2009-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
Continued below.
stickguy
11/16/2009-11:11am at 11:11 am (UTC -4)
I see the logic, but I am very worried about hi holding up physically, especailly if they are committing 1/2 the off season budget to him.
and at that money + the back, only if it really is a salary dump, with the mets not giving any decent prospects back.
Not trading F Mart + mejia for this guy!
DNDJohan aka kistics
11/16/2009-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Does Omar have a budget this offseason?
njstuckintx
11/16/2009-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
Definitely agree. And with the shape (or lack there of) of the Astros farm system, anyone they trade they’ll be looking for at least 1 major league ready talent player and 1-2 lower ball players (AA).
Let’s stick with the whole Reds/Blue Jays option. Talk of those trades make me happy.
stickguy
11/16/2009-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Also, any time people start talking about the mets and their “awful, killer, terrible” contracts, I have to laugh. Ollie and Castillo are nothing when you look at teams like Toronto, Cubs, Astros, Giants, and a few others.
the mets just have a couple guys on 2 year deals for slightly above market value, who combined make less than Vernon Wells per year.
You can kill Omar for a lot of things, but hamstringing the Mets with albatross contracts isn’t one of them.
trs86
11/16/2009-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. I can’t say either has really stopped them from persuing someone else. That is why I laugh that the Mets need to trade Castillo before bringing in Phillips. Why? At this point they could eat 4 million and easily find a taker for Castillo.
fongy2
11/16/2009-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
Maybe another great Met
FO player position move like Juan Samuel,
Keith Millier,HoJo,
Hundley etc.?
trs86
11/16/2009-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
?
fongy2
11/16/2009-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
I was joking that they’d get Phillips
and stick him in LF.
trs86
11/16/2009-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
Oh? LOL, got it.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
Stick: The problem with the Mets’ model is not that they’ve terribly overpaid anyone. It’s that they’ve been forced to pay for almost everyone.
The Mets don’t really have any effective cheap labor.
trs86
11/16/2009-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
I would consider Reyes, Wright, Tatis, Pagan, Murphy, Santos, Pelfrey, Parnell, Feliciano….
Not as effective as we would like but all guys that until Reyes and Wright start really getting paid were “cheap” labor.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
Wright and Reyes cost $7.5m and $5.5m, respectively, in the 2009 season.
Shane Victorino cost the Phillies $3m and Jayson Werth $2m last year. JA Happ made the minimum.
The other guys you mentioned were bit players. The point is that the Mets don’t have any young players with league minimum or arbitration year type contracts producing effectively.
trs86
11/16/2009-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
They DID, but just like the Phillies will have to do they had to start paying up. But I do agree with your point below. We really needed LF to be taken by Fmart by now.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think its fair to compare F-Mart to a much older Werth or Vicky.
trs86
11/16/2009-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
Neither do I but as I have said for a while the Mets really have put everything into Fmart being able to take an OF slot. Look how many years we have went with a temporary guy in LF to hold it for Fmart.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know what effectively means to you, I guess if compared to Werth and Vicky, they haven’t.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
Are we really going to dispute that the Mets havent produced enough young and inexpensive players from its farm system in several years?
Every team is going to have its share of Bobby Parnells wasting space on its roster. Big deal. The Mets haven’t produced a quality regular since Reyes and Wright.
The jury is still out on Pelfrey but atr this point he’d better hope they dleiberate for at least another season.
trs86
11/16/2009-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
I would not say that about Pelfrey. Even if he is just a #5 then that’s still great value for someone making .5 million.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
This is the first year Pelfrey will make just .5 million.
But given his draft status only achieving 5th starter status = disappointment.
trs86
11/16/2009-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
That’s not fair. Of course if that is all he ever is. But was he a #5 pitcher in 2008?
trs86
11/16/2009-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
Also, as I said that’s still a value as he will not get that much the following year either unless he really becomes a #2 this year.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
If you want to place Pelfrey as a feather in the cap of the Mets’ player development team, then you’re being awfully kind.
Some 500k players you’re happy to accept as 5th starters and role players.
But teams need their highly touted first round draft picks to pan out, especially when they won’t compensate for their draft mistakes by paying over slot to get the best players in subsequent drafts.
trs86
11/16/2009-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
I am not looking for a feather. I am looking for “any young players with league minimum or arbitration year type contracts producing effectively.”
