This article was inspired by Jayson Stark’s piece written for ESPN. In it, Stark states that the Nationals were among three teams to have the best off-season in terms of free agent acquisitions. Consequently, he jumped all over the Mets and picked to be in the top three of having the worst off-season. I disagree with Starks anaylsis regarding the off season of the Mets. By the way, the Dodgers topped the list with the worst off season, the Pirates were listed second.
But I do agree with half of what Stark stated, the Nationals had a great off-season and I give them a lot of credit. They are spending money and have improved their team tremendously-but it was done with journeymen. Now, I don’t want to put water on a team that has improved, but are  the Nationals playoff bound? I know one thing, they sure could have make themselves a thorn in the side the Mets. Maybe now they have made themselves a thorn in the entire N.L East as well. Good for them.  As I see it, the Nationals are a team that can win a lot more.  Â
However, I think the Nationals have set themselves up to be more than dangerous in seasons to come rather than 2010.  As of right now, The Nationals look more like the Tampa Rays of 2004-5. If they are handled the right way, they could be contenders within 3 to 4 years.   Â
And here’s how.
It all begins with Stephan Strasburg who should not be pitching in the majors until he is absolutely ready. Using him as are starting point, the Nationals should do everything in their power to make sure that Wang, Bruney, Villone and Marquis have solid pitching performances. The better they pitch, the more attractive trade bait they become and if done the right way, these guys can turn the National Farm System into a who’s who of great prospects.  Come the trade deadline, the Nationals can clean up, especially if Wang returns to form. He could fetch at least 2 good prospects if anything. Think about it, if Wang can pitch, wouldn’t you like to see him on the Mets?  Especially if a starter goes down and were in the playoff hunt? If these players are performing above expectations, why not cash in? What about I-Rod?  You know somewhere in this league a team is going to need a catcher with some experience. The same would apply to Adam Kennedy. All the Nationals have to do is wait and hope that these players stay healthy. I would even go as far as trading Zimmerman, who could really be at peak value this year.  When the trade deadline comes along, the Nats could be sitting pretty and getting ready for a feeding frenzy. They play their cards right and they can get themselves a nice young, cheap team.  All they have to do is wait for them to  mature.
Florida did this years ago and it took them to a World Championship, Tampa followed suit and now it looks like the Pirates are buying into it as well. If the Nationals try to run their team using the same blueprint, we might see that Presidents Race done in October.
41 comments
stickguy
2/24/2010-8:23am at 8:23 am (UTC -4)
yup
prismo
2/24/2010-8:35am at 8:35 am (UTC -4)
The Nationals are not a good baseball team.
Last season their record was 59-103.
Will this year’s team win more games? I’d almost bank on it.
Will this year’s team finish over .500? I’d heavily bet against it.
70-75 wins might be realistic.
ceetar
2/24/2010-8:37am at 8:37 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. I think this puts more pressure on the Phillies if anything, because they’re a team that thrives on winning streaks carried by their offense, and if there are more good pitchers in the division, there are more road blocks for them.
The Nationals will win another 10 games easily, but not that much more. They improved, but those same guys won’t have improved most clubs.
jaded1983
2/24/2010-10:05am at 10:05 am (UTC -4)
This.
This is the most important part of the nationals improving. Everyone is saying the Mets have Santana and then a bunch of question marks and #4 starters, which is true, but doesnt Philly have the same thing?
Halladay – no question there
Hamels – does he pitch like a WS MVP in 2010, or like last year with a mid 4 ERA?
Blanton – mid rotation, nothing special, will keep you in the game (Pelfrey from last year?)
JA Happ – sophmore slump? Can he repeat his great performance from alst year?
Moyer – again, will he pitch like he did in ’08 or like he did in ’09?
The Nats improving will take wins away from everyone, but I agree that it does put more pressure on the Phils for the reason that Ceetar mentioned. Plus the phils are now the ones with the target on their backs….not us.
metsfan4decades
2/24/2010-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
My opinion? The Nats might have improved but not enough to be a competing team in the NL east this year.
Might make it harder to beat them though, which will have an effect on the rest of the team’s records.
trs86
2/24/2010-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
It might make them harder to beat 1/5 times with Marquis instead of some scrub not in the majors but that’s about all I see. Kennedy and Pudge are not that much of an improvement over what they had. Especially factoring in age and potential decline.
darknova306
2/24/2010-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
Last season the Mets batted .390/.435/.488 against Marquis (only 2 starts, but still). Bring him on!
trs86
2/24/2010-8:57am at 8:57 am (UTC -4)
I just don’t see how they have improved that much if any. Perhaps they win more because it’s hard to keep losing that many. But a thorn in the Mets side? I guess they could steal some wins again but they have done that against the Mets, Braves, and Phillies before. They are still terrible and will remain that way.
darknova306
2/24/2010-9:08am at 9:08 am (UTC -4)
But they now have Jason “Cy Young” Marquis! His teams never miss the postseason!
