OK so I admit it. I fell in the trap of the anti-Castillo bias this off-season. I looked at his UZR as the worst in baseball history, OK worst for a 2B last year, and went with the pack. It is not like me at all and has troubled me as I am not a big Gritty McHudson fan. My approach was a simple one. If Hudson could be had for cheap then get him. However, with multiple teams still in the running and him holding out for a contract with incentives up to 9M that is just not going to happen. A commenter on another blog got me thinking yesterday and actually fact checking instead of going with the tide. Here is what I came up with.
| F% | ER | DP | RF/G | RF/9 | DG | EXO | DPR | RNGR | ERR | UZR | UZR/150 | |
| Hudson 2009 | 0.988 | 8 | 68 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 134 | 310 | -0.01 | -3.4 | 0.1 | -3.3 | |
| Castillo 2009 | 0.982 | 11 | 66 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 137 | 316 | -2.7 | -7.9 | 0.2 | -12 | |
| Castilo 2007 | 0.991 | 5 | 75 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 99 | 232 | -1.5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | |
| Hudson 3YA | 0.985 | 27 | 224 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 359 | 836 | 1.1 | -9.5 | 0.3 | -8 | -3.3 |
| Castillo 3YA | 0.986 | 22 | 182 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 309 | 718 | -3.4 | -12.7 | 2.8 | -13.4 | -6.5 |
More than anything it appears that both players according to UZR are on the decline. However, not turning this into an UZR debate their other numbers look very similar to each other. Castillo gets hurt on range but seems to be able to make the normal play as good or better than Hudson.  What I also have to wonder is what effect having 6 different 1B and only 1 experienced one (that was broken down) had on Castillo. Did having those guys over there change Castillo’s approach, his positioning? We know that Murphy’s range was off the charts, was he getting to a lot of balls that should have been Castillo’s? We know that Delgado’s range was not very good, was he playing closer to 1B? No defensive stat is going to measure these things completely.  However, Castillo’s stats were not that far removed from a positive UZR year 2007. Using Rate and Rate 2 from Baseball Prospectus Castillo was at 94 and 94 last season and his career averages are 97 and 96. 100 is deemed to be average. I know little about what goes into those ratings but they are closer to what my eyes tell me that Castillo was much better in 2009 than he was in 2008. In 2008 his Rate scores were 85 and 84.
Next up, look at their values.
Castillo was worth 7.2M according to Fangraphs last year, Hudson was worth 13M. According to Chone Projections 2010 Castillo will be worth 6.1M while Hudson will be worth 10M.
Is Hudson better than Castillo? Yes. Is the net gain worth the money needed to buy out Castillo and sign Hudson, not at all.
164 comments
prismo
2/2/2010-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
How many game losing pop-ups did Hudson drop last season?
(just kidding…sort of)
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
How many times was Slappy benched due to sucking last season?
prismo
2/2/2010-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
Check out the monthly OPS’
Castillo: .878/.665/.610/.926/.799/.606
Hudson: .948/.818/.612/.759/.763/.718
Castillo had three terrible months, Hudson 1 (and a sub-par September, but not nearly as bad as Castillo’s)
Hudson wasn’t benched due to sucking. In fact, IIRC, it was kind of a mystery why he was benched.
prismo
2/2/2010-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
Hudson played in 149 games though. So he only missed 13. Couldn’t have been benched that much.
Luis was healthy and played 142.
trs86
2/2/2010-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
Hudson was not really benched due to sucking. He was benched because Ronnie Belliard was better. Man that’s hard to say.
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
He was also benched because of wrist problems which hes had the
past few years.
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
In 239 PA in the second half, Gritty McNonsense had 21 runs scored and 14 RBI. And 2 SB and 12 GIDP.
I used to think that if I met God, I would ask about the origins of the universe or the meaning of life or who shot JFK, but now the ONLY thing I would ask is why so many people constantly talk about Orlando Hudson, the most ridiculously over-talked-about pretty good player in the history of organized sports.
Who, for the second straight offseason, cannot get a deal with any team for remotely what he is asking.
Please Lord above, let him sign with ANY TEAM or retire already!!
DNDJohan aka kistics
2/2/2010-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
Castillo has zero power. Hudson has some power. Shouldn’t that be the majority difference there?
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
Thank you sir.
Let us gently lay to rest the mysterious Legend of Gritty McNonsense.
saltygary
2/2/2010-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
At Second Base, batting eighth, YOUR 2009 NEW YORK METS MVP, Give It up Mets Fans LUIS CASTILLO!!!
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
LOL Funny!…Thank You!
trs86
2/2/2010-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
Only problem is he most likely will bat 2nd.
saltygary
2/2/2010-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
God no. I know he is dead eight at eighth but I would rather see Murph get the protection at the 2 hole.