And my point is though he is not living up to expectations, for his salary he will most likely be producing effectively.
trs86
11/16/2009-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
And I would also say that just looking at stats you could also count Pagan’s .306 .350 .487 .837
No we did not exactly produce him, I guess we did a little. But it’s not like the Phillies produced Werth either. And by the way as you know that OPS is better than Vici’s.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
But what if Pagan, like Bourne, reverts to 264 .306 .439 ?
Anyway, Pagan hurt the team as much as he helped it with his utter inability to learn baseball.
re: Pelfrey, great the Mets have a .5 million value at the bottom of the rotation. You know full well my point is that this team does not have any top-end impact players who aren’t getting paid.
Every team has low paid stiffs at the bottom of their rotation, in their bullpens and on the bench. The key is to have them atop or in the middle of your batting order and atop your rotation.
trs86
11/16/2009-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
True about Pagan but what we don’t know is how bad some of these others were in things that do not show up in the stats. That is why I said based on stats.
trs86
11/16/2009-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
Obviously I would like the Mets to have a Werth getting paid nothing. But how much will Werth now get paid? We had those types a few years ago before Reyes and Wright started to really get paid.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-1:15pm at 1:15 pm (UTC -4)
…and none since. 6 years later…
trs86
11/16/2009-1:23pm at 1:23 pm (UTC -4)
Can you not count Maine in the past? Perez in the past? Obviously we did not have ANY last year besides guys like Pagan, it was a lost year.
Look at 2006-2008, we had quite a few of those type values as a hole.
trs86
11/16/2009-1:34pm at 1:34 pm (UTC -4)
And I am not sure you can count Reyes and Wright as 6 years later.
Wright since 2005.
2005 D19.7 paid .3
2006: D16.9 P.4
2007: D34.6 P1.3
2008 D33.3 P 5.3
So I would hardly say that we did not have those type players last year even.
Would I like players other than Wright and Reyes? Sure.
Again, looking at JUST stats.
Pagan was worth 12.6M last year and got paid league min.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-1:43pm at 1:43 pm (UTC -4)
Doesn’t Santos count too?
Millz turned into Church who turned into Frenchy who is arb-eligible.
Frenchy’s my poor man’s Werth (minus the excellent fielding)
trs86
11/16/2009-1:49pm at 1:49 pm (UTC -4)
Santos should count. He was worth 4.5M and got paid league min.
Frenchy should not count as his value was actually negative because of his production in Atlanta.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
FWIW, Francoeur’s total 2009 season is regarded by fangraphs as having a WAR of 0.0 and a dollar value of $200,000. He was actually paid $3.5 mil.
Reasons not to sign him to an extension I suppose.
trs86
11/16/2009-2:04pm at 2:04 pm (UTC -4)
Grave do you see any stats for what he was worth as just a Met? Too risky to base a contract on, just curious.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-6:55pm at 6:55 pm (UTC -4)
The points of Wright’s salaries until now are not the point. The point is that Wright and Reyes came up the Mets have not produced an impact player or a key lineup figure since.
Maine and Perez can’t get credit for a good one year forever. And neither were produced by the Mets anyway.
I will give Omar credit for the wise acquisitions, however.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
And really, if a guy making $7.5m is the best bargain you can come up with…
The bottom line is that this team needs to start producing its own players, rather than buying them all.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
Omar has tried doing that w/ Murphy and Parnell. Prob is you can’t produce if ur trading them away for stars.
trs86
11/16/2009-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
True in that sense. It is very hard in NY to let someone learn on the job. I don’t like Murphy at 1B because we need someone more solid yet perhaps I am wrong and we need to give him that chance. But perhaps I am also wrong and we should give Pagan that same chance. Then, however, there is no improvement on a bad offense.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t disagree.
I hold out hope for Murphy. But Parnell has really never demonstrated an ability to pitch.
trs86
11/16/2009-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
Over a substained period of time I agree. I think he has shown flashes and for a middle reliever is an ok gamble because of his price.
trs86
11/16/2009-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
April May July and September were not BAD months for him. Obviously July was nice with 12 games 10 innings 5 hits, 0 runs and 9 K’s with a WHIP below 1. But he followed it with a terrible August. How much of that was due to switching him to starter I have no idea.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
I was referring more to his less than inspiring minor league record:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=parnel001rob
fongy2
11/16/2009-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
Nothing to add to the above posts.
