That headline is for you Fongy.
Back to the more important story here. It looks like according to the Fat Man (as I pointed out here:Market Comes Back to the Mets: Lackey, Bay and Holliday (Less Than Bay?) take that Matt) the Mets are ready to get into the big 3 sweepstakes and are starting their offer with Bay. No report yet on what that offer will be. What will be telling is if it is a good offer or not. If it is a low offer then it may just be a marketing ploy to get Lackey or Holliday to lessen their demands or in the eyes of the conspiracy theory minded Mets fans a way to please the crowd.
UPDATE: Ugh. Lets hope this part is not true: From Metsblog:
Former GM Jim Bowden said on Twitter that the Mets may offer a five-year contract to free-agent OF Jason Bay, as the Red Sox are holding out on a four-year deal.
UPDATE: 3:35 Rumor is that the offer is 4/65, slightly more than the Redsox offer of 4/60. Could a 5th year option be in the works?
204 comments
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
although listening to the Fat Man, he does make a great point about choosing Bay over Holliday. Bay has the power and the ability to play in a big market.
Holliday might not produce as much playing in the huge citi field and in NY.
trs86
12/10/2009-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
I agree on the ability to play in the big market part. Who knows how Holliday responds to that.
However, I will say this as pointed out on Metsblog. IF you could do this now and then stay in the Lackey market because you went cheaper here then you could really set yourself up for the CHANCE of Bay and Lackey.
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-1:46pm at 1:46 pm (UTC -4)
Bay and Lackey would be a great direction.
and as much as most people here hate this. Molina is still a tremendous upgrade over Omir Santos
trs86
12/10/2009-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe on Molina. Still maybe. I can’t say tremendous until I know the impact of his defense.
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-1:58pm at 1:58 pm (UTC -4)
well you cant expect Omir to repeat what he did next year. I mean Molina will get you double the power numbers, higher avg, OPS and probably OBP as well. he is better defensively and is great with the pitching staff.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:04pm at 2:04 pm (UTC -4)
No doubt that he is better on offense. How do we know he is great with a pitching staff? Can’t be the stealing numbers and the catcher numbers don’t support it either.
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
just based on experience alone. he has a good reputation and he has to be better than Omir…
trs86
12/10/2009-2:21pm at 2:21 pm (UTC -4)
Why does he HAVE to be better than Omir. I still don’t get it. Is he 5.5+ million a year better than Omir? Is he 12+ million total better than Omir or for that matter better than Barajas?
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-2:26pm at 2:26 pm (UTC -4)
Well, we know from the start that the Mets were not happy with how Santos handled the Mets pitching staff.
Have you heard such a complaint re: Molina? His reputation is quite the opposite.
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
Following on our Molina discussion in another topic, you pointed out that runners did not attempt to steal as much on Omir:
Santos had 50 attempts against in 680 innings. 1 every 13.6 innings.
Molina had 110 against 1042. 1 every 9.4 innings.
In 1042 innings, Santos would have had 76 attempts against at that rate.
Keep in mind there was no “book” of intel on Santos.
I don’t really view this as that big of a deal. And if Omir continues at 30%, who knows what will happen.
Also, Lincecum and Unit are among the worst at holding runners. Lincecum gave up 20 SBs in 25 attempts. That’s a big number and may have skewed Molina’s.
In only 22 games, runners went wild on Unit, stealing 19 times in 26 attempts.
By comparison, runners were 1-3 against Johan in 25 starts!
(I think I may be on to something here!)
trs86
12/10/2009-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, I just wonder if Molina’s reputation is that much better than say Barajas? Or if reputation is good enough to pay 6+ million more per season for.
I think honestly I would be fine with 4-5M and 1 year for Molina. It’s the 2/14 that is scaring me/
trs86
12/10/2009-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t you think that the amount of walks given up by Mets pitchers could also impact SB rates?
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-3:00pm at 3:00 pm (UTC -4)
2/14 scares me too.
I don’t really know anything about Barajas’ reputation. But as I said before, I’d be inclined to go with whichever was cheaper (though with Molina if close).
Increased walks is a red herring. If more runners are going to be on base then more runners are going to run. That’s not the catcher’s fault.
Of course, one of the reasons the Mets are interested in Molina is that they believe Molina will cut down the walks.
As I posted before, it is pretty clear that Molina was not only a victim of his own girth but also his staff’s inability to hold runners.
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
Further evidence that Lincecum and Unit were just as to blame as Molina:
Runners were just 11-20 stealing against Matt Cain.
Why would Molina have been competent when Cain pitched but not the others? Obviously, Lincecum and Unit have earned their own reps as being poor at holding runners/delivering quickly.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
So basically it was the Unit’s fault that Molina’s numbers tanked last year?
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
You’re not paying attention, are you?
Did you see above, Lincecum 20-25 against? Unit 27 attempts in only 22 games?
Perhaps teams were running on these two pitchers as much as they were on Molina given their reputations for holding runners?
This is not a novel concept.
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-3:10pm at 3:10 pm (UTC -4)
Magically, Molina could throw when Cain pitched?
Runners were also just 11-20 against Zito.
Make more sense now?
trs86
12/10/2009-3:12pm at 3:12 pm (UTC -4)
I am paying attention, just thinking that Lincecum was there the year before too. Of course the counter to that is perhaps the league reads better now.
What about Sanchez’s stats? That was one of the guys in the 7 steal debacle.
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-3:17pm at 3:17 pm (UTC -4)
Sanchez was assaulted. Runners were 24-29.
He has a long, slow delivery and is about as bright as Ollie Perez.
I’m not saying Molina has not declined or that he’s even still good.
I’m saying that he’s probably not as bad as the numbers suggest.
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-3:20pm at 3:20 pm (UTC -4)
And before someone tells me how good Molina’s backup, Eli Whiteside, performed, realize he caught Lincecum only once and Johnson for 13 batters.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
Is it possible his numbers are as bad as he is? Those numbers are so bad it’s not likely. But at his age are they likely to improve? Those trends that you showed were they similar the year before? I am just skeptical that he would not have similar SB issues with the Mets incredibly loopy staff. Not saying Omir would be better, just cheaper. LOL. I would still rather get Barajas IF Molina is going to take 2 years.
Kingman 26
12/10/2009-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
Molina’s defense, game-calling, and overall handling of pitchers might be precisely what this team needs.
He might also be an outstanding tutor to Thole in 2011.
He also will supply outstanding production if he hits 8th.
At this point, I think the anti-Molina stuff is getting tiresome and perhaps a tad silly.
The guy is a good player, with power, who has caught a LOT of good pitchers.
And Wanny’s points about the SF pitchers’ tremendous disparities in holding runners on is a great one.
Comparing Santos and Molina is about as meaningful and relevant as comparing Figgy and Marquis.
