flame thrower
Omar and the Mets should now be set to turn their attention to the mound immediately after Bay’s press conference today. The pool of free agent pitchers that remain is not impressive in the least headlined by Ben Sheets, Jon Garland, and Joel Pineiro. However, Sheets really intrigues me and here’s why:
Big Ben is looking for at least a 1 year deal worth about $12 mill, just about what he made in 2008 while pitching for the Brewers. At one point this year both the Yanks and Red Sox have been rumored to be interested, but after the Lackey and Vazquez signings neither will likely take the risk. Knowing the big dogs are probably out of the running and considering the initial $12 mill ask from Sheets will only come down, I cannot see how this is not a favorable option for the Mets considering the weak alternatives.Â
Obviously the major concern with Sheets is health as he is coming off elbow surgery and never even took the mound in 2009. Actually, the 31 year old has not pitched more than 200 innings since ’04. As a Met fan these numbers jump out much more to us than any other casual fan. This is simply because we are traumatized from last year. Never have I ever heard so much hype around “playing it safe” when it comes to the off-season from the media and our fanbase. Never have I seen the focus completely switch from talent and effectiveness to innings pitched/played when approaching the free market. What we need to understand is that last year was a freak season; one that we could neither prepare for or repair. Injuries decimated the Mets so badly last year that it has changed the way we are weighing talent this year.Â
Jon Garland is the model of consistency from an innings pitched perspective pitching at least 191 innings every year since ’02. Is he the answer? Nevermind his career 4.42 ERA or the fact that he couldn’t strike out Adam Dunn to save his life. Will consistency and durability bring us to the top of the NL? Maybe, for our core players at least. But not if its out of a guy like Garland when we would still be missing a #2 starter among many other things.Â
If guys start dropping like flies again this year Jon Garland and his 6 innings and 4 ER/game is not going to make a difference.  We already have a Mike Pelfrey. I can only hope the Mets front office does not feel this same conservativeness because of last year. Sheets has ace-like stuff and has the biggest upside out of the remaining pitchers. We have to be aggressive and take risks in the off-season, and at 1 year $8 mill lets say, the risk is manageable. If he doesnt work out then we can pursue Beckett or another free agent next year in that stellar free agent class. The punishment: Johan gets a year older…although signing Garland or Pineiro wouldn’t make the difference this year anyway.Â
Sheets is a 4 time All-Star and has an impressive 3.73 career ERA. The last we saw him in 2008 he was 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA with Milwaukee.  If all the Mets would have to do is outbid possible teams like the Rangers (rumor has it GM Nolan Ryan favors Garland),the Cubs, or the Angels then we dig deep for the extra cash and get the most talented out of the bunch. If our scouts say he still has it, he’s worth the risk.
42 comments
trs86
1/5/2010-9:22am at 9:22 am (UTC -4)
I like Sheets, but in my opinion we would STILL need a guy like Garland. We are missing innings and Sheets only gives us that IF he is healthy. You can’t win with a rotation of guys that go less than 6 innings and less than 200 innings. So IF we did get Sheets lets say for 9 million with incentives up to say 14, in my opinion we would need to trade Maine and sign a durable sure 200 innings guy.
Also, Garland is not going to be a 6 innings 4 runs guy. That would be a guy with an ERA of 6.00 Far removed from his 4.01 ERA last season or even his career 4.42 ERA. Comparing him to Pelfrey does not work either. Pelfrey at his best is better than Garland, but at his worst (last year) was much worse. Garland has averaged more than 6 innings per start ever year since 2003 and even then was at 5.97. Besides Johan there is NO one on the Mets roster that could come close to that. He is not a #2 or maybe even #3 but what he does give us is consistency. Imagine your scenario where we sign only Sheets and he goes down. You have Johan followed by Pelfrey and 2 5 inning pitchers and a rookie. To me signing a guy like Garland allows you to take a gamble on Sheets or Bedard.
trs86
1/5/2010-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
To further that, 190+ innings the last 8 years row, at least 32 games started 8 years in a row, 12, 12, 12, 18, 18, 10, 14, 11 wins the last 8 years averaging over 13 wins a year, ERA never over 4.90. Find me other pitchers who have done that who you could get for what he is asking.
njstuckintx
1/5/2010-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
I understand the innings pitched and being consistent and all that. Having someone that is consistently “meh” is not really something that is needed.
