Anubis prepares to guide the Mets into post-power afterlife
In 2009 as we all know the Mets were last in MLB in HR, the only team with fewer than 100, hitting 95.
As a team they got 11 HR overall from 3B, 3 from SS, 17 from CF and 13 from RF. The in house options they have on hand right now at those positions for their careers average 25 (Wright), 14 (Reyes), 26 (Beltran) and 18 (Francoeur) HR per season.
Those are not outliers, those are career averages. So it doesn’t seem unreasonable to expect average output from those guys. If you get that, the Mets have 39 more HR as a team than last year.
The team got 12 HR from C last year. 38 Major League catchers hit 6 or more HR last season, surely the Mets can find two guys to put behind the plate to replicate the 12 HR of 2009. 1B provided 16 HR last year. Murphy hit 12 last year, is asking 16 of him too much? I don’t think so. The Mets got 3 HR from 2B last year, so to be fair we probably need to subtract 2 if Castillo is out there everyday. Either Castillo or whoever spells him on a day off will probably hit 1.
Apparently that will be "good guy" Alex Cora, shown here in his 2008 mugshot for DUI probation violation
So that’s a 37 HR improvement over 2009 without considering LF (or a back up at any of the other positions hitting a HR while spelling someone). That would put the Mets at a total of 132 HR. Still fewer than any 2009 playoff team. The Dodgers had the fewest HR of any playoff team with 145. National League team average was 155.
So without a LF, the Mets would be 13 HR short of the lowest HR hitting 2009 playoff team, and 23 short of league average. For 2008, National League average was 163, and the only playoff team lower was again the Dodgers at 137. For 2007, the NL average was 169, and the only playoff team lower than average was the Cubs with 151.
Over the last 3 seasons, the National League average for team HR was 162 and the average total HR for the teams with the least HR to make the playoffs was 144.
Even Tommy Lasorda knows the Dodgers were just powerful enough to lose to the Phillies
To make themselves a comparable team to league average for the last 3 years, the Mets need to add 30 HR. To make themselves comparable to the average HR output of the lowest HR hitting team to make the playoffs the last 3 years, they need to add 12 HR. The average of those two figures is 21. Below is an alphabetical list of the available FA OF who have averaged 21 HR for the last 3 years:
- Jason Bay – 29
- Mike Cameron – 23
- Jermaine Dye – 30
- Vladimir Guerrero – 23
- Matt Holliday – 28
- Hideki Matsui – 21
Garret Anderson and Johnny Damon fell just short at 19 and 18 respectively. To me Cameron really stands out as the right combination of power, defense and reasonable contract. Will he come to Queens to play LF? That remains to be seen.
What I take from this exercise is this. The choices are not many, and are not good. All any of these guys would do was bring the Mets closer to league average HR output, and put them roughly on par with the least powerful NL playoff teams of the last few years. That is without any defensive consideration at all.
The more I try to quickly manufacture the 2010 Mets into a playoff team, the more I think the team needs to re-think any perceived need for “a slugging LF,” and re-invent itself over the course of the next few years as a team built on pitching, speed and defense. To compete with the power big boys, the Mets will need more home runs from a number of positions, not just LF. Any free agent power grab the Mets make for LF for 2010 is likely to be a stop gap at best, and a detriment to future finances and player moves at worst.
I say pass on all these guys, concentrate on upgrading the pitching staff and overall defense, and get better for the long haul.
10 comments
oleosmirf
11/30/2009-3:32pm at 3:32 pm (UTC -4)
you also have to factor in that all of those HR totals will decrease here as a Met…
Kingman 26
11/30/2009-3:41pm at 3:41 pm (UTC -4)
“I say pass on all these guys, concentrate on upgrading the pitching staff and overall defense, and get better for the long haul.”
I completely agree except for Cameron. He provides not just power, but speed and defense as well. He is very well-liked and respected, on and off the field, and could very possibly be had for a very reasonable 1 or 2 year deal.
I could not agree more on Bay/Dye/Holliday/Guerrero/Matsui.
GravediggerHebner
11/30/2009-10:00pm at 10:00 pm (UTC -4)
I hear you. Of those guys, Cameron is the most palatable one to me. I just strongly doubt (personally, I have no insider knowledge) that he’s going to come here to play a corner OF spot. I wrote the line you quote with that thought in mind.
wannybackstra
11/30/2009-4:35pm at 4:35 pm (UTC -4)
Perhaps this would be good enough?