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
TRS:
If Molina is solely to blame and he’s as bad as the numbers suggest, please explain how he managed to be so proficient when Cain and Zito pitched while struggling against the guys notorious for being poor at holding runners.
The Mets staff might be loopy. But right off the top, you see that no one even attempts to run on Santana. Was that because Santana knows how to hold runners or because teams feared Brian Schneider and Omir Santos?
trs86
12/10/2009-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, Kingman. Perhaps you are right. I think the same for this discussion goes back to the same for Marquis. Marquis is probably better than Figgy but is he worth it at 3/30, most likely not. Molina is probably better than Santos but is he worth it at 2/14 most likely not.
trs86
12/10/2009-1:44pm at 1:44 pm (UTC -4)
Quick before the offer comes out. Predict the terms.
I say 4/64 with a 5th year option.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-2:04pm at 2:04 pm (UTC -4)
What was Omar’s offer to Lowe last year before the Braves swooped in and blew it away? Whatever that was, that’s my guess.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
3/42 I think.
dirtysanchez
12/10/2009-2:07pm at 2:07 pm (UTC -4)
for molina i say 2/20 was the offer
trs86
12/10/2009-2:09pm at 2:09 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, I hope you are very wrong.
I think it’s 1 for 7 with an option.
dirtysanchez
12/10/2009-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
I hope your right, im hearing alot about two years…..
CaseStreet
12/10/2009-1:44pm at 1:44 pm (UTC -4)
I was hoping for Lackey, though seems like Lackey is waiting on Halladay. So this could take a while.
Boras tried to diss Omar. Omar gives an offer to the non-Boras client.
Take that Boras.
Really, though, why not make an offer on Cameron?
trs86
12/10/2009-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
He might take it…. I would much rather have Bay than Cameron.
But that being said you are right on Lackey and Halladay. Halladay is holding Lackey hostage.
CaseStreet
12/10/2009-2:03pm at 2:03 pm (UTC -4)
Cameron is a much better overall player and costs half what Bay costs. We could spend that money on a SP or to improve elsewhere.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:07pm at 2:07 pm (UTC -4)
OK.
Lets see how many GM’s agree with you. Most likely the same ones who took Figgy each time he was available for free when the Mets released him over and over.
CaseStreet
12/10/2009-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
it’s about value trs. Marquis is better than Figgy and Bay is better than Cameron, but what they will get paid makes Figgy and Cameron better values.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
Are we the Pirates? Which one do we need more? Bay or Cameron? We need a middle of the order hitter. Cameron is not a middle of the order hitter. He makes the 7 spot better, Pagan makes the 7 spot better.
We need to bump either Maine or Perez out of the rotation (and sign Lackey or get another top of the rotation guy) and Marquis does that because of consistency. Figgy does not.
CaseStreet
12/10/2009-3:56pm at 3:56 pm (UTC -4)
“Are we the Pirates?”
This coming from the guy crying about not overpaying for Lackey. okay
At least Lackey is a legit #2 which this team actually needs. Not a “big” hitter.
fongy2
12/10/2009-2:15pm at 2:15 pm (UTC -4)
Huh? Case,you
are talking about Mike Cameron and
Jason Bay…
Right?
trs86
12/10/2009-2:18pm at 2:18 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah he had Figgy over Marquis last night. I think I am in Bizarro world.
One group says that we don’t spend enough and are penny pinchers, the next group says we should pick Figgy and Cameron over Marquis and Bay.
fongy2
12/10/2009-2:25pm at 2:25 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
Again I must defend myself from callous misrepresentation of my position.
I stand by Figgy at half a mil for 1 year being a better fit for the Mets than Marquis for roughly Wolf’s contract, which was my original point.
I don’t agree with “Cameron is a much better overall player than Bay” as a stand alone statement and look forward to Case elaborating on that point, especially considering Bay is 30 and Cammy 37.
Bay clearly wins the offensive categories apart from SB. Bay’s career OPS and OPS+ of .896 and 131 respectively blow away Cammy’s .788 and 107.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:37pm at 2:37 pm (UTC -4)
I know your position Grave and agree to an extent that more than 1 year guaranteed for Marquis and more than 8 million is too much. I think we disagree on that point but agree that Marquis is better than Figgy. I am not sure Case agrees with that point.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
OK cool. I always liked the comic “Bizzaro World” but I don’t think I live there
CaseStreet
12/10/2009-4:11pm at 4:11 pm (UTC -4)
Thursday, December 10 2009 at 2:28 pm
“it’s about value trs. Marquis is better than Figgy and Bay is better than Cameron, but what they will get paid makes Figgy and Cameron better values.”
more callous misrepresentation
CaseStreet
12/10/2009-2:26pm at 2:26 pm (UTC -4)
That’s nutty. If you think Cameron’s on the verge of collapse (he’s shown no signs of it) and you don’t trust defensive metrics (in this case, the conclusions are pretty obviously true), then you think that they’re similarly valuable. In reality, the odds are pretty good that Cameron is going to outperform Bay next season, just as he’s done in most every season recently, and he’s going to do it for far less money.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bay-vs-cameron
trs86
12/10/2009-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
Cameron is 37 years old.
CaseStreet
12/10/2009-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
So is Ibanez and he did great. Has Cameron shown he’s on a decline?
trs86
12/10/2009-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
That’s because Ibanez is a hitter. Are we saying Cameron is as good of a hitter as Ibanez?
If Beltran were gone and we needed a CF I get Cameron.
If we can’t afford a pitcher and have to go cheap in LF I get Cameron.
Neither of those at this point are true.
metsfan4decades
12/10/2009-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
Without looking up the stats, I seem to remember Ibaniz having a great first half, tailing off in the 2nd half, even more in Sep. Wound up he was injured and needed off season surgery for that injury.
I’d rather have Bay as first choice.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
From your prize article:
Bay is a better hitter – that much is clear.
The Mets need a hitter. If they wanted to go cheap and worry more about defense than hitting they could stick with Pagan.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:36pm at 2:36 pm (UTC -4)
Shoot Pagan was worth 12.7 million last year and cost .5. That’s a bargain, lets keep him instead. I think he will do well in LF behind Figgy.
CaseStreet
12/10/2009-2:53pm at 2:53 pm (UTC -4)
How do you compare pagan in 1 year where he had a unsustainable babip and will regress compared to cammy whose had a career of success avg 23 hr in past 3 seasons? There are people smafter than you. I’d imagine Dave cameron may be one of them.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:58pm at 2:58 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, easy there Case. So we should not have an opinion because the great Dave Cameron had one?
I just happen to disagree that they are a fit at all. To me Cameron in this lineup does about what Pagan does. Hit’s 6th or 7th.
To me comparing a 37 year old Cameron to a 31 year old Bay is like comparing Pagan to Cameron.
