Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports tweets#Mets and #Nationals continue pursuing Marquis. Don’t rule out #Phillies.
Why?
I know he’s from Staten Island and has been seen on Santa’s Lap asking for the Mets to sign him, but come on as Tim Dierkes of MLBTR puts it, “Marquis, 31, posted a 4.04 ERA, 4.8 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9 in 216 innings for the Rockies this year.”
Like I’ve said before, I’d much rather have Nelson Figueroa than Jason Marquis, even if he is a “journeyman”.
62 comments
CaseStreet
12/9/2009-6:26pm at 6:26 pm (UTC -4)
really, Figgy, Nieve or Elmer would be just as good and less expensive
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-6:29pm at 6:29 pm (UTC -4)
They sure would be less expensive, but Figgy and Elmer would be infinitely worse.
Nieve, on the other hand, still is young and has potential.
fongy2
12/9/2009-6:34pm at 6:34 pm (UTC -4)
Niese?
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-6:44pm at 6:44 pm (UTC -4)
No, Fernando Nieve–the ex-Astro who looked great for a few games, cooled off, then–of course–got hurt.
fongy2
12/9/2009-8:19pm at 8:19 pm (UTC -4)
No….
what about Niese?
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-8:32pm at 8:32 pm (UTC -4)
Oh! Well, I do like him, but I guess I think it is too early to count on him…
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-6:27pm at 6:27 pm (UTC -4)
Love ya Case, but Figgy is a journeyman which no MLB team wants for very good reasons.
I don’t want Marquis, but call me Fong for what will happen to my optimism if Figgy is anything other than the last man out of the pen in 2010.
He is not a guy for a winning team. Except maybe in Korea or Mexico. No offense to them, but their level of pro ball is not what it is in the US.
fongy2
12/9/2009-6:33pm at 6:33 pm (UTC -4)
Italy??
Figgy is a great story…local
boy makes good and all but he
is a AAAA pitcher.
Marquis is a legit4th or 5th starter who will give ya 200IPs, a .500record & a 4.5ERA.
What i don’t like about the guy is that two teams with great reps with Pitchers
gave up on him.
GravediggerHebner
12/9/2009-6:27pm at 6:27 pm (UTC -4)
It’s just that classic old difference of opinion. You and I, considering expected respective cost, feel that Figueroa is the better value. Others feel differently. Both sides make good arguments IMO.
My guess is with Wolf being off the market, with Pineiro’s people spelling out how they think Pineiro is better and will require more than Wolf got, the Mets are simply crossing off ‘second tier’ starters on their list and Marquis’ name is next.
I don’t feel that it’s the best use of resources but I am at least open to Marquis as a secondary SP acquisition, with Halladay or Lackey as the primary. If Marquis is their ‘big’ move, I can only hope they also sign Sheets and pray he’s healthy.
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-6:43pm at 6:43 pm (UTC -4)
I will say that I would rather have Figgy than a 3 or 4 year deal for Pineiro. He will make Ollie’s deal look great.
But I just do not see how you and Case–two of the people I respect most on here and learn most from–can debate Figgy vs Wolf or Marquis, when Figgy is 35 and has never done anything over even one full season.
GravediggerHebner
12/9/2009-6:57pm at 6:57 pm (UTC -4)
I think it’s in the same context as your Figgy>Pineiro – it’s all about their contract.
If Marquis is coming here dirt cheap as a secondary addition I welcome him. If he’s coming here at Wolf actual or Pineiro suggested salary and years, I run screaming with hair on fire.
I never debated Figgy v. Wolf, it was strictly Figgy at $500,000 versus Marquis at the wild guess of 3 or 4 years and 8 – 12 mil per.
I know Marquis is better than Figgy and more proven than Figgy, but I think that’s faint praise and I don’t think he’s that many years and that many dollars better, especially in the context of the current Mets roster and payroll situation.