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed!…Why would you want this guy in
the 2 hole? He can’t drive in anyone,no matter what he hits b/c very few of his hits travel more than 200′. Good luck scoring Santos or PH Tatis with that!
And why would you want him having more PAs
then anyone but Reyes??
trs86
2/2/2010-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
No way with the lineup as is will Murphy bat 2nd.
Murphy is almost a must to break up the RH brigade. Unless you slide Pagan in between Bay and Frenchy as he does hit RH’s well.
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
Slappy’s OBP was a LOT higher than Murph’s.
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah BUT these two careers are going in diff directions.
And Murphy would greatly benefit seeing Strikes with Reyes on i/f/o
him and Wright on deck behind him.
trs86
2/2/2010-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t disagree but again the Mets will need someone to break up Wright, Bay, Frenchy, Santos
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
Why?
trs86
2/2/2010-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
Cant really go with 4 RH in a row.
trs86
2/2/2010-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
Wright, .754 OPS vs RH compared to 1.100+ vs LH.
Bay .897 compared to almost 1.000 vs LH
Francouer .676 vs RH
Even Castillo for his career is much better against LH.
If you had
Wright, Bay, Frenchy, Santos, Castillo as your bottom then a team would just insert a RHRP pitcher from the 6th inning on.
saltygary
2/2/2010-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
I would rather see Murph get the protection with better pitches than have him either and only seeing meat balls. Slappy is a better contact hitter and can handle eight much better. Also agree on Fongy’s point about careers going in different directions.
The whole 5 RH in a row or bringing in a lefty for one hitter is overused. I have not seen one good piece on why it’s good to break up lefties and righties.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
I also think the L/R thing is way overplayed. And if Frenchy hits so poorly v. right handed pitchers he shouldn’t face them.
There you go, problem solved.
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
I am with Wanny on the general handedness debate.
trs86
2/2/2010-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
I am not big on the handedness debate either as I have expressed before. However, having 5 in a row seems a bit extreme. As to Wanny’s point on Frenchy, that does not really play into anything as we don’t have anything better for right now. Unless you want to put the Cat in RF.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:25pm at 1:25 pm (UTC -4)
The Cat, Matthews or Pagan when Beltran returns.
Matthews’s .739 v. righties is not great, but is still better than Frenchy (take that all you Frenchy lovers).
trs86
2/2/2010-1:28pm at 1:28 pm (UTC -4)
When Beltran returns I agree Wanny Frenchy can be benched more against tough RHP. I don’t think we need to go to a platoon yet until we see if the new Francouer can be a lasting one.
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
I agree, but not right now….in 2011, or even by the end of 2010, I totally agree.
saltygary
2/2/2010-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
Slap-Master Murph
OBP OPS OBS OPS
april 433 877 373 799
may 373 666 278 631
june 330 610 298 618
july 478 925 323 716
august 412 798 302 742
sept 359 671 298 854
Total 387 732 313 740
saltygary
2/2/2010-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
Wow that is easy to read, looked better before I hit enter.
Slap-Master Murph
OBP OPS OBS OPS
april 433 877 373 799
may 373 666 278 631
june 330 610 298 618
july 478 925 323 716
august 412 798 302 742
sept 359 671 298 854
Total 387 732 313 740
saltygary
2/2/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Damn it it’s TAKING MY SPACES OUT!!!
OK what I took from it is Slapper has a surprising OPS of 732 just below Murph
trs86
2/2/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Uh… I still can’t read it.
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
I am pro-Murph, I just think maybe we need Slappy batting 2nd to start the year.
If Murph keeps up what he was doing late in the year, I would love to see him hitting second for the next decade.
Hell, maybe he will be good enough to hit 3rd eventually.
GravediggerHebner
2/2/2010-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
Castillo had the worst year of his career in 2008 and every other year of his career has been remarkably consistent offensively yet it’s astounding how many people believe still that the 2008 Castillo is THE Castillo. The contract, the gimp and the Yankee game pop drop apparently are all many people see.
Castillo has averaged 86 runs scored in all seasons in which he’s played over 100 games and he scored 77 last year despite the Mets overall pathetic AAAA offense. He does what he does, which is get on base and score runs. A team desperate to reclaim it’s scoring prowess following a devastating 2009 would seem to be able to use someone with his skills.
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
Thats b/c the gimp isn’t going away with his recent history of Hip,Knee and Ankle problems.
Its also why he can’t steal 50/60 bases anymore,greatly
reducing the effectiveness of his “Slap&Run” games.
Further b/c of his Hip and Leg issues, he’s barely
a shell of the Fielder he was years ago.
The guys an old 35.
trs86
2/2/2010-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
Do you know why he even has the gimp Fongy? Did you watch him during his early days? He has one leg shorter than the other and has always had that gimp.
Also, if you would look at stats his defensive stats are not that far removed from his career averages.
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Ahh, yes my condescending friend,I’ve been watching him his entire career.
