Well I guess now that Jason Bay has signed with the Mets I have to tone down all my anti Omar sentiments for now ( damn !), I think this will turn out to be a good move by the Mets. David Wright and Carlos Beltran once again have protection in the line up from a legitimate home run threat, coupled with Jeff Francouer , Daniel Murphy and possibly Bengie Molina in the sixth through eighth spots respectively and you have the fiercest Met lineup since ’06. So now the onus is on finding a more than capable starter to join the rotation. Will it be Carlos Zambrano ? Probably not . John Garland ? GOD NO ! Our status quo from last year? possibly – but I can’t see the front office not getting somebody to improve the rotation. And if that is the case, I believe John Maine will be used as trade bait because we all know that Oliver Perez is untradeable, and the Mets would be out of their minds to trade Mike Pelfrey – and Johan is not going anywhere !
So that leads us to the first base platoon. I have a feeling that Chris Carter , Nick Evans and Fernando Tatis will be made to compete for that job. It is a cheaper alternative than signing a possibly less than 100% Xavier Nady, or over paying for a Ryan Garko. But hey what do I know – I am not a G.M.
And with that said….. HERE COMES THE INFAMY !!!!
                                                                             
                                                                      ” You Da Man Omar !!!”
Happy Birthday wishes go out to utility infielder Ralph Milliard (1973). Ralph played in only 10 games for the Mets in 1998, but he will always be known as the other player we obtained along with Al Leiter in the deal that we sent Robert Stratton,A.J, Burnett,and Jesus Sanchez to the Florida Marlins.
And don’t forget – There are only 96 more days until the Mets open the 2010 season against the Florida Marlins at Citi Field.
31 comments
stickguy
12/30/2009-4:36pm at 4:36 pm (UTC -4)
I think they will add another SP, but don’t expect them to trade Maine in the deal. It will be a salary dump, and/or prospects fo some kind.
trading Maine for a mid-level guy doesn’t really help much, since it still leaves a hole, since Maine effectively is a middle-level guy! So at best, you are probably getting a guy to give the same production as Maine, if Maines shoulder holds up.
the 3-7 spot poo-poo platter looks a lot more appetizing when Maine is included on the platter.
I don’t have a proble with a rotation mix of Johan, Maine, Pelf, Ollie, Neise, Neive if you add one more guy from a mix of say Mech, Harang, Arroyo (maybe even Garland).
Maybe not the top heavy “pair of aces” some people demand, but way better at the back end than what they had the last few years!
dirtysanchez
12/30/2009-4:38pm at 4:38 pm (UTC -4)
no more tatis…
njstuckintx
12/30/2009-4:48pm at 4:48 pm (UTC -4)
I think my preference would be as follows:
Reyes, Murphy, Wright, Bay, Beltran, Francouer, Molina, Castillo, Pitcher.
I know it puts alot of faith in Murph, but liked someones suggestion of Castillo clearing way for the pitcher and I believe both that the children are the future and that Murphs ability to drive the ball and make contact will benefit Reyes.
And I’m with Stick on the Rotation, with an asterisk. If they can finagle in Sheets, knowing that the “poo-poo platter” will be sufficient fill in’s if/when injury stikes, I could live with that till midseason and snag someone or two at the trade deadline.
stickguy
12/30/2009-5:05pm at 5:05 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I could have added sheets to my list of new guys. The only real question is whether he will be able to pitch at the beginning.
Otherwise, he ends up being the mid-year replacement for one of the platter guys if they break down.
I also like your line up, but I still hold out hope that Castillo gets replaced. If Murphy regains some of his patience (and hitting in the 2 hole it is much more likely), then he could be a force itting behind reyes, pulling balls through the hole and ripping doubles.
you also may be flipping beltran and wiright, or maybe bay and beltran?
njstuckintx
12/30/2009-5:12pm at 5:12 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, you really could go either of the 3.
Wright, Bay, Beltran
Wright, Beltran, Bay
Beltran, Bay, Wright
If that’s our most discussed topic come the start of the season, we’ll be doing OK. Here’s to hoping!
prismo
12/30/2009-5:23pm at 5:23 pm (UTC -4)
Castillo should bat second. Firstly, he’s a far better #2 batter than #8 batter. I don’t have the stats, but I know they showed them a few times on SNY last season, and it’s a HUGE difference.
Also, it’s almost guaranteed that his OBP will be higher than Murphy’s. When trying to set up Wright/Bay/Beltran, we need men on base as much as possible.
