Update (9:00am Thursday): Someone requested a PNC/Citi Field dimensions comparison graphic, and I aim to please! And hey, lookie…PNC is deeper in left than at Citi Field!
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
If you tune into the radio or read a newspaper today you’ll probably hear some praise regarding the Mets’ agreement with Jason Bay…but you’ll hear much more disdain. Just on my way into work I heard the following quote on Fox Sports Radio, “Jason Bay’s home runs over the Green Monster will land on the warning track in the Grand Canyon of Citi Field.” Aside from claims about his home runs decreasing in New York, a lot will be said about how much more field Bay will need to cover in Citi Field. Because of his “terrible” defense, Bay will probably look like molasses in left field. (this is what I’ve heard and expect to hear over the next several weeks, not my own thoughts)
They say a picture is worth a thousand words, so take a look at this simple dimensions overlay of Fenway Park and Citi Field. (below)
It turns out that some of the claims about the expanded coverage in left field may actually be accurate! The shaded light blue areas in left field represent the extra area Bay will need to cover in 2009 (albeit in only half of his games – which isn’t something to be forgotten). Though since the Green Monster is so much taller than Citi Field’s fence, Bay will have the luxury of chasing down many less carems off the wall. Additionally, with a potentially healthy Carlos Beltran in center, Bay will likely get some extra leeway with balls his to his left (left-center field). If the combination of these two factors don’t make the ballpark comparison a push, they only make Citi Field slightly harder to defend in. Certainly nothing worth breaking out into a sweat and screaming bloody murder over.
But, how will his home runs stack up? Thanks to HitTracker, I was able to overlay Bay’s 2009 home runs onto Citi Field’s dimensions. (below)
Hey, look at that…they’re almost all still homers! I should start off with a disclaimer though – only 15 of these home runs were at home, while 21 were hit in an opposing ballpark. So really, less than half of his home runs are even in question! Though out of the 36 as a whole, 27 (75%) would definitely maintain their HR status in New York, while 32 (89%) would at have had the good possibility of heading out of the park. If we convert those percentages to only his home runs hit at home (if this is getting confusing, I apologize), we find that he would have had between 32 and 34 home runs last season after converting Fenway to Citi Field.
Two to four less home runs…is that what the media is having a field day with? In the course of a season, it’s worth noting, but not much more!
A I wrap this up, here’s another quick disclaimer. While the ballpark shapes I made were drawn from correctly proportioned dimensions graphics, they had to be re-sized to fit with each other (this goes for the home runs as well)…so while my overlays should be a very close fit, they’re probably not an exact fit.
Hopefully this analysis will ease the minds of some readers who may have questioned the Bay signing. I didn’t go into great detail about Bay’s defense, but I highly recommend stopping by MetsMerized and reading this post defending Bay as a left fielder.
141 comments
mrose
12/30/2009-8:59am at 8:59 am (UTC -4)
I think the people screaming about Bay should scream more about the right field fence! lol, I’ve been to Fenway and it seems short, but MAN does that make it look ridiculous!
Lets not forget that Bay also gets 9 games a year in Philly, which is nice for a righty hitter with left field or left center power.
prismo
12/30/2009-9:05am at 9:05 am (UTC -4)
I think the right field fence is a consequence of both Citi Field actually being short there and Fenway being a bit deeper than normal. Though they’re corner is even shorter than ours…I don’t know if that makes up for it or not.
Also, that’s the ONE area of my overlay that I wasn’t happy with. I think it might be ever-so-slightly off, which probably is exaggerating when we see all that yellow. But it’s right field, and for Bay the concerns are left and left-center field anyway.
mrose
12/30/2009-9:03am at 9:03 am (UTC -4)
also, that article about his defense is a great read too
I’m thinking more and more the haters of this deal are Mets fans who are overly frustrated (notice the word overly as we are all frustrated) and Phillies/Sox fans who just can’t stand another team possibly being competitive with them!
Did anyone see the article MLBTR posted about hwo this effects the Phils next year with Werth? http://blogs.delawareonline.com/philledin/2009/12/29/what-bays-deal-means-to-phillies/
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
I read that link last night, and also yesterday checked out a Boston area comment thread. The Phillie fans I give credit to, at least when I was reading the respective threads they were having much more rational reactions than the Red Sox fans.
njstuckintx
12/30/2009-9:13am at 9:13 am (UTC -4)
It all too often that people confuse Citi field and the Mets. One is the field and the other, the team playing on that field.
The field itself was not a black hole of power. Teams hit home runs there. Yes, it’s correct in thinking that this is no bandbox sitting in Cincy or Philly or the other NY, but the balls still leave the park in Flushing.
The Mets, on the other hand, were not a home run hitting team last year, at home or on the road. I just hate hearing that correlating that the Mets weren’t a home run hitting team and they play in Citi Field so, ergo, Citi Field is the place where home runs go to die.
saltygary
12/30/2009-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
Great Piece. What I would also like to see is an overlay with PNC field. Supposedly the LF dimensions are pretty close.
saltygary
12/30/2009-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
For those who don’t have a ESPN Insider account, this is Kieth Law’s take:
Bay will help but won’t solve pitching problem
Tuesday, December 29, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry
The New York Mets needed another impact bat to replace Carlos Delgado, whose 2008 second-half surge was a big part of why the Mets had a lead to blow in the NL East that fall. Jason Bay should be that guy with his plate discipline, power and 200-plus games of experience in the toughest division in the game. Citi Field is a pretty good fit for Bay, as it’s a good park for right-handed power hitters (plus-10 percent versus a neutral NL park, according to this year’s Bill James Handbook).
The question of whether this is a reasonable deal for the Mets or a massive overpay revolves around the question of just how far below average Bay’s left-field defense is. Various advanced defensive metrics, including UZR, all show him as awful during the past three years, starting in his injury-wrecked 2007 season and continuing through his year-plus in Boston. Evaluating defense (quantitatively, that is) in Fenway is difficult because of the park’s unique dimensions in left and center field, and it’s possible that the metrics are all underrating Bay because of that factor. His range is fringe-average, and he reads the ball fine off the bat, but his first move isn’t quick (maybe a remnant of his earlier knee injury), and his arm limits him to left field anyway.
