Well it seems that the only news trickling out of the fall out shelter in Citi Field is of the Mets possible interest in starting pitchers Jarrod Washburn and Joel Pinero, and also the fact that Carlos Delgado is displaying the same amount of range at first base as the cutout of the New York Lottery spokesman. Honestly if I had my druthers I would choose neither Washburn nor Pinero but I would take a chance on Ben Sheets. Sheets has proven ( when healthy) to be a dominant number two pitcher that we crave, while Pinero’s recent success is probably linked to uber pitching coach Dave Duncan and Washburn is just straight up mediocre. In the case of Carlos Delgado, his new found lack of range doesn’t surprise me, He was never exactly what you would call ” nimble ” when patrolling first base. But if we sign him and he does his best impression of being a drug store cigar Indian well lets just say that I’d rather take a chance on signing Adam LaRoche on a one year deal.
Â
                                                         
                                                         “ Who has better range at first base?”
And with that said - HERE COMES THE INFAMY !!!
Happy Birthday to the Cy Young award winning pitcher for the San Diego Padres who totally sh&t the bed as soon as he donned a Mets jersey,Randy Jones (1950).
First baseman Mike Marshall is 50(1960) . Mike has the dubious distinction of replacing the beloved Keith Hernandez at first base in 1990.
Back up infielder, Jorge Velandia is 35 (1975).
Journeyman reliever,and nephew of former Met Benny Ayala, Luis Ayala is 32(1978) .
New York Mets selected catcher Ron Hodges in free agent draft on January 12, 1972. Hodges was the mainstay back up catchers, making his debut in ’73, and he played on all those all those putrid Mets teams from ’76 to his his release in ’84.
New York Mets selected pitcher Randy Tate in fifth round of free agent draft on January 12, 1972. Tate pitched in only one season for the Mets ( ’75), going a horrendous 5-13 with a E.R.A of 4.45. He was never seen again after that season.
Los Angeles Dodgers signed shortstop Kevin Elster of the New York Mets as a free agent on January 12, 1993. Elster proved to be a all glove, no bat infielder for the Mets until he signed elsewhere and turned into a power hitting home run threat. Was he on steroids you might ask? Your guess is as good as mine.
New York Yankees signed back up first baseman Tony Clark of the New York Mets as a free agent on January 12, 2004.
San Diego Padres signed utility fielder Eric Valent of the New York Mets as a free agent on January 12, 2006.
New York Mets signed free agent pitcher Tim Redding of the Washington Nationals on January 12, 2009. This was a head scratching moment for Mets fans who asked why are we committing two million dollars to a scrub starting pitcher? And after the season ended , Mets fans asked why did we commit two million dollars for a fat, lazy scrub pitcher who pitched mediocre at best last season ?
And remember while you are counting down the days until pitchers and catchers report – there are just 83 days until the Mets open the 2010 season against the Florida Marlins at Citi Field.
119 comments
darknova306
1/12/2010-6:26am at 6:26 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, Rusty, I’d love Sheets once his price comes down, but he’s too much of an injury risk to be our only rotation upgrade. We still need a guy that we can be confident will give us 200-ish innings. Ollie, Maine, Niese, Nieve, Misch, etc will not give us close to that. Now, I want nothing to do with Pineiro or Washburn, but we do need someone that will eat innings and keep that bullpen fresh, especially when we have no idea how Pelfrey will do.
prismo
1/12/2010-7:36am at 7:36 am (UTC -4)
If nothing else, Pelfrey did pitch 200 innings in 2008 and 184 innings in 2009 (with one less start) – I bet he throws at least 190 this season. Johan, if healthy, is a lock for at least 220 innings. Ollie, again – if healthy, will throw at least 180 innings (32 starts, 5.6 innings per start).
Maine…who knows. I have doubts he can stay healthy for an entire season, and I have no idea how many innings per start he might average. Could be anywhere from 5.5 to 6.0 based on his career so far (~175-195 innings with 32 starts).
When healthy, Pineiro’s shown throughout his career that he can average over 6 innings per start, which would mean over 200 innings. Of course, he only made 25 starts in 2008 and 11 in 2007 (with 31 relief appearances). He’s never started at least 30 games two years in a row.
darknova306
1/12/2010-8:22am at 8:22 am (UTC -4)
I didn’t mean to say we don’t have anyone that can give 200+ innings. Johan will be 220+ easily (and I’m confident he’ll be fine health-wise).
Yeah, it looks like the innings for Pelfrey isn’t the real question, it’s the quality of those innings.
When has Ollie shown a consistent ability to throw 180+?
