Ken Rosenthal is reporting multiple teams are interested in Angel Pagan (he named the Royals and Brewers as 2 such teams) earlier this winter Corey Hart for Pagan was floated. Would you trade Pagan and what would you want in return? Personally I’d try and pair Pagan with some B level prospects and try and bring back Gordon or Hochevar or both.
Dec 02
Could Pagan be on the move?
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152 comments
wannybackstra
12/2/2009-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
I’d deal Pagan in a heartbeat unless there was some evidence that his brain would somehow catch up to his physical gifts.
Based on his minor league track record and his limited major league experience, I think he played well above his head last season. Strike while the iron’s hot.
dirtysanchez
12/2/2009-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
Id be ok with sullivan for the 4th outfielder spot
fongy2
12/2/2009-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
I’d have no problem moving Pagan
BUT I’d be totally shocked if he
brought back ANY of the names you
mentioned. All were legit big time prospects (especially Gordon) and
all have better MLB careers.
Additionaly, to be real all project
to being able to provide more to a
team than Pagan, who’s maybe a nice 4th OFer on a winning team. Maybe.
Kingman 26
12/2/2009-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
Agree with every last word my friend!
metro
12/2/2009-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
These other teams likely view Pagan as more than a 4th OF. The Royals specifically have no CF, the Brewers have Carlos Gomez. Hochevar has been truly AWFUL for the Royals (6.55 era this year) and is no longer that young (26 years old) but more importantly there has been talk of them “giving up” on him.
fongy2
12/2/2009-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
Understood and if they
wanted to move him for Pagan, I say yes
w/o a second thought.
Young, hard thrower,hasn’t matured
but clearly worth a shot.I’d think they’d
have second thoughts about giving up on him too fast as it was
only 2 or 3 yrs ago
they shopped Greinke
who wasn’t living up to billing at the time. I read the Braves turned down Greinke for Frenchy
straight up. Think the Bravos want that one back?
b/t/w, as I didn’t post in the Billy Wags thread….
They signed him pretty quickly!
No? Seems like they couldn’t wait to give
up their pick for him.
metro
12/2/2009-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
PS Corey Hart has been a terrible MLB player for the past 2 seasons and will make around 4 million in 2010. Not exactly a “steal” for the Mets should they get him. Hart’s entire value is based on his strong 2007 season. The last 2 years .759 OPS and .753 OPS would rank him amongst the worst corner OF in baseball both years ESPECIALLY at 4 million bucks.
Kingman 26
12/2/2009-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
Hart did not play a full season in 2009.
In 2008, while having a horrid OBP, he hit 45 2B, 20 HR, drove in 91, and stole 23 bases.
How can someone like this be among the worst in baseball??
metro
12/2/2009-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
First of all he doesn’t walk AT ALL so his OBP the last 2 years was .300 and .335 which is Jeff Francouer territory. Second he had 412 ab’s in 2009 (certainly enough to judge him) and over the past 1000+ ab’s he has averaged 16 homers and 35 walks to go with 201 k’s. Lastly in terms of OPS his .753 would have ranked him 17th out of 19 eligible RF had he had 30 more ab’s and qualified and his .759 in 2008 he ranked 13/18th. So 13/18 in 2008 and 17/19 in 2009 in conjunction with 4+ million absolutely make him one of the worst RF in baseball over the past 2 seasons. There is no stat that will tell you otherwise.
fongy2
12/2/2009-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
I don’t know about horrid, seems a little
strong.
I also think of
Hart as a Frenchy type so
while I’m not ripped off on him, I’d take him a a second for Pagan whos
clearly an inferior player.
metro
12/2/2009-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
Frenchy and Hart would give the Mets the #1 and #2 lowest OBP in terms of corner OF in baseball, considering it’s unlikely our catcher is going to be a high OBP guy (Molina for instance had a .285 OBP which ranked last in baseball amongst qualified catchers) and are unlikely to have a “great” 1b this would potentially be a recipe for an epic disaster if Hart didn’t bounce back.
Kingman 26
12/2/2009-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
Yes, note that I said He had “a horrid OBP”.
There are other stats in baseball.
And he missed over 1/4 of the season last year. Perhaps this had something to do with the poor numbers?
metro
12/2/2009-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
Yeah that explains his terrible 2008. he ended up with 472 ab’s, certainly enough to fully judge him. You make it sound like he played 50 games. 472 ab’s is 100% enough of a sample size (especially following 612 terrible ones in 2008) to make a judgement.
metro
12/2/2009-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
If Hart didn’t bounce back the Mets would have 2 of the worst corner OF in terms of OPS in baseball. If Hart worth the gamble? Debatable but I see no reason that it would “shock” anyone to get Hart at his $$ for Angel Pagan.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/2/2009-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
But Hart was traded to the Twins. He is back on the block?
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
That was SS J.J. Hardy for Gomez, not OF Corey Hart.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/2/2009-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
Oh.. duh!
fongy2
12/2/2009-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Not Hart…JJ Hardy the SS.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
I’m hoping Pagan can be traded for something, I only see him helping the Mets in a very limited role. I believe he played out of his mind (in so many ways) last season and if the Mets can get anything remotely useful for him, they should.