The arguement for Sheets + Garland is a decent one, but I’m not sure it’s all that desireable. Pineiro would be a more expensive Garland with a greater capacity for fluctuation. 1.21 gigawatts, anyone? Prefer to have a trade guy + Sheets.
I wish they would AT THE LEAST push to sign Sheets, regardless if they don’t make another signing. I know the desire of Armchair GMs all around are to sign/trade for Multiple SPs to be signed. Signing Sheets is a bonus, even if he lasts half a year. Even if you just have Sheets until he breaks and then get a trade deadline-type in the middle of the year, the rotation would look better. Johan, Sheets/mid-year pickup, Pelf, Ollie, Maine/Neive/Neise. Having Garland is nice, but I can’t see him slotting in the rotation anything higher than a poor 3, most likely 4.
trs86
1/5/2010-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
He doesn’t slide up you are right. But who are you confident in giving you 200 innings, double digit wins and an ERA under 5.00 in our current rotation besides Johan? Again, my fear with Sheets, he gets injured we are in trouble. We need one innings guy and then we can look around for the bonus guy.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/5/2010-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
I would disagree. I think the Mets need #2 guy (risky like Sheets/Bedard/Wang) and then look around for one innings guy.
trs86
1/5/2010-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
Again if that guy was not a risk guy I would agree. What happens if that risk guy ends up injured as all 3 of those have a great chance of that happening? Then what? Who picks up those innings? You are not going to get it from Pelfrey/Ollie/Maine/Niese.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/5/2010-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
I understand your point. But how much of a difference does Garland make over Figgy? I know Garland is a far better pitcher than Figgy, but without a strong #2 SP, I don’t know if the Mets can compete with the Phillies.
njstuckintx
1/5/2010-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
I hear what you are saying. Having both would be good.
I guess what I am saying is that the risk guy is more important than the innings guy. If the Mets are to make a run, they need the Rotation of a 1, 1A, 3, 4, 5 than a 1, 3, 4, 4, 5 type. I think it’s worth the risk to take Sheets alone. An extra bonus if they add Garland on top.
Going out to snag Garland right away with the intention of adding a Sheets or trade type to slot in the number 2 spot is ideal. Adding Garland only, uff da. That is basically saying we aren’t going to risk the season on an injury prone pitcher, but we’ll risk the season on our offense, which has been banged up a whole lot the past few years, in a division that has some very good pitching. Good Pitching usually beats good offense.
trs86
1/5/2010-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
In my opinion going out and getting Garland allows you to be in a better position come July if you need a #2. Getting a #2 now that gets injured it’s hard to make up for innings lost and stress on the pen.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/5/2010-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
I agree. Sheets should be complemented with an innings eater/consistent pitcher like Garland. And it seems that Omar would only sign one FA pitcher.
halfmanhalfamazin
1/5/2010-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
I was more making the comparison of signing Garland vs. Sheets, without thinking Omar would sign both. I think we are all fine with both of them, but passing on a 1 year deal with sheets for a multi year deal for garland would make no sense to me. Consistency is great, when you are consistently good..not mediocre. But if we sign him AND take our shot at bedard or sheets for the #2 spot than I understand.
trs86
1/5/2010-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
I guess what we differ on is what is mediocre. I think Garland is a step above that but a step below good as well. I would rate him a B- while when healthy Sheets is a A. I too would not offer Garland anything more than 1+1.
dirtysanchez
1/5/2010-9:36am at 9:36 am (UTC -4)
I agree with ya that sheets is the ultimate gamble here but what happened last year is what jaws did for the beach. We need health and your right, it was a freak year but innings have been a problem for much longer than last year imo. Like real said, Garland is not great but he does give you innings. He can be our Livan Hernandez for this year with hopefully less of a dramatic fall off in the second half. Problem is Omars love affair with Niese. I think he is determined for him to be in the starting rotation next year and that would be a big problem. We need a #2 guy in the rotation, sheets is the only guy out there that comes close to that. We have viable options in the event of an injury with nieve, niese and escobar(if he comes back ok). I say they should take a chance but again, I hold my position at NOT starting with 10 mill guarenteed.