Completely agreed on Maine. That’s my issue with him, health.
Pineiro just has bust written all over him to me. No well-written opinion piece to back that up, it’s just a feeling to me. Though, having him out of the Cardinals rotation keeps him from dominating us again.
trs86
1/12/2010-8:34am at 8:34 am (UTC -4)
I completely agree. I would even be ok with signing Washburn THEN Sheets. But in my opinion we have to have someone that is as close to a lock as possible of being in the rotation all year.
Then if we need an upgrade during the season we can get it done.
Also, signing Pineiro or Washburn does NOT keep you from trading for Arroyo. It just frees up Maine to be part of the trade.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/12/2010-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
I was for the other combination. Sheets THEN Washburn/Piniero/etc… but I’m leaning towards your way now. Although it is doubtful Mets sign 2 SPs this off-season, safer/conservative way would be to go with Washburn/Piniero/etc THEN Sheets.
Plus, it sounds like Sheets is seeking 1+1 deal 12M per with player option in 2011 (crazy dude).
trs86
1/12/2010-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
I could deal with that first year if it was at say 6 million guaranteed and up to 12. I am really suspect of a guy who has not pitched healthy in a long time demanding a big guaranteed deal. To me this screams that he himself does not know if he can make it through a year.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/12/2010-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
Player option gives him the power to go to FA market if he stays healthy and pitches well. And if he doesn’t stay healthy, he’ll pick up the option and get paid.
There’s no way teams will bite. At worst, I think his contract should be 1+1 with vesting option, option being picked up if he pitches 180 innings.
njstuckintx
1/12/2010-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)
Maybe it’s just me, but “innings eater” is such a stupid term. We can run crap out there and keep them in the game until they hit 7 innings all the time. Are they, then, considered an innings eater? If all that means is that the pitcher has the stamina to pitch late into games, I’d prefer to take use the Poo Poo platter of what we have in the Neise, Neive, Misch, Figgy, etc. and take the chance on a Sheets. Said Poo Poo’s are more cost effect for not much of a drop below a Washburn or even Pineiro (based on what he wants and his track record).
darknova306
1/12/2010-9:25am at 9:25 am (UTC -4)
It’s a combo of being able to pitch deep, but also not sucking to the extent where you’re routinely taken out early.
njstuckintx
1/12/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
That should eliminate Washburn then…
Seriously, though, I think with the myriad of AAAA pitchers currently in the system and an addition of Sheets pushing (probably) Maine back to the #6 starter, that would be sufficient. Just pitch the AAAA until their arms fall off, bring up the next guy, wash, rinse, repeat.
Don’t get me wrong, if you could load up so much than Pelf, Ollie and Maine are your #6, #7 & #8 pitchers resepectively, I’m all for that.
trs86
1/12/2010-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
It does not at all eliminate Washburn.
Last year Washburn averaged 6 1/3 innings per start with an ERA under 4.00.
Maine and Ollie are not able to get into the 7th inning on any consistency. We have no idea what those AAAA guys would provide but I can almost bet they would be more likely to be 5 inning 5-6 ERA guys than 6+ inning 4′s ERA guys. That’s a big difference.
trs86
1/12/2010-9:37am at 9:37 am (UTC -4)
It does not have to mean crap innings. Neise, Neive, Misch nor Figgy have proved that they can pitch to an ERA under 5.00 for 200 innings. When you look at their current ERA of say 4.87 in 100 innings that may be that they were pulled after 5 innings because they had too many pitches or were knocked out of the game. A guy who has over 200 innings and say a 4.50 ERA has much more value than say a guy who had 100 innings with a 4.00 ERA.
njstuckintx
1/12/2010-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
This takes into account that one of the starters will be going down. Signing Sheets pushes everyone back one slot (minus Johan), making Maine your 6th man for arguements sake. If more than one goes down for an exteme length of time, Mets are screwed anyway. I would think you would only need 100 innings out of those guys anywho.
If you know they aren’t going deep into games, just plan on running Neive for 4 and Figgy for 3. Let them throw 80-90 pitches each if necessary.
Please note, that this is not a receipe for success, but assuming multiple starters go down, creativity will have to be exercised. And at that point, it’ll have to be many a 10-8 or 7-6 run victories to be competitive to say the least.
trs86
1/12/2010-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
But the problem is that by signing Sheets you are upping the possibility ten fold that a guy like Figgy is going to get 100 innings where as with Washburn or Pineiro you are lessening the chances of Figgy getting significant time.