I don’t see what use Hart has for the Mets, unless they’re trading Francoeur or settling really low on a Francoeur/Hart corner OF tandem.
I don’t know quite how valid this comparison is, but the Mets last season traded a mildly useful back up player for a former prospect starting pitcher in the Castro/Broadway deal. In that context, a Pagan/Hochevar deal sounds fine to me.
fongy2
12/2/2009-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
Hochevar through has much better stuff than Broadway.
Not as many stores but better
stuff.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
Fair point in comparing Broadway and Hochevar.
However, above you compared Hochevar to Greinke and I think that’s pretty specious. As you note, that was “2-3 years ago” when Greinke was 22 years old. He and Hochevar are the same age, so I don’t think comparing giving up on Greinke at 22 and Hochevar at 25 is valid.
fongy2
12/2/2009-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
Understood,my point was more that the Royals hadn’t
figured out what to do with
Greinke who wasn’t initially great as a starter in his
first couple of yrs and had become pretty frustrated with him.
He also did however have some emotional probs which he
seemed to get over.I also read where they
backed Greinke off from throwing 5 or 6
diff types of pitches and had him focus
on throwing his
three best/basic ones
which obviously has helped.
b/t/w, I know it sounds funny
to post BUT if
we end up with Guillen, I want the annual
Edgar Cayce award as I rarely remember
my dreams BUT I
had one lastnight where
I was in either a Best-
Buy or Walmart
Christmas shopping w/my
new bride and
was in the electronics section looking
at TVs when on
ESPN along the bottom crawl I
read”The Mets
acquire Jose Guillen from the Royals for
Luis Castillo”
Now I don’t know what this
means,just thought I’d share it.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
That dream story is hilarious!
Now that it’s in writing we can refer back to it here when it happens.
That really did make me laugh out loud, thanks for sharing!
As far as Greinke goes, I think given his youth, talent and personal issues he’s a fairly unique case and ultimately hard to compare to anyone.
fongy2
12/2/2009-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
I don’t disagree. Maybe I reached with that one.
metro
12/2/2009-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Corey Hart’s rankings amongst RF in MLB
2008-
BA- 14/18
2b- 2/18
HR- 11/18
OBP- 17/18
OPS- 13/18
HR- 13/18
BB- 17/18
K’s- 9/18
2009- (only going with percentage’s here because he missed being eligible by 30 ab’s)
BA- 17/19
OBP- 16/19
OPS- 17/19
fongy2
12/2/2009-11:20am at 11:20 am (UTC -4)
So, Metro…you’re sayin’
you wouldn’t trade him for the great Angel Anthony Pagan?
metro
12/2/2009-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
I’m saying if the Mets don’t have much money to spend that spending 4 million on Hart and 4 million on Frenchy and 2 million on Cora seems like a pretty idiotic way to construct a team. You want to “gamble” on a player bouncing back that’s fine but they “gambled” last year that Church and Murphy would both be very good and they weren’t. Frenchy alone is a cause for concern when he really was AWFUL for 1.5 years before coming here. I’m not comfortable “gambling” on BOTH corner OF especially with the state of the pitching staff where we are hoping for 3 such “bounce backs” in Maine, Perez and Pelfrey.
fongy2
12/2/2009-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
My friend, I agree. I think I was at the top of the Church&Murphy
aren’t going to work as our corner OFers gang. Also,I’m
in no way advocating to trade for Hart
BUT you said..
for Pagan. Hart
is clearly a better player than Angel Pagan.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
So basically he’s a 1-dimensional doubles machine.
The positive spin would be that doubles play well in Citi Field.
This is strictly a personal bias on my part, but I’ve hated Corey Hart since the National League lost yet another All-Star game as the winning run scored while Hart 7-bounced a lame throw in from shallow RF to the plate as the AL All-Stars celebrated.
And I want absolutely nothing to do with the constant “Sunglasses At Night” references.
metro
12/2/2009-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
I was actually arguing with someone else over Hart (in this case his positives) and he cited Hart had a terrible arm all based on that throw lol
Kingman 26
12/2/2009-11:25am at 11:25 am (UTC -4)
And of course you leave out RBI and SB, as they might not support your case. There is no way he is among the very worst with his 2B, HR, RBI, and SB production.
Do you think you use enough unnecessary apostrophes? They don’t help you case.
prismo
12/2/2009-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
Back down Fido, back down! (though I agree)
Kingman 26
12/2/2009-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, you are right.
Sorry.
Thanks for the wakeup call.
Time to find something else to do!
metro
12/2/2009-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
RBI? Over the last 2 years he ranked 9th in RBI in RF and had 48 in 115 games in 2009, so he was on pace for about 70 which would have ranked him near the bottom of the league in 2009. SB’s he ranked 11th in 2009 and 23rd in 2008. If you think the fact he can steal 23/30 bases raises his value more then his .300 OBP lowers it good for you,.
fongy2
12/2/2009-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
I dont think anyone WANTS
Hart…But for
Angel Pagan?
What exactly do you think Pagan is???
