I have no new news to report on the market for Adam LaRoche because I am trying to find one.
These are the only teams I can even find mentioned in connection with the LH 1B. The O’s, Giants, M’s, Braves and Mets. Lets take a deeper look at these 5 teams needs and the likelihood of a match.
Orioles: The O’s are looking for a 1B to replace Huff and committee. However, according to MLBTR they are more interested in Delgado or other 1 year guys. “They also have interest in first basemen Hank Blalock, Adam LaRoche, Russell Branyan and Chad Tracy, but don’t want to offer multi-year deals to any of them. LaRoche is probably the only one of those players with much of a chance at a multi-year contract.” The have Brandon Snyder a 22 year old 1B/3B hom they are still high on in the minors as well as Garrett Adkins who is in my opinion more suited for 1B . I could see Delgado or Blalock as more of a fit than LaRoche. At this point I would still rank them #1 in the LaRoche market.
Giants: The Giants seemed like a logical destination for LaRoche as they were seeking a LH 1B to provide pop to a bad offensive team. However, with the acquisition of Aubrey Huff they are now in my opinion out of the LaRoche market.
Mariners: The M’s were looking for a 1B to replace Branyan. They were able to dump Bill Hall and bring in Casey Kotchman. With their increased emphasis on defense over hitting and the use of UZR it looks as though Kotchman will be their starter. According to UZR he was the 2nd best 1B in the majors last season. Kotchman will make around 3 million next season and still be arbitration eligible. In my opinion they are now out of the LaRoche market.
Braves: Hard to be a sleeper team when the player was last seen wearing your uniform. However, there has been little to no talk about a LaRoche reunion in Atlanta. The Braves still need offense and have a hole at 1B. However, they also brought in Troy Glaus who when healthy is a very good offensive player. I think however, the Braves could stand to have LaRoche at 1B with Glaus taking time at 1B and 3B. I would put the Braves as #2 in the LaRoche market.
Mets: Omar may be playing this move exactly right, again. There has been few rumors coming out of the Mets being interested in LaRoche. However, many higher ups assume that Daniel Murphy will not be the 1B next season. It appears the Mets camp may indeed be split. There is the idea of getting a RH to platoon with Murphy, or “upgrading” the position with Delgado (a 1 year guy) or perhaps filling the spot with LaRoche. I would put the Mets as the #3 with a watchful eye.
With the disappearing market for LaRoche I think the Mets should indeed get involved. I don’t want to start the debate here because it is based on personal opinion (I am sure I will in the comment section) I believe LaRoche on a 2 year deal would be a good move for the Mets. LaRoche turned down a rumored 2/17 deal. However, now LaRoche I am sure wishes that he had taken that deal. Perhaps at this point he would be willing to take a 1+1 deal for maybe 6 million the first year and 9 the second with a 2 million buy out? The difference offensively between a healthy Delgado, LaRoche or Murphy swings Delgado’s way. However, we know the healthy part is a gamble at best. Looking at LaRoche and Murphy…
60 comments
trs86
1/11/2010-8:52am at 8:52 am (UTC -4)
.278 .357 .487 .844
Can we really hope for that from Murphy? We know that the Mets have intentions of Davis taking the spot. LaRoche on a 1+1 protects just that. Again, it’s not the disdain for Murphy as much as it is the fact that there is not a good pitcher on the market. I don’t think the 8 million at most I would spend on Pineiro would interfere with the signing of LaRoche. I can’t see the Mets not taking a chance to improve their offense while still being able to bring in a pitcher.
Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Beltran, Bay, LaRoche, Frenchy, Molina would certainly be a hitter’s lineup.
dirtysanchez
1/11/2010-9:32am at 9:32 am (UTC -4)
im betting the mets think murph can put up close to those numbers. Bottom line, the Mets are really high on Davis and do not have any intentions of locking up 1b. I really believe we are going to see davis this year for september callups and davis full time next year. I prefer them taking their time for prospects but this has Mets rush job written all over it. I dont think they see the need on spending money on laroche if they can get similar production from murphy and a healthy lineup
trs86
1/11/2010-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
At this point I don’t think LaRoche locks up 1B any more than Delgado and we can’t deny the interest in Delgado. Honestly I see no hope of Murphy puting up an .844 OPS this season, however, if they think his more likely high .700′s is a better value…. But at this point if LaRoche is going to be that cheap and you have the extra money, why not? I also think it’s insane to not sign a guy for 1+2 years because of a guy who has had 1 good and 1 bad season in the minors and still has yet to play an entire season above A ball.
dirtysanchez
1/11/2010-9:49am at 9:49 am (UTC -4)
I agree with that but im sure that the way they are “hyping” up davis, you can best believe he will be up here much sooner than he should be. I think if Delgado has too much competition(AL teams DH spots) and can get a deal more than $5 guarenteed + incentives, the Mets should bail and make a decent attempt at laroche…problem is he rejected a 2/17 year deal already…i dont think they should go much above that.
trs86
1/11/2010-9:54am at 9:54 am (UTC -4)
LaRoche shot himself in the foot. He’s not going to even get that in my opinion. There’s no market.
Also for Delgado, with Vlad getting 5, Glaus 2 and Huff 3 I think his market is set.
My best hope is that the O’s sign Delgado. Then LaRoche is left with nothing besides the Mets and Braves. Based on rumors the Braves don’t plan on spending that kind of money.
njstuckintx
1/11/2010-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
I think you are right. This might be a perfect storm. 1+1 may just get LaRoche, even a 1 year and then he can go back out on the market…
I do wish that how his season progresses was reverse. He always ends strong. Great if he started on fire, started fizzling and then Davis is called up and hits moon shot after moon shot. I know this to be a dream, but the thought did sound nice rattling around in my skull.
dirtysanchez
1/11/2010-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
I honestly see gado signing a one year deal with us before the O’s. If the O’s snatch up gado, i see murphy as the starting 1b man in ’10. Just dont see the Mets commiting that money when they clearly need help in other areas. I understand the attraction to laroche but even when he could have been had for next to nothing, the mets didnt make a play for him (when murphy was “learning” 1b). I just dont think the Mets want laroche to be honest and would rather start off the year with gado/murphy or garko(one year deal because davis will be up here)/murphy
trs86
1/11/2010-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
We shall see. Too early at this point as their market shrinks. As for Delgado here or there, I would honestly think the O’s make more sense for him. Better park, ability to play DH.
dirtysanchez
1/11/2010-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
but are going nowhere fast and they play in a division with the yankees/red sox. Ya gotta think gado is near retirement and probably just wants one more shot at a post season and as bad as some of us think our team is…we have a better shot at the post season than the O’s. Like you said, better off to wait and see…who knows what will happen in this crazy market.
trs86
1/11/2010-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
True, but it depends on IF Delgado plans to play another year after this one. He can go to the O’s on a one year deal, showcase his talent, get traded during the year to a playoff team like the O’s do or sign with another team for more money next year. I just think he would be more likely to put up better numbers with the O’s.
metsfan4decades
1/11/2010-9:28am at 9:28 am (UTC -4)
From everything I’m reading – and take these rumors with a grain of salt – I get the impression the Mets first choice for signing help at 1st base is Delgado, if healthy – on a one year contract.
Now Delgado hasn’t even played the field yet so who knows where he’s at. If the Mets move away from Delgado, do you think they’ll then look at someone else on a one year, such as LaRoche, for a true platoon with Murphy? Or just go with Murphy full time and a utility guy for insurance?
trs86
1/11/2010-9:31am at 9:31 am (UTC -4)
I don’t have a clue. I think originally it was to find a platoon mate. However, with Delgado and LaRoche’s competition shrinking every day I imagine the Mets get one and the O’s get the other.
metsfan4decades
1/11/2010-10:02am at 10:02 am (UTC -4)
Sounds reasonable.