CaseStreet
12/10/2009-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
Oh so now they need a big hitter. So I guess without bay or holliday we are doomed. Cameron laroche and molina aren’t enough of an upgrade?
trs86
12/10/2009-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, IF they go that route I think we could be OK. But again, who says that they are even interested in LaRoche?
trs86
12/10/2009-3:01pm at 3:01 pm (UTC -4)
That’s like saying without Lackey we are doomed.
But why skimp on LF?
I am not sure that LaRoche Cameron is better than Murphy Bay and maybe more expensive. But yeah that could work.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-2:46pm at 2:46 pm (UTC -4)
I remember this article now. They make some interesting points, many of which I agree with.
Depending on how much faith one puts in sabermetrics I think the author’s case that Cameron is the better player overall (O & D) is supportable.
The point about the different skillsets and whether Cameron’s will or will not decline at his age is one I am more skeptical of. How many speed guys keep that speed into their late 30s? I ask not to make a point but because I genuinely don’t know. It seems noteworthy that Bay stole 13 bases in 2009, Cammy just 7.
In the end the author’s point is really a hypothesis, and only through the next season(s) will it be proven right or wrong.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:52pm at 2:52 pm (UTC -4)
I think it goes back to what their value is to the Mets in my opinion. To ME this looks much better
Reyes, Castillo, Beltran, Bay, Wright, Frenchy, Murphy, Molina
looks better than
Reyes, Castillo, Beltran, Wright, Cameron, Frenchy, Murphy, Molina.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-3:15pm at 3:15 pm (UTC -4)
I agree the former lineup “looks better” and I think strictly as an offense it is better, especially considering Bay’s superior BA, OBP & SLG, both over their entire careers and just over the last 3 seasons.
But where fangraphs is making their point is in the defense and the runs given up. I think that becomes more of a noteworthy issue in Citi Field for 81 games where he has a lot of ground to cover as opposed to Fenway Park where he gets to essentially just stand with his back to a wall.
Bay has been a negative defender in LF every year of his career except 1 (2006).
Cameron has no LF play to go on (3 games total in career) but as a CF has been a positive defender overall, despite negative stats in 2006 & 2007, and he was positive in his most recent seasons of 2008 & 2009.
Apparently according to the defensive metrics he saved so many more runs than Bay did on defense he therefore becomes more valuable. I can’t just discount that.
But yes as I said at the top of the comment, offense alone, lineup alone, Bay is the one to get. Is that enough? Is it OK to just disregard defense? I don’t think it is wise.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:20pm at 3:20 pm (UTC -4)
I think when it’s LF and Beltran and Frenchy in the OF you can afford to lose some defense when you need offense badly. However, I wonder if Cameron’s “worth” is the same if he were compared with other LF instead? Saying that I don’t know if his Dollar Value on fangraphs is attached to what other CF’s are doing and making? Also, what would the Mets do in 2010? Sign Cameron for 10 million at 38? Hope that Fmart or Davis can take over? Find another stop gap?
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
I think Grave’s point is that a run saved is as good as a run scored.
Under that theory, whichever guy accounts for the best +/- is the way to go.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
I assume you mean 2011.
I look at that flexibility as a benefit. Being tied to Bay through 2015 could be perceived as a detriment just as you’re suggesting the team’s needing to fill LF again next year could be.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-3:28pm at 3:28 pm (UTC -4)
Wanny yes, it’s not so much my point but the one in the fangraphs article linked to somewhere in this thread in which they determine Cameron is “the better overall player” and “likely to continue to be that” in 2010.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:28pm at 3:28 pm (UTC -4)
My problem is it is still in my mind much easier to tell how many runs a guy produces than it is how many he saves. Not getting in that debate today.
I will stick to my point that Bay for 4/60+ is better for this team next year and in the long-run than Cameron for 1/10.
whataputz
12/10/2009-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
Complain complain complain..Jason Bay hit 36 hr’s and played for a winning team. Bring him in. Omar will still get a pitcher..you watch.
dirtysanchez
12/10/2009-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
Its the defense im worried about….those are some deep lanes in citi field.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:10pm at 2:10 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe, I think he will be fine.
fongy2
12/10/2009-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
If Omar signed Bay and Lackey,I’d
give him the Molina signing and figure out a way to defend it for
him myself! As the ’09 season concluded I looked again at the potential FAs and Immediately I.D.d
Bay and Lackey as the guys I would
want in a best case scenario.
I know Bay isn’t great defensively BUT he isn’t terrible either and I
think his usual numbers are much more likely than Holliday getting
his.Again,Holliday worries me…ALOT.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
Holliday does not WORRY me that much in a vacuum of comparing him to Bay. However, if he cost say 40 million more he worries me a lot.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
OK either I can’t read, get confused or this is wrong:
Metsblog
Title: News: Josh Thole is staying in Venezuela
In his exhaustive blog post for ESPN.com, Buster Olney writes:
“Josh Thole, who is currently playing in the Venezuelan league with the Leones de Caracas, will not return to the team. Thole, who leads the league in hitting decided to do this to begin prepping himself to fight for a job with the Mets in the spring.â€
So he is leaving the team but staying in Venezuela? Odd for a kid from Breese, IL.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-2:16pm at 2:16 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe he likes warm weather and brunettes.
fongy2
12/10/2009-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
My friend unless you’ve been there….
You have NO IDEA.
W/O question the greatest number of fine women I’ve ever
seen in my life
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-2:37pm at 2:37 pm (UTC -4)
I have never been there so I can’t speak first hand about it, but I have ‘visited the women of South America’ over the internet, ahem, and agree they are indeed fine as a group. Ay, carumba!
fongy2
12/10/2009-2:43pm at 2:43 pm (UTC -4)
I spent
most of the summer of’02
there,
my neck
still hurts!
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
everyone knows there are only two ways to injure a neck… one is a car accident…
Kingman 26
12/10/2009-3:28pm at 3:28 pm (UTC -4)
Haha!! Thank you Mr. David!
fongy2
12/10/2009-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
No MVAs that summer Counselor!
Kingman 26
12/10/2009-3:29pm at 3:29 pm (UTC -4)
Fong, you been to Las Vegas in the last few years? The eye candy there is beyond belief–all ages, races, colors, creeds, etc.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-2:13pm at 2:13 pm (UTC -4)
Fat man is speaking about some HR charts he’s been shown which suggest Bay’s power is in the “hard pull down the line” category whereas Holliday’s is more spray oriented, and that therefore Bay’s power is more likely to translate well in Citi Field than Holliday’s. Interesting point.
Before I heard him say that I was going to ask about that, with the understanding that while the Green Monster is high (37 feet) it is also shallow, actually shorter than marked. It is marked 310 feet I believe but some MIT students measured it for a project and it’s actually 298 feet. MLB rules require at least 300 feet but they look the other way because of the impracticality of adjusting Fenway to make it fit, and because of the wall height. Why they mark it incorrectly I don’t know, for show I guess.
