Many have suggested in recent weeks that the Mets alter their usual batting order, pushing Reyes back to the 3rd spot in the lineup. I don’t think this is a terrible idea, as he may very well be more productive at that spot. However, along with that suggestion comes the notion that two of Pagan/Matthews, Murphy, and Castillo will bat 1st and 2nd in the lineup.
The issue comes up when you compare season total plate appearances with a team’s spot in the batting order. Take a look at last year’s comparison for the Mets below.
A lot of people look at creating a batting order as solely picking the best order in terms of the various talents of each player. But there’s another aspect, which is the steep descent of plate appearances as you progress through the batting order. Check out the comparison between batting 1st and 8th – we’re looking at 123 less PAs throughout the season! That’s 16% less times at the plate for the 8th hitter, which is huge in the course of a 162 game season. While creating a lineup that fully utilizes the talent of a team’s players, we should also consider this…and weight a lineup with the stronger players toward the top and the weaker players toward the bottom.
Honestly, there may not be better options in the lineup while Beltran’s out than placing Pagan/GMJ/Murphy/Castillo in the 1 and 2 spots, which hurts a little to admit. I’d much rather see a player with a higher SLG than .346 get 16% more plate appearances than Castillo, for example. Castillo’s decent OBP may have more meaning earlier in the lineup, but is it worth sacrificing extra home runs and doubles from even a modestly better hitter for that added meaning? I’m not sure what the answer is, and maybe it all evens out and none of this matters, but it’s something to keep in mind while creating your lineups!
290 comments
darknova306
3/3/2010-8:06am at 8:06 am (UTC -4)
Are there statistics for how many runners are on base per PA as a function of position in the batting order? It seems to me that lack of SLG% is less relevent in the 1-2 spots because they see fewer runners on base in front of them. I’d rather have OBP and speed in those spots and save the 2B/3B/HRs for the 3-4-5 hitters. You could probably make a stats thesis just on analyzing a batting order like this. :p
prismo
3/3/2010-8:10am at 8:10 am (UTC -4)
“Are there statistics for how many runners are on base per PA as a function of position in the batting order?” I’m not sure what you mean – could you clarify?
darknova306
3/3/2010-8:20am at 8:20 am (UTC -4)
Something like: on average there are 0.8 runners on base for each plate appearance that the number 1 hitter gets, 1.4 on base for each PA for the 2 hitter, etc etc. (Fractional numbers being due solely to this being an average) I’d be really curious to see numbers on that.
prismo
3/3/2010-8:25am at 8:25 am (UTC -4)
Ahhhh. Runners already on base when the batter comes to the plate. I don’t think that’s out there…
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-8:13am at 8:13 am (UTC -4)
Who are You and where is the real darknova?
Great comments today
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-8:35am at 8:35 am (UTC -4)
Great point, and yet ANOTHER argument for why Reyes should bat third!
joed1
3/3/2010-8:44am at 8:44 am (UTC -4)
I agree nova… I also like to look at it this way. Regardless if it’s just 2 months or the whole season, why would you want to give Daniel Murphy or GMJ more at-bats than Reyes, Wright or Bay? Over the course of a full season you are basically giving inferior players more at-bats than your supreme players. That and the fact you are giving away more outs.
trs86
3/3/2010-8:53am at 8:53 am (UTC -4)
So should Pujols bat 1st for the Cards?
No one wants Murphy or GMJ getting more ab’s.
We want Reyes, Wright and Bay’s AB’s to have the most meaning.
joed1
3/3/2010-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)
Of course not, but what on base skills lets you believe Murphy(.313 obp) or GMJ(.333 obp) should get those at-bats or that the 3-4-5 hitters will benefit by it? Wouldnt 3-4-5 hitters benefit more with Reyes/Castillo setting table, plus they would provide ample production of their own as we already seen before when Reyes was healthy?
trs86
3/3/2010-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
Who is mentioning with actually credit that GMJ or Murphy will be 1st or 2nd?
Right now we are saying Pagan, Castillo.
If it’s GMJR, Murphy then we have more problems than the lineup.
joed1
3/3/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
Just to add, I believe your 1-2 spots should be great OBP guys and speed would be a plus too, then your best OPS should be 3, best SLG 4, 5-7 based on next best ops and l/r balance.
trs86
3/3/2010-9:20am at 9:20 am (UTC -4)
So based on our team who right now has the best OPS’s?
Reyes, Wright, Bay?
Best SLG
Wright, Bay, Frenchy?
Best OBP
Castillo, Wright, Bay, Reyes, Pagan?
joed1
3/3/2010-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
I’m pretty sure best OPS would be Wright, Beltran, Bay.
Pre Beltran…
Reyes
Castillo
Wright
Bay
Pagan
Francouer
Murphy/Tatis
Barajas
Post Beltran…
Reyes
Castillo
Wright
Bay
Beltran
Francouer
Murphy/Tatis
Barajas
trs86
3/3/2010-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
Your lineups have nothing to do with who has the best OPS though for the lineup without Beltran.
Pagan has no history as an RBI guy, are you saying he would be more likely to drive in runs than Reyes?
trs86
3/3/2010-8:11am at 8:11 am (UTC -4)
There are formulas out there for this but to me that makes it too mechanical. All I know is that Pagan did well in the lead off spot, Castillo’s only advantage is he gets on base and Reyes has never had a great OBP. His best year was .358 which was 3 points higher than Castillo’s terrible 2008. However, his RBI totals have been great from the lead off spot as is his SLG. Do we really think that moving him to the 3rd spot is going to change his approach? What if waiting on pitches and trying to play the slap and get on philosophy has held him back? How will we know if he could become much more than just a lead off hitter?
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-8:15am at 8:15 am (UTC -4)
What I don’t get is how batting Reyes ” out of order” for 1 month is a real issue
prismo
3/3/2010-8:18am at 8:18 am (UTC -4)
Is the idea to put him back to leadoff when Beltran comes back? What if he’s kicking arse and taking names as the 3rd batter?
darknova306
3/3/2010-8:21am at 8:21 am (UTC -4)
If something is working right and clicking for the team, like Reyes batting 3rd, and Jerry changes it just to ‘set things the way they should be’, he should be fired on the spot.
stickguy
3/3/2010-8:22am at 8:22 am (UTC -4)
well, so if you want to “hide” castillo, the 8 hole is the best place!
I guess the art of lineup creation is putting one together that makes best use of the extra PAs. because if you just want the best hitter or OBP guy getting the most, DW should be your leadoff hitter.
prismo
3/3/2010-8:26am at 8:26 am (UTC -4)
Certainly not – there has to be a balance between the two ideas.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-8:32am at 8:32 am (UTC -4)
Stick buddy, we all have our personal players we detest, but Slappy’s BA, OBP, and amount of pitches seen clearly show that he can still be valuable hitting 1st or 2nd, and would be completely wasted hitting 8th.
trs86
3/3/2010-8:38am at 8:38 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. If clearing the pitcher is so important why is it that the NL average for the 8th spot has the 2nd lowest OBP.
trs86
3/3/2010-8:26am at 8:26 am (UTC -4)
Maybe this will help. Should make this a post.
Batting 1st the NL splits were: .273, .340, .402, .741 with 193 HR and 938 RBI.
2nd ,273, .338, .405, .743 210HR and 1122 RBI.
3rd .286, .373, .488, .862 433 HR, 1599 RBI
4th .258, .353, .482, .835 463 HR, 1767 RBI
5th .259, .334, .425, .759 338 HR, 1384 RBI
6th .259, .333, .423, .756 317 HR, 1248 RBI
7th .255, .319, .401, .719 266 HR, 1213 RBI
8th .253, .326, .371, .697 188 HR, 989 RBI
prismo
3/3/2010-8:29am at 8:29 am (UTC -4)
I’m actually looking at that right now! The number of HR and RBI should be divided by the number of teams though.
trs86
3/3/2010-8:32am at 8:32 am (UTC -4)
Problem is that it does not factor in other junk. League averages are
.272 .340 .402 .741 12 HR 59 RBI from 1st spot
trs86
3/3/2010-8:37am at 8:37 am (UTC -4)
2nd 13 HR 70 RBI
3rd 27 HR 100 RBI
4th 29 HR 110 RBI
5th 21 HR 87 RBI
6th 20 HR 78 RBI
7th 17 HR 76 RBI
8th 11 HR 62 RBI
prismo
3/3/2010-8:44am at 8:44 am (UTC -4)
Haha wow…the Mets hit so few HR last season.
