It’s not just Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya that have to worry about fast starts to the season or their jobs being in jeopardy. The same case could be made for Jeff Francoeur,
Daniel Murphy, and Rod Barajas. The way Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, and Josh Thole have been playing in a way this spring that makes you suspect they’ll be knocking at the door to Citi Field sooner rather than later.
With Reyes possibly being out some, or all, of April the pressure on the starting pitching has just doubled. The most recent report on April suggests that he may be back closer to mid April, but that’s still a rough estimate.
We’ve known for a while that the season was going to hinge on the starting pitching. The offense was projected to be one of the top in the league, and surely would’ve won some games on it’s own even when the pitching struggled. With Reyes and Beltran out, they may not have that cushion for a while, but this doesn’t mean the Mets are doomed to a 9-13 type record to start the season.
The fast start is more important than ever, and if Maine, Perez, and Pelfrey can have a good month of April the Mets will still win games. We all know they’re each capable of pitching good games. It was expected before the season that they could definitely pitch competitively and keep us in games, but now they may be pressured to actually win the games. Instead of quality start performances and limiting the opponents to three runs over six innings, stepping up and going seven innings and occasionally limiting the other teams to merely one or two runs becomes important to the Mets early success.
This isn’t to say the Mets lineup is useless, and that they won’t occasionally put up a crooked number, but Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are two of the most irreplaceable players in the game today. The season is never won and lost in April, but if the pitching can step up and win more games than they lose, not only will it minimize the damage caused by losing Reyes and Beltran, it will set them up nicely once they return.
This post brought to you by the self-proclaimed Optimistic Mets Fan.
137 comments
njstuckintx
3/16/2010-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
I like that there is pressure on the position players with hungry young players with mounds of potential ready to make the leap. I don’t like that there is pressure on MOP to do well because if they don’t all is lost, being that there is no calvary coming to save their skins.
stickguy
3/16/2010-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
who knows. In 2006, it seemed like they were plugging in a new SP every week, and it didn’t seem to slow them down.
So, even if some of MOP does falter or break down, you just might see a replacement (maybe one not even currently on the team) step in and do even better.
Look at the Phils. Their 2 best SPs in the 2nd half, by far, were Lee and Happ. Neither one was even on the team to start the season (Happ may have been in the pen, but was far from the rotation). So, you really never know.
njstuckintx
3/16/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
And I do hope. Heck, we could prob. not lose a ton of prospects and pick up Meche and a Sonnestine type. Nothing crazy like a Lee or Hallady trade and they could get some stabalization for sure.
stickguy
3/16/2010-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
and most likely, if the season starts and the rotation is struggling, Omar will troll around and find an overpaid vet to pick up. They did seem to save some budget room to do it!
rustyjr
3/17/2010-7:46am at 7:46 am (UTC -4)
ya think smoltz would come out of retirement mid season if he was offered a contract?
trs86
3/17/2010-7:53am at 7:53 am (UTC -4)
Yes, but with the Mets? Don’t know. You know I am at least half way interested in Pedro coming back. He wants to pitch now. Let him do the first half of the year and then Niese can come in.
stickguy
3/17/2010-8:30am at 8:30 am (UTC -4)
Smoltz pretty much is whoring himself out now. he will go anywhere for a job to keep playing, especially if the team is in the hunt for the post season.
If they got the spot open, and he looks good, give it a try. Same for Pedro. I try not to hold the past against anyone.
remember, root for the laundry, not the player.
Might not apply to victorino though. That could be tough…
Oh, and the idea of a tag team 5th starter works for me. Get one guy, burn him out, then switch horses to a fresh arm (hows that for a mixed metaphore?)
stickguy
3/16/2010-10:26am at 10:26 am (UTC -4)
good point Ceets that if the Mets stay in the race early, then they will be getting a major boost when the big guys come back, not to mention to their confidence!
But, don’t expect them to be going longer outings in April. If anything, it usually works the other way, so the long/middle relief will need to step up early.
But, they have pelnty of built in days off, and likely lose a game or 2 to weather, so they should get rest.