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-7:03pm at 7:03 pm (UTC -4)
Gotcha, and I like the run screaming with hair on fire line—that will be me if we sign Pineiro!
fongy2
12/9/2009-6:28pm at 6:28 pm (UTC -4)
Why Case? Well I’ll ya why…b/c
Omar doesn’t know what the h*ll
he’s doing! That’s why!
Why give the Rangers something
more than a former,failed closer
prospect whos still recovering from TJ surgery 2 yrs later …for….
Kevin Millwood, abetter Pitcher than Marquis, when you can just throw
money the #4/5 quasi-innings??
Because…THAT’s Omar!!
And that’s why this team is in the
trouble its in.
fongy2
12/9/2009-6:29pm at 6:29 pm (UTC -4)
Should have read quasi-innings
eater BUT I was nervous Omar
may indeed be reading and say
“crap, I forgot about Molina”
And make a three year offer.
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-6:50pm at 6:50 pm (UTC -4)
MLBTR says the Braves have lessened their demands for Lowe and will eat salary.
I say he is a better option than all of the garbage we are debating above.
He is solid and reliable, and much more likely to be good-to-very good than Wolf, Marquis, Pineiro, etc.
wannybackstra
12/9/2009-6:51pm at 6:51 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed. If Omar could get him for a couple of middling prospects and have a few dollars shaved off the top, I’d like it.
Lowe can have a bounce back year.
HOWEVER, if the Mets are pursuing Lowe, Marquis and Pineiro types (i.e. non-strikeout pitchers) they had better sure up their embarrassing defense from last year.
GravediggerHebner
12/9/2009-7:00pm at 7:00 pm (UTC -4)
Your last paragraph is key. They need a positive defender at 2B if any of those guys come or it will be ugly.
CaseStreet
12/9/2009-6:55pm at 6:55 pm (UTC -4)
despite Marquis having done it, he’s Livan IMO.
Figgy at least has a much higher K/BB ratio.
Do you guys think Figgy could really do much worse than Marquis? maybe, but I’m not so sure.
Like Grave said, it’s about value.
Figgy = cheap
Marquis = mucho dinero
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-7:04pm at 7:04 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, I think even at 75% effort, Figgy could do much, much worse than Marquis!
manicmcreynolds
12/9/2009-7:20pm at 7:20 pm (UTC -4)
I admit that over the past few seasons I’ve been curious to see what Figgy could do with, say, 8 consecutive turns through the rotation.
Would be surprised if he put up 5 quality starts. And that’s not bad for a #5!
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-8:42pm at 8:42 pm (UTC -4)
First off, welcome, as we appreciate your being here.
But I do think that there is a real good reason why Figgy has never had more than 13 starts in a year, over a decade, with five organizations.
wannybackstra
12/9/2009-7:30pm at 7:30 pm (UTC -4)
K/BB ratio is much higer? Maybe last year (and keep in mind Figgy pitched a 1/3 of the innings that Marquis pitched). For their careers they have almost equally horrible 1.6 ratio for Figgy and 1.5 for Marquis. And Figgy’s might go down some more without the mercy of his various banishments to AAA and parts unknown.
The difference between the two is peace of mind. Marquis is a lock for 190-200 IP of league average baseball (and a postseason appearance for his team — check it out!) while Figgy at age 35 has pitched fewer innings in his 7 season MLB career than Marquis pitched in the last two.
Marquis would be fine for the bottom of the rotation. If you get Lackey and Marquis, the Mets will have a solid rotation that can afford to take a chance on the high risk Maines and Perez’s of the world.
Santana
Lackey
Pelfrey
Marquis
Perez
Maine to the pen, where he could probably be a great short reliever and serve as insurance for Ollie and injuries.
CaseStreet
12/9/2009-8:09pm at 8:09 pm (UTC -4)
um, looking at their entire careers, Marquis is consistently a high BB and low K pitcher while Figgy is a low BB and high K pitcher.
I understand peace of mind about a 200 IP, but isn’t that the same argument that brought us Livan, but for much cheaper than Marquis? Why not just bring back Livan?
