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Feb 09

Is Omar Minaya Destroying The Mets Via Free Agency And The Amateur Draft?

Categories:

Grave, Mets, MLB Draft

by Mr North Jersey

You decide.  The way the current system of free agent rankings and compensation works the amateur draft and free agent signings are linked whether we like it or not.

Omar Minaya’s first amateur draft as GM of the New York Mets was the 2005 First-Year Player Draft.  Below is a brief look at how many picks each National League team has made, what picks have been impacted by free agent signings, how many of those picks have made it to the Major Leagues, who they are and what overall # pick those players that have made it were from their 2005-2008 drafts inclusive.  The 2009 draft is not included because no player taken that year has made their major league debut.  The American League is not included because they are not the main competition from day-to-day and because they have the DH which upsets me greatly (but truthfully because I just don’t have the time).

For those who don’t know, basically a team will have more overall picks as compensation for losing major league players via free agency (Type A or B free agents), and fewer if it signs players via free agency (Type A free agents).  These picks gained or lost are early round picks which is generally when the prime talent is considered to be available.

The teams are listed in descending order based on their total number of picks made in these 4 drafts.  A team which neither signed nor lost any free agents, or maintained a balance of both, would have 50 picks annually or 200 total during the period of time being examined here should they choose to exercise all their picks, but not all teams use their full allotment of picks as you’ll see if you actually read all this.  Whether the draft picks were signed or not is not a factor.  If more than one team made the same number of total picks those teams are listed alphabetically.

So please take a look at the information below, note how many picks some teams had and how few others had due to the way they utilize Type A & B free agents and/or the way they simply decide to stop drafting, and note what these teams have thus far produced with those picks and let us know your conclusions in the comments section.  Who is balancing free agency and the draft well?  Who is not?  Is Omar Minaya?

Braves: 209 total picks, 6 have reached the majors, 3%.

In 2005 the Braves received the 41st overall pick (supplemental) and the 77th overall pick from the Yankees signing of FA P Jaret Wright.  In 2006 they received the 38th overall pick (supplemental) and the 72nd overall pick from the Yankees signing of FA P Kyle Farnsworth, and the 43rd overall pick (supplemental) and the 51st overall pick from the Dodgers signing of FA SS Rafael Furcal.  In 2007 they received the 33rd overall pick (supplemental) and the 69th overall pick from the Orioles signing of FA P Danys Baez.  In 2008 they received the 40th overall pick (supplemental) from the Royals signing of FA P Ron Mahay.  Thus the 9 extra picks.  None of their compensation picks have reached the majors.

Cardinals: 207 total picks, 13 have reached the majors, 6%.

In 2005 the Cardinals received the 28th overall pick and the 43rd overall pick (supplemental) from the Red Sox signing of FA SS Edgar Renteria, and the 46th overall pick (supplemental) and the 70th overall pick from the Giants signing of FA C Mike Matheny.  In 2006 they received the 42nd overall pick (supplemental) and the 54th overall pick from the Giants signing of FA P Matt Morris, and the 76th overall pick from the Phillies signing of FA 3B Abraham Nunez.  In 2007 they received the 36th overall pick (supplemental) and the 71st overall pick from the Brewers signing of FA P Jeff Suppan.  In 2008 they received the 39th overall pick (supplemental) from the Rays signing of FA P Troy Percival.  The Cardinals chose not to exercise their final 3 picks of the 2005 amateur draft.  Thus the net of 7 extra picks.  3 of their compensation picks have reached the majors (Colby Rasmus, Chris Perez & Clayton Mortensen).

Diamondbacks, 207 total picks, 10 have reached the majors, 5%.

In 2005 the Diamondbacks received the 31st overall pick (supplemental) and the 83rd overall pick from the Mariners signing of FA 1B Richie Sexson.  In 2006 they received the 34th overall pick (supplemental) and the 86th overall pick from the Giants signing of FA P Tim Worrell.  In 2007 they received the 50th overall pick (supplemental) from the Brewers signing of FA SS Craig Counsell and the 61st overall pick (supplemental) from the Mariners signing of FA P Miguel Batista.  In 2008 they received the 43rd overall pick (supplemental) from the Twins signing of FA P Livan Hernandez.  Thus the 7 extra picks.  1 of their compensation picks has reached the majors (Micah Owings).

Marlins, 207 total picks, 9 have reached the majors, 4%.

In 2005 the Marlins received the 22nd overall pick and the 34th overall pick (supplemental) from the Giants signing FA P Armando Benitez, the 29th overall pick and 44th overall pick (supplemental) from the Yankees signing FA P Carl Pavano,  and the 79th overall pick (supplemental) from the Twins signing of C Mike Redmond.  In 2006 they received the 36th overall pick (supplemental) and the 90th overall pick from the Blue Jays signing of FA P A.J. Burnett.  Thus the 7 extra picks.  4 of their compensation picks have reached the majors (Ryan Tucker, Sean West, Brett Hayes & Chris Coghlan).