I believe LaRoche has some experience at 3rd base, right? So if we got him, at least he can play third also when Wright is getting a day off. If, God forbid, Wright winds up on the DL, not sure if LaRoche is a good enough 3rd baseman to play for extended period of time. Not saying he’s not, just saying I really don’t know…..
trs86
1/11/2010-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
He has not played 3B. That’s his brother Andy.
metsfan4decades
1/11/2010-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
Oops, my bad. I guess I need to pay better attention to first names when I’m looking at stats….
trs86
1/11/2010-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, well they did play for the same Pirates team.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/11/2010-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
Mattsblog says that Delgado played the field yesterday for 5 innings.
trs86
1/11/2010-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
Yup, he did indeed. I think the test now is that he would need to play 3 games in a row. So I expect a day off from the field today and then 3 in a row.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/11/2010-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
Yeah. The true test would be to play him 3 days in a row.
Even if Delgado comes to the Mets, I doubt he’ll start more than 120 games. You would think Murphy will play 1/3 of the time
trs86
1/11/2010-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
Maybe. I don’t know what the Mets plans will be for Murphy if they sign Delgado. Perhaps a trade or maybe back to the minors to learn to be a utility man?
It would be hard to keep Murphy on the bench if the only spot he can play is 1B and he is the same handedness of the guy he is backing up.
wannybackstra
1/11/2010-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think it matters what side of the plate he hits from. He’s not going to platoon with Delgado. He’ll need to play to limit Delgado’s exposure to injury — not to limit his exposure to certain pitchers.
Anyway, if Murphy is not starting he’s better off in AAA playing everyday.
trs86
1/11/2010-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
All we hear about is how slow Molina is to 1B. Is there a stat for that somewhere? I know they are timed by the team but is it published? You would think it would be. It would be quite the interesting stat. I know that in the past we have heard about their time around the bases?
prismo
1/11/2010-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-by7vM-mIU
Oh lord that’s slow.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/11/2010-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
LaRoche at 1+1 I would definitely do. He’s younger and healthier than Delgado. Even if Delgado comes back healthy, he would probably put up similar numbers as LaRoche maybe slightly better.
If LaRoche is willing to take 1+1, I’d definitely do it.
If I were Omar, after confirming that Delgado is healthy, I would make an offer to both LaRoche and Delgado, saying whomever grabs it first will get the contract.
wannybackstra
1/11/2010-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
The “test” for Delgado’s health might be whether he could play three games in a row at 1B but the test for the Mets should be whether he could play 1B well.
trs86
1/11/2010-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)
LOL, who knows on that one? He was average last year up until the injury.
wannybackstra
1/11/2010-10:30am at 10:30 am (UTC -4)
See Lowell and Arod following their hip injuries and their declines in defensive performance.
And neither of those guys were just average to begin with (though ARod may have been trending that way at 3B).
All I’m saying is that whether Delgado can play 3 days in a row at 1B should be meaningless to the Mets. If he plays 1B like a statue for 3 day clips, I’m not interested.
trs86
1/11/2010-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)
True, and I get your point. But I don’t think the Mets could find this out based on a few games in Winter League. Obviously if he could prove that his market may increase along with his price. The uncertainty will be what keeps his price down and most likely why the Mets would be interested.
CaseStreet
1/11/2010-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
You know my opinion on this. I’ve been saying the mets should go after laroche since the days of Moses.
if murph really is a utility guy, might as well bring in a real 1B for a year or two while murph learns to play all positions and Davis continues to develop in AA and AAA.
CaseStreet
1/11/2010-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
And with delgado’s age, injury history and immobility, that 1B should not be delgado.
CaseStreet
1/11/2010-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
I do wonder if a garko/murph platoon could give similar but less expensive production than laroche.
wannybackstra
1/11/2010-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
I wonder if Laroche will be able to recover from one of his typical first halves (.252 .326 .447 career) in NY and produce one of his typical second halves (.300 .363 .546) under the scrutiny of us and the NY media.
CaseStreet
1/11/2010-11:07am at 11:07 am (UTC -4)
Laroche’s poor first half is similar to murphs line last year. Could murph give us a year of his 2nd half performance? Or if murph has a poor start while the media bashes Omar for not signing a “real” 1B, will Murphy be able to recover?
trs86
1/11/2010-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
.282 .313 .485 .798
There’s Murphy’s 2nd half. Even that is not .278 .357 .487 .844.
wannybackstra
1/11/2010-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
Laroche in his second season (his first full season) hit .259 .320 .455, not unlike Murhpy’s season. In his third he hit 285 .354 .561.
