There’s some expression about hope and spring and baseball (perhaps the expression is a cousin to Alexander Pope’s bromide that hope springs eternal) which neatly expresses my optimism about the 2010 Mets. Usually, my spring optimism is founded in self-interest; as a season ticket holder, I have a financial stake in the team’s success. As a Mets fan, I also tend to rationalize our chances for the coming season to overcome my and every Mets fans’ natural cynicism.
Certainly my optimism for this coming season in particular includes the usual doses of economic self-interest and cynical self-delusion. But in pondering the Mets’ realistic chances for battling for a playoff spot in 2010, I actually came up with 10 reasons to believe I’ll be over-paying for playoff tickets come September.
1. Ignore 2009. It didn’t happen. Tom Seaver threw out the first pitch, then Mike Pelfry’s third pitch to Jody Gerut froze midway to plate and – now it’s spring 2010. But whatever may have happened between April 13 and October 4, 2009, does not indicate a trend; it was an aberration. Many good teams suffer fallow seasons between bounteous ones, including two others this decade. The White Sox won 99 games and the World Series in 2005 and 90 games in 2006, then fell of a table with just 72 victories in 2007. A trend? Nope – the pale hose bounced back with 89 wins in 1989. A starker example: In 2003, the Diamondbacks won 84 games; the next year, they won just 51 (including a Randy Johnson perfect game), but came back in 2005 to win 77 games (a 26-game improvement), 76 in 2006 and 90 in 2007. Despite the disappointments of 2006-2008, the Mets are still a good team and will bounce back.
2. Mets Are Pre-Disastered. In the World According to Garp, Robin Williams, after watching a small plane crash into the house he and Mary Beth Hurt were about to buy, happily proclaimed they were safe because the house had been “pre-disastered.” I don’t want to jinx anything by saying “nothing else can go wrong,” but you have to admit that last year’s bizarre litany of disability was akin to a small plane crashing into a house you were about to buy. And I’m ignoring Carlos Beltran missing the first month or so of 2010 – A-Rod missed a month with the Yanks last season, and their season turned out just fine.
3. All-Star Lineup: Met fans may be cynical about a lot of things, but five of the Mets’ eight position starters have combined to earn more All-Star elections/selections, 16, than any other team in the NL save one: the Washington Nationals, who have 18, but 14 of these belong to Ivan Rodriguez. Unlike I-Rod, the Mets all-stars – Reyes (1), Castillo (3), Beltran (5), Bay (3) and Wright (4) , their 1-5 hitters – are all in what should be the prime of their careers. And remember: even with the Mets’ depleted lineup, they tied the Dodgers for the league lead in hitting (.270) in 2009. What about batters 6-8 you ask?
4. Jeff Francoeur, Daniel Murphy, Omir Santos Get Full Undistracted Seasons: The first two guys were the Mets’ leading home run hitters last season. Francoeur, who suffered through an emotionally traumatic trade from his home-town team and away from his best friend mid-season, had a combined 15 homers between Atlanta and New York, 10 in 75 games with the Mets (vs. 5 in 82 games with the Braves). In fact, Francoeur drove in 41 runs and hit .311 for the Mets, vs. 35 RBI/.250 with the Braves, which says to me he likes it here. Murphy led all players wearing only Met uniforms the whole season in HRs with 12 – after surviving the public ignominy of his disaster in left field and then trying to figure out how to play first base. Santos, who was asked to fill in for a fill in for a starter, produced 7 HRs and 40 RBI in essentially a half season of at bats. Extrapolated to a full season means 14 HRs and 80 RBI, not bad for a fourth-string catcher, if he gets the bulk of the catching ABs. With each of these three now relaxed and settled in his new city and positions, and no longer under pressure to provide all the offense, the Mets could potentially get at least 15 HRs from seven of the eight position spots in the order.
5. Tony Bernazard Is Gone: And everyone’s hitting should improve. According to the Daily News’ John Harper, Bernazard forced an opposite field hitting philosophy throughout the organization that apparently screwed up everyone’s swing. If everyone’s swing returns to their natural pull-hitting proclivities (and it seems the easiest way to hit a ball out of CitiField is down one of the lines), the Mets home run output could double this year.
6. CitiField Is A Year Old: Everyone is now used to the place. More importantly, let’s finally debunk the canard that CitiField is the ballpark equivalent of Death Valley. The Mets actually hit more homers at CitiField (47) than away (46), and more home runs were hit in Met games at CitiField than in Met games on the road. And out of the 30 major league parks, CitiField was actually only the 12th hardest stadium to hit a HR in. With a completely healthy lineup and a half-height lowered centerfield wall, well, let’s just say the HR apple will have a lot more ups and downs (in a good way) in 2010.
7. Starting Pitching: I know this is supposed to be the big question mark for the Mets, and maybe my pre-season optimism has run amuck here, but I keep thinking about the years Maine, Perez and Pelfry had in 2007-08, which lets me know what they’re capable of. In 2008, Santana won 16, Pelfry 13, Maine 10 and Perez 10, and the Mets still won 89 games. I don’t think it’s overly optimistic to believe each one of these guys will equal or surpass 2008′s modest individual or cumulative totals (remember, I’m completely tossing last year as if it didn’t happen). And then there’s Jonathan Niese. I’ve been telling anyone who’d listen throughout this miserable winter – and before his impressive two-inning inter-squad stint earlier this week – my belief Niese is going have a breakthrough season. Add Niese to the mix, plus a powerful starting eight producing plenty of power, and I don’t think it’s far-fetched to project Santana, Perez, Maine, Pelfry and Niese combining to win 65 games. By comparison, the top five starters on last season’s 103-game-winning Yankees combined to win 63 games.