Like Oswalt,Berkman and Lee BUT
don’t think any are likely Mets
for the various reasons noted above.
Just will add, a jolly good morning to my fellow Met fans on this beautiful November morning!
Heres hoping this spring like weather
continues!
trs86
11/16/2009-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
Spoken like a man who can actually go outside and enjoy the weather.
fongy2
11/16/2009-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
True dat! However also
equals no pay today!
prismo
11/16/2009-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
It will for the next 10ish days. Enjoy this freakishly warm November!
fongy2
11/16/2009-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
Luv it!
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
It’s continuing where I am (about 60 miles N of NYC). The 5 day forecast is sunny with highs in the mid 50s every day!
fongy2
11/16/2009-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
65 and sunny in south central PA!
Hey, I read where the
blognazi bought glasses
and watched the Jets over the weekend.
Just want to add, I
broke down and took my new bride grocery shopping and watched the Steelers this weekend.
Update…….
Thinking about a little veal parm for
lunch.
Okay,okay,
I’ll stop
that now!
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
Moving away from Michael Bourn and Randy Wolf.
So what do we all think of Bill Belichick’s decision to go for 4th and 2 from his own 28 with a 6 point lead and less than 3 minutes to go?
trs86
11/16/2009-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
Creative?
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
I agree. It was creative. I look at it as, even geniuses sometimes make mistakes. It was a bold stroke that to me was too much of a gamble.
I don’t know enough to say whether it was him showing too much confidence in his offense, or not enough in his defense, but it was an incredibly bold gamble that failed to pay off.
IMO he has enough of a track record that it can be written off. I did tune into WEEI Boston for a bit this morning and in the few minutes I was listening I did NOT hear a caller suggesting he be fired.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t tell if it was a great gesture of faith in his defense that they’d stop Peyton from near in or that he didn’t trust them to hold Payton back from the Colts’ 20.
Either way, it made no sense.
Kingman 26
11/16/2009-12:57pm at 12:57 pm (UTC -4)
Insane, ridiculous, and a screaming indictment of what he thinks of his own defense.
One of the biggest head-scratcher moves I can imagine.
Of course, they also probably got robbed on the spot and should have had the first down….
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-1:17pm at 1:17 pm (UTC -4)
I also think Maurice Jones Drew was crazy for not taking the TD against the Jets. I understand the move and it worked… but a lot of crap can happen even on a short field goal attempt. And it’s not as if John Elway was the one who was going to engineer the 30 second drive the other way…
Kingman 26
11/16/2009-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
I completely agree…crazy, risky move.
As for my Dolphins, we were up by 6 with about a minute and a half to go, on about our own 20, and Henne threw an INT!!
We managed to go right downfield and get the winning FG after TB scored, but man, what a moronic play! Give it to Ricky and punt!
trs86
11/16/2009-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Grave where I think we keep butting heads is I think you feel I believe Wolf is a better pitcher than Lackey. Of course he is not at all. My point is and has been that considering his health issues and the market I am more willing to pay Wolf 2/18 and then turn around and sign another guy similar to that for 2/16-18 compared to 5/90 for Lackey. I think we understand each others positions quite clearly now and I will shut up.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
No, that’s not it. I don’t think you think Wolf is a better pitcher than Lackey. I have read your repeated statements of “obviously Lackey is the better pitcher” many times. I may be dense, but I’m not THAT dense.
What I think is, and feel free to waive your vow to shut up and respond if you feel so inclined, Wolf does not provide enough of a combination of performance and health “reasonable certainty” to risk investing in, however small the amount.
I believe strongly, as I have stated exactly that way many times, that the Mets need a high end, solid # 2, second ace-type pitcher, and I just don’t see enough of a chance that Wolf is going to provide that to ask him to do so. If he is signed as an augmentation to someone who is more likely to provide such I welcome him, but as “the” upgrade, or as 1 of a pair of similar less likely to perform at that level upgrades, I don’t want him.
IOW I want Lackey or someone like him. I don’t, instead of Lackey, want “2 Wolves” just because they’d be cheaper. With acquiring 2 wolves the team still reasonably “lacks” the solid # 2 IMO. Lackey and Wolf? Yes. Halladay and Marquis? Yes. Wolf and Marquis? No. Pineiro and Washburn? No. None of those cheaper guys come with the solid high end consistent track record of consistently showing up and consistently performing enough for consideration.