I think there’s a strong chance that Bay will outperform defensive expectations to the point where his salary no longer seems out of line with his performance because he’ll do the things at the plate — get on base and hit for power — that pay the bills.
The move probably pushes Fernando Martinez back to Triple-A, a level where he’s performed well, although the developmental goal for him is to stay healthy rather than show he can hit minor league pitching. Jeff Francoeur most likely will turn back into a pumpkin before the All-Star break, giving Martinez an opening to return to the majors if he’s not on the disabled list.
The bigger problem for the Mets, however, is that Bay can’t pitch, and to start the season, the team plans to run out exactly one starter who’s likely to be playoff-caliber. Mike Pelfrey, for all his promise, took a step back in 2009 with an 84 ERA+ and is just an innings-eater until he misses more bats. John Maine is coming off a half-season ruined by shoulder weakness that could recur at any time. Oliver Perez might not make the Triple-A Syracuse rotation if it weren’t for his contract.
The Mets need another starter if they want to contend in a pretty strong division — the Phillies are the class of the NL, and both the Braves and Marlins are ahead of the Mets on paper — and they’re already over $120 million in commitments for 2010. Yes, the Mets will sign Bengie Molina, but that will only make them worse, not better. This can’t be the end of the Mets’ offseason, else the money spent on Bay — which is likely to be better spent now than in the final year or two of the deal — will go for naught.
The Bay signing leaves Matt Holliday as the only impact hitter on the market, and he won’t sign for a penny less than the five years and $80 million or so Bay probably will get when the fifth year vests. At the same time, his market is limited, and if it’s really just St. Louis chasing him, I would expect the two sides to play chicken for another month. This deal also increases the chances that Johnny Damon has to return to the Yankees with his tail between his legs and take a one- or two-year deal at a big cut from his 2009 salary.
saltygary
12/30/2009-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)
I think it’s pretty fair. Law can usually get pretty harsh with his criticism.
prismo
12/30/2009-9:20am at 9:20 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I agree. I’m surprised at how positivity he viewed the signing (in a good way).
dirtysanchez
12/30/2009-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
yea…cant be mad at that criticism, hes right on. Bay was a good deal but mets need more help.
udontmesswthejohan
12/30/2009-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)
Personally, I was more in favor of the Mets persuing Holliday, but it does not appear that that was ever seriously considered.
As Mrose alluded to above, the people who will complain about this deal are the ones who look at this team and still see a lot of holes. And the truth of the matter is that they are right. This certainly doesn’t fix all the problems with this team. That said, I think it was the right move and lets give the guy some credit. he’s not a one year wonder and he can hit.
He will certainly help the team, but there are still other issues to address. For now though, it feels good to actually have improved the team.
njstuckintx
12/30/2009-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
I concur. It is nice to put a couple of check marks off the shopping list. If they can only ink 1 more pitcher, I think Omar can start getting creative. I want to stipulate that there is still much to do. It’s either my lack of faith in Omar not having tunnel vision or knowing that having another pitcher would ease my fears of relying on Maine, Perez and Neise for 3 spots and only having to rely on them for 2.
Exchanging Castillo would be nice, but it’s not a priority. Getting a catcher, at this current time in the offseason, would be nice, but it’s not a high priority. You really could just let the dominos fall and get the odd man out and have a serviceable catcher for less than Omar would have to pay now. Just saying. Once another Pitcher has been put in that rotation, then Omar can go crazy looking to upgrade other pitching options/2B/C/Bench depth/Etc. Etc.
udontmesswthejohan
12/30/2009-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
Another pitcher would certainly be nice, but at this point it doesn’t look like it’s going to be a “game changing” type of guy.
The market was thin to begin with and with lackey signing so quickly/lack of interest from the Mets it looks like it’s going to have to be Pineiro or take a flier on a guy like Sheets (Wang?). Other than that we are going to have to hope that at least one or two of the Maine/Ollie/Pelfrey triumvirate can return to form.
I would disagree with you slightly on the cathcing position as I think if they can sign Molina to the two year contract that will also help to improve the team considering the lack of help they will get in the pitching department.
njstuckintx
12/30/2009-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
I’m 50/50 on that one. Figuring what Molina will want vs. what he “brings to the table” with helping a pitching staff, I’d think saving money to bring in Torreabla or something comparable and taking the money saved to put towards Sheets or Bedard as a risk/reward type, or Garland for an added #3/4 type to the rotation would be of greater benefit than Molina and having to run with what we have. Granted Omar may sign Molina and then pull off a Zambrano/Meche/Harang/Arroyo/C. Young type trade and he’ll accomplish what he set out to do anyway, but until then, I’d like another SP Security Blanket first.
And other than a healthy Bedard or Sheets, you are right, there are no game changing pitchers out there. A matter of the risk being more or less than the anticipated reward.
Another point of interest or note is Jonathan Sanchez. Isn’t he the West Coast Ollie? Molina didn’t do much to help him progress to where he was supposed to be. Having Lincecum and Cain will help to make any catcher look like he’s doing a good job, no?
udontmesswthejohan
12/30/2009-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
“Isn’t he the West Coast Ollie?”
Haha – well East Coast Ollie never tossed a no-no either.
Honestly, I’m thinking of Molina more from an offensive standpoint. I mean, those 20 HR’s would look pretty nice behind the plate.
I’m also not sure that anyone can save Ollie at this point other than himself. That said, you make some good arguments about looking other places for pitching before catcher.
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
Nice call on Jonathan Sanchez. Although at least he has a no-hitter.
njstuckintx
12/30/2009-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
True, but if I had to guess, of all the Mets, Johan included, Ollie would be the one to throw the no hitter. Tremendous stuff, no brain. Say he goes out partying, gets hammered the day he has to pitch, has a headache the size of his paycheck, and goes out to pitch, can’t overthink stuff cause his brain hurts to much and throws a no no… I could see that happening. Not likely, but I could see it happening.
udontmesswthejohan
12/30/2009-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
Haha.