And it probably qualifies as a good problem if the guys in the minors are having such monster years you have to find a place for them! As long as it isn’t the flip side, where the Met players are tanking so bad you need to find a replacement ASAP!
ceetar
3/16/2010-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)
Agreed, it’s unlikely any of these guys are pitching complete games in April. And if Maine does either Warthen or Manuel should be shot on the spot (due to his fatigued shoulder issues and the idea that full games in April may mean no games in September)
Arguably the bullpen may have more of the pressure to not let any games get away early on when we need to keep above water, but I don’t know who to call out in the bullpen since it’s barely decided for sure and can change on a whim.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-10:42am at 10:42 am (UTC -4)
IMO, the amount of games we win in April will rest squarely with the SP. They need to really step it up to compensate for the loss of Reyes and Beltran.
You either outscore your opponents – i.e. great offense
or
Outpitch your opponents – i.e. keep them off the board.
Unless one or two of our replacements or regulars is really hot in April, it’s going to be up to the pitchers to keep runs off the board.
ceetar
3/16/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
That’s really the hope with theo ffense. That Pagan approximates the production he’s put up with the Mets, which while not Beltran, would still be very nice.
You can’t replace Reyes, but if Murphy or Francoeur or even Barajas or the SS can have a hot couple of weeks, the offense is not bad at all.
stickguy
3/16/2010-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
MF4D reminded me of one of the many points I thought of but forget by the time I was posting.
all players have hot and cold streaks. Including the core, and the support guys.
So, even have all 4 studs in the line up does not mean they will all hit at the same time.
And even the fillers will have hot stretches (a week? A month? Who knows).
So, quite likely that a few support guys have a hot start. What they really can’t afford is Wright or Bay starting out ice cold, since obviously, Beltran and Reyes won’t be producing!
ceetar
3/16/2010-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
Right, so if a support guy has a hot start, it helps negate the loss of Reyes as long as everyone else is average.
This is also why the Phillies will not win more than the 92.5 games I bet under on them. Offense streaks more than pitching for the most part, and their team, while it has the ‘potential’ to have good pitching sometimes, is mainly an offensive (literally, and referring to the bats) team and as we saw last year, will have a couple of weeks of bad play for a while.
Arguably the Mets are the same way, and it’ll come down to if Pelfrey/Perez/Maine are better than Hamels/Happ/Blanton.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-11:14am at 11:14 am (UTC -4)
Carlin’s substitute on Loud Mouths last night (can’t remember his name) said Phils are a lock for the division. ‘Write it down, no point in discussing’.
Bah….
They keep rolling the dice with their core/starters staying healthy all year, they’re gonna come up craps at some point.
And their bench? I don’t see where they’ve got any depth there.
This could go so many ways.
ceetar
3/16/2010-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
As most seasons could. nothing is a lock, particularly the Phillies, who pretty much got a bye last year.
Lupica had a stupid article on Manuel and not firing him today as well.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-11:25am at 11:25 am (UTC -4)
That’s the first real strong pro Manuel article I’ve read this past year.
prismo
3/16/2010-11:33am at 11:33 am (UTC -4)
They’re certainly the heavy favorites, but no one in baseball is ever a lock for anything. What happens when Halladay gets injured in April and needs Tommy John. Are they still a lock then? Anything can happen in baseball.
(disclaimer: the Nationals are a lock not to win the division)
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
LOL – well don’t tell the Nats fans that….
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/16/2010-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
Strasburg could be the next Tim Lincecum and help the Nats to win the WS!
.
.
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.
.
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.
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.
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.
.
in 2020!
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
I am not worried about the lineup whatsoever. unless we play the Phillies or Cards we have the best lineup on the field.
What worries me is our starting pitching. Unless we see significant improvement from Pelf and one of Ollie/Maine we will be in trouble…
The only way we can maybe get by is if Takahashi can be a top of the rotation guy as Nieve, Misch, Figueroa are nothing more than plug in guys and Niese can estalish himself as well.
trs86
3/16/2010-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Guys I am most worried with Maine. I am afraid he will never be the same and I am also afraid he believes he will never be the same. While I am very confident in our group of #5 starters we do not have anyone to step into that mid rotation guy. Don’t get started on Pineiro, Marquis or Garland because they are not mid-rotation either. Neither is Sonnanstine. Only hope we have if Maine falters is a bigger trade for a guy like Meche or Arroyo or just hope that Perez and Pelfrey step up, which I believe they will. Just Maine scares me a lot RIGHT NOW. Things could change between now and the beginning of the season but Maine needs to have some good outings here.
