According to a tweet from Jerry Crasnick of ESPN, the Mets and Red Sox have discussed a possible trade involving Mike Lowell & Luis Castillo. He adds “Not sure how serious it is.”
A tip of the TRDMB cap to Howard Megdal of MLBTradeRumors for the hint, who points out that Castillo is owed $12 million over the next 2 years whereas Lowell is owed $12 million for 2010, making it equal in terms of salary.
Lowell, left, chatting with new Met Jason Bay (#44)
- Fellow TRDMB author Mr. North Jersey wonders “…if we send Castillo to Boston for Lowell would Boston then be doing this as part of a bigger trade that would then send Pedroia to San Diego in return for Gonzalez?” What do you think folks?
Update
Red Sox ink Adrian Beltre for 2 years. 9 mill for 2010 and a 5 mil option for 2011(1 mill buyout)
97 comments
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-8:13pm at 8:13 pm (UTC -4)
So I have to ask then if we send Castillo to Boston for Lowell would Boston then be doing this as part of a bigger trade that would then send Pedroia to San Diego in return for Gonzalez?
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-8:19pm at 8:19 pm (UTC -4)
Possible, since I just remembered the Sox signed Scutaro for SS which makes the earlier off season discussion about Pedroia moving to SS moot. In fact, I’m just going to delete that part of the post.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-8:34pm at 8:34 pm (UTC -4)
I just read about 75 comments at MLBTR and no one has hit on this angle yet. I would love to chump them with it but I’m not registered with MLBTR’s new system.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-8:37pm at 8:37 pm (UTC -4)
Metsblog has yet to touch this angle also.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-8:41pm at 8:41 pm (UTC -4)
I just registered with MLBTR via Disqus and posted it. So thanks for the idea, hope you don’t mind that I stole it. I await the firestorm. I can’t believe they got 78 comments into it @ MLBTR and no one had thought of this, everyone was posting about how it helps the Sox with the luxury tax since they just signed Beltre.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-8:46pm at 8:46 pm (UTC -4)
Stole it? Don’t entertain such a thought.
I was just able to post my thought before you that’s all. Curious to see now what kind of replies you generate.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-9:06pm at 9:06 pm (UTC -4)
The 4 people who’ve noticed all hate the idea, pretty much think it’s insane. They suggest Pedroia is the kind of guy you just don’t trade.
Everyone suggests it’s strictly for luxury tax purposes, but no one realizes that trading Pedroia for AGonz saves the Red Sox money for the luxury tax.
None of them threatened to kill me at least.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-9:18pm at 9:18 pm (UTC -4)
LoL I have a lot of respect for Boston and I just can’t believe that the best way for them to get 6 million off the payroll is trading Lowell for Castillo when they have Pedroia and Scutaro at 2nd and ss.
The 6 million that seems to be suggested as needed to get under the luxury tax is not a lot of money to move if that really is the case to begin with.
I just think if these rumors are true that I am finding harder and harder to believe then we are missing a key piece of the puzzle.
trs86
1/4/2010-9:23pm at 9:23 pm (UTC -4)
Think about this. It’s about making what you owe this year less. Would a team bite on Castillo if you ate 8 million (4 a year) That’s 2/4 don’t you think someone would bite? So now the Sox just took 8 million off this year’s salary.
However, who would take Lowell for 1/8 without trading back another salary guy?
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-9:29pm at 9:29 pm (UTC -4)
i got you but my point is they are going to pay castillo 6 million to be a backup 2nd baseman. Pedroia played 154 games at 2nd in 2009 where does castillo plan to play at?
trs86
1/4/2010-9:38pm at 9:38 pm (UTC -4)
He does not have to. He does not have to play at all for them. They can eat cash on Castillo and still stay under the tax or just release him and still stay under the tax.