Maybe Murph can improve too after his first full season?
You’re comparing apples to oranges when you’re comparing the numbers of a 6 year veteran to a guy in his first major league season.
I’m sure the Mets don’t like Murph for his .313 OBP as much as they like him for his potential.
trs86
1/11/2010-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
True, but my contention was that LaRoche is much more of a sure thing and a team with playoff aspirations needs as many sure things as possible.
wannybackstra
1/11/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
I agree. I just prioritize replacing this uncertainty as lower than the others because this one, at least, has potential. I am much more concerned with the uncertainties behind the plate, in the rotation and in the bullpen.
trs86
1/11/2010-12:15pm at 12:15 pm (UTC -4)
True, but at this point I don’t think the difference in the cost of LaRoche and Garko is enough to warrant that concern. That is assuming the premise of the post that LaRoche indeed has no market and will take a 1+1 deal.
wannybackstra
1/11/2010-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
I wasn’t necessarily advocating for Murph over Laroche or looking to poke a hole in the Laroche suggestion. Rather, I was genuinely wondering whether Laroche would have the intestinal fortitude (thank you Gorilla Monsoon) to rebound from what is a pronounced and consistent career trend. It’s not really speculation at this point with Laroche. You almost have to expect him to start slow.
Murph had a significantly better second half to last year than he did a first (.282 .313 .485 v. .248 .314 .364) but I have no idea of that was a trend in his minor league career. Nonetheless, he managed to improve despite significant scrutiny and the multiple jerk-arounds he received from the head gangsta in charge.
dka
1/11/2010-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
LaRoche is a significant defensive upgrade to either Delgado or Murphy. In particular, my assumption is that he covers alot more ground laterally than either of these two, partially offsetting Castillo’s lateral limitations and making our pitching just a little bit better (and hopefully more confident).
njstuckintx
1/11/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
From just visuals on Murphy, I thought he had a fairly large range. I could be wrong, as my eyes have deceived me before.
wannybackstra
1/11/2010-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
Statistically, he scored a strong +6.3 range runs above average according to Fangraphs.
According to what I’ve read about his minor league 3B days, his biggest struggle was with throwing errors.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/11/2010-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2008&month=0
Shows Delgado was actually better defensively than LaRoche. LaRoche played better defense in 2009, but he’s still an average defensive 1B. With Delgado’s injury and lack of mobility, LaRoche would be better defensively, but he’s no Keith Hernandez.
GravediggerHebner
1/11/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
You guys have done a fine job of covering what I consider to be the pros and cons of a LaRoche signing above, kudos.
First this caveat from me: I’m a Murphy supporter (insert jock joke here) and I am hoping he gets and through performance keeps the job and that down the road the Mets are presented with the “dilemma” of too much talent at the position with the advancement of Davis over the next 2 seasons.
Having said that, I was terribly disappointed in the Mets roughly a year ago at this time when they fancied themselves contenders (and so did I) and yet they went into the regular season with the big question mark of Murphy in LF, only to have it flop while viable LF went below market late elsewhere.
If the team fancies themselves contenders again, It would behoove them not to make the same mistake twice. Another late off-season pass by the Mets on viable ML talent in favor of hope/faith, given the way ’07 & ’08 ended, and how horrible ’09 was, would be a major fail by the front office IMO.
Whether it’s a 1B such as LaRoche or not, this team had better take advantage of late off-season under market value viable major league talent this year at some position. Not a 40 year old at the end like Sheffield, but an actual player such as last year’s Abreu or Dunn.
trs86
1/11/2010-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
That I completely agree with. Who is the question mark in the Phillies lineup?
GravediggerHebner
1/11/2010-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
Whoever it may be, I submit he is less of a question mark than Murphy.
The flip side of course is that to be a championship team you also need to get unexpected positive contributions along the way. It’s counting too heavily on that which I am no longer interested in doing. I’ve done enough of it the last few years, only to have it fail. I’m tired of it.