If Sheets was a lock to give you say 150 innings, those 50 innings could be picked up by mess and give you a better total than Washburn. If Sheets gives you 100 or less then those combined with Figgy’s 100 and the stress on the pen are very damaging. It’s not like the manager can actually go in saying I will pitch Neive for 4 and Figgy for 3. What if the game is close after 4 innings of Neive but he is spent? Still throwing out Figgy there?
njstuckintx
1/12/2010-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
I see your point on 150 innings on Sheets, but if he’s going down, you’re slotting in Maine, not Figgy and the funky bunch.
And yes, I would toss out there Figgy in a close game. A close game after 4 innings still has many an inning to be played.
I’m sure this will all be moot when Omar signs Piniero. Only hope that this fits your wants of Piniero first and then Sheets second!
trs86
1/12/2010-10:09am at 10:09 am (UTC -4)
If we get 150 innings of Sheets we are golden.
Problem is I don’t even think SHEETS thinks he will get 150 innings. That 100 or less scares me badly. We would then have no money to upgrade during the season and be left with a hole.
Also, I am lost here.
Johan, ?, Pelfrey, Maine, Perez…. How is Maine filling in first? You can’t be counting on Niese?
Also by going your route you also limit the choices in the pen. You have to keep a guy like Figgy in the pen who most likely won’t be used but 1-2 times a week tops.
njstuckintx
1/12/2010-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
Honestly, I don’t know what I was thinking on the 5th Starter for the Mets. I guess I was assuming Niese, who while I think can be that guy, I wouldn’t be ready to hand him that role for sure.
Work keeps getting in the way of clear thought.
trs86
1/12/2010-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
LOL, understood.
That is why my hopes were for 2 SP this off-season. I would have preferred one to be a true A/B type pitcher but with the questions we have I will take a C and a possible B.
dirtysanchez
1/12/2010-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
NO MORE AWFUL REYES HAHAA…signed with the dodgers
trs86
1/12/2010-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
I know, just when I was filling for royalties on the name too.
prismo
1/12/2010-9:24am at 9:24 am (UTC -4)
Interesting little “study” I did on BABiP out of curiosity. Turns out the standard deviation in 2009 for BABiP (players over 500 AB – 157 of them) is actually slightly HIGHER than it is for batting average.
That means if you hear someone (like me, for example) say “X player’s BABiP in ’09 was only .260, so he’s likely to pull it up closer to .300 this season and hit for a better batting average” then it holds just as much weight as if you heard “X player’s batting average was only .260 in ’09, so he’s likely to hit .300 in 2010!” The second quote would be ludicrous unless the player’s .260 season was well below his career average, so why should we believe that BABiP holds any less individual skill meaning than BA?
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
that’s just cookie!
prismo
1/12/2010-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
chocolate chip?
(what the heck are you talking about)
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
youknow, Cu-Key! As in Wacky! (Sarcasm)
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
I’d be down for Jo-Rel at that 2/15. Like trs said, you can still have Wilpon Bucks left over for a mid-season acquisition.
Interestingly, according to Baseball Reference, Jo-Rel is most similar to Bobby Jones, Bronson Arroyo, Cory Lidle, Jason Marquis, and Gil Meche.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_pitch.cgi?I=pineijo01:Joel%20Pineiro&st=career&compage=&age=
trs86
1/12/2010-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
As I said sign Pineiro and then keep working the phones on Arroyo.
Johan, Pelfrey, Pineiro, Arroyo, Perez looks much better than what we got.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
That’s quite a motley crue. Poor Johan.
You figure someone’s gotta step up.
prismo
1/12/2010-10:06am at 10:06 am (UTC -4)
Big Pelf!
trs86
1/12/2010-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
I disagree that pitching staff is not a bad regular season staff at all.
You most likely get 200 innings from at least 4/5 pitchers. It may be 1, 4, 3, 3, 5 but it’s certainly not
1, 4, 5, 5, 5.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-10:16am at 10:16 am (UTC -4)
Assuming, the Mets do bring in Jor-El or Garland, I guess the question around trading for Arroyo or Harang would be:
1. How much does he improve the team over Maine?
2. Will that improvement justify the increased salary and loss in prospects/players?
The good thing is that by waiting for the trade deadline, at least we get a chance to see what Maine’s got. On the same hand, though, if Maine stinks it up he becomes less of a trade chip.
trs86
1/12/2010-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
True, but I would think that there is also the chance of unloading Castillo in that deal for the #2 although less now.