He’s a backup OFer on a good team. What would be the loss?
metro
12/2/2009-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
He’s a 4th OF. I don’t want Angel Pagan getting 500 ab’s and I don’t want Corey Hart making 4 million (4 million we can’t spend on someone else) getting 500 ab’s either with Frenchy as the RF.
metro
12/2/2009-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Frenchy+Hart+ Molina (or any of the catchers we are hearing, Barajas etc) would be an AWFUL trio to have in one lineup. You get 27 outs the idea is to make use of them. These guys are 3 of the worst “out wasters” in baseball and a good lineup can’t carry 3 of them (and 4 if they carry Murphy)
trs86
12/2/2009-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Why is it necessary to stretch the truth for the sake of the argument. Hart is NOT a .300 OBP guy. He is bad but not that bad. He was in 2008 but he was 2006, 2007, 2009. While he was still not good, I would bet he is say uh… a .330′s OBP guy which is exactly what he was in 2009.
metro
12/2/2009-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
330′s? .326 career OBP, curious where his 2009 OBP ranks? 15th out of 19 eligible RF and Frenchy? he ranks 19/19. Does that sound like a duo that makes sense?
metro
12/2/2009-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
So lets see based on 2009 stats assuming we signed Molina (not a huge jump as everyone is saying it may happen)
Molina- Last among eligible catchers
Frenchy- Last among eligible RD
Hart- 15th out eligible RF
Murphy- last among 1b
trs86
12/2/2009-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
Can we put up other stats besides OBP or is that it?
Kingman 26
12/2/2009-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
prismo
12/2/2009-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
*sigh* MC is suggesting that because other teams are *less* interested in Holliday, the Mets should offer *more* with a sixth-year. If that’s the case, maybe the Mets should find a player that *no one* is interested in (like former met, Emil Brown!) and really blow him away with an eight-year contract offer.
Kingman 26
12/2/2009-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
LOL!!!
metro
12/2/2009-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
He thinks they should overpay because teams are less interested? Boras isn’t going to jump on any offer so we have to “play the game”. I’m not as in love with Holliday as some others but he would be a very nice addition but giving a ridiculous contract would hurt us more than help us.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
The Mets should just get it over with and offer him 10 years, $250 million, back loaded. One quick move to kill the franchise for the next decade, spare us all the slow death.
trs86
12/2/2009-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
Guys I too think you trade Pagan if someone views him as a starting CF. Take a look at the CF available. What we may have is a great trading chip.
Center fielders
Rick Ankiel (30)
Rocco Baldelli (28)
Marlon Byrd (32) – Type B, offered arb
Mike Cameron (37) – Type B, not offered arb
Endy Chavez (32)
Coco Crisp (30)
Darin Erstad (36)
Jeff Fiorentino (27)
Ryan Freel (34)
Joey Gathright (28)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
Reed Johnson (33)
Corey Patterson (30)
Scott Podsednik (34)
Considering age and contract terms Pagan shoots to near the top of that list.
prismo
12/2/2009-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
I agree. I think Pagan could look very attractive to other teams. Mets fans may be a bit more burnt out on him due to his lack of fundamentals, but other teams may see the tools he has (and the hitting success) and be willing to look past his flubs.
trs86
12/2/2009-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
Plus they may just not see those flubs as anything more than the Mets just being plain fundamentally deficient.
trs86
12/2/2009-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
So what am I saying? Trade Pagan for a guy we can start next year and then sign one of these guys like Endy to be the 4th OF>
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/2/2009-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
ENDY!!!!
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
Like Prismo I am with you on this. I think it was Wanny who stated previously Pagan is a good guy for the Mets to trade in a “strike while the iron is hot” way. I agree with that idea.
I think at least a slim majority of us agree on that. What I think we’re disagreeing on is what is a desirable or acceptable return.
In that context, I agree with Metro in that I don’t want Corey Hart. Whether he sucks as much as Metro says I don’t know, but what I do know is that the Mets won’t win a lot of games with an OF of Hart/Beltran/Francouer, especially if they sign B. Molina as C.
Any order of Francoeur/Molina/Hart is OBP death in the 5/6/7 holes.
trs86
12/2/2009-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
Hopefully it would be 6/7/8 but as to your point I am trying to find a stat that I read was being kept. RBI/RBIchance To me that percentage could show favorable for a guy like Francouer or Molina. It’s hard for a sac-fly or a run producing out to show up in OBP or OPS.
metro
12/2/2009-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
That stat wouldn’t work. It was originally brought up by Curt Schilling and “debunked”.It implies that say…. A-Rod comes up 200 times (a made up number) with a runner on 2nd and third 3b and gets a hit every time and Jeter comes up with runners on 1st and 2nd and gets a hit every time that A-Rod is better because he drove in more runs but Jeter and A-Rod both did their jobs equally.
fongy2
12/2/2009-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
b/t/w,I have the sinking feeling
Omar is gonna sign Molina
now that SF
didn’t offer arb.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think that is the way you would look at it. They are not going to get a hit every time. It has yet to be debunked in my opinion. What it would measure is how many times a player gets an RBI in a situation that a runner is in scoring position. It has nothing to do with who gets a hit. If that is not an effective stat then why measure BARISP for batting average?
Which one is better. A Castillo single with a man on 3rd but the guy can’t score or a Frenchy sac fly? I take the sac fly.