Would any of the above upgrade the Mets rotation? I believe so, yes. But some of them, not enough.
trs86
11/16/2009-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
I think we see each other’s points and will just have to agree to disagree. If I am overpaying for someone I don’t want to do it on Holliday or Lackey and would rather just get those 2 Wolfs for this year and see who becomes available later. I would much rather have Halladay, that is a guy you overpay for and he very well could be available next year as could others I veiw as better than Lackey. The injury concerns just scare me off from 5/90. 4/64 again I am fine. There is something about that extra 30 million.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
Perhaps it can be boiled down to this?
We both agree wanton overpaying of players is a bad idea, and we both agree that occasional overpaying of “the right” player is OK.
Where we disagree is on whether we think Lackey is the right player to overpay for. I do, you don’t.
I think a team like the Yankees, who don’t need him due to their being quite well stocked at the top end of their rotation, would be foolish to overpay for Lackey.
I think a team like the Pirates, years away from viability and therefore and needing much more than just a solid # 2 pitcher to put them over the top, would be foolish to overpay for Lackey.
I think a team like the Mets, that barring horrific injury situations like 2009 turned out to be, a team that annually contends for the post season and lacks something that puts them over the top, that finishes just a wisp out of the playoffs, would be wise to overpay for that something they lack, and I think that thing they lack can be provided by Lackey (and not just because that’s his name
)
trs86
11/16/2009-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with a lot of points. I just don’t think that Lackey by himself makes us competitive NEXT year and I am afraid that if we vastly overpay then we will not be able to get the other things we will need to be competitive. Even with Lackey we will still need offense and will still need another pitcher in my opinion.
And to your point on the Yankees, if the Redsox and Yankees stay out then I think we will both be happy because Lackey will be a Met at 4/64.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-1:54pm at 1:54 pm (UTC -4)
Excellent. Thank you for working with me to our dramatic conclusion.
To slowly pry my mind onto any different conversation I’ve been reading about “run scoring percentage” (the percentage of time a baserunner eventually scores a run) and have found some fun facts.
League average is 31% and last season David Wright tied his career high of 34%. So even as the team overall was way down in run scoring, Wright scored a career high percentage of the time.
Jose Reyes’ career average is 42% but last year when active scored only 28% of the time. Hopefully he will return healthy enough to resume scoring a higher percentage of the time.
Castillo has scored 35% of the time in both his full seasons as a Met.
Beltran’s career average is 37% but last season when active scored only 29% of the time. Like Reyes we must hope he can get closer to his career number.
Murphy scored 30% of the time, 1 point below league average. Something to watch as his career unfolds.
Santos scored a woeful 25% of the time.
Francoeur scored 32% of the time as a Met, exactly his career average and 1 point higher than he did as a Brave in 2009.
What does it all mean? I have no idea.
trs86
11/16/2009-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting as I would also like to see (please don’t do this unless you are bored because I still don’t know what it would mean) what the league averages were based on spot in lineup and position.
I would think a catcher batting 7-8th does not have a great chance of scoring.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-2:05pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not sure if anyone has it broken down like that but after lunch I’m not busy so I’ll see what I can find and put it in a fresh comment below.
stickguy
11/16/2009-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
Hebs, not that I have an agenda or anything, but I blame reyes being stuck at 28% on castillo batting behind him. His utter lack of getting a hit that can score a runner from first 9hell, from 2nd) for one thing.
also, wasting so many ABs sacrificing, when the stats show you have a lower probability of scoring the runner.
Not that I have an agenda or anything.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
I appreciate that you have a sense of humor about being pigeonholed as the “Castillo hater.”
FWIW, you have demonstrated to me that while you don’t necessarily like the guy, your “agenda” in moving him is at least 50% if not more motivated by a desire to improve the club and not simply a dislike of Castillo.
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-6:59pm at 6:59 pm (UTC -4)
Equally as maddening as Castillo’s absurd bunting (especially with a runner on second and Castillo batting lefthanded) is the manager permitting to get away with it/permitting of it.
trs86
11/16/2009-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
Hey guys, question. What type of package would it take to get Martin from the Dodgers if we also took Pierre?
stickguy
11/16/2009-2:41pm at 2:41 pm (UTC -4)
don’t know, but I would love to have him. Martin that is. I want no part of Pierre.
trs86
11/16/2009-2:10pm at 2:10 pm (UTC -4)
Wanny (as you are usually good at this), and anyone else.