8. Frankie Rodriquez Will Be Busier (But Hopefully Not Too Busy): Frankie started last season with 16 straight saves and looked like a lock for 17 until Luis Castillo dropped a certain infield pop-up at Yankee Stadium. Frankie thrives under regular work, which the Mets failed to provide as the season wore on and down, and ended up with an ERA a run-and-a-half higher than his record-setting 2008. If – oh, I mean WHEN – the Mets provide Frankie with regular work (and if Manuel doesn’t over-use him), his ERA should sink back to his usual stingy level.
9. Jason Bay. I’ll admit I didn’t like this signing. I think Bay strikes out too much, is too streaky, may have health issues long term, and could be a defensive liability. But a couple of odd notions clacked into my consciousness. For instance, all four times the Mets have played in the World Series, they batted a right-handed cleanup hitter (Donn Clendenon 1969, Cleon Jones 1973, Gary Carter 1986, Mike Piazza 2000). I’m just sayin’. More concretely, having a right-handed cleanup hitter means the Mets are much less vulnerable to lefty pitching (i.e. Hamels and Happ)– obviously, right-handed hitters hit righty pitching better than left-handed hitters hit lefties. Plus, last year Bay played at Fenway Park, where left fielders play shallow because of the Green Monster looming behind them. As a result, a lot of soft liners and bloops caught at Fenway will drop in for hits at CitiField, especially since left fielders will have to play deep for Bay. Bay’s .267 average is his second-worse career low, and his 162 Ks are a career high, so I’m not concerned by either of these as I was immediately post-signing. Bay is a .280 career hitter and averages around 30 HRs and 100 RBIs. He may not hold up the full four years of his contract, but those numbers will be plenty for 2010-11.
10. Low Expectations. The best thing about winning only 72 games? Everyone thinks you’ll continue to suck. Good. High expectations seems to be a curse where the Mets are concerned. No or low expectations means the players will be more relaxed (the only white-knuckled Met will be Omar) and we’ll be happy with any success the Mets provide. And I’m optimistic they could provide success at least 90 times, if not more, out of 162 in 2010.
And if things don’t quite work out the way I’ve laid it out here, I don’t want to know.
———-
Apropos of nothing, I highly recommend “The Year Babe Ruth Hit 104 Home Runs,” by Bill Jenkinson, who meticulously documents what many of us have sadly forgotten (including myself) – under ridiculous conditions and batting in behemothic ballparks that make CitiField seem like a Little League field, Babe Ruth was an insanely great baseball player and a tape measure home run-hitting freak of nature.
128 comments
ceetar
3/4/2010-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
ahem. _I_ am the self proclaimed Optimistic Mets Fan. This post was MINE to write!
You’re post is a little outdated though on the Santos part. He’s almost definitely destined for AAA, and I didn’t really care for his attitude/response to it. But that’s fine, the Mets are better with Barajas.
I agree on the book. that’s a great book, I wrote a longer review on it on my site some time ago.
I’ve sorta been referring to it as the ’09-’10 season like a winter sport.
GravediggerHebner
3/4/2010-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
I love it, especially the pre-disastered bit. Well done Mr. B.
njstuckintx
3/4/2010-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
#7… It is still a big concern for me. Neise gives me Optomism. Maine (and to a degree Perez and Pelf) give me acid reflux.
As for #10, that will be a driving factor to the players, i think. “You think we’re crap?!? I’ll show you!” I hope they do that all the to October.
nice read, mr.baby
trs86
3/4/2010-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
Nice job, obviously Santos is done but other than that and your opinion on the Bay signing I am in complete agreement.
wannybackstra
3/4/2010-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
Castillo in his prime?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
Yes! His OBP should reflect that!
stickguy
3/4/2010-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
too bad it isn’t football. In baseball he has to play on defense too.
Kingman 26
3/4/2010-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
I, along with Ceetar and Stick, am a charter member of the Catatonic Optimists, and I really liked and appreciated this piece.
The pre-disastered thing is absolutely great.
As is the comment on the starters. Pelf/Maine/Ollie may be the Axis of Uncertainty, but they are all young, all have good stuff, and all might indeed revert to their 2007/2008 selves.
Thanks for this; the Met world needs a lot more if it.
Well-thought out, well-written, and totally reasonable.
ceetar
3/4/2010-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
I disagree about Pelf/Maine/Ollie reverting. They all have the potential to EXCEED that and have career years.
Kingman 26
3/4/2010-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
OK, fine, I see you and raise you—I say that Pelf will be very good, and Ollie will have his best year EVER and be the surprise of the league (well, to everyone except you, me, and MF4D)! Only Maine I somewhat worry about….
stickguy
3/4/2010-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
I agree that Pelf and Ollie will break through this year.
Maine I actually like the best of the bunch, with the only concern being if his shoulder is strong enough to hold up to regular use. If so, he breaks out too.
The Mets are actually going to have a very young but veteran rotation this year. Usually a good thing.
stickguy
3/4/2010-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
remember, I am firmly on record as stating that the SP will be a strength of the team this year.
Nice to see a few more converts though!
ceetar
3/4/2010-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
The more I think about it the less I’m worried about the pitchers. Niese/5thdude is currently at the top of the list though.
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2010-12:08pm at 12:08 pm (UTC -4)
I loved the “World According to Garp” reference. Classic scene!
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
These days I seemed to have become the face of negativism. Criticizing the Mets on everything and even on small unimportant clerical errors by nurses and lab techs. But it’s because I’m (quitting smoking so my stress level has gone up or) very excited about this season and can’t wait to see how it unfolds.