So won’t it be funny when the Mets don’t get the viable ML players I covet and the guys I’ve become tired of waiting and hoping for finally come through.
wannybackstra
1/11/2010-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
Rollins’s spot in the lineup might not be questionable but after a .250 .296 .423 season and a steep decline in each of the last two seasons, his performance is certainly a question mark.
Fortunately for the Phils they could withstand his poor offense and keep him around for his defense and “leadership” because the rest of the lineup is pretty well stacked and the rotation is led by two horses.
trs86
1/11/2010-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I have had this debate on here before that Rollins was a question mark but I may have been shown the light considering normal SS numbers. It’s just his position in the lineup needs to be shifted down.
wannybackstra
1/11/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
His OPS might have been toward the middle of the shortstop position (11th out of 18 qualifiers) but his OBP and Batting Average were second to worst. Only he and Yuniesky Betancourt were below .300 OBP.
Anyway, I don’t mean to say that Rollins should be replaced. I’m just not so sure he won’t be worse this season, given his also sub par (for him) 2008 season.
wannybackstra
1/11/2010-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
Another interesting note on Rollins’s 2009. His was a one dimensional hitter: power. But on the road his SLG fell from 440 to 405 and his OPS from 755 to 682.
So, in effect, CBP might have made him seem better than he really was (which wasn’t good at all).
metsfan4decades
1/11/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
I just don’t see Hamels as a ‘horse’, yet…..
He had a great 2008 followed up by being a less than .500 pitcher in ’09 and a poor showing in the ’09 post season.
IMO, the jury is still out on Hamels. He’s got a fastball, change-up and a poor curveball right now. Unless he works on improving that curve or adding another pitch, I don’t know that his ’10 will be much better than his ’09 stats.
And Philly knows this. I’ve been reading they’re going to work on adding a slider or cutter to his repertoire this spring.
wannybackstra
1/11/2010-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
Hamels wasn’t really much worse in 2009 than he was in 2008.
His K rate was the same, his walk rate was slightly better. His GB/FB was essentially the same.
The big difference was that he gave up more hits than usual. But his BABIP was unreasonably high (.325) compared to his other seasons (.295 career average which is about the average of the league). His 2008 BABIP was .270.
Some of that might be attributable to fielders, bad luck and to Cole himself.
If his BABIP corrects itself to league average, he projects to be about the same guy he was in 2007 and 2008.
I think too much was made of his “decline” just because of his ERA.
Mr North Jersey
1/11/2010-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
circle gets the square.
CaseStreet
1/11/2010-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
You always put things in great perspective grave. What you present would indeed be a major fail by the F.O.
Perhaps the 2010 motto should be “hope in cerainty.”
njstuckintx
1/11/2010-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Take advantage of any and all situations. Buy low, sell high. Not only fill holes, but stock for depth.
The good teams do this. We hope the Mets want to be a good team!
Mr North Jersey
1/11/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
So Chapman to the Reds?
25 Million over what 5 years and payments are spread out over 10 years?
An option for a 6th year and a base salary of 1 million in 2010?
If true barring injuries sounds like a good deal for the Reds.
GravediggerHebner
1/11/2010-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
To me the best part for the Reds is the $1 mil this year. Doesn’t make them alter the way they’re approaching 2010 at all IMO.
wannybackstra
1/11/2010-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
It sounds like this interesting blog on UZR was based on our discussion here last week:
http://www.walkoffwalk.com/2010/01/uzr-i-zee-trouble.html
GravediggerHebner
1/11/2010-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
Thank you for the link Wanny. It’s refreshing to learn that what I thought was a two-sided discussion involving staunch sabermetric supporters closing ranks and mocking those who use eyes instead of math versus advocates of more traditional scouting closing ranks and mocking those who use math instead of eyes, it seems there is a growing third side to the discussion, a group I feel most in tune with, a group that strives to better understand both of the other two groups and combine the best attributes of both.
trs86
1/11/2010-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
AH, for example me. I am not a big fan of UZR for 1B at all but I am much more open to it’s merits for positions that should value range over everyday play making ability. Thus CF and SS it could be a very good tool especially.