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
if Pelfrey can pitch anywhere near his 2008 form and if at least one of the guys competing for the 5th spot steps it up then it will offset the inevitable John Maine injury and Ollie meltdowns.
I just hope Pelfrey’s 09 season was a fluke not the other way around
trs86
3/16/2010-11:23am at 11:23 am (UTC -4)
I think Pelfrey and Perez will be fine and one of the #5′s will step up with #5 type #’s but that may mean we are still missing a guy with #3 numbers. If Maine falters we got 1, 4, 4, 5, 6.
ceetar
3/16/2010-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
There is no formula for “#3″ type guys. That’s severely overrated. I’m most worried about Maine as well though, but I don’t think he’s gonna have a 2-20 type season. But maybe more middling, Blanton type numbers.
trs86
3/16/2010-11:35am at 11:35 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, you know I am not big on numbers either. What I am trying to express is that I view a healthy Maine as a mid-rotation guy. We will be down a mid-rotation guy and do not have any guys that can step into that role in my opinion out of our #5 candidates.
trs86
3/16/2010-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
Also as far as your Blanton comparison I would jump for joy if he could give us what Blanton did last year. I just don’t even see him giving us the innings right now. I am still not sure he is healthy.
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
i am expecting Perez to be slightly worse than 08, Pelf slightly worse than 07 and Maine being the same as 09.
While Manuel is going to put him in the bullpen to start, my hope is that Takahashi gets a chance to start sometime around Memorial Day and goes out there and becomes the #3 SP as our version of Hiroki Kuroda.
trs86
3/16/2010-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
I am not so sure Taka goes in the pen first. To me he is leading the #5 starter race.
tkfj
3/16/2010-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
I agree, I hope Jerry and Omar see it that way too.
njstuckintx
3/16/2010-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
I have to agree. I still wish Niese would prove me wrong a take hold of the 5 spot, but how do you not pencil in Taka right now?
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
I agree – said the same thing to my Dad last night when we were discussing Maine. He disagrees with me. He thinks of the 3: Maine/Pelf/Perez – he actually has more confidence in Maine this year than the other 2.
After Maine’s last two seasons, that mindset the other day that he just wasn’t into coming in, in relief really bugged me. Hey John, How about you pitch up to the ability you think you’ve got, no matter what inning it was?????
trs86
3/16/2010-11:38am at 11:38 am (UTC -4)
That was just a cover for another poor outing. I expect that Maine will struggle with his shoulder for the entire season. I am just not very optimistic about him. Trying to remember it’s just spring training but he has me worried.
trs86
3/16/2010-11:22am at 11:22 am (UTC -4)
Yup, MBaron is in training from MC. ” in any case, i hope figgy is on the roster… he’s too versatile and too effective to ignore, and he’s a Mets fan, and he’s earned a break and the benefit of the doubt… at the same time, right now, it’s difficult to ignore the potential of niese and the precision of takahashi… so, there will be difficult decisions, no question…”
ceetar
3/16/2010-11:26am at 11:26 am (UTC -4)
He’s also a whiny brat. (Figgy, I like Baron)
You know I don’t think Figueroa is as disasterous as the stats put out, and would be opposed to a couple of starts from him, especially considering he’s pitching well, so ..
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
I don’t believe his stats, especially last year, reflect how he really pitched either. Wasn’t his fault we had a triple A team behind him in Sept….
Did you listen to this interview of Figgy here:
http://mets360.com/2010/03/14/360-seconds-nelson-figueroa/
Whiny or not, you have to admire the confidence in himself. Hard to disguise the frustration as well.
If nothing else, his attitude is the opposite of ‘I just wasn’t into it’.
trs86
3/16/2010-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
True but there is a reason that this guy has been released 50 times and claimed by no one. He’s just a 35 year old AAAA pitcher. While his wins might have increased with better run support IF they Mets were a better team he may have seen better lineups with players who were not just going through the motions against a terrible team. Perhaps Figgy the 35 year old vet finally figured it out in September. Most likely not.
njstuckintx
3/16/2010-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
And the number of “and”s in the was intense and amazing and mind numbing.
prismo
3/16/2010-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
I agree with Baron actually. Any willing and able Mets fan should be invited onto the team’s roster. I’m even willing to take the league’s minimum salary. Omar, are you listening?
saltygary
3/16/2010-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
Hey the Eagles tried that and got a Disney movie out of it…
trs86
3/16/2010-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
Should have made clear that this was Cerrone’s words but they were very similar to this mornings words from Baron. Same poor style and lack of logic.