8
7
15
18
16
10
15
3
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-8:31am at 8:31 am (UTC -4)
What in the world does the difference in plate appearances from the leadoff to the 8th spot have to do with anything? Nothing whatsover.
Every lineup I have seen suggests the clearly weaker players (Frenchy, Murph, Barajas) in the last three spots.
And who has been saying Murph should bat 2nd?
You can surely argue that Reyes should bat leadoff, but this argument does not really say anything at all.
Beltran should bat 2nd, which is where, after actually looking at his career stats, he has done best.
trs86
3/3/2010-8:33am at 8:33 am (UTC -4)
I still disagree with your assessment on Beltran but we really don’t even have to argue that point yet. LOL. That is the point. Right now it’s Reyes in the 3rd spot until Beltran gets back and then see what is working and where he is needed the most.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-8:38am at 8:38 am (UTC -4)
Have you looked at the numbers? It is all there and very easy to see at Baseball Reference.
Not a big difference, but a seriously great argument why he might do well batting 2nd…in addition, if what he did last year is an indication of a late-career improvement, that BA and OBP would make his batting 2nd even MORE appropriate, whether Jose hits 1st or 3rd…..
Not trying to be rude to Prismo, but the big point of the difference in PA between the 1 and 8 spots could really not have less relevance to ANY of these arguments.
trs86
3/3/2010-8:41am at 8:41 am (UTC -4)
Not saying it does. Just saying that I don’t agree with your idea of Beltran now being best as a #2 hitter. I think the last 3 years his game has changed. Again no reason to debate that yet. LOL. Lets save that discussion for when it matters.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-8:45am at 8:45 am (UTC -4)
Cannot argue with that!
I guess he needs to be able to run first!
prismo
3/3/2010-8:37am at 8:37 am (UTC -4)
Someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-8:43am at 8:43 am (UTC -4)
No, not at all…your argument is really meaningless.
Sorry pal.
I put a lot of thought into what I thought the lineup should be and your arguing that the top few spots get a lot more plate appearances that the bottom few is completely obvious and totally irrelevant.
And Castillo’s OBP was not “decent”—it was the 29th best of ALL MLB players last year.
Dispute and disagree with Jose batting 3rd all you want, but the above really says little and proves even less.
prismo
3/3/2010-8:48am at 8:48 am (UTC -4)
Well I’m not going to take the bait…but it’s no mystery why you get into so many altercations with your fellow commenters. Your reactions of disagreement come off as harsh and bitter. I know that it’s just you getting fired up, so I don’t take any of it to heart anymore, but it wouldn’t hurt to try and be more respectful.
Also…where did I dispute and disagree with Reyes batting 3rd? I actually don’t mind it, and think Castillo may be most useful/least useless batting leadoff. Unfortunately, it seems he won’t get that chance. Anyway, my bigger issue is our lack of a good #2 hitter while Beltran is out. Obviously there’s nothing we can do about it – this **** happens when a great player is injured. Definitely a hole in the lineup though.
trs86
3/3/2010-8:52am at 8:52 am (UTC -4)
Hmmm, it appears based on league average we do have a good 2 hitter.
League average:
.273, .338, .405, .743
Castillo
.302 .387 .346 .732
Certainly hurts with SLG but look at that OBP! LOL.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-8:53am at 8:53 am (UTC -4)
Now THAT is harsh and bitter!
Don’t disagree using facts!
prismo
3/3/2010-8:55am at 8:55 am (UTC -4)
I still think Castillo holds more value batting leadoff though. His SLG means the least (IMO) and his OBP can really shine.
trs86
3/3/2010-8:57am at 8:57 am (UTC -4)
Agreed but they are not going to do that. Mostly because they love the fact that he is a contact 1st guy. I suppose that has merit as well.
prismo
3/3/2010-8:58am at 8:58 am (UTC -4)
Pagan
.306 .350 .487 .837
Best #2 possibility? Okay..maybe we can’t expect those same numbers this season, but it would be nice!
trs86
3/3/2010-9:00am at 9:00 am (UTC -4)
Yes in a perfect world Pagan would make a very nice #2 hitter. Again, I just don’t see the Mets taking Castillo from the 2 spot.
prismo
3/3/2010-9:04am at 9:04 am (UTC -4)
You’re right. Probably useless talking about this then, haha. I hope we don’t have to see GMJ hitting early in the order though.
darknova306
3/3/2010-9:13am at 9:13 am (UTC -4)
I hope we don’t see GMJ hitting anywhere in the lineup ever.
darknova306
3/3/2010-9:11am at 9:11 am (UTC -4)
1. Castillo
2. Pagan
3. Reyes
That would be my ideal lineup experiment.
trs86
3/3/2010-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
Agreed but I will still take
Pagan, Castillo, Reyes.
It is indeed only an experiment. What’s wrong with taking a chance?
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-8:52am at 8:52 am (UTC -4)
Harsh and bitter?
Sorry, just debating.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-8:58am at 8:58 am (UTC -4)
You know, I hesitate to take the bait too, but when I get into an “altercation” with someone like Jaydh who says he will root for the team to lose so Manuel gets fired, or with Whataputz when he goes through the usual litany of “Wright didn’t get Murph in from 3rd” nonsense, sorry, but those thoughts should be batted down.
When people criticize my posts–or sagely mock their length as I believe you have on more than one occasion–I don’t respond like you did.
prismo
3/3/2010-9:00am at 9:00 am (UTC -4)
I’m just kidding when I mock the length of your posts (which I’ve done…maybe twice in the past year?) – I always read them from start to finish! I promise.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-9:08am at 9:08 am (UTC -4)
OK, I appreciate that, and I read yours too.
I might have been being a TAD defensive, perhaps thinking this post was attacking my lineup suggestions, and then I was defending my poor little lineup.
Sorry Prismo.
prismo
3/3/2010-9:11am at 9:11 am (UTC -4)
It was definitely not attacking anyone’s lineup suggestions. Maybe using “issue” was a bad idea – I only meant issue as something to think about, not issue as in problem.
Let’s hug it out bro.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-9:14am at 9:14 am (UTC -4)
Agreed and I again apologize.
I may act like an ass a TAD too often, but I do listen to reason and apologize when appropriate.
I promised my family I would be grown up by age 50, and I do have a bunch of years to still achieve that.
trs86
3/3/2010-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
Easy guys, we all love each other and the Mets. LOL.
prismo
3/3/2010-9:06am at 9:06 am (UTC -4)
So, how ’bout that NHL trade deadline today? :p
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
How bout them Nets winning IN Boston….and following it up by losing at home to Washington…
Still just 4 wins to go to just be the SECOND worst team ever.
njstuckintx
3/3/2010-9:20am at 9:20 am (UTC -4)
I’ve mentioned from time to time I’d like to see Murph in the 2 spot. It’s based on feeling, which isn’t quantifiable, so you (not you specifically, king, but readers in general) can lambaste me for saying so.
My reasoning (other than feeling) for Murph in the 2 hole is by putting Castillo in the 8 spot, you now have valid speed ahead of a pitcher. The pitcher is going to sac. more times than not. Having speed there should help to eliminate or at least reduce the sac bunt gone awry and the lead running getting nailed at 2nd. So, castillo gets on, is bunted over, top of the order to drive in the manufactured run. Yeah, it’s not always going to work out that way, but in my mind, that’s how I would construct the lineup. That and a buck will get you something off the dollar menu, minus tax.
Pagan, Murph, Reyes, Wright, Bay, Frenchy, Barajas, Castillo, Pitcher. (pre beltran). Post Beltran… I dunno. put Reyes back in lead off, sit Pagan, Beltran in 3 spot? I know the merits and validity of the stats saying the 2 spot is Beltrans best hitting spot based on numbers, but I think that as times progresses and players age, their games change as well. Beltran in the 3 spot is where I’d prefer. Those are my 2 cents.
darknova306
3/3/2010-9:28am at 9:28 am (UTC -4)
Removing that high-OBP from the top of the order would cost more runs than the sac-bunt-followed-by-RBI situation would produce in my opinion.
njstuckintx
3/3/2010-9:35am at 9:35 am (UTC -4)
I think Murph will have a significant uptick in OBP to warrant his sitting in the 2 spot.