But anyway, the stats out there and I am looking for it so if you see it let me know.
metro
12/2/2009-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve only seen it in passing from Schilling so he obviously has seen it somewhere I doubt Curt Schilling makes up his own stats… but who knows with him.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
I googled “rbi/rbi chance” and got nothing.
I’ve skimmed through fangraphs and baseball-reference and found nothing.
It sounds interesting, I wouldn’t just throw it away as a stat if I found it, I would like to use it in a broad way to compare players “score” in it over long periods of time, see how it might vary and so on.
I find the concept intriguing.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
I think in the NL it becomes very important for the 6-8 guys with the pitcher coming up and #8 hitters in the NL usually being bad or OBP guys the 6/7 guys need to be RBI guys as much as OBP guys in my opinion.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-12:50pm at 12:50 pm (UTC -4)
That sounds reasonable to me.
I am just very frightened by the all-or-nothing aspect of Francoeur/Hart/Molina consecutively in whatever order.
Put say Thole there instead it becomes more tolerable to me. How about Thole 8th?
trs86
12/2/2009-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
Possible I guess but I have no reason to think yet that he would be a high OBP guy in the MLB, YET.
metro
12/2/2009-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
Also in Molina’s case his OBP is so low (below .300) and he is so SLOW that these things need to be looked at. Bengie Molina basically can’t score from 1b on anything but a triple or home run and he can’t score from 2b on anything but a perfectly placed hit, he also will have trouble scoring on anything but the deepest of sac flies, that is a negative.
wannybackstra
12/2/2009-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
Even if Frenchy and Molina and Hart are all RBU/Chance Gods there won’t be any chances with the three of them hitting behind one another.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
Good point, unless you get rebound years then it could be difficult for the #8 hitter. Still not upset to see 6/7 being strong RBI/RBIC guys.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
However at least it would provide more power than what we had and it would not be an “easy 1-2-3″ without the chance of a HR or even an extra base hit like we had last year.
wannybackstra
12/2/2009-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
I think lower OBPs generally mean easier 1-2-3s.
trs86
12/2/2009-2:50pm at 2:50 pm (UTC -4)
In general you are right. But If I were a pitcher I would be much more concerned with say
Frenchy, Molina, Hart, pitcher than Castillo, Figgins, Pierre, pitcher?
wannybackstra
12/2/2009-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
I doubt that’s even true (even though I had no idea we were choosing between these sets of players).
Pitchers don’t want tough outs. Like them or not, Castillo and Figgins are tough outs.
Guys like Molina who go up first pitch garbage ball swinging are easy outs. Even if he might hit a HR 15 times a year.
trs86
12/2/2009-2:57pm at 2:57 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I am worn out today. Long night so I concede this one. Those guys were just off the top of my head all OBP guys instead of the Molina, Frenchy types.
But anyway, I just think that OBP is a great tool but I also think that in certain spots in the lineup you need RBI guys and can sacrifice OBP but maybe not 3 in a row. You know my stance on this. Too tired to debate it.
metro
12/2/2009-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
Show me a player who doesn’t have “big time” speed aka a Juan Pierre who is valuable despite a horrific OPS? Please name them. Show me similar players to Corey Hart who have .750 or so OPS and are valuable as corner OF. I’m waiting.
stickguy
12/2/2009-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
I agree with you that Hart is pretty mediocre. Unless he somehow has an epiphany and starts taking bad pitches and walking, he isn’t worth the money or starting job.
They already have Frenchy, who seems to be pretty much the same player, and I am no where near as high on Francouer as some others are. I certainly don’t want his clone over in LF.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
According to fangraphs the following players had worse w/OBA last season
Melky, Hermidia, Rowand, Soriano, Wells, Frenchy, Dukes, Young, Gywnn, Upton, Rios, Anderson, Winn, Ankiel, Taveras to name a few.
metro
12/2/2009-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
If I told you the Mets had 4 million to spend on LF would ANY of those guys make you overly happy? Only Upton, Soriano and Dukes would interest me and Upton at least has 40 steal speed and can play CF, Soriano in the past has been a big-time player and Dukes I still think has the upside to be a very very good offensive player.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=1&season=2009&month=0
metro
12/2/2009-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
Ok and I wouldn’t want any of those players playing LF for the Mets (except Soriano if he cost 4 million because of the upside) in 2010 especially with Frenchy in RF
metro
12/2/2009-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
I’d take Dukes too
trs86
12/2/2009-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
So you would not trade Pagan for any of those guys? How about Upton? Really?
metro
12/2/2009-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
I skipped over Upton. Just Upton, Dukes and Soriano. What does trading Pagan have to do with it? It’s the 4 million dollars and slotting them as every day LF that bothers me. If it’s Pagan (our 4th OF) for Hart (our new more expensive 4th OF) then sure I’d do it 10/10 times.
metro
12/2/2009-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
Melky (only has value as a CF), Hermidia (sucks), Rowand (only has ANY value as a CF), Soriano (I’d gamble 4 million he would bounce back), Wells (absolutely sucks), Frenchy (already a Met), Dukes (upside), Young (looking more and more like he sucks), Gywnn (sucks), Upton (I’d take him), Rios (has regressed into a vastly overpaid player, I’d take him at 4 million at the chance he bounced back), Anderson (not sure which anderson this is), Winn (old and done), Ankiel (most of his value is his ability to play CF and his arm, wouldnt want him as an every day LF), Taveras (absolutely sucks) to name a few.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
You are also forgetting the notion that IF the Mets are on a budget that 4 million saves much more money for pitching.
metro
12/2/2009-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
What pitcher are they adding that will break the budget anyway? Only Lackey figures to see “big money” I’m not going “cheap” in LF to sign superstar Jason Marquis.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
UH, that’s the point. If the Mets are getting say Lackey or Halladay like they need then they MAY have to go cheap in LF.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
If they sign Marquis then they are also signing another b type pitcher and Holliday in my opinion.