Honestly though I kind of agree. In fact, I think that this group of Mets starters has a wonderful chance to finally get the first no-no. I can see all of them with the possible exception of Pelfrey throwing a no hitter.
manicmcreynolds
12/30/2009-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
It would have to be the pre-2009 Ollie. Last year, in addition to not getting his slider over (which has been his problem throughout his career), he was throwing his fastball less than 90mph. That’s bad, especially for him.
gategem
12/30/2009-3:43pm at 3:43 pm (UTC -4)
“Isn’t he the West Coast Ollie?â€
I’m not sure if Yogi Berra or Johnny Bench behind the plate would make much of a difference with Ollie or Sanchez. Too bad Dr. Phil can’t catch.LOL
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-9:22am at 9:22 am (UTC -4)
Thanks prismo. One thing I question about using hit tracker to compare home runs is how to take the height of the wall into account.
For example if two stadiums have a left field dimension of 330 but one has a wall of 8 feet and the other of 25 feet, the ball that was a homer in the first may not be in the second.
njstuckintx
12/30/2009-9:36am at 9:36 am (UTC -4)
Good point. I wondered the same thing.
Hazmet
12/30/2009-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
You hit the nail on the head as usual Case. Mitch Williams on MLB Network Hot Stove last night made the statement that Bay’s HR’s probably would increase since he has more of a line drive stroke and that many HR’s at Fenway were taken away by the Green Monster. They showed a clip of Bay jumping down the first baseline screaming get over at a wall scraper which was kind of amusing. Now, I can’t stand Mitch Williams being an ex-Phil and all and you never can tell how a player’s skill translates to a park till there in it, but it was refreshing to hear someone make playing in Citifield not seem like a death sentence for power numbers. In may not be friendly in the Cold but when the summer heat kicked in balls seemed to be flying out pretty good. I’m also not expecting 36 dingers from Bay’s high last year but between Citi and 9 games in CBP I’d think 25-30 for Bay could be had.
Hazmet
12/30/2009-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
PS – Real nice work Prismo, outstanding.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
Mitch Williams is a homer… he picked the Phillies to win the WS in 5!!
dirtysanchez
12/30/2009-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
Awesome job prismo. Now if we could find a way to translate your findings over the radio waves, we can cut down on ignorance lol…..hey one can dream ;p
fongy2
12/30/2009-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
Good job here Prismo.Bay hit more HRs on the road than at home as you stated
so this would seem to be a non issue.
Also, The green monster is over 37 feet high so how many Homers were turned into singles or doubles.
As far as his defense, the guy may not
be the fastest player in the world but
catches everything he gets to.
Zero errors last season and, I believe
22 in his career. Isn’t part of why Beltran makes so much money is because
of how much ground he covers in CF?
We’ll be fine with Bay in Left…until
next season when we can move him to
RF to accomidate Carl Crawford in Left!
Overall this was a very good move by Omar! I hope he doesn’t screw it up
by giving Molina two years.
Further, since this team is built to win now, He’s got to go find a solid #2 SP. If theres any truth to Zambrano
being avail, he must explore it!
Even if it meant parting with the likes of FMart!
udontmesswthejohan
12/30/2009-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
You mean screw it up by giving Molina 3 years, right? No way they are going to get him for anything less than 2.
Now that the mets have finally signed someone and it looks like they are close to agreeing with molina, I think you are right in giving Omar some credit for holding to his horses on the 5th year for Bay (although I believe there is an option) and the thrid year for Molina.
As far as Zambrano, yes you have to do your due diligence, I just worry about the injuries. That said he and Johan would make a very nice one, two punch and we can forget the failed experiment of Pelfrey as a #2.
metsfan4decades
12/30/2009-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
Interesting…..
I’ve been reading more concerning criticism on Bay’s defense and what it will mean in Citi than I have about a power drop off. I think we all know he’s no Beltran out there in the OF, but does anyone really think he’ll cost us games out there with his defense?
Speaking of Beltran, if I remember correctly, the Mets were far from his first choice as well, back when. He wanted to go to NY, but cross town. Now? He’s been quoted as saying how much he likes the organization and he’d like to finish his career here. I think it’s fair to asssume from all we’ve been reading that the Mets weren’t Bay’s first choice either. In fact, if stories are to be taken as truth, he finally signed with the Mets to avoid having the Pirates left as maybe the only suitors Yikes!
In the long run, maybe Bay will have the same change of heart. Don’t believe everything you read, Jason, about the Mets and their clubhouse. I think Franceour should be front and center on his welcome wagon. There’s a guy who has nothing but good things to say in the 1/2 year he’s been here….
fongy2
12/30/2009-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
Agreed! From all I gather as
someone who reads the Pittsburgh papers daily and
from watching the talking heads
on The MLB network(which are by
far the best of them), Bay is
a professional in every way.
He make his decision and I can’t believe he’d come here
and be a Bradley/Guillen type
P.I.T.A..
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
Excellent post Prismo. Glad to see you’re finally putting all that math and science to some practical use
Fongy I agree 100% with your thoughts in this comment. However it translates (or doesn’t) to the won-loss record remains to be seen, but with the happy-go-lucky Francoeur instead of the woe-is-me Church, and the solid citizen Bay instead of timebomb-history of Sheffield, the clubhouse will be a much more even tempered place.
How long before we start to hear complaints that they’re not excitable enough?
fongy2
12/30/2009-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
Pretty soon by
the likes of
Sherman,Klapish
and the rest of
the Met haters
in the press.
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Led by King Hater Wallace Matthews.
gategem
12/30/2009-3:46pm at 3:46 pm (UTC -4)
What’s interesting about Wallace is that he grew up in Queens and was a passionate Mets fan.
dirtysanchez
12/30/2009-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
they have no heart guys…they have no grit
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
Maybe I’m wrong but “heart” and “grit” have always been thinly veiled code words for “white” the way I read them.