But to me Arroyo is the BEST that Maine could be ASSUMING healthy. That’s a lot to ride on. Say Pineiro takes a deal like 6 for the first year and 10 for the second then Arroyo and Pineiro combined make about 18 million. Take out Maine’s money and you are closer to 15 million added but you have added 400 sure innings instead of keeping another question mark.
To me it’s very dangerous going in to this season depending on Maine AND Perez to produce.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/12/2010-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
I agree. As much as I like Maine’s fiery mentality, Arroyo would be the better choice there.
I doubt Reds will take Castillo’s salary though. I think Arroyo for Maine + B-level prospects.
steveo
1/12/2010-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
Signing any pitcher this year to anything more than a one year deal is foolish, mostley because it ties up the money and a availible spots for next years fa pitchers some of who could be Becket and Lee to name a few. Also if by some miricle one of our own youngsters shine they won’t be able to be promoted. Look at what we would have going into 2011 as far as a rotation Santana,Pelfrey, Pinero,Perez,and the # 5 man who ever that is and we know we already have to Many of them.If its sheets one a one year incentive laden deal with an option I’m good but please no Pinero for more than 1.
trs86
1/12/2010-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)
But what is the long-term difference in signing Pineiro for 2/15 or Sheets for 1/12?
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
re: Pineiro, as I wrote in the other relevant topic:
I’m torn on this. One one hand, the team really needs a bonafide front of the rotation guy, which Jo-L is not.
On the other hand, it seems unlikely at this point that such pitcher can be acquired. So the best strategy might then be to put as many eggs in the basket as possible in order to fill out the 4 spots in the rotation behind Johan as possible.
In the latter regard, this signing for this money would be fine. Pineiro is just as likely as any of the others (Pelfrey, Perez, Maine, Niese, etc.) to be solid and can conceivably be anywhere from 2-5 in the rotation. Since he’d only be getting paid under the suggested terms as a #4 it’s worth the risk.
If somehow all of these guys pitch to their capabilities, a very unlikely scenario, the rotation would be quite strong. More likely, it will be mediocre with some pitching well and others not. But mediocre is better than poor and I’ll take any improvement I can get.
Pineiro gives them a better chance to be better than if they signed no one.
trs86
1/12/2010-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
Right, mediocre can also get you to the all-star break where a guy like Webb might be available.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
very true. Garland won’t come cheaper and isn’t better.
Sheets seems to want too much, though I wonder if the Cubs do acquire Sheets, how it would effect Big Z. Would he become more tradeable?
trs86
1/12/2010-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Great question. Also, I assumed they were going to sign Hudson but that has not happen yet.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
Ideally, the Cubs would sign Sheets, trade us Big Z and take on Castillo so the Mets can fulfill the ulti-met match with McGriddle.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
I know projections don’t mean much but it’s still a fun game to play. According to Bill James:
Santana 17-8, 3.08 ERA, 225 IP
Pelfrey 9-12, 4.45 ERA, 194 IP
Pineiro 12-11, 4.17 ERA, 205 IP
Arroyo 11-12, 4.11 ERA, 210 IP
Perez 8-11, 4.73 ERA, 173 IP
Niese 6-8, 4.50 ERA, 118 IP
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
I’d settle for the ERAs and IPs for Pineiro and Arroyo.
Of course, our two suckpiles are not so good. But if we got those ERAs and IPs from our rotation we might be ok.
trs86
1/12/2010-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, and of course those are predictions so just like you have the chance that one of those guys tanks you also have the chance that a guy like Pelfrey returns to 2008 form.
njstuckintx
1/12/2010-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
Those assumptions for Arroyo and Pineiro and based on not being NY Mets, right? I wonder how their projections would change.
DNDJohan aka kistics
1/12/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
I think Pelf and Ollie will have better years. Not basing my opinion on anything, BUT given the fact that the offense will be stronger IF healthy which will relieve some stress level on SPs.
And Arroyo definitely will have better years than 11 wins.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
crap, forgot about Maine
Maine 9-9, 3.86 ERA, 168 IP
prismo
1/12/2010-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
Pelfrey’s projection makes NO sense to me.
James lowers his ERA by a full half point (from 5.03 to 4.45), gives him 10 more innings pitching (from 184 to 194)…but gives him a worse record!! All while considering how terrible the Mets were last season, and how even most of the worst case scenarios for this year should lead to a better team record.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
Prismo, you starting a Big Pelf fan club?
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
Washburn appeared in 28 games in each of the last two seasons for 176 and 153 innings, respectively.
Hardly an innings eater by any definition (less than 6 IP in 2008 per game).