I don’t have access to see numbers (cursed internet block here at work), but how does Castillos OPS compare to others. OBP is good, but high OPS is better, no?
darknova306
3/3/2010-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
Higher OPS is indeed better, but if Murphy doesn’t have that uptick in OBP, I’d rather have the high OBP Castillo there. That said, I do expect Murphy to improve, and if he improves enough then he’d make a very solid 2 hitter. I just need him to prove it.
njstuckintx
3/3/2010-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
I’m agree with you. If Murph isn’t going to cut it, he shouldn’t be there. Having Castillo at the top is not my Anti-stance. I have no real issue with him at the top, barring there isn’t someone who can do a better job. My feeling is that Murph can do something close or comparable to Castillo, with more pop. If we go just on numbers, we do need to go with past, persent and projected future to properly assemble the line up. Unfortunately we don’t have enough numbers on Murph, specifically. I guess all my statements are based on what I see Mr. Murph progressing to be.
If debating that we’d rather have Castillo and his 400 OBP vs. Murphy or Pagan or even GMJs 375 OBP, then we’ll be looking good regardless of the outcome.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
Thing is Murphy would have to have a huge uptick in OBP to get even close to Castillo. Think about this, Reyes best year in OBP was 3 points higher than Castillo’s 2008.
njstuckintx
3/3/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
What about OPS?
trs86
3/3/2010-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
What does OPS really have to do with the 1-2 spots in the lineup? Who are they driving in?
njstuckintx
3/3/2010-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
You only for certain have no one on base the first go around the line up. Putting Castillo in the 8 spot (or 9 spot) with his amazing OPS would mean they could drive him in!
njstuckintx
3/3/2010-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
Meant OBP, but whatever, was a poor attempt at humor none the less.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:21am at 10:21 am (UTC -4)
Obviously as a total hitter OPS is better. However, you want your 3 best OPS guys 3-5.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:20am at 10:20 am (UTC -4)
You are wasting a high OBP guy to clear the pitcher. Castillo just does not fit down there. His OBP would be 70 points higher than league average.
trs86
3/3/2010-8:40am at 8:40 am (UTC -4)
Only thing I can tell based on PA is that the 7th and 8th spot should be your worst OBP guys.
prismo
3/3/2010-8:42am at 8:42 am (UTC -4)
Luckily we have the perfect catcher (Barajas) for just such an occasion! I don’t think anyone can argue that a guy with a lifetime .284 OBP deserves to bat anywhere other than 8th in the NL.
trs86
3/3/2010-8:43am at 8:43 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, there would be merit based on stats I guess for him to bat 7th as it looks like 7th holds the lowest OBP and 8th the 2nd lowest.
trs86
3/3/2010-8:42am at 8:42 am (UTC -4)
So perhaps
looking at the stats for prototypical lineup
It really should be the following, would never happen but…
Castillo, Pagan, Wright, Bay, Reyes, Murphy, Francouer, pitcher.
Again that’s just me trying to match up stats.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-8:44am at 8:44 am (UTC -4)
OK, I get it now…we are debating the completely obvious this morning!
I guess we should all agree!
trs86
3/3/2010-8:49am at 8:49 am (UTC -4)
LOL, just thinking about how many want Castillo to bat 8th but the idea has NO merit whatsoever.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-8:55am at 8:55 am (UTC -4)
+ A million.
And totally correct.
njstuckintx
3/3/2010-9:31am at 9:31 am (UTC -4)
I disagree, there is merit to him batting 8th. It may has less merit than, say him batting 1st or 2nd, but saying there is no merit is wrong. There is no merit in him batting 3, 4, 5, 6… but to say there is no merit in hitting 8th is not correct.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-9:40am at 9:40 am (UTC -4)
No sir, I respectfully disagree.
Why on earth bat the guy with the 29th best OBP in all of baseball 8th?
His remaining strengths offensively are his BA, his OBP, his bunting, his speed, his plate discipline/patience, and the number of pitches he sees.
These skills, combined with his lack of power, make him pretty valuable and well-suited to batting 1st or 2nd, and he is completely wasted hitting 8th.
Why put a guy who has such a good OBP, is fast, etc 8th?
Hitting him 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 8th are equally misusing him I think.
1st, 2nd, or 9th are the only places to utilize him.
trs86
3/3/2010-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, there is actually more merit to him hitting 7th than 8th.
njstuckintx
3/3/2010-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
Then the LaRussa Treatment works for me!
ceetar
3/3/2010-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
I’d reserve the LaRussa treatment for if Wright’s batting third with like 25 home runs and a .320 average in June.
trs86
3/3/2010-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
What merit is there in taking your 2/3 highest OBP guy and slotting him 8th? None. Clearing the pitcher is a made up term. If it were something that most were concerned with why would the 8 spot’s league average be the worst overall hitter and 2nd worst OBP?
njstuckintx
3/3/2010-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
What does league average have anything to do with this? I understand you feel super strong on Castillo in the 1 or 2 spot, which is fine. I am allowed to my opinion. My suggestion of Murph in the 2 hole is based on how I see his progression. If he can’t hack it, having Castillo in the 1 or 2 spot is no problem. But to just write out the idea based soley on Castillo’s OBP numbers for 2009 is just silly. They do need to be taken into consideration, absolutely. And I’m not saying that Murph, or any other, should be annoitted to the #2 without putting money where the oral opening is. I would rather have some pop at the top of the lineup. Hopefully others get their wish and the Met’s roll with Reyes/Beltran/Wright/Bay and makes this whole bit of nonsense moot.
There is no reason to suggest at his age that Castillo doesn’t follow 2008 any more than follow 2009.
Man, it’s a testy room this morning.
trs86
3/3/2010-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
It matters because no team would put a guy with a .380 OBP 8th.
trs86
3/3/2010-8:48am at 8:48 am (UTC -4)
I think looking at the chart we also have to keep in mind it looks like there are about 20 AB’s difference over the course of the season. Don’t you think you would rather have Reyes getting 660 AB’s with more of a potential of runners on over 680 AB’s with a potential for less runners on?
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-8:56am at 8:56 am (UTC -4)
Again, totally wise.
Batting 3rd in the 1st inning, he doubles/triples, and is on 2nd or 3rd, but ALSO has driven in a run or two lots of the time.
Reyes batting 3rd is very likely a recipe for the Mets to score MORE runs.
trs86
3/3/2010-8:59am at 8:59 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, we also have to think about the fact that Pagan may indeed NOT be a fluke.
.306 .350 .487 .837 last season in a terrible lineup.
.297 .358 .475 .833 Reyes 2008
Not saying Pagan is anywhere NEAR as good as Reyes but it’s possible that the Mets found their own version of Werth.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-9:06am at 9:06 am (UTC -4)
Works for me!
If true, and he gets off to a blazing start, what a great problem to have.
prismo
3/3/2010-9:07am at 9:07 am (UTC -4)
If he can stay healthy! *knocks on wood*
trs86
3/3/2010-9:13am at 9:13 am (UTC -4)
Interesting but here’s a question.
What do we do if Pagan is still hitting that when Beltran returns?
Do we trade Francouer or Pagan or do we go with a platoon?
ceetar
3/3/2010-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
Let’s worry about that when the time comes. I’m sure they’ll go easy on Beltran coming out, and you can hopefully find AB for Pagan via first pinch hitter status, maybe a game for Francoeur here or there (though he’ll balk at that..)
trs86
3/3/2010-9:22am at 9:22 am (UTC -4)
See that’s where I have the issue. If the guy is still .297 .358 .475 .833 then he has to play more than 2-3 times a week. He would have earned it.
ceetar
3/3/2010-9:32am at 9:32 am (UTC -4)
Truly, and it’s situations like that I don’t trust Manuel to handle correctly.
But it’s nto a situation that’s easy to handle either. Jeffy gets a little pissy if he doesn’t play everyday. Bay pretty much plays every day too. Beltran can take a couple of days rest when he first comes back, but he’s Beltran, and if he’s 100%, he plays everyday, no questions. So what do you do?
It’s not _as_ difficult as all that, because the AL games do come up in May and June. So presumably by the time Beltran is back and playing every day (assuming it’s not like April 20th, which is still a possibility) you can DH Bay a lot and get Pagan in the lineup (it seems no question that Pagan is the best player on the ‘bench’) This will still get plenty of playing time for Pagan. Obviously you’d rotate Beltran in their a bunch as well.
then again, if we have four outfielders playing like top-flight major leaguers, along with Wright, Reyes and Castillo’s OBP, I have a feeling there will be some crying going on in Philadelphia.
metsfan4decades
3/3/2010-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
And nothing I’d like better than a Met scenario that results in Philly fans whining….