If that’s true, Bay & Frenchy’s skeletons are wrapped in grit and heart. With Wright and Murph on the field, 50% of the lineup is gritty hearty. How could a GM whose name ends in a vowel let this happen?
dirtysanchez
12/30/2009-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
hahaha i always thought they were thinly veiled code for “winning” but im sure omar gave the other 50% of the lineup the sammy sosa cream for xmas ;p
udontmesswthejohan
12/30/2009-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
Ding…Ding…Ding..
Grave hit the nail on the head. Just don’t say it too loudly.
manicmcreynolds
12/30/2009-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Jeff Kent: Milton Bradley’s got no heart, no grit.
Bradley: Go read your motocross magazine, honky.
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-11:25am at 11:25 am (UTC -4)
A guy whose name ends in “L-E-Y” should know that it’s “honKEY.”
Or should I just start referring to him as Milton Bradly?
metsfan4decades
12/30/2009-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Just wait until Bay gets a look at Reyes in that dugout. LOL.
If Reyes comes back fully healthy and returns to pre 2009 form (re: his enthusiasm for the game), along with the rest of the cast of characters, it’ll be fun to watch once again….
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
I think his defensive skill or lack there of have been overstated. Sure he’s no Beltran, but he still has decent speed and should be better than Murphy/Tatis/Sheff combo.
udontmesswthejohan
12/30/2009-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
I never put much stock into the whole “he doesn’t want to play here” stuff. It’s all just hyperbole from the media (“he’d rather play in Beirut than for the Mets – Gammons”) or a bargaining chip by the player and his agent. At the end of the day, with very few exceptions, these guys will play in Beirut if the money is right and don’t think otherwise for a moment.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
Cool findings Prismo.
gonzowill
12/30/2009-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
Prismo you have set the bar to a new high, great article. I hope Bay comes to spring training ready to run, it looks like Death Valley out in left field at Citi.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
It seems that you guys have had all this discussion yesterday, but would you trade FMart, Pagan and a pitching prospect (Mejia perhaps?) for Carlos Zambrano?
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
And go get Endy as the 4th/defensive replacement OF?
fongy2
12/30/2009-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
I would do that in a second!
And wouldn’t worry too
much about defensive replacements for the
OF. Thats something which is easy enough
to find in any bargain bin.
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
First my disclaimer that I’m terrible at trying to assess packages of minor leaguers to trade for major league talent. Having said that, I’d prefer not to. After 5 straight years of over 209 IP he’s been down to 188 and 169 the last 2 years. If I’m giving up those guys I’d hope to do it for someone a bit less round, with a more reasonable contract, and not on a 2 year decline.
dirtysanchez
12/30/2009-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
SI_JonHeyman
zambrano trade rumors a time waster. he has no-trade clause, and his agents still say he’s staying with #cubs. #metspipedream
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
Yeah I read that too, but I think it’s worth a try
metsfan4decades
12/30/2009-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
Tough one.
I’m not sure I’m ready to give up on FMart just yet – at least not for Zambrano.
There’s the Franceour ? mark. Trading Pagan might be risky as he’s a damn fine 4th OF who might be needed if Franceour reverts back to pre ’09 Met form and/or Beltran is injured.
And if that does come to pass, and FMart can finally stay healthy enough to get a good look-see at him in triple A, he might just be the corner OF for 2011.
Zambrano has a no trade clause and has been said he doesn’t want to leave Chicago. With his personality, if somehow the Cubs can force that trade and he really doesn’t want to be here, that could get ugly.
He’s got talent, no doubt about it. But his stats for the past couple of years with declines in certain areas scare me.
Could be a very good move as much as it could be a really dumb one, IMO. Not sure how I feel about it but if you put a gun to my head, I’d probably say ‘Pass’……
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
I really think that the Mets are going to look for a #2 type SP via trade. And I see Carlos Zambrano as that type of SP. Perhaps the change of scenery can revitalize him to pitch well.
I agree with you on Frenchy, but I think Zambrano would be a good fit with the Mets.
njstuckintx
12/30/2009-10:51am at 10:51 am (UTC -4)
Uff da. I’m not sure I would do that. For the decline he’s been on and the money owed… Plus the FA crop next year… I’d still love to have Big Z, but you, sir, have asked a tough question.
I’d have to see if you could work in Castillo for sure or Ollie, ideally.
steveo
12/30/2009-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
In reguards to bays defense I would have really liked to see the comparisons to pittsburg in which I believe is similar to citi in many ways. Look bay aint nbo gold glover but how many left fielders are?
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
With the exception of 2006 Bay has been a negative fielder every year based on sabermetric formulas.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1717&position=OF#fielding
in 2009 only 13 LF played enough to qualify, and 8 of them were negative fielders.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2009&month=0
fongy2
12/30/2009-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, its a easte of time since
Zambrano won’t be traded.
Omar is gonna have to come up with something though.
We need a solid #2 or at worst, a real good #3.
Since there are no FAs who meet
that profile, some of you may have to get used to the idea that FMart,Holt,
Meijia, even Davis may be a goner.
We’re gonna need to put together a solid package to attract interest.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
I agree. Unless Omar thinks he can get away with signing Pineiro as the #2/3.
If not via trade, I would really want to see Omar getting Sheets/Bedard/Wang with lots of incentives. Why not sign Barajas or Olivo to 1+1 contract and save money to take a chance on Sheets/Bedard/Wang?
$4M guaranteed plus incentive to go to $10M or so with Sheets and Bedard. Little less for Wang.
njstuckintx
12/30/2009-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
3 snaps in Z formation!
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
What you say about getting used to this solid package going elsewhere makes a lot of sense Fongy. But…
Recently Omar was a guest speaker at a Roberto Clemente celebratory dinner and took a few Met questions. When asked what his 2010 starting rotation looked like, he responded “Santana, Pelfrey, Maine, Perez, Niese, and possibly a free agent.”
http://www.nysportsday.com/2009/12/27/talking-baseball-with-mets-gm-omar-minaya/
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
I hope that the ‘possibly a free agent’ is not Escobar
fongy2
12/30/2009-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
Thanks Heb, I had read this before though.
