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Jan 29

Morning Debate

Omar: “I think it’s fair to say we’d like to reduce the ifs, but if you looked at the free-agent market, a lot of those free agents are ifs”

Discuss.

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175 comments

  1. prismo

    What he says is 100% true…but there are levels of “ifs”, so to speak. Too lazy to go into more detail. :(

    1. trs86

      I agree. I guess you also have to compare talent to those if’s. Sheets HUGE if. Pineiro in my mind huge if. Washburn huge if. Wolf big if. Not as much if’s Garland, and Marquis. Lessen the if, decrease the talent in this FA class. After Lackey that is what you had.

  2. stickguy

    true that there were a lot of ifs out there, but when you already have a bunch, you almost need more to supply depth.

    Did that make sense?

    If you somehow could guarantee your starting 5 would all make 32 starts (and obviously you can’t) then you don’t need much depth. But if you aren’t sure if they can, then you need more bodies (even if ifs) as abck up.

    oh screw it. THey should just have tried to upgrade talent, and not focused on the ifs, as long as the if wasn’t could a guy come back from career threatening surgery.

    Barajas isn’t that much of an if. Neither is Hudson really. So if you can replace a bigger if (santos, Castillo) then you should do it, especially if it doesn’t conflict with your plan to give the core 1 more shot, and keep the minors intact.

    Frankly, I don’t think Castillo is part of the core, nor should he be considered one of the guys to be kept together for a last run.

    Barajas, hudson (or one of the lopez’s), gregg, and 1 more SP. Make those moves, which won’t cost a fortune, or tie up the team LT, and you are working toward the same set of goals, but have a better chance of acheiving them.

    1. CaseStreet

      +1
      Omar continuues to refuse to to add depth to the roster. With so many guys coming off of injuries, to not have depth is beyond belief.

      1. stickguy

        partly adding depth, and partly upgrading the talent (some moves don’t do both).

        Barajas and a SP do both, since you can stash Santos and Neise in AAA, and Neive in the BP.

        Hudson or lopez adds talent (especially on defense!), but doesn’t really do anything for depth if they cut castillo, although if they can get any return, it could add MiL talent, or maybe a pen arm.

        1. prismo

          Wouldn’t it have made more sense NOT to sign Cora, but sign Lopez or Hudson, and keep Castillo as the SS/2B backup?

          1. njstuckintx

            In one of the other topics, someone mentioned an article stating that Tatis is a better 2B than Slappy. I’m curious if that is true, or even having Cora as the starting 2B. Is he better than Slappy?

          2. stickguy

            I think that was based on UZR, so basically Tatis has a lot more range at this point (but then again, I have more range, and I can barely get out of bed in the morning).

            Tatis is fine for an emergency fill in, but I doubt he is to Castillo (or any “ral” 2Bman) level at the finer points, like around the bag, DPs,etc.

            But who knows, maybe he could be like 2006 Valentin.

          3. wannybackstra

            Tatis has played 53 innings at 2B in his career. Whatever his UZR is for those 53 innings is meaningless.

          4. fongy2

            Agreed!

          5. wannybackstra

            Well, I think we agree for different reasons.

          6. fongy2

            What’s that?

          7. wannybackstra

            I’m assuming you discredit UZR entirely whereas I just discredit the sample size in this instance.

            I’d be happy to be wrong in my assumption!

          8. fongy2

            you are.I don’t discredit it……..
            Entirely.

          9. wannybackstra

            Anyway, UZR is intended to reflect more than just a player’s range.

          10. prismo

            Cora’s a better fielder, but a worse hitter.

            Tatis is a better hitter than Castillo, but has played 8 games at 2B in his career (and 5 at SS). A small sample size to take a risk on him.

          11. trs86

            Lets hope we never see Castillo at SS.

          12. prismo

            Let’s hope we never see Cora at SS. (Reyes starts almost every game)

          13. rustyjr

            amen !! – lets hope cora is released and we can bring back jose oquendo – he still has better range lol

          14. stickguy

            I wanted Lopez to fill the COra role, but the Mets seem to be fond of cora. If they like him that much for his bench skills, they should just dump Jerry and let him manage.

            In any case, I don’t think they see Castillo as a viable option for the bench, otherwise, you just might have seen them get Hudson.

            From the reports, bringing in a new 2B depended on moving Cstillo 1st, so that certainly says they don’t wnat him on the bench.

            I say screw it, get the better guy, and deal with Castillo later, but I am not in charge.

      2. trs86

        How do you convince guys better than Tatis, Cora, Blanco, Pagan, etc to come here and be a backup?

        1. njstuckintx

          Dollar Dollar Bill Ya’ll.

          Then again, Molina and others taking less money to go else where… What a conundrum.

        2. CaseStreet

          Who’s talking about backup?
          I’m saying our question marks should be backups.
          Santos, Murphy, Nieve should be backups.
          Castillo and Frenchy aren’t locks for anything. If there was a way to improve those positions, we should have done so.

          1. stickguy

            agreed. I said the same thing up above somewhere. Can’t see though at this point bringing in an obvious starter for 1B (please, no delgado!), but let the guys in camp compete for the job. If Carter shows an OK glove and a huge bat, why not let him win the spot?

          2. trs86

            I am fine with that. That’s much different than say signing Damon because he is better offensively than Frenchy and then making Frenchy a backup.

          3. trs86

            I guess but then again, why not give a guy like Murphy a chance over LaRoche? Why not give a kid like Santos a chance over Brajas? Why would we be out spending money on a replacement for Frenchy? He is not a lock for sure but I think those 3 deserve a chance, especially Francouer.