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-9:25am at 9:25 am (UTC -4)
if Frenchy is hitting too, then you sit Pagan on the bench but start him 2-3 games a week.
trs86
3/3/2010-9:29am at 9:29 am (UTC -4)
See that’s it why does Francouer get the nod over Pagan?
ceetar
3/3/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
Cause he’s a better interview.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
have to weigh playing your hot players versus making sure you get the best look out of Frenchy to make sure we know what we have.
Also, French’s arm is more valuable.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:18am at 10:18 am (UTC -4)
Perhaps, but then maybe Pagan has better range?
darknova306
3/3/2010-9:36am at 9:36 am (UTC -4)
If they’re both hitting well, I’d prefer to play Pagan everyday with his much higher OBP. Though his baserunning idiocy still has me on edge.
stickguy
3/3/2010-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
frenchy has such a severe L/R split that it would make perfect sense to platoon the 2 of them.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
Agreed.
darknova306
3/3/2010-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
Exactly, which is why I’m all about it. The more runs the better, right?
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-9:35am at 9:35 am (UTC -4)
Bingo!
Although I am not sure Jerry understand this concept….
ceetar
3/3/2010-9:12am at 9:12 am (UTC -4)
Here’s the thing..those numbers are formulaic. They arn’t hard and fast true.
For instance, the dropoff appears to be about 20 AB from first to second, but Castillo’s OBP is higher than the typical first or second batter, so that means he reaches base more, extending the inning, and cutting down on that difference.
It’s crude, but the team that has the most AB tends to win.
trs86
3/3/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
Yup, just like the team in basketball that gets the most possessions usually wins or the team in football that runs the most plays. It’s common sense that the team that gets on base more over the course of a full season will win more games.
ceetar
3/3/2010-9:22am at 9:22 am (UTC -4)
And it’s exactly why batting Castillo 8th is a bad idea. and why if you formulate the lineup properly and Pagan is doing okay, Reyes doesn’t actually lose a lot of AB over the season batting third, and will have more opportunities to drive in runners.
Plus, isn’t it the thought that pitchers throw more fastballs/hittable pitches with Reyes on? Will help David with pulling the ball more, for more power.
trs86
3/3/2010-9:31am at 9:31 am (UTC -4)
Yeah there are a lot of variables here.
To me you want your best 3 hitters hitting 3-5 because those spots have the most balance of getting a high amount of PA but also a high amount of PA with runners on base. Thus higher quality AB’s. In our current lineup the best 3 hitters are Reyes, Wright and Bay.
ceetar
3/3/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, and you probably put Bay 5th as the lower OBP guy, because Reyes and Wright are the least likely to make an out, and maximize getting as many of them up in one inning. With them in front of him, Bay will leadoff an inning less times, therefore maximizing his RBI potential.
trs86
3/3/2010-9:38am at 9:38 am (UTC -4)
I think there is another reason you put Bay 5th. It protects Wright and out of the group Bay needs the least protection because he is the strongest mentally in my opinion.
metsfan4decades
3/3/2010-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
Good point.
metsfan4decades
3/3/2010-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
This is all Beltran’s fault for not being ready to go. LOL – I jest, just in case my sarcasm meter isn’t on…
Whether Beltran is in the line up or not, I don’t think you bat Castillo anywhere but 1st or 2nd. Not unless his OBP really falls off all together – then it’s a no brainer to move him way down in the lineup.
If I remember correctly last year, Jerry started him out low in the lineup to ‘get him going’ – (can’t remember if it was 8th or not). He was doing so well there though that when the big guns started going down and that lineup had to change, he moved him back to 2nd.
I don’t think though that anyone can make an argument for or against line up position just looking strictly at last years stats. There were so many batting in a spot not their strength so many times, how can you really tell anything? Case in point is at times we had Murphy and Tatis as cleanup. Murphy and Tatis – think about that. And if they were our strengths at that particular time, then those batting behind them had to have been worse.
trs86
3/3/2010-9:21am at 9:21 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, that is why I focused on NL averages.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-9:38am at 9:38 am (UTC -4)
Let’s say Reyes only leads off, what’s the long term solution if Beltran is out for a significant amount of time?
Can we really go with a 3-5 of Wright-Bay-Frenchy and a 6-8 of Pagan-Murphy-Santos?
BTW, I disagree that Jose’s best asset is his ability to distract pitchers, etc.
Jose’s best ability is to get hits. From 2005 to 2008 he was 5th, 8th, 6th and 1st in the NL, respectively. Despite being a hitting machine, his RBI numbers are pretty pathetic. Think about how many more runs will be scored with Reyes batting third.
Unleash the Beast of the East!
trs86
3/3/2010-9:43am at 9:43 am (UTC -4)
True, his RBI totals are great for a lead off but why are we wasting a good RBI guy in the 1st spot with guys like Barjas and the pitcher on base?
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-9:50am at 9:50 am (UTC -4)
That’s why Castillo is perfect for the leadoff spot. He’ll have no one to bunt over and won’t need to try to drive someone in with his low SLG. All he’ll need to do is get on base, which he does very well.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
“Think about how many more runs will be scored with Reyes batting third.”
YES!
I have been thinking about this all offseason! Even last year!
And no, Slappy is nowhere near as exciting as Jose, but he WILL get on base even more. And he can still run those chubby little legs fast enough to score on all of Jose’s many extra base hits.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
So.. you think Ichiro or Jeter should bat 3rd? I mean they both get much more hits than Reyes. Plus they both have decent power to hit 20HRs when batting 3rd.
I mean c’mon.
Reyes is a career .286 hitter. If I remember correctly, 3rd spot in the lineup is supposed hit for average and power. Reyes does neither of them well compared to Wright.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
Again, you are basing this on their lineups. Who are their best 3 hitters?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
Who’s the best Leadoff man of these guys? Reyes, Pagan or Castillo?
The ONLY logical reason I see in batting Reyes 3rd is to conserve his legs and to extend the lineup until Beltran comes back. But when healthy, Reyes is the BEST LEADOFF man IN THE F-IN LEAGUE!!! So… why do you want to take that advantage away from a team that desperately needs to score runs? Especially when 4/5 of your rotation is questionable?
Sure Reyes may have good numbers and can drive in runs. So he hits on pace for 20HRs and 100RBIs… That is average production number at 3rd spot. So… can anyone answer this?? Why would you want to make the best leadoff man to an average 3rd hitter? To utilize the high OBP of Castillo?? I mean is getting the max production out of Castillo that much more important than getting max production from Reyes?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-9:52am at 9:52 am (UTC -4)
Does anyone think Ichiro should bat 3rd in the Mariners lineup? I mean he does have some pop in his bat and can drive in runs. Last year he hit 11 HRs and 31 Doubles. His SLG was .465 last year and career .434. Ichiro’s SLG is higher than Reyes’ SLG. So, does that justify batting Ichiro 3rd? Perhaps Ichiro can hit 20HRs and 100RBIs.
trs86
3/3/2010-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
Depends on what else they have in the lineup and if they have a better guy for 3-5?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
So you think Reyes is a better 3rd hitter than Wright or Bay?
trs86
3/3/2010-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
I think that Reyes is in the top 3 of our hitters and thus should bat 3-5. Logically because the 4th and 5th spots traditionally have the most power he would have to hit 3rd.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
Terrible comparison. Ichiro has a much higher BA and a higher OBP than Reyes and MUCH less power.
ceetar
3/3/2010-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
games aren’t won via ‘best leadoff hitter’. How to you analyze that? Reyes has the ability both to score and create runs, so optimally you want him in front of guys that can drive him in, and behind guys he can drive in. Leadoff only fits one of those. He’ll still be up in the first inning, and even if the other two make out, Reyes can still get on and cause havoc, even with two outs.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-9:56am at 9:56 am (UTC -4)
Sure anyone can answer this. If he hits 3rd, he will bat with MANY MANY more guys on base in front of him over the course of the year. Many guys.
EVERY time he hits a 2B, 3B, or HR in the first inning batting 3rd, we have the chance to score MORE runs.
Jose’s OBP is just not that great, and based on his incredibly consistent OBP the last 4 years, he is very likely a .360 OBP guy. Castillo gets on base more. Let Slappy see ten pitches leading off, and let Jose swing at the first pitch he likes–this is their natural game.