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-2:29pm at 2:29 pm (UTC -4)
An all fields line drive hitter like Holliday would probably hit a lot of extra base hits in the gaps of Citifield (see Dan Murphy).
dirtysanchez
12/10/2009-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
Exactly….
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with you. Even David Wright still had 39 doubles. I worry though that the Mets may be swayed by a desire for HR specifically over XBH in general.
Perhaps (just supposition on my part) they are scarred by both the perception of Citi Field being cavernous (for all but Mark Reynolds and Chase Utley) as well as being the only team in MLB to have under 100 HR as a team last year.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:26pm at 3:26 pm (UTC -4)
I do remember that your team HR post showed that we had to have improvement in our overall HR. Where I argue is that having 3 with 10 is the same as having 1 with 30. It’s kind of like the reverse of having 3 #3′s is better than having a #1.
I think there needs to be one hitter that we can put in the middle of the order. No we are not doomed if we don’t get that player. However, I think that when you don’t have that one hitter who can turn the game around it makes others press.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-3:34pm at 3:34 pm (UTC -4)
What my post on the HR total was getting at was that the Mets need to have so many HR added to just barely equal the lowest total that a playoff team from the NL has had in each of the last 3 years that maybe they should instead of trying to add so many HR they should instead concentrate on defense and pitching.
The conclusion I drew in my post was that unless the Mets were signing a LF who was likely to hit 50 HR, as a team they were not going to get enough (even with the return of the injured) from the other positions on the field to reach that lowest playoff level.
On that note, if the Mets add Molina and he hits 20 HR, then the Mets will “only” need their new LF to hit 42 HR.
So unless they are also adding a HR hitting 1B and 2B to improve over the hypothesis that they’ll get 16 from Murphy at 1B and 1 from Castillo at 2B, they still won’t have enough even with all healthy, Molina and Bay.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:39pm at 3:39 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, but closer.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, they’ll be closer, on that we can agree.
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-2:34pm at 2:34 pm (UTC -4)
i’d be worried that Holliday would have a drop in power numbers where as Bay is pretty much a sure fire 30+ HR hitter.
i think we really need the power numbers over the batting average
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/10/2009-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t understand the offer to Bay. Does this mean that the Mets are willing to get BOTH Bay and Lackey?
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
It may be that prefer Bay first. I’d be surprised if they get more than one of the big 3 but I am starting to believe they could at least get one done.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/10/2009-2:36pm at 2:36 pm (UTC -4)
But that would be slightly contradicting all the reports that came out yesterday on Lackey. I thought the Mets were making a big push on Lackey.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:40pm at 2:40 pm (UTC -4)
Perhaps they are. We will have to wait and find out what the Bay offer is. It could be a low ball offer or perhaps they think they can get both.
fongy2
12/10/2009-2:32pm at 2:32 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll drink to that!
trs86
12/10/2009-2:34pm at 2:34 pm (UTC -4)
Here is an idea on Mattsblog, seems actually rational so I chose to print frame.
Could the Mets offer Bay a slightly below market contract with a soft deadline (but deadline none the less) to try and force Boston to make a move?
whataputz
12/10/2009-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
Honsetly, thinking about this, I really don’t get the hate for Omar. Okay, they brought him in and he signed Beltran and Pedro in his first off season. We got some credibility and starting to inch towards a team with hope. He kept Reyes and wright, and in the next offseason got Wagner and Gado. In his 2nd year here, he had already put together a World Series Caliber team. Should have would have, whatever, bottom line is in two years he got a team that even without their 1 and 3 pitchers were a couple of innings away from a world series birth. In ’07 he screwed up. He messed up with Alou, who was tremendous when healthy and made the dumb Bell trade. Still he kept most of the team in tact, and they just choked in 07. Next offseason he made one of the greatest trades in the franchises history. He brought in the best pitcher in the game for nothing. Next offseason he sured up the bullpen by bringing in two dominant closers. Stuff happens, not everything works out the way it should. The biggest mistake he ever made was not replacing Floyd. Outside of this, I see little reason why he is the scapegoat of our failures.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:48pm at 2:48 pm (UTC -4)
Because he is the GM and ultimately if the owners supply you with the most money then you should have the best team. Sure excuses come into play and I don’t think he is terrible at all but when you are GM of a NY team and don’t get the job done you will face the wrath of many.
Kingman 26
12/10/2009-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
Great, great post, I agree 100%.
Didn’t we used to disagree on Metsblog?
What happened?
khmustache
12/10/2009-2:46pm at 2:46 pm (UTC -4)
seems foolish to me… i wouldn’t make a move on bay until we had 9 catchers locked up…
metro
12/10/2009-2:47pm at 2:47 pm (UTC -4)
Mets sign Clint Everts, former #1 pick (5th overall)
Great in the minors this year as a reliever 60 innings 49 hits 68 k’s 1.65 era, potential 2nd lefty in the pen.
trs86
12/10/2009-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting that at 25 it was still in Single and Double A for the Nats.
But even more interesting is that “The Mets have signed former first-round pick pitcher Clint Everets, who was pursued by 15 clubs at winter meetings” 15 other clubs wanted him?
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
He reached AAA last year. And it is only his second year since he was converted to full-time relief.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:31pm at 3:31 pm (UTC -4)
You are right I missed his 10 innings in AAA.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:32pm at 3:32 pm (UTC -4)
I like the signing but seems strange so many wanted him. In those 10 AAA innings his WHIP was 2.25.
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-9:09pm at 9:09 pm (UTC -4)
I doubt any team based its assessment on ten innings.
metro
12/10/2009-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
I meant he was strong vs. lefties not that he was lefty
whataputz
12/10/2009-2:51pm at 2:51 pm (UTC -4)
Also, if the Cubs so desperately want to rid themselves of Bradley. Then why not swap him for Castillo, sign Hudson, sign Delgado, you add alot of pop, sure up some infield defense at second, bring in some new faces, and have money to add a pitcher still. And if Bradley fails, pagan is not too shabby a fourth outfielder. Say what you want about Bradley, but he’s got talent. I know it would be his 25th chance, but we need both hitting and pitching, and this might be a way we can add both.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
I mentioned this earlier in the day that IF we could get Soto in the deal and some cash I would send Redding and Castillo.
stickguy
12/10/2009-3:29pm at 3:29 pm (UTC -4)
If you can get soto and bradley for those 2, I will swing out to Chicago and make the delivery myself. And I will even pick up the tolls.
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-3:31pm at 3:31 pm (UTC -4)
I guess Chicago doesn’t have a choice in the matter.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:33pm at 3:33 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, nope.