I am optimistic about this season. Despite all the non-sense I’ve commented here, I think the Mets will be competitive and will compete for a PO spot.
Now can we get some real baseball game started already!!!
Kingman 26
3/4/2010-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
Hey, nice work on quitting smoking! Almost ten years for me and I still miss it.
CaseStreet
3/4/2010-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
too bad there isn’t anything out there to smoke without all the health risks
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-12:24pm at 12:24 pm (UTC -4)
well…..
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2010-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
Good for you. As a former smoker I know how difficult it is to quit. I used to be what is known as a chain smoker. Smoking 4 packs a day at my worst. I have not smoked a cigarette for 20 years now and crazy as it may sound I still enjoy the smell of a freshly lit cigarette. I just don’t act on it.
Word of advice from experience you better find something to offset the desire to smoke like gum chewing or sex lol because if you resort to eating you will gain a lot of weight and fast.
Kingman 26
3/4/2010-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
I LOVE the smell of second hand smoke a lot of the time…it is like therapy!
Wow, 4 packs–very impressive!
I smoked cigars a lot the first year I quit, then the desire lessened over time.
Gum is good. Sex is better.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
Gum is good. Sex is better. <– YES!!!
stickguy
3/4/2010-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
Gum is easier if you have to commute.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
well…..
LMAO!!
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-12:29pm at 12:29 pm (UTC -4)
Wow.. 4 packs a day. I’m more like 4 cigarettes a day.
I’ve been on and off past 4-6 years, so hopefully it’ll work this time.
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2010-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
I never met anyone that quit on the 1st try. It’s the not giving up when you fail that gets you eventually over the hump.
Hopefully like you said it’ll work this time.
BTW I don’t know if you drink but for me I knew I hacked it when I went to a party drank and got pretty buzzed and still had no desire to light up.
Kingman 26
3/4/2010-1:14pm at 1:14 pm (UTC -4)
Very, very similar experiences for me…I had quit 5-6 times at least, but in 2000, I was sick of it; sick of spending the money, and sick of being a slave to cigarettes.
Plus, the last two girlfriends I had had then had gotten me into the habit of never smoking in the apartment, and eventually not even smoking in my car, so all of this wound up making it a lot easier.
And yes, when I have drinks and am smelling delicious second-hand smoke and still have zero desire to light one up, I know I have it beat.
However, when I reach about 70, I might take it up again…I really did love smoking.
CaseStreet
3/4/2010-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
good stuff baby
I’ll be more optimistic and say the starting rotation wins 75 games:
Santana 20
Pelf 15
Perez 15
Maine 15
Niese 10
BTW, how crazy was the 1971 rotation:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/1971-pitching.shtml
ceetar
3/4/2010-12:21pm at 12:21 pm (UTC -4)
Let’s say they lose 66% as many as they win. That’s still 37 NDs, and with our bullpen we should win at least half of those. Half is 94 wins.
stickguy
3/4/2010-12:31pm at 12:31 pm (UTC -4)
2006 was like this. Nothing special out of the rotation (and a ton of guys making starts) but the pen got a lot of wins.
Same thing happened the last couple of years with the Phils.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
Nice… I like it…
wannybackstra
3/4/2010-12:23pm at 12:23 pm (UTC -4)
The Yankees’ starters won 63 games last season en route to a 103 win season.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
I say Santana alone can win more games than the entire Yankees rotation!!
stickguy
3/4/2010-12:35pm at 12:35 pm (UTC -4)
that was just the top 5 guys. Doesn’t count other guys making starts I don’t think.
wannybackstra
3/4/2010-1:29pm at 1:29 pm (UTC -4)
it does.
stickguy
3/4/2010-1:54pm at 1:54 pm (UTC -4)
all SPs on the yankees only got to 63 wins? Seems low fro the number of games they won, but whatever.
wannybackstra
3/4/2010-12:20pm at 12:20 pm (UTC -4)
I can honestly say I agree with almost none of this. However, I do agree with number 1, which makes perhaps the most important point on the side of optimism that 2009 may have been an aberration. 2006-2008 was a good run of competitive play and this team has not become significantly older or less talented.
CaseStreet
3/4/2010-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
you gotta admit the lineup is pretty good and will be that much better once Beltran comes back
wannybackstra
3/4/2010-1:10pm at 1:10 pm (UTC -4)
No doubt. That paragraph in the piece lost me with the inclusion of Castillo as a prime year player. But certainly the top of the Mets order looks to be very strong and the bottom could pass if Murphy develops with his potential.
udontmesswthejohan
3/4/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
” Bernazard forced an opposite field hitting philosophy throughout the organization that apparently screwed up everyone’s swing.”
I seem to remember eveyone lauding this approach last spring. Just goes to show, it’s all about results.
I also think you hit the nail on the head regarding the low expectations. For the first time in about 4 years, no one is expecting anything from the Mets. Hopefully they can use that to their advantage.
saltygary
3/4/2010-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
Reyes got scratched from the lineup today:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2010/news/story?id=4964535
njstuckintx
3/4/2010-12:38pm at 12:38 pm (UTC -4)
They extracted blood from that scratch.
udontmesswthejohan
3/4/2010-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
11. This team is due, and more importantly, the fans deserve it.
fongy2
3/4/2010-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
There were longtime Cub fans who died before any of us
were born who said that many,many,many times!
udontmesswthejohan
3/4/2010-1:29pm at 1:29 pm (UTC -4)
Ha – I know, I thought of the Cubs, the minute after I posted it.
fongy2
3/4/2010-12:43pm at 12:43 pm (UTC -4)
And now for some realistic projections: Johan 16wins,Pelf 13wins,
Maine&Ollie combine to win 20, Niese eventually wins a spot AND
8 games. Reyes stays healthy and is pretty much the player he
was from ’05-’08. Wright regains most of his power and is an
All-Star again. Bay goes at least .280/30/100, Beltran doesn’t
return until close to Memorial Day and finishes with numbers very
close to tose he put up his first season with The Mets.