I guess you’re not aware of his chronic
knee and Hip problems Or that it was widely reported at the time,THAT when he was FA in the winter of ’03/’04 The New York Mets back off in their interest
in signing him because his Hip appeared so
bad that it may eventually end his career.
trs86
2/2/2010-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
That has nothing to do with his gimp fongy. He has always had the gimp. The hip and knee problems have most likely slowed him down but has not increased his shortness of one leg. He still looks as fast running the bases as he always has.
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, hes a real friggin SB
threat!…The same guy
who stole 50,62&48 in’99,’00
&’02.Yeah, hes the same player.
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
He stole 20/26 last year and 17/19 in 2008.
Thin ice, Fong my friend, thin ice.
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
Okay, so you’re happy with a Slap hitting, zero
power, minimal base threat who
is now a below average fielder with
an unmovable
contract???
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:57pm at 12:57 pm (UTC -4)
Satisfied maybe, thrilled, of course not.
But Fong, you are letting emotions make decisions here—a guy who steals 20 out of 26 is NOT a minimal base stealing threat, which is what I assume you mean….why the hell have I bitten on this hook today?
trs86
2/2/2010-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
So we are measuring fast based on SB? I guess Endy Chavez is slow as hell.
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:56pm at 12:56 pm (UTC -4)
Okay, TRS you
win. Castillos great!
Happy?
b/c it makes no sense arguing Castillo.
Were stuck with him,
thanks to another guy you dont think is all that bad, Omar Minaya.
What am I thinking?
Alls been great the past three yrs and 2010
looks bright!
Wake up.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
Fongy, where in that entire post did I say Castillo is great? Find one place?
My closing statement that you seem to ignore:
Is Hudson better than Castillo? Yes. Is the net gain worth the money needed to buy out Castillo and sign Hudson, not at all.
GravediggerHebner
2/2/2010-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
Of course the gimp isn’t going away. He’s always had it. One of his legs has always been shorter than the other, even when he was stealing 50/60 bases. By the way he hasn’t stolen 50/60 bases since he was 24. He’s been stealing 20/25 since he was 26 years old.
I realize he’s not the 26 yo Castillo anymore, but I also realize his one bad year was two years ago and he has otherwise been remarkably consistent, and that his most recent year was better than his average year. I don’t see the decline that you are so anxious to predict. He is the essentially the same Castillo at age 35 as he was at age 30, a guy who gets on base, steals 20/25, and scores 80/90 runs from at or close to the top of the order, not the bottom.
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
Grave is, as usual, right.
trs86
2/2/2010-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
I did not really look offensively but take a look at this:
RISP: .325, .397, .774
RISP2/0: .300 .391, .758
Runner on 3B 2outs: .304, .429, .733
2008:
RISP: .271 .379 .353 .732
RISP2/O: .263 .429 .316 .744
Runner on 3B 2outs: .375 .500 .438 .938
When is someone going to start calling Castillo CLUTCH?
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
Ah, nice work.
The truth hides and is elusive, but it does generally approach the surface.
prismo
2/2/2010-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
That’s not clutch as much as it’s probably around league average.
ceetar
2/2/2010-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
but well above “Mets average”
Another thing with the fangraphs price, as little as it matters, you’d have to factor in the cost for the Mets at 2B in acquiring Hudson, not just his value, because they’d have to pay Castillo as well.
But there is little benefit to doing so, Castillo gets a bad rap but Hudson isn’t much better, just more power. And Hudson really tired down the stretch and has had injuries (Whereas Castillo just really had the one injured season that he never recovered from that year). Do we really want a guy that’s going to fade in September?
Reyes is a good defensive SS, with good range. Murphy’s got increased range (of course Tatis has none, so please no platoon..) so the importance of range at 2B is lesser for the Mets. Castillo (for the most part obviously..and that popup DID drift a lot in the stupid wind-tunneled stadium) is pretty steady with the plays he does make and the turning the DP and what not. His OBP will turn into a lot of runs batting second, where I prefer him. Seems silly to squander his OBP down in the order. The higher up he is the more times he gets up, and on base, the more batters a SP will face, the quicker to the bullpen, the more RBI chances..
There is a poster somewhere that likes to preach Castillo leading off, Reyes second. He generally gets lambasted for it, but I’ve started to warm to the theory.
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
+ MANY!
trs86
2/2/2010-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
I would be one of those posters.
My lineup with Beltran out
Castillo, Pagan, Reyes, Wright, Bay, Murphy, Frenchy, Santos.