It’s silly how people are so willing to gush over the Nationals adding some mediocre players, but they say we’re awful with all the talent we’ve got. Considering how much we owned Marquis last year, I can’t wait to face him in ’10.
njstuckintx
2/24/2010-9:10am at 9:10 am (UTC -4)
I would have to say they have improved tremendously, actually. That said, it’s like putting a beautiful new deck on you double wide trailer. It’s still a double wide trailer, but better. Yes they have improved and yes they probably did have one of the better offseasons in MLB. But geting a 50 percent raise is great, if you make a decent amount to start off with. Going from a dollar to a dollar fifty ain’t really cleaning up. So no, no playoffs for the Nats.
Now, as for trading Zimmerman… I would say that wouldn’t be smart. On a different level, it’s like trading Reyes. We could get a bunch back, and good players to boot, but it’s Reyes! Agreed that I would rather have Reyes than Zimmerman, but my point being is you don’t trade away promising, young, cheap stars. Didn’t we just do a big analysis in multiple parts about the positives/negatives on the return of what you get for trading superstars? And didn’t we agree that more times than not that doesn’t work out? No, Zimmerman isn’t a superstar, yet. But if we consider Wright to be a superstar or something close, Zimmerman isn’t that far behind.
trs86
2/24/2010-9:20am at 9:20 am (UTC -4)
OK hold on I must be missing something. How did they improve tremendously?
njstuckintx
2/24/2010-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
From what they were to what they are now, they are tremendously better. I’m not saying they are on the level of the Mets or Braves or Phillies or such. I’m saying compared to what they were to what they are now, that is a major improvement. Hence the deck on the double wide analogy.
trs86
2/24/2010-9:33am at 9:33 am (UTC -4)
Again what did they do to improve tremendously?
Marquis, Kennedy and Capps?
They were a terrible defensive team last year and that was what really held them back. They have made no moves other than an OLD Pudge to improve that.
I just don’t see it.
njstuckintx
2/24/2010-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
Maybe it’s just how you view the word tremendous. When you go from what they were fielding last year to adding Marquis, Kennedy, Capps, Wang, Rodriguez, & Guardado, that is a tremendous improvement. Plus you have Strasberg coming into the mix.
I know you aren’t adding pujols and lee and hallady, but you have to take this in terms of where they were to where they look to be now.
trs86
2/24/2010-9:56am at 9:56 am (UTC -4)
Wang we don’t even know if he can pitch yet nor how long it will be. He was terrible last year when he did pitch and has not been good since 2007.
Marquis is average at best.
Kennedy had OPS’s under .700 2 out of the last 3 years.
Capps was terrible. 1.65 WHIP and ERA close to 6.
Pudge? seriously?
Guardado? as much as I like him he was brought in on a minor league deal and thought about retiring because no one wanted him.
They have taken some risk on some guys who could be high reward but it could also blow up in their face.
njstuckintx
2/24/2010-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
Would saying that they are horrible instead of putrid make you feel better? Look at what they had compared to what they have now. That’s all I’m saying.
trs86
2/24/2010-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
Not really. To me the only spot that they IMPROVED at was Marquis.
Kennedy will put up about what their 2B did last year.
Pudge may not even put up what their catchers did last year. In fact he did not last year in the AL for part of the year.
Their closer position actually had better stats last year as well.
Again it will depend on if those guys rebound or continue unlikely success.
The only reason I think the Nats will be better has nothing to do with their off-season but more to do with the fact that some of their better young guys could come to the majors and make a difference this year. It certainly won’t be because of Pudge, Kennedy and Capps.
stickguy
2/24/2010-9:13am at 9:13 am (UTC -4)
keep in mind, if the Nats add 20 wins to their total (not an easy thing to do, but the Mets will this year!) they still finish 79 wins, so still below .500. At least the Mets would be in the 90s!
saltygary
2/24/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
But adding 20 wins takes away wins from other teams especially in the NL East. Why it’s significant is there are no slouches in the East and the teams need to earn every win.
udontmesswthejohan
2/24/2010-9:38am at 9:38 am (UTC -4)
This is Stark trying to pick the “Dark Horse” so he ends up looking like a genius at the end of the year a la Nate Silver and the Rays.
The truth of the matter is that this isn’t the NBA and teams don’t make those drastic jumps, at least not ordinarily.
Are they improved? No doubt, but it’s ridiculous to say that they will finish ahead of the Mets.