I think I like Piniero more than many others
here.I don’t think his career has been
nearly as inconsistant as
many feel.
He was a top prospect who in
his first couple seasons
was a very good
2/3 starter for The M’s,started to have arm problems which
lead to 3/4 seasons of bad
pitching and after regaining
his health and strength in the
arm,has gotten his curve ball
back AND with the help of Duncan,returned to being a pretty good #3.
NOW, I don’t think hes worth
3/30…or more,
BUT in this day
and age,thats
what a guy in his position
gets. So…..
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
You like him more than me. But even if I pretend to have faith that he is back to being that major league player many expected when he was a prospect, I don’t want to add such a pronounced ground ball/contact pitcher to the staff with the question mark defense at 1B and the awful defense at 2B.
If Castillo is switched out for a positive defender at 2B, I welcome Pineiro. Until then, I don’t want to be around for his nervous breakdown when another “easy out” rolls into shallow RF for a base hit.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
I’m pretty sure Omar thinks Luis is a good defensive 2B
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
Oi!
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
The thing I don’t like Piniero is the fact he’s looking for 3+ years contract. With the SP FA Market next year, I’d rather find a 1 year SP and try to get guys like Beckette or Webb.
fongy2
12/30/2009-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
That doesn’t help us in 2010 AND this team is built for now.
manicmcreynolds
12/30/2009-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
Great post! Nice graphics!
Glad you linked to the article about taking UZR #’s with a grain of salt. Obsessing over that arcana rains on what should be a parade, because this is a great signing.
An All-Star in his prime agrees to 4 years (+ vest)? Superb way to maintain flexibility for next year’s hot stove, improve immediate chances, and refrain from mortgaging the future.
Phew!
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-11:11am at 11:11 am (UTC -4)
I’ll be Devil’s advocate to ManicMcReynolds’ post:
Lets not sigh with relief just yet. The Red Sox head trainer had such strong reservations about Bay’s knee and shoulder that he recommended against them re-signing him.
It’s still possible (not saying likely) that Bay will fail his physical.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Michael Kay says this a lot. No team knows more about Bay’s health than BoSox. But they were willing to go 4 years on him, which means that he is relatively healthy and can be trusted for 3-4 years.
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
Fair point.
I think a fair retort to that fair point is the AL has the DH.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
Fair point!
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
Okay, so where we getting pitching from? Seems like the options are:
1. 2nd Tier Solid Pitcher – Davis, Garland, Washburn
2. Top Tier Injury Risk Pitcher – Bedard, Sheets, Wang
3. Trade Market – Arroyo, Harang, Zambrano, Meche
4. From Within – Figgy, Parnell, Misch, Nieve, Niese
My plan would be to target the injury risk hoping to get one on the cheap. If not, then the dependable pitcher and hope a top tier guy comes available mid-season. I’m intrigued with the trade market but wouldn’t want to lose our good prospects when we could use them soon.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
I thought if Omar wants just Arroyo, it’s a done deal. I really like Arroyo. He has an expiring contract and can be a solid #3.
I’d want to try Arroyo AND Top Tier Injury Risk pitcher… but I assume that Luis’ contract would need to go.
dirtysanchez
12/30/2009-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
lol…real is that you? Have you hijacked cases s/n?
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
ha, that is very real like
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
Case was that an omission or do you truly consider Davis and Washburn to be more solid than Pineiro?
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
Pineiro has priced himself out of the solid but cheap category.
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
I guess I’ll visit the optometrist, I still don’t see “cheap” in your categories.
fongy2
12/30/2009-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
I agree with you Heb on Piniero. Thats the pinch we’re in with
our D, which I don’t think will be bad BUT
clearly won’t be the early 80s Cardinals
either. This is also the problem with Garland.
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
I agree but the reasons I prefer Garland are threefold: more consistent career, misses more bats, less pronounced GB pitcher.
saltygary
12/30/2009-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
After last season I am too rattled when it comes to an injury risk option. I was real happy with the Escobar signing, but I dont want a couple more.
An Arroyo or Meche would be good adds. Does Meche have 1 or 2 years left on that crazy contract? Probably could put Castillo in the mix, on the Meche deal.
Of course I would love Zambrano behind Santana but that is a long shot with his no-trade plus the Mets would have to give up some nice pieces.
Kingman 26
12/30/2009-1:23pm at 1:23 pm (UTC -4)
I am sure we could trade Wright to KC for Meche–maybe if we threw in a few more guys??
saltygary
12/30/2009-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
Now your just being mean.
Kingman 26
12/30/2009-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
Oh come on, we can have fun with it, no?
I mean, I didn’t bring it up. A second time.
saltygary
12/30/2009-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
Oh no worries, I’m always having fun and will never get offended.
I just get a kick on how touchy people get with the notion of trading the Mets Jesus.
fongy2
12/30/2009-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
The problem with the quasi-top
tier guys are that they all
are as questionable as Maine
and Ollie. Davis is not a very good Pitcher and his control problems can be as bad as Ollie’s most of the time.
Washburn has had one good half season of baseball in about the
past 5or6 yrs now.
Garland,who I like, is a solid
innings guy BUT too much like
Pelfrey in that he Pitches to
contact and this won’t be a great defensive team, So…..
I don’t like any of the injured
Pitchers,Bedard,Sheets,Wang for
us. Too much hoping and praying
and hoping that even if they do
return,they return as the Pitchers they once were.
I don’t think Zambrano will be
traded BUT do think Meche AND
Chris Young could easily be
acquired IF Omar was willing
to give up a top prospect or
two.
The best case scenario would
of course be Arroyo&Phillips
for Castillo,FMart&Niese BUT
that ain’t gonna happen.