I completely agree on all your points but Tatits’ range. Seems as though he played a decent 1B last year.
ceetar
2/2/2010-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
Small sample size so stats are going to be a stretch. In my opinion Tatis played a disasterous outfield (except compared to Sheff) and a poor 1B. He was sure-handed and didn’t make errors, but he didn’ts eem very good at charging balls, playing bunts, or his range.
i also wonder if Manuel’s positioning ofthe fielders is what’s causing “Castillo is a statue” arguments.
stickguy
2/2/2010-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, I have preached to the luis at leadoff choir too (but only if they can’t figure out how to keep him out ofhte lineup entirely!)
trs86
2/2/2010-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
Not at all.
RISP: .257 .350
RISP2/o: .235 .349
runner on 3rd 2/O: .234 .351
Guy can’t hit it past deep 2nd but he is clutch according to clutch stats.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
Using the same years you have…
Castillo in 2009:
Late and close = 213 .299 .213
High leverage = 238 .356 .274
Castillo in 2008:
Late and close = .128 .227 .128
High leverage = 156 .296 .156
Maybe that’s why no one calls him clutch.
I won’t even get into your nonsensical computations of the fielding stats in the initial post.
trs86
2/2/2010-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks Wanny. I knew you could help.
But now we are saying that those are clutch stats but RISP and RISP2/O are not. Where is Alex when you need him.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
I seem to recall that in our previous discussions with Alex about David Wright that you agreed that these stats were were more reflective of clutch stats than the BA w/RISP that Alex was relying upon.
trs86
2/2/2010-12:57pm at 12:57 pm (UTC -4)
But that was Alex. LOL. I would do anything to prove him wrong.
But back to your point, you are correct. He did not do well in high leverage situations last year and even worse in 2008.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
Are you planning to run for public office?
trs86
2/2/2010-1:00pm at 1:00 pm (UTC -4)
Depends, would I be running against you or Alex?
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
I would expose your inconsistent positions each time if only I could keep up with them.
Alex would lead more of a one issue campaign on the anti-David Wright platform.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:19pm at 1:19 pm (UTC -4)
True but you are bound to have some dirty secrets I can find on you.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:27pm at 1:27 pm (UTC -4)
A guy who grew up cheering for Lenny Dykstra and Wally Backman? Nah.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
And if you want to use real sample sizes:
Career
w/RISP: 277 .370 .336
w/RISP 2 out: 266 .383 .327
Late and Close: 286 .363 .320
High leverage: 279 .356 .320
I’d say his numbers are ordinary but with such an utter lack of power, I can not even go that far.
trs86
2/2/2010-12:58pm at 12:58 pm (UTC -4)
Power with him is always a concern. However, those averages are about MLB average or slightly higher in every stat but SLG (which you don’t value that much anyway.)
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
Well for one thing, I do value slugging percentages but just not as much as OBP. But thanks for playing.
For another thing, the premise of this discussion was why people don’t call Slappy clutch. If, in fact, he is just average then I think you have your answer.
It’s remarkable, however, just how close to their overall averages most players “clutch” stats work out after an extended sample.
Perhaps “clutch” doesn’t exist afterall.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
That I can agree with you on and you know it.
Reggie Jackson’s post season numbers for example. About the same has his career averages.
My point was in the Castillo debate that everyone uses those stats to determine clutch yet no one mentions Castillo who has lead the team or been near the top all 3 years (2.25 years) he has been here.
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
And again, unless you have Hussain Bolt on 2B,
you ain’t scoring anyone from From Second on
Slappy’s 180′ base hits!
Jesus Christ!…How many times have we seen THAT
since hes been here???
Further, the guy is a friggin’ Jinx!!!
Our fortunes turned not long after he got here
and to prove hes a Jinx, HE becomes the only
guy not to miss significant time on a team
which suffered more injuries than any I’ve
ever heard of in a season.
He’s the friggin’ cooler…..Mush!!!
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
Pssst—A guy who only believes in fact-based things should really not believe in jinxes or coolers….
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
I believe in both my friend, as
well as faith and fate….
And while I want to have faith,
I think the mis-steps of this front office the past
two/three years has
already sealed our fate.
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
Fair enough!
GravediggerHebner
2/2/2010-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
At least you’re finally admitting this is all about a jinx!
trs86
2/2/2010-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
Way to pull out superstitions and spells. Perhaps we can borrow a witch doctor from the guy from Major League?
trs86
2/2/2010-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
More seriously Fongy.
With a runner at least on 2B Castillo had 29 hits and 24 RBI.
With just a runner on 2B Castillo had 13 hits and 8RBI.
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:50pm at 12:50 pm (UTC -4)
How has this team fared since
July 31st,2007????
I rest my case!!
The guys a friggin’ jinx!
Over paid, broken down, shell of the player he was a few years ago
who will be remembered more for
the harm he did as a Met than
for any good that came out of acquiring him.
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:51pm at 12:51 pm (UTC -4)
Saying he is a jinx devalues your entire persona, which, to me, is quite an admirable one….just sayin’…..
fongy2
2/2/2010-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
Well thank you.
But understand, I’m
only half-kidding.
I just want him out of here.