Of course they do. If they don’t take it then neither of us get what we want. We may have to throw in another prospect there or it may not work at all.
metsfan4decades
12/10/2009-2:52pm at 2:52 pm (UTC -4)
If the plan here is to go after Bay instead of Holliday, thereby saving some $$ to go all in on Lackey, and he pulls it off…..well, I’ll be impressed.
whataputz
12/10/2009-2:53pm at 2:53 pm (UTC -4)
Even if he’s just trying to force Boston to make a move, it’s smart. Offering him a contract can’t hurt, so why not?
metsfan4decades
12/10/2009-2:57pm at 2:57 pm (UTC -4)
Very true.
metro
12/10/2009-3:01pm at 3:01 pm (UTC -4)
Mets to attend Aroldis Chapman workout on Tuesday
metro
12/10/2009-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
Sherman reporting its 4 years 60+ (why bother offering what the Sox did and he rejected?)
trs86
12/10/2009-3:26pm at 3:26 pm (UTC -4)
maybe the “+”?
metro
12/10/2009-3:33pm at 3:33 pm (UTC -4)
4 years 65 million, so 5 million more than the Sox and clearly not enough over 4 years (1.25 per to steal Bay) but a fair opening offer
trs86
12/10/2009-3:34pm at 3:34 pm (UTC -4)
Perhaps it is enough, we don’t know. But you are right, nice opening offer.
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-3:57pm at 3:57 pm (UTC -4)
i doubt he would accept this but its a serious offer nonetheless…
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
They’ll probably have to add a 5th year.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-3:45pm at 3:45 pm (UTC -4)
OK, 5 years, 65 million
Kingman 26
12/10/2009-3:39pm at 3:39 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, and again, thanks for the info.
metro
12/10/2009-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
One writer says the “word is” the sox offer is actually 12-13 per over 5 years, meaning the Mets offer is actually MUCH larger per.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
Wow! I had read somewhere that the Sox initial, rejected offer was 4/$60. If it was 5/$60 that’s, well, less. But it is still a raise over the $7.8 mil he made last year.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:50pm at 3:50 pm (UTC -4)
Honestly I have been living in a hole and was shocked to see how little Bay has made for his career. Damn Pirates.
metro
12/10/2009-3:56pm at 3:56 pm (UTC -4)
Apparently Francessa (I’m at work) confirmed on the show that the Sox offer was 60 for 5 years and the Mets is 4 for 65. So that’s what? 3.25 more per year the Mets offer?
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-4:00pm at 4:00 pm (UTC -4)
4.25
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-5:45pm at 5:45 pm (UTC -4)
I’d settle for the difference.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:46pm at 3:46 pm (UTC -4)
Hmmm something to think about. Would Bay take a backloaded contract IF the 5th year option was easily attainable or a high buyout and the overall money was slightly more? Thus allowing the Mets to sign Lackey?
Say Bay gets 12, 16, 18, 19, 10 million option, 3 million buyout.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:49pm at 3:49 pm (UTC -4)
I have another question. Why the heck hasn’t MLBTR picked this up yet? It makes me suspicious when a story this big is happening that they have said nothing.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-3:50pm at 3:50 pm (UTC -4)
They’re probably busy arguing with the source over the way they phrased it in their tweet.
trs86
12/10/2009-3:51pm at 3:51 pm (UTC -4)
Touche, but to me they are still the best spot for gathering of info.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-3:58pm at 3:58 pm (UTC -4)
They are great at gathering and dispensing, but one person’s gathering is another person’s stealing, and I am offended by what I perceive as their hypocrisy about it.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-4:04pm at 4:04 pm (UTC -4)
And by the way, that was very crafty what you did in the comments over there yesterday morning. You got at least one new member here specifically because of that.
metsfan4decades
12/10/2009-4:06pm at 4:06 pm (UTC -4)
According to Mattsblog, Heyman is reporting that 4 yrs and 65 mil.
Heyman is scheduled to be on WFAN now…
dirtysanchez
12/10/2009-4:21pm at 4:21 pm (UTC -4)
thats a half/ass attempt if you ask me. Boston made a similar one and was rejected
CaseStreet
12/10/2009-4:08pm at 4:08 pm (UTC -4)
because they have to see it and don’t pick up stories that someone heard over the air. they need to see a story or a transcript.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-4:16pm at 4:16 pm (UTC -4)
With apologies in advance to Kingman for daring to quote Heyman, on the FAN he says:
Bay coming down to Mets, Red Sox and Angels
Mets with no ‘realistic’ chance at Halladay or Lackey
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/10/2009-4:24pm at 4:24 pm (UTC -4)
Did he really say Mets with no ‘realistic’ chance at Lackey? I thought he was just talking about Halladay.
Kingman 26
12/10/2009-4:40pm at 4:40 pm (UTC -4)
LOL!
I do realize that Heyman is in fact a professional baseball insider and I am not.
I am rational enough to understand that!
I do agree that Lackey is going to the Angels or Mariners, where he would be a fine compliment to King Felix, until the M’s cannot afford his zillion dollar extension and Omar trades for him….
metsfan4decades
12/10/2009-4:21pm at 4:21 pm (UTC -4)
Heyman reporting he doesn’t see the Mets in on the Lackey sweepstakes.
He says Seattle are the big suitors there, they’ve got big $$ coming off the books and he seems them paying the 100Mil being reported for Lackey.
100 Million? Dang, I wanted Lackey but that’s steep.
Hard to listen to this interview though b/c between the two of them, the Yankee love is making me just a little bit sick….
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/10/2009-4:23pm at 4:23 pm (UTC -4)
It looks like load of non-tender players will come out next week. One guy that was predicted to be non-tender was Ryan Garko. I know he’s not the best defensive guy out there, but I think he’d be a great fit for the Mets platooning with Murphy and will be cheaper than Delgado.
His numbers against RHP .313 .392 .495 .887 in 422 AB.
IF the Indians non-tender him, Mets should jump at him.
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-4:34pm at 4:34 pm (UTC -4)
this where is I criticize Omar the most. There are plenty of bargains that he passes up on. I hope he takes advantage of some of these discounts even if its just to solidify the bench.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/10/2009-5:16pm at 5:16 pm (UTC -4)
Well the non-tenders have not come out yet. We don’t know who’s available or not through non-tender. But I think Omar should also explore trading for guys like Garko.