Phillies, 205 total picks, 5 have reached the majors, 2%.

In 2005 the Phillies lost their 1st round pick for signing FA P Jon Leiber.  In 2006 they received the 18th overall pick and the 37th overall pick (supplemental) from the Mets signing of FA P Billy Wagner, and lost their 1st round pick for signing FA P Tom Gordon.  In 2007 they received the 37th overall pick (supplemental) and the 107th overall pick from the Indians signing of FA OF David Dellucci.  In 2008 they received the 34th overall pick (supplemental) and the 51st overall pick from the Giants signing of FA OF Aaron Rowand, and the 110th overall pick (supplemental) for failure to sign a previous draft pick.  Thus the net of 5 extra picks.  None of their compensation picks have reached the majors.

Nationals, 203 total picks, 7 have reached the majors, 3%.

In 2005 the Nationals lost their 2nd round draft pick for signing FA 3B Vinny Castilla and their 3rd round draft pick for signing FA SS Christian Guzman.  In 2006 they received the 22nd overall pick from the A’s signing of FA P Esteban Loaiza and the 70th overall pick from the Angels signing of FA P Hector Carrasco.  In 2007 they received the 31st overall pick (supplemental) and the 67th overall pick from the Cubs signing of FA OF Alfonso Soriano, and the 49th overall pick (supplemental) for the Mariners signing of FA OF Jose Guillen.  Thus the net of 3 extra picks.  1 of their compensation picks has reached the majors (Jordan Zimmermann).

Reds, 202 total picks, 8 have reached the majors, 4%.

In 2007 the Reds received the 34th overall pick (supplemental) and the 104th overall pick from the Giants signing of FA 1B Rich Aurilia, and the 53rd overall pick (supplemental) from the Mets signing of FA P Scott Schoeneweis.  In 2008 they lost their 2nd round draft pick for signing FA P Francisco Cordero.  Thus the net of 2 extra draft picks.  None of their compensation picks have reached the majors.

Rockies, 202 total picks, 2 have reached the majors, 1%.

In 2005 the Rockies received the 32nd overall pick (supplemental) and the 52nd overall pick from the Nationals signing of FA 3B Vinny Castilla.  Thus 2 extra draft picks.  None of their compensation picks have made the majors.

Pirates, 200 total picks, 3 have reached the majors, 1%.

Brewers, 199 total picks, 5 have reached the majors, 3%.

In 2005 the Brewers lost their 2nd round pick for signing FA C Damian Miller.  In 2007 they lost their 2nd round pick for signing FA P Jeff Suppan.  In 2008 they received the 32nd overall pick (supplemental) and the 53rd overall pick from the Reds signing of FA P Francisco Cordero, and the 35th overall pick (supplemental) and the 54th overall pick from the White Sox signing of FA P Scott Linebrink.  The Brewers chose not to exercise their final 3 picks in the 2007 draft.  Thus the net loss of 1 pick.  None of their compensation picks have reached the majors.

Cubs, 199 total picks, 3 have reached the majors, 2%.

In 2005 the Cubs received the 108th overall pick from the Red Sox signing of FA P Matt Clement.  In 2006 they lost their 2nd round pick for signing FA P Bobby Howry, their 3rd round pick for signing FA P Scott Eyre and their 4th round pick for signing FA OF Jacque Jones.  In 2007 they received the 48th overall pick (supplemental) from the Dodgers signing of FA OF Juan Pierre, and lost their 2nd round pick for signing FA OF Alfonso Soriano.  In 2008 they received the 41st overall pick (supplemental) from the Brewers signing of FA C Jason Kendall.  Thus the net loss of 1 pick.  None of their compensation picks has made the majors.

Giants, 199 total picks, 12 have reached the majors, 6%.

In 2005 the Giants lost their 1st round pick for signing FA P Armando Benitez, their 2nd round pick for signing FA C Mike Matheny, and their 3rd round pick for signing FA SS Omar Vizquel.  In 2006 they received the 33rd overall pick (supplemental) and the 89th overall pick from the Cubs signing of FA P Scott Eyre, and they lost their 2nd round pick for signing FA P Matt Morris and their 3rd round pick for signing FA P Tim Worrell.  In 2007 they received the 22nd overall pick and the 43rd overall pick (supplemental) from the Dodgers signing of FA P Jason Schmidt, the 29th overall pick and the 32nd overall pick (supplemental) from the Mets signing of FA OF Moises Alou, and the 51st overall pick (supplemental) from the Reds signing of FA P Mike Stanton, and they lost their 2nd round pick for signing FA P Barry Zito, their 3rd round pick for signing FA 1B Rich Aurilia, and their 4th round pick for signing FA OF Dave Roberts.  In 2008 they received the 37th overall pick (supplemental) from the Phillies signing of 3B Pedro Feliz, and they lost their 2nd round pick for signing FA OF Aaron Rowand.  Thus the net loss of 1 pick.  2 of their compensation picks have made the majors (Emmanuel Burriss & Conor Gillaspie).