          4. rustyjr

            i think that if murph can channel his inner rico brogna we should be good to go – if not he will look more like mike marshall !

          5. CaseStreet

            yes, I hope for a good year from Murphy, not so much Santos, but with the past 3 seasons, coming off the worse year in a decade, so many injury concerns, it’s a bit much to rely on guys learning to play in the ML or when there are more reliable guys out there.
            Why risk on giving them “a chance”? I’d be more confident if we weren’t taking so many chances.

          6. trs86

            Murphy has a full season and half of another one under his belt now. Santos has had enough experience to carry a weak catching market.

            Obviously we would all be more comfortable if they were not taking so many chances.

            However, I think the Mets see it as giving these guys a chance to prove themselves and believe they have earned that chance. WE may disagree but I can still see the logic.

    2. trs86

      I understand that logic and might even go for that myself.

      I think Omar and the Mets however feel that Johan, Niese, Nieve, Maine, Pelfrey, Perez, Gee, Misch and Figgy has depth. They are indeed still looking at guys like Smoltz, Looper, Lowry, etc to add more to that depth but I think they want to give the young guys a shot. You may disagree but in some ways you also have to commend him for developing our players and giving them a shot. Sure we could have gotten Pineiro by overpaying him but then a guy like Niese or Nieve might not get a chance. It is more risky I guess but it’s also exciting to see the potential of these guys.

      1. Kingman 26

        This is PRECISELY what I was trying to say last night.

        Omar, amidst his faults, should be commended for not overpaying for Wolf/Pineiro/Marquis/Garland, and probably even Sheets.

        The young guys get one more chance, and to me, it is far more exciting to see if Pelf and Maine and Ollie can again be 12–15 game winners and evolve than to see crappy old retread vets.

        1. stickguy

          plus, it leaves the next GM very little dead wood to deal with (contract wise) if it doesn’t work!

          1. Kingman 26

            I actually honestly believe at this moment that this IS part of the plan.

            Who the hell wants to be saddled with Pineiro or Marquis for 3 years?

            If our starters bomb, we now have lots of dough and prospects to acquire GOOD pitchers for a potential rebuild, and we are not saddled with overpaid mediocre ones.

          2. CaseStreet

            how would one year deals hamper next year?

            Garland got $4.7M this year w/ a $6.75M mutual option for next year.
            LaRoche got $4.5M this year.
            Barajas and any 2B FA likely won’t get more than one year.

          3. wannybackstra

            I would also wonder why we haven’t traded for a good pitcher already if that is the case. I recall Roy Halladay being traded to our rivals.

          4. fongy2

            Thank you Wanny,
            Omar made it sound
            like the only way he could have improved the team
            was thru FA.

          5. trs86

            I have no idea who is actually available? Besides Halladay that could have very well forced his way into Philly same way Johan did here.

            I know the answer is the GM should just get it done. To an extent that is correct but I have a hard time ripping him for things I don’t know exist. I know Wanny will call me out for something that I have done in the past that does that. However, in this case I can’t say “Omar should have traded for ….” because I don’t have a clue who…. is.”

          6. rustyjr

            very true – we don’t know if arroyo is available – but edwin jackson was – and i dont think the tigers got alot for him

          7. fongy2

            Have to disagree with you there Rusty,
            The Tigers may well have won that
            deal.
            The 3 guys they got are
            all big time prospects who
            will likely make their team this season.

          8. rustyjr

            i stand corrected then fong

          9. trs86

            Think about Edwin Jackson’s history before we say we want to give up guys like Mejia, Holt or Niese for him.

          10. trs86

            It’s not that they hamper next year. I think their thoughts are that Niese and or Nieve along with Maine and Perez are just as capable of producing similar results as Garland and would like to give them a chance they believe they earned. I might not agree with it but I completely understand it.

          11. rustyjr

            but trs do you believe the reports that crawford wants to be a yankee, mauer will be re-signed and webb , lee etc might be retained before the off season ends? where do we go if next off season is a barren free agent wasteland?

          12. trs86

            Same place you go this year. You trust your organization. Next year’s FA class still has more depth than this one even if those guys get signed. Not only that, half of the guys this year will be there again.

          13. fongy2

            Besides,Omar
            likely won’t be here to
            sign anyone
            next yr.

          14. DNDJohan aka kistics

            But what reduces more IFs? Having Garland in your rotation or Niese/Nieve in your rotation along with Maine and Ollie?

          15. trs86

            Completely agree.

            However, I am looking at it from the Mets perspective saying

            “We believe in Niese and Nieve and think they should get a shot”

          16. DNDJohan aka kistics

            I understand that you are looking from the Mets perspective. But I’m just really fed up with their stupid logic that doesn’t even make sense.

            All I see is excuses trying to justify what they have failed to do.

          17. trs86

            Again, we can disagree but in my opinion it does make sense and is not stupid.

            It’s just not what we would do.

      2. CaseStreet

        “The young guys get one more chance, and to me, it is far more exciting to see if Pelf and Maine and Ollie can again be 12–15 game winners and evolve than to see crappy old retread vets.”

        How would bringing in a SP not give M.O.P. the opportunity to be 12-15 game winners? If anything it’d increase their chances.

        Yes, Niese, Nieve, Gee, Misch and Figgy can be considered depth. And if I knew that they’d only be depth, I’d be happy. However, as of now, we’re considering one of those guys for the rotation.