Hazmet
1/4/2010-9:19pm at 9:19 pm (UTC -4)
I read the thread, I don’t think they could threaten to kill you as your rebuttal was too well thought out. The argument you presented made sense from the perspective of “hey you want AGonz here’s what it will cost”. If you look at it from SDiego’s perspective I could see this as part of a requested package. I’d love to see this happen just to see the reaction over on mlbtr. Don’t think it will though.
trs86
1/4/2010-9:20pm at 9:20 pm (UTC -4)
Problem with that idea is that it actually cost the Padres more money.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-9:31pm at 9:31 pm (UTC -4)
Yes and no. Pedroia’s contract is longer and more expensive than AGonz’ but lasts longer, gives the Padres more cost certainty and is an investment in an “up the middle” player which I imagine Jed Hoyer the former Sox, current Padres GM, knows is a better investment than a corner IF. How better to sell trading your best player to your fanbase than bringing an MVP back?
prismo
1/4/2010-8:43pm at 8:43 pm (UTC -4)
Sorry to be a buzz-kill, but why would the cash-strapped Padres want to take on Castillo’s 2yr/12mil salary? Heck, why would they even want to take on half of it? They already re-signed David Eckstein to play second.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-8:48pm at 8:48 pm (UTC -4)
Not castillo to Padres but Pedroia to Padres bringing back Gonzalez at 1st and having Castillo fill in at 2nd. At least that was the idea.
prismo
1/4/2010-8:55pm at 8:55 pm (UTC -4)
Ah, I guess that’s a possibility.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/4/2010-8:59pm at 8:59 pm (UTC -4)
AGonz is good, but not that good… Pedroia is next Nomah. No way BoSox trade him.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-9:08pm at 9:08 pm (UTC -4)
That’s pretty much what I’m getting over at MLBTR. If I don’t just give up the argument I may point out to them that Pedroia is 5′ 9″, 180 and therefore less likely to withstand the punishment over the long haul – might as well get a perennial All-Star for him before he breaks down.
prismo
1/4/2010-8:36pm at 8:36 pm (UTC -4)
This only makes sense to me if the Sox also give the Mets some cash. I realize that both players are due 12 million total, but Lowell failed his recent physical and then had surgery, while Castillo was healthy all of last season.
CaseStreet
1/4/2010-8:59pm at 8:59 pm (UTC -4)
it makes sense in that it’ll open up 2B for Hudson. If the Mets are dead set on replacing Castillo, they may not be able to get anything better. Plus, you gotta figure Lowell will be healthy some time during the season.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/4/2010-9:02pm at 9:02 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with Prismo. It doesn’t make sense for the Mets to take on the entire 12M. Unless Mets are just looking forward to free up some room for next year’s FA market, which I doubt…
metsfan4decades
1/4/2010-9:04pm at 9:04 pm (UTC -4)
This was my thought as well.
Wonder if Omar will hint at this tomorrow on MF’s show…..
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/4/2010-9:08pm at 9:08 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think Omar will say anything useful. He’ll probably say that they are looking at every trade scenarios for SPs, etc etc…
CaseStreet
1/4/2010-8:52pm at 8:52 pm (UTC -4)
Boston moving MVP Pedroia may be a bit hard to swallow, even if you are bringing back Adrian Gonzalez.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-8:56pm at 8:56 pm (UTC -4)
Is moving Lowell then just a money move then? I can’t see Boston needing to free up cash so badly that they would do this move and get a player that has no place to play.
Unless we are missing something you have to believe there is another piece to this puzzle.
trs86
1/4/2010-9:00pm at 9:00 pm (UTC -4)
See below, there is your missing piece. Castillo and Lowell is an even swap that saves the Sox money. They could even release Castillo and still be under the tax. If they release Lowell they will pay a luxury tax on a guy not on the team.
trs86
1/4/2010-8:58pm at 8:58 pm (UTC -4)
Guys this is all about the Luxury Tax. Lowell will cost them much more than the 12 million he is owed if they go over the luxury tax. Castillo at 6 million a year instead of Lowell for 12 keeps them under.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-9:02pm at 9:02 pm (UTC -4)
Is the difference this year between Lowell and Castillo 6 million?
If that is the case and to get under the luxury tax we are talking 6 million you mean to tell me this is the best Boston could do?
trs86
1/4/2010-9:05pm at 9:05 pm (UTC -4)
Yes. Lowell cost 12 million for 1 year Castillo is 6 million a year for the next two. Thus they have to find a team that would be willing to take Lowell’s 12 million and their net cost can’t be more than that 6 million (that is the theory).
Who else would be willing to take a 12 million dollar Lowell? Even if Boston chipped in 6 million?
