With the dust settling from the Roy Halladay acquisition and the recent re-signing of Josh Johnson, I think it’s a good time to take a step back and measure up the arms in our division….especially with the Mets still in the hunt for another. I think we can safely say by looking at this list that after the top 4 or 5, there is an enormous drop off in talent.   The list not only takes into account past performance, but also potential for next season. The question is: Would Joel Pineiro have cracked the top 10? Would Sheets? Let me know your thoughts:
1. Roy Halladay
Met fans aren’t going to like these ranks from the very start. We are used to seeing a different name here when discussing #1, and I hate to admit it, it’s not Johan anymore. When you take into consideration Halladay has played in Toronto his whole career in arguably the most competitive division in sports lately, not just baseball, his stats jump off the page even more. Halladay has won 20 games twice, has a Cy Young Award under his belt and a career 148-76 record…on the Blue Jays. He has OWNED the Yanks and Sox throughout his career. Now he’s moving to the NL where he won’t have to deal with a DH and has a lineup behind him that can score in a hurry.  And THIS is the #1 reason I am putting him up here before Santana. When it comes down to it Johan matches Halladay stat for stat, but if I am a betting man I would put my money on Halladay to have the better year based on the guys around him.
2. Johan Santana
 A career 3.13 ERA, 2 Cy Youngs, and a 122-60 career record. We’ve been over his stats before this isn’t news: he’s awesome. But, coming off minor elbow surgery and plenty of questions about the rest of the bunch land him at #2 instead of at the top spot. Prove me wrong Johan…how bout a nice fat Cy Young this year?Â
3. Josh Johnson
The day I read that this guy re-signed with the Marlins for another 4 years I was not a happy camper. Johnson is just filthy on the mound. Standing 6’7″, the 25 year old started his career a ridiculous 34-16 with a 3.40 ERA…and he’s only going to get better. I’ve watched this guy go pitch for pitch with Johan and he’s got some unreal stuff. If he can stay healthy he will be a serious problem for the rest of the NL East.
A Problem...
4. Jair Jurrjens
The Netherland native is only 23 and already has 30 wins. Last year Jurrjens was 14-10 with a 2.60 ERA. Pitching in a pitchers park with a young lineup behind him that will only get better this year, you have to like this guy’s chances for a big breakout year. The Mets better hope Jurrjens regresses next year because he absolutely dominated them last season going 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA.Â
5. Cole Hamels
What a postseason Hamels had in ’08, but what a miserable season and postseason Hamels had in ’09.  Much to the delight of Met fans, Hamels took a giant step backwards last year going 10-11 with a 4.39 ERA in the regular season while getting bombed out in the post season. Hamels’ struggles flew slightly under the radar however as Cliff Lee was busy pitching gem after gem bailing the team out. Even so, Hamels is still one of the elite pitchers in the division and is capable of throwing a complete game shutout on any given night. Unfortunately I am expecting Hamels to be back in 2008 form next year behind Halladay.Â
6. Tim Hudson
Here is where the drop off in pitchers in the division takes a bit of a nose dive. Hudson pitched only 7 games last year for the Bravos and sat out the rest of the season after Tommy John surgery. Despite the injury, Atlanta rewarded him with a 3 year contract extension, hmmm. Hudson has won 56 games for the Braves though, and has had an ERA in the mid 3′s 3 out of the 4 complete years hes pitched with them. So, for this reason we will put him here as he has proven to be solid in the division.
7. Joe Blanton
This was the toughest pick of the 10 because Blanton is really nothing special. But, at 28 and in the prime of his career, Blanton should have a decent year. He’s coming off a solid 12-8 record with a 4.05 ERA (3.77 at homerun friendly Citizen’s Bank). He’ll probably be in the 3 spot in the Philly rotation meaning he’ll be matched up against mediocrity if it all plays out right and should end up with double digit wins. I am really only giving Blanton the edge here over 8-10 because of his consistency and his team.