Yes, Jose is exciting, but I fail to see why the excitement will be lessened when Jose hits a first inning triple which drives a run in from the 3 spot rather than leading off.
He can still do everything he does batting leadoff batting 3rd, will get MORE protection hitting ahead of Wright or Bay or Beltran, and after the first inning, the whole leadoff issue is moot anyway.
Can anyone answer why this might not be a recipe for MORE runs?
ceetar
3/3/2010-9:59am at 9:59 am (UTC -4)
Also, when I’m rushing around and don’t turn the tv on until 7:12 I won’t miss Reyes’ AB!
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
What is the goal of the leadoff hitter?
To get on base.
Who does that better?
Castillo
Reyes is better at driving in runs.
Reyes is a player on a TEAM. The goal should be to do what is best for the team. And since we need to desperately score runs, this is the best way to do it.
Given their abilities, having Reyes bat third with Castillo hitting 1st or 2nd will score more runs.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
So why not bat Pujols at the leadoff spot? I mean he has one of the highest OBPs in the league. He does have some speed.
So hypothetically, does it make sense to put Pujols at leadoff spot and put Reyes at 3rd since Reyes will drive in lots and lots of runs if Pujols get on base lots and lots of times?
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-10:07am at 10:07 am (UTC -4)
uh because Pujols drives in more runs.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
You are making our case not yours. LOL.
You don’t put just your BEST OBP guy at the top. You put your best 3 hitters in the 3-5 spots because those spots get more impact AB’s. Just look at the NL averages for those spots. They are the best 3 hitters.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
But how do you determine who the best 3 hitters are? Obviously Frenchy has more power than Reyes, but Reyes probably gets more hits.
trs86
3/3/2010-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
OPS would be a great judge of hits, walks and power.
trs86
3/3/2010-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
Who says the max production of Reyes is in the 1st spot?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
Haven’t you seen him???? What Max production are you expecting from Reyes at 3rd? Hit .300 40HRs and 140 RBIs?? What more proof do you need?
I mean this season is a year of comeback and bounce back. YOU CANNOT TINKER AROUND THE LINEUP and EXPERIMENT.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:10am at 10:10 am (UTC -4)
How do you know what potential he has? We are looking at him in a box. Who are our best 3 hitters with Beltran out? Just answer that question?
By the way, speaking in all caps does not give any more merit to your discussion.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Sorry.. I kinda get carried away with all caps.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-10:11am at 10:11 am (UTC -4)
“YOU CANNOT TINKER AROUND THE LINEUP and EXPERIMENT.”
Sure you can. After the last three years you SHOULD. EVERY game counts, and Jose batting 3rd might get us another win or two….that would have been key in 2007 and 2008, no?
I say Reyes has basically the same production, with a HIGHER BA and MANY more RBI.
trs86
3/3/2010-9:53am at 9:53 am (UTC -4)
More stats.
Reyes gets about 762 PA from the 1st spot if he plays the entire year. He gets about 725 from the 3rd spot if he plays the entire year. His hit rate is at about .267. Thus if he bats lead off he gets around 203 hits if he hits 3rd he gets 193 hits. In the one spot 203 hits gets you about 68 RBI in the 3rd spot gets you 100 RBI. Which hits are more important?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-9:57am at 9:57 am (UTC -4)
How about Runs scored? I bet you that it goes way down if you move him from 1st to 3rd.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
Does it?
Last year the 1st spot in the NL scored 1635 runs and the 3rd spot scored 1612 runs. So basically about 1 more run.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
With his speed hitting right in front of Wright and Bay? He will score MORE runs.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:08am at 10:08 am (UTC -4)
Very true, we are forgetting the other variables. Reyes hits a double hitting 1st then has Castillo, Wright coming up or he hits a double and has Wright and Bay coming up.
darknova306
3/3/2010-9:58am at 9:58 am (UTC -4)
And the 3 spot probably gets driven in more often, so even more runs are created with him on base all the time.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:17am at 10:17 am (UTC -4)
I mentioned this earlier but I think we are missing the variables. Why do we think that Reyes would keep the same split in the 3rd spot with more runners on base and better hitters behind him? Is it not possible that if he is very good that his numbers improve?
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
So, what to do if everything goes as planned (a shocker for Jerry) and Reyes is excelling batting 3rd and Pagan is doing great as a leadoff hitter?
One option:
Castillo
Reyes
Beltran
Wright
Bay
Pagan
Murphy
Barajas
trs86
3/3/2010-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
If Reyes was doing great I think you would look to see what spot is not doing well and adjust from there.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-10:31am at 10:31 am (UTC -4)
Good point.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
Of course it is, you came up with it.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:38am at 10:38 am (UTC -4)
Hey Prismo could you perhaps take that graph and also put in OBP, SLG, OPS into the same graph? That way we could compare those numbers based on spot in the lineup and PA?
fongy2
3/3/2010-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
Meaningless, since it includes some bad players on bad teams.
When healthy, theres no doubt the best hitters/run producers we have are Reyes,Wright,Beltran&Bay.
That four should hit within the first 5 spots in the order.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:45am at 10:45 am (UTC -4)
Obviously those guys would hit in the top 5 spots. It’s just what order, LOL.
Also I don’t think it’s meaningless at all or I would not request it
The league average would also include guys who are very good and guys who are very bad and guys who are in the middle. That’s why it’s an average.
fongy2
3/3/2010-10:39am at 10:39 am (UTC -4)
Talk about much to do about nothin’!
W/O Beltran in the line-up,moving Reyes to 3rd makes some sense….I guess.
If the team is doin’well w/him in the 3spotAND someone like
Murphy has improved enough,through late May when Beltran returns,
you hit him 2nd and this makes for a long line-up.
Alot has to go right for that to play out though.
Its just as likely Castillo get hurt,Jerry buries Murphy AND
Jose is back in the lead-off spotwhen Beltran returns.
Kudos to Prismo on the above article.
In the end, you want your best Run producers to hit in the
first 4/5 spots in the order…Not just for the extra AB a game
BUT for when that AB comes…The 8th and/or 9th inning.
trs86
3/3/2010-10:44am at 10:44 am (UTC -4)
Right, but based on stats you want your best 3 OPS guys hitting 3-5th and your high OBP low SLG guys hitting 1-2. You hide guys in the 7-8 spot.
fongy2
3/3/2010-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
You can’t hide anyone in the majors.
To me, wheneveryones healthy, Castillo at this point in his career is a perfect 8hole hitter.
Gets on base,not really much of a SB threat hitting one BUT in the 8hole,fast enough to avoid
pitchers bunting into double plays AND fast enough
to not hold Reyes up hitting 2 spots behind him
when Jose is on base.
He also handles the bat well enough to slap around
the bad pitches an 8th hitter sees with the Pitcher on deck behind him.
njstuckintx
3/3/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
Man, it’s like the clouds opened up and the sun is shining through!
fongy2
3/3/2010-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
LOL!
Has any team EVER hit a guy with a .390 OBP, 29th best in all of baseball, 8th?
Can you find one??
This is really, really silly.
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:06am at 11:06 am (UTC -4)
My friend, don’t become a slave to stats.
Castillo is a very,very limited offensive player.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
He is indeed VERY limited, which is why the team should benefit by batting him in a slot where his remaining skills can best be utilized.
I really think that would be 1st or 2nd.
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:25am at 11:25 am (UTC -4)
RIGHT NOW.
Again,once Beltran returns AND
if Murphy is hitting, why
would you waste those
PA’s on a
guy who had
16 total xtra base hits in over 500PA’s last season?
trs86
3/3/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
Why would you waste someone that gets on base as much as Castillo with the pitcher up next?
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
because the job of the top of the order is to get on base, not drive in runs.
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
BUT the reason Reyes had almost 80rbi a couple yrs ago WAS b/c
Valentin was on base ALOT
hitting in the eight hole AND it
also prevent wasting the Pitchers spot
often with him being able to SH
instead of just K.
trs86
3/3/2010-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
He had 70 RBI with Brian Schneider and company batting 8th in 2008.
Reyes had a hell of a season in 2006 regardless of who was hitting 8th.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
Fong, Castillo had the 29th best OBP in all of baseball last year. All of baseball.
You don’t hit a guy like that 8th.
A .390 hitter is not perfect for the 8 hole. Come on.
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
If you say so!