Cerrone basically narrowed down the Halladay race to Mets and Yankees and thoughts were the Yankees would not want to go 6 years.
Can you guys think about who actually may be in the race IF Halladay is going to force an extension?
Heyman basically eliminated Texas and Phillies.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-2:38pm at 2:38 pm (UTC -4)
I thought I read somewhere that Halladay’s no trade clause is specific to AL & NL West, but I can’t find that now so I question whether that’s true or not.
If for the sake of argument it’s not true, I would put forth both LA teams. The Angels if they lose Lackey and the Dodgers whose GM said in an interview I was listening to live a few weeks ago that his # 1 need this off season is a # 1 starting pitcher. I submit them knowing full well both have very good reasons NOT to do it (Angels seem good enough to re-tool & contend w/o him, Dodgers have the ownership divorce issue).
FWIW in searching for the specifics of the NTC I read an interview with Mike Scioscia who says “Tony (their GM) has talked to a lot of clubs, and he’s talked to Toronto. Obviously Halladay is a name that piques the interest of everybody in baseball.”
If Texas and Philly are considered eliminated, depending on how the Red Sox view their ability to compete in their division maybe them.
I’m not sure. To me the obvious destination is the Dodgers BUT they have the ownership problem and that possible NTC permutation works against them if it’s true. Unless I’m simply forgetting someone, any other club not already mentioned would be a surprise.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
Add to that the fact that the Dodgers are a West Coast team and don’t train in Florida, both requirements as layed out by MC.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-2:51pm at 2:51 pm (UTC -4)
OK. Sorry.
I should qualify my answer to every question that pertains to anything that MC ever does that I rarely ever visit his blog anymore so I will not be up on the specifics of his statements.
Then you should immediately remove from my list below anyone who doesn’t meet those qualifications.
stickguy
11/16/2009-2:47pm at 2:47 pm (UTC -4)
If MC says it is true, then it must be so!
The phillies are actually an interesting option, if he didn’t require the huge extension (and no one is really sure he will demand one). Talk about a team loaded to win now!
anyway, the other teams I could see would be LAA (maybe). Can’t think of any other obvious choices, unless the red sox want in.
a true dark horse like the Nats looking for credibility? Not that he likely wants to go there. The Braves if they could unload Lowe?
IMO, I hope the mets don’t get involved. To many prospects (likely) and too much commitment.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
As I re-read that Milwaukee leaps to mind. IIRC they offered quite a lot of money to Sabathia that they still haven’t spent, and they’ve shown the willingness to make bold trades for big time pitchers. And for the most part their pitching is just sad. They could sure use him.
So for the sake of argument/discussion:
Mets
Yanks
Angels
Dodgers
Red Sox
Rangers (eliminated?)
Phillies (eliminated?)
Brewers
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-2:57pm at 2:57 pm (UTC -4)
Given the new (to me) info about teams that don’t train in FL being off limits we can cross off the Brewers who train in AZ.
For easy reference below is a list of all teams that train in FL in 2010 and don’t play in a Pacific Ocean state:
Rays
Yankees
Pirates
Twins
Red Sox
Tigers
Astros
Braves
Nationals
Mets
Marlins
Cardinals
Orioles
(I took the liberty of eliminating the Phillies per MC’s word to your mother)
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-3:03pm at 3:03 pm (UTC -4)
beat me to it
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-2:54pm at 2:54 pm (UTC -4)
Doc’s fam lives in a Tampa suburb. Port St. Lucie is 3 hours away on the other side of the state.
The Yankees train in Tampa, we’re screwed.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
If you take Heyman’s assertion that “Halladay wants to sign his next long-term contract with a team that trains in Florida and plays on the East Coast, noting, ‘The list I heard last summer, for him, did not include the two Los Angeles teams.’
GCL teams:
Yanks
Phils
Jays
Pirates
Braves
Marlins
Nats
Cards
Mets
Astros
Twins
Orioles
Red Sox
Rays
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-3:18pm at 3:18 pm (UTC -4)
Let’s eliminate some and see if we agree on them.
Jays – since they’re his current team.