8. Ricky Nolasco
After the ’08 season it looked as if the Marlins had an ace in the making as Nolasco posted a 15-6 record and a 3.52 ERA. Not so fast.  He took a big step backwards last year amassing a 5+ ERA while getting demoted to the minors. Nolasco did return however and was able to show flashes of brilliance striking out a franchise record 16 batters in his final start of the season. If the 27 year old can find some consistency next year he can be dangerous. Until then, he’s Oliver Perez a few years ago.Â
9. Derek Lowe
Last season the Mets had high hopes of bringing in Lowe to eat up innings and give the bullpen a few nights off, but he ended up in Atlanta. Maybe we lucked out as Lowe struggled last year going 15-10 with a 4.67 ERA. Strikeouts were down, walks were up. Still, Lowe gets the benefit of the doubt here with his career 3.84 ERA and his impressive postseason record. He’s a gritty pitcher and is still capable of shutting down a lineup.Â
10. J.A Happ
The young Philly lefty won his first 7 decisions in ’09 en route to a 12-4 2.93 ERA season..extremely impressive. But, I have to believe Happ will regress next season in a possible sophomore slump. A .270 BA against might tell us that he had some good fortune last year. Even with a slight step back, I would put Happ above anyone else in the division at #10.Â
Was Happ lucky last year?
Noticably absent on this list…pitchers 2-5 on the NYM staff. Does anyone disagree?
Totals: Phils – 4, Braves – 3, Marlins – 2, Mets – 1, Nats – 0.
24 comments
stickguy
1/21/2010-8:12am at 8:12 am (UTC -4)
Blanton and Lowe? Heck, on the Braves, I put Hansen above Lowe.
You are correct that after the top couple, not an imposing bunch.
ANd with anything passing for a rebound/career/normal/hit potential year, Pelf, Maine and Ollie all are just as good (or better) than at least your guys from 6 on down, and who knows which Hamels shows up this year.
halfmanhalfamazin
1/21/2010-9:20am at 9:20 am (UTC -4)
Reasons why Pelf/maine/Ollie didnt crack my top 10: pelf never really showed much of anything last year and the year before he was just decent…maine off surgery and even so hes average..ollie i dont need to address
trs86
1/21/2010-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
I would not say that 2008 was just decent for Pelfrey. It would have been better than many of those guys on your list.
trs86
1/21/2010-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
Same with a healthy Maine. I take him any day over Blanton if healthy.
trs86
1/21/2010-8:38am at 8:38 am (UTC -4)
Nice to see you back Halfman but no way do I put Blanton in the top 10. Lowe I do expect a rebound. Let me take a stab at this.
Halladay
Johan
Johnson
Those are the easy ones.
JarJar gets to be next
Hamels after an off year but other than ERA his numbers were not all that off.
Hanson I expect him to have a worse year but he can stand too with those numbers.
Then it gets shaky
Happ has put up decent numbers for 2 years now. I have no idea how but I guess he is likely to continue
Hudson: If healthy he slides up the list. Guy was pretty good even last year
Lannon: 206 innings of under 4 ERA for the Nats. That has to be good for something.
Mr. 10: Hmmm, that is a toss up. I would make it a competition with Nolasco, Marquis, Lowe and Pelfrey. Right now If I picked one from that group it’s Nolasco. A strike out pitcher.
trs86
1/21/2010-9:04am at 9:04 am (UTC -4)
So lets see
Braves: 3 maybe 4 Still think their rotation is the best. Don’t have a clue why the traded Vasquez.
Phillies: 3
Marlins: 1 maybe 2
Nats: 1 maybe 2
Mets: 1 maybe 2
halfmanhalfamazin
1/21/2010-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
so it sounds like we agree for the most part. point i wanted to make is that the mets will have 1 guy on this list. should have thought about hanson though even though him and happ are similar
mrose
1/21/2010-9:39am at 9:39 am (UTC -4)
I must disagree that Happ and Hanson are similar. Hanson was 22 last year, and Happ is 26 (not old by any means) but Hanson has HUGE potential and Happ is someone who I feel will eventually be figured out.