According to MLBTR the Mets are discussing a backup role with Henry Blanco while Bengie Molina continues to be the Mets top choice for starting catcher per Rosenthal. Why Blanco when Santos is perfectly suited to backup catcher? Is Blanco a consideration to back up Santos is Molina is unattainable (and hopefully he is)?
wannybackstra
11/30/2009-4:37pm at 4:37 pm (UTC -4)
And I wholeheartedly agree with this post that spending gobs of money on questionably valued LFers is not a wise move for the long-term.
Grave makes a good point that there was a lot of power on the Mets DL last season.
CaseStreet
11/30/2009-10:11pm at 10:11 pm (UTC -4)
Awesome job with this research grave.
Seems like Cameron and lackey should start searching for a house in ny.
I’d also like to add laroche’s 26 HR career avg.
stickguy
11/30/2009-11:27pm at 11:27 pm (UTC -4)
the more the off season unfolds, cameron is really looking like a shrewd option if he can be had for 2 years max, at reasonable money. If he is, he could always be moved if you come up with a better option (to a team needing a CF).
The other spot prime for an upgrade? 2B. If they can (please, santa?) move castillo, and end up with Lopez or Philips (please again?), that’s likely your missing HRs.
LF for the Mets was actually one of the better positions for HRs on the Mets though last year, wasn’t it? I can’t figure out your math, but you seem to have built in the same # from LF, but also are counting the LF FAs as additions? Or maybe I missed that.
Sheff, evans, Tatis, and whoever else played LF must have pushed 20 combined.
GravediggerHebner
11/30/2009-11:55pm at 11:55 pm (UTC -4)
Well I’m done smacking myself on the forehead. Nice catch, Stick. I failed to note the number of HR the Mets got last year from LF.
Unfortunately, it’s less than you think, it’s 12.
Also unfortunately, all my math regarding the perceived increase a new LF would provide was based on an upgrade from 0. Now that it’s an upgrade from 12, it’s worth even less to the overall total production. (30 hypothetical 2010 HR from Holliday over 0 is an increase of 30, 30 HR from Holliday over the 12 LF HR from last year is an increase of 18).
So when I said the Mets needed to add 30 HR to get to league average, or 12 to get to the lowest average number of HR by a playoff team, in fact they need to add 42 to get to league average, or 24 to get to the lowest average number of HR by a playoff team, because the 12 they got from LF aren’t being “added on to,” they’re being replaced.
When I said the Mets, by virtue of returning injured players, would have 37 more HR, I was adding the difference between the average production of those injured players and last years totals (for example, I suggest Beltran would hit 26, when last year CF provided 17, so the increase from CF would be 9). But there is no injured LF returning, and I failed to subtract the 12 HR that came from that position in 2009 from my base number of 95.
Thank you for noting that glaring mistake, but sadly the power prognostication just got much worse.
GravediggerHebner
12/1/2009-12:12am at 12:12 am (UTC -4)
In case it helps any discussion somehow (or helps point out where else I’ve made errors) here is the Mets 2009 HR production broken down by position:
C – 12
1B – 16
2B – 3
3B – 11
SS – 3
LF – 12
CF – 17
RF – 13
DH – 3
PH – 5
Total – 95
trs86
12/1/2009-7:34am at 7:34 am (UTC -4)
C not going to improve
1B if it’s Murphy will stay the same
2B will stay the same with Castillo maybe less
3B have to expect maybe 10 more
SS have to expect 10 more
LF ?
CF have to expect 10 more
RF maybe 5 more
DH? Who knows
PH? Who knows.
So by my count we have about 35 more HR not counting an upgrade in LF. That leaves us at 130 and still 15 behind the Dodgers. Problem is we are not the Dodgers and the Dodgers still have Manny and some other feared hitters. I think the biggest think our lineup is missing right now is that feared hitter. Beltran, Wright, Reyes are all good hitters but they are not feared. Delgado on a bad year was still feared because pitchers in the back of their mind new that he would knock a mistake out. I want pitching but I am terrified of what this team will do with Murphy at 1B, Castillo at 2B, Scrub in LF and Santos at Catcher.