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-9:12pm at 9:12 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t see why move Lowell to begin with if it is just about getting 6 million off the payroll.
You mean there are no other combination of millionaires that would get them 6 million off the payroll while giving them a player that they could actually use?
I guess this is just bogus rumors or we are missing the bigger picture cause I just don’t see this as the best move Boston can come up with to get 6 million off the payroll and under the luxury tax.
trs86
1/4/2010-9:18pm at 9:18 pm (UTC -4)
I really can’t think of another one, can you? Castillo at this point has more value than an injured Lowell.
That 6 million they are moving keeps them from paying the luxury tax, it’s not that they could not pay the 6 million it’s that they don’t want to pay the tax for a guy they don’t want to start with. Also, keep in mind that each time you go over the tax the penalty increases. They have already been over it before.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-9:22pm at 9:22 pm (UTC -4)
Castillo has nowhere to play. Are they really that eager to get rid of Lowell to pay Castillo 6 million to be a backup 2nd baseman?
trs86
1/4/2010-9:25pm at 9:25 pm (UTC -4)
I mentioned this a few places. They could then eat 8 million off Castillo’s total (at 4 per year) and still save 8 million off this years luxury tax.
trs86
1/4/2010-9:29pm at 9:29 pm (UTC -4)
Also, again they are so eager to get rid of Lowell because he will end up costing them MUCH more than 12 million if they go over the luxury tax.
wannybackstra
1/5/2010-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
Your logic is flawed.
If Lowell’s 12 million puts them over the luxury tax by $1 million they will only pay the tax on that $1 million. It’s not as if they would have to pay the luxury tax on Lowell’s $12 million.
Since Boston would be a second time luxury tax offender (I think), that $1m excess would only cost them $300k.
So if they are only over the threshold by a million, Lowell doesn’t cost them MUCH more than his $12m and they could just easily dump another $1m salary rather than pay Castillo to sulk on the bench.
trs86
1/5/2010-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
They paid every year from like 2003-2007 I think. Anyway, they have broken it a few times. But in theory the rumor is they would be about 6 million over. So they would be paying Lowell about 15 million to sit on the bench.
wannybackstra
1/5/2010-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
If they have been over that many times, the max luxury tax would be 40% of the overage.
What is the basis for assuming that the entire difference between Castillo and Lowell would be the overage?
And wouldn’t they pay even more money to eat Castillo’s contract that the $2-3m the luxury tax would cost them?
It makes no sense to eat his contract and pay more money just to avoid the tax for less money.
trs86
1/5/2010-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
But in the long run they save money. Say they are going to pay the full amount of 15 million for Lowell counting the luxury tax. If they trade Lowell for Castillo and then eat 8 million to dump Castillo then they still save 7 million total?
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/4/2010-9:05pm at 9:05 pm (UTC -4)
But if that’s the case, I’d try to get prospects instead. Pay $6M of Lowell’s salary in return get some prospects back.
trs86
1/4/2010-9:08pm at 9:08 pm (UTC -4)
See above, who would even pay 6 million for Lowell? Only a team trying to get rid of another undesirable. Think about this, for not much more you could get Dye. I think the move makes perfect sense for the Sox.
Trade Lowell for Castillo, luxury tax down 6 million this year. Now eat 8 million on Castillo (4 a year) and trade for scrub. Thus you have now saved 8 million total on this year’s luxury tax.
metsfan4decades
1/4/2010-9:06pm at 9:06 pm (UTC -4)
O.K. – so makes sense for Boston but what about the Mets?
Is this extra 6 Mil or so for this year what we maybe would have spent to cover a back up at third and/or platoon at first?
And how much is Hudson going to cost?
trs86
1/4/2010-9:10pm at 9:10 pm (UTC -4)
Depends on the Mets front. Perhaps Hudson, who really wants to be a Met, gets the 3 year contract but it looks like this 3, 5, 7. (3/15). Then the hit for this year for Lowell and Hudson is only 15 million (only 9 million more than we are paying now)
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/4/2010-9:12pm at 9:12 pm (UTC -4)
Only thing that I can come up with is the fact that Mets will have freed up extra $12M for next year’s FA class. Most likely along with Hudson’s money and hopefully Molina’s and Garland/Arroyo money as well.
