All-Star Catcher and Future Met Bengie Molina
Brian Joura of fangraphs.com takes a look at Bengie Molina who had 20 HR and 80 RBIs in 2009 and what to expect from him in 2010.
Among things that will negatively affect Molina’s HR and RBI numbers are:
- Molina will bat lower in the order, come to the plate fewer times and see fewer runners on base.
- Molina had huge home road splits. He had a .300 BABIP in home games compared to a .234 mark in road games.
- Molina hits too many fly balls, especially for Citi. Last season he had a 52.5 FB%, by far the highest mark of his career.
- Molina will be a 35 year old catcher.
- Molina won’t play in as many games. Only 11 players in history have caught 70 percent of the time and appeared in 132 games or more as a 35-year old.
So, Molina has to hook on with a new team and hope he does not fall too far in the batting order, hope that last year’s BABIP road numbers were a fluke, hope that he can maintain one of the best FB% in the majors and hope he can put up arguably the best season of a 35-year-old catcher in history to match last season’s numbers.
Obviously, this analysis is taken from a fantasy baseball stats point of view, but the implications may become true. Molina will have to defy the odds in order to maintain his 2009 offensive numbers. Molina better call a good game!
65 comments
CaseStreet
12/18/2009-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
I could see a 6-8 of Molina, Murphy, Francouer.
However, if Delgado rejoins the Mets, then you’d have to imagine Molina will have to bat further down the order.
Of course, I’m assuming Bay will be batting further up in the order.
GravediggerHebner
12/18/2009-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
Everything you outline here also lends to reasons why Molina is holding out in hopes of getting as much money as he possibly can. This will clearly be his last chance at a “big” contract. Perhaps they’re making it rain yen in Japan?
wannybackstra
12/18/2009-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
SF isn’t particularly friendly to power right handed hitters so it is surprising that Molina hit so well there, especially considering his fly ball rate.
If he hit well in SF, there’s probably no reason to expect he wont in Citi (at least not on that basis).
wannybackstra
12/18/2009-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
from mlbtr:
“The Mariners are trying to trade one of their young players and lock another one up long-term, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal hears that the Mariners are trying to trade Brandon Morrow for a corner infielder or DH. The M’s may re-visit talks with the Brewers about a Mat Gamel for Morrow swap.”
Any chance the M’s would be interested in Murphy?
GravediggerHebner
12/18/2009-12:50pm at 12:50 pm (UTC -4)
I’d be very interested in Morrow in any of a number of roles for the Mets (SP, set up, future closer) but you would know better than I: isn’t Gamel ‘worth more’ (a more respected young player around the league capable of a greater return in trade) than Murphy?
wannybackstra
12/18/2009-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
Gamel probably is worth more right now. But if Milwaukee doesn’t give him up for Morrow then maybe Morrow’s worth is more in line with Murphy’s than Gamel’s.
Morrow, like the other two, has had some struggles at the MLB level. His problem has been with control. He’s also been jerked around by two Mariners regimes in a Joba like fashion.
He’s worth a shot given his golden arm.
Kingman 26
12/18/2009-1:03pm at 1:03 pm (UTC -4)
Ah, Brandon Morrow—chosen 5 picks ahead of hometown boy Tim Lincecum–can you imagine the Mariners with King Felix, Tokin’ Tim, and Cliff Lee??
And yes, Morrow is a young fireballer who might one day be an amazing closer. I would take him in a second. Send them Murphy and someone else.
GravediggerHebner
12/18/2009-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
Somewhat related to your suggestion of Murphy in a trade, Mack @ Mack’s Mets (FWIW) seems pretty convinced that Ike Davis is a Daniel Murphy slow start away from the major leagues.
This quote from his post today about the organization’s 1B:
“Ike Davis: projected AAA – we all know about Davis, who will “start†the season in Buffalo. Trust me, if Murphy stumbles and Ike gets off to a hot start, he’s out of Buffalo.”
CaseStreet
12/18/2009-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
LoDuca was 34 in 06 and 35 in 07, Piazza was 34 in 02 and 35 in 07, Carter was 34 in 88 and 35 in 89, Grote was 34 in 76 and 35 in 77.