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-5:37pm at 5:37 pm (UTC -4)
thats true but if you look at the list on MLBTR there are some enticing names:
Jeremy Accardo
Alfredo Amezaga
Brian Anderson
Garrett Atkins
Jose Bautista
Taylor Buchholz
John Buck
Dave Bush
Santiago Casilla
Kevin Correia
Neal Cotts
Jack Cust
Mike Fontenot
Ryan Garko
Chad Gaudin
Jody Gerut
Jonny Gomes
Gabe Gross
Conor Jackson
Bobby Jenks
Kelly Johnson
Logan Kensing
Ryan Langerhans
John Maine
Andy Marte
Seth McClung
Brandon Medders
Sergio Mitre
Dioner Navarro
Scott Olsen
Tim Redding
Jeremy Reed
Jason Repko
Cory Sullivan
Brian Tallet
Doug Waechter
Chien-Ming Wang
I mean I wouldnt give up any top prospects but there are plenty of guys on that list who would easily make the club going north…
metsfan4decades
12/10/2009-4:24pm at 4:24 pm (UTC -4)
Mike F. reporting Mets are going to look at Delgado play and give him a chance….
Otherwise, they’re discussing a Nady/Murphy platoon? Can’t say I care for that. For the most part, I’m not a big fan of platoons and even more so with Jerry as manager.
metfreak
12/10/2009-4:25pm at 4:25 pm (UTC -4)
I would be surprise if Bay takes this deal I just hope Omar doesn’t make it a take it or leave it offer .I am dying for Omar to prove me wrong and bring in a big bat and a real #2
fongy2
12/10/2009-4:35pm at 4:35 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed! I am surprised by the
amount although I guess I shouldn’t be with these “responsible” owners in
baseball STILL throwin’ money
around like Congress.
Bay and his people better give this some very strong consideration. If the RedSox
feel Holliday’s better and with this offer they(The Sox)
may just say, “hell lets focus
on Holliday”. Mes think except for them(The Sox), The
Angels are the only other team which could could close
to spending this type of cash.
prismo
12/10/2009-5:39pm at 5:39 pm (UTC -4)
TRS I’m surprised in you. We should start calling you “negative Nancy”!
If Omar goes out and gets both Bay and Lackey, and you’re still complaining about Bay’s fifth year, then it could come down to fisticuffs between us.
fongy2
12/10/2009-5:47pm at 5:47 pm (UTC -4)
Gotcha back Prismo!
If it takes 5yrs to get both
Bay and Lackey, so be it.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-5:58pm at 5:58 pm (UTC -4)
Since I’ve been arguing (debating) quite a bit with TRS recently I feel it’s only fair if I jump in here and ask, where did TRS complain about Bay’s 5th year? I don’t recall it.
I do recall discussing the merits of Mike Cameron versus Jason Bay with TRS and in that I took the position that a 5 year deal for Bay could be more detrimental (could be, not would be) to the Mets than a 1 year deal for Cameron, but that’s the only context I can think of the 5 years for Bay being portrayed as bad. So blame me, or am I missing something he said?
prismo
12/10/2009-6:01pm at 6:01 pm (UTC -4)
In the most obvious place possible of course! The post itself!
“Ugh. Lets hope this part is not true: From Metsblog:
Former GM Jim Bowden said on Twitter that the Mets may offer a five-year contract to free-agent OF Jason Bay, as the Red Sox are holding out on a four-year deal.”
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-6:06pm at 6:06 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, duh. Sorry. I take back my weak defense of TRS in that case. 8)
fongy2
12/10/2009-6:07pm at 6:07 pm (UTC -4)
Alright, I got your
bad too!
Hey!, why not, I’m big!
Kingman 26
12/10/2009-6:18pm at 6:18 pm (UTC -4)
Hey I am big too–together, we can rid the world of people who root for the Yankees in the WS!!
metsfan4decades
12/10/2009-6:36pm at 6:36 pm (UTC -4)
LOL. I’ll never admit to rooting for the Yankees. I stand on record as just rooting against the Phils….
fongy2
12/10/2009-6:52pm at 6:52 pm (UTC -4)
$ decades of listing to the pomp of Yankee fans and you didn’t root against them? Hard for this 3 and a half decade fan to understand.Thats all I’ll say about the matter.
trs86
12/10/2009-10:05pm at 10:05 pm (UTC -4)
Pick on me when I am not here huh? LOL.
When I thought the money was 16 million a year I don’t like 5 years because I don’t think we have to and that’s a long time for Bay. I just don’t see the Redsox offering more than 4/65 honestly but if they do I would rather offer say 4/69 than go 5 years. I would be ok with an option year even with a large buyout.
metsfan4decades
12/10/2009-5:46pm at 5:46 pm (UTC -4)
‘Earlier tonight on ESPN News, Peter Gammons said he still believes free-agent OF Jason Bay will end up re-signing with the Red Sox, as the Mets will not be able to top their final offer.’
prismo
12/10/2009-5:49pm at 5:49 pm (UTC -4)
Gammons is a Red Sox fan. ‘Nuff said!
fongy2
12/10/2009-6:09pm at 6:09 pm (UTC -4)
Love Gammons despite the Redsox bias BUT
he should have wrote
“Mets may not be WILLING” Big diff b/t
being “able to” and
“willing to”!
metsfan4decades
12/10/2009-5:49pm at 5:49 pm (UTC -4)
SNY’s Hot Stove tonight will feature Gary Cohen among others who include, Heyman (he’s certainly making the rounds today), Carlin and Alex Cora.
I’m interested to hear what Gary has to say.
metsfan4decades
12/10/2009-5:49pm at 5:49 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, and Carlin interview with Omar and Jerry as well.
Ought to be interesting…..
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-5:51pm at 5:51 pm (UTC -4)
Bay has really been abysmal in LF the last three years according to UZR/150: -11.4, -18.2 and -11.2, respectively.
I think it is a valid to question whether he will be able to play LF a few years from now.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-6:04pm at 6:04 pm (UTC -4)
Precisely. It’s based on how bad Bay has been in LF that fangraphs dared to postulate that Cameron is the better overall player. The only question I have in that context though is, I’m not sure how being one specific OF (LF, CF or RF) translates, and Cameron has only 3 games in LF in his career to look at.
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-6:14pm at 6:14 pm (UTC -4)
Cameron obviously grades out as better than average in CF. In RF he generated a + UZR in his only measured season with the Mets, though it was only +1.9.
It’s probably not unreasonable to expect his defensive value to slip some but I wouldn’t expect it to slip to Bay’s level.
The real question is whether it slips enough to no longer outweigh Bay’s offensive advantage.
I’d be happier than I am now with either of them. But if we’re not going to get Lackey then I don’t feel the need to put the financial difference between Bay and Cameron into the Wilpon’s pocket.
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-7:45pm at 7:45 pm (UTC -4)
the concern i have is that we had absolutely no power last season. With that in mind I cant except Cameron to put up 20+ HR in our ballpark.
Bay, on the other hand, should easily get 28+ HR. Ill take the worse defense for the power hitter…
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-7:51pm at 7:51 pm (UTC -4)
So you don’t believe in the idea that Bay would hit more home runs than Cameron of course, but give up even more runs than he creates offensively with his bad defense?