Phils – since MC says so.
Pirates – just because they’re the Pirates.
Every remaining club has some, however remote, capacity to sign a player to a big contract. But will they? In descending order my thoughts:
Braves – I think they have the wherewithal but not the need. They have a nice array of pitching on hand to serve them well enough that they are rumored to be unloading some.
Marlins – I can’t see that they have the money right now but they are about to move into a new stadium they may want to make a splash. They always seem to have talent to trade.
Nats – Seem to have a quantity of young pitching and be far enough away from contending that it would be a bad use of resources to both trade for and pay Halladay.
Cards – They always seem to do something unexpected so why not? You guys tell me.
Mets – I think they need him and could afford him. Do they want him and can they make it happen?
Astros – Too many fat contracts already and not enough production, I’d be very surprised if they took the plunge.
Twins – With Mauer soon to be a FA even though they are moving into a new stadium I doubt they’d go for Halladay. It’s just not “Twinny” to do so.
Orioles – They cry out for pitching. I keep hearing that their owner is rich but I rarely see him actually put it into action. Perhaps they have enough young cheap talent that Halladay wouldn’t kill their bottom line.
Red Sox – Depending on how their ongoing negotiations with Beckett unfold I could see them doing it, in that division.
Rays – I just don’t think so unless there is a new stadium in the offing that I’m not aware of.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
In summary, I’ve left myself with the following to consider:
Marlins
Cards
Mets
Orioles
Red Sox
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
then add Doc’s NTC and prob laughing at the thought of pitching for the Marlins (though they’ll be contending some time soon) or Orioles, so:
Cards
Mets
Red Sox
If you want to delve further, with Carpenter and Wainwright, the Cards don’t need Doc they need Holliday, so:
Mets
Red Sox
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-3:39pm at 3:39 pm (UTC -4)
I think we have our winners!
Although if we are assigning to him such a strong desire to pitch in FL I wouldn’t just toss aside the Marlins, who keep pitching there even after spring training and will soon have a retractable roof to foil the endless rain delays.
Also since I don’t read MC I’m left to wonder, why are the Yankees eliminated? I mean I know it seems like too much but aren’t they already too much and when has that stopped them before?
stickguy
11/16/2009-3:57pm at 3:57 pm (UTC -4)
I actualy think the yankees would go for lackey, since it is only money. I don’t really think they have the haul of prospects the Jays would require to move them to the evil empire. Plus, they have a lot of old guys to replace soon!
I still would go for lackey for less $ and no prospects instead of halladay, and/or a reds salary dump.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-4:01pm at 4:01 pm (UTC -4)
there’s a debate I’d like to see in a new post
stickguy
11/16/2009-4:18pm at 4:18 pm (UTC -4)
If you build it, he will come.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-3:45pm at 3:45 pm (UTC -4)
they shouldn’t be except for not wanting to go 6 years, so:
Yanks
Red Sox
Mets
Great, Santana Gate all over again!
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-3:50pm at 3:50 pm (UTC -4)
It illuminates why the rest of the baseball world hates those 3 teams and be extension their fans so much.
When I read the comments at MLBTR I never see more disdain than I do for these 3 teams and their fans.
People just don’t hate on the Angels that way and they’ve been in the playoffs 6 of the last 8 years! I guess they do it the “right” way?
stickguy
11/16/2009-3:58pm at 3:58 pm (UTC -4)
cub fans get a lot of grief too (along with the team)
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
BTW, MC’s comment filtration system is doing wonders for him.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
After our nice chat with him here earlier this year I was left with the impression that he just wants people to read what he has to say, not comment on it. So if I understand correctly what he wanted, he got it.
One thing I think I’ve learned since the defection is that he is for the most part simply an compiler, ala MLBTR, of things other people are saying elsewhere. I’ve learned to just go to those places instead. I am perfectly capable of determining whether Metstradamus or the Daily News has an article of interest to me on my own. Without the ability to congregate and debate what has been said at those various places, I have no need to go there.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-3:55pm at 3:55 pm (UTC -4)
we do some of that, but we’re more of the let’s start a discussion kind
wannybackstra
11/16/2009-7:19pm at 7:19 pm (UTC -4)
FWIW, I know JP Ricciardi would not permit the acquiring team to have a negotiation period with Halladay prior to the execution of the trade. I do not know if Alex Anthopolous will have a similar policy.
trs86
11/17/2009-7:19am at 7:19 am (UTC -4)
I think even JP would have had to back down on that this year as he would not have gotten much of anything in return OR Halladay could just say nah.