        The times that I’ve mentioned that Figgy could give us similar production to Marquis, I was laughed at because Figgy is a career minor leaguer and unproven in the ML. So please tell me why we are NOW okay with one of these guys starting in the rotation.

        1. wannybackstra

          Easy with the use of “we” on that last point.

        2. Kingman 26

          Well, I agree with TRS but my agreement stops before the names Misch and Figgy. Niese, Nieve, and Gee are all young enough to not have the clear negative expectations of Figgy and Misch.

          We have been through it before and we can respectfully agree to disagree, but Figgy just is not ever going to be a reliable MLB starter.

          Again, can anyone cite even ONE example of a guy with a career like his, at his age, who became a reliable rotation member? Even one example?

          1. rustyjr

            Gee made a great impression last spring training – he got hurt – but i think he should be allowed to vie for the 5th spot in te rotation – they said he is a rick reed/ greg maddux type – which is not a bad thing !

          2. CaseStreet

            my point wasn’t to say Figgy should be the 5th starter, it was the exact opposite. With M.O.P. each having their own issues, career minor leaguers in Figgy and Misch, and unproven young arms like Niese and Nieve, adding a reliable starter with ML experience would add depth and reduce the IF in the rotation.

            If we could rely on M.O.P. then yes, Niese or Nieve for the 5th would be a good gamble, but right now we can’t rely on them and needed someone to push them down the list.

          3. fongy2

            Should be an open comp, none
            of these guys have earned anything yet.

          4. trs86

            Agreed with that. I would think that Nieve has a leg up however.

          5. fongy2

            And a hamstring
            down???

          6. trs86

            Yeah I thought of that too.

            Only thing is Fongy, only the Mets and Nieve know if he is fully recovered.

            They could just say, “We don’t want to chance it. To AAA you go” Although we see that, maybe the Mets see how hard he has worked to get back and want to give him a chance they think he earned.

          7. fongy2

            Understood.
            I think if
            any of these guys are lights out,
            they’d get the job.
            I’ll tell ya with Nieve,
            he looks like
            a one pitch guy though.
            Maybe he breaks through as a RP?

          8. trs86

            I think the knock on him was actually that he was a 2 pitch guy. However, 2 pitch guys have been successful before.

          9. fongy2

            Okay.
            I do remember
            the game which he got hurt though,
            he was pitching great but fastball after fastball.

        3. trs86

          I never want to see Figgy as a full-time starter. Gee, Misch and Figgy are depth at this point and that’s it. However, I do feel that Niese and Nieve have shown flashes. Perhaps the Mets feel that they are ready?

          1. rustyjr

            niese imo will be a good mlb pitcher – he needs to heal and spend 1 more year in aaa

          2. trs86

            I am not sure he needs another year in AAA. Kid’s got 551 innings in the minors.

          3. trs86

            4 seasons.

          4. rustyjr

            but you cant put him on the mlb roster right now either – extended spring training perhaps?

          5. trs86

            If he comes into ST and wins the #5 spot or even long relief spot, why not?

          6. rustyjr

            he hasnt thrown off a mound yet – i doubt he will be ready until may the earliest

      3. DNDJohan aka kistics

        The part I don’t get is if you are looking to reduce IFs… WHY THE HECK ARE YOU INTERESTED IN SMOLTZ????

        And don’t the young prospects have more IFs than anyone else? Don’t you think that having guys like Garland or Marquis would reduce the number of IFs than to trying out Niese or Nieve?

        Overpaying for them?? Garland got $5.5M and Marquis got $7.5 per year. That’s $1M over what you pay for Ollie. And Ollie is the biggest IF in your rotation.

        Also, when you have guys like Wolf ($10M), Sheets ($10M+), Penny ($7.5M)… how can you say that Garland or Marquis are overpaid? If the Mets gave 2/14 to Marquis, he would’ve came to the Mets. I don’t think that’s overpaying at all.

        1. Kingman 26

          Marquis sux. Look at his career.

          Why do you think he sat on the bench in the postseason last year? Because the Rockies were throwing Seaver and Koufax? No, because Marquis stinks. One good half year is all he had.

          1. rustyjr

            marquis stinks i agree but nieve is unproven and ollie is erratic at best

          2. DNDJohan aka kistics

            I agree. My point is not that Marquis is good or bad. My point is that, Marquis will actually give you average performance AND start 30 games a season. That to me is worth whatever he got paid relative to what other pitchers got.

            Omar’s statement was to reduce IFs and having Niese, Nieve, Ollie, Maine, etc in your rotation will results in a lot more IFs than getting guys like Marquis or Garland.

          3. trs86

            True but I again think the Mets feel like their guys deserve the chance and are ready for the opprotunity.

            I think they look at as like my idea of Overbay for Murphy. Yes Overbay would be better this upcoming year because he is much more of a sure thing. However, Murphy has worked hard and very well could produce the same numbers for a much cheaper price.

          4. CaseStreet

            Pedro pitched throughout the post season. Does that mean he’s great and we should lock him up for the #2 spot?

            Marquis may suck, but we don’t even know what to expect from Nieve who only threw 78 innings last year and now we expect him to go out and throw 200.

          5. trs86

            I am not sure we expect Nieve to throw 200 innings. I think we think he has talent and want to give him the chance along with Niese and most likely another “diamond in the rough” to earn that spot in the rotation.