I just don’t see them spending big money on LF and SP.
metro
12/2/2009-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
So you trade Pagan for Hart now with the HOPE you may get Lackey (Mets reportedly aren’t hot for him anyway) or can jump in and land Halladay? Doesn’t make much sense to me sorry.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
There are just as many reports right now saying the Mets are hot for Lackey as there are not. Just like the reports that they were not hot for Krod last year.
Also, so they don’t get Lackey and have to sign Wolf and Marquis. Could they not then trade Hart or use him as a 4th OF?
stickguy
12/2/2009-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
I certainly would trade him for something valuable and useful, but not just to get rid of him. He would be very nice to have on the bench and starting PT (in some kind of OF rotation). But also, not that hard to replace.
So, if they can get a live arm or a C or some other needed part, go for it.
If nothing else, a perfect guy to troll out there to see if some GM happens to have a hard on for him.
Funny thing though. Readin gsome of th ecomments about that Hochever (sp?) guy, and how could the Brewers give up on him at 26 even though he put up putrid numbers, made me think of Pelfrey.
And, I am pretty sure some of the same posters saying the Brewers won’t give up on him are the same ones saying Pelf stinks, and unload him!
If you want a comparable deal to pagan for Hoochie koochie (maybe..)? Cone for Hearn. This guy has david cone written all over him
fongy2
12/2/2009-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Damn you Heb! You stole my cliche!
I was just about to post that if another team views Pagan as a viable
option to start in CF,”strike while the iron is hot” and move him.
Damn you! Get out of my head!
b/t/w, Heres hoping Omar does the same with Luis Aches&Pains!
If anyone has interest,move him NOW!
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
I’m pretty sure I stole that line from Wanny, so there’s 3 of us with that line rolling around in our heads.
I agree with you about Luis too. I am not down on him like some, but if the Mets can find a taker for him and in turn improve the 2B defense I’m all for it.
Speaking of defense, I don’t know if anyone noted it specifically in this Corey Hart debate, but in addition to my subjective one moment criticism of his arm from the AS game a few years ago, his defensive metric ratings are not good.
His overall career total numbers regardless of which OF position are -3.8 UZR, -1.5 UZR/150.
Last season in RF they were -5.1, -9.1. Why do we want this guy?
fongy2
12/2/2009-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t WANT him…
BUT I’d flip Pagan for him.
I’d think Hart would have more value,hence
we might be able to include him in a larger deal to bring back a better OFer or SPer.
If not, he might be a
good power bat off the
bench,at least for a while,able to play LF,RF&1B…As well as
possibly platooning with a LH/LF if we got
one. Point is, I’d think he’d have more value than Pagan..But
hey maybe I’m wrong.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
IF they are going to spend money on pitching and cash IS an issue I have no problems with giving him a shot. I would hope LF would be easier for him but even at those stats they are not as bad as some of the other names out there.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
You and Fongy both make valid, reasonable points here.
For me, at the end of the day, I just can’t get excited about a starting OF of Hart/Beltran/Francoeur.
If I knew, as Fongy suggests may be possible, that Hart were coming aboard just to be sent away in a different deal before the start of the season, I’d be more open to his acquisition.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
What it would do is also allow for us to see who the real Frenchy and Hart are during the season and trade one if needed. Also allowing a spot for Davis or Fmart.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
That sounds distinctly like ‘rebuilding’ to me.
If the Mets are rebuilding or coasting or holding serve or whatever, that’s fine with me I’m OK with that for longterm benefit.
I don’t see the Mets as a viable contender with that OF unless there are noteworthy upgrades at SP, 1B, 2B and C.
trs86
12/2/2009-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
Not rebuilding at all. IF the Mets got Lackey/Halladay for SP and LaRoche for 1B are you saying you could not deal with a scrub in LF?
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
I would have a much easier time swallowing the scrub in your scenario, but I subjectively see little to no chance that 2 of the 3 guys you mention actually wind up here (Halladay & LaRoche).
So as I subjectively see it, Lackey and scrub LF, not enough.
trs86
12/2/2009-1:19pm at 1:19 pm (UTC -4)
Hmmm, then we are doomed. Because I see no way the Mets get above average players at LF and SP.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-1:25pm at 1:25 pm (UTC -4)
I think doomed is perhaps strong, and I also personally feel their is a difference between “above average” and “scrub.”
Generally, the more I think about this off season, the more I feel like the Mets simply have too many holes to fill to do a good enough job at it, without going bonkers budget wise, and I don’t expect them to do that.