Astros, 192 total picks, 3 have reached the majors, 2%.

In 2005 the Astros received the 38th overall pick (supplemental) and the 89th overall pick from the Mets signing of FA OF Carlos Beltran.  In 2007 they lost their 1st round pick for signing FA OF Carlos Lee, and their 2nd round pick for signing FA P Woody Williams.  In 2008 they received the 38th overall pick (supplemental) from the Rays signing FA P Trever Miller, and the 109th overall pick (supplemental) for failure to sign a previous draft pick.  The Astros chose not to exercise their final 4 picks of the 2005 amateur draft and their final 6 picks of the 2007 amateur draft.  Thus a net loss of 8 picks.  1 of their compensation picks has made the majors (Tommy Manzella).

Mets, 191 total picks, 9 have reached the majors, 5%.

In 2005 the Mets lost their 2nd round pick for signing FA P Pedro Martinez and their 3rd round pick for signing FA OF Carlos Beltran.  In 2006 they lost their 1st round pick for signing FA P Billy Wagner.  In 2007 they received the 42nd overall pick (supplemental) and the 77th overall pick from the Indians signing of FA P Roberto Hernandez, and they received the 47th overall pick (supplemental) and 99th overall pick from the Orioles signing of FA P Chad Bradford, and they lost their 1st round pick for signing FA OF Moises Alou.  In 2008 the Mets received the 18th overall pick and the 33rd overall pick (supplemental) from the Braves signing FA P Tom Glavine.  The Mets chose not to exercise their final 10 picks in the 2007 draft.  Thus a net loss of 9 picks.  1 of their compensation picks has reached the majors (Eddie Kunz).

Padres, 187 total picks, 10 have reached the majors, 5%.

In 2005 the Padres received the 35th overall pick (supplemental) and the 76th overall pick from the Red Sox signing FA P David Wells.  In 2006 they received the 35th overall pick (supplemental) and the 53rd overall pick from the Orioles signing FA P Roberto Hernandez.  In 2007 they received the 40th overall pick (supplemental) and the 81st overall pick from the Astros signing FA P Woody Williams, they received the 46th overall pick (supplemental) and the 134th overall pick from the Giants signing FA OF Dave Roberts, they received the 57th overall pick (supplemental) from the Mets signing FA P Chan Ho Park, they received the 63rd overall pick (supplemental) from the A’s signing FA P Alan Embree, and they received the 64th overall pick (supplemental) from the Giants signing FA 1B Ryan Klesko. In 2008 they received the 42nd overall pick (supplemental) from the Brewers signing FA OF Mike Cameron, they received the 46th overall pick (supplemental) for the Astros signing FA P Doug Brocail, and they received the 111th overall pick (supplemental) for failure to sign a previous draft pick.  The Padres chose not to exercise their final 5 picks in the 2006 draft, their final 15 picks in the 2007 draft and their final 7 picks in the 2008 draft.  Thus a net loss of 13 picks.  2 of their compensation picks have made it to the majors (Cesar Ramos & Nick Hundley).

Dodgers, 186 total picks, 4 have reached the majors, 2%.

In 2005 the Dodgers received the 40th overall pick (supplemental) and the 51st overall pick from the Mariners signing of FA 3B Adrian Beltre, and they lost their 1st round pick for signing FA P Derek Lowe.  In 2006 they received the 26th overall pick and the 31st overall pick (supplemental) from the Angels signing FA P Jeff Weaver, and they lost their 2nd round pick for signing FA SS Rafael Furcal and their 3rd round pick for signing FA 3B Bill Mueller.  In 2007 they received the 20th overall pick and the 39th overall pick (supplemental) from the Red Sox signing FA SS Julio Lugo, and they lost their 1st round pick for signing FA P Jason Schmidt.  In 2007 the Dodgers chose not to exercise their final 11 picks of the draft and in 2008 they chose not to exercise their final 5 picks.  Thus a net loss of 14 picks.  1 of their compensation picks has made it to the majors (Luke Hochevar).

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70 comments

  1. prismo

    2/9/2010-8:08am at 8:08 am (UTC -4)

    Reply

    Oh my god Grave…epic tags. I’ll comment on the post in a minute…

    But first – SNOW MAP!!!
    http://twitpic.com/127pay
    Two points:
    1. I’m thinking there will be some mixing in coastal NJ, hence the lower snow totals. If there’s less mixing (snow starts sooner), it could easily jump into the 8-12″ range.
    2. Localized areas in the 12-18″ region could see over 18 inches of snow.