Frenchy shows the second half of last season was no fluke, Murphy
gets better BUT not ALOT better, Castillo goes on the DL for several weeks by Memorial Day BUT not much is lost @2B with Cora
there.None of the veteran Catchers give us much AND Thole gets
the everyday job coming out of the Allstar break.
Jerry is gone by the AllStar break and either HoJo or Oberkfell gets the interim job. This team finishes right around
.500 and in Third place. Omar is finally let go within a few days
after the season ends.
CaseStreet
3/4/2010-12:48pm at 12:48 pm (UTC -4)
yeah, that’s realistic.
the team doesn’t really have any injuries yet still only finishes around .500 and in third place?
I’m curious to know why you think Beltran will be out till Memorial Day and finishes with numbers close to 05.
fongy2
3/4/2010-12:55pm at 12:55 pm (UTC -4)
Because according to Gary,Mex and RJ on Tuesday,
“team officials” said he’s about 4 weeks away from
engaging in baseball activities and then would be
about six weeks away. That is of course, best case
scenario, ahd we all know how that goes with us.
So that puts him into the middle of May…At least.
When he does return, its hard to believe he comes
out of the box like a monster…So… For 4 months, returning from injury,.280/15/80 sounds
about right to me.
saltygary
3/4/2010-1:19pm at 1:19 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not counting on Beltran for this season. The team needs to act like he won’t be around. If he can come back and contribute then all the better.
fongy2
3/4/2010-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
I thought I was being generous!
Could be 4th place.
The Phils are the closest thing to a lock in the game to win a Division AND while sad to say the
Bravos’ do look like a better team,However if
any team gets crushed with injuries this season,
it could well be them.
Still though, there are the Fish to deal with…
And if their youngsters con’t to get better….
Well, then, it could easily be 4th place for us.
stickguy
3/4/2010-1:36pm at 1:36 pm (UTC -4)
Phils only a lock if they stay remarkably healthy again. If they have a couple of LT injuries to key players (like the Mets did) they will be scuffling with the rest of the pack. No particular depth for any of those guys.
They are also getting somewhat up in age (into their 30s) so the probablity of injuries should go up.
Wouldn’t be the first time the wheels came off a dynasty with no notice!
fongy2
3/4/2010-1:59pm at 1:59 pm (UTC -4)
Sorry my friend, unless they go through what we did last season,
they are a lock to win 95+ and the
division.Most of that group is right in the middle of their primes,they have no holes in their
line-up, their pitching is deep,
they’re a bunch of grinders who
know how to win and despite their
Halladay move , still has a couple
MLB ready players who will start
@AAA.
stickguy
3/4/2010-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, they have CHuG.
no team is a lock for 95 wins. Very few ever get that. And the Phils haven’t done it the last 2 years either, right?
Their pitching is not that great, or deep, and they have pen issues.
They do have a good line up, but who are all the ML ready guys being held back in AAA?
Also hard to say when guys peak out of their prime, but the sweet spot often seems to be 27-30, which all of them are past (some well past)
njstuckintx
3/4/2010-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
This synopsis is too realistic for my liking! Yikes.
I would only alter the above to say that Omar does pull a trade for what he considers to be a #2. Met’s finish tied for 2nd, but still miss the playoffs. And Jerry will be gone, but not until the Mets are elimintated from the playoffs.
And I pray you are wrong on Beltran. My hopes fly high, but with tempered expectations, maybe I’ll just be stabbed in the heart instead of having it ripped out of my chest this time.
fongy2
3/4/2010-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
I pray I’m wrong too!
I’m not sure Omar will be in position by the deadline to make any major moves.
Again, I think Waterloo may be as early as late May,six game homestand again Phils and Yanks.
This I believe starts at 42 games in.
If we’re in the 20-22/22-20 range,mostly OR all
w/o Beltran in the line-up AND we get slapped
around by the Phils and Yanks,losing 5 of 6,
It’ll be ugly!!!
trs86
3/4/2010-2:07pm at 2:07 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah because the Phillies will be 15 games up then. Of course last year in July they were barely .500 and 1 game up. That could never happen again.
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:11pm at 2:11 pm (UTC -4)
No, BUT if we lose 5 or 6 of 6 to the phils and yanks entering those
two series 2 or 3 back, we’ll be close to dead….And Jerry will be
gone!
trs86
3/4/2010-2:22pm at 2:22 pm (UTC -4)
Jerry may be gone but again how are we close to dead? Look at the Phillies record last year at the ASB, 2008 at the ASB, 2007 at the ASB.
2009 July 5th up 1 4 games above .500
2008 July 8th 48-43
2007 July 7th 43-44
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:28pm at 2:28 pm (UTC -4)
I really meant dead for the division.
Which again, its sort of a waste to even talk about b/c
the Phils are clearly the Division
and NL favs right now. We need ALOT to go real well to
even be in the WC hunt.
trs86
3/4/2010-2:30pm at 2:30 pm (UTC -4)
Again how will we be dead for the division unless the Phillies buck their trend of starting slow and keeping everyone in it? We could be 10 games under .500 in May and still be in it unless the Phillies do something they have not done. Start quickly. Now if the Mets did not keep pace with them in the 2nd half then yeah we would have no shot. Only thing is for the most part until last year’s injuries it has came down to the last week.