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
my logic is Misch, Figuera and Takahashi 0.00 ERA each. Niese 7.04 ERA Nieve 6.00 ERA
i mean if these results stay true over the remainder of ST how can you go with the latter two?
trs86
3/16/2010-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
One it’s Spring Training.
Two you have to think about options
Three it’s frigging Figgy
trs86
3/16/2010-11:40am at 11:40 am (UTC -4)
Seriously MC and MB how has Figgy “earned” anything more than any of the other candidates?
saltygary
3/16/2010-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
The Mets can get away with .500 ball in this first month as long as the SP looks strong and the position players play solid fundamentally. If head case Ollie returns and PElf continues to do summersalts off the mound, then the fans and media will go bonkers.
From the start of the off-season I have had a strong opinion of FMART staying in AAA to start the year, but my opinion is shifting. Yes pitching is way different from spring to the real season, but he seems more mature and confident with his abilities. He might be that spark of life that this team needs to get the injury reminders and the last 3 seasons out of their heads. These guys need that fight, that will to win and these youngins might just bring that energy back just like way Reyes and Wright did in ’06.
prismo
3/16/2010-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
I believe Manuel said the other day that FMart would be in AAA to start the season. So it seems as if management’s mind is made up. It helps that Pagan and GMJ are having a great spring training at the plate.
rustyjr
3/16/2010-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
Well as long as gmjr is on the team fmart will be in buffalo
ceetar
3/16/2010-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
Actually, Minaya said that. Manuel immediately countered with “well, he might be on the Major League team”
prismo
3/16/2010-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Noted!
stickguy
3/16/2010-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
i hate jerry,
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/16/2010-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
Jerry needs to shut up.
stickguy
3/16/2010-12:22pm at 12:22 pm (UTC -4)
Jerry needs to get canned.
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-11:39am at 11:39 am (UTC -4)
Figueroa should definitely be at least the long man.
when he took over as a SP last season for good he had a 3.22 ERA and had a 3.65 ERA last year in a relief role. In fact out of all the SP who pitched more than 10 games last season, Nelson was our 2nd best SP.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
I believe he had the best ERA in Sep. And yes, I know what his competition was that month….
prismo
3/16/2010-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
Better watch out Oleo. TRS HATES Figgy with a passion.
trs86
3/16/2010-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
LOL< it’s amazing. This guy is treated like a god and he’s a 35 year old dud.
rustyjr
3/16/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
You think the figmeister might pull a Tony Montana and whack Omar lol
trs86
3/16/2010-11:49am at 11:49 am (UTC -4)
That would be fine by me. Get rid of both of them that way.
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-11:53am at 11:53 am (UTC -4)
if you were Figgy wouldnt u get pissed off too.
He comes in April 19th pitches a quality start 6 IP 5H 2 ER in a 4-2 loss to the Brewers. Then he gets sent down and doesnt receive another callup until August 3rd despite the fact that he has a 2.25 ERA for the worst team in AAA.
trs86
3/16/2010-11:54am at 11:54 am (UTC -4)
If I were Figgy I would get even more pissed that when he got RELEASED (not sent down) that NO ONE would pick him up. He was so pissed at the Mets, whined and cried, had his wife blogging about it and went out and BEGGED for anyone to pick him up. What happens, he ends up back with the Mets in AAA.
trs86
3/16/2010-11:46am at 11:46 am (UTC -4)
You need to go back and check your numbers. The guy had one month under a 4.00 ERA and that was September against scrubs. Also if you look at his relief numbers more closely you would find that he was TERRIBLE in relief and should thank his teammates for not have an ERA over 6.
18 hits in 12 innings combined with 5 walks and 3 HBP. Yup, SOLID. LOL.