        2. trs86

          It’s not that they don’t reduce question marks. I think the Mets look at it as these guys are ready and can produce. Why continue to push Niese to the minors or Nieve to the minors when they feel they are ready.

          We may disagree but if the Mets indeed are thinking this way, I actually enjoy the break from plug every hole with a career average to below average guy.

          1. DNDJohan aka kistics

            But the whole point of this argument is that Omar wants to reduce IFs. You mean to tell me that Niese/Nieve has less IFs than Garland/Marquis?

            You mean to tell me that Santos and 3,000 backup catchers will reduce IFs than signing Molina?

          2. rustyjr

            face it there isno good answer to this arguement

          3. trs86

            True, Garland and Marquis along with Molina are much more sure things but we also know they are not very good either.

            Again, I think the METS, not me…, feel that their players have developed and are capable of producing and deserve a chance to earn a spot instead of being pushed down for a career average player.

  3. njstuckintx

    I think it is more a matter of this: are the Mets “if’s” greater or smaller than the free agent “if’s”.

    I’ve high hopes for Niese, but he is a hugh if. Any rookie is. Getting an “if” starting pitcher of the remaining ones should happen, just to take the pressure off of Niese, allow him to develope a little more.

    1. stickguy

      well, for the most part, they are at least cheaper, especially when you are stuck with the contract even if you bring in a replacement.

  4. fongy2

    Among my rants yesterday, I noted the need for add’l bench
    hitters. I’m thinking Kevin Millar tiday.
    That might be a guy who ends up with no options except
    taking a Minor League league deal and an invite to ST.

    1. stickguy

      I am qall for Mil ST invites, and more competition for spots in the spring.

      Let a guy like Carter try and win the 1B job outright. Heck, if you have an OF that kicks booty, why not give him Frnechy’s job? Wouldn’t kill him to have to start on the bench!

      Can’t see Millar though, with Tatis locked in. I think that last bench spot is going to a guy that can play OF.

      1. trs86

        I can’t see the Mets taking Frenchy out of the lineup because of ST. I think he gets until the ASB either way. Unless Fmart really produces in AAA.

        1. rustyjr

          agreed – they cant build up frenchy by saying he is a gritty player just to demote him later on

    2. wannybackstra

      I don’t really see a role for him in the NL much less on a team with Fernando Tatis. A guy like that really impairs an already impaired manager’s ability to maneuver his roster.

      1. fongy2

        Again, with Jerry having to go easy w/Johan,
        Maine & Perez not goin’ deep into gms,even if
        all is well(b/c of their high P count) and
        who knows what out of #5SP, there are gonna be
        ALOT of nights when Jerry is gonna need a PH
        in the 5th,6th or 7th…Let alone the 8th or 9th.
        I think there’s a good chance He’ll be needing
        2, 3 or 4 PHers almost every night.

        When he looks over, he’ll see Cora,Tatis, Matthews
        and/or Pagan.
        Not very good!

        1. rustyjr

          fongy look at my column – i have the perfect player

          1. fongy2

            Chris Carter?
            I’ll be rooting for him
            but I was thinking more a proven Vet w/ some power and at least a little PHing experience.

          2. rustyjr

            hey he is 28 – spent 5 years in the minors – give him the shot – he has to be better than tatis in a clutch situation – why trade for him then?

          3. fongy2

            I don’t diagree.
            I hope he tears it
            up in S.T..
            But then again, I
            remember Darren Reed
            in the early 90s having one of the best S.T. I ever
            saw/heard/read and
            once the bell rung
            to start things for
            real, he went back
            to being a AAAA player.

          4. rustyjr

            then why did we trade wagner for him? salary dump?

          5. fongy2

            I believe so.

          6. trs86

            Fongy, that is Tatis.

          7. fongy2

            I know, mean Tatis
            PLUS another veteran
            Bat off the Bench.
            At least for the first month or two
            until beltran gets
            back. And while in April, SPs aren’t pushed much for
            innings.

          8. trs86

            True, I think the guy they will use for short term will be a guy they can send back down.

            I see
            Blanco
            Cora
            Tatis
            GMJR
            Carter
            That covers all the positions with at least a body.

          9. trs86

            With a decent LH/RH split which I think is important for a bench.

  5. DNDJohan aka kistics

    Hey Omar!!

    ‘IF’ YOU!

    1. CaseStreet

      LOL

      1. rustyjr

        wow you didn’t get moderated?!> oh yesh this isn’t ” from what i can gathers ” blog lol

    2. prismo

      hahahaha!

      1. rustyjr

        danke shane prismo – now get this cold weather out of here !!!

  6. joed1

    With regard to Omar’s “If’s Defense”, it certainly makes for a sypathetic argument now, but it wasn’t so at the start of the off season.

    Wolf or Lackey would have been solid additions and certain upgrades. Marquis and Garland are consistently above average and probable upgrades.

    He went out of his way to acquire huge “ifs” by re-signing Cora and Tatis, getting Matthews, Igarashi and Escobar. He increased our risk instead of reducing it wherever he could.

    We had a huge discussion in our chat last night about how Andruw Jones got 500K as opposed to Matthews for 2MM. Or how Ronnie Belliard at 800k would have been more help than Cora 2MM. Both of those players would have been better defensive and offensive bench players, and the 3.3 million savings could have been used to increase offer to Sheets or upgrade at catcher. Regarding the money we paid Tatis, wouldn’t Russell Branyan be a better addition and a great veteran presence, as well as a huge power bat that would own the DH spot in Inter League play and relieve Murphy during key matchups? Imagine the bases loaded and having Castillo leaving the on deck circle in the 8th inning and Branyan coming out swinging a bat, how intimidating would that have been? Then Belliard takes over on defense to ice the game in the last inning.