Kingman 26
1/5/2010-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
Well, this is a riddle wrapped in an enigma.
We need a number 2. Sheets is clearly a number 2, but is never healthy. Garland is healthy, but is not a number 2. Pineiro is nothing at all but a guy coming off one good year which followed FIVE straight bad ones.
I think that at this point it is clear that Omar is giving the Pelf/Ollie/Maine Axis of Inconsistency another go-round.
I was all for Halladay, etc, but at this point, I think we are going to see one of the above three guys, and that is it.
I guess, as I still have hopes for Pelf and Maine and even Ollie, I would go for Sheets. The upside is just too high to ignore him if we are not in a bidding war. If he is healthy, and Pelf and one more of our young starters does well, we will be looking good.
Garland is OK, and I would be glad to have him, but he is not too special. I personally think that anything other than 1-2 relatively inexpensive years for Pineiro is a disaster the minute it happens.
So, we have to roll the dice with Sheets. If not him, then Garland. If neither of them, wait till Ollie Pineiro comes hat in hand for a 2009 Hudson/Abreu deal.
njstuckintx
1/5/2010-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
Kingman, I think you stated here what I was trying to write above. Just with more eloquence.
Kingman 26
1/5/2010-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
Thank you sir!
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/5/2010-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
LOL Ollie Pineiro???
Kingman 26
1/5/2010-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
Yes!!
Look at his career–Pineiro has a couple of good years thrown in amidst a bunch of really terrible ones.
Like Ollie, when very young he threw some good numbers, and then went into a career tailspin which seemed to change last year…but he is SOOOOO ripe for getting a 3/35+ deal and stinking up the place somewhere.
But then again, maybe baseball people really are wising up and he will just get 1–2 years.
trs86
1/5/2010-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
I think because of Ollie, Pineiro may only get 2 years or 3/24.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/5/2010-9:56am at 9:56 am (UTC -4)
Question. How does the incentive laden contract count towards your payroll (for luxury tax)? Say Sheets gets $5M guaranteed + $10M incentive, how much of the incentive portion count towards your payroll? All or half?
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/5/2010-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
Off Topic, Bay got 8.5M signing bonus?? wow… does that count towards your payroll?
trs86
1/5/2010-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
Where did you see that?
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/5/2010-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
It’s up on Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
# 4 years/$66M (2010-13), plus 2014 option
* signed by NY Mets as a free agent 1/5/10
* $8.5M signing bonus
* 10:$6.5M, 11:$16M, 12:$16M, 13:$16M, 14:$17M club option ($3M buyout)
* 2014 option guaranteed with 600 PAs in 2013 or 500 PAs in both 2012, 2013
* full no-trade clause
trs86
1/5/2010-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
Ah, this makes sense. Look at the 2010 #. So overall the contract is only 4/66 including the 3 million buyout. This looks like a good deal for the Mets. As for counting towards the cap yes I would think it would but it does not say that the signing bonus would be paid all in one year either. Most likely as far as the hit on luxury tax it would be 15.75 as it takes the yearly average including benefits.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/5/2010-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
Yes and it gives the Mets some wiggle room for the SP to meet their budget.
trs86
1/5/2010-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
I think it is determined at the end of the season anyway. It’s not based on opening day payroll.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/5/2010-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
I see… so say if the Yankees moved ARod,Jeter,CC,and Tex during the season, they don’t pay any luxury tax?
trs86
1/5/2010-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
Well depends on if half of their salaries still puts them over.
Kingman 26
1/5/2010-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
HAHA! If they did, they would finish 3rd in their division. And still have one of the game’s highest payrolls….
trs86
1/5/2010-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
True but it at least looks like the Redsox will also come much closer to the Yankee’s payroll this year.
Kingman 26
1/5/2010-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
Absolutely—it is one thing to compete with a handful of others who spend more than most, but as the 2009 Yanks showed, clearly outspend everyone else, and you have a far better chance.