All of their numbers dropped significantly at age 35.
I’ll show the numbers in a bit.
fongy2
12/18/2009-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
I told ya this wks ago.
Take almost any Catcher of any era
and after about 33/34yrs old, it’s all down hill. Few are even regulars
beyond that AND after 34/35 even HOFs
and near HOFs are shot.
The only exceptions were Fisk,who was
a physical freak of nature and Santiago who was shot @ about 32/33
only to get a second life when he joined Barry Bonds(Hello!)and The SF
Giants when he was about 37.
And I don’t know of one Catcher with
the physical make-up of Bengie Molina
who was worth anything by 35.
This would be a bad,bad move for so
many reasons.
prismo
12/18/2009-1:25pm at 1:25 pm (UTC -4)
So not Mets news…but the Phillies picked up Rollins’ $8.5MM 2011 option.
One question…why!?
He had a pretty bad year last year and he’s only getting older. I don’t get it.
Kingman 26
12/18/2009-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
He’s really good.
Gold Glover, scores 100 runs even with a horrible OBP, 43 2B, excellent base stealer.
Bad OBP, but there is a LOT more to his game than that.
He’s a really good player, and definitely did not have a bad year.
trs86
12/18/2009-1:35pm at 1:35 pm (UTC -4)
King I know your secondary love for the Phillies but come on. Offensively Rollins was TERRIBLE last year and we would be calling for his head here.
No way to spin this:
.250 .296 .423 .719
fongy2
12/18/2009-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
Take another look at his numbers,beginning in June my friend.
trs86
12/18/2009-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
This June?
.206 .292 .498
Kingman 26
12/18/2009-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
TRS—A Gold Glove shortstop who scores 100 runs, hits 43 doubles, steals a lot of bases at at least an 80% clip??
Come on, you spin the stats in a wacky way when you say Rollins had a bad year, even just offensively.
And TRS, maybe I will send you some footage of me watching a Phils-Mets game for you to instantly realize that I want the Mets to beat two teams more than anything—the Yanks and the Phils. It meant nothing, but I was thrilled when DRod Unclutch Soft and Heartless hit the 2 HR to beat the Phils last year.
trs86
12/18/2009-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman do you not notice how quickly you jump to defend them anytime someone says something negative about them.
I don’t care what other stats you look at. A .250 BA and a .719 OPS is a bad year offensively. He had one good month to even get that high.
Kingman 26
12/18/2009-1:55pm at 1:55 pm (UTC -4)
I RESPECT them, because what they have done over the last three years is pretty amazing.
And you fall into the easy-to-fall into trap of overanalyzing and misreading stats so they say what you want when you judge a player like Rollins by his OBP—and his OPS is of course really low largely due to the crazy OBP….he still hit 43 2B, 5 3B, and 21 HR—not good for a SS?? To go with his 100R, 77 RBI, and 31/39 SB–and Gold Glove.
Come on.
I am not biased towards the Phils my friend, you are biased against them.
trs86
12/18/2009-2:01pm at 2:01 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman there is no body on any team that I would say had a good offensive year with those stats. He’s a good player that had a terrible year. I am sorry I can’t agree that it was still good. If I judge most of the other players in baseball by OPS and OPS+ how would it be fair to suddenly judge him otherwise. Even with Frenchy I admit that it holds him back and he is only suited for the 6-8 spots. Unless that is where Rollins is going to bat then he better get back to career averages. You can’t have someone getting out that much at the top of the order no matter what else he does on offense.
That being said, he is a very good player and I expect a rebound.
GravediggerHebner
12/18/2009-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
Count the ring biatch!
No but seriously, probably because in his entire career he has played less than 152 games only once, so he’s reliable. He doesn’t strike out prohibitively (in ’08 he had more BB than K) and while we may not think he deserves the GG he’s been a positive fielder by UZR/150 every year of his career.