    1. rustyjr

      joed1 doesnt that kinda make him look more like a don quioxtie type of person? – extremely deluded and out of touch with the problem at hand?

      1. rustyjr

        i agree with your post 100%

        1. fongy2

          2nd!

        2. DNDJohan aka kistics

          you agree 100% with your own post?

          1. njstuckintx

            I thought the same thing upon first glance. Quite the 2nd person confidence! :)

    2. CaseStreet

      very good points JoeD. The guys you mention are recent starters who now have to take backup jobs, while our guys have been bench players for awhile because they are not as good.

    3. Kingman 26

      Marquis is not consistently anything but very, very mediocre.

      Not sure where people are getting these opinions on him.

      There is a reason he sat during the postseason and wound up signing where he did.

      Because he is pretty bad.

      He has never finished among the leaders in ANY positive stat.

      I wish we had gotten Halladay or Lackey, but avoiding the rest of these mediocre guys was a potential blessing.

      1. rustyjr

        Kong i agree but answer me this – does what the wilpons say after the season ended – then the reality of the little that they did anger you?

        1. Kingman 26

          For me, it is too early to tell.

          If they do nothing else, and do nothing during the season and wind up with a lower payroll in 2010 than 2009, I will be VERY annoyed.

          But I cannot get on them for not overpaying for Pineiro, Marquis, and the like.

          I really think that they are going to make moves and spend money during the season after seeing how the injured players do and after they see how the three huge question marks of Ollie, Maine, and Pelf do.

          1. rustyjr

            all i ask is for honesty – not a song and dance – you make promises -then u have to expect blowback when you don’t follow through

          2. DNDJohan aka kistics

            Mid-season acquisition is much much harder than signing a FA. AND it’ll cost you prospects which I know the Mets are very reluctant to do. So Omar and Co. saying that there’s always the possibility of making trades during the season can only be viewed as another excuse.

          3. rustyjr

            plus they have a very shaky history at making mid season deals

          4. CaseStreet

            pie in the sky

          5. fongy2

            Yummmm….Pie…

          6. rustyjr

            Alan Parsons project? – love that song !!

          7. fongy2

            Thats good
            But now every time
            I hear
            The Alan Parsons Project,
            I think of Dr.Evil.

          8. rustyjr

            lol – i am the pie in the sky looking at you
            - mo vaughns favorite song

        2. trs86

          They said what, that they plan to upgrade? So what happens if those upgrades they don’t feel are good for their overall team or situation? Sure they wanted Molina, should they have given him the 2nd year? Sure they wanted Lackey but they did not want to go what may have had to be 6 years to get him away from Boston.

          I take things an owner or gm says with a grain of salt. They have much more to worry about than just this season.

          1. rustyjr

            but you back yourself into a corner – hence making you look foolish – they should just say they will do their best to field a good team and thats it – don’t promise the world – then not come through – is all im saying

          2. trs86

            I don’t think they implied they were going to go out and with reckless abandon fill those spots with slightly better players.

          3. rustyjr

            i never said that – but they said they were going to be agressive – i really havent seen any agressiveness yet – i like the way they handled bay and molina – lackey baffles me – and wouldn’t you rather sign a thome than a tatis for first base? – not that i think thome is the answer but he still has some pop left in that bat

          4. trs86

            Thome can’t even play 1B anymore much less multiple positions like Tatis.

            Also, I think they really wanted Lackey as I have said a few times.

            It’s either he did not want to be a Met OR the Mets just could not give him the contract he wanted. Perhaps to get him to choose Mets over Sox it would have taken more money and an extra year. That would have been something like 6/100 for a guy that was injured to start the last 2 seasons.

    4. Kingman 26

      And Russell Branyan a GREAT veteran presence? Based on what?

      Eight teams in eight years and a total inability to do anything but hit HR? He struck out 150 times in 500 PA last year.

      Sorry Joe, but I disagree.

      I would rather give our young players one more chance to succeed, and whether they do or they do not, I am glad our team was not filled with clear mediocrity like Marquis, Branyan, Belliard, and the like, so-so players who bounce around the league for a very good reason.

      1. rustyjr

        hey kong read my infamy column today – i make a case for chris carter

      2. trs86

        Agreed. Branyan to me offers no more value than Carter and I have not even see Carter play.

      3. joed1

        I’m sure that it would be hard to get anyone to agree on all the individual potential players I mentioned, but look at the totality of what could have been as compared to the reality of what is.

        The Reality:
        Santana
        Maine
        Pelfrey
        Perez
        Figgy/Nieve/Niese

        What If:
        Santana
        Wolf
        Maine
        Pelfrey
        Marquis

        The Reality:
        Blanco
        Tatis
        Cora
        Matthews
        Carter(maybe)

        What If:
        Blanco
        Branyan
        Belliard
        A. Jones
        C. Carter(maybe)

        In totality, which bench and rotation is better and poses the less risk(Ifs)?

        1. rustyjr

          obviously the what if’s imo

        2. trs86

          Obviously your starting lineup has less if’s. It also cost 18-20M more and blocks guys like Nieve and Niese that the Mets feel could be as good or better and deserve a chance.

          Again, it may not be my opinion. I am just trying to approach it from the Mets perspective.

          Now if those names were Lackey or Arroyo I think you have a very good point. Wolf would have been ok but that was not a good contract.