If we’re going to sign crap to save the bullpen, we’d be better off with Garland and his 190+ per season.
trs86
1/12/2010-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
What about last year for Washburn? How many innings did he average then?
Not really fair for us to use Washburn’s 2008 stats but not point out Pineiro was even worse in 2008.
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
I didn’t think I was comparing Washburn to Pineiro.
I thought I was only commenting on Washburn’s ability to eat innings.
You are the one above who made the mistake of only looking at his IP/Start of last year, ignoring his previous season(s) and the fact that last season he missed 5-6 starts from injury (which is exactly the type of thing you are trying to avoid with this type of signing).
trs86
1/12/2010-11:11am at 11:11 am (UTC -4)
True, but I was under the assumption that Washburn and Pineiro were choices and that both had a bad 2008.
I think at this point if we are signing any of these guys, their 2009 is more relevant than their 2008. Thus when I quoted how many innings per start Washburn pitched why would I need to go back to 2008? Should I have went back to 2007 as well? Perhaps I should use 2008 for Maine, Ollie and Pelfrey?
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)
Just forget it. Just forget everything.
If you can’t understand that I was merely commenting on Washburn’s inability to “eat innings” then I apologize for my poor wording (though I don’t see any reference to Pineiro whatsoever in my post).
But if you can’t understand why more than one year’s worth of data is relevant then I can’t help you.
Lastly, even Washburn’s 2009 stats alone suggest he’s no “innings eater.” 28 starts, consistent with the number of appearances in 2008, alone suggests a durability issue which shoul dbe the most prominent feature of an innings eater. Along with that was his 170 or so innings, a relatively unimpressive total.
trs86
1/12/2010-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
That is true, the # of starts could be alarming.
Of course I understand why more than one year is relevant, it’s just not AS relevant as the previous year in trying to figure out what they may give us the following year IF you are only signing them to 1 year.
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-11:11am at 11:11 am (UTC -4)
As far as “sign Pitcher X, while continuing pursuit of Arroyo” I don’t know the validity of the source but Joe DeMayo of NYBD (is this the same Joe D of Mets Merized Online?) says:
“price on Arroyo still is F. Martinez plus.”
http://twitter.com/joe_demayo/status/7650810631
trs86
1/12/2010-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)
They want Fmart, they take Castillo. Plain and simple. The more money we have to pay the less the prospect.
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
I guess. I have often expressed my lack of understanding of prospect values and how to interpret them in the context of proposing trading minor league prospects for major league players, but having reiterated that I just “get the feeling” that I want a pitcher better than Arroyo if I’m giving up a prospect as highly ranked as FMart.
Ultimately I’ll leave that type of proposal to people who enjoy it more/are better at it than I am. Just sayin’ I’m not a huge fan of this one from my limited perspective.
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
I agree with you Grave. F-Mart is still arguably the Mets best prospect and performed well at a young age in AAA. Unless they are convinced that he will never be healthy, I can’t see trading one of my two or three best chips for Bronson Arroyo in what has to be considered a salary dump trade for Cincy. I wouldn’t expect 30 teams to be lining up for him with his salary either.
trs86
1/12/2010-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
True, but would it be more worth it if they took the 12 million owed to Castillo?
Not saying they would.
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
Not to me. Giving away my best prospect for an okay pitcher and some salary relief seems like a bad idea. Didn’t the Red Sox sell Babe Ruth to the Yankees for money to finance a play?
Anyway, I don’t see why the Reds, who are theoretically trying to relieve some money would then pay Castillo.
trs86
1/12/2010-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t either.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
And why would they want Castillo when they have Phillips?
I get your point about money and prospects, but we all know nothing about trades are plain and simple.
Still, I’m not trading F-Mart, unless we’re getting an ace.
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Matthew Artus of NJ.com has a nice replica of TRS’ article from yesterday about 1B up today. If anyone here is a member of NJ.com they might want to drop in and let Artus know that Mike Jacobs bats lefty. He suggests that Jacobs would make a nice platoon partner with Murphy and describes Jacobs as “Garko-lite” which would only make sense if Jacobs batted righty, which he does not.
http://blog.nj.com/mets/2010/01/getting_to_first_base.html
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
funny,
An Evans/Murphy platoon could be interesting
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
To us, perhaps. To Jerry Manuel, according to Matthew Artus, not so much.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
Who doesn’t like a good platoon?
Speaking of platoons. Now that the Pirates signed Church they should be out of the running for Ankiel. His options just got worse since all these guys are looking for bench jobs:
Xavier Nady, Reed Johnson, Rocco Baldelli, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Marcus Thames.