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:37pm at 2:37 pm (UTC -4)
Chief, if we were to fall to 20-28/21-27 after a bad homestand
to the phils and yanks,w/o
Beltran,with
a shaky Pen
and the Phils
somewhere b/t
6 and 10 gms
ahead of us,
YOU don’t think the Division will already be about out of reach???
LOL…Keep hope alive, Jessie!
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:38pm at 2:38 pm (UTC -4)
With THEIR recent history AND…OURS??
LOL..Indeed!
darknova306
3/4/2010-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
To me, our entire season comes down to pitching, and Pelf/Ollie/Maine just don’t fill me with confidence right now. That may change as the season progresses, but not right now.
And Francoeur as a reason for optimism? Wow. With the way his performance jumped after the trade, I have to expect that it’ll fall back to a more modest level this season.
saltygary
3/4/2010-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
I really just don’t agree with a lot of this but I appreciate your effort and it’s obviously driving good discussion. That is what counts.
#1 has been beaten to death and there isn’t much to need to delve into it, but I feel the season was far from an “aberration”. As many injuries as there were there was obviously administration issues that caused much of their problems.
#3 Having the Nationals the best in that category shows that it doesn’t matter how many all stars are on a team.
#4 Agree with Frenchy. It looks like he is already having a nice impact in the clubhouse and I feel that will transcend onto the field. Omir is outsky and Murph has a lot to prove to keep his job. And I doubt Manuel is going to give him a long leash.
#5 I skimmed that article and I just don’t know how the director of the Minor leagues can have that much effort of changing everyones approach at the plate.
Agree with #6 and #8
#7 The proof will be in the pudding. Anyone not named Johan will have a lot to prove.
#9 I don’t know about your reasoning but Bay is going to be fine.
#10 I have the biggest disagreement. The reason is the fan-base is angry and this is not the year of “it can only get better”. The players know what is on the line and so does the administration. Things will not be good if this team does not make a strong and consistent improvement.
fongy2
3/4/2010-1:29pm at 1:29 pm (UTC -4)
Just speaking for myself…”Anger” comes from the fact that this
isn’t an improved team from the same time last year AND looking at the Phils, it seems to me our hope begins with everything
going right (and then some) just to compete for the Wildcard.
saltygary
3/4/2010-1:35pm at 1:35 pm (UTC -4)
Yea that’s the crappy problem. I feel like every positive discussion of the Mets doing well hinges on everything going the right way.
I thinking the best case scenario is 2nd and the worst, I hate to say it, is 5th.
I just want this team to be healthy and show that they want to be out there. If they do that they will be fun to watch no matter what place they finish in.
stickguy
3/4/2010-1:43pm at 1:43 pm (UTC -4)
Best case is 1st. And for them to finish 5th, there will ahve to be more injuries than last year. ANd I would bet the chance of 1st is much better than the chance of 5th
By the same logic, if the Phils get slaughtered by injuries, they won’t finish .500
And the Nats could have a miracle year and win 85 games I guess.
But very rarely does absolute best case or worst case happen (although 2009 was pretty damned close for the mets).
Usually, teams fall somewhere around expectations (which have a “normal” amount of injuries built in), easiest expressed by a range (get fancy with standard deviations if you want to!)
So say the Mets, without another outlier good or bad year, are realistically a 82-88 win team. Phils say 86-92. Nats 74-80.
Just based on this, you would EXPECT the phils to be 1st and mets 2nd, but the normal ranges overlap, so it is realistic for them to flip.
But, the only way the Nats finish ahead of the Mets is for 1 or both to have outlier years.
saltygary
3/4/2010-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
That’s why it’s a worst case scenario. And I think ’09 qualifies for that.
Should be a interesting battle for second between the Mets and Braves.
trs86
3/4/2010-1:48pm at 1:48 pm (UTC -4)
Does no one remember where the Phillies were last year at the ASB?
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:09pm at 2:09 pm (UTC -4)
C’mon TRS, you really are a dreamer! We all know about the WS hangover they had,especially playing at home the first couple months.We also know how they fixed that and were w/o
question the best team,again, in the NL by
seasons end AND that they were able to push the quarter billion dollar,Allstar filled Yankee
team to six games depite getting almost nothing from their prior season’s Young Ace and getting less than nothing from their Bullpen…As well as having their Clean-up hitter suffer
one of the Worst WS in history.
If no one gets hurt AND everyone is close to norm
,we’re not within 10 games of them this season.
Sorry, I know reality bites
but it is what it is.
trs86
3/4/2010-2:12pm at 2:12 pm (UTC -4)
So there is no chance for a WS hangover this year because they did not win it? They have started slow every year and finish strong. So saying that by the end of May the Mets will be out of it if they are not over .500 is just silly.
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:16pm at 2:16 pm (UTC -4)
No actually, I’m affraid they’ll come out of the gate disapointed and pissed they didn’t win last year.
Because, that team is full of guys
who aren’t satisfied with losing in 6 to the yankees.
trs86
3/4/2010-2:23pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
No history supports it but be depressed if you want:
2009 July 5th up 1 4 games above .500
2008 July 8th 48-43
2007 July 7th 43-44
trs86
3/4/2010-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
Fongy you make it seem like they are the best team in history. I think they are better than the Mets but I also think that if things break right the Mets will compete with them just like they have every year up until the injuries last year. That’s not being a dreamer, that’s based on the truth.