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-1:27pm at 1:27 pm (UTC -4)
I did mean that as a compliment…and if you are half-kidding, well, I should not have written that.
Sorry pal.
trs86
2/2/2010-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
Actually based on that stat stuff he was underpaid last year. But that does not include the jinx that caused the rest of the team to get injured.
fongy2
2/2/2010-12:58pm at 12:58 pm (UTC -4)
Shhh!!…Don’t let
Omar find out he’s underpaid….We’ll
get stuck with another extension.
stickguy
2/2/2010-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
what, you had to put up a post on Castillo just to torture me?
You can certainly argue that Gritty is not really that much of an upgrade, but at least he is better.
But, I don’t see anything to say that Luis is actully good, or worth having on the team.
So, are you trying to figure out which one is the worst 2B and which one the 2nd worst?
I personally wanted to see them go younger with Lopez, but that doesn’t seem to be happening, even though he seems to be in contract free-fall.
If we are stuck with slappy, stick him in the 8th hole to see how many pitches he canmake the starter throw.
besides, I have him pencilled in for a major injury this year, so we may not be seeing him all year anyway.
Cross your fingers my new focus (havens) takes off this year, so can be knocking on the door in 2011 at the latest. And who knows, if Luis goes down mid-season, maybe sooner!
metsfan4decades
2/2/2010-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
Stats and such aside, give Castillo credit for doing exactly what he told the FO he would do in 2009. He begged for another chance, said he’d come ready. And that’s what he did.
Honestly now, who among us would have predicted Castillo being one of only a handful NOT to hit the DL in 2009? I know I would have lost that bet. Only injury was a fluke one, tripping down the stairs and even then didn’t land him on the DL.
Given the fact that the Mets really didn’t have much choice in 2009, begging aside b/c no one was taking Castillo in any kind of trade coming off his 2008 season, you have to give credit to Louie for the effort he gave regardless.
DNDJohan aka kistics
2/2/2010-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with you. I give him credit for working hard and doing the necessary work to improve. Also another thing that I want to commend him for is the fact that he answered all the questions with the right answer after the ‘ball drop’. And came back the next day and had a good day. I think it takes guts and right attitude to do that.
Let’s just hope Ollie will learn from him.
DNDJohan aka kistics
2/2/2010-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not sure it would be a right way to compare players with OPS in this case. Murphy and Castillo are two different players. Murphy is more of a gap hitter and should have higher SLG % and Castillo should have higher OBP. Same thing with Hudson.
ceetar
2/2/2010-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
The other thing that gets lost here is that one of the biggest criticisms is the “Can’t score anyone from second” argument.
Well first off, if he’s batting second I think Reyes can score from second. If it’s the pitcher or a typical pinch hitter, probably not goingto score on any single.
Also, so what? He didn’t make an out. It’s now first and third. Or first and second if he walks. Another guy may hit it harder and score that run from second a couple more times, but he’s also going to strand that guy at second more often by striking out or just plain not getting it done.
Castillo always has the ability to force fielding errors (something that’s very common in todays game) due to his ability to get to first. I know he’s not Reyes fast, but he leads the league in Infield Hits and fielders know that and know they have to rush. That guy at second is going to advance on an out more often than another 2B.
Kingman 26
2/2/2010-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
Holy crap are you smacking it out of the park today!
Nice posts!
trs86
2/2/2010-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
And based on the stats above he did not have a problem getting runners in from 2nd. He had 24 RBI in 29 chances with a runner on 2B period and then 8 RBI in 13 chances with just a runner on 2B. With runners on 1st and 2nd the guy hit this: .435 .480 .435 .915
Really? The guy has issues with a runner on 2B?
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-12:58pm at 12:58 pm (UTC -4)
For his career with a runner on 2 he has hit .260 .386 .316.
2nd and third = 211 .331 .260.
1st and 2d = 244 .319 .280
He has 1610 plate appearances with RISP and 385 RBI (1317). So despite his .277 career batting average with RISP, he still only drives in a run less than 25% of the time (some of those hits may have scored two runs, which would lower his percentage).
trs86
2/2/2010-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
Yup.
Last 3 seasons are plain ole luck and we should see a return any time now.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:01pm at 1:01 pm (UTC -4)
Last season was a 45 at bat sample.
Good luck with that.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:09pm at 1:09 pm (UTC -4)
Last 3 seasons are plain ole luck and we should see a return any time now.
I know this goes against stats, but don’t we use the last 3 years for defense measurements? Would it not also be OK to use the last 3 for hitting because of sample size as well?
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
I have no idea which sets of stats you’re talking about using the last three years worth of. Are you referring to his batting average with a runner on second base?
If so, three years of 45 at bat samples are useless too.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
OK, so would 3 years of fielding stats be worthless compared to a career?
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:28pm at 1:28 pm (UTC -4)
Probably not depending upon how you use them (and assuming those three years are roughly equal sample sizes to any other three year period).