If the Mets are willing to commit to $12M for a platoon guy, I’m sure Garko is a much much cheaper option.
trs86
1/4/2010-9:15pm at 9:15 pm (UTC -4)
It’s not about how much they are paying Lowell. It’s about clearing the position while getting a guy that could help the team. You have to look at Castillo as a sunk cost.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/4/2010-9:21pm at 9:21 pm (UTC -4)
I think there were some discussion around Lowell couple weeks back and my take is that I would not do the trade unless BoSox eats some of Lowell’s money.
Sure, Luis maybe liability defensively and don’t hit for power. But is he so bad that the Mets are willing to take on significant $6-9MM to bring on Hudson? I don’t see it…
trs86
1/4/2010-9:27pm at 9:27 pm (UTC -4)
Perhaps they would still work something out with cash. Really depends on how much they have to cut to get under the tax.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-9:12pm at 9:12 pm (UTC -4)
Well there’s nothing sexy about a Lowell/Castillo swap based exclusively on luxury tax concerns. Now if it turns into Pedroia for AGonz, that’s sexy baby yeah!
trs86
1/4/2010-9:14pm at 9:14 pm (UTC -4)
I wonder if this deal could be expanded to include the Reds? Lowell could be useful to them.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-9:20pm at 9:20 pm (UTC -4)
There’s actually one guy at MLBTR who doesn’t think I’m completely insane and is debating me on this, he thinks the part of the deal that makes it a non-starter is the Sox using Castillo as their starting 2B, so I just stole your idea about the Sox flipping Castillo for prospects, paying much of his salary, because it keeps them under the tax, and added my own bit about them then just playing Lowrie at 2B.
trs86
1/4/2010-9:26pm at 9:26 pm (UTC -4)
I just don’t see the 11:$5.5M, 12:$8M, 13:$10M, 14:$10M contract of Pedroia being something the Pads would go for.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-9:31pm at 9:31 pm (UTC -4)
That is one reason why i think this is a bogus rumor or there is much more to this than anyone of us can see at the moment.
trs86
1/4/2010-9:34pm at 9:34 pm (UTC -4)
So because this does not involve the Pads the rumor is bogus? It makes perfect since for the Sox. I don’t get how you don’t see it. They need to dump Lowell’s cash to stay under the tax. Castillo allows them to do that. No they don’t need Castillo but they could even release Castillo and still save 6 million on this year’s luxury tax count.
trs86
1/4/2010-9:36pm at 9:36 pm (UTC -4)
It’s almost like an NBA trade. They have to balance salaries so they throw in someone to balance it out and then cut them as soon as they get there. Keeps them under the luxury tax but cost them the same.
Sox can’t just release Lowell because he counts towards this years tax. They can’t find anyone to trade for Lowell at even 6 million without giving salary back….
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-9:38pm at 9:38 pm (UTC -4)
Bogus in that I don’t see Boston Paying Castillo 6 million to ride the bench or worse so they could just cut him I don’t see it.
I guess I just don’t see it.I will wait and see if the rumors turn out to be true then.
trs86
1/4/2010-9:40pm at 9:40 pm (UTC -4)
Do you not see how that saves them in the long run? I am sure they would at this point, finding Lowell untradeable, rather just release him. However, they can’t because it would still put them over the luxury tax. Releasing Castillo would NOT put them over the tax.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-9:45pm at 9:45 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t want to go around in circles. I see your point I just don’t share your opinion that Boston would do such a thing. I am of the opinion that it is either bogus or if true there is more than what we have discussed that’s all.
trs86
1/4/2010-9:52pm at 9:52 pm (UTC -4)
It could end up not happening but still be a valid rumor. Maybe the Mets would not want to pay Lowell 12 million?
trs86
1/4/2010-9:42pm at 9:42 pm (UTC -4)
They are going to pay Lowell 12 million to ride the bench AND pay a luxury tax.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-9:44pm at 9:44 pm (UTC -4)
I can see it. They really don’t want to pay the luxury tax, and are able to part with Lowell because they have Beltre now for 3B, Youkilis for 1B and if Beltre inevitably gets hurt they have Kotchman for 1B and Youk moves to 3B.
