A few of my distinguished collegues on TRDM have had this discussion before. Does Omar have a plan and if so what is it. I am a firm believer that this year the Mets do indeed have a plan. I think most of us agree that is the case. Where we differ is what that plan should be. Obviously most of the time plan A never works and rarely does plan B. Are you better off developing 5 scenarios and working off those or are you better adjusting to the market once that first plan is impossible? I like to have control over things so I think plans A-E need to be laid out. That does not mean they can’t be tweaked based on the market. So that brings us back to today’s question. What is plan C?
To figure this out you have to figure out what were plans A and B and are they still in place? In my opinion the Mets off-season plans were as follows.
A) Get Lackey AND Bay. Hope the market allows you to pay a good range for both of your biggest needs. I believe that is why they started out with low offers for Bay and Lackey. The question is which one did they want the most. I think it is clear they were interested in Lackey but only to about what Lowe signed for last year. I think Lackey knew that and that is why he did not even bother with the 2nd Mets meeting. We can go back and forth all day like we have already as to if the Mets should have overpaid Lackey. Fact is they were not willing to do that regardless of if Lackey wanted to be here or not. So in my opinion plan A can not be achieved.
B) Get a REAL LF in Bay or Holliday, which ever one will come at market value. Don’t over-show your hand because right now bidding is limited. Then sign or trade for a secondary pitcher. A guy who could fill in the middle of the rotation but most likely not a #2. Names include Harang, Arroyo, Meche on the trade front or guys like Marquis, Pinerio, Wolf, Garland. Plan B in my opinion is still in force and is viewed by the Mets as the most likely from the beginning.
C) So what is plan C? Is it keep what we have because they were good enough to be in 1st part of the season last year before the injuries? Is it load up on short-term guys like Damon, Dye, Vlad etc? Is it the extreme case by the media calling for rebuilding and trading Santana? In my opinion plan C is the one that could create the most interesting few months. Obviously the Mets are not going the rebuilding route so those idiotic suggestions can be put to rest. However, a combination of the first two suggestions could field an all or nothing team for next year that would still keep the core intact as well as our prospects for the future.
Example
Sign Molina to 1+1
Sign Dye to 1+1 knowing that he has limited defensive abilities and is willing to play some 1B.
Sign Marquis, because he wants to be a Met, for the back of the rotation.
Wait to see which one of the Garland, Pineiro group ends up left out.
Sign Gritty McHudson to go with Castillo and to learn 1B and 3B. The Phillies wanted him to be a 3B so I don’t see why he could not be Wright’s backup.
That should total about 32 million which is what I have counted as available money. It would field a lineup of
Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Beltran, Dye, Frenchy, Murphy, Molina with the ability to switch out Murphy for Dye or Hudson as well as Dye for Pagan.
Bench:Â Blanco, Pagan, Hudson, Cora, minor league guy
Rotation:
Johan, Pelfrey, Garland, Marquis, Perez/Maine
BP: Krod, Feliciano, Igarashi, Parnell, Stokes/Green, Everts, Dessens/Misch/Nieve/ and who ever is bumped from the rotation.
47 comments
stickguy
12/21/2009-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure if they had distinct plans, but the way you laid it out makes sense.
more like a ‘vision” (call it a master plan or blueprint), and then zig and zag to what the market gives you, and takes away.
Your plan B is perfectly logical, and you are correct, seems to be what they are persuing. It just takes a while for the market to sort itself out.
I also agree that Plan C could be very interesting, and in some ways, might be the best option, if your “vision” is to support the ocre for a run in 2010, while simultaneously preserving the farm to allow the top guys another year to develop. Hopefully your prospects in 2011 can take over for some of the 1 year wonders, at a much cheaper price, allowing you to get 1-2 primo FAs next off season.
trs86
12/21/2009-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I think you and I came up with this plan a long time ago. I still almost like it as much as I do committing all those years to Bay or Holliday.
stickguy
12/21/2009-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
given that Bay is 31, and his fair at best defense, he might better be considered a glorified (and expensive) plan C guy. Especially a couple years down the road.
trs86
12/21/2009-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
See I think the same about Holliday. To me either if they are signing 5 or more years need to be in the AL. It’s not like Holliday is drastically younger.
trs86
12/21/2009-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
Update:
Free agent lefty Darren Oliver agreed to a one-year deal with the Rangers, reports MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. His physical is scheduled for tomorrow. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick first reported the progress yesterday on a deal that would guarantee $3.5MM with a 2011 vesting option that could bring the total to $6.25MM. This would mark Oliver’s third stint with the Rangers.
trs86
12/21/2009-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
I just thought of two signings that would be part of plan C that could really work well.