Pedro had a WS appearance, do you want him back, too? How about Padilla?
I’m not trying to promote Figgy as I’m trying to reject Marquis.
fongy2
12/9/2009-8:22pm at 8:22 pm (UTC -4)
Not to mention that on the good,playoff teams Marquis has been a part
of HE GETS LEFT
OFF THE PLAYOFF ROSTER!
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-7:06pm at 7:06 pm (UTC -4)
I must say, I still respect Omar, and I am patient and optimistic (that the Nets will continue their winning ways tonight) but I really would like to see our Metsies get something done sometime soon…..
steveo
12/9/2009-7:16pm at 7:16 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t rush anything, the nontender list will be out soon plenty to add from let some the irrational moves get made then strike.Forget molina save the money and see what happens in the comming weeks
whataputz
12/9/2009-7:21pm at 7:21 pm (UTC -4)
It’s not just about signing the highest potential pitcher. Marquis you can pencil in as a solid 4 eat innings and keep you in games, He;s she’s not throwing 1 hitters, but he’ll give you a solid game every time he pitches. Plus I feel that if he really will sign a 1 year deal or settle for a cheaper two then you it beats giving peneiro 4 years. Consistancy is key in thps game. The fact that he grew up a met fan can’t hurt either.
manicmcreynolds
12/9/2009-7:32pm at 7:32 pm (UTC -4)
I do think Marquis is tough, so there’s that. A scrappy hitter too!
What about Garland? He’s durable, and I’m inclined to think he gets shelled less often than Marquis.
Both Marquis and Garland were designated Type B, but only Marquis was offered arbitration. Does it constitute any advantage to sign the guy who was NOT offered arb., or does this only matter when the player is Type A?
CaseStreet
12/9/2009-8:10pm at 8:10 pm (UTC -4)
you only lose a pick if you sign a Type A that was offered arb
trs86
12/9/2009-7:48pm at 7:48 pm (UTC -4)
The better question is why am I debating the worth of a guy who consistantly puts up league average and wins 10+ games a year to a guy who when free and begging for a job nobody wants…. For less than league minimum.
Now why they would want him? Because there is a slight chance they don’t get Lackey and might need someone to pitch in our garbage rotation. That and if you took what you might get from Maine or Perez and averaged it with what you most likey would get you would get Marquis and know what the hell you are getting each time. An average pitcher that keeps you in the game.
CaseStreet
12/9/2009-8:14pm at 8:14 pm (UTC -4)
from the King of not overpaying for Lackey, do you really want to spend big money on an innings eater?
and yeah 10+ wins looks pretty, but wins doesn’t show a pitcher’s performance, ask 08 Santana.
Sorry, this guy just smells of an expensive Livan.
fongy2
12/9/2009-8:24pm at 8:24 pm (UTC -4)
Except thinner!
fongy2
12/9/2009-8:29pm at 8:29 pm (UTC -4)
Could have had Millwood for a year….
and not give up much,which
The O’s didn’t.
But that would make too much
sense for Omar!
Nice easy move,assuring that
if you could do nothing else
you’ve acquired a mid-rotation
innings guy,likely happy to get out of The AL,who is known
to be a leader for younger Pitchers.
Nah,…Like I said, makes too much sense for old mush-mouth.
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-8:36pm at 8:36 pm (UTC -4)
Millwood is due 12 million.
He was horrible in 2007 and 2008. If he started off badly Fong, you would be the first person on here screaming bloody murder for Omar getting another old pitcher for that much dough.
fongy2
12/9/2009-8:56pm at 8:56 pm (UTC -4)
Wrong! Millwood
was recovering from arm surgery and if
Omars gonna gamble with a guy like Marquis who doesn’t have the track record of Millwood why not just get Millwood for a
yr.
Plus,YOU should
know that unlike most other fans,if I
advocate for a guy and I’m wrong on it,I’m
the first to admit it.
C’mon Brock.
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-9:02pm at 9:02 pm (UTC -4)
OK, I apologize….we both do admit when we are wrong….