Then they either keep him on the roster as a backup 2B comfortably under the tax, or they simply cut him, or they trade him for something (anything!) while paying part of his salary to make him go away.
It makes a lot of sense to me. I just was hoping it would be more exciting.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-9:33pm at 9:33 pm (UTC -4)
Here’s my thought on that from above:
Pedroia’s contract is longer and more expensive than AGonz’ but lasts longer, gives the Padres more cost certainty and is an investment in an “up the middle†player which I imagine Jed Hoyer the former Sox, current Padres GM, knows is a better investment than a corner IF. How better to sell trading your best player to your fanbase than bringing an MVP back?
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-9:39pm at 9:39 pm (UTC -4)
I gave up at MLBTR. The person debating me was just too reasonable, rational, and had too strong a case for me to continue, so I surrendered peacefully. If only we could have such debates here
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-9:41pm at 9:41 pm (UTC -4)
LoL
tkfj
1/4/2010-9:53pm at 9:53 pm (UTC -4)
What use do the Mets have for Lowell?
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-9:58pm at 9:58 pm (UTC -4)
Pinch-hitter, back up 3B if God forbid one becomes necessary, and potential platoon partner for Murphy at 1B who if Murphy falls flat could play 1B somewhat regularly, although I question his ability to play 1B since he’s got more experience at 2B (9 games) than he does at 1B (0 games).
And he gets the $12 million total owed to Castillo off the books after 2010 instead of after 2011 due to his 1 year, $12 mil contract.
For me the big negative is that Lowell has never played 1B, just assuming he can play there could be a tragic mistake.
trs86
1/4/2010-10:02pm at 10:02 pm (UTC -4)
I guess it’s possible we could then trade Lowell by eating cash or waiting until the deadline when hitters are needed. Either way I guess they see Lowell and Castillo as an even swap total and want to clear 2B for Hudson?
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-10:07pm at 10:07 pm (UTC -4)
From the Mets perspective you probably hit on it with your second sentence. I say that because of how widely it was reported around the winter meetings that Omar was trying so actively to move Castillo. That was reported so much I can’t believe it was false.
trs86
1/4/2010-10:11pm at 10:11 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed. If they even entertained the idea of Pat the Bat then I guess they would Lowell. I like the move myself. I would rather have Hudson and Lowell than Castillo and Garko for sure. Although next year’s cost would be much more, I am not sure it would cost them anymore over 2 years. Say Hudson takes a back loaded deal like 3/15 at 3/5/7 then that’s 15 for this year or they sign Garko for 3 and over 2 years it’s still 15?
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-10:19pm at 10:19 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t see Lowell being a good fit on the field, he has to prove to me (and the world, and possibly himself) that he can play 1B. But losing Castillo’s $12 million a year sooner, his total lack of power, defensive range, and indifferent clubhouse presence, while adding Hudson’s slightly better range and bit of pop, widely reported excellent clubhouse presence and perhaps most importantly his widely reported actual desire to play for this team, plus Lowell’s veteran savvy and character and both players’ ability to deflect some press from Wright’s locker, I can see benefits.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-10:26pm at 10:26 pm (UTC -4)
I should add though that with the difference in Lowell’s and Castillo’s salaries, plus the additional money to whoever is going to take over 2B, I really don’t see an addition to the starting pitching staff on the horizon.
Looks like we go to war with Johan, Pelf, Maine, Ollie and Niese.
trs86
1/4/2010-10:28pm at 10:28 pm (UTC -4)
Well it depends on how the Mets management looks at it. They are going to pay 12 million for Castillo either way. So assuming we still have a lot of room under the luxury tax I don’t see that it would matter that much.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-9:59pm at 9:59 pm (UTC -4)
Oh and if he proves he has recovered from his surgery, the Mets can theoretically turn around and trade him and $9 million to Texas for C Max Ramirez since that deal already “happened” until the thumb surgery came up.
trs86
1/4/2010-10:03pm at 10:03 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, that’s interesting. Not sure I would be that desperate to trade him though. Nor do I see the Mets waiting that long to solve catcher.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-10:06pm at 10:06 pm (UTC -4)
Theoretically all this was just to generate traffic on websites. Knowing all too well that nothing was ever going to come of this.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-10:08pm at 10:08 pm (UTC -4)
You should know about that since your Minaya/Francesa post generated by far the most traffic here today
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-10:11pm at 10:11 pm (UTC -4)
amazin right put exclusive in front of something and people can’t resist lol.
trs86
1/4/2010-10:12pm at 10:12 pm (UTC -4)
LOL.