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:18pm at 2:18 pm (UTC -4)
Thats YOUR take on my posts.
I don’t feel they’re one of the best ten teams I’ve seen in almost 40yrs..BUT they are CLEARLY the best team in
the NL and have been for 3+seasons
now.
trs86
3/4/2010-2:23pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
I agree they have been the best team, one that is very beatable and struggles in the 1st half.
2009 July 5th up 1 4 games above .500
2008 July 8th 48-43
2007 July 7th 43-44
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:25pm at 2:25 pm (UTC -4)
Too bad they
play games through October! LOL!
trs86
3/4/2010-2:27pm at 2:27 pm (UTC -4)
Yup, but how does that make your post about the Mets being in trouble if they are .500 in May have any merit?
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:31pm at 2:31 pm (UTC -4)
You dont think that if we’re say 20-22 w/o Beltran and
get swept by
the phils and yanks AT HOME and fall to,say
20-28/21-27
AND we’re 6,7,8 back of the phils
AND maybe the Braves,
the season won’t be in serious danger of being over??
ceetar
3/4/2010-2:37pm at 2:37 pm (UTC -4)
Not even close to being over in that regard, and I doubt the Mets get swept there anyway.
I would argue that if it wasn’t for something that happened with the Mets, the Phillies never would’ve made the playoffs. In ’07 they needed the Mets to collapse. in ’08 the same, coupled with Wagner going down and Manuel never finding a way to win with the bullpen. last year it was injuries, and even when they started falling, the Mets were still hanging around.
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:01pm at 2:01 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed!!!
trs86
3/4/2010-1:47pm at 1:47 pm (UTC -4)
How can we say that this team is not improved? Is a 2nd year Murphy and Bay not better than a 1st year Murphy out of position and Delgado?
stickguy
3/4/2010-1:53pm at 1:53 pm (UTC -4)
And Maine with a full year to rehab from the surgery, and a healthy and (mentally) rehabbed Ollie.
Maine and Ollie were never close to 100% last year physicially, even at the beginning. That alone is a huge improvement.
But, just from the opening of the season, you can say Bay and Delgado are a wash.
But, for the 1st 2 months of 2009, the Mets were actually fine, and even spent plenty of time in 1st place.
so you can really argue that, even if they did NOT improve, IT DOES NOT MATTER since they didn’t need to!
The key is, they are vastly improved over the September model!
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:02pm at 2:02 pm (UTC -4)
Vastly improved! LOL funny!
trs86
3/4/2010-2:16pm at 2:16 pm (UTC -4)
Again, how can you say (I am sure you are just baiting and looking for a fight today) that they are not vastly improved from September? Do you remember September’s lineup and rotation?
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:24pm at 2:24 pm (UTC -4)
No, I meant LOL funny b/c the friggin’ Corona Kings
slow pitch softball team
out at Flushing Meadows
had a better line-up than us in September!
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:01pm at 2:01 pm (UTC -4)
Better?? Not sure ’bout that!
trs86
3/4/2010-2:06pm at 2:06 pm (UTC -4)
So you honestly think that Murphy in LF and Delgado at 1B is the same as Bay in LF and Murphy at 1B after a year of experience?
If so then never-mind.
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:14pm at 2:14 pm (UTC -4)
And you think Bay,who hasn’t had an AB yet in a Met uni will be
better/more clutch than Delgado was two yrs ago?….
Again, BETTER??..Not around as good,close to it?..But BETTER??
trs86
3/4/2010-2:15pm at 2:15 pm (UTC -4)
Seriously, Delgado at 37 years old at 1B and Murphy in LF over Bay in LF and Murphy at 1B? That’s not even worth discussing.
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:22pm at 2:22 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I guess Delgado entering last season @36,coming off one of the five best AND most clutch offense seasons in
our history AND playing for a new contract,isn’t worth discussing!
Especially considering what a lock it is for Bay to have THAT type of season!
trs86
3/4/2010-2:24pm at 2:24 pm (UTC -4)
He was also coming off MORE hip issues that everyone expected a long DL stint. AS I said never-mind.
fongy2
3/4/2010-2:39pm at 2:39 pm (UTC -4)
Indeed….
BUT…You keep hope alive my friend!
Kingman 26
3/4/2010-3:07pm at 3:07 pm (UTC -4)
Fong–You know I really like and respect you, but I think you are trying too hard to get attention with this pretty silly negativity.
Not improved from this time last year??
OK, forgetting the injuries even:
Bay in LF over Murph/Shef–Not an improvement?
Franoceur in RF over Church–Not an improvement?
Barajas/Blanco at C over Schneider/Santos–Not a possible slight offensive improvement and a HUGE defensive improvement?
The bullpen overall is not going to be better??
Come on buddy, be reasonable.
fongy2
3/4/2010-4:01pm at 4:01 pm (UTC -4)
Love and respect back at ya!
I could care less about “attention”…Just posting
my opinion!
No doubt, Bay and Frenchy are better than Murphy
and Church…Which you know was my biggest beef
last spring, THEM being our corner OFers as we
were attempting to compete.
Catching is a wash! You …And others can con’t to
believe Barajas is some sort of savior..But wait
and see. Like Scheider, he is vastly overrated Defensively..And I wouldn’t expect 19HRs in our Park,with our line-up, in the NL.
Like I said, maybe a wash.
Murphy over a healthy Delgado @ 1B???
This isn’t a HUGE drop-off??
BUT best of all my friend….The BullPen???
This time last yr,we had visions of Rivera-Wetteland with Putz and KRod.