GravediggerHebner
12/9/2009-8:33pm at 8:33 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know what this “league average” is that you refer to Marquis giving, perhaps I could be swayed with a better understanding of that.
Baseball-reference’s “neutralized pitching” puts Marquis (starting with 2004, his first full season) at 57-67 over that time, as opposed to 80-68 his actual W-L record during that time. That suggests the team around him contributed more than there fair share to his winning. So lets take a look at that.
In 2009, the Rockies scored 6.58 runs per game for Marquis, only 17 NL SP received greater run support.
In 2008, the Cubs scored 8.62 runs per game for Marquis, the best run support in the NL.
In 2007, the Cubs scored 8.45 runs per game for Marquis, the best run support in the NL.
In 2006, St. Louis scored 7.22 runs per game for Marquis, only 15 NL SP received greater run support. He won 14 games despite leading the major leagues in earned runs allowed. This same year Steve Trachsel led the league in run support at 9.02 runs per game. I think he’s available too. Let’s give him $30 mil or so over the next 3 years.
In 2005, St. Louis scored ‘only’ 5.74 runs per game for Marquis. 35 NL SP got greater support that year, so I’ll give him some credit for a good 2005.
In 2004, St. Louis scored 7.82 runs per game for Marquis, only 10 NL SP received greater run support.
His career ERA+ (and also his ERA+ starting with 2004) is 99, slightly below average.
His career tOPS+ is 22 points worse for the second half of seasons. Can we just sign him for first halves and then trade him or release him? I’d be more open to him if we could.
For what it’s worth he’s also worse than his own average when pitching to Henry Blanco.
Unless the Mets are gonna bang out like 7 runs a game for the guy, I don’t want him.
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-8:39pm at 8:39 pm (UTC -4)
Wow, thanks for these eye-openers. Steve Trachsel, anyone??
Let me clarify that I do not want Marquis; I just prefer him over Pineiro or Figgy.
fongy2
12/9/2009-8:39pm at 8:39 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t worry Heb!
Trust in Omar!
The Braves, whos drafted him and The
Cards with the truly
great Dave Duncan both
gave up on him BUT I’m sure we can fix him. Right?
CaseStreet
12/9/2009-8:50pm at 8:50 pm (UTC -4)
damn grave!
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-8:38pm at 8:38 pm (UTC -4)
This one’s for you Fong, from MLBTR:
7:12pm: The Mets haven’t made Molina an offer yet, but expect to propose a contract by tomorrow afternoon, according to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo.
fongy2
12/9/2009-8:46pm at 8:46 pm (UTC -4)
Saw it pal. This off season
isn’t goin’ well and will get
alot worse upon THAT signing.
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-8:55pm at 8:55 pm (UTC -4)
When Lackey, Holliday, Bay, Cameron, Mike Gonzalez, Soriano, Lowe, and Halladay are all taken elsewhere, then I will agree with you.
Again, look at SF’s pitching with Molina–and he caught Halladay in TOR and Lackey for years in LA.
Maybe, just maybe, Omar is on to something with the emphasis on the catching.
fongy2
12/9/2009-8:58pm at 8:58 pm (UTC -4)
To quote Yogi
“It’s gettin’
late,early”
Anyway,have a
good night!
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-9:00pm at 9:00 pm (UTC -4)
You too buddy!
Good luck to the Steelers tomorrow night!