Maybe we can offer an Omar type contract to have Ankiel as protection for Frenchy and the power bat off the bench. Plus, according to Mattsblog, he can still pitch.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
forgot about Randy Winn
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-12:57pm at 12:57 pm (UTC -4)
LOL.
I am really enamored of Hairston’s positional versatility.
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-1:40pm at 1:40 pm (UTC -4)
Yes, but Ankiel is clearly not interested in pitching in NY.
stickguy
1/12/2010-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
F Mart isnt getting traded for a MOR SP with a bloated contract. Once the Reds (seemingly) moved from a salary dump to clear payroll to thinking they are trading the crown jewels but only if overwhelmed, the chances of dealing with them went way down.
At this point, things should start popping. 1/2 way through January, and FAs are getting antsy, and GMs are trying to wrap up rosters to get ready for ST.
So, while the hot stove talk has been (sometimes!) exciting (especially the jovial banter between TRS and Wanny), I am ready to have a complete ST roster to rip apart (err, mull over?). Sure there will be some open spots for competition (pen, bench, maybe #5 starter), at least the pool of choices should be pretty well set (barring a Sheffield like surprise).
So, my current thoughts are that they likely get pinero (2 years) and Molina (damn, I hope on a 1+1). Not really what I would do, but acceptable.
Then, just say screw it, and if Hudson is lingering and can be had for 1 year cheap (3 mill base?), just do it (and I am still not a huge O Dog fan, but 1 cheap year? OK!) Perfect strom is they can move Castillo plus a wad of cash (say, 6-8 mill) to the CUbs for something, most likely a spare part or fringe prospect. He could become the last man on the bench too, but if it comes to that, probably better to release him.
Just please, get better (rangier) defense in the infield! Should probably do more for the pitching staff then what you get from any of the FA SPs.
If Garko is still around too, and can be had cheap, do that too. Otherwise, that role will get filled in ST from the available choices hanging around PSL.
So, to summarize:
Adding: Panera bread, Hudson, Molina, Garko
Deleting: Castillo
The rest of the pieces needed are already on hand. I also expect a serious rebound year from Maine, and (assuming he is 100% healed from the hammy), a break out season for NEise, who starts in AAA and comes up mid-year.
Do I think this will happen? No. Or at least, the Pinera/molina part will, just not the rest!
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
Panera bread – good
Joel Pineiro – not so good
I’m still excited about this month. Many possibilities.
It’s February that I’m dreading. Everything should be set by then, but no ST means dead time.
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know what to expect anymore, I just know that once Lackey went off the board so did my impatience. While I am open minded enough to believe improvements to the team can be made in the roughly 5 weeks between now and pitchers & catchers reporting, I am not particularly looking forward eagerly to the ones that seem likely.
At this point it seems like a stand off and I guess we’ll see who if anyone blinks as regards the remaining free agents.
trs86
1/12/2010-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
Right, if
A: Pineiro, Molina, Garko
B: Garland, Barajas, Delgado
Are they really that much different?
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
Well depending on how you view them, yes.
Garland more consistent pitcher than Pineiro, Molina more consistent power hitter than Barajas, Garko works with Murphy on the roster, Delgado doesn’t really, at least not as well IMO.
trs86
1/12/2010-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
Right, but what I am saying is that I am not sure the differences either drastically improve or decrease our chances of winning.
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-1:51pm at 1:51 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t follow the logic there but you’ve given yourself so much wiggle room with the use of the word “drastically” that I see no point in continuing.
trs86
1/12/2010-1:54pm at 1:54 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, true.
Let me try again. I am not sure that the Mets can go wrong with any of those combination because their impacts will most likely be similar.
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-2:11pm at 2:11 pm (UTC -4)
I consider that a fair statement.
My personal opinion is I would prefer the consistency of performance demonstrated by Garland and Molina over the less consistent last 3-5 years of Pineiro and Barajas, but I can’t honestly say which group would benefit the Mets more going forward, I just believe based on past performance Garland and Molina offer “greater certainty” of doing so and if it were my money I’d feel more comfortable giving it to them and expecting them to provide positive performance.
trs86
1/12/2010-2:18pm at 2:18 pm (UTC -4)
Right and I think those things will tie us up in debates from Feb. until who knows how long. But in the grand scheme of things…
(Granted it’s those kinds of debates I love the best.)
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-1:46pm at 1:46 pm (UTC -4)
If the Panera bread comes with either of the potato soup or the summer corn chowder, sign me up for lunch.
trs86
1/12/2010-1:50pm at 1:50 pm (UTC -4)
Wanny, is there a published stat showing player times to 1B? I tried to find one to no avail. I would assume those records are kept.