Now, we have to hold our breath with KRod b/c of what we saw the last two moinths of 2009 AND
who exactly is our lights out 8th inning guy with
big time closing experience and ability?? As Putz
was one year ago today???
stickguy
3/4/2010-1:32pm at 1:32 pm (UTC -4)
Good thing the season starts in another month. I am getting really tired of guessing/speculating about how guys are going to do!
I also hope Beltran comes back well before memorial day. Not sure why his rehab from relatively minor clean up should take that long. He didn’t have anything sewn back up, did he? Still 2 months to go before beginning of May, so who knows.
The SP I still say will be fine. As long as maines shoulder doesn’t blow out again (and if it does, he is done), 1-4 doesn’t worry me. I still wish a more solid (known quantity) #5 had been brought in, largely to help with the depth. But I do have a good feeling about Neise for the long run. And Neive could be big out of the pen.
2009 was an abberation hopefully. But all the nonsense about payback, our turn, is silly. If the talent is on the roster and stays healthy, they will win a lot of games. And they have the talent.
If nothing else, it should be a fun year.
especially that stretch in late May that Fongy likes to bring up!
Maybe the Mets have some good fortune this year, and the Phils are having a normal slow start, and they miss Halladay in that series!
so I will predict they are 24-18 after 42 games, and go 3-3 in that stretch, keeping Jerry’s job for another day.
but, if they do find themselves at 23-25 after 48 games, and decide to add a new manager at the same time that Beltran comes back, they will have a real good shot at a playoff run (assuming, of course, that 1/2 the team isn’t on the DL already!)
udontmesswthejohan
3/4/2010-1:34pm at 1:34 pm (UTC -4)
12. The Yankees can’t win every year. Right?
ceetar
3/4/2010-1:44pm at 1:44 pm (UTC -4)
Oh the mood swings. Put on Francessa driving back from lunch. He got in some shots at the Mets leading up to the update that pissed me off, but the update was “Matthews reaches on Rasmus error and Castillo drives him home with a clean single. And David Wright has just gone deep to make it 3-0!.” Smiled the rest of the way to work. (Francessa didn’t return from commercial in that time)
stickguy
3/4/2010-1:49pm at 1:49 pm (UTC -4)
Expanding on my reply just above, there do seem to be a lot of fans that seem to be conceding a good year for other teams in the division, but expecting a bad year from the Mets.
That is, every team has best/worst case scenerios, but it is only with the Mets that many people can’t see the needle swinging more toward the best side! Not sure if fans of every team do this, or is it a particular character trait (flaw?) of many devout Met fans?
TO resurrect one of my old chestnuts, some people see the glass as half full, some as half empty, but many Met fans figure who cares since ti is going to fall on the floor and break anyway.
My earlier thought:
Best case for the Mets is 1st. And for them to finish 5th, there will ahve to be more injuries than last year. And I would bet the chance of 1st is much better than the chance of 5th
By the same logic, if the Phils get slaughtered by injuries, they won’t finish .500
And the Nats could have a miracle year and win 85 games I guess.
But very rarely does absolute best case or worst case happen (although 2009 was pretty damned close for the mets).
Usually, teams fall somewhere around expectations (which have a “normal” amount of injuries built in), easiest expressed by a range (get fancy with standard deviations if you want to!)
So say the Mets, without another outlier good or bad year, are realistically a 82-88 win team. Phils say 86-92. Nats 74-80.
Just based on this, you would EXPECT the phils to be 1st and mets 2nd, but the normal ranges overlap, so it is realistic for them to flip.
But, the only way the Nats finish ahead of the Mets is for 1 or both to have outlier years.
saltygary
3/4/2010-2:20pm at 2:20 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t know about that. I don’t think the top 4 teams are that far apart and anything can happen. It’s just hard to not downgrade the Metsies after that the last 3 years and it’s easy to predict the Phils after the last 2.
Also, from your post above, I’m tired of the speculation as well want the season to start as well.
ceetar
3/4/2010-2:26pm at 2:26 pm (UTC -4)
indeed. I feel like i’ve been arguing the same points for months.
It’s easy to pick to Mets to fall apart because it’s happened, but that doesn’t make it right.
But you can’t ignore all the luck and fate and things that went right for the Phillies to get there. And the Marlins aren’t very good and the Braves probably took a step back, at least, they traded a known quantity for question marks and potential.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-2:18pm at 2:18 pm (UTC -4)
http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?topic_id=6261176
awesome!
saltygary
3/4/2010-2:22pm at 2:22 pm (UTC -4)
The stream quality on this is excellent.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-2:25pm at 2:25 pm (UTC -4)
they were showing the Mets game for awhile and then cut it off
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-2:23pm at 2:23 pm (UTC -4)
booo~~~
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2010-2:56pm at 2:56 pm (UTC -4)
Fongy is right the Phillies are the beast team in the NL till proven otherwise.
If Mets fans want to change that we need to have the Mets go out there in 2010 and show they are better on the field.
The Phillies have won the division for 3 straight years and have been to back to back W.S. having won 1 of 2. Something as Mets fans we already know.
It’s obvious we have too many question marks to realistically say we are better than last year.
Murphy better or worse?
Reyes better or worse?
Wright better or worse?
Castillo better or worse?
Francoeur better or worse?
Beltran better or worse?
Perez better or worse?
Maine better or worse?
Pelfrey better or worse?
Niese better or worse?
KRod better or worse?
you can make a reasonable argument for why there should be concern with all the above. Do I expect most or all of them to perform worse? -No
The thing is while the Phillies have a lot of question marks also, they are coming off winning seasons and get the benefit of the doubt till proven otherwise.