The problem with Castillo is of course,all the 150′singles and
the fact that Pitchers no longer
fear him as a base stealer.
Bottom line is that at this point in his career,he’s not much of a run producer for a guy w/ a .390OBP.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-11:18am at 11:18 am (UTC -4)
Very good OBP, good BA, sees TONS of pitches, stole 20/26 bases….sounds like a 1 or 2 hitter to me my friend.
All of the singles are really not a problem hitting 1st.
And I respectfully must suggest that if he stole 20/26, he is most definitely still a SB threat.
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
Really?!
Pujols stole 16.
He’s a stolen base threat?…Or is it
that he CAN steal a
base?
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
What on earth is the difference?
Either you run fast and can steal 15–20 or you can’t.
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
I don’t mean that.
I meant REAL
SB threat.
Ya know,driving the pitcher crazy,having him throw over a ton,losing focus on the hitter,etc..
Like Reyes or Crawford or Coleman or
Wilson back in the day.
trs86
3/3/2010-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
Pitchers throw over a ton with Castillo on as well. If you watched the game I think they were doing it to try and hurt his knees. LOL.
ceetar
3/3/2010-11:19am at 11:19 am (UTC -4)
And that’s fine, because he stole 20 bases last year, and he’ll steal that many again this year. If pitchers don’t fear him, that’s fine. the 20 extra bases (at a good % if i recall) is more valuable than the pitcher being ‘scared’. (besides, he’s got a runner on and has Wright and Reyes looming. that’s scary enough)
If Castillo can swipe 20 bases again at the top of the lineup, those leadoff singles are closer to doubles, in that we only need one single from Pagan/Reyes/Wright to drive him in.
There is no way to underrate the importance of getting on base without an out. Castillo also sees a lot of pitches, which helps out too.
trs86
3/3/2010-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
You don’t put your 2nd best OBP guy with the least amount of ab’s that makes no sense.
njstuckintx
3/3/2010-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
Fongy, very much agree. Summarized what I was writing above, just in a coherant manner.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
But still absolutely and utterly ridiculous.
As someone said above, Barajas is ideal for the 8 spot.
Bad BA, really bad OBP, but occasional power, so the doubles and HRs will definitely drive in some runs over the course of the year.
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
So basically to outs at the bottom of the line-up, killing and preventing rallies?
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
Errrr, “two” outs.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
better than two rally killing outs earlier in the lineup.
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:20am at 11:20 am (UTC -4)
Again, AFTER Beltran comes
back. AND if Murphy produces
like we hope. Otherwise,you
hit Castillo 2, until of course he gets hurt.
trs86
3/3/2010-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
Right because Castillo gets hurt a lot. He has had tons of seasons that he has missed a significant amount of games?
That’s not the point. What is this talk anyway of IF Murphy is hitting well and if Beltran is back?
Even if Murphy is doing well how high do you expect his OBP to be? It will still be lower than Castillo’s with more pop. So if anything that means that Murphy would move from 7th to 6th.
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
Not “ton’s of seasons” BUT there’s
no question
over the past few,the guys body has
been breaking down. Plus he is 35.
trs86
3/3/2010-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
Right so that is why he played his most games in the last 4 years last year?
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
turns 35 in Sept.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-11:00am at 11:00 am (UTC -4)
Past 3 years
Castillo .369 OBP, .712 OPS
Reyes .356 OBP, .799 OPS
Wright .399 OBP, .911 OPS
Beltran .375 OBP, .885 OPS
Bay .362 OBP, .855 OPS
Pagan .339 OBP, .796 OPS OR Frenchy .314 OBP, .724 OPS
Murphy .331 OBP, .768 OPS
Barajas
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-11:03am at 11:03 am (UTC -4)
Well, Barajas’ numbers are bad, but I believe he did HAVE an OBP…
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
.286 and .690 is not an OBP or OPS
Out of 46 Catchers w/ 500 PA in the past 3 years, his OBP does qualify for 42nd best and his OPS does qualify for 32nd best.
To be fair his .404 SLG does put him 19th of 46.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
Wow, 42 out of 46!
I did really like the move, and I really believe that 19 HR and 19 2B out of that spot will produce some good run production.
njstuckintx
3/3/2010-11:10am at 11:10 am (UTC -4)
So, averaged over the past 3 years, Murph has a better OPS than castillo by 50 pts. hmm…
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
hopefully after this year, we’ll have a true sense of what Murphy is.
njstuckintx
3/3/2010-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
Correct. Things will hinge on that. Murph could fall on his face, Castillo rip it up hitting 2nd, and we’ll move forward accordingly. Time will tell.
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
More likely, at his age,with that body, he’ll rip up a hamstring or knee!
Lets face it,it’s more likely Ollie
returns to top form than we get a
season as good as last year out of
Castillo in 2010.
trs86
3/3/2010-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
Why is that fongy? Does he have a tendency of getting hurt? Based on his career?
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
C’mon guy!
The guy’s lower body hasn’t been breaking down the past few yrs?
trs86
3/3/2010-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
Perhaps but he also played 120+ games 10/11 years and had totals of this the last 6
150
122
142
135
87
142
Which one sticks out to you?
trs86
3/3/2010-11:32am at 11:32 am (UTC -4)
LOL, nope because you would have to factor in a 0 for one of Murhpy’s years.
Obviously we all know that Castillo will have a higher OBP and Murphy a higher SLG. Thus Castillo bats near the top and Murphy bats in an RBI slot.
GravediggerHebner
3/3/2010-11:05am at 11:05 am (UTC -4)
As always I’m late to the party so most of what I have to say has been said by others above already.
I love graphs and charts especially when I actually understand the information they are presenting.
This chart is certainly a “tool in the toolbox” as we’ve become fond of saying around here.
Lineup composition is ultimately somewhat subjective and for the most part people on different sides of the debate have valid reasons for their hypotheses. But in my opinion that’s what all potential lineup combinations are – hypotheses – and as all of us who’ve ever attended a science class know in order to prove or disprove a hypothesis you have to conduct an experiment.
So if we are to truly determine whether Reyes 3rd is a good or bad idea, we at least have to see it in action for a while and I am open to that possibility.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
stop being reasonable
ceetar
3/3/2010-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
The thing is, baseball players/managers are rarely scientific.
And it’s not a controlled experiment. You can’t have Reyes bat lead off one game,and then duplicate the same experiment the next day with him third as the pitcher will be different, will throw differently, will feel differently, different players will be hot/cold, etc. So it really requires a little bit more in depth analysis, and do we trust HoJo/Manuel to do this?
metsfan4decades
3/3/2010-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
Jerry is the great tinkerer. I think that was one of the ‘faults’ that got him fired in Chicago.
I’m not sure the FO sees this though, or if they do are still giving him a pass.
The 2008 season after he took over, they’re probably thinking he was forced to constantly tinker with that BP b/c we lost Wagner in August.
And last year, the constant tinkering with platoons, line up positions and the like, they probably attributed to no choice due to injuries.
And to be fair to him, some of that tinkering was b/c of those very reasons. But even in the beginning of the season last year – he kept saying Church was his RF. We’d see Church have 2 good days, then Jerry puts him on the bench putting someone else out there. Never could figure out what that was all about, especially since it was all about ‘rewarding the producers’ mindset he had.
So it’s going to be very interesting – if most remain healthy this year – to see just what Jerry does with the lineup and BP…..
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
Jerry’s main problem is the same one that
Omar has……He thinks he’s smarter than
he is!
trs86
3/3/2010-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
Don’t we all?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
Yes.
metsfan4decades
3/3/2010-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
HAHAHA – I laughed right out loud reading this three word comment.
Couldn’t be more true, unless you’re Forrest Gump
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
Most of us on here sure do!
stickguy
3/3/2010-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
what is this, lake Wobegone, where everyone is above average?
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
Not me!
I live with Harry Callahan’s words
always on my mind.
“A man’s got to know his limitations”
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
Just to summarize my point (not that anyone is interested),
I understand why Reyes would bat 3rd when Beltran is out. It does extend the lineup and every argument for it makes sense to me. I have my opinions and arguments against it, but I still understand it and makes sense. But what I do not understand is to bat Reyes 3rd even after Beltran comes back.
trs86
3/3/2010-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
It really depends on how he is doing in that position and where we need the most help. If the entire lineup is clicking then the decision becomes much more difficult but wouldn’t that be a great problem?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
It would be. But I just can’t shake away the excitement you would get from the leadoff triple and 1-0 score after 1st inning.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
How about the excitement of it being 2-0 after the leadoff triple drives someone in, and then Reyes scores on a DRod single or sac fly?