CaseStreet
1/21/2010-8:55am at 8:55 am (UTC -4)
Forgot about 20 game winner figgy
prismo
1/21/2010-8:56am at 8:56 am (UTC -4)
HEY! My Mets cap with his autograph will be worth thousands someday. You have no idea how many 12 year-olds I had to shove away to get it.
trs86
1/21/2010-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
I know Omar is working on the AAA team but I still don’t see Figgy winning 20 games. Considering in 7 seasons he has won 13 MLB games. I know you said it in jest but I can’t stand me some Figgy.
metsfan4decades
1/21/2010-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
I more or less agree.
I’ve always liked Nolasco. Not exactly sure what happened to him last year but if he returns to pre ’09 form, for sure he’s in the top 10.
Blanton? Bah…consistent but not really impressed with him. Then again, the fact that he’s in your top 10 might indicate the overall talent level of the rest of the East.
Hamels: I’m just not convinced as most of you are on this kid. Right now, he’s basically a two pitch starter and one of those two pitches was not very good in ’09. Word is they’re going to work with him in ST on another change up type of pitch. If he develops that, I can see him being being a consistent winner. Even the Phillie Nation thinks of him as a prima donna – saying he should have a good year if he doesn’t injury himself getting a pedicure. Have to put in in the top ten either way though.
On that note – Phillies Nation did an in depth analysis a week ago of the Mets, as they stood that day, in regards to the upcoming season. Post is called: The Total WAR Project, Part II: New York Mets. All I can say is ‘Ouch’….
prismo
1/21/2010-9:32am at 9:32 am (UTC -4)
Re: Phillies Nation analysis
“Mark the Mets for 84-78, third place in the East for 2010.”
That’s very possible. I actually have to commend the writer for attempting to be unbiased. I have to see who the Mets end up signing/trading for, but I’m guessing I’ll only be a little more optimistic than the Phillies fan…maybe 86-88 wins.
metsfan4decades
1/21/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I hate to admit it but as it stands right now, I’d have to agree with that….
trs86
1/21/2010-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
Actually 6 games over .500 would be a push right now.
prismo
1/21/2010-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
Seems like he included potential signings – it wasn’t for the team as it stands.
steveo
1/21/2010-9:48am at 9:48 am (UTC -4)
I have to say if we were going to start the season today with our rotationthe way it currently stands, we would be lucky at best to be a 500 team.
trs86
1/21/2010-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. But if Maine and Perez returned to form we could be a 90+. It’s going to take some luck if Omar does not pull someone in.
steveo
1/21/2010-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
Trs I agree that if maine and ollie return to form we could be dominent. With that being said we have to hope for to many guys to return to form including Mr.Santana I know I sound like Mr. Negative but with no Beltran to start the season, Santanas return from a mild injury,Maine telling everone he’s fine,Ollie? And the new headcase Big Pelf, you have to understand my negativity. Too many stars have to allign properly right now.
trs86
1/21/2010-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
Oh I agree Steveo. It’s not negative at all. It’s realistic. If Omar does not improve the rotation it will be luck that gets us there.
fongy2
1/21/2010-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
I actually think yesterday was a very good day for The NY Mets!
We didn’t overpay for a rapidly aging Catcher and an overrated
#4 SP, neither of who wanted to come to NY anyway.
I agree that this team,if healthy looks ALOT like a .500 type
team. HOWEVER, Omar still has money within the budget and hasn’t
moved any of the few prospects in our system.
SO, since we know players are and will always be moved during
the season, we would seem to be the most logical, likely landing
place for one or more of them.
I’d think that if a Haren,Webb,Young or Gonzalez become available
,we’re right in the mix. Meanwhile, we’re not spending money
on role players and/or trading prospects for guys who aren’t
“impact players”.
B/T/W… SIGN BYRNES!!!!!
trs86
1/21/2010-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
.217
I like him but he does not get ALL CAPS.
fongy2
1/21/2010-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
Understood and agreed BUT he’d be playing for
almost nothing with us. That is a very low risk,
high reward gamble, in a position where we’re
gonna need some help for at least a month or two.
My second choice would be Reed Johnson.
GravediggerHebner
1/21/2010-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
I have no strong disagreement with this list except that I would’ve for sure had Tommy Hanson on it, probably at # 6 and would’ve removed one of the “control” pitchers below him, probably Blanton for the not-so-scientific reason that I just find him completely uninspiring, to make room. But for the most part nice work and can’t argue.