$8.5 mil is cheap by ML standards. Jose Reyes’s option for 2011 is $11 million for the same year. In that context $8.5 seems perfectly reasonable.
trs86
12/18/2009-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
I agree that it’s reasonable if nothing else because he is a very good defender and has potential to return to his old form offensively.
GravediggerHebner
12/18/2009-1:53pm at 1:53 pm (UTC -4)
I agree, especially considering that even in this one outlier bad BA & OBP year he still hit 43 2B and 21 HR.
prismo
12/18/2009-1:35pm at 1:35 pm (UTC -4)
His OPS was .719, that’s a bad year.
And even if they’re okay with that, and if he does it again in 2010, they still want him back…why exercise the option NOW? There’s absolutely no reason to. What if he sustains an injury this season and they still owe him $8.5MM for 2011 when they just could’ve waited until next fall to make the decision.
trs86
12/18/2009-1:38pm at 1:38 pm (UTC -4)
They know that offensively he was a mess last year and did not want the thoughts of a contract weighing on his head. Something the Mets should do with Reyes.
prismo
12/18/2009-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
Weighing on his head? But you know as well as I that Phillies players never have that issue. They’re tough as nails with steel bones and the grit of 10 Mets players each.
fongy2
12/18/2009-1:43pm at 1:43 pm (UTC -4)
They’ve shown themselves to be a lot tougher than our group the past 3 yrs , thats for sure.
trs86
12/18/2009-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
Again Fongy, why does it seem your goal to defend the Phillies on a Mets blog?
fongy2
12/18/2009-1:52pm at 1:52 pm (UTC -4)
My friend,
why does the truth hurt?
Kingman 26
12/18/2009-1:56pm at 1:56 pm (UTC -4)
+ A Lot
Kingman 26
12/18/2009-1:43pm at 1:43 pm (UTC -4)
No, it is not a bad year, with everything he does.
Sorry.
prismo
12/18/2009-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t accept your apology.
Kingman 26
12/18/2009-1:59pm at 1:59 pm (UTC -4)
HAHA!!
prismo
12/18/2009-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
trs86
12/18/2009-1:49pm at 1:49 pm (UTC -4)
Kingman if you ask him if it was a bad year offensively for him what do you think he would say?
fongy2
12/18/2009-1:54pm at 1:54 pm (UTC -4)
I think he’d say”It was bad for me BUT still one of the better ones for any SS in the game.”
Oh,and “I’m certaily worth 2and ahalf mil more than Luis Castillo.
GravediggerHebner
12/18/2009-1:56pm at 1:56 pm (UTC -4)
LOL
fongy2
12/18/2009-1:36pm at 1:36 pm (UTC -4)
Thank you!,Wise Sir.
He also was hitting
about .200 on Memorial
Day and the last 4/5
months returned to
being what he is,one
of the best SS in the
game.
prismo
12/18/2009-1:38pm at 1:38 pm (UTC -4)
June-end of season
OPS of .769
If that’s one of the best SS in the game, I’ll be damned.
fongy2
12/18/2009-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
If you’re judging his play based on one stat,you might be.
trs86
12/18/2009-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
OPS measures 2 stats fongy. You know that.
trs86
12/18/2009-1:40pm at 1:40 pm (UTC -4)
Fongy carry that bad year on up through June. His worst month was June with a whopping .498 OPS.
He had an incredible July and average August and September to barley get his OPS over .700
fongy2
12/18/2009-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
Alright.But I think you got my point.
trs86
12/18/2009-1:43pm at 1:43 pm (UTC -4)
I hope you know ours. He was terrible last year. One month of great, 2 months of average and 3 months of god awful.
Kingman 26
12/18/2009-1:57pm at 1:57 pm (UTC -4)
He wasn’t anything close to terrible, and it is your anti-Phillie bias which makes you write something ridiculous like this.
GravediggerHebner
12/18/2009-2:01pm at 2:01 pm (UTC -4)
It’s particularly glaring after all the discussions we’ve had about not judging players on one season.
trs86
12/18/2009-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
He was terrible last year
I agree that it’s reasonable if nothing else because he is a very good defender and has potential to return to his old form offensively.