You guys know my feelings on Figgy but can we please, PLEASE stop making him more than he is? He’s a AAAA guy that is good depth and should not be on the opening day roster of a team trying to make the playoffs.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
I don’t believe the 5th spot should go to Figgy either.
However, I really would like him to stay as he does provide depth. Good as a spot starter – either when you have to skip a guy but not put him on the DL or a couple starters go on the DL short term or we’ve got a double header/make up games and we need a spot starter.
That being said, I have a feeling he might not opt to stay with the Mets in AAA this year. He might take his chances with another team on a minor league contract, hoping for a spot on the big league roster. Time is running out for him.
trs86
3/16/2010-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
It is indeed running out but if history shows us anything there won’t be another team that is willing to give him a contract.
As for your part on being a spot starter and a guy in the pen, I would rather give that spot to Misch who is LH and out of options. His numbers last year and this spring are very comparable.
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
that I cant argue with…Takahashi as the 5th SP and Misch as a reliever might be best
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, I like Misch as well.
It’s more I want them all tucked away for depth purposes b/c I’m still gun shy after last year and the injuries…
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t know if it’s true or not but according to Figgy, he did get calls from other teams and offers for minor league contracts last year. He said he opted to go back to the Mets minor leagues as he didn’t want to uproot his family for just another chance to break a ML roster off a minor league somewhere else.
Said something like he had just as much chance doing that with the Mets, staying where he was (and all he had to do is look at the current state of the starters and injuries to determine that).
trs86
3/16/2010-12:40pm at 12:40 pm (UTC -4)
Right but no team offered him an MLB deal.
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
correct…baseball-reference seems to have made a mistake in its splits
trs86
3/16/2010-11:57am at 11:57 am (UTC -4)
I used baseball-reference. Are you saying they were incorrect? I can go back and add it up.
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-12:06pm at 12:06 pm (UTC -4)
did u count the August 5th as a relief appearence?
trs86
3/16/2010-12:41pm at 12:41 pm (UTC -4)
Baseball reference did, yes.
trs86
3/16/2010-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
Here’s a relief line that is even more entertaining. Yup this guy belongs in the pen:
His numbers in relief.
.340 .419 .415 .834
Misch:
.293 .389 .390 .780
Starting
Figgy: .273 .341 .441 .782
Misch: .280 .325 .484 .810
Of course if you took out the last start by Figgy then Misch would win that too but I don’t like doing that game.
So what you have is basically two even pitchers who have pitched even this ST. One is a 36 year old well traveled RHP.
One is a 27 year old LHP.
Hmmmm….
prismo
3/16/2010-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
My gut instinct tells me that it doesn’t really matter who we use as our fifth starter.
In all likelihood whomever it is will average 5.75 innings and 3-4 runs per start.
The case for Niese (and even Nieve) would be that they clearly have a higher upside than Figgy.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-12:09pm at 12:09 pm (UTC -4)
No argument there.
And maybe with Niese and even Nieve they will show some flashes of brilliance and not give up a handful of runs every start.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/16/2010-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
I agree with you, but I think Takahashi will be more consistent. And I think that’s what we should look for in #5. He’s probably not going to give you 8IP 0ER outings, but I think he can definitely give you 6IP 3ER to keep the team in the game. I would take that any day from your #5 SP.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
Maybe. See my comment below on Tak2 and concerns on his stamina. They could be thinking about that with him…
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
my argument is if Niese has shown nothing to suggest that he is any better than his ST competitors. He has options and he failed to dominate at any level in the minors from rookie league to AAA.
I want to see him pitch consistently in the minors and refine his game before we just hand him a spot in the rotation especially when hes probably going to give up twice as many runs as everyone else
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-12:12pm at 12:12 pm (UTC -4)
but what if Takahashi can do better. what if he can be better than MOP?
Im not saying he will be but through 2 G in ST (not counting the scoreless inning in the B game) he has 6 IP 2 H 0 BB and 9 K.
Doesnt he be the favorite considering how bad Niese and Nieve have been?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/16/2010-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
I agree. I think Takahashi can bring consistency over Niese and Nieve.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-12:16pm at 12:16 pm (UTC -4)
I think the concern with Tak2 is his stamina. They said in Japan, they only pitch once a week as opposed to every 5th day. So given that and his age, I think there was some concern about that.