For TRS, Harang is looking better and better to me
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
From the categories, my preferences:
1. Garland. He’s the most consistent of the 3. I keep reading that he wants to stay on the West Coast so if he just won’t come here, it’s a toss up between Davis who misses more bats but leans toward ground ball pitcher versus Washburn who misses fewer bats but is a fly ball pitcher. If Castillo replaced by better defender I go Davis, if not, Washburn.
2. Sheets. By a mile. Bedard’s a head case and Wang doesn’t miss enough bats and is waaaay too pronounced a GB pitcher to succeed with Castillo around.
3. Arroyo. Is healthy, misses enough bats and is pretty even in GB/FB ratio. Harang is pretty similar but has the injury bug. Zambrano is probably a pipe dream and Meche, while he does miss enough bats has been becoming a more pronounced GB pitcher and is coming off shoulder issues.
4. Niese or Nieve. Nieve is less of a GB pitcher than Niese but small samples for both and love the home grown kid story. Parnell needs more work as a SP and we’ve had the Figgy discussion ad nauseum. He’s a fine fall back, hopefully we won’t fall back that far.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/30/2009-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
Heyman said this morning that the Mets people he spoke to are leery of Sheet’s health, since the Mets have had little injury troubles last year.
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
So you like Arroyo the most?
Do you have any confidence in Castillo improving his D since he’s two summers removed from surgery and will have help from Murph and Reyes, so he won’t need to move as much?
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-2:24pm at 2:24 pm (UTC -4)
I didn’t really take it that next step but I think that’s accurate.
Arroyo doesn’t have the health question, has a useful K/9 ratio and GB/FB ratio, isn’t grossly overpaid and has thrived in a NE fishbowl market, so yes. Plus he plays guitar, sings, likes grunge, is named after Charles Bronson, and has long hair. And dreamy eyes…
Look in these eyes and tell me you don’t hear “Interstate Love Song” by Stone Temple Pilots in your head.
http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/B-54SkFBr0X/Cincinnati+Reds+Photo+Day/0MIP_Owd11D/Bronson+Arroyo
manicmcreynolds
12/30/2009-2:43pm at 2:43 pm (UTC -4)
Funny. I do think he’s an interesting cat. His “essay” about supplements (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/reds/2009-08-12-arroyo-cover-unconcerned_N.htm) showed some chutzpah, even if it included an ill-conceived DUI analogy. (You probably won’t end up killing OTHERS by taking PEDs.)
I think Harang is more of an intimidator, but concerns about his health are legitimate.
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-2:57pm at 2:57 pm (UTC -4)
Does Harang wear eyeliner or is that a natural look?
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-3:48pm at 3:48 pm (UTC -4)
I thought it was because you were advocating for a non-Hernandez Cuban.
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-3:51pm at 3:51 pm (UTC -4)
Bonus!
Kingman 26
12/30/2009-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed!
Sign Garland and Sheets if at all possible, and then we have Johan and Garland, and Sheets/Pelf/Maine/Ollie/Nieve/Niese to compete for three spots. OK Case, and Figgy can come to tryouts too….
Or Sheets and Arroyo.
Just say NO to Pineiro unless he dangles into 2008 Hudson/Abreu territory—if he eventually can be had for 1/8–10 or 2/15, sign him up.
And the offseason will have been a potentially excellent one.
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
Figgy will win 20 games…in Buffalo.
I highly doubt Omar will sign 2 Starters.
Ollie has his contract. So does Maine. Pelf is young w/ upside. Unless, one of these 3 go in a trade, I don’t see Omar signing more than 1 starter.
Kingman 26
12/30/2009-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
Probably right on all counts (well, major league counts)…I would not be surprised to see Omar avoid the Sheets/Bedard options and get one of Arroyo/Pineiro/Garland. And Pelf/Ollie/Maine get one more go-round here.
But still, while pitching wins for sure, Pelf will win a lot more games giving up 4-5 runs with
Reyes/Castillo/Wright/Beltran/Bay/
Francoeur/Murphy/Molina/P.
And for me, while not ideal, I will be very happy with this offseason.
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
though Omar will be accused of not covering all the holes (#2 SP).
Kingman 26
12/30/2009-2:17pm at 2:17 pm (UTC -4)
Perhaps, but not by me.
I am psyched for the season already.
Perhaps you’ve noticed the kind of season the Nets are having and the Dolphins not showing up for the first half the last two weeks and throwing a playoff spot right down the toilet…spring training cannot get here soon enough.
manicmcreynolds
12/30/2009-2:36pm at 2:36 pm (UTC -4)
I humbly suggest some of you are trying too hard to AVOID a GB pitcher.
To wit: a groundball hit hard is generally a single, whereas a fly hit hard is a homer.
If you don’t think Pineiro’s worth the money (i.e. fluke season), that’s fine. But to claim that you’d sign him if it were, say, Nick Punto at 2B instead of Luis, well, that’s splitting hairs.
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-3:06pm at 3:06 pm (UTC -4)
Having gone bald splitting hairs is something I no longer can do.
But seriously, I just don’t see the merit in adding a pronounced ground ball pitcher to the team with Luis Castillo and at best the uncertainty of Murphy at 1B. Signing Delgado would not help as he & Castillo would be even worse.
The hard ground ball that becomes a single does so in any park, the hard fly ball may not become a homer 81 times a year at home, or on the road in a number of parks.
I’m a recent convert to the merits of sound defense so I am not well versed in it but I certainly am fond of it and I previously did extensive research on Jason Marquis, a pronounced GB pitcher, and showed that his worst season (based on multiple of his statistics) came in the same year he had his worst fielding 2B behind him.
All of Marquis’ statistically better years coincided with his having a plus defender behind him at 2B. I don’t see why a similar thought process would not apply to any other RH GB pitcher. So until convinced with contrary evidence otherwise I consider my feelings about this more than simple hair splitting.
manicmcreynolds
12/30/2009-5:27pm at 5:27 pm (UTC -4)
That’s fine but it’s still circumstantial. What if BABIP vs. Marquis during his worst season didn’t differ greatly from his mean BABIP, and it was an accelerated BB rate that inflated his ERA/WHIP . . . and/or his K rate went down, so the same BABIP produced more hits . . .