Wouldn’t that be better?
And of course people respect you and are interested–otherwise your comments would be ignored, which they clearly have not been!
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-11:42am at 11:42 am (UTC -4)
Oops, the NON-leadoff triple in the 3 spot…..
trs86
3/3/2010-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
Beat me to it.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:00pm at 12:00 pm (UTC -4)
Pagan doubles
Castillo walks after 10 pitches
Reyes triples (score 2-0)
Wright doubles in Reyes (score 3-0)
Bay homers to LF (score 5-0)
Once Beltran comes back, we’ll be singing, “Ain’t no stopping us now!”
trs86
3/3/2010-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
Well how about the triple in the first inning that actually drives in a run and has Wright and Bay to follow with a guy on 3rd? That’s exciting enough.
stickguy
3/3/2010-12:11pm at 12:11 pm (UTC -4)
The big problem with reyes/castillo is this example.
Reyes leads off with a triple, and castillo has a very low shot of getting him in (relative to his lofty OBP). IMO of course.
Slappy might get on, and runners are good, but that still doesn’t get a run in.
So I can see the situation where Reyes triples, and is still on 3B with one out.
trs86
3/3/2010-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
True, Castillo does not drive in many but I don’t think he has too many problems driving in the runner from 3rd. Either way, he gets on base a lot so even if he is not driving in the runner you end up with Reyes on 3rd and Castillo on 1st with Wright and Bay. That does not concern me that much. I just think Reyes in this lineup is more suited for the 3-5 slots than anyone other than Wright and Bay.
ceetar
3/3/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
The thing is I don’t like the idea of pushing Bay back to 6th. That seems too deep, so you keep him closer by batting Reyes first. maybe.
trs86
3/3/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
I would never have Bay batting 6th.
Pagan would be replaced in the lineup so you would still have a combination of
Castillo, Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Bay in your top 5 slots.
ceetar
3/3/2010-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
I’m vehimently against batting Beltran second, so Reyes is the only option to replace Pagan in the top two. That’s where I was going with that.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
me too
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
Why would you be against Beltran batting 2nd?
trs86
3/3/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Point is that without Pagan and then with Beltran it does not really change the top 5 hitters.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, except I have Wright and Beltran switched.
Can’t go wrong w/ Pagan or Frenchy followed by Murph and Barajas.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
For me it comes down to how do you score more runs.
The way I, and many others, see it, the Mets can score more runs by having Jose hit lower in the order.
trs86
3/3/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
Yup, that’s about it. We think we can so we think we should try it. If it does not work you switch it back.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
On a side note, I watched couple innings of yesterday’s game that I DVRed. Ruben Tejada looks like he’s 16.
fongy2
3/3/2010-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
I told you all this months ago!
Seeing the kid live, he looked 14!
metsfan4decades
3/3/2010-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
They all look like kids to me. I hated the season I realized all those ball players were now younger than me….
trs86
3/3/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
That 1970 season must have been tough…..
“Runs for the door”
ceetar
3/3/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
lol.
Reyes and Wright are younger than me/my age, so it’ll be when they move on that I’ll start feeling it.
Tejada didn’t grow up any huh? saw him last spring and he looked very young.
metsfan4decades
3/3/2010-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
Hey…..LOL.
Every year on my b’day I have someone who asks me something like ‘so how does it feel being another year older’? My answer is always the same:
Better than the alternative, which is to no longer be celebrating any b’days….
I just want to see another Met WS celebration before I die. Saw two, which I know is two more than a lot of Met fans but I don’t think it’s too much to ask for – LOL….
trs86
3/3/2010-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, that’s what my grandmother says anytime you ask her how she feels. She is 84.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
HAHA!!
stickguy
3/3/2010-12:13pm at 12:13 pm (UTC -4)
that’s why I want Moyer to stick around.
Well, that and the fact that he stinks and is on the PHils.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
Wilmer Flores looks like he’s 13.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
read somewhere that the Mets still have the oldest team in the league. how is that possible after getting rid of Delgado, Wagner, Pedro and ElDuque?
Are Coste and Blanco driving up the average?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe they counted Jerry and Sandy Alomar…
metsfan4decades
3/3/2010-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
If it’s the same article I read that article yesterday said the Mets had the second oldest 40 man roster. Not the oldest ML 25 man roster.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:26pm at 12:26 pm (UTC -4)
thanks for clarifying
trs86
3/3/2010-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
So most likely our AAA is too old. LOL.
stickguy
3/3/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
really isn’t anyone old on the 25 man. I guess there are some geezers ticketed for AAA though.
Have to imagine this will drop quickly when the final cuts are made. And really only the 25 man is that relevant (if this analyssi is relevant at all!)
Mets do have a young pitching staff.
And common sense says that the Phils and Yankers will be 2 of the oldest ML rosters.
ceetar
3/3/2010-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
With all these options being bandied around, one thing is obvious: We have a good lineup.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
Question for you guys. Would you give up Ike Davis for AGonz (assuming he is signed to an extension)?
metsfan4decades
3/3/2010-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
Depends. Definitely is contingent on getting the extension and who else are we giving up with Davis? Because you know Davis for AGonz isn’t getting it done.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
Depends.
With Beltran in the lineup plus Reyes, Wright and Bay, do we need A-Gonz and his huge salary?
trs86
3/3/2010-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
True about the huge salary but you also are assuming we keep Beltran. Agonz would basically be taking his salary and remember Davis can play RF. You could end up with
Gonz, Tejada, Reyes, Wright, Thole, Bay, Fmart, Davis?
stickguy
3/3/2010-12:33pm at 12:33 pm (UTC -4)
A Gon is cheap thru 2011. I expect Beltran to be gone in 2012, so correct that Gonzolez becomes the big $$ FA signed after 2011.
Problem is, you could never end up with your list of players, since at least 2 of them will be playing for SD.
Man though, think of how much it changes our line up discussions if you replace Murphy with A Gon?
trs86
3/3/2010-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
True you could be trading Ike or Fmart. I have no idea what they will want.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
how are we getting Gonz if we’re keeping Tejada, Thole, Fmart and Davis?
You better not touch Mejia!
trs86
3/3/2010-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
You make it seem so dirty. LOL.
metsfan4decades
3/3/2010-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
I saw a discussion on this yesterday over on MLBTR.
Consensus was it would take Davis, FMart, Mejia and one other prospect.
In that case, I wouldn’t do it. I know prospects are hit or miss but those 3 are 3 or our better and almost ready prospects.
Even though it would be nice to have AGonz when Beltran’s contract is up……
metsfan4decades
3/3/2010-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
Dang, should have read:
‘but those 3 are 3 of our better and almost ready prospects’
trs86
3/3/2010-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
That one would be tough. They would have to throw in a guy like Young too.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
All things being the same, I’d rather keep Beltran.
trs86
3/3/2010-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
All things would not be the same though. Beltran would be much older.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
nothing wrong with that. He’s should be good for another 5 years, till he’s 37.
trs86
3/3/2010-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
LOL, hard to expect great defense from a mid 30s guy with bad knees. Just too early to tell. How much money he is going to want, how much money Agonz will actually get… He’s not getting Tex money regardless.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:50pm at 12:50 pm (UTC -4)
yup, Beltran won’t get Beltran money either and I’m sure he’d be good in RF. I doubt he’d all of a sudden be a poor defender.
trs86
3/3/2010-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
I would think that we could cross that bridge later. You don’t skip getting Agonz because of Beltran. You worry about their salaries clashing when their salaries clash.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
Actually, I’d much rather try to go after Mauer or Sizemore (if they become available)
trs86
3/3/2010-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
But we have Thole. LOL. I think Mauer will be locked up.
trs86
3/3/2010-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
Gotta see how Sizemore rebounds this year too. Last year with injuries was not that good.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
I agree. At this point, if all healthy, I think Beltran is still a better player than Sizemore.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
sure, I guess I believe big money is better spent on up the middle guys and top of the rotation pitchers.
trs86
3/3/2010-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
True if you were building from ground up. Too many variables right now.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
My question was would you trade Davis for AGonz IF the Padres came knocking on Omar’s door.