DNDJohan aka kistics
2/24/2010-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
I agree. Rays had young talents. Nats have some young talents, but I’m not sure if many of them are Major league ready. Otherwise, Nats have signed Veteran guys, but don’t have nearly the talent that the Mets have. IF healthy, the Mets are a good team.
Mr North Jersey
2/24/2010-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
Interesting post Gonzowill, I went over to our friend Mark at http://www.centerfieldgate.com/ the Nationals Fan blog and here are some excerpts about his opinions on some of the Nats signings.
Jason Marquis
The “Jason is good but not great†label and even “too inconsistent†(a puzzling tag given him by Cubs whiner Lou Piniella) shouldn’t bother the Nats, who need all kinds of things: an innings eater (Marquis consumed 216 frames last year with the Heltons), a mentor for their young pitching staff (he’s 31, they’re 14), someone who throws down in the zone (he’s a ground ball wizard), a history of good health (he has only flirted with the DL) , an experienced hand with all the right role models (Greg Maddux!) and an all around good citizen (three kids, one wife, no Milton Bradley software). There are things not to like about Marquis, I suppose: he’s not Walter Johnson (and never will be), but he’s also not Daniel Cabrera. And he will come into Washington as the number one guy on the staff — something he’s never been. Then too, the Nats and Rizzo have been navigating the league’s treacherous off-season waters not only with sophistication (the Brian Bruney pick-up gives them a solid back-of-the-rotation stopper), but with something approaching actual insight. Rizzo has deftly ticked off a list of must-haves that, in the space of one month, has remade the team into a middle-of-the standings .500 club that has given the Nats something approaching league-wide respectability, something they haven’t had since the middle-of-the-decade.
http://www.centerfieldgate.com/baseball/a-marquis-signing
Matt Capps
With the signing of Capps, Nats fans will go into the Christmas holidays knowing that (while everything else might collapse), the ballclub’s end-of-game options will include a set of potential closers that includes a young Yankee, a steady Bucco and (perhaps) an ageless wonder. Coupled with Burnett and Clippard, the Nats’ bullpen seems stronger now than it has since the departure of sore-armed closer Chad Cordero, felled by a labrum tear back in 2007.
http://www.centerfieldgate.com/baseball/another-bullpen-arm-capps-signs-with-nats
Adam Kennedy
In truth (and though it might sound like sour grapes), Kennedy matches up well with Hudson. If the stars line up right, this could be the one signing that team looks back on as Mike Rizzo’s best off-season move. Both Kennedy and Hudson have a reputation for hard play and good gloves, both have experience on playing for winning clubs — and both are ready to recover their careers after suffering through sometimes strange interludes of simply not showing up. Last year, Kennedy hit .289 with 11 home runs, 63 RBIs and 20 stolen bases in 129 games for the Athletics, but during the previous three seasons his presence and play were spotty – and only partly because he was slowed by injuries. His offensive numbers were mediocre. Maybe this was because in his last year in Anaheim (in 2004), Kennedy started swinging for the fences: his average plummeted, his on-field presence seemed an afterthought, and teams started losing interest. He tried to straighten that out last year: with positive results.
This is a good signing, and while a lot of Nats’ watchers might have preferred Hudson, Kennedy is a solid glove man at a good price. And honestly, if Hudson’s wrist acts up and if Kennedy can play more than the 129 games he logged last year, then this decision could turn into another Rizzo miracle.
http://www.centerfieldgate.com/american-league-central/kennedy-now-a-nat
GravediggerHebner
2/24/2010-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
I do think it’s unquestionable that the Nats have improved. I will not attach an adjective to their improvement so I don’t get sidetracked in an “is your adjective appropriate or not” debate.
I think any suggestion that they will be a threat to any of the other 4 teams in the division is either just dumb or to garner attention. They will be improved, but not enough, and none of the other 4 teams got “as worse” as the Nats got better. Barring catastrophic injuries to the other division foes it’s 5th place again for the Nats but with signs that 5th place won’t be their permanent domain for the balance of the decade.
njstuckintx
2/24/2010-10:57am at 10:57 am (UTC -4)
I tremendously agree with you.
It is funny how the Fish and the Nats are getting love and the Mets aren’t. Yet, go check the Vegas Odds, and the Mets are not super longshots. I’d have to say I trust the odds makers more than I would all the “sports analysts” out there in todays landscape.
Kingman 26
2/24/2010-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
The oddsmakers lose their jobs if they mess up; when Olney and Heyman and Rosenthal literally make s**t up about us having no money and stuff like the totally bogus Torrealba thing, they get better ratings.
I am sure Heyman still thinks that Molina will sign with us any minute, I am sure Rosenthal thinks the Wilpons took out loans to afford Barajas, and I am sure Olney is simply just a pathologically dishonest guy.