We’ve got about 2 1/2 weeks left, right? Outings/numbers might be more telling across the 3 of them when ST ends.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/16/2010-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
That’s a good point. But we’ve never seen a full season out of Niese or Nieve either.
I guess it’s a good problem to have and you never have enough pitchers.
I think the bigger problem lies with the Questionable 3.
stickguy
3/16/2010-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
well, if you have 5 guys for the same spot, go with the hot hand and ride him hard.
If he wears down after 10 starts, then give him a rest, and call up Neise to take over.
I really care about the #s the 5th SP puts up. I just don’t care how many different guys it takes to fill the spot!
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
exactly but the fact that they dont seem to be even considering him as a SP is mind-boggling.
Its not like Niese some phenom here. Niese is probably going to be just as good (or bad) as Figueroa/Misch/Nieve
you might as well let him go to AAA where he can actually benefit from being there and give the job to the guy who earned in ST
stickguy
3/16/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
I have given up trying to understand some of this FO’s thought processes. Mostly I hope that they don’t really think what they say or what gets reported/speculated.
But another couple of strong outings from Taka and they might have to change their minds!
stickguy
3/16/2010-12:18pm at 12:18 pm (UTC -4)
wow, how about these numbers:
Last season, Sonnastine, 26, was 6–9 with a 6.77 ERA in 22 games, including 18 starts.
That right there is bad, I don’t care who you are… But, I figured out who he is. Figgy, just 9 years younger!
trs86
3/16/2010-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
True except for the fact Sonnanstine has at least HAD mlb success. 2008 32 starts 193 innings 4.38 ERA in AL East. I would compare him more to Bannister than Figgy right now.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/16/2010-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
Despite all the talents available for #5 spot, if one of the Questionable 3 heads to DL, we have a big problem.
I guess Niese/Nieve, Niese/Tak2, Nieve/Take2.. whatever the combo is, maybe they can hold down the fort for 2-3 weeks. But I just don’t see any of them being the #4 in this rotation.
IF any of the Q3s hit the DL or the mental DL, Omar needs to make a move. Whether it is Meche, Arroyo or whomever, Omar needs to make a move.
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
have you watched Takahashi this spring?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/16/2010-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
Yes and I’m for Takahashi as #5, but I would need to see little more out of him to say he can be the #4.
stickguy
3/16/2010-12:28pm at 12:28 pm (UTC -4)
Less than 3 weeks to find out what really ends up being the roster. I might not make it…
anyway, right now, I don’t see F Mart staying up. Unless Pagan gets hurt, and then he becomes the starter.
The pitching will be:
Santana, MOP (man, that saves a lot of typing..), Takawakka
pen: K rod, Feliciano, Izzy, Calero, Misch, Neive + 1 more guy. Parnell, Green and Figgy fighting it out.
winner depends on who pitches well, and roles assigned to the other 6. Do they need a long man/spot starter? A ROOGY? or another potential late inning set up man?
And notice I made sure to put Mejia back in AA starting.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-12:34pm at 12:34 pm (UTC -4)
I didn’t see any consistency from Green last year and I’m not seeing anything so far this year to change my mind on him. Parnell worries me too but I think he’s got some more upside.
To me, Green is expendable.
stickguy
3/16/2010-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
I think they can both go down. Parnell at least can give you a few garbage time innings when you need them.
Green actaully can go away entirely.
Parnell I think they send to AAA, and figure which 2nd pitch makes the most sense, and then crash course him with that and some tweaks to get movement on his FB. And make him one of the closers at Buffalo.
trs86
3/16/2010-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
Don’t forget the Mets may still sign another LHRP.
stickguy
3/16/2010-12:52pm at 12:52 pm (UTC -4)
then it is either at the expense of Misch, or even better, just keep him as thelong/swing man, dump Figgy, and send parnell and Green down.
3 lefties, and 3 RH set up men with good FBs. And a closer. Works for me, especially with Philly 18 times a year.
stickguy
3/16/2010-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
another random thought.
I am pretty sure I have not seen 1 poster here really support Mejia in the pen to start the season.
Maybe the best thing is for him to come out next time and just have a lousy performance. No control, and scuffles. Happens all the time.
Nothing scary, but just enough to take th bloom off the rose! And make the yoyos running the team realize he needs to go back to AA for now.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
I’m not sure about here, but I’ve seen plenty of Mejia pen supporters on FWICG.com and mets.com.