Ankiel and Nady. Great LH/RH platoon there and also gives protection for Beltran/Frenchy and Murphy. Those two combined should not cost 10 million?
stickguy
12/21/2009-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
If Nady is healthy enough (elbow) to actually play the OF, that might be a more productive LF than bay alone.
fongy2
12/21/2009-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
Problem is, we don’t know about Nady’s health and as
we learned from the blognazi,
Ankiel doesn’t want to Pitch
in New York. So, I’m not sure
he’d even want to play LF there either.
trs86
12/21/2009-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
True about health. But isn’t that why he would come cheap and for one year?
fongy2
12/21/2009-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
Who cares if he
comes for free
if he can’t help.
trs86
12/21/2009-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
I did see one more creative albeit impossible scenario. Move Wright to 1B and sign Beltre. In the poster’s opinion that would instantly improve our defense.
CaseStreet
12/21/2009-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Plan C, give 1 year deals to anyone that can improve the team. [Winn, Sheets, Delgado, Olivo] That way you keep prospects, have flexibility at the trade deadline because the 1 yr deals will be inexpensive, have flexibility at a better free agent market next year.
Plan D, stay in-house and save money for what may be a busy trade-deadline. Of course, this means no injuries, bounce back years from the regulars, and hope the newbies [Murphy, Pagan, Santos, Nieve] can sustain last years performance.
Mr North Jersey
12/21/2009-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
IT is kind of exciting the hope that players like
Wilmer Flores
Ike Davis
Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Josh Thole
Ruben Tejada
Jenry Mejia
Brad Holt
Fernando Martinez
To name only a few may by 2011 be ready to join the Big Club and possibly even have 1 and if we are lucky 2 become part of the core that we build around for the future.
trs86
12/21/2009-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
I agree that we have some interesting names. Looks like Thole,Tejada, Davis, Fmart and Mejia could even be knocking this year. I think we have all forgotten the type of year Fmart was finally having in AAA before the rush up.
Mr North Jersey
12/21/2009-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
I think they are all good kids but I am really hoping that Davis, Nieuwenhuis, and Martinez become special players that will be part of this franchise for years to come.
It would be good to believe the Mets can generate quality MLB players from their farm system that teams would covet in trades down the road.
Lately our farm system has taken a beating around MLB.
trs86
12/21/2009-12:58pm at 12:58 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting but a lot of that beating has been more in the media than mlb. Remember we did not have the prospects for Santana. Also, the Jays supposedly had a package picked out for Halladay.
Mr North Jersey
12/21/2009-1:23pm at 1:23 pm (UTC -4)
You would have to show me where we are rated at the top of franchises with a great farm system by MLB.
The media when they have ripped the Mets many (NOT ALL) are quoting people in MLB.
GravediggerHebner
12/21/2009-1:36pm at 1:36 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t remember who it was (SI? BA?) but someone recently published their system rankings and the Mets were NOT in the bottom five (hooray!), they fell in the 20th-25th range (I can’t remember exactly what #).
In late February so a lot has changed BA ranked their top 100 prospects and the Mets had:
#30 FMart
#47 Wilmer Flores
#77 Niese
#94 Holt
As a division comparison the Braves had # 4 & 5, the Marlins had # 8, 16, & 18 but neither the Nats or Phils had anyone ranked ahead of FMart.
Mr North Jersey
12/21/2009-2:05pm at 2:05 pm (UTC -4)
Grave I think I found what you was talking about.
John Manuel of Baseball America did an article for SI posted Dec 3 2009.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/01/farm.systems/index.html
In it he ranks the 5 best teams and the 5 worst teams. He then ranks the best of the 6 through 15 range and the worst of the 16 through 25 range.
Sadly we rank in the worst of the 16 through 25 range. we are 6th in that range with only the Padres,Reds,Tigers, and White Sox ranking worse in that range.
Here is the breakdown.
From best to worst
1. Rangers
2. Rays
3. Giants
4. Phillies
5. Indians
6. Braves
7. Brewers
8. Marlins
9. Orioles
10. Pirates
11. Red Sox
12. Rockies
13. Royals
14. Twins
15. Yankees
16. Angels
17. Athletics
18. Cubs
19. Dodgers
20. Mariners
21. Mets
22. Padres
23. Reds
24. Tigers
25. White Sox
26. Nationals
27. Diamondbacks
28. Blue Jays
29. Cardinals
30. Astros
GravediggerHebner
12/21/2009-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
That’s exactly the article I was talking about.
CaseStreet
12/21/2009-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, that’s why I wouldn’t trade some of them unless we’re getting a Santana type player.
Even if they only perform average, it saves money to lock up the Core and bring in some other true stars that may become available in the future.
Mr North Jersey
12/21/2009-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Many know my opinion on Minaya and his “Plan or Plans or lack thereof” so no need to rehash that but it would be nice if we can get to the point where we are no longer discussing what it is but rather what it was.
trs86
12/21/2009-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
I thought we came to the understanding that you did not like Omar’s plan or even his planning skills.
Are we still stuck on the idea that the Mets are actually proceeding with NO plan at all?
Mr North Jersey
12/21/2009-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
I would try and answer your question but why bother when we both know you will not understand it and worse it will only lead to more questions.
trs86
12/21/2009-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
Never mind. I will assume the answer to my question is yes.