    1. stickguy

      2/9/2010-8:20am at 8:20 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      I am smack in the pink again.

      I blame you for this Pris. All your fault.

    2. ceetar

      2/9/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      Looks like I’m on the cusp of 8-12 and 12-18, but we’ll see.

    3. GravediggerHebner

      2/9/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      Last time your map which showed me just north of the snowline was 100% correct, I got nothing. This time I’m on the border of the 4-8 & 8-12 regions so I’ll be picking up some ice melt and placing the shovels just outside the doors.

      Thanks for this Priz, it is a great help in planning and especially as relates to game forecasts makes this blog rather unique and wonderful.

  2. prismo

    2/9/2010-8:12am at 8:12 am (UTC -4)

    Reply

    Seems like there are some terrible teams near the top (Nationals, Reds) and some good teams near the bottom (Dodgers, usually the Mets). Also, the Mets are right in the middle in terms of % making it to the majors. Is it better if that number is higher or lower? A lower number could either indicate worse prospects, or a better major league team that’s in less need of young reinforcements.

    1. stickguy

      2/9/2010-8:21am at 8:21 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      it makes sense that better and wealthier teams will sign more FAs, and retain their type A/B guys, and lousy/poor teams will let their top talent walk for the draft picks.

  3. stickguy

    2/9/2010-8:17am at 8:17 am (UTC -4)

    Reply

    Wow. This was long. But the Mets seem to be doing pretty good at 5% in themajors rate. Higher than most teams. And I don’t think the 10 skipped picks should be factored in, since they have nothing to do with FAs and comp picks?

    I don’t have time to fully work out the details, but I think there is a missing component to the arguement (or maybe you made it, since I just skimmed).

    That is, while picks are nice, you lose players to get them, and generally, I would guess that type A FAs are worth more than unknown future draft picks (since they are, after all, type As!)

    So while it will be nice for the Angels to get some additional early round picks, does it make the team better considering they had to lose Lackey and others to get them?

    Same with the Red Sox and Bay.

    SOmetiems you get lucky and the type A is past their sale date (glavine? Wagner?), but not always.

    And if you sign a FA, the team (ST) should be better, with the big hit coming to the payroll! I am going to assume the Mets will be more successful over the next 2-3 years with Bay as opposed to a 2010 2nd round draft pick playing in St. Lucie!

  4. ceetar

    2/9/2010-8:49am at 8:49 am (UTC -4)

    Reply

    What I want to know is a report of some player that didn’t get picked or sign with the Mets because they didn’t want to pay him above slot.

    1. stickguy

      2/9/2010-9:11am at 9:11 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      I suspect that whole above slot thing is an urban legand or just a red herring. And other than that Beato (sp?) guy, I don’t remember hearing too many other names.

      But, “everyone knows” it is a fact.

      Don’t forget that the Mets have picked down toward the bottom of the 1st round (and some years not until the 2nd round) for a while now, so any players falling had to pass a lot of teams. Sometiems more than once, plus the compensation round.

      So, how can it be that the Mets are the “only” team sticking to the slots? Wouldn’t all these fantastic players be snapped up by the other teams that pay no attention to slotting?

      1. ceetar

        2/9/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)

        Reply

        They did not sign 2 guys they drafted last year, which is among the worst, but I think the Mets do tend to take chances with guys that may decide to go to college. We already know the ‘least money’ spent is a red herring due to not having many picks.

        We’ve got a pretty good prospect at OF,1B,C,2B, a pitcher or two.. coincidentially all positions that may become available in the near future (which reeks of having a plan) Prospects are always a crap shoot, but best case being you’ve filled all your holes with prospects is a safe way to go, and sign free agents for the ones that don’t make it. This also plays to their conservative offseason as well, because the prospects are on the cusp of making themselves more well known, and it’ll be a lot easier to evaluate problem areas soon.

        1. trs86

          2/9/2010-9:23am at 9:23 am (UTC -4)

          Reply

          True, what no one mentions is that this past year the Mets did indeed go over slot. When I bring it up people say yeah but it was only a little. Did they want the Mets to go more over slot just to prove they will indeed go over slot?
          I have no idea what happen in the negotiations for the 2 lost picks.

          1. stickguy

            2/9/2010-9:31am at 9:31 am (UTC -4)

            just because a guy is asking for way over slot doesn’t mean he is worth it. Lots of guys with college scholarships on the table ask for the moon, not expecting to get it, but just in case some team is dumb enough to give it to them.