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-7:59pm at 7:59 pm (UTC -4)
I believe that after factoring in defense, Bay’s power numbers are still make him much more valuable.
also Bay hasn’t committed an error since 2007 so its not like we are putting some lame duck out there like Murphy.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-8:02pm at 8:02 pm (UTC -4)
It’s not just about errors, it’s about the total defensive package combined with the total offensive package.
Have you read this? If nothing else it makes you think:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bay-vs-cameron
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-8:15pm at 8:15 pm (UTC -4)
i do not believe in that assesment and I will tell you why.
How many times does the ball get to hit to LF per game? and how many of those balls are tough plays that a better fielder would have gotten??? and how many of those balls get hit where an actual run occurs or will occur in the future as a result of worse fielder???
Also Murphy led the team in HR with 12. Mike Cameron will most likely hit around 15 HR next season if he played here. Jason Bay will probably double that…
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-8:27pm at 8:27 pm (UTC -4)
That’s fair, I certainly can’t make you believe it.
It’s not like the author is God and the words are the scriptures or anything, it’s really more of a hypothesis based on a combination of actual science and some subjective analysis, at least that’s the way I see it.
I would only say, they factor how many times the ball gets hit to the LF in their formula and then rate different LFs accordingly. Of the 13 LF that played enough to qualify, Bay was ranked 8th, but only 5 LFs played well enough to actually prevent runs and Bay was not one of them.
I’m somewhat skeptical of it because it’s like the strike zone, we know what it’s supposed to be but it gets interpreted by different people different ways.
But I believe in the basic idea and I think the analysis is pretty close to reality, close enough to make me pause when stats like UZR show me that a guy is a negative defender, like Bay is.
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-9:13pm at 9:13 pm (UTC -4)
i just cant reason that defensive range is that important enough (in LF) to make you prefer a guy with inferior offensive numbers…
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-9:43pm at 9:43 pm (UTC -4)
That’s fair. I think it’s perfectly reasonable to be skeptical about it, it’s not like other things where you can “check the work.”
I can only say I believe it more than you apparently do and in that belief I am concerned that his defense will lessen the positive impact his offense will have.
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-9:55pm at 9:55 pm (UTC -4)
i agree that his defense might have a negative impact in some fashion but no way that it makes such an impact that it costs the team 50+ runs…
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-10:24pm at 10:24 pm (UTC -4)
Now I’m just confused. I’m not sure where 50 runs is coming from.
Basically the fangraphs guys are suggesting that in 600 plate appearances Jason Bay offensively will produce 28 runs more than an average LF.
They are saying defensively he will allow 8 runs more than an average LF, so overall he will be worth 20 runs more than an average LF.
About Cameron they say offensively he will produce 13 runs more than an average CF.
Defensively he will save 6 runs more than an average CF, so he will be 19 runs better than an average CF.
But, they add that an average CF saves 10 more runs than an average LF, so therefore Cameron will be worth 29 runs, 9 runs more than Bay.
If I understand the formula, those 9 runs that they think Cameron will be better than Bay will equal between 1 and 2 wins for the team.
So they are saying that Cameron will contribute 2 more wins to the team than Bay will.
On top of that, Cameron will get a contract that is shorter and smaller in dollars than Bay.
So if you believe what they’re saying, Cameron is slightly better in actual performance (offense and defense combined), but far better in terms of what you have to pay to get it.
oleosmirf
12/10/2009-10:40pm at 10:40 pm (UTC -4)
b.c Mike Cameron had 70 RBIs last season and Jason Bay had 119 RBI. That is 49 runs.
I also expect Cameron and Bay to have worse numbers as a Met but for Cameron’s numbers to drop more…
prismo
12/10/2009-10:51pm at 10:51 pm (UTC -4)
Firstly, Cameron wouldn’t be playing CF for the Mets, so stats related to that don’t matter.
But speaking of CF, Ellsbury had an UZR of -18 last season. Beltran, in an injured off year, had an UZR of -4. Beltran can cover a lot of ground, and I would suspect this would help Bay’s defensive metrics in LF.
trs86
12/11/2009-7:31am at 7:31 am (UTC -4)
See bottom for response.
Kingman 26
12/10/2009-8:04pm at 8:04 pm (UTC -4)
Bay made 4 errors in 2008.
None in 2009 though, and 15 assists.
He cannot be that bad.
prismo
12/10/2009-8:05pm at 8:05 pm (UTC -4)
Everyone saw what Murphy looked like in the OF last year and when they hear an outfielder is “bad”, that’s the first thing that comes to mind.
Thing is, Bay isn’t going to drop balls and trip over his own feet. His weakness is his range. I wonder how much Beltran could make up for that though.
fongy2
12/10/2009-6:12pm at 6:12 pm (UTC -4)
If getting Bay and Lackey meant a
Championship in the next year or two,
I’ll deal with the pain in year 4 or 5. I’m used to it. I’m not as use to
the glory felt b/c my team wins the
World Series, so I’d take the trade-off.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-6:23pm at 6:23 pm (UTC -4)
I hear that. The best comparison I have isn’t a terribly good one (because I’m not feeling regret over long term contracts), but it is that as a NY football Giants fan, I am holding up remarkably well dealing with the very realistic possibility that they won’t make the playoffs this year by reminding myself they won the Super Bowl two years ago.
Kingman 26
12/10/2009-6:30pm at 6:30 pm (UTC -4)
This week is everything…if they beat the Eagles, they are going to make it…
metsfan4decades
12/10/2009-6:41pm at 6:41 pm (UTC -4)
And really, anything can happen in those 4-5 years. Just may be that we hold onto FMart, he finally develops into that corner OF we hoped he’d be and we can then trade Bay if his defense is that bad, even if we have to eat some money ’cause FMart will be cheap for awhile.
And that’s just one example. Not saying it would happen. Just pointing out that 4-5 years there could be scenarios that would negate the negative of a possible decline for Bay even further in defense….
fongy2
12/10/2009-6:50pm at 6:50 pm (UTC -4)
Collective bargaining agreement is up after
the 2011 season AND
the Mayan calendar ends in 2012 so who knows if they’ll even
be baseball and/or if
we’ll even be here to
argue about it.
If it takes a 5th yr to get Bay(and maybe
Lackey) you do it!
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-6:56pm at 6:56 pm (UTC -4)
I agree. I don’t fear long term contracts nearly as much as I fear back loading them. I would much rather sign someone to a hypothetical 5 year, $50 million contract that is $10 million each year instead of $8, 9, 10, 11, 12 or something like that.