        3. trs86

          As for your bench, I don’t think it’s any better or offers any less risk. Branyan and Jones are as much risk as Tatis and GMJR. As for Belliard, he will get the chance to start in LA.

          1. rustyjr

            true but branyan still has power – gmjr – not so much of a power threat off the bench – thats why im pushing carter

          2. trs86

            GMJR is not here for the spot that Branyan or Carter would be competing for. Branyan does have power but this is his 2nd half line: .193 BA .274 OBP. I think Carter can handle that.

    5. trs86

      Hmmm, some yes to that some no.

      I would not say that Marquis and Garland are consistently above average, they are indeed consistently average. I also don’t think Tatis at this point is an IF nor really are Cora and GMJR. They are just bench players. At this point are there any of those that we don’t know what we are going to get? Maybe GMJR? Igarashi and Escobar are risk but every bullpen including our’s to start last season has if’s. Belliard for Cora makes a lot of sense if he would have came here. For some reason the Mets really value Cora’s intangibles, we can disagree but that is why he gets the money he gets from us and did from Boston. As for Branyan for Tatis? In my opinion he is even more of a question mark. His numbers the second half were terrible and he was injured. Also we will see if he only cost .8M. Branyan is also the same handed as Murphy and is limited where he can play defense. Also, I feel very comfortable with the game on the line and Tatis brought in to face a LH.

  7. wannybackstra

    I get the sense that Omar’s “if” argument is somewhat revisionist after failing to bring in guys like Pineiro or Molina.

    Or perhaps he genuinely set a dollar limit on the “if” guys that he would not exceed.

    1. rustyjr

      true wanny – especially after the dog & pony show they put on for fatcesa !

      1. Kingman 26

        But that was meaningless Rusty—that was the owner’s son and an employee.

        Freddy wasn’t there, and he calls the shots.

        1. rustyjr

          kong from my understanding – jeffy boy is at the helm of the mets – fred is a silent partner these days

        2. DNDJohan aka kistics

          Kingman… I like you and you bring very valid points many many times in here. But I don’t understand why you are defending what the Mets FO did.

          Mets are a very PR driven team. But they have been making arguably the worst PR moves past year or so… This instance is the same thing. Mets FO publicly came out (regardless of who’s in charge) and said they will look under every rock and try to fill in the holes and make this team a Championship team. Did they have 3 holes in the backup catcher’s position?

          What about the biggest gaping hole what is most obvious to everyone except for the Mets FO? They need SPs. A true #2 behind Johan and that was Lackey or even Sheets (if healthy). And who’s going to fill that hole? Smoltz?

          1. Kingman 26

            Thanks DND and I feel the same about you.

            I think I am not trying to defend as much as understand, and maybe try to see what they may be thinking—assuming they ARE thinking and that they have a plan.

            I posted in the fall of 2008 how much I thought Sabathia would make us a great team, and I blabbed about wanting Halladay, then Lackey, incessantly.

            But, I just do not think that any of the rest of the starters we did not get is worth losing sleep over.

            If Sheets comes out and is great, than he would be the one who got away. But still, 10 mil for a perennially injured guy who did not pitch last year, when we are trying to REDUCE ifs?

            I say give Pelf, Ollie, and Maine one last chance, and if they don’t do it, go out and get someone better than Pineiro, marquis, Wolf, etc, and/or trade prospects for AGonz or something like that.

            Should the season start off poorly and we are 25–35 come June 1, then I look for Jerry to be canned and the above moves to be made.

            If we start off poorly and this does not happen, yeah, I sure will loudly admit how wrong I was.

          2. trs86

            Agreed.

            If we don’t win this season then hold to your seat it’s going to get bumpy.

            I really wanted the Mets to go out and overpay for Tex even when we had Delgado but again I am not sure denying a chance for our guys is worth putting a career average guy in their spot.

          3. trs86

            I think they targeted Lackey but then felt that the FA market was not worth overpaying for after that. I just don’t think Lackey had a desire to play for the Mets nor did the Mets want to go what may have been 6 years to get him. After that are we really jumping on them for not out bidding teams for Molina and Pineiro?

    2. trs86

      I believe your 2nd part to the fullest.

      I think all of these guys from Lackey to Bay to Molina they set a figure that they were willing to pay and if it went way over they backed off. It looks like they were determined not to have a bad contract this year. I can understand that.

      I really believe and have said this before. If they don’t make the post-season this year all hell we break loose and many changes in the FO, and roster will take place. The last thing you want if that is going to happen is to be saddled with Pineiro for 3 years or Molina for multiple years.

      1. rustyjr

        i dont want to see that happen – but if it does so be it and clean house

  8. rustyjr

    if – if’s & buts were candy & nuts – yadda yadda yadda !

    1. fongy2

      Vince says: “you’ll love my nuts”.

      1. rustyjr

        that hooker didn’t !

        1. fongy2

          Because I think He/She had larger one!?

          1. rustyjr

            HA !! IT WAS SOUTH BEACH !!!

  9. fongy2

    So, it looks like our opening day line-up will be:
    Reyes
    Pagan
    Wright
    Bay
    Frenchy
    Murphy
    Santos
    Castillo….???

    And in May or so when Bel-tron returns:
    Reyes
    Murphy
    Wright
    Bay
    Belran
    Frenchy
    Santos
    Castillo…???

    1. GravediggerHebner

      Your guess is as good as mine. I’m a fan of, but don’t think they will actually enact Jose Reyes 3rd. Although they did tease us with that concept a bit last spring. To me with Beltran out it makes some sense.