          2. GravediggerHebner

            2/9/2010-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)

            true and that’s where your scouting comes in to help determine if you project the player to be worth it or not, although if you don’t project the player to be worth it I question why you would draft them there.

            If the Mets are going to play the “slot” game they shouldn’t have wasted 2 top 10 picks last year on guys they couldn’t sign.

          3. trs86

            2/9/2010-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)

            Don’t you think 2 top 10 picks sounds misleading?

          4. wannybackstra

            2/9/2010-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)

            How about two of the team’s top 4 picks?

          5. wannybackstra

            2/9/2010-11:15am at 11:15 am (UTC -4)

            I should say 2 of their top 5.

          6. GravediggerHebner

            2/9/2010-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)

            It may “sound misleading” but it’s factually correct, and it’s not a question like my title for this post that might also sound misleading if one doesn’t notice that it’s a question and the first sentence of the post is “you decide” for example (not that you misunderstood that, just citing a recent example of the phenomenon in general).

            The most factually correct way I can put it is they did not sign their 4th and 5th overall picks (which were 5th (# 164) and 6th (# 194) rounders but they had no 1st rounder due to KRod).

          7. trs86

            2/9/2010-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)

            I think if you changed it to 2 of their top 10 picks or maybe rounds. To me it reads as though they did not sign 2 picks from the top 10 in the draft.

            The baseball draft is very long and while I don’t have a clue why those guys were not signed they were not “Top 10 Picks”.

            I know that’s picky but it just read strange to me.

          8. GravediggerHebner

            2/9/2010-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)

            That complaint is reasonable and well founded. I can only use all the writing I’ve done recently as an excuse for my shorthand, that and the trust that you knew what I was talking about.

            But it undeniably has the potential to mislead. I really do try and I bet you know that I do, but I can’t successfully cover every potential inference of every word I type or my already insufferably long posts and comments would only become more so. At some points along the way I have to believe/assume that my vague words will be interpreted correctly.

          9. trs86

            2/9/2010-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)

            I knew what you meant for sure. It really was picky but we also have some Mets fans that don’t pay attention to the draft at all. Sorry for being picky there. I just think with your piece that it’s important to note that in the longrun those 2 picks are most likely meaningless. I still don’t know why they were not signed. Maybe they ask for ridiculous amounts, maybe scouts changed their minds, maybe the Mets budget was spent on them barely going over slot with their 1st pick. LOL.

            Not really a beef with you there Grave, just afraid some would misunderstand.

          10. GravediggerHebner

            2/9/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)

            I didn’t reference those picks at all in the post, just in the comments following up on players not being signed. So anyone inclined to just read the post wouldn’t even be involved in this aspect of the topic necessarily.

            But ultimately, understood. The best thing about this exchange is that the initial point has now been clarified. I have no problem with clarification. It can only help in decision making.

          11. wannybackstra

            2/9/2010-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)

            Great, they went over slot with the 72nd overall pick and then lost it’s two next top highest picks because they wouldn’t spend on them.

            Let’s give them a pat on the back.

          12. wannybackstra

            2/9/2010-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)

            I apoligize to Kingman for improper use of an apostrophe.

          13. wannybackstra

            2/9/2010-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)

            Damn it. I’m in Mattsblog mode today.

            apologize!! and they lost their next picks!

          14. trs86

            2/9/2010-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)

            Hey, there’s the guy that does it. Thanks for playing.

          15. wannybackstra

            2/9/2010-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)

            I don’t know to what “playing” you’re referring. I don’t think I’ve ever suggested that the Mets should have paid Matz more than he got.

            Feel free to pat the Mets on the back for signing the 72nd pick, while allowing 2 other picks from their top 4 to walk and generally being one of the few teams (perhaps the only big market team) who closely follow the league’s slotting guideline.

          16. wannybackstra

            2/9/2010-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)

            And there is some merit to an argument that their willingness to go slightly above slot is not necessarily something to credit them for (Matz’s deal would ordinarily have placed him in the late first round).

            Going slightly above slot for one guy does not exhibit the willingness to aggressively pursue the best players.

          17. trs86

            2/9/2010-11:45am at 11:45 am (UTC -4)

            No but it does mean that the Mets do not have a firm rule of not going over slot right?

          18. trs86

            2/9/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)

            Every time I bring up the fact of the Mets went over slot “When I bring it up people say yeah but it was only a little.”
            There has to be a qualifier. All I said is a fact. The Mets went over slot. I even admitted it was by a very small amount. Does that change the fact that they went over slot?

          19. Mr North Jersey

            2/9/2010-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)

            I don’t follow the draft that much but I think while factually you are correct it is the spirit behind going over slot that the Mets are not following. Drafting the best player possible with your highest picks knowing that you will have to pay over slot to sign him.