I say that understanding that you feel strongly that there are “100 different ways” to make the Mets contenders, I even agree to an extent, I just don’t have faith this FO knows how to do it.
I guess I can hope they’re listening to your suggestions
I certainly believe they CAN do it, but in the ‘take a gamble on some scrubs scenarios’ so many more things have to break the right way.
It’s of course quite possible that the Mets could sign Kelvim Escobar, Rich Harden, Rick Ankiel and Josh Bard and win 100 games. So much has to go perfect to accomplish it though, and are they willing to take that kind of approach?
(feel free to insert different scrubs/risks/gambles, you are quite good at it and I mean that sincerely).
trs86
12/2/2009-1:43pm at 1:43 pm (UTC -4)
I just don’t view Hart as a total scrub but as one with potential and I would think that say in June that if we find out we need more offense we would still have the chips to add some either by taking a contract guy or if we signed Lackey by using prospects. Obviously if we went with Hart then you have to upgrade 1B and possibly 2B and or another SP.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-1:54pm at 1:54 pm (UTC -4)
All reasonable and fair points.
My problem with any “plan” for the Mets that involves these mid-level type players (not stars, not scrubs, the in-betweeners) is that this current FO has shown no propensity or ability to do it.
That’s why, despite the reasonable viability of such plans, I always ultimately fall back on the big guys. I know Omar can do that.
I hope that with guys like Terry Collins and Wayne Krivsky around, the likelihood this FO can execute a plan involving players that earn $5 to $10 million increases.
Otherwise it’s a lot of $12 to $20 million guys and a lot of $600,000 guys.
That’s why I am not excited about Hart, because I have no faith the FO can fill in around him adequately. Just as counting on this FO to add a hitter in June/July is a nice thought, but when have they ever done it?
trs86
12/2/2009-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
Until last year Grave I am not sure it could ever been said that they desperately needed a starting hitter. They have made small moves like Shawn Green and Frenchy but no big names.
stickguy
12/2/2009-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
just poked around on MLBTR. Interesting comments on the Pagan trade scenerio.
Also a piece about the Mets maybe getting involved in a 3 way with teh cubs and rays involving burrell, castillo and bradley. Mets of course end up with Pat the Gimp.
Not sure I can see that, but who knows. At least it is 1 year!
some people were proposing Pagan ++ going to SD for A Gon. Interesting, but not likely.
Maybe the Reds? Still want Philips, and will take Harang to get him.
A few posters pitched pagan for Collapso (sp?) to play 2B, whoever he is!
At least the rumors are starting to fly now.
fongy2
12/2/2009-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
Hes a decent 2B who also likes
smacking around his wife.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
Must be a Wally favorite.
The idea with Burrell is a terrible one. Want nothing to do with that one. I would rather have Bradley and cash than Burrell.
metro
12/2/2009-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
Burrell looks done. I’d have 1% interest in him at 1b but even then it would be a gabmble
fongy2
12/2/2009-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t stand Bradley BUT agree with Pat the Bat as they
used to call him in Philly.
Met killer who’d kill us
even more in a Met uniform,can’t
field,very streaky hitter
and looks to be
well on the downside of his career.
metro
12/2/2009-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
Callaspo is a plus hitter for a 2b for the Royals(and was in the D-Backs system before being accused of hitting his wife) but apparently his fielding is horrible.
metro
12/2/2009-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
Pagan would be the 4th or 5th piece in a deal for Adrian Gonzalez.
metro
12/2/2009-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
Can’t see the Mets taking on Phillips AND Harang that’s a boatload of money. At that point they might as well pay the piper on Holliday and sign “cheaper” pitcher… Wolf, Piniero etc
trs86
12/2/2009-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
That’s also a boat load of money that fills 2 needed spots. Of course that is assuming you find a way to dump Castillo. The cash this year would be just that of Harang’s. Next year it could be just that of Phillips.
metro
12/2/2009-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
Harang’s option becomes mutual if he is traded not to mention with DeRosa, Lopez, Hudson, Scutaro etc all available odds are Castillo is going nowhere without the Mets either a) taking back another big money guy (Burrell etc) or eating money (which obviously costs money)
trs86
12/2/2009-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
if traded, 2011 option becomes mutual option at $14M ($2.5M buyout)
Based on my understanding even if he wants it then you can just buy him out at 2.5M.
metro
12/2/2009-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah so your inheriting a total 19+ million in 2010 and a total of 33.75 million guaranteed (over 2 years) and still need to dump Castillo and add a 1b, C, LF, doesn’t seem to make sense if the Mets have a limited budget.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
Again it would be assuming that you already did dump Castillo in that deal or in another deal. Man it’s hard to debate when you don’t read. Besides that, Phillips over Castillo makes upgraded 1B less necessary and backup catchers can be found for cheap.