That being said, he is a very good player and I expect a rebound.
Dang what do you guys expect me to do next lick his balls?
I have said many times he is a very good player, very much worth his contract because of defense and position but he had a terrible year offensively. It is most likely just a bad year and I expect a rebound.
Kingman 26
12/18/2009-2:49pm at 2:49 pm (UTC -4)
I expect you to cradle the balls, stroke the shaft, work the pipe, and swallow the gravy.
Quick, who can name that quote??
GravediggerHebner
12/18/2009-2:53pm at 2:53 pm (UTC -4)
Jack Black, Tropic Thunder
Kingman 26
12/18/2009-3:21pm at 3:21 pm (UTC -4)
Very nice!
We have a winner!
manicmcreynolds
12/18/2009-2:18pm at 2:18 pm (UTC -4)
I think it’s an example of valuing a player for his total body of work, or for his average season. Philly KNOWS they’ll get HRs/SBs if he’s healthty, and he’s just as likely to hit .300 as .250. Plus you solidify SS with GG defense. AND he appears to be a stand-up guy. Worth $8.5 mil easy. C’mon, guys.
Now, you could argue that Charlie doesn’t maximize his lineup by batting JR leadoff.
trs86
12/18/2009-2:25pm at 2:25 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think any of us are saying he is not worth his money. Fangraphs had him valued at 8.5 million last year so no matter what he is worth his money. You are right he should be batting 6th until his numbers come back up. Right now he is an RBI man with speed.
trs86
12/18/2009-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
GRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIT
fongy2
12/18/2009-1:34pm at 1:34 pm (UTC -4)
Ah,because he just turned 31,
is an Allstar,Gold Glove winner,recent former MVP and
the leader of a team which has
been to the playoffs 3 yrs in a row,won the title 2 yrs ago
and lost in 6 this yr despite
having no Bullpen?
They’re also built to try and win again the next 2/3 yrs so,
they wouldn’t pick up his option because…what exactly?
trs86
12/18/2009-1:36pm at 1:36 pm (UTC -4)
Go figure who would come to the rescue for a Philly player. Kingman and Fongy, secondary Phillies lovers…. LOL just giving you guys a hard time. I think they had to pick up the option the same reason that no matter what the Mets will have to with Reyes. Rollins was too good to fall apart the way he did last year and has to rebound some.
prismo
12/18/2009-1:37pm at 1:37 pm (UTC -4)
No you people don’t get it. It’s not the picking up of the option that is the problem, it’s that they did it 8 months before they needed to!
fongy2
12/18/2009-1:38pm at 1:38 pm (UTC -4)
Saves ill will.
trs86
12/18/2009-1:46pm at 1:46 pm (UTC -4)
That part I agree with. They did not have a choice but to pick it up so why not pick it up now.
manicmcreynolds
12/18/2009-2:22pm at 2:22 pm (UTC -4)
It is odd. But maybe it’s sort of the reverse of a player giving a team/city the old “hometown discount.” It’s an “Attaboy” from the organization.
trs86
12/18/2009-2:23pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed but it’s not that odd.
CaseStreet
12/18/2009-3:01pm at 3:01 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks for hijacking this thread with dumb Rollins discussion.
GravediggerHebner
12/18/2009-3:05pm at 3:05 pm (UTC -4)
Unfortunately while you were busy with finals most of us were yelling at each other about how much we wanted or didn’t want Molina. Your post is a nice fact based summary of our more “he’s fat and has an OBP of .307″ stuff though, kudos.
CaseStreet
12/18/2009-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
I think the argument was “he’s fat and slow”
GravediggerHebner
12/18/2009-3:31pm at 3:31 pm (UTC -4)
You’re right, that OBP thing must’ve come from you. Sometimes I mix up facts and emotions. Pour a little milk on ‘em and they’re part of a delicious, nutritious breakfast.
fongy2
12/18/2009-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
Dam you hijackers!!
CaseStreet
12/18/2009-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
I was hope for more “I told you so”, but only you obliged fongy. I can always count on you.