          20. trs86

            2/9/2010-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)

            I am hoping with this last season of them actually going over slot for the guy they wanted that it is a step in the right direction from the Mets that indeed they will pay above slot for guys they feel warrant going over slot for. Before I was afraid it was more “MLB says don’t go over slot, we like MLB”.

          21. wannybackstra

            2/9/2010-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)

            The Mets could have exerted their financial power in 2008 and drafted a high end pitching prospect like Tim Melville, who slipped all the way to the fourth round because of his demands and signed for $1.25m. Unlike Matz, Melville was a legit first round talent.

            The list goes on and on.

          22. oleosmirf

            2/9/2010-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)

            well that Omar has no control over.

  5. wannybackstra

    2/9/2010-8:53am at 8:53 am (UTC -4)

    Reply

    Given the timeframe analyzed it is still too soon for many high school players drafted to have reached the majors.

    Anyway, while the Mets’ percentages are in line with other teams, the quality of major leaguer has not been nearly as good as some of the other teams. There are no Troy Tulowitzkis, Ryan Brauns, Kershaws, Zimmermans, McCutchens or Lincecums in the Mets’ lot. We don’t even have someone as high end but slow to develop as Jay Bruce.

    Our best is Mike Pelfrey, who in my opinion is on par with Chris Volstad.

    The Phillies look the worst, by the way. But they can deal with that.

    1. ceetar

      2/9/2010-9:04am at 9:04 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      Can they deal with that? I’m starting to think the Phillies are going to slip back into obscurity.

      1. njstuckintx

        2/9/2010-9:11am at 9:11 am (UTC -4)

        Reply

        Let’s hope so!

      2. stickguy

        2/9/2010-9:16am at 9:16 am (UTC -4)

        Reply

        They have a couple year window left. After that, they could easily crash and burn back into mediocrity, where they spent at least 90% of their long history. And a couple of key injuries this year or next, and they won’t even get the 2 years.

    2. stickguy

      2/9/2010-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      But isn’t Pelf the Mets only true high draft pick in that time frame?

      No Troy Tulowitzkis, Ryan Brauns, Kershaws, Zimmermans, McCutchens or Lincecums makes sense, since all (or at least most that I saw skimming through!) were top-10 picks (some top 5) like Lince, Braun, and Tulo. I hope those guys are better than a 4th round pick!

  6. njstuckintx

    2/9/2010-9:06am at 9:06 am (UTC -4)

    Reply

    I think it needs to be taken into consideration which of these prospects have actually made the majors. As an example, the Astros… Bud Norris is the only player who may make an impact, mainly due to a pitching depth worse than the Mets. Manzella projects to be their staring SS, but had the Astros signed Cora, Cora would be their starting shortstop, at least for the interem. He could turn out to be something, but doesn’t show a high ceiling. And Chris Johnson is an exception running back, from what I hear.

    I guess the point I am getting at is that there are much worse situations out there than the Mets. I definitely agree that the minors has been depleted and not ranked very high, but I believe part of that is perception. Not many would have put Murphy on anyone’s radar, and he’s turned out to be at the very least a cubic zyrconium in the rough. Minaya could have done much better, but hind sight, as they say… is Mad Dog 20/20.

    1. njstuckintx

      2/9/2010-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      I guess my point here is similar to Wannys mentioned above. Quality of players who have actually made the majors.

      1. stickguy

        2/9/2010-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)

        Reply

        and like I noted back to Wanny, the real studs in that list were top 5 or 10 picks. Something the Mets did not have, other than Pelf, who has been reasonably successful (in an up and down kind of way).

        This year hopefully the Mets get a grade-A stud with their #7 pick, and slot be damned!

        1. wannybackstra

          2/9/2010-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)

          Reply

          This list aside, the Mets have generally not drafted well. Remember, with the years examined here you don’t expect all of the players who will be players to have already reached the majors.

          Just looking at where some prospects would rank today, in 2008 the following players drafted in the first round alone after Reese Havens are all likely held in higher regard: Christian Friedrich (the guy many thought the Mets would take rather than even Ike Davis), Daniel Schlereth, Gerrit Cole (might be #1 this season), Lonnie Chisenhall, Casey Kelly. This doesn’t mean that Havens won’t be good. It just means that early on these players look like they will be better — and in some cases (Kelly) significantly better.

          in 2007 Eddie Kunz was an awful pick and Nathan Vineyard selected right after him seems equally awful (both for injury and makeup). Picks in their vicinity included Justin Jackson, Michael Burgess and Nick Hagadone.

          in 2006 Mulvey was taken just in front of trevor cahill, possibly because Cahill was thought of as a difficult sign (commitment to Dartmouth). Justin Masterson and Connor Gillespie were both available, as well.