Obviously other pieces would be involved, but let’s say the main pieces are Davis for AGonz.
trs86
3/3/2010-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
Yup. Davis MAY be good. Agonz is currently cheap and in his prime.
metsfan4decades
3/3/2010-12:50pm at 12:50 pm (UTC -4)
Sure, if it’s Davis and 3 lesser prospects.
But what if it’s Davis, Mejia, FMart and Thole?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
That’s valid point and I think it will take more than Davis and 3 lesser prospects. What if it’s Davis, Murphy and Mejia for AGonz?
trs86
3/3/2010-1:05pm at 1:05 pm (UTC -4)
Hmmm… done.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-1:09pm at 1:09 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with you too.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, you always trade prospects for star players.
Grave pretty much shot down any arguments against not doing it.
CaseStreet
3/3/2010-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
BTW, I hate Spring Training. It’s 30+ days of teasing.
stickguy
3/3/2010-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
Man, at least you guys know what topic to post if you want to generate traffic. Even got my boy Fongy out of the woodwork!
Let me summarize my current feelings about all this (I know at least Kingman will care).
1st, I think that lineup theory seems to have pretty much ben worked out by now (even larussa hasn’t managed to successfully radically change it!). Pretty much what TRS said. High OBP/SB guys up top, and the run producers 3-5, with 6 being somewhat of a power bat to pick up the scraps. 7-8 the left overs, probably lower OBP but some pop guys.
Of course, you have to tweak if your lineup is missing one of the core components (like when the Red Sox went with Boggs or Yuke 1st, lacking the traditional speedsters).
So, giving the expected 8 starters, Reyes 3rd is a smart idea. He also seems to profile as a guy that will thrive there.
But, I am still an ardent Luis hitting 1st instead of 2nd guy.
SOme other random thoughts:
1) When beltran comes back, Pagan (if he is hitting like last year) should plaroon with Frenchy (if he is following career norms). Pagan hits RHP well, and Frenchy’s career splits are horrifying. He is actually very good against LHP, and Raffy Santana against RHP.
a platoon of those 2 guys can give you Jayson Werth #s (probably less HRs, but up there in OPS, etc.)
2) Beltran I don’t see 2nd, unless Reyes is having a monster year and loving 3rd. But I would love to see Jose go to the 2 hole (keeping slappy lead off). But either one works. Could also just put Beltran back in the 4 hole, and DW 3rd.
So, my preferred line ups:
castillo/pagan/reyes/wright/bay/frenchy/murphy/barajas (can flip 6 & 7)
Castillo/reyes/wright/beltran/bay/frenchy-pagan/murphy/barajas
And man, if the pitching holds up, that is a damned fine lineup with CB back in it!
trs86
3/3/2010-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed, top 5 hitters would not change any when Beltran returns you just sub out Pagan for Beltran and readjust the lineup. You would still end up with the same people most likely in the same spots.
I would go
Castillo, Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Bay, Francouer, Murphy, catcher right now but I also have no idea who will be doing well when Beltran returns. There is also a significant thought to the merit of
Castillo, Reyes, Wright, Bay, Beltran as the #5 slot leads off the 2nd most and Beltran being a SH could also break up the 3 RH in a row. Regardless if we have a stretch in our lineup that has any combination of Reyes, Wright, Bay and Beltran we will score runs.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
I most definitely do care, about the topic AND your take on it.
I have to say, your idea about the Pagan/Frenchy thing is really interesting, and while I had been liking Beltran 2nd, Jose/Wright/Beltran/Bay 2-5 sounds great. I very seriously think Slappy/Murph/Barajas must start the year 1/7/8.
Murph can someday hopefully be a 2 hitter, but right now with all those doubles and the so-so OBP, 7th is very clearly the spot for him. I think an everyday Frenchy must have the Murph protection, which will clearly be better than the Barajas protection.
As usual, well thought out and expressed, and I really like it.
trs86
3/3/2010-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
Guys there is merit to our discussions on if Reyes should bat 3rd. However, the part with Castillo leading off as much as we like it there is no chance it is happening. He’s either 2, 7 or 8.
Mr North Jersey
3/3/2010-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
Wow so much debate over a lineup.
Who bats 1st who bats 2nd who bats 3rd who bats 8th
Who, who, who, who? I don’t know, oh 3rd base.
Thank you Lou Costello.
Reyes batting 3rd or 1st. Castillo batting 2nd or 8th. Everyone has made valid points as to why one should bat so and so here as opposed to there.
What Jerry decides on who knows what that will be. Let’s see what works best and lets just not be afraid to change things up.
The suggestion that Reyes batting 3rd or Castillo batting 8th is ludicrous is what we don’t need. If the lineup works with whichever scenario is what’s important.
Jerry has done well in my opinion (and I am no Jerry fan) by not locking himself to the opinion Reyes can only help the lineup by batting 1st. If it works we will soon find out and he can always change it back worst case scenario.
Kingman 26
3/3/2010-12:55pm at 12:55 pm (UTC -4)
Actually, every word of yours is cool, but batting Castillo 8th is beyond ludicrous. For the previously stated reasons PLUS it means Barajas bats 7th, which is also kind of kooky with his offensive game.
Can anyone cite a player with Slappy’s OBP batting 8th?
I think, for many of us, looking back at the very talented teams which missed the postseason by 1 game 2 straight years dramatically demonstrates the importance of every game. Hence, getting even a handful more runs at the right time over 162 games can mean playoffs this year instead of another winter of discontent.
trs86
3/3/2010-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
Right, sorry but you could have merit for Reyes hitting 1, 2, 3, 5 even. Castillo you could have uh 1 and 2.
Mr North Jersey
3/3/2010-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
Numbers don’t dictate all. It’s not that easy you have to look at the entire lineup and see what works best.
I don’t say batting Castillo 8th is a must I am simply saying you can’t just dismiss it without weighing the options.
I can see a scenario where a Pagan Murphy Reyes Wright Bay can be an explosive 1 thru 5 in all of MLB. Where speed power and batting can be the triple threat.
I can also see it being a bust the point is to be open to the possibility.
trs86
3/3/2010-1:23pm at 1:23 pm (UTC -4)
But the problem with your lineup is again that you are currently switching a guy that can’t get on base for a guy who can. If Murphy proves he can get on base then you can reassess.
Mr North Jersey
3/3/2010-1:29pm at 1:29 pm (UTC -4)
That is it don’t be afraid to see what you have based on the past. If Jerry thinks the lineup can be better with Murphy in the 2 hole so be it try it out now see what you think and that’s all.
This fear to experiment in the Spring is what I don’t get.
trs86
3/3/2010-1:31pm at 1:31 pm (UTC -4)
But you still have to go based on previous experience to an extent. Why not have Wright lead off? Right now Murphy is a low OBP guy with gap power. Sounds like a 7 hitter to me.
Mr North Jersey
3/3/2010-1:42pm at 1:42 pm (UTC -4)
Wow I am not suggesting go off the deep end and pick the lineup out of a hat.
LoL
Simply put if Manuel thinks the lineup is better with Pagan and Murphy at the top let him try it and see.
If he feels Castillo is best in the 2 hole great so be it whatever gets the best results.
trs86
3/3/2010-1:44pm at 1:44 pm (UTC -4)
That makes our debate pointless though. LOL.
Mr North Jersey
3/3/2010-1:51pm at 1:51 pm (UTC -4)
Sorry you feel that way. On that note I guess there is no need to continue discussing it.
Mr North Jersey
3/3/2010-1:57pm at 1:57 pm (UTC -4)
I guess we can always discuss Minaya.
trs86
3/3/2010-2:00pm at 2:00 pm (UTC -4)
What did he do wrong now?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/3/2010-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
Omar once said… “I regret, don’t regret, I mean I regret, but don’t regret, I regret, but don’t regret…. What I want to say is that I regret, but don’t regret….”
“A specialist who specializes in special surgeries”
balsley
3/9/2010-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
Put your best feet forward.
1-Reyes, 2-Wright, 3-Murphy/Beltran, 4-Bay, 5-Pagan/Murphy, 6-Francoeur, 7-Castillo, 8-Catcher
This lineup takes a little depth from the lineup but puts your best hitters at the plate in the 1st inning. Wright’s power was suspect last season but his contact and speed were there, so why not hit Wright in the 2spot?? He’ll see more fastballs and it’ll improve his power numbers. The PERFECT example: look at the offensive numbers and record of the 2004 Houston Astros after they acquired Beltran and when they eventually moved him to the 2spot. Worth a shot.