If Castillo starts off cold or Murphy hot, I could see swapping them…but not right away.
metsfan4decades
12/30/2009-6:50pm at 6:50 pm (UTC -4)
I’m with you on this. I think Louie did O.K. in the 8th spot last year, which is why Jerry eventually moved him back to the 2 spot (heck, I think we had like 50 different lineups with Murph as cleanup hitter at one time – LOL).
I’m thinking for 3, 4, 5, it’ll start off looking like Wright, Bay, Beltran.
trs86
12/30/2009-10:04pm at 10:04 pm (UTC -4)
Castillo batting 8th last year: .324 .415 .394 .809
prismo
12/31/2009-4:47am at 4:47 am (UTC -4)
Haha wow I lose.
I could’ve sworn it was terrible. Oh well.
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-5:09pm at 5:09 pm (UTC -4)
Rotation of:
Santana, Bedard/Sheets/Meche/Zambrano/Harang, Maine, Pelfrey, Perez
stickguy
12/30/2009-5:19pm at 5:19 pm (UTC -4)
Looks like we are on the same page.
with Neise in AAA and Neive out of the pen (or AAA if too crowded) making a much better 6-7 than Lima time!
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-5:24pm at 5:24 pm (UTC -4)
My money is on Meche or Zambrano. Both teams could use a CF and 2B.
Castillo, Pagan, and Familia?
metsfan4decades
12/30/2009-7:12pm at 7:12 pm (UTC -4)
Does anyone really think Zambrano will waive that no trade clause? It’s not like he’s gonna make more money coming over to the Mets….
And the Cubs didn’t think enough of Pagan at one point to consider him a starting OF so they got rid of him. Are they that desperate for a CF now to take him back?
I really don’t know the answers to either question. I’m just asking…..
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-7:29pm at 7:29 pm (UTC -4)
You are probably right about pagan, especially with Byrd still avail
maybe zambrano can be convinced by santan and krod both so from Venezuela
trs86
12/30/2009-10:02pm at 10:02 pm (UTC -4)
Perhaps the fact that guys like Byrd are asking for 2/12+ and would likely give the same production as Pagan at 1/1.
But also Cubs motive is that they are so locked financially. Dumping Zamby’s cash but still getting guys who could step in and play this year could be a plus. Still not sure on if they want Pagan though.
Maybe, Castillo, Niese and a prospect?
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-10:43pm at 10:43 pm (UTC -4)
I would not be surprised if the Cubs want Pelf in return. So something like Pagan, Pelf, and FMart/Tejada.
I would still do the deal.
Another thing about Zambrano (this was mentioned on the WFAN) is the fact that Johan, KRod, Escobar are all Venezuelan, so Zambrano might waive his no-trade clause. I think his firey personality would be well accepted in NY.
trs86
12/30/2009-10:59pm at 10:59 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t do it for Pelfrey. You need cheap mid-rotation guys. I would give them about any pitching prospect we had though.
trs86
12/30/2009-11:00pm at 11:00 pm (UTC -4)
Very true on the last part. I don’t know if the Cubs are in the position to demand Pelfrey now.
CaseStreet
12/31/2009-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
Looks like I was correct about the Cubs and Marlon Byrd.
trs86
12/30/2009-10:10pm at 10:10 pm (UTC -4)
Wanny: Not sure if you saw this:
Been doing some reading and perhaps Wanny can help me out here. So UZR is based on yearly averages of all fielders for that position for that year. Assuming that, if a guy like Beltran moved to LF and was great then other LF’s numbers would fall. Also there is some discussion about using range because of OF positioning and field dimensions.
Thus my question is, is it possible that his decrease in RngR from Pittsburg to Boston has to do with any of the above?
Interesting that Manny also seems to have improved defensively since leaving Boston but what is stranger is that his RngR is much better.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-10:37pm at 10:37 pm (UTC -4)
so this UZR is how a player performs relative to others. so in theory, Bay can be a above average fielder, but if every other LFs are Beltran-like, then Bay’s UZR is terrible.
Interesting fact on Manny. Does this mean that AL OFs are better defensively than NL OFs? Or the top tiered defensive OFs are much better in AL than NL.
trs86
12/30/2009-10:59pm at 10:59 pm (UTC -4)
what I noticed was his RngR was much better. What I don’t know is if that is also based on the league. If not then I still think that the wall could actually effect your range rating.
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-11:20pm at 11:20 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t see how the Green Monster would NOT have an impact on one’s range rating. Clearly you are going to move differently in an OF that has a 37 foot high wall behind you, especially close to the corner where it is barely 300 feet from home plate.
Much the same way that so many Red Sox LF have had so many assists over the years. Of course they would, the ball is bouncing off a large wall right behind them.