          1. trs86

            2/9/2010-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)

            I think there has been a slight change in philosophy since the Kunz draft. I think they have (hope!) seen their ways and have started to improve their drafts. I don’t guess we will know for a few years if that is the case.

  7. realitychuck

    2/9/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)

    Reply

    That’s a pretty sensational headline for an extremely mundane set of data.

    Ultimately, the numbers show the Mets have had nine fewer picks than the mean. It also looks like about 5% of all picks make it to the majors. Thus, if the Mets had had 20 more picks, one more player, on average, would have made it to the majors. Maybe two, if they were lucky. And, of course, many of the players who make it to the majors are not really stars, or even regulars.

    So, ultimately, this data shows absolutely nothing. The lack of two players is not destroying the team and those they got via free agency (e.g., Beltran, Wagner, Rodriguez) helped them more than any draft picks would have.

    1. stickguy

      2/9/2010-9:20am at 9:20 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      and they actually had 10 more picks, they just passed on using them (obviously late round!), so add them back, and they are almost smack on the mean.

    2. trs86

      2/9/2010-9:26am at 9:26 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      Actually the data indeed does show something. It shows that Omar is NOT destroying the Mets via FA and the draft.

      By the way, welcome.

      1. Mr North Jersey

        2/9/2010-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)

        Reply

        I agree (Yeouch!!! that lightning packs a mean punch) :-P

      2. oleosmirf

        2/9/2010-10:14am at 10:14 am (UTC -4)

        Reply

        it also shows how little prospects matter in baseball compared to other sports. The percentage of making it to the big leagues is so low compared to the other sports.

        Ive always questioned why prosepcts like Flores, Marte, F-Mart (of years past) are held in such high regard when they still havent played past class A.

        I mean suppose the Mets could have Zack Grienke for Flores, F-Mart, Niese, and Mejia. Would you make that trade??

        1. GravediggerHebner

          2/9/2010-10:25am at 10:25 am (UTC -4)

          Reply

          I think you’ve drawn a quite reasonable conclusion.

          Honestly, less than a week ago I placed a tremendously high value on prospects (a/k/a minor leaguers) and fretted about not having enough of them and losing the few we do have.

          After researching and writing the pieces on “star for prospect” trades and this one, I no longer value them as much and have switched to the dark side of “get what you can” for them, at least via trade. Hell, even Scott Kazmir while good hasn’t exactly won multiple Cy Youngs while embellishing Hall of fame credentials.

          I still do feel that signing Type A free agents should be done wisely, I don’t think signing a 38 year old anything (Moises Alou anyone?) to a 2 year contract is a good use of the early round draft pick that gets taken away. But guys in the 27-31 age range who can reasonably be expected to provide you with “Type A” quality for 3-5 years should almost always be signed given how seldom any one team’s first round pick turns into one of those guys.

          1. oleosmirf

            2/9/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)

            for example look at the Santana trade.

            Deolis Guerra has been bad in the minors since, Mulvey has been alright but was terrible in his cup of coffee, Carlos Gomez has been ok but nothing special and Phil Humber never panned out.

            Its just ive always had the mentality that if the prospect(s) prob wont be better than what your trading for then it should be a no-brainer to make the move

          2. GravediggerHebner

            2/9/2010-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)

            I hear you. I didn’t have that mentality you describe, rather I was ruled by fear that the prospect I lost would become better than the player I got back. But in baseball and in life, being ruled by fear is not a good thing and doesn’t lead to much quality of baseball or of life.

            Time for my bungee jump now.

          3. wannybackstra

            2/9/2010-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)

            Make sure you go head first or that harness will have you singing soprano for weeks.

  8. GravediggerHebner

    2/9/2010-9:29am at 9:29 am (UTC -4)

    Reply

    As I type this the comments have reached the # 7 so first I will say “yes” it is a pretty sensational headline for a mundane set of data. Can’t argue with that. Blogs, newspapers and TV shows all do it every day. It was also a question, and my first sentence was “you decide.” Very “FOXy” of me.

    It’s a very deep set of data which only scratches the surface as most of you have noted. I have decided nothing for you. Many of you are at work and can’t give it the depth of attention it requires to draw any conclusions. That’s fair. This piece asks a lot of it’s reader.

    Many of you have touched on the other variables above, variables I barely hinted at. It’s not just the number of players who have reached the majors, it’s the quality of them and it’s the quality of the players signed as free agents that the teams gave away their picks for.

    If for example the Mets lost a 1st round pick because they signed a young, talented player like Carlos Beltran that strikes me as a worthy loss of a draft pick, while I question for example the Giants loss of early picks in signing older marginal players such as Mike Matheny or Omar Vizquel.