As to our 2 teams IF all that is true then I think it’s the Mets. I think the Redsox are still looking for a real 1B and will spend those prospects on Agonz.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
I haven’t found anything yet on RS% by batting order position, but I have found that Angel Berroa scored an astounding 57% of the time and that of all Mets who had at least 300 plate appearances, Angel Pagan led the team with a RS% of 39%.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-3:50pm at 3:50 pm (UTC -4)
11 triples in 343 AB’s would do that. Seriously, Pagan had a great year, except for fielding and baserunning
stickguy
11/16/2009-4:00pm at 4:00 pm (UTC -4)
isn’t that what the cracker jack coaching staff is for? Damn, I miss Razor already.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-4:07pm at 4:07 pm (UTC -4)
considering Sandy and Razor aren’t coming back, I’d say the Mets noticed where the flaws were
trs86
11/17/2009-7:20am at 7:20 am (UTC -4)
I think his fielding gets a bad rap and I also am curious how much better our baserunning will be when the guys don’t think they have to do it all by themselves because we are that bad.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-3:46pm at 3:46 pm (UTC -4)
More fun with runs scored:
The Mets had to score at least 6 runs as a team to have a winning record.
Runs Scored Distribution
Runs Games Wins Loss W-L%
+—-+—–+—-+—-+—–+
0 11 0 11 .000
1 19 3 16 .158
2 21 2 19 .095
3 22 7 15 .318
4 23 10 13 .435
5 16 8 8 .500
6 16 11 5 .688
7 14 11 3 .786
8 8 6 2 .750
9 7 7 0 1.000
10 4 4 0 1.000
11 1 1 0 1.000
+—-+—–+—-+—-+—–+
and to compare and contrast below are runs allowed:
Runs Allowed Distribution
Runs Games Wins Loss W-L%
+—-+—–+—-+—-+—–+
0 12 12 0 1.000
1 12 11 1 .917
2 20 14 6 .700
3 21 11 10 .524
4 22 12 10 .545
5 19 3 16 .158
6 18 3 15 .167
7 10 2 8 .200
8 9 1 8 .111
9 5 1 4 .200
10 3 0 3 .000
11 5 0 5 .000
12 3 0 3 .000
13 1 0 1 .000
15 2 0 2 .000
+—-+—–+—-+—-+—–+
Kingman 26
11/16/2009-3:54pm at 3:54 pm (UTC -4)
Wow, this IS fun w/runs scored–thanks for this!
The second table especially shows how absolutely key preventing that 5th run is.
Damn, you and Case have been really spoiling us lately with AMAZING numbers crunching!
Thank you both!!
stickguy
11/16/2009-4:01pm at 4:01 pm (UTC -4)
to me, it points out the need to improve the overall defense, and stop giving away all those extra, back breaking runs.
Kingman 26
11/16/2009-4:14pm at 4:14 pm (UTC -4)
SO correct, and precisely why I went on and on and on about last year’s incessant sloppiness.
And of course, every guy thrown out at 2nd, 3rd, and home was another potential loss.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-3:59pm at 3:59 pm (UTC -4)
am I reading this correctly?
Mets won 23 games and lost only 1 game where they allowed 1 run or less?
I think that 1 loss was J. Johnson v. J. Santana
Kingman 26
11/16/2009-4:00pm at 4:00 pm (UTC -4)
I think you are correctamundo on both counts.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-4:07pm at 4:07 pm (UTC -4)
Confirming I can’t find RS% data by batting order. I can only find it for whole teams or individual players.
The NL leaders (at least 300 PA) were Wily Taveras and Emilio Bonifacio who both scored 47% of the time.
Spilborghs, Hairston, Guzman – 42%
JRoll, K. Johnson, C. Gonzalez – 41%
FLewis, Bourn – 40%
joining our Pagan at 39% were Victorino, E. Velez, Schumaker, Rasmus, Fowler and E. Cabrera.
That’s 3 Rockies, 2 Phils, 2 Cards, 2 Giants, 1 1/2 Reds (and half a Yankee), a Marlin, a Met, a Brave, an Astro, a Padre and a Nat.