The quote of this Spring from the media is “the Mets need everything to break right” to compete.
If we had a dollar every time this was said we’d be rich.
Some believe if the media says it it must be true. I don’t share that logic I think we just need enough to break right and enough to break wrong for the Phillies to put us over the top.
Having spent all Winter mad at how the F.O. retooled the team I am at a point that all I can do is hope the F.O. can prove me wrong and that they actually knew what they were doing and we will be a team to be contended with in this seasons playoff race.
I don’t care if we get into the post season by 1 game or by 10 just get in and win.
Let’s Go Mets in 2010! Hopefully when the race is over we will all be smiling at how good this team actually is.
ceetar
3/4/2010-3:04pm at 3:04 pm (UTC -4)
I don’t buy into this. (still waiting on bodog to put up MLB over unders so I can gamble)
I understand there is a sense that “defending champions” get the benefit of the doubt, but big deal. They don’t actually get any real advantage by winning last year, and I want the Mets to treat the Phillies with disdain. Own the division, treat it as their right to go and take it, and then go and get it. I want to see the attitude of “If we play our game, all the Phillies can do is stand by and watch.” They have to keep us from beating them.
Kingman 26
3/4/2010-3:09pm at 3:09 pm (UTC -4)
I got down in Vegas at 9-1 for the pennant and 16-1 for the WS.
I love the over at 83 or 84 which is what I have seen.
ceetar
3/4/2010-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not in Vegas, so been waiting for an internet site, but now that I think about it I _do_ know something that lives in Vegas, works at a/the/any casino, and actually already owes me money..hmm..intriiiiguing.
Kingman 26
3/4/2010-3:26pm at 3:26 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I am in NY, but was there 10 days ago….and your scenario sounds VERY intriguing!!
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2010-3:42pm at 3:42 pm (UTC -4)
I agree and I think that is what the Mets as a whole have been doing from the start of camp while at the same time recognizing the Phillies past accomplishment.
fongy2
3/4/2010-3:50pm at 3:50 pm (UTC -4)
You do mean: “Winning last year,the year before
AND the year before THAT”…Right???
ceetar
3/4/2010-4:04pm at 4:04 pm (UTC -4)
What’s the difference? Should we give them a three game lead for that? Nope, let them try and stop us.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-3:35pm at 3:35 pm (UTC -4)
+1
metsfan4decades
3/4/2010-2:58pm at 2:58 pm (UTC -4)
Had to leave and got back in time to see the Mets tie and take the lead.
I see Reyes is ‘cleared to play’.
And I can’t believe we’re debating this early how this season is going to end.
I guess everyone is entitled to their predictions though…..
Put me in the camp of I’m not writing this season off yet. Don’t care how good some see the Phillies on paper….
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-3:15pm at 3:15 pm (UTC -4)
Wright hit a HR? cool
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-3:30pm at 3:30 pm (UTC -4)
Looks like the Mets signed Kiko Calero.
njstuckintx
3/4/2010-3:34pm at 3:34 pm (UTC -4)
I’ll buy that for a dollar!
stickguy
3/4/2010-3:34pm at 3:34 pm (UTC -4)
really? A good move.
I guess I was right when I said the off season wasn’t done by 1/15, so it was a little early to rake the Mets over the coals for having a bad one!
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/4/2010-3:38pm at 3:38 pm (UTC -4)
Yup. I saw it on Mattsblog.
metsfan4decades
3/4/2010-3:45pm at 3:45 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting.
stickguy
3/4/2010-3:33pm at 3:33 pm (UTC -4)
Well, maybe Fongy and Wright are rounding into mid season form early in ST this year!
THe phils can be favorites until proven otherwise. Who cares? That gets them nothing.
ANd the Mets don’t need “everything” to go perfectly to even have a sniff of competing. Just a normal year, with main guys staying healthy, and a few surprises stepping up.
Pretty much like every year for every team. Including the Phils.
And when you have as much talent as the Mets, you have a bigger margin for error to play with.
metsfan4decades
3/4/2010-3:46pm at 3:46 pm (UTC -4)
I pretty much agree with this. Because ultimately, you don’t play baseball on paper….
fongy2
3/4/2010-4:06pm at 4:06 pm (UTC -4)
I agree too, however it does seem that since October of 2006 The Phils have proven themselves
to be a far better team top to bottom AND have
done so both on paper AND on the field.
Mr North Jersey
3/4/2010-3:44pm at 3:44 pm (UTC -4)
I thought the Yankee / Phillie game was going to be televised today.
fongy2
3/4/2010-4:07pm at 4:07 pm (UTC -4)
I think its tonight.
metsfan4decades
3/4/2010-4:22pm at 4:22 pm (UTC -4)
The game was at 1:05 today but will be televised tonight on MLB.
Phillies won it with 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th.
metsfan4decades
3/4/2010-3:56pm at 3:56 pm (UTC -4)
Well, I see Sean Green is being Sean Green here this afternoon. Just gave up two runs.
Interesting conversation between Ronnie and Kevin, concerning steroids and Mark McGwire.
Kevin said for him, he felt McGwire just didn’t go all the way with his admission.
Ronnie said that’s the problem, no one has. And his take, as an ex-ballplayer, the reason is b/c deep down, when all is said and done, each of these guys cares about those records on the back of their baseball cards. It’s what defines them as a ML player and they’re not ready to tell MLB and the public ‘you decide if I deserves those records’….
metsfan4decades
3/4/2010-4:25pm at 4:25 pm (UTC -4)
Ike Davis just hit a grandslam.
Mets 17, Cards 10.