At least the nation can again be enthralled with another Red Sox-Yankees ALCS, with Chase Manhattan facing Bank of America.
trs86
1/5/2010-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
True but the Redsox should have been able to compete last year but some would say they did not spend their money wisely/ lots of down years and injuries. They had to dump Lugo, pay Ortiz, Lowell and Drew 40 million.
trs86
1/5/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Ortiz’s .238 BA and .797 OPS
They also are the poster child of the fact that 2 good SP and a bunch of junk will get you in trouble. After Beckett and Lester they stunk.
CaseStreet
1/5/2010-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
With Santana, Ollie and Maine all coming back from injuries, it’s a BIG risk to go with a guy like Sheets who may not pitch more innings or games than Pedro.
To GET TO the playoffs, we need an innings eater like Garland that will save the bullpen.
TO WIN IN the playoffs, we need someone better than Garland.
So, IMO, the best move is to sign Garland and then make a mid-season trade for one of the top tier pitchers that will be free agents in 2011 (e.g., Arroyo, Beckett, Harden, Harang, Lee, Webb).
Otherwise, you risk Sheets getting injured and you’re stuck with 30 starts from Figgy.
CaseStreet
1/5/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
BTW, how sweet would a Santana-Lee top of the rotation look?
That’s comparable if not better than Doc-Hamels, C.C.-A.J., or Carpenter-Wainwright.
trs86
1/5/2010-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
I would say it’s better than any of them but not likely to happen…
However, I could see a Santana, Webb/Zambrano
CaseStreet
1/5/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
Why? I doubt the Mariners would lock up Lee long term, w/ King Felix coming up for FA soon. Maybe they can.
I guess if they’re still contending, they won’t trade him. Certainly seems like they will.
CaseStreet
1/5/2010-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
Meant to say, “Certainly seems like they will be contending.”
trs86
1/5/2010-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. By July you have a better handle on what you do need. What I know we do need to start the year is innings. What we need in July? Who knows?
Kingman 26
1/5/2010-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
Well, I do have to inform you that we will not be seeing 30 starts at the MLB level from the extraordinarily esteemed Mr. Figueroa. Ed maybe, but not Nelson.
30 starts? Yikes!
Here’s how delusional I am–I say fine, give the Pelf/Ollie/Maine Axis one more shot in the first half, and any of them who fail to get it done get sent down or to the pen or traded if possible, and we offer the kitchen sink for Beckett or Lee or a healthy Webb. (Harang and Arroyo and Harden cannot be even close to Beckett and Lee I would think.)
We are going to score a lot more runs in 2010 than we did in 2009, and we are going to win more games when we give up 4 or 5. So, to me, Garland becomes less key than had we not signed Bay. If we sign Molina, and he bats 7th or 8th down there with Murph, we have a potentially VERY good offense, which can win games with Pelf giving up 5 runs.
The playoffs and the saving the pen issues are the biggest ones left here I think…maybe that is why Omar got some pen depth right off the bat.
Don’t take the risk with Sheets, don’t overspend on Pineiro, fortify the pen even more, see how the rotation shakes out in April and May, and have money and prospects right there to make a deal for a serious pitcher by June.
wannybackstra
1/5/2010-6:34pm at 6:34 pm (UTC -4)
Plenty of good relievers still avaialble too: Valverde, Gregg, Calero, Bradford, Dotel, Park, Weathers and Brian Shouse (still a very effective LOOGY but solely a LOOGY).
Seems like we’ve had most of these guys already.
At least I think these guys are still available.
saltygary
1/5/2010-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
As stated by others above, the Mets do need a #2 stater but there is nothing remotely close to that in the free agent pool. Guys like Garland and Piniero do nothing to improve what we already have in Pelf, Main or Ollie, so why spend money on these guys?
As for Sheets I would have no problem going to get this guy as long as the front office sets expectations to the fan base that this guy has been injured for some time, is going to be eased into the rotation and it will take time before he can show that he can be a powerhouse. The folks on this site may understand that but the yahoo’s that post on other sites wouldn’t and frankly I would be surprised if they even know what their own name is.