Mr North Jersey
12/21/2009-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
trs86
12/21/2009-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting point on Mattsblog as to why the Mets have not set a deadline for Bay and called his bluff. Reason is they want Jason Bay for LF. If he indeed balks then what? If they are prepared to move on without him that’s easy. If not then no reason to do that yet.
fongy2
12/21/2009-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
Actually its not interesting
at all, just more dopeyness
from the blognazi’s site.
GravediggerHebner
12/21/2009-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
I hope I’m wrong TRS but after reading plan C I sort of get the impression that since you determined previously through painstaking research and flow charts and graphs that the Mets had this $32 mil to spend, that now you’re just trying to find ways to spend it.
I don’t think these are worthwhile ways. If faced with these types of plans, I’m more inclined to fall in line with your idea that “in July they were 1 game out” and just go to war with what we already have, saving the money for mid-season additions if the team truly can hang with ‘em, and for next off-season if it can’t.
oleosmirf
12/21/2009-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
either spend the money on top notch players or go all out for chapman and hope you bought yourself the next Felix Hernandez…
Mr North Jersey
12/21/2009-1:27pm at 1:27 pm (UTC -4)
I too think Chapman is worth the risk to go after.
wannybackstra
12/21/2009-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
I’m with you (and Fongy) on this one. Plan C is a bunch of crap players and there’s no need to waste money on them.
Jermaine Dye? 250 .340 .453 in LF will not overcome his defense. (surprised that TRS is willing to sign Dye off a bad year when he is apparently opposed to brining in Randy Winn for much cheaper because he also came off a bad year — and unlike Dye can play excellent defense).
GravediggerHebner
12/21/2009-1:55pm at 1:55 pm (UTC -4)
I want to be very clear I am not referring to TRS or claiming to speak for him or to indicate his intentions.
In general I have noticed a lot of sentiment in Metworld that the team just has to some way insert a “slugger” into the lineup, that it’s mandatory and they’ve just got to do so, and I think that’s how people in general come to suggest acquiring people like Dye or Guerrero to play the OF for this team, which implies to me that because one can hit 30 HR is more important than being able to run to, catch and throw the ball or to run after pick up and throw the ball.
I disagree with that general sentiment, especially after crunching HR numbers of this team and all NL teams over the last 3 years. I place less value on “being able to slug” and more on “being able to hit at least somewhat, but also being able to field.”
Mr North Jersey
12/21/2009-2:11pm at 2:11 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with your opinion. Don’t get me wrong if the Mets could acquire a true slugger like a Prince Fielder I’d be all for it but if we are building a team to play in Citi Fields then I want more of a High avg hitter for the outfield that can drive the ball in the gaps and can run for extra base hits that can play the field and cover a lot of ground.
Sounds like I want 2 more Beltrans.
Mr North Jersey
12/21/2009-1:32pm at 1:32 pm (UTC -4)
Is it me or is Sports Spyder having a slow day with Mets news?
metsfan4decades
12/21/2009-2:43pm at 2:43 pm (UTC -4)
It’s a slow baseball news day all the way around, from many sites I’ve been perusing.
I guess all took the weekend off to watch football and finish up any last minute XMas shopping. – LOL.
Heyman reported last week he thought Bay would be signed by XMas and possibly Molina. Hopefully, we’ll know one way or the other on both of them by end of this week.
Mr North Jersey
12/21/2009-2:42pm at 2:42 pm (UTC -4)
FYI Marquis to the Nats according to MLBTR.
saltygary
12/21/2009-2:44pm at 2:44 pm (UTC -4)
Scratch of plan C…
darknova306
12/21/2009-3:10pm at 3:10 pm (UTC -4)
I wonder if all this “Jason Marquis is a winner” nonsense will die once the Nats don’t make the playoffs.
wannybackstra
12/21/2009-3:13pm at 3:13 pm (UTC -4)
According to these whackos, this is the worst development ever:
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2009/12/nationals-sign-jason-marquis-mets-never-made-offer.html
Kingman 26
12/21/2009-3:18pm at 3:18 pm (UTC -4)
Jason Marquis is a “significant improvement”??
Uh, no, he is not.
He is a mediocre middle of the rotation pitcher.
I am very glad that we did not get him.
darknova306
12/21/2009-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
Apparently because he said he wanted play for us we were supposed to throw 3 years at him. Gimme a break.
wannybackstra
12/21/2009-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
All this means is that there must not be a very good market for these mediocre veteran pitchers. If there was a good market for them I’m sure Mr. Marquis would not have chosen a laughingstock franchise where he will do little more than make sure Stephen Strasburg hits his curfew.
Suddenly, it looks like Garland might be facing another 1 year deal, making him a better choice for the back of the Mets rotation than Marquis (you have to think Washington had to go to the second year that no one else was offering just as they did with Dunn last year).
Kingman 26
12/21/2009-3:14pm at 3:14 pm (UTC -4)
GREAT news on Marquis…he stinks.
Now at least he won’t have to stress out about whether he will be bumped out of the rotation for the postseason…
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/21/2009-3:20pm at 3:20 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t write anything on Marquis post.
Mr North Jersey
12/21/2009-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
THX 4 DA HEADS UP
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/21/2009-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
I thought MC was in the house for a minute.