I think there is a clear reason for this rumor to be suggested. Just because the Mets and Cubs deal for Castillo never happen does not mean that the rumor was bogus though.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-10:20pm at 10:20 pm (UTC -4)
True, it just doesn’t seem logical taken as is for me at least, hence why I keep suggesting the bogus aspect of it.
trs86
1/4/2010-10:22pm at 10:22 pm (UTC -4)
I think it all depends on how badly the Sox want to avoid paying the luxury tax. As for unloading Lowell, before Beltre they were going to pay 9 million just to dump him.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-10:29pm at 10:29 pm (UTC -4)
How badly indeed is the question.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-9:57pm at 9:57 pm (UTC -4)
Can’t wait to see what comes of all this.
trs86
1/4/2010-10:00pm at 10:00 pm (UTC -4)
Most likely nothing. Just a rumor. Mets want to move Castillo, Redsox desperately want to dump Lowell. Teams prob. talked but nothing came will come of it.
trs86
1/4/2010-10:17pm at 10:17 pm (UTC -4)
Who cares about Lowell and Castillo. TNA got Hogan and Flair…. Whoooooooooooo.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-10:21pm at 10:21 pm (UTC -4)
TNA means something totally different to me.
Plus I got the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. Mmm, Tostitos…
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-10:32pm at 10:32 pm (UTC -4)
TRS
I don’t know how often you read comments at Mets Merized Online, but I’ve noticed a familiar name and tone recently. Here’s an example:
ALEX24 says:
January 4, 2010 at 9:53 pm
I hope is molina to no more than a 2 year deal.. If is piñero who was seeking 3 year deal kinda like perez 36 then omar minaya should be fired. Piñero is a healthy maine wit perez like stats less the k’s. Having perez n piñero is having two #5’s worth 12 million each.. Yuck..
trs86
1/4/2010-10:34pm at 10:34 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, bring him over. Should give me something to do for a while.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-10:40pm at 10:40 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t think it would be right for me to just recruit him, but we have commented in the same threads and my screen name there is the same as it is here, and it functions as a hotlink to this site so if he ever runs his mouse over my name and clicks it will bring him here.
stickguy
1/4/2010-10:52pm at 10:52 pm (UTC -4)
lots of posts for later in the evening.
get rid of castillo? Dang, why didn’t I tink of it?
I tink, if tis is true, TRS is probably on the right track. Always follow the money.
the real trick is figuring out what comes next. maybe the Mets are willing to take a shot on using lowell (where the Sox really aren’t likely to now), and it does move castillo.
But, lots of opportunities to add some cash and make future moves. If you are willing to cut the guy anyway, why not?
I could see the sox flipping castillo for something. but, what’s the math?
If the sox trade 4 mill to move castillo, and get a prospect back say.
they save 8 million (less the minimal cost of the prospect) in 2010, and get a prospect, vs. if they just release Lowell.
The mets, being the mets, add 6 mill + the cost of a replacement 2B.
Hmmm,this is starting to look like the Wagner deal again, except the Mets dont save money this time.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-11:00pm at 11:00 pm (UTC -4)
You think Francesa can talk to Minaya and get him to announce that the Mets have traded for a solid pitcher that raises the quality of our rotation to a much higher level that in a 3 game series matches up with any team in baseball?
What was I thinking we are covered we have the best 1, 2, 3 punch wait… I mean the best 1, 2 punch oops did I say 1, 2 I meant the best 1 punch in baseball.
GravediggerHebner
1/4/2010-11:20pm at 11:20 pm (UTC -4)
I feel your pain Mr. NJ. I wanted Lackey sooooo baaaaad but I didn’t get my wish.
It has been made pretty clear to me both through articles by beat writers and by the actions of the team that once they decided not to pursue John Lackey in the strongest possible way, they then decided to go with an offense that they think will keep them in games and allow them to win high scoring games.