As bad as some think Castillo’s contract is, imagine if it had been $4, 5, 7, 8 instead of $6 each year. The Blue Jays really suffer from bad back loaded contracts.
fongy2
12/10/2009-7:11pm at 7:11 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed Heb!
stickguy
12/10/2009-7:09pm at 7:09 pm (UTC -4)
MF4D raises a really good point about players and contract length.
If you can get an OF on a reasonable $/yr deal, and toward the end they are too detrimental playing D, you can always trade them for the last year or 2 to an AL team (if the bat is still there).
Sometimes, you have to look at it as buying the first 2-3 peak years, and having to take the last 1-2 risky ones as part of the cost.
At least with an OF, you hope the cost is they can’t Play the OF anymore but can still DH, as opposed to a SP that just can’t pitch at all!
Maybe they get Bay for 4/64, with a reasonably attainable 5th year optin, that does cover the Mets in case he comepletely falls apart?
The D does scare me though. I was really hoping for a ++ defender out there.
Who knows, In another year, if F Mart takes over for Frenchy, and Beltran still has his wheels, they can cover 3/4 of the OF, and just leave Bay with a little slice over by the LF line!
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-7:32pm at 7:32 pm (UTC -4)
On one hand I think, well they’d better keep Pagan around for late inning defense. But then I realize, the money they’re going to give Bay, he’s not coming out of the game.
Assuming health (I know, hard to do with this team) the backup OF(s) aren’t going to play much in 2010.
wannybackstra
12/10/2009-9:01pm at 9:01 pm (UTC -4)
They may play plenty in RF if Francoeur reverts to his Atlanta form and continues to be close to useless against RH pitchers.
gipperpdx
12/10/2009-7:22pm at 7:22 pm (UTC -4)
Bay, Bengie, and then go for Lackey….sounds like a plan to me. Keep the prospects for a deadline trade.
Beltran better have his wheels at 100% though with Bay in left.
metsfan4decades
12/10/2009-7:23pm at 7:23 pm (UTC -4)
Well, per Lennon’s interview on Hot Stove tonight, he at least, believes the Mets are still in on Lackey.
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-7:28pm at 7:28 pm (UTC -4)
That is good news and thank you for noting it here. DirecTV is here installing updated receiver and upgrading wires, I have no TV. Poor guy has been mostly outside, crawling around under our deck, for 3 1/2 hours, and it’s 30 degrees out (feels like 19 per Weather.com).
metsfan4decades
12/10/2009-8:07pm at 8:07 pm (UTC -4)
That does not sound like fun for that guy. Then again, in today’s economy, he might be thinking he’s lucky just to have a job.
It’s windy and cold down here at the Jersey Shore as well. Welcome to winter…..
Actually, Lennon sounded pretty positive the Mets plan is to extend an offer to Lackey. Whether or not that trumps other teams like Seattle is yet to be seen.
prismo
12/10/2009-7:33pm at 7:33 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks for the update. The fact that they made an offer to Bay before Holliday (who I do believe they like more) tells me that they think Bay AND Lackey is a viable option. That excites me.
prismo
12/10/2009-7:34pm at 7:34 pm (UTC -4)
How do you get SNY if you’re not in the NY area?
GravediggerHebner
12/10/2009-7:42pm at 7:42 pm (UTC -4)
I am in NY area, but I get all the regional sports networks via DirecTV’s sports package. They black out the actual major sports games, but I can watch Comcast Sports New England, and Mid Atlantic Sports Network, and all the various Fox Sports regionals like Fox Sports Missouri.
I get a lot of spring training games, and pre-season basketball and hockey, and regular season college sports, and of course all their various talk shows and specials like hot stove stuff. You’re down in MASN land I believe, so it might mean something if I say I sometimes watch Anita Marks on MASN.
trs86
12/11/2009-7:42am at 7:42 am (UTC -4)
Here is my last thought on the Cameron debate:
“About Cameron they say offensively he will produce 13 runs more than an average CF.”
How many more runs will he produce than the average LF?
“But, they add that an average CF saves 10 more runs than an average LF,”
How can you add those 10 into what an average CF would save over an average LF? Those are two different positions. So you are telling me that on average a good CF would save 10 more runs over the course of the season over a good LF just because it’s a CF playing LF?
I don’t think there is any question that Cameron would be a better defender next year than Bay. However, I can’t see him being a better package because of some formula comparing 2 positions with shaky logic.
GravediggerHebner
12/11/2009-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
“I” am not telling anyone anything. “I” am simply passing on the hypotheses of some of the writers at fangraphs.com. “I” am no longer interested in arguing about or defending “their” positions. If “you” or anyone else want to dispute or debate the hypotheses of the people at fangraphs, please take it up with “them.”
prismo
12/11/2009-8:07am at 8:07 am (UTC -4)
For everyone’s information about Bay vs. Cameron with home runs…last season Cameron averaged around 8 more feet per homer than Bay. Surprising, huh?
trs86
12/11/2009-8:14am at 8:14 am (UTC -4)
Not really. Bay is much more of a pull hitter though right?
prismo
12/11/2009-8:18am at 8:18 am (UTC -4)
Both heavily pull hitters, but Bay does seem to pull more closer to the “line”, which is obviously a big deal at Citi Field. Cameron hits more in the left-center gap, which is not a good place to try and hit homers at Citi. Nice observation!
Bay: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_146&type=hitter
Cameron: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2009_60&type=hitter
prismo
12/11/2009-8:29am at 8:29 am (UTC -4)
This is EXTREMELY rough, and you have to remember that many of each player’s home runs come on the road…
But It looks to me like 3-5 of Cameron’s 2009 HRs would NOT have been hit out of Citi Field.
For Bay it’s more like 1-2.
wannybackstra
12/11/2009-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
FYI. From today’s Post, JP Ricciardi discussing Molina:
Ricciardi also raved about Molina defensively, praising him for his game-calling and receiving skills.
“He did a great job with our staff,†he said. “He takes pride in his catching.â€
METS BLOG
In Molina’s 2006 season with the Jays, Roy Halladay went 16-5 with a 3.19 ERA. Of course, that’s the planet’s best pitcher, but keep in mind that Ted Lilly also won 15 games (which was a career high at that point) and closer B.J. Ryan posted a sparkling 1.37 ERA and saved 38 games.
And the Jays’ team ERA that year was 4.37 — fifth-best in the AL. This season Molina caught just 23 percent of runners trying to steal, but in 2008 he stopped 35 percent and in 2007 he nabbed 30 percent. For his career, he’s at 32 percent.
Molina’s part of the celebrated Molina catching family, with one brother (Yadier) a star for the Cardinals and another (Jose) a world champion with the Yankees. Clubhouse-wise, the Mets would be getting what sounds like a strong addition. Said Ricciardi, “You won’t ask for a better guy.â€
Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/amazin_make_plays_for_bay_and_molina_Np9eHFeUTYui32semyTlbJ#ixzz0ZOrmVOUr