      Castillo
      Pagan
      Reyes
      Bay
      Wright
      Murphy
      Frenchy
      Thole

      Then when Beltran comes back

      Castillo
      Reyes
      Wright
      Beltran
      Bay
      Murphy
      Frenchy
      Thole

      Taking advantage of Castillo’s one skill his OBP and Reyes’ XBH potential, while still being able to use his speed. And yes, based on Omar’s interview yesterday I now believe Thole will make the club unless he falls on his face in ST. I bat him 8th in the classic recent Met tradition of easing rookies into the linuep. Also in both scenarios avoiding putting Wright 4th so as not to put the added “I bat cleanup” pressure on him as he tries to rediscover his power.

      In no way do I think “these are the two true lineups” more just thinking out loud.

      1. trs86

        Agreed.

        My lineups are very similar and I have been pushing them even before Beltran was out

        Castillo, Pagan, Reyes, Wright, Bay, Murphy, Frenchy, Santos

        I think you bat Wright ahead of Bay because I am not sure Bay will need the protection as much and it keeps the speed at the top.

        With Beltran, I like your lineup.

        1. fongy2

          Again, In that line-up Castillo and Pagan get many more PAs than Wright,Bay,Murp and
          Frenchy, always in late game situations.

          1. trs86

            That’s good because according to stats Castillo has been our most clutch hitter the last 2 years.

            Running away…..

      2. fongy2

        Okay. I’m more in thought with Tony LaRussa.
        I want our best hitters getting most of the PAs.
        I hate the idea of Castillo getting 50 more PAs
        ,all of them in the 8th,9th or extra-inns than
        Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Frenchy and even
        Murphy. Just hate it.

        I can understand, maybe while Beltrans out
        BUT otherwise, stick him in the 8 hole and
        let him get on base, Pitcher move him over
        and Reyes can be both an RBI guy and still
        a disruptive threat on the bases with the
        line-up then turned over.

        1. trs86

          True, but the idea is also for your highest OBP guys to get the most AB’s because they in turn will get on base the most. Castillo is a high OBP guy.

          1. fongy2

            Problem is though that b/c very
            few of his hits travel more than
            200′, he’s not gonna drive in
            anyone on i/f/o him.

          2. wannybackstra

            The difference in their OBPs the last three years is 13 points. That’s not exactly enough to overcome the fact that Reyes is the much more complete offensive player, including power and speed.

            If I have to choose one guy to have the most plate appearances from the two it is Reyes in a heartbeat.

            Remember also that Reyes’ extra base ability had resulted in him having as many as 81 RBI from the leadoff spot.

          3. fongy2

            Agreed. Good post Wanny.

            The good…and/or bad thing
            is THAT with Castillo’s lower body, we’ll likely
            see ALOT of Alex Cora so
            this should all be a mute point anyway.

          4. stickguy

            why turn the sound off Fongy?

            (Mute, get it?)

            A much better idea. Instead of trying to figure out where to hide Luis in the lineup, how about they get a real 2B that can actually hit?

          5. trs86

            Yeah I agree with that part but I am not sure that justifies Castillo in the 8 spot over Santos?

      3. wannybackstra

        I think it makes sense initially to have Reyes bat 2nd or third because I don’t expect he’ll be stealing many bases in colder weather and before his legs are fully tested in the day to day grind.

        After that, I would propose a “wait and see” as to how he performs batting elsewhere and how Castillo does in the leadoff position.

        While Castillo’s on base acumen lends itself well to batting first, I also like Reyes’s pop in the leadoff spot. I just don’t like the idea of Castillo and his paper bat being the guy who gets the most plate appearances (maybe have Pagan bat first?).

        1. fongy2

          Understood but I do like the idea of Murph
          seeing fastballs with Reyes on base i/f/o
          him.

          1. wannybackstra

            Me too.

        2. GravediggerHebner

          I got no prob with Pagan first and Castillo 2nd. My thought in putting them that way was “Castillo walks, Pagan doubles (or in his case, triples) him in. 1-0 Mets, no out, top of the first.”

          But in no way am I absolutely convinced my “logic” is THE logic.

          I am just happy after this crap laden off-season to have reached the “let’s debate lineups” portion of the program.

          1. fongy2

            You’re welcome! :)

  10. Mr North Jersey

    I been reading what you guys been talking about and for better or for worse the Mets have decided to go a certain route and barring a jaw dropping trade before Opening Day I don’t expect to see any major changes to the roster.

    I continue to have a problem with Minaya or the puppeteers that pull his strings the Wilpons. When he was asked if he felt they inproved in the areas of pitching speed and defense and then said yes and as an example used having Bay in LF rather than Murphy is an improvement. -STOP RIGHT THERE

    This is the same GM that before last season all he can do was sing the praises of Murphy and how well he looked in LF in 2008 now admits it was a mistake and signs Bay but has Murphy at 1st and is telling us Murphy will get better at 1st? The same way he got better in LF in 2009?
    Be honest no one can say what to expect from Murphy at 1st just because he looked or showed flashes of being good at 1st in 2009 doesn’t mean it will translate to getting better in 2010. Did we not just go through a similar scenario with him in LF from 2008 to 2009?

    I say this as a fan that thinks Murphy deserves more of a chance at 1st than say Tatis and does not want to see a platoon with Tatis at 1st but let’s be honest Minaya’s credibility in saying he thinks Murphy will get better at 1st is suspect at best.