I don’t think that’s wise, especially once (if) a team makes it to the post season, but at least they seem to be actually doing that. If they inevitably sign Molina, and are able to pull off this alleged Castillo/Lowell trade then sign Hudson, that is one hell of an offense. Add an incentive laden Delgado and pray for his hip and it’s a fairly devastating lineup with the greatest concern becoming how to separate the horrible OBP of Molina and Francouer.
About all that keeps me going in that scenario though is the knowledge that the Twins won 87 games and a division title with Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker as their top 2 starters, and they used 8 other guys (including R. A. Dickey) to start the rest of their games. Although if the Mets win 87 games, they probably don’t make the playoffs so then you don’t have to worry about the rotation in the post season.
I know that’s not much but it’s all I’ve got. That and the cold medicine.
Mr North Jersey
1/4/2010-11:43pm at 11:43 pm (UTC -4)
Oh well we can always cross our fingers that Pelfrey finally puts it all together and Ollie has a career year and Santana wins a Cy Young and Wright battles all year for the triple crown and Reyes steals 100 bases while setting the all time single season record for doubles and triples and Beltran has a career year in rbi’s and Bay is voted the starting Left fielder at the All Star game and Frenchy sets the tone all year long with his football mentality and KROD Mania invades Citi Fields with him him setting the Mets all time single season saves record and oh wait I was day dreaming again. Sorry about that but what a great dream
wannybackstra
1/5/2010-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
The whole theory that Lowell will cost the Sox too much money in the luxury tax is a bit overstated. It matters how far the Sox are over the threshold.
If Lowell only brings the Sox over the threshold by $1m then the luxury tax only costs the Sox $300k. Under that circumstance it makes no sense to acquire Castillo to be a miserable bastard on their bench for $6m a year.
Even if the difference is that the Sox go over by the full contract difference of $6m, the Sox would pay just under $2m in luxury tax. I’m not sure it makes more sense to acquire Castillo to save $2m or to then trade him and eat his salary.
The luxury tax is only applied to the money over the tax threshold.
trs86
1/5/2010-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
I think it also has to do with ability to move him too. Again lets say the swap is even. They are under the luxury tax then. However they could then eat say 8 million of Castillo’s contract making him a 2/4 guy and be able to dump him. Thus they would in the long run save something like 7 million. However, they can’t just do that with Lowell because they would have to eat too much cash and it would still count on the luxury tax. Castillo’s cash when they eat it can be spread over 2 years.
wannybackstra
1/5/2010-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
The Sox current obligations according to Cots is $144m. The threshold for 2010 is $170m.
trs86
1/5/2010-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
Again, Wanny I am not going to debate this one or even look at their contracts. I don’t think either one of us can actually accurately count luxury tax for even the Mets much less the Sox. I am just going based on the theory that the reason the Sox approached the Mets about the swap was for luxury tax purposes. My thought was if 12 million does indeed put them over but they are willing to take on Castillo then the amount over would have to be in-between 1-6 million.
If they are indeed not close to the luxury tax then there would be no reason for the trade anyway.
wannybackstra
1/5/2010-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
Sorry, TRS. I was just trying to save you the trouble of speculating by injecting some facts.
By the way, remember when you determined that the Mets had $28m-$32m to spend this offseason by reviewing their contract obligations as reported on Cots? You seemed pretty sure of yourself then and continue to insist the Mets’ budget is what you had previously determined based on this review.
But now we can’t rely on Cot’s spreadhseets as accurate? I don’t get it.
Anyway, it is very possible that the Sox did not approach the Mets about such a trade or that they have no intentions of consummating a deal under the terms proposed by Jerry Crasnick, whom as far as I know is employed by ESPN.com as a one of its rumor mongers, not by one of the teams in question.
trs86
1/5/2010-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
Not saying we can’t rely on it at all Wanny.
I am saying that we all studied that spreadsheet in depth for a long time and found a few things it did not include and found all kinds of discrepancies with what our luxury tax total was from multiple sites because it includes benefits. Cots does a great job with contracts and even opening day but that total does not always equal the amount used for luxury tax. I just don’t have the desire to do that for the Sox on a deal that most likely will never happen…
As for the rumor, the rumor is that the Sox approached the Mets on it and that’s all I have to go by. I am not reporting it as a fact that they talking or are close to being over. Just that it is the basis of the rumor.