    I wasn’t leading you to any conclusion with my headline, I was asking you a question. I believe the answer to the question is no. Any who inferred that I was trashing Omar with this piece 1) is wrong, I think it praises him in comparison most of the other GMs, and 2) didn’t really read the piece and understand that it wasn’t a conclusion so much as a tool for anyone who cared to take the time to draw one.

    1. Mr North Jersey

      2/9/2010-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      Grave once again great work.

      I have admit when compared to the other NL teams all things considered Minaya doesn’t look as bad.

      I agree that Minaya due to free agent acquisitions has not had high draft picks in past years but I did expect to see better results from him with player signings from the Dominican Republic. I remember him saying that signing Pedro Martinez would greatly help in that capacity. Hopefully this year players like Mejiia and FMart will start paying off.

      1. GravediggerHebner

        2/9/2010-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)

        Reply

        I think your appraisal of the alleged “Domincan Pipeline” that Pedro was supposed to provide is a fair one. We haven’t really seen results from it, but many of the players signed as a result were 16 when signed so are mostly in the 19-21 range now and probably need a bit more “cooking.”

        1. Mr North Jersey

          2/9/2010-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)

          Reply

          Mmmm…. Nothing like some good old “Moro de Gandules” with a “bistec ensebollado” to kick things off.

          Here’s to Dominican cooking done right.

          1. GravediggerHebner

            2/9/2010-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)

            And here’s to ordering it delivered instead of going out in a cab to pick it up yourself in the middle of the night.

    2. trs86

      2/9/2010-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      One more thing to consider with why draft picks ARE important. They are great trade chips. If you have a “good” farm system AND are a large market team you can trade those picks for guys like Johan, Halladay, etc. Thus a team like the Mets when you take out 12 prospects for 2 trades it does leave the cupboard kind of bare for the next trade.

      1. GravediggerHebner

        2/9/2010-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)

        Reply

        Yes, but when signing Type A free agents and losing your early picks (1st round or if protected then 2nd round) you’re not necessarily dampening your ability to pull of those types of trades.

        In the Santana example the prospects traded were 2 international free agents (Guerra, Gomez), a 1st round pick 3rd overall (Humber) which was protected due to the Mets poor record the year before so they wouldn’t have lost it even if they’d signed a Type A, and a second round pick (Mulvey) who while being a 2nd round pick was the Mets “first pick” because they lost their 1st rounder to the Phillies (Kyle Drabek) for signing Billy Wagner.

        1. trs86

          2/9/2010-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)

          Reply

          No you are right. I was mentioning mostly from the fact that every pick is depth and a trading chip. You can’t trade 12 guys and then expect to still have guys left to trade for someone else.

          1. GravediggerHebner

            2/9/2010-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)

            Fair point.

    3. CaseStreet

      2/9/2010-1:49pm at 1:49 pm (UTC -4)

      Reply

      Great stuff grave.

      Looks to me like we should only sign the true elite of FAs who will stay w/ the team for a while, ala Beltran and Bay and not waste our time w/ the Ollie and Alou’s of the world.

      At the same time, we shouldn’t be scared of letting our non-elite players go elsewhere to collect draft picks.

      Also, though, having good scouts is essential to picking the next David Wright.

  9. Mr North Jersey

    2/9/2010-10:28am at 10:28 am (UTC -4)

    Reply

    Guys it is being reported by MC that According to Adam Rubin in the Daily News,“The height of Citi Field’s center-field wall will be sliced in half, making the ballpark more homer-friendly.”

    Yet when I go to the link provided all I find is “Mets officials are considering removing the second level of padding in center field to make the wall eight feet in the area Carlos Beltran patrols.”

    Chalk it up to a typo on MC’s part?

    1. wannybackstra

      2/9/2010-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      I saw the story on the NYDN Web site.

    2. Mr North Jersey

      2/9/2010-10:40am at 10:40 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      I got it he used wrong link. Typical
      http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2010/02/09/2010-02-09_low_and_behold.html

      1. Mr North Jersey

        2/9/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)

        Reply

        If I read it right it is just that section where the Apple is over the 408 sign.

    3. ceetar

      2/9/2010-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)

      Reply

      nothing to do with home runs though, cosmetic and just around the apple.

      1. wannybackstra

        2/9/2010-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)

        Reply

        When I first glanced at this post I thought it referenced cosmetic work around the nipple.

      2. GravediggerHebner

        2/9/2010-10:48am at 10:48 am (UTC -4)

        Reply

        Do I understand correctly that the only part being removed is the rectangle that is basically right in front of the apple? That’s what I get both from reading the DN article and your comment here. If so then I agree with you, nothing much to do with HR in that. Yet another misleading sensational headline today…

      3. Mr North Jersey

        2/9/2010-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)

        Reply

        If you look at this image
        http://www.stadiumpage.com/citifield/Citi_032909_22.jpg
        It looks like they will be lining it up with the bullpen fencing.

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