    He already is singing the praises of Ike Davis as if Murphy’s days are numbered with comments of Davis is going to push their button.

    Then he talks of our starters he says the only free agent he felt was a difference maker was Lackey but agreed with Burkhardt that they just didn’t feel players were worth the money they were asking for. Then he says if you look at the way our starters pitched in “2007 & 2008″ they pitched just as good as what was out there.

    If you are going to look at 2007 and 2008 to determine if you feel that our guys are good and disregard 2009 due to injuries then by that logic Wang should be a must he only won 19 games in 2007 as a Yankee and how do you explain not signing Sheets he only gave up 47 walks and had 158 Strikeouts in 198.1 innings pitched in 2008.

    Point is his criteria for determining how good his pitchers are is by looking at what they did 2 and 3 years back. If that is the case Wang is a must sign in my opinion.

    1. Kingman 26

      Nah, I understand the frustration, but the Wang situation is completely different.

      The guy did not throw hard like Pelf, Ollie and Maine all do, and Wang totally relied on control, which appears to be gone after his injuries.

      Totally different situations.

      And time will tell, but Marquis and Pineiro suck, and the rest of the starters not named Lackey are all clearly not any better than the 2007 Maine and Ollie and 2008 Pelf.

      You could look it up.

      1. Mr North Jersey

        I will respectfully disagree in my opinion control pitchers coming back from surgery are a better risk than power pitchers but hey I am merely using Minaya’s metric of looking at what a pitcher did 2 to 3 years back.

      2. Mr North Jersey

        Who is talking about Marquis and Piniero? This is simply about Wang and Sheets.

        1. Kingman 26

          Gotcha….and I was pro-Sheets all the way, but I can understand not giving him 10 mil when he has not pitched in the last year and is always hurt.

    2. GravediggerHebner

      I have no complaint with what Omar says before you say STOP RIGHT THERE. Even I, who expressed great concern about Bay’s defense during his courtship, believes Bay is an improvement over Murphy in LF. So Omar is not IMO lying, and if he’s admitting a mistake, isn’t that something we would want a GM to do, if not publicly in words at least through his actions? So up to that point in your comment I’m fine with how the Mets (Omar) handled that.

      I think to be fair to the Mets if we’re going to talk about improving something we need to keep it in the context of now as compared to the beginning of 2009. So at the beginning of 2009 the team had Murphy in LF and Delgado at 1B. Neither player is known for nor demonstrating quality defense. Murphy was completely new to his position, and Delgado an aging veteran with decreasing range.

      So those 2009 April starters are now replaced with Bay in LF and Murphy at 1B. I restate I think even with his defense not being what I can safely call “good” Bay is still an improvement over the fish out of water that Murphy was. Now Murphy at 1B I agree that none of us can know what to expect, but I also think he demonstrated in his small sample clearly superior range to Delgado. Can he scoop the low throw like Delgado? As you said, remains to be seen but he’s a young player in his 1st full year at the position so I don’t expect him to regress and I think expecting improvement, however marginal, is reasonable.

      So I don’t think Omar mis-characterized that. Were there superior defensive options available this off season at both LF & 1B? I believe so. If he was truly concentrating on improving the defense IMO he could’ve gone in a couple of other directions. But I still think at those two positions he can say he’s improved the defense and not be a liar.

      I know if I were a GM and I had a hot prospect in my system I’d talk him up too so I’ve got no issue with his talking up Ike Davis.

      As far as the starting pitchers I can see the logic in saying “well my guys were good 2-3 years ago so I’m hoping they rebound to that.” I don’t see it as a logical step that trusting my own questionable pitchers means therefore I must sign everybody else’s questionable pitchers too because otherwise I’m some kind of liar. I don’t follow you here Mr. NJ. And remember, I was very vocal in wanting Sheets. But I didn’t want him because “I trust my guys so I have to trust him too.” I wanted him for the upside potential and because he had demonstrated that he could throw. Wang hasn’t even done that.

      I thought the Mets needed the upside of Sheets. I wanted him, but I can see how maybe the Mets didn’t want to give him $10 mil guaranteed for that. I was disappointed he went elsewhere but I think the injuries to Sheets and Wang are what I would describe as more “long term, serious” injuries than those to the in house pitchers.

      Generally I sympathize with and agree with your outrage, but on these points I’m missing it. Ah well, now I know what TRS feels like when he’s debating you.

      1. stickguy

        can he admit another mistake and make Castillo disappear?

      2. Mr North Jersey

        I agree Grave Bay is an improvement over Murphy in LF of that we are in agreement. It is with the idea that he says Murphy will get better at 1st that I take exception to.

        I am rooting for Murphy but it is hard to swallow hearing Minaya say Murphy will be better at 1st when at this time last year he was saying how he felt Murphy was going to be ok in LF.

        The pitching remark is that the logic of saying we should be ok because if you look at what our starters did on 2007 and 2008 we should expect them to give us that in 2010. That just doesn’t sound right, by that token Wang should be someone he should signwhen and if he is ever able to show that he can pitch off a mound and his injury is healed. I will give him Sheets like Kingman said they probably felt he just cost too much. Whatever 10 million 11 million one potato two potato lol.

        I don’t suggest they have to sign Wang today without him even pitching but I am saying that if Minaya likes to look at what a player did as far back as 2007 as part of his criteria then Chien-Ming Wang should be someone they go after when and if he is ever able to show that he can pitch off a mound and his injury is healed.

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