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-2:07pm at 2:07 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t know of one off hand.
OBP seems to do the trick, though.
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
I think he meant speed. I have never seen such a stat, I only hear it occasionally mentioned in pre-game show puff pieces about super fast guys.
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-2:17pm at 2:17 pm (UTC -4)
Ha!
What is this, the NFL combine?
trs86
1/12/2010-2:20pm at 2:20 pm (UTC -4)
I know it has to be measured and reported though. It would be interesting to see how slow Molina actually is or how much faster Reyes is.
trs86
1/12/2010-2:21pm at 2:21 pm (UTC -4)
I think that could be an interesting stat to player value. I guess speed would show up in OBP if the guy was fast but that is not always the case. But also things like scoring from 2nd on a single… I am sure things like that are measured but it may still not tell me if one player is faster than another or runs the bases better than another.
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-2:30pm at 2:30 pm (UTC -4)
Fastest man
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090612&content_id=5285402&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
trs86
1/12/2010-2:36pm at 2:36 pm (UTC -4)
So it’s measured but where the heck is it posted?
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/TOB_leagues.shtml
trs86
1/12/2010-2:17pm at 2:17 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, thanks for the response but yes I was referring to speed to first base as in time taken to get to 1B. Sorry.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-2:34pm at 2:34 pm (UTC -4)
fangraphs has a Spd stat (I have no idea how it is calculated)
Of all qualified players, Molina is only better than Dunn, and Matsui, and tied with Scott and Peralta.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2009&month=0
trs86
1/12/2010-2:45pm at 2:45 pm (UTC -4)
Hmmm, I wonder what stats go in to that. It does not list it in their glossary.
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
Speed Score
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Speed Score is a statistic used in Sabermetric studies to evaluate a baseball player’s speed. It was invented by Bill James, and first appeared in the 1987 edition of the Bill James Baseball Abstract.[1]
Speed Score includes five factors: stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities, triples, double plays grounded into as a percentage of opportunities, and runs scored as a percentage of times on base.[2] Baseball Prospectus has developed a modified version of Speed Score that equally weights each component.[3]
trs86
1/12/2010-3:01pm at 3:01 pm (UTC -4)
Hmmm. So it still does not measure actual speed as much as it does hits and stolen bases. I still like the stat because it’s based on production. I would like to see however a list that just has speed itself. You could also use that to compare the list.
So I am guessing the one Fangraphs uses is the old speed?
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
Their “quick glossary” says “4 component version.”
I don’t know this but since the definition above suggests the “old” one includes “5 factors” I am going to guess that fangraphs uses the new one.
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
here we go:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/speed-score/
trs86
1/12/2010-3:21pm at 3:21 pm (UTC -4)
Hmmm, so it’s not the advanced one.
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-3:27pm at 3:27 pm (UTC -4)
If you say so I have no reason to disbelieve you but from reading what I have so far, left to my own judgment I can’t tell what the “adavanced one” is or isn’t, I can only say that there is a 4-component version and a 5-component version and that fangraphs uses the former.
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-3:28pm at 3:28 pm (UTC -4)
Not sure what you mean by “the advanced one.” The Fangraphs version does not include the component of the Bill James one that counts double plays.
I don’t know if that makes it less advanced or if it means Fangraphs’ editors found that component to be least reliable.
That component is reliant on pitchers, defense and the batter’s propensity to his fly balls v. ground balls.
trs86
1/12/2010-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
No I was looking at this from fangraphs:
We’ve added Bill James’ Speed Score to the player pages, leaderboards, and team pages.
We’re using the 4 component version, which is an average of Stolen Base Percentage, Frequency of Stolen Base Attempts, Percentage of Triples, and Runs Scored Percentage.
Yet this from Case:
Speed Score includes five factors: stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities, triples, double plays grounded into as a percentage of opportunities, and runs scored as a percentage of times on base.[2]
Baseball Prospectus has developed a modified version of Speed Score that equally weights each component.[3]
So my assumption was that fangraphs was using the original Bill James stat where as BP was using the modified version.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
here’s another stat that can be found on baseball reference
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=Eqbrr
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-3:11pm at 3:11 pm (UTC -4)
another interesting read about EqBrr
trs86
1/12/2010-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
So far I like this one the best.