Again, what it means I don’t know but there it is.
CaseStreet
11/16/2009-4:17pm at 4:17 pm (UTC -4)
A healthy combo of Reyes and Pagan could do some damage on the basepaths
prismo
11/16/2009-5:45pm at 5:45 pm (UTC -4)
You’re right! Pagan on the basepaths is a complete trainwreck.
Kingman 26
11/16/2009-6:08pm at 6:08 pm (UTC -4)
Actually, Pagan pretty much anywhere on the field outside the friendly confines of the batter’s box has peril written all over it….
prismo
11/16/2009-6:19pm at 6:19 pm (UTC -4)
You know, to some extent, Pagan is basically an offensive Oliver Perez. All talent, no brains.
Kingman 26
11/16/2009-6:29pm at 6:29 pm (UTC -4)
That is a pretty darn good analogy.
Not sure if you are old enough to really remember Sid Fernandez, but he was similar. Definitely a much better career than Ollie has had thus far, but he seemed like such a bonehead. He had the most amazing stuff and could be unhittable for 5 innings, then lose focus for a minute and give up a few quick runs.
If Sid had been really smart, and somewhat thinner, he could have been really amazing.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-7:08pm at 7:08 pm (UTC -4)
I understand why this comparison would be made, but I want to reiterate what I consider the most important thing you say: Sid had a much better career than Ollie so far.
Kong I know you weren’t maligning Sid so I’m not picking on you, I’m just taking the opportunity to praise Sid.
SID career
BB/9 3.4
K/9 8.4
K/BB 2.44
ERA 3.36
WHIP 1.144
OLLIE career
BB/9 5.0
K/9 9.2
K/BB 1.86
ERA 4.54
WHIP 1.456
Ollie pitched most of this season at age 27 and has started 188 games and is 58-64, 4.54 ERA & 1.456 WHIP for his career.
When Sid was 27, he had started 193 games and was 78-59, 3.26 ERA & 1.142 WHIP.
We can only hope that Ollie becomes more like Sid.
Kingman 26
11/16/2009-7:33pm at 7:33 pm (UTC -4)
No problem Grave, and I sure was not criticizing Sid–he was one of my very favorite Mets from that era….maybe this was not the best comparison…but sometimes it seemed to me that Sid had the raw talent to be one of the best in the game, but his weight and the contents of his head kept him from being as good as he could be.
I have to think his weight was the primary culprit for his career basically being over at age 30.
But he was very, very good, and one of the central keys to the 86 team, without a shred of a doubt. His 2+ innings in Game 7 shall never be forgotten.
GravediggerHebner
11/16/2009-7:39pm at 7:39 pm (UTC -4)
I think it was a good comparison in that they were both eccentric left handers of whom it can be said they didn’t take full advantage of their gift for pitching due at least in part to what is perceived from outside as questionable dedication.
I just didn’t want a casual reader to think they were being compared by their results.
trs86
11/17/2009-7:24am at 7:24 am (UTC -4)
I still don’t think we are giving Pagan enough of a chance. We are willing to forgive Beltran for his running mistakes, Wright for his hitting issues, Krod for his disasterous 2nd half, Murphy’s hitting, running and fielding mistakes because he will get better but with Pagan there is no hope. The kid hit very well this year and unless he can be traded for a starter may deserve the chance to earn a spot himself.
Kingman 26
11/17/2009-9:56am at 9:56 am (UTC -4)
This is really a bit of a stretch….all of the players you name except for Murphy have a long track record of outstanding play. Pagan doesn’t.
trs86
11/17/2009-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
Right but we are jumping on Pagan for mental errors, the same ones that all of those guys made. The guy out hit most of the team, including Murphy. I am just saying we need to give the guy a chance just like we are Murphy.
CaseStreet
11/17/2009-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
I’d be in agreement with you that Pagan def deserved a shot at the starting position after his extraordinary performance last year (minus the mental gaffs). However, after all of last year’s injuries and Pagan’s track record of injuries, I couldn’t be 100% comfortable with Pagan as the everyday OFer.
I’d really like to see him turn into our Vicky (minus the Marsian head) and possibly get a starting role in the future. Until then I’m glad to have him as our Juan Pierre.
trs86
11/17/2009-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, that being said if another team values him as a cheap starting OF and will give us a good return, ship him out.