At 19 million this season and subtract the Castillo salary you still have a lot of money to spend.
metro
12/2/2009-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
107-6 million for Castillo= 101 million 101+ 19.75= 120.75 million for 1b/LF/C/P and at least 1 bench player (righty bat?), you think that is a “lot” of money? If the payroll is say 135 million that’s 14.25 million to spread over LF/1b/C/RP, doesn’t sound like a lot to me.
trs86
12/2/2009-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
The payroll last year was 149M. You have not been on here enough to know that we have for the most part all agreed on the 28-32 million to spend based on looking at last year’s payroll about 1000 times.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
If the Reds were desperate to unload Harang and Phillips would they not consider taking Castillo?
metro
12/2/2009-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
They want to totally dump them not add any salary. They have a set in stone payroll of supposedly 73 million and have 9 players making 65. They are VERY unlikely to take on 12 million (6 per) in Castillo even to dump salary. Both players “sold separately” would still bring back value.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
If you were the Reds wouldn’t you take 12 million for 32 million?
metro
12/2/2009-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
If I’m the Reds I shop both players. There is no rule they need to be paired together. Both the Angels and Red Sox have shown interest in Phillips already.
metro
12/2/2009-12:50pm at 12:50 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t see how the Mets would flush out the rest of the team with 126+ already spent making this trade even with Castillo gone (in your scenario)
trs86
12/2/2009-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
They have 28-32 million to spend to match last year’s payroll. If you spend 13 of it you still have 15 to 19 to spend.
metro
12/2/2009-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
I’m really not trying to be a jerk but I keep re-reading and don’t see where this starting catcher is coming from unless your starting Santos and I missed you saying it.
trs86
12/2/2009-2:53pm at 2:53 pm (UTC -4)
By the way, lost in all of this yes Santos and who ever would platoon for catcher.
metro
12/2/2009-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
Even if in your scenario the Reds DID take Castillo back. The Mets would have spent 19.25 million for 2010 with no LF, no 1b, no additions to the pen and no catcher. They have spend 107 (approx) so far+ 19.25 meaning the Mets would be at 126.5 million with no 1b, no LF, no catcher and no added reliever, doesn’t seam feasible unless they were increasing the payroll.
metro
12/2/2009-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
15-19 isn’t much money to spend on a LF/1b/C/bench player and the bullpen
trs86
12/2/2009-1:11pm at 1:11 pm (UTC -4)
Why would you need to spend a lot of money on a backup catcher? say 1 million? Why would you need to spend money on 1B AND a bench guy if you are upgrading 2B from Castillo to Phillips you can handle Murphy’s offense. Get a guy to be a RH bench guy and possible platoon with Murphy.
So let me break this down for you.
Harang, Phillips, Glaus, Cameron, Bako, Dotel subtract Castillo.
That could easily fit within 32 million.
metro
12/2/2009-1:31pm at 1:31 pm (UTC -4)
Backup catcher? Who is the starting catcher? Paul Bako is the starting catcher? Omir Santos?
metro
12/2/2009-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
Also more concerns with Harang then say… Randy Wolf. Harang’s H/9 higher than it has ever been and his velocity was down. Certainly things to consider when dolling out 15+ million for a player
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
His WHIP was up, no argument there, but the velocity thing is inaccurate.
His velocity was UP last year, higher than his career average velocity on his FB.
90.4 mph last year, his highest since 2006 and his career avg is 90.2.
metro
12/2/2009-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll be honest I read the velocity thing on another site but his whip and H/9 were both up and thats coming off his worst year (2008) so it’s a 2 year pattern of concern at this point and I expected to see big home/road splits since he pitches in Cincy but there weren’t.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-1:05pm at 1:05 pm (UTC -4)
I appreciate the candor and agree that the WHIP is alarming.
More subjectively, I have such little faith in the Mets SP after Santana that I believe if Harang were a Met, despite valid misgivings about him some of which I share, he’d immediately become their 2nd best SP.
trs86
12/2/2009-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think there is any debate about your last line.
fongy2
12/2/2009-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t want Harang
BUT the overall investment on Phillips
and Harang instead of
Holliday and whoever
would be far shorter and cheaper.
Plus, I still have alot of questions about how good Holliday really is…
metro
12/2/2009-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t think “cheaper” is true at all. For 2010 and 2011 Harang and Phillips= 19.25 million in 2010 and 23.75 in 2011 (Harang’s option becomes mutual if traded). Shorter years is not debatable however.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
See previous, he could still be bought out.
fongy2
12/2/2009-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
But if you sign Holliday,you’ll be allocating 20mil a
yr ’til
2015or16 and again,I
fear we’ll get alot more of the Oakland A’s Holliday than the one who played in Denver or in St.Louie with
Albert standing on deck.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
Pagan as a piece in a puzzle to SD for AGon is interesting. I know nothing of the SD minor league system but a quick glance at their ML roster shows he would at worst compete to start at all of their OF positions.
Callaspo was the Royals 2B last season. I had him on, and off, and on, and off my fantasy team last year. He was very streaky. Defensively versatile yet inconsistent. Coming off a career year. Sounds a lot like Pagan.
trs86
12/2/2009-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
I read one about Pagan being a piece for Halladay as well. Not sure if there is much on that either.
metro
12/2/2009-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
The Padres claim Gonzalez isn’t available but any deal would likely have to include Fernando (who they offered more money too) and Mejia TO START
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
I ultimately don’t see why SD would trade AGon unless they get blown away by an offer they can’t refuse.
He’s just not that expensive. If he’s too expensive for SD, they should be forced to sell to new owners or contract the team, that’s pathetic.