Need to look at the big picture where it concerns this kid and his future. I just don’t think having him in the pen to start the year is going to make or break our season.
stickguy
3/16/2010-12:44pm at 12:44 pm (UTC -4)
well, I was talking about intellignet posters…
besides, I am not even sure he will do better than parnell initially, so why bother?
trs86
3/16/2010-12:47pm at 12:47 pm (UTC -4)
Closest thing you have here is me saying that I don’t think it will hinder his overall development. Still would not do it. As I said earlier today it would be nice if we trusted the Mets to make the right decision. If they believed he was ready and better than the alternatives to just say ok lets see it. However, we don’t have that trust.
stickguy
3/16/2010-12:50pm at 12:50 pm (UTC -4)
that is pretty far though from saying DO IT, DO IT!
I also agree that having no faith on the FO dooing the smart move is the way to go.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-12:53pm at 12:53 pm (UTC -4)
Ted Berg’s latest post weighs in on the #5 starter for opening day.
He pretty much has some of the points discussed here earlier.
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-12:54pm at 12:54 pm (UTC -4)
This is the team I would bring north if the season started today
Pagan, Castillo, Wright, Bay, Murphy, Francouer, Barajas, Cora (Blanco, Santos/Tatis, A. Hernandez, Matthews Jr., Carter)
Santana, Pelfrey, Ollie, Maine, Takahashi (Nieve, Misch, Green, Feliciano, Igarashi, Parnell, K-Rod)
Remember Tatis is injured so I would look to trade Omir but until he is traded I would keep him as strictly a RH PH and Calero is not ready. I would keep Calero in extended spring anyway until we see Misch or Nieve in the reg season. Then after about 2 weeks bring up Calero and waive either Nieve or Misch or send Takashashi down if he does poorly after his 1st start.
trs86
3/16/2010-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
Problem with the use of Santos as a RH PH is that he has opposite splits. Guy can’t hit LHP. LOL.
.218 .250 .366 .616 vs LHP WOW.
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-1:21pm at 1:21 pm (UTC -4)
yes i looked at those numbers before but hes a pure fastball hitter with some pop and hes been hitting the ball well this spring as opposed to Catalanatto who hasnt and Jacobs who should be the DH in AAA as he’s not a pinch hitter…
trs86
3/16/2010-2:19pm at 2:19 pm (UTC -4)
Based on stats Santos is clearly not a PH either. Unless you plan on using him to face RH then he’s useless.
trs86
3/16/2010-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
Also I would expect it to then be a guy like Adams who could play multiple positions in Tatis absence.
stickguy
3/16/2010-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
reasonable. Of course, not knowing for sure who will be healthy enough to goes means making assumptions like you did.
Not sure about your bench though. Blanco and Mathews for sure. And with Tejada being sent down, A Hern is probably as good a bet for the BU MI role as anyone. I even want carter as teh last man.
But I don’t see Santos if Tatis isn’t ready.
You also might see Adams instead of A Hern, but you conceibably could see both, assuming one of them can play 3B.
For the Pen, I would rather see Green go when Calero is ready, assuming that Misch and Neive are doing well. The extra lefty will be nice, and green has options (plus, of course, he stinks).
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
David Wright doesnt need a backup unless hes hurt. In that case you’d call up someone to replace him anyway so there really is no need for a backup except in the 1 and a 1000 chance he gets ejected or something in that case Cora or Murphy can play 3rd for a few innings
CaseStreet
3/16/2010-1:04pm at 1:04 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, Frenchy and Barajas won’t be here next year and Murph better start learning to play the rest of the field.
No way the Mets are trading Prince F-Mart or a LH Catcher who can hit.
Unfortunately for Murphy, teams don’t really like a lite hitting 1B, especially when they have a “true” 1B knocking on the door. At best he’ll takeover for Tatis.
As for GMJ and Pagan, I hope we start GMJ and trade him once Beltran comes back. No way we should trade Pagan since he is fine being a 4th starter while GMJ doesn’t.
OT, Caught some of Barajas interview with GKR the other day. I really liked his attitude and hope he can whip MOP(TM pending) in to shape.
stickguy
3/