Fenway’s OF is very unique and should not be used as the sole judge of any LF skills. Unfortunately Bay has been negative in LF every year of his career except one regardless of what his home park was. I’m not saying that to trash the signing or anything, just noting the stat.
Related, of the 13 LF who played enough to qualify in 2009, only 5 had positive UZR, UZR/150, or RngR ratings, and in RngR and UZR Bay was 12th out of the 13, in UZR/150 he was 8th, negative in all. Is he a blind statue, no, but defense is not a “plus” attribute.
trs86
12/30/2009-11:42pm at 11:42 pm (UTC -4)
But again, what I noticed was the huge decrease in his RngR in Boston going from -8.9 to -14.6, -14.4 while with Boston. Seems to be that stat that has tanked him the last few two years.
Also, after reading about UZR I am not sure it’s even fair to compare year to year any more. He’s been negative every year but it’s not like offense where there is a set baseline. As I read, here is an example, DeJesus gets moved from CF to LF and suddenly all LF get the shaft. Looking at last year’s stats, take Crawford and Dejesus (both who should be CF) out and you are left with 3 positive guys. What do you think that does to Bay’s UZR?
Also looking at some of the stats, I am still not sure I completely understand how it is even measured. How do they determine the range a guy should cover when positioning is changed by managers as well as parks? How much emphasis do they place on making the normal play? The fact that Bay’s 0 errors compared to Holliday’s 5 might be a huge difference. I still agree it’s the best we got but there also has to be a way to back it out of the stat being measured by what others do. A player can’t control what others do. So if Bay is average but there are 5 players above average he is negative? Does not really make sense to me.
trs86
12/30/2009-11:47pm at 11:47 pm (UTC -4)
Also, do we really think that Alfonso Soriano was a better LF last year than Bay? He committed 11 errors and the only stat he was better in was RngR again I don’t trust that stat yet. Also if you use UZR/150 Bay moves up to about middle of the pack last year with Ryan Braun ranking out worse. I wonder how concerned the Brewers are about his LF defense?
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-11:53pm at 11:53 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t satisfactorily answer any of those questions for myself let alone for someone else.
All I can tell you is, oranges to oranges or left fielder to left fielder, the guys who were actually out there playing that position in the major leagues, Bay is among the worst based on these measures. 8th out of 13 in 1 category, 12th out of 13 in the other 2 categories.
If you wish to maintain a healthy skepticism while investigating further that is wise, but as it stands he and Soriano and Braun contribute to their teams enough with the bat to warrant being put on the field at all. I expect Bay to continue to do so with the Mets, but I don’t expect him to be making game saving plays in the OF. Bear in mind Soriano and Braun were removed from the infield because they were so bad, they cause less damage out in LF.
trs86
12/31/2009-7:49am at 7:49 am (UTC -4)
It might be oranges to oranges but it still does not say Bay is even a bad fielder. All it says is that there are some better. If Beltran hits .285 while 15 guys hit .300+ does that make him a bad hitter?
Again, I wish for a system that has a baseline of average.
prismo
12/31/2009-7:57am at 7:57 am (UTC -4)
Sean Casey who played with Bay on both the Pirates and Red Sox (from Daily News):
Casey also took issue with what he perceives as harsh criticism of Bay’s play in left field. “I can’t stand it,” Casey said. “I’ve heard people say he’s below average, it drives me crazy. He can play there. He’s a solid outfielder.
“This guy is a baseball player. He hits the cutoff man, he takes good routes to the ball. He’s not a random guy who can hit and is just thrown out there.”
darknova306
12/31/2009-12:03am at 12:03 am (UTC -4)
And just remember: Bay at least won’t be embarrassing out there like Murphy was.
GravediggerHebner
12/31/2009-12:13am at 12:13 am (UTC -4)
That is perhaps the most important point of all.
A few weeks back when I and Case and a few others raised some what I considered to be honest, reasonable questions about Bay’s defense, I don’t think any of us ever said he was Murphy-esque.
I was simply coming from the blank canvas perspective. I have LF as a blank canvas, who do want to put on it? In a vacuum I’d prefer someone more speedy, more agile, and even with a better arm while I’m at it.
But will I happily welcome Bay and his likely 30 HR and 100 RBI? Yes. He’s no Murphy out there, and he’s no Adam Dunn either.
darknova306
12/31/2009-12:56am at 12:56 am (UTC -4)
Honestly, if we’re gonna have a guy that strikes out a lot and doesn’t play gold glove defense, I’d rather have Dunn, but I guess that’s an argument for last off-season. Oh well. I’ll have to just get past my distaste for our corner OFers at some point and just accept them.