I think ESPN’s spring training preview series has Olney on the Mets today….should be fun!
Mr North Jersey
2/24/2010-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
What no adjective? I’m so disappointed.
GravediggerHebner
2/24/2010-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
As far as the suggestion to trade Ryan Zimmerman (since it was 1 “n” and since Jordan Zimmermann is on the 60 day DL I assume you weren’t referring to Jordan) I understand the concept but don’t think it’s appropriate for the Nats in their position (unless they have a stud 3B coming through their system which I simply don’t know).
NJinTX above brought up the comparison of the Mets trading Reyes regarding the Nats trading Zimmerman. I think the Nats situation is different. If the Mets ever got around to trading Reyes it would be because the team was underachieving and disappointing and to restock the system. The Nats are not actually or even just perceived to be good enough that anything they do will be disappointing or an underachievement. They are still on the rise and the Nats trading Zimmerman makes far less sense to me than the Mets trading Reyes which is also not an idea I am in love with but given the difference in talent and expectation of the respective teams I think neither trade is likely but the Mets trading Reyes is slightly more reasonable a possibility.
Kingman 26
2/24/2010-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
Nats will surely be improved, and in this division will surely finish 5th.
trs86
2/24/2010-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
I guess my beef is that how in the hell do they get votes for most improved and we get votes for least improved.
Their offseason and ours boils down to Marquis vs Bay.
Kingman 26
2/24/2010-11:50am at 11:50 am (UTC -4)
If it is Marquis vs Bay, we win!!
I still ask anyone who has not examined Marquis’ stats to do so…NEVER in the top ten in a positive cstegory, and LOADS of top tens in HR, walks, etc. He sucks, and sucks hard and long.
trs86
2/24/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
He is an improvement over at least one of their 5 SP from last year so I guess that is indeed an improvement.
But seriously how did they have a better off-season. I am missing it.
prismo
2/24/2010-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
They lost Nick Johnson too…
trs86
2/24/2010-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
And still have a TERRIBLE defense.
Kingman 26
2/24/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Good point….and no more Milledge!
The Nats made a bunch of moves, but all added together, will they have as much impact as Bay might for us? Marquis isn’t even THAT much of an innings-eater. He sucks. The fact that he is an improvement and a big deal for them shows how horrid they really have been.
I just think the media largely loves a small-market underdog (Tampa, Minn, etc) and hates the Mets.
I don’t care at all….the champagne will taste…well, you know how it will taste.
Mr North Jersey
2/24/2010-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
I think considering the financial resources the Nats had available to them they did a lot with a little. I think the Nats are more about the moves as a whole rather than dissecting them individually.
Pudge while not great brings a wealth of knowledge to a relatively young staff and that is without adding Strasburg. Plus Flores will benefit from having Pudge their as well.
Marquis is the same thing while an average pitcher he brings experience that can hopefully benefit the team.
I think that the perception is that the Nats because they made a lot of moves considering that they were a 59 win team they should be much better now. If that is the case we will see. Also add taking a chance on Wang the Nats are showing their fanbase that while they don’t have the financial where with all that the big clubs have they are trying to put a better product on the field.
Yes they didn’t sign players of Bay’s caliber but these are the Nats were talking about. On the flipside considering the financial resources the Mets have they fell way below many people’s expectations of what they thought the Mets were going to do.
Are the Nats moves going to make them an 81 win team? I don’t know.
trs86
2/24/2010-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
I can tell you their “moves” have not made them an 81 win team. If they improve at all really it will be because their youth is better. Not because of the scrubs they signed.
Mr North Jersey
2/24/2010-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
Ok your opinion has been noted I’m sure many agree with that assessment.
I don’t know what a Marquis or Capps or Pudge or Wang will do if I could I’d be raking in money betting on player projections.
Do I expect a player like Capps to have a big year? no, but I said the same about Lidge the year that Lidge went an entire season without blowing a save. So I’ll just let it play out and see what the Nats do this season.
GravediggerHebner
2/24/2010-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
Not sure where to put this so here we are:
I just read about 25 articles, tweets and even an official press release regarding the Mets signing of Rod Barajas. Not one of them mentions anything about who is being removed from the (to the best of my knowledge full) 40 man roster to fit him in.
Do any of you guys know anything about that? Can you tweet your connections and ask? Please? Thank you.
Kingman 26
2/24/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
Good point….sorry Case, but how about Figgy? We know no one else would pick him up….
trs86
2/24/2010-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, Case will come running.
I think there was some even more dead weight on the 40 man.
Mr North Jersey
2/24/2010-1:06pm at 1:06 pm (UTC -4)
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/02/nationals-reach-agreement-with-livan-hernandez.html