While it is hard to imagine 8-10 pitchers in the league that are better than Johan Santana, Yahoo has ranked him #9, and ESPN at #11 among Major League pitchers entering the fantasy season. That means based on most league formats, he should be drafted in the late 3rd or even early 4th rounds. So, why so late?
Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN wrote an interesting article last week published here:
analyzing Johan’s declining stats. He breaks down the relation between Johan’s escalating ”contact rate on swings” with his diminishing strikeout ratio over the last few seasons. His average velocity was a career low 90.5 mph last year making the difference between his fastball and his devastating change-up a lot less significant. In essence, according to these statistics, hitters are seeing the ball better against Johan. Add to that 2 surgeries, although one of which he recovered from with a Cy Young the following year, suspect run support, and even more suspect defense, and maybe these fantasy rankings are justified.
However, looking at the competition, I have Mr. Santana a bit higher on my board.  The top 3 are arguably Lincecum, Halladay and King Felix,  and I expect Zack Greinke to continue his dominance fresh off his first Cy Young…I’ll take him fourth. Adam Wainwright could have easily won that honor for the NL last year coming just 1 win shy of 20 with a miniscule 2.63 ERA for the Cards..Ill take him 5th. Big CC ended the year21-6 (including the playoffs), and is as good a candidate as any for a 20 win season with the Bombers..7th.Â
The SI proclaimed "Best Pitcher in Baseball" is 4th on my list this year
The next names consist of Dan Haren, Chis Carpenter, Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander, and Josh Johnson. Here is the limit of the effect of all that Cockcroft research. In Haren, Carpenter, and Verlander you have 3 veteran starters who are all coming off stellar years yet again, but who’s ceiling has most likely already been exposed. We have probably seen the best of these guys..and although it’s impressive, none of these guys are Johan Santana….especially considering Carpenter was MIA in ’07 and ’08, Verlander’s ’08 was about as ugly as it gets going 11-17, and Haren’s loss column could hit double digits for the 4th time in his career pitching for a young inexperienced DBack team. Santana hasn’t had years like that.Â
Was Verlander's '08 a fluke? Why take the chance?
Josh Johnson will have a brilliant year in Florida most likely, fresh off his new contract, but I got to see another full year out of him before I put him in front of Johan. If Cliff Lee continues pitching like he did in the second half of last year and into the playoffs, then he’ll have another Cy Young, but I don’t think he can continue at this torrid pace. Santana is my 7th pitcher taken.
Where will you guys draft him?
6 comments
stickguy
3/1/2010-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
Just put the draft board on autopilot.
Saves a ton of time~!
j/k BTW.
GravediggerHebner
3/1/2010-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
I play in a league that counts WHIP and K/BB among the 10 pitching stats it uses rotisserie style, and in that context Haren leaps up the board as he’s a total stud in those categories recently but Johan while being very good in them isn’t as good as Haren and given their different ages I have to believe Haren will continue to win those categories. Haren will probably have the higher ERA but I think they are similar enough in the remaining categories I use to make Haren the winner based on his WHIP, K/BB and total K numbers all three of which I believe he will do better in than Johan.
ceetar
3/1/2010-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll take Santana near the top, and ahead of Halladay (based on the Mets taking him down 2-3 times, age, and CBP), Greinke, and Wainwright. I’d take him ahead of CC too based on the stats (like home runs given up?) given the park.
metsfan4decades
3/1/2010-5:48pm at 5:48 pm (UTC -4)
Slow day in Met land….
Did you see the comments from Strawberry on Mejia?
You know how something happens every spring that no one expects?” Strawberry said. “I already know what it is this year … that Mejia kid. Did you see him today?”
Everyone had the opportunity to see Jenrry Mejia, the 20-year-old right-hander who can’t be ignored, even in a camp with 29 other pitchers. But Strawberry saw something no one else in the Mets camp could see. Fifteen years after the first one, he saw Mariano Rivera in the pre-natal stage. And he couldn’t help himself. Few people understand as well as Strawberry how unfair and dangerous comparisons and stated expectations can be. But there he was, comparing a 20-year-old with 210 innings as a professional to an all-time bullpen deity.
“I know, I know,” Strawberry said. “But did you see his ball move? Awesome. That ball cuts. It’s natural, too.” Then he lowered his voice, lest he share his observation with the world. “I honestly can say I’ve never seen anyone else throw a pitch like that except for Mariano.”
“He could do the same things Mariano’s done with that pitch — it moves so much,” Strawberry said. “I mean, do they know what they have here?”
Mejia struck out two and allowed one hit in his first game appearance at the most challenging level spring games can present.
“Even the pitches that weren’t where he wanted them,” Strawberry said, “they moved like not many others. He’s got a natural gift. What an arm!”
trs86
3/1/2010-7:01pm at 7:01 pm (UTC -4)
I feel happy!
metsfan4decades
3/1/2010-5:53pm at 5:53 pm (UTC -4)
Dave Lennon on Wheelhouse:
- Doesn’t see the Reyes/FBI thing as any kind of distraction.
- Niese is the front runner for 5th starter. Baring injury, count on it.
- On Castillo: he can’t understand why fans are down on this guy now. He was not the problem last year. He was adequate. He doesn’t think he’s going to be the albatross a lot of fans think he will be.
- Lennon thinks Nieve is looking good for the 8th inning guy. Funny – John Harper on DNL thought it would be Parnell. Transalation: no one knows right now.
- Lennon said this team is good for 88 wins. Doesn’t know where that puts them for a post season appearance but should have no problem winning 88.