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:29pm at 1:29 pm (UTC -4)
And assuming you’re using the most recent three years in an effort to demonstrate a trend.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:35pm at 1:35 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah my point was that one year’s fielding stats can differ based on opportunities. Thus many use the last 3 years for a true measure of fielding stats. I would think that you could also do something similar with hitting stats and get a decent read. I think you would be better off using the last 3 because if a player has played a long time his last 3 years might be a lot different than his career averages.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:00pm at 1:00 pm (UTC -4)
That should have said about 25% of the time…not less than.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:05pm at 1:05 pm (UTC -4)
The NL average was .30% last year and that includes every hitter.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
So that would mean Mr. Clutch is average at best?
trs86
2/2/2010-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
That measures how often they get a runner in from 2B. Does that measure clutch or would OBP with runners in SP be a better measure?
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
OBP wouldn’t give any indication whatsoever if a runner scored. Highly unlikely that they’d have scored from second on a walk.
BA gives a better indication, though, I have no way of knowing whether it was one of his bleeders that did not allow runner to score.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, we are getting no where here. I don’t think RBIw/RISP even measures clutch and I don’t remember how that even got started.
I will agree he has no power if you can agree that over the course of his career, especially the last 3, he has done a good job of getting on base in those situations compared to MLB average.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:23pm at 1:23 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with the latter part.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve completely lost track of what it is you’re trying to say. As usual, you’re shifting from one thing to another.
The bottom line is that Slappy doesn’t do anything particularly clutch compared to the league averages.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
Besides get on base.
fongy2
2/2/2010-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
Wanny, you’re wasting your time.
While numbers are great, its hard to
argue what we see everyday.
The guy was a very nice, little pesky,
Wally Backman type player, sorry….better
BUT same type of player…WHO has aged,
is alot heavier than he was several yrs
ago, is not even close to being the same SB or fielding threat. We’re left with
a guy who’ll hit .280/.290 slapping it
around, doesn’t hit almost any Xtra BHs
and again, is no great threat on the paths. This for another 12 mil over the next two. I really like and respect you guys as fellow fans BUT C’mon!…This
guy’s not much of a player anymore….
And no stat tossing is gonna change that,
He’s pushing 35, has a bunch of chronic ailments and he aint gonna get better BUT worse.
Again, Wanny, you’ve seen enough of this
guy like all of us and we know, he ain’t
that good.
Some wanna argue just to argue.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
I hope you realize that I’ve only interjected in this argument to dispute the notion that Castillo is some kind of extraordinarily clutch player.
One can find a 45 at bat sample from Ron Hodges and think he is fantastic.
I don’t think Castillo is very good. But I don’t think he is that bad either.
I agree with you that his best days are clearly behind him. He does have one skill left, and that one skill happens to be among the most important, if not the most important — he still gets on base.
fongy2
2/2/2010-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
Understood and agree.
No disputing that but my
problem with him is that
every other part of his
game is a minus which
maybe wouldn’t be so bad if
he didn’t come with a 4yr/24million dollar deal,
preventing moving him.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:15pm at 1:15 pm (UTC -4)
I think the fact that there is NO market for 2B hurts him more than his stats.
Lopez, Kennedy and Hudson can’t even find a team yet.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, Fongy.
Castillo’s one skill was perhaps overvalued by the Mets in terms of his contract.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
And based on defensive stats he was average or above when they signed him.
wannybackstra
2/2/2010-1:30pm at 1:30 pm (UTC -4)
That may or may not be true. But no one is paying a 2B for 4 years of average defense.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:32pm at 1:32 pm (UTC -4)
OK as much as I am not really agreeing with UZR I know you value it.
Castillo was a positive 16.7 in the 4 years prior to his contract.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
Not arguing just to argue. That would describe you as much as me, considering you and I are “arguing”.
I firmly believe what my last line said:
Is Hudson better than Castillo? Yes. Is the net gain worth the money needed to buy out Castillo and sign Hudson, not at all.
fongy2
2/2/2010-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
We agree. I don’t think Hudson is a MAJOR upgrade
and not worth eating Castillos contract.
My feelin’ is though,
that we’ll end up seeing alot of Cora and Hernandez @2B this season.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe, I think that if Castillo goes down for a long period then the Mets make a move to bring someone in. Perhaps Hudson after the uh… uh… signs him.
fongy2
2/2/2010-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
I just hope The Reds haven’t trade Phillips somewhere else by that
time.
GravediggerHebner
2/2/2010-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
So who’s going to play Gritty McHudson and Slappy Castillo in the movie?
Based on popular perception I’m thinking Denzel Washington for Gritty and Chris Tucker for Slappy.
njstuckintx
2/2/2010-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
No Omar Epps?