steveo
12/9/2009-8:48pm at 8:48 pm (UTC -4)
Just say no! No Marquis and hell no on Molina all I remember is that the great Marquis wasnt even on the cards playoff roster in 06 and in 09 for the rockies.I dont know about 07 or 08 for the cubs .He can eat all the innings he wants just not in a met uniform please.By the way I can already see the nicknames for molina on the blog boards how bout BFM (big fat molina)
GravediggerHebner
12/9/2009-8:55pm at 8:55 pm (UTC -4)
This run support thing becomes more horrifying the more I look at it. The 2009 Mets run support for their starters:
Perez – 9.68
Maine – 8.41
Livan – 6.57 (includes both WAS and NYM support)
Pelf – 6.15
Johan – 4.75
TRed – 4.75
Misch – 3.61 (includes both NYM and SFG support)
Figgy – 3.33
BParn – 2.75
GravediggerHebner
12/9/2009-9:00pm at 9:00 pm (UTC -4)
I’d love to spend more time maligning Marquis but the Biography channel is about to show “Caddyshack: the Inside Story” so I’m out fellas, have a good night and Lets go Mets!
stickguy
12/9/2009-9:01pm at 9:01 pm (UTC -4)
those are really bad peripherals from Marquis. yeah, he stays healthy (so far, no guarantee with the mets though!) But really isn’t very good.
Frankly, is he really that much better than Redding (if redding doesn’t come in damaged this year)? Or even Figgy, based on how he pitched down the stretch?
especially when you factor in the 6-8 million extra Marquis would cost.
why pay extra for mediocrity when there is plenty available on the cheap?
CaseStreet
12/9/2009-10:21pm at 10:21 pm (UTC -4)
holy crap, didn’t even notice we still have Redding for another year
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-10:39pm at 10:39 pm (UTC -4)
No, I think it was a 1-year deal….
CaseStreet
12/9/2009-10:45pm at 10:45 pm (UTC -4)
he’s on the updated 40 man roster. last year of arbitration.
http://newyork.mets.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=nym
CaseStreet
12/9/2009-10:48pm at 10:48 pm (UTC -4)
also from Adam Rubin’s blog today:
The Mets appear to be trying to trade Tim Redding before the non-tender deadline Saturday, when they may cut him loose.
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2009/12/09/2009-12-09_lackey_a_target_for_mets.html?r=sports%2Fbaseball%2Fmets&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nydnrss%2Fsports%2Fbaseball%2Fmets+%28Sports%2FBaseball%2FMets%29#ixzz0ZFp95ER7
Kingman 26
12/9/2009-10:50pm at 10:50 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks….everywhere I looked, it said it was a 1-year deal…weird…
trs86
12/9/2009-10:59pm at 10:59 pm (UTC -4)
It is a one year deal, it’s just that he is still arbitration eligible because he has not reached his years of service. He has one more year of regular arbitration.
trs86
12/9/2009-11:01pm at 11:01 pm (UTC -4)
Final point on Marquis. No one on here is advocating big money or multiple years for Marquis and neither are the Mets based on rumors. So my point remains if he gets left out in the cold and can be gotten for 1 year and 8 million or less he is better than rolling the dice with both Maine AND Ollie.
trs86
12/9/2009-11:07pm at 11:07 pm (UTC -4)
OK one more. The guy had 1 VERY bad season that has vastly skewed a lot of numbers.
ERA+ 115, 102, 74, 100, 102, 113. And no wins are not a good way to judge a #1-3 starter. In my opinion wins do matter for #4′s and 5′s because if they are winning they are keeping you in the game. 15, 13, 14, 12, 11, 14 are still wins. Maybe he’s just lucky, anyway. As I said I do not want him for big money or long term but if you are telling me I could pay him 8 million for 1 year and knock either Perez or Maine out of the rotation I would be interested for sure.
GravediggerHebner
12/9/2009-11:20pm at 11:20 pm (UTC -4)
Final retort on Marquis. I say even under the circumstance of him being left out in the cold and being had for 1 year and 8 mil or less, the Mets are going to have to score an awful lot of runs for him to make him anything more than a guy that eats innings on some occasions and on said occasions gives the bullpen a break, ultimately winding up somewhere in the 10 W-11 L range. I have to believe a guy who is really only good for that could be had for less than 8 mil.