Equivalent Base Running Runs. Measures the number of runs contributed by a player’s advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table. EqBRR is calculated as the sum of various baserunning components: Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Equivalent Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Equivalent Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR).
trs86
1/12/2010-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
Wow and what does it tell us. What our eyes and hears have seen and heard. Molina is just plain slow as hell. But based on this stat he had 1 others below him. Wouldn’t you hate to be those 11. Some of the ones below him are obvious, some not so much.
For example Melvin Mora rated as the worst baserunner last season. Ranking lower than Jorge.
trs86
1/12/2010-2:58pm at 2:58 pm (UTC -4)
This stat is at least intriguing. Just looking Bay’s score is much higher than you would expect.
trs86
1/12/2010-2:59pm at 2:59 pm (UTC -4)
4th out of all qualified LF the last 2 years.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-3:18pm at 3:18 pm (UTC -4)
how the fangraphs Spd score is calculated:
Stole Base Percentage = (((SB + 3)/(SB + CS + 7)) – .4) x 20
Frequency of Attempts = Square root of ((SB + CS)/(1B + BB)) / .07
Percentage of Triples = 3B/(AB-HR-SO) and then put on a scale based on this chart:
.02239 = 10
Runs Scored Percentage = (((R – HR)/(H + BB – HR)) – .1) / .04
Then anything one of the components that is below 0 you make 0, anything about 10 you make 10. Then take the mean of the 4 components.
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-3:19pm at 3:19 pm (UTC -4)
I’m curious to see where this is all going. In baseball straight speed is not always critical. Angel Pagan is a prime example. He can’t steal bases, can’t buntand can’t run bases but he can run like the wind.
trs86
1/12/2010-3:23pm at 3:23 pm (UTC -4)
For example range does not tell us how good a fielder is but it can tell us how well he gets to a ball.
It really does not have a motive. I am curious compared to other runners how much slower is one guy than another?
wannybackstra
1/12/2010-3:34pm at 3:34 pm (UTC -4)
Well, not exactly. Range does tell us how good a fielder is to the extent that getting to a ball is, well, an integral part of fielding.
Straight clock speed means a guy runs fast. It does not mean he steals bases well, hits well, fields well or even runs bases well. S
traight clock speed is a good weapon for a guy who does the above things well (i.e. Jose Reyes) but is by no means a predictor of any. See Willy Taveras.
trs86
1/12/2010-3:38pm at 3:38 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know if I want to get into this debate. To me a players range in the OF is directly tied to their ability the same way a player’s speed running the bases is also directly tied to their baserunning ability. Obviously if a guy gets to every ball but has no idea what to do with it then he is not a good fielder. If a baserunner is fast but does not know what the hell he is doing then he is not a good baserunner. Speed in measuring OF ability could also be good. Is a guy or his coaches good at positioning thus increasing his range or is it because the guy can flat out fly?
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-3:24pm at 3:24 pm (UTC -4)
Problem with the wind is like Pagan it has no consciousness of where it’s going.
CaseStreet
1/12/2010-3:40pm at 3:40 pm (UTC -4)
speaking of wind, I just broke it
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-3:56pm at 3:56 pm (UTC -4)
Was it a Mighty Wind?
trs86
1/12/2010-3:47pm at 3:47 pm (UTC -4)
But lets use Fangraphs and BP to look at Pagan last season in terms of baserunning.
Fangraphs:Has Pagan ranked at 7.1 which is on a 10 point scale. Sullivan led the team with 7.2 and our catchers were the worst.
BP: Pagan ranked out at .2 with our best baserunner being Wright at 5.2 and our worst at Reed at -4.2.
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-3:55pm at 3:55 pm (UTC -4)
Please don’t throw raw vegetables at me but just based on “my eyes” the best baserunner I saw on the Mets last year was Murphy. I felt specifically in the context of advancing from 1st to 3rd on hits, and going partially between bases on fly balls which would likely be outs properly that he did very well.
But I will admit that’s a subjective and biased view of it, influenced by Keith Hernandez’ commentary.
trs86
1/12/2010-3:56pm at 3:56 pm (UTC -4)
True, didn’t he also have a few Pagan like moments that he was raked over tremendously for?
trs86
1/12/2010-3:58pm at 3:58 pm (UTC -4)
Murphy was at +4 on fangraphs but hey, so was Sheffield.
According to BP he was 2nd with a 1.8 but Wright beat him out 5.2 to 1.8.
GravediggerHebner
1/12/2010-4:05pm at 4:05 pm (UTC -4)
I can’t either recall or deny that Murphy may have had such moments.
My recollection, which of course is faulty, of bad baserunning from 2009 is dominated by Pagan, with a sprinkling of Church and Beltran. Murphy didn’t make my “mental lowlight film” of baserunning.