If (a healthy) Brandon Webb wanted to sign with the Mets, you’d sign him regardless of your infield.
If a front office desires Pineiro given a hypothetical league-average infield, then they shouldn’t avoid him because their projected starting IF is below average. Among other contingencies, what if your sub-par 2B goes down and you have to call up a light-hitting minor leaguer who flashes rare leather?
I like your pinpoint analysis and emphasis on D. And you’re right that Castillo next to Delgado in 2010 could be worse than ever at closing the 3-4 hole. I’m just saying that, when comparing Harang/Arroyo/Davis/Garland/whomever, stats and health and scouting should outweigh gb/fb ratio by a considerable margin.
“The hard ground ball that becomes a single does so in any park, the hard fly ball may not become a homer 81 times a year at home, or on the road in a number of parks.”
and we’ll all prefer those singles when visiting Philly, Cincy, etc.
metfreak
12/30/2009-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
I am happy we at least made a big signing I rather have Holliday but as long as we don’t stop at Bay and get a good pitcher as well. What is killing me are these fans and media its like dam if you do and dam if you don’t with the Mets so if Bay signed with the RedSox’s for 60 million for 4 then its a good deal but since he signed for 66 with the Mets then its a so so deal and now all of a sudden he has bad knees and shoulders
njstuckintx
12/30/2009-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
The Mets have become the Red (or Orange) headed stepchildren of the league. It’s better/easier to slam the Mets than it is to praise them to sticking to a plan and filling the holes, one by one. While we would have preferred the holes to be filled in the SP, SP, LF, C, RP, 2B order, they are getting filled. Everyone says Lackey to Boston is soooo good, yet if the Mets signed him, here they would come with the injury history, not proven in the playoffs, etc. etc. Crock o’ the stinky stuff if you ask me.
metfreak
12/30/2009-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
Yes thats my point I am so happy I am not the only one to see this If the Mets sign Lackey forget about it I mean they would make him the second coming of Carl Pavano
Kingman 26
12/30/2009-1:44pm at 1:44 pm (UTC -4)
I TOTALLY agree with you both here…it is so obviously true. So many of the major media are Yank or Red Sox fans, their bias is comical. Yeah, the Sox offer Bay a deal, we offer 10% more, he comes here, and the Mets singed damaged goods. What a JOKE!
If we have the great season this group of players has in them, I am not sure which will be sweetest—watching the Mets win, shutting up the reporters, or shutting up the Los Mets/Omar’s An Idiot/Wilpons Don’t Spend or Care/The Franchise is a Shambles/Etc people.
Oh, it is going to be a sweet year if everyone is healthy.
Kingman 26
12/30/2009-2:46pm at 2:46 pm (UTC -4)
Prismo–
Really fantastic, well-conceived piece!
Really a great job.
Loved the story defending Bay’s defense—I agree completely. No Gold Glover but no butcher either….my argument weeks ago was precisely that a guy with 1 error and 19 assists in 199 games in LF at Fenway just cannot be THAT bad.
fongy2
12/30/2009-2:52pm at 2:52 pm (UTC -4)
Hey! Wass-up man!
Hope you had a Merry Christmas!
All I want to know is: Can a
package of Castillo,Maine,FMart&Niese
Land us Victor Zambrano and
Mike Fontenot???
Kingman 26
12/30/2009-3:15pm at 3:15 pm (UTC -4)
Hey Fong!
Had a great holiday week thus far and sincerely hope you have too.
I like Bay, and for two years, I like Molina some too.
I would love the good Zambrano, but I think these rumors may be just too good to be true…that deal would be something!
Imagine if Omar got Bay, Zambrano, and Molina to go with Igarashi and a hopefully healthy Escobar?
fongy2
12/30/2009-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
I had a great
Christmas!
Thank You Sir.
Yeah, I agree
the Zambrano thing is too good to be true
BUT since this is the season
of hope,…..
Well,you know.
You know,I’m not big on this Molina thing BUT with
Bay now here,I
can see it happening.
Omar must find a way to get us a solid #2or
#3 veteran pitcher who can
be counted on.
If so, It will have been a real bang-up off-season for
him.
fongy2
12/30/2009-3:26pm at 3:26 pm (UTC -4)
B/T/W,
Don’t forget R.A.Dickey!
Kingman 26
12/30/2009-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
I was trying to!!
rustyjr
12/30/2009-4:22pm at 4:22 pm (UTC -4)
from a putz to a lame dickey !!! btw kong did u like the dickies?
saltygary
12/30/2009-3:02pm at 3:02 pm (UTC -4)
Yea even the most negative articles on the trade all believed he will be better defensively than advertised. And I know it has been brought up before but Sheffield was out their much of last season. If he can do it then Bay will be looking like Andru Jones out there.
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
Could’ve had Andruw Jones weeks ago for half a mil. Just sayin’.
saltygary
12/30/2009-3:16pm at 3:16 pm (UTC -4)
I had a hard time with Glavine wearing a Mets uniform. Having Andruw in a Mets uniform would be right up there with Bonilla getting offered a coaching position in my book.
Kingman 26
12/30/2009-3:13pm at 3:13 pm (UTC -4)
Bay will look like Andruw compared with non-outfielder Murph and Mr Anti-Baseball Instincts Pagan.
fongy2
12/30/2009-3:34pm at 3:34 pm (UTC -4)
My last words on the subject
of our new knuckler,
If we have to
depend on too
much Dickey
this season…
We’re screwed!
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-3:46pm at 3:46 pm (UTC -4)
Which Met reliever broke Jason Bay’s wrist in 2003?
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-3:48pm at 3:48 pm (UTC -4)
Trick question, as he (the reliever) wasn’t with the Mets when it happened.
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-3:51pm at 3:51 pm (UTC -4)
I wonder if guys hold grudges for these types of things. Would make for an interesting reunion.