GravediggerHebner
2/2/2010-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
On the TRDMB budget it’ll probably turn out to be Epps and Dule Hill instead of Denzel and Tucker.
CaseStreet
2/2/2010-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
Support Your Second Baseman!
(Literally! Castillo should only walk during the games to preserve his knees. I’ll chip in for a wheelchair.)
fongy2
2/2/2010-1:11pm at 1:11 pm (UTC -4)
I told you guys before, The 2009 New York Met highlight DVD
should have been named after an old Bronson Pinchot movie:
“SLAPPY AND THE STINKERS”
DNDJohan aka kistics
2/2/2010-1:17pm at 1:17 pm (UTC -4)
The way that I interpret this is that there’s very little added value in terms of production if you consider the added cost for Hudson.
If you get rid of Castillo’s salary and add Hudson for same or little bit more ($6-7M per), then I think it’s worth it to add Hudson. But if the added cost is more than $1M, I don’t think it’s worth having Hudson over Castillo.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:22pm at 1:22 pm (UTC -4)
According to fangraphs and projections if the net was 10M then we would break even.
Thus we could eat 4 on Castillo and pay Hudson 6 total and break even. Neither of those are likely.
DNDJohan aka kistics
2/2/2010-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah. I’m sure the Mets are not willing to eat $4M of Castillo AND add Hudson at $6M. That’s IF Hudson is willing to come to the Mets at $6M.
fongy2
2/2/2010-1:22pm at 1:22 pm (UTC -4)
I got it!!! Just trade him to The Reds for Brandon Phillips
and Bronson Arroyo!…Throw in Ollie if you need to!
…..Oh wait!!!…..Sorry, this post belonged on mattsblog.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:25pm at 1:25 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, now that’s the fongy I enjoy.
GravediggerHebner
2/2/2010-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
Throw in Eddie Kunz for Joey Votto! Da Redz need da pitchin.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:30pm at 1:30 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, I did read something interesting yesterday that Kunz looked in great shape (came to camp out of shape last year) and looks the best he has on the mound.
CaseStreet
2/2/2010-2:25pm at 2:25 pm (UTC -4)
speaking of MB, why would anyone propose trading Pagan now that Beltran is out till….?
trs86
2/2/2010-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
I think the thought they need a pitcher more than another OF?
GravediggerHebner
2/2/2010-2:55pm at 2:55 pm (UTC -4)
Both can’t be true. Either they needed a CF so that’s why they traded a pitcher for one, or they didn’t. Acquiring Matthews just to trade Pagan before any determination on Beltran leaves them just as short on CF as they were before acquiring Matthews.
trs86
2/2/2010-3:00pm at 3:00 pm (UTC -4)
I am guessing that if traded that pitcher would be a starter. So while yes they traded a pitcher for GMJR the net would be a SP pitcher.
GravediggerHebner
2/2/2010-3:08pm at 3:08 pm (UTC -4)
Understood but then the idea of acquiring Matthews due to a lack of depth in CF is shot because you’re back where you started with Jesus Feliciano or FMart as the next and only options should GMJ get hurt.
I am in the camp that I hope they didn’t get GMJ so they could then flip Pagan for a starting pitcher because that means GMJ plays a lot, and God forbid if Beltran doesn’t come back well or promptly. I hope MC is wrong about this.
stickguy
2/2/2010-1:45pm at 1:45 pm (UTC -4)
made the mistake of checking out MB. THere is actually a poster on there saying that Jamie Moyer would be the Mets #2. Just when you think you heard it all…
did have an interview with Pelfry up. SOme decent questions there, trying to get pelf to dump on the defense and catchers mostly though.
trs86
2/2/2010-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
If we want Moyer I am sure the Phillies would give him to us.
ceetar
2/2/2010-1:59pm at 1:59 pm (UTC -4)
Pelfrey gives me confidence in there actually. He shows a lot of maturity towards growing and pitching, doesn’t kill the defense. (I don’t fully buy Defense Independent Pitching Stuff, but the mindset of not being able to control what happens post-release is important) sorta kills Santos/Schneider in a way, and demonstrates a hunger to succeed.
As I’ve said, I don’t see Pelfrey getting worse. He won 10 games on a bad team. He probably wins 2-3 more just on offense last year, and if he improves a bit, we’re talking about being able to win 15+
trs86
2/2/2010-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, it really depends on luck as much as anything else on his wins total. If you go up against bad pitchers and your team scores a lot then even Trax can win 15.
GravediggerHebner
2/2/2010-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
I agree completely that last year had he pitched exactly the same but with the proper offense he was probably 12-10 instead of 10-12. And I expect him to pitch better in 2010 than he did in ’09.