If SD really must trade someone to save money, they should trade Chris Young (and I want no part of him).
whataputz
12/2/2009-1:36pm at 1:36 pm (UTC -4)
Grave, your not looking at the big picture here. Sure he’s ear cheap now, but the second he hits the fa market he’s gonna command a 100+ mil dollar deal, maybe even 200 mil. If they wait til his last year of his deal, they’re going to get screwed by the small market of teams that could afford him (Texeira is locked up long term, so no yanks on this one.). If they trade him now they could demand top value, instead of being forced to sell short like the Twins.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
Understood, that’s why I said they shouldn’t trade him unless they get “an offer they can’t refuse.”
Isn’t that sort of the same thing as “demanding top value?”
All I’m saying, and I apologize for not making this clear, is that some people (mostly commenters I’ve read at MLBTR) are painting the trade of AGon by SD as a trade they have to make because they can’t afford to pay him his current contract, and I find that absurd.
trs86
12/2/2009-1:49pm at 1:49 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, he will have the same value now as he will in July after you have gotten another 19 tickets sold because of him. Ok maybe a few more.
metro
12/2/2009-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
Ugh…. If we traded Pagan for Jose Guillen I’ll be sick. Guillen is not what we need.
metsfan4decades
12/2/2009-1:49pm at 1:49 pm (UTC -4)
Sad to say, I agree with GraveDigger’s 1:25pm post on the state of this team. The one where he expressed his opinion that we just might have too many holes we’re trying to fill for 2010. That and the FA crop this year is leaning towards thin for some of the positions we really need.
We might get lucky. Some of the guys we get and/or have (Frenchy comes to mind) might play above their head or have career years. Omar might have something up his sleeve that we’re not aware of that will go along ways towards being contenders.
The more I’m reading though this past couple of weeks, the more I’m starting to think it’s going to take more than just this off season to get the job done.
I’m willing to reserve judgment until April. What really has me worried though is the starting pitching situation. I just don’t see patch work getting it done….
trs86
12/2/2009-1:50pm at 1:50 pm (UTC -4)
I just don’t agree. I don’t think it’s that hard to reach the wild card level at LEAST.
metsfan4decades
12/2/2009-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
Good point. My mind was on winning the NL east but the NL east being what it is, the wild card is not out of range…
Then again, reading comments on MLBTR on the Pagan rumor gives me some hope. Here’s one for instance:
‘The Padres need a CF too. How about Angel Pagan, Fernando Martinez, and Jon Niese for Adrian Gonzalez. This gives the Padres a starting CF, a future star RF, a young pitcher for their rotation and it allows the Padres to finally move Kyle Blanks to 1B where he should be playing! ‘
This appears to be from a Padres fan. I do that trade today.
wannybackstra
12/2/2009-2:50pm at 2:50 pm (UTC -4)
Have that kid meet Omar at Bagel Boss tomorrow.
metro
12/2/2009-1:58pm at 1:58 pm (UTC -4)
They aren’t catching the Phillies barring a lot of luck but the WC is within reach if they stay reasonably healthy and make some solid additions.
GravediggerHebner
12/2/2009-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
As far as the heated debate about the Mets 2009 payroll, God only knows what the real figure is (well, God and the Mets accountants).
In what seems to have turned out to be a futile attempt to help, I googled the phrase “2009 mlb payroll(s)” and found quite a disparity:
The first link that comes up is for a website called “getlisty.com” which claims to have used USAToday as it’s source, and it cites the figure
$149,373,987
Second link is cbssports.com which cites no source for the figure
$135,773,988
Third link is “about.com” which cites USAToday as it’s source for
$149,373,987
Fourth link is mlb.com which cites the Associated Press, figure
$135,773,988
Fifth link is wikipedia, source USAToday, figure
$138,685,197
Sixth link is The Sporting News, source Associated Press, figure
$135,773,988
Seventh link is dead
Eighth link is “intertainment.uk.com,” source cbssports.com, figure
$135,773,988
Ninth link is espn.com , source Associated Press, figure
$135,773,988
Tenth link is USAToday, source itself, figure
$149,373,987
So it’s pretty much either $135,773,988 or $149,373,987, except for the Wikipedia’s unique total of $138,685,197.
I can’t claim to know how they derived their figures or whether they are Opening Day figures or not. I think we’ve established a fair range.
Oddly enough the source I rely on most for such things, Cots Contracts, has two different figures. At the top of their Met page it says $149,373,987, but then if you click on their hyperlink for 2009 it says $139,602,235 which is another unique figure in the sea of figures.
Have fun hashing that all out everyone! I have to head out, Let’s Go Mets!
trs86
12/2/2009-2:42pm at 2:42 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, the 2009 link when you click on it does not include a few guys salaries. Some of those account for Sheff being included, some don’t. Some include Wagner some don’t. Some use their 40 man, some use their 25 man. I have looked at their salaries so many times and ran my own spreadsheets so many times I am about sick of it and should have just left it alone.
wannybackstra
12/2/2009-3:14pm at 3:14 pm (UTC -4)
Regarding Tatis: Isn’t there a rule that if a player is not offered arbitration by his outgoing team then that team may not re-sign that player until May?