Kingman 26
12/30/2009-3:50pm at 3:50 pm (UTC -4)
I think it may have been Dessens, on some other team….
GravediggerHebner
12/30/2009-3:51pm at 3:51 pm (UTC -4)
Keep their lockers on opposite sides of the room.
rustyjr
12/30/2009-4:24pm at 4:24 pm (UTC -4)
bay will throw him in the flushing bay lol btw kong u and bay have a connection – pearl jam !
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-4:07pm at 4:07 pm (UTC -4)
Past 3 seasons WAR:
Meche 10.9
Harang 9.5
Zambrano 9.2
Bedard 8.4
Garland 7.9
Arroyo 6.9
Sheets 6.6
Davis 6.5
Wang 6.5
Pineiro 6.2
Washburn 5.4
Kelvim Escobar 5.3
rustyjr
12/30/2009-4:24pm at 4:24 pm (UTC -4)
Meche is a decent pitcher – i just couldnt pencil him in as johans number 2
CaseStreet
12/30/2009-4:51pm at 4:51 pm (UTC -4)
Aside from injury concerns, his peripherals look pretty good, if you know what I mean.
7.03 K/9
3.13 BB/9
3.97 FIP (Puts him ahead of Zambrano and Harang and slightly behind Lackey and Burnett).
Looks close to a 2. Plus, with the move from the AL, you know.
mikemattone
12/31/2009-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
You all should know my Gil Meche love by now but what about Garland being up there? Can we tell him Citi Field is on the West End of Long Island, since he wants to play for a team in the west? He’s not a 2, but he won’t cost us prospects or too much mula.
CaseStreet
12/31/2009-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
Garland is def preferable to Davis and Washburn.
DNDJohan aka kistics
12/31/2009-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
TRS brought up an excellent point last night. Bay’s UZR stats may have been skewed because of the ball park factor. Manny has always been the worst LF according to UZR stats when he was playing for the BoSox. But his stats improved dramatically as soon as he was traded to the Dodgers.
stickguy
12/31/2009-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
that PNC overlay I think points out where some of DW’s HRs went to die: RCF.
It is big out there, which isn’t going to help a RH gap hitter (well, for doubles it could!)
GravediggerHebner
12/31/2009-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
Thanks for the PNC update Priz!
This is not my original idea, but I think the wall depth is fine and should not be altered, especially not as a reaction to 1 season in the park with a depleted roster that didn’t hit many HR. But I agree with the thought that I know I read on another blog and may well have read above in this thread (not going through 130 comments to check) which is this:
Lower the height of the wall around the whole stadium to make it conducive to both a few more HR instead of doubles, but also and more importantly to make it conducive to HR saving catches at the wall.
GravediggerHebner
12/31/2009-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
For everyone who can’t sleep at night because they are so filled with bile about UZR, you should check out this article. Also IMO TRDMB should consider adding this guy to the blogroll, he writes some informative interesting stuff and has a great fake picture of Jeff Francoeur being attacked by a bear in the OF.
http://www.patrickfloodblog.com/2009/12/mythbusters-2009-mets-defense.html
CaseStreet
12/31/2009-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
sorry Grave, that guy makes a HUGE mistake in his analysis.
He treats UZR runs and actual runs as if they were the same. It’s apples and oranges. You can’t add a -47 UZR and 32 actual runs. That’s silly!
He also makes it seem as if every ball was hit off the Citi Field walls, therefore throwing off range numbers. I’m sure many were, but I’d say those were few compared to the amount that dropped in the field.
Also, he prefers Runs Saved to UZR. Here’s an article explaining the faults with Runs Saved:
http://ussmariner.com/2009/03/13/ms-defense-and-the-fielding-bible/
GravediggerHebner
12/31/2009-3:22pm at 3:22 pm (UTC -4)
No need to apologize to me, I’m one of your fellow UZR supporters even while admitting I know little about it. It’s based in science and math and while my background and education in those things is not great, I trust the process of hypothesis and experiment. I just posted this to give the people who can’t say much more about their doubts about UZR than “Uh, I dunno” something else to support their doubt, however dubious it may be. I like debate and will admit it if I’m wrong about something. The more people argue for and against sabermetrics with and around me, the more I’ll learn.
The “I just don’t trust it” sentiment about UZR is getting old with me. UZR and other sabermetrics have been around for 8 years now. If people are going to rail against them my hope is they’ll do so on a more factual, less (lack of) faith-based basis.
Hopefully this doesn’t sound too much like or ever get too much like creation/evolution, that’s not a discussion I want to have in a sports blog, but sometimes that’s what a sabermetric discussion feels like to me.
CaseStreet
12/31/2009-8:20pm at 8:20 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, I have no problem with people doubting UZR if they have some facts to back it up in a logical sense. The author of the article, seems to think that UZR runs and a run scored in an actual game are the same thing. They obviously are not. However, the average person reading the article may not catch that mistake and will assume the guy knows what he’s talking about.
saltygary
12/31/2009-12:55pm at 12:55 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks for fulfilling my request!!!!
Bay is is going to be just fine out there. An upgrade from Murph/Sheff and hopefully a healthy Beltran backing him up.
Happy New Years Everyone!
charlie_s
12/31/2009-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
Prismo, fantastic work.
metsfan4decades
12/31/2009-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
Very cool….
We’ve improved LF considering how we started out in ’09. Not picking on Murph, but oh he was just painful to watch out in LF. I’ll give him an ‘A’ for effort but not much else out there.
As we’ve seen with Bay, he might not be the fastest thing with two legs but everything he gets to, well, he gets. We’re not likely to see dropped fly balls out there. As soon as he gets used to how LF plays at Citi – and as an experienced LF it shouldn’t take him long, he’ll be looking very good out there.
metsfan4decades
12/31/2009-6:31pm at 6:31 pm (UTC -4)
Finally, a realistic, non biased look at the Bay signing and events leading up to it, plus a small analysis on how this might work out for the Mets – from a Boston blog writer, no less.
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/31/why-the-bay-deal-made-sense-for-both-sides/