DNDJohan aka kistics
2/2/2010-2:08pm at 2:08 pm (UTC -4)
I think it can go either way. I agree that he probably would have won 2-3 more games if the Offense was there, but I’m hesitant to say that Pelf will be better this year. Sure he has more experience and hopefully gotten over all the yips and yaps. But the teams around the league know him better. They’ll be able to adjust to him better. If I were the opposing manager, I would throw in all kinds of yips and yaps at him to throw him off his rhythm.
But I hope you are right.
trs86
2/2/2010-2:16pm at 2:16 pm (UTC -4)
What exactly would a yip or yap look like if someone was throwing them at me?
I think he most likely will be better this year as well. Don’t really have any stats to show it though.
GravediggerHebner
2/2/2010-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, there’s an expected progression from prospects as they age and gain experience. It obviously doesn’t always work out but I think the expectations are there at least through the age of 28 or so for most anyone ever referred to correctly as “prospect.”
CaseStreet
2/2/2010-3:12pm at 3:12 pm (UTC -4)
Here’s CaseStreet’s Projections free of charge:
Santana 20 WINS, 28 QS, 34 GS
Pelf 15 WINS, 23 QS, 33 GS
Ollie 17 WINS, 19 QS, 32 GS
Maine 15 WINS, 17 QS, 32 GS
Nieve 6 WINS, 8 QS, 11 GS
Niese 2 WINS, 4 QS, 10 GS
Figgy 3 WINS, 5 QS, 10 GS
johan4cy
2/2/2010-3:14pm at 3:14 pm (UTC -4)
so you think the Mets will have 4 15+ game winners and 78 wins straight out of their rotation? How many bullpen wins?
CaseStreet
2/2/2010-3:26pm at 3:26 pm (UTC -4)
12 of course
GravediggerHebner
2/2/2010-3:19pm at 3:19 pm (UTC -4)
Did you use the CASE projection system?
Conjecture
Assumption
Shot in the dark
Ego
CaseStreet
2/2/2010-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
just replace Conjecture with Cojones
trs86
2/2/2010-3:29pm at 3:29 pm (UTC -4)
UH. OK let me try this. I am not going to do QS because I don’t have a clue.
Santana 19W 33 GS
Pelfrey 14W 32 GS
Ollie 12W 31 GS
Maine 13W 30
Neive/Niese 10W 25 GS
Figgy I hope None.
Realistically: others 5W 11GS.
johan4cy
2/2/2010-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
using 2008 stats (I didn’t use last years because there were a few guys who started and relieved games or just because I didn’t know how many games each of those guys started) about 28% of Mets wins came from the bullpen. Therefore, 72% came from the rotation. If those 78 wins from the rotation you have above hold true, they are about 72% of the wins. Thus: x being predicted wins in 10′.
78/72 = X/100
7800 = 72x
7800/72 = 108.33
X = 108
Ok, I guess the Mets will have their best regular season in team history(tied with 86′)
trs86
2/2/2010-3:39pm at 3:39 pm (UTC -4)
Do mine, do mine.
johan4cy
2/2/2010-3:42pm at 3:42 pm (UTC -4)
lol 85… sounds much more realistic.
trs86
2/2/2010-3:43pm at 3:43 pm (UTC -4)
Oh yeah baby. I still got it.
trs86
2/2/2010-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
But honestly 5 double digit winners should get us more than 85 wins right?
johan4cy
2/2/2010-3:47pm at 3:47 pm (UTC -4)
whoops, left out one of your starters. You have predicted 101 wins. I’ll be hopeful!
trs86
2/2/2010-3:51pm at 3:51 pm (UTC -4)
Uh oh. I stink
Lets look at it again.
Johan 18
Pelfrey 12
Maine 10
Perez 10
5th starters 10
Others 5
That’s about 90 right?
trs86
2/2/2010-3:55pm at 3:55 pm (UTC -4)
Honestly if healthy are any of those numbers a stretch?
johan4cy
2/2/2010-4:03pm at 4:03 pm (UTC -4)
no, those all sound very reasonable…
johan4cy
2/2/2010-3:54pm at 3:54 pm (UTC -4)
yep, it comes out to 90.2 wins
GravediggerHebner
2/2/2010-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
That ratio works perfectly for 1986 as starters won 78 games and relievers won 30. The “1-5″ starters won 74 of those games if that means anything.
johan4cy
2/2/2010-3:48pm at 3:48 pm (UTC -4)
See? I’m a genius!
CaseStreet
2/2/2010-4:18pm at 4:18 pm (UTC -4)
Interestingly, in starters won:
65 in 06
67 in 07
64 in 08
while bullpen won:
32 in 06
21 in 07
25 in 08
BULLPEN WAS THE DIFFERENCE!
still, though, I’m sticking to my 78 Wins by the rotation
Mr North Jersey
2/2/2010-3:26pm at 3:26 pm (UTC -4)
Just in case I posted this on the prior post but if you are not in front of a tv and would like to watch today’s ballgame.
http://www.justin.tv/elpizzero5#r=Afp7Xp4