Bartolo Colon, Jose Contreras, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Livan Hernandez, Odalis Perez, Jarrod Washburn, Todd Wellemeyer (or dare I say Nelson Figueroa?) are some free agents who could produce arguably similar (not the same, perhaps not quite ‘as good’ but arguably similar) results for less money if they received the same 7 or 8 runs a game support that Marquis has in his career.
trs86
12/9/2009-11:35pm at 11:35 pm (UTC -4)
I disagree on all of those except for Davis, Garland, and Washburn. However, I don’t see any of those signing for less or much less than 1 year 8 million.
Colon has not been healthy enough to eat innings since 2005, you are better than that Grave. Contreras if he is not dead has only pitched 121 and 131 innings the last 2 years. Livan has not had and ERA+ of over 100 since 2005 and was at 71 and 76 the last 2 years, Odalis Perez sat out the season because no one wanted him after that contract debacle last year. Wellemyer seriously?
Again, to me comparing Marquis to some of these guys is like comparing Marquis to Lackey. Pointless. Marquis is in a much better class than most of these guys and that is why he will get paid more than these guys.
Also worth noting, Marquis has made less than his worth based on fangraphs for the last 3 years and last year was valued at 17.1 million.
trs86
12/10/2009-12:01am at 12:01 am (UTC -4)
And i also broke the blog so you could not respond. LOL.
I think I had one more point before it broke. Oh yeah, not that quality starts is something you should use for a 1-3 pitcher but Marquis did have 23 of those as well, even managed to pitch 2 complete games.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-12:30am at 12:30 am (UTC -4)
And you are better than saying “final point” then making one after that, then coming back to make another one after that. So I’ll add to my “final retort.”
You said wins are more important from back of the rotation starters and I say to that, Marquis is 11 games over .500 in his 10 year career due largely to incredible run support and good infield defense.
He’s keeping people in games because his team is scoring 7 or 8 runs for him. How that makes him so much more valuable than any other lump of human flesh that has the strength to climb a small hill and lob a sphere 60.5 feet is beyond me.
Included in fangraphs formula for computing value is wins, something Marquis gets more than his fair share of thanks to prodigious bats. If Marquis is in a much better class than the other people I mentioned it’s in part due to the fact that he’s in a much bigger class since his class includes his lineups which have been scoring incredibly high amount of runs for him.
He is 21 games over .500 in first halves in his career perhaps because teams realize “oh yeah, this is Jason Marquis” after which he is 10 games under for second halves when teams destroy him and his own teams demote him and leave him off playoff rosters year after year.
The Mets, when good recently, have had their pennant races come down to the last day of the season. Marquis had better win enough games in the first half to make sure the second half is irrelevant because he’s not likely to help them if they need him at the end as his history shows. For his career, his worst month is September.
He walks too many batters, doesn’t strike out enough batters, and relies too much on ground ball outs to be successful with Luis Castillo as his starting 2B combined with the uncertainty of Daniel Murphy at 1B.
As I said above, if the Mets replace Castillo with a positive defender I’m much more amenable to Marquis. Unfortunately even Omar Minaya admitted today that is unlikely.
His 2B since 2004:
2009 Clint Barmes, UZR/150 7.5
2008 Mark DeRosa, minus 15.9 (coincidence that this is his lowest win total year? I think not).
2007 Mark DeRosa, minus 1.3
2006 Aaron Miles, 2.9
2005 Mark Grudzielanek, 9.9
2004 Tony Womack, 4.9
Last year Castillo’s was minus 12.0, so I can only hope the 2010 Mets score as many runs for Marquis as the 2008 Cubs did (when they led the league in run support for him yet he managed only 11 wins, his lowest total since 2004, perhaps because of bad 2B defense), or that Castillo re-discovers his range.
CaseStreet
12/10/2009-1:12am at 1:12 am (UTC -4)
lol, trs can’t help himself. He has to get the last word.
grave are we stuck w/ Castillo at 2B? Any chance for Lopez at least?
It really seems that Omar’s been trying to move Castillo. If he does, I hope we get a good defender at 2B.
I’m not so worried about Murphy’s defense. He’s got the range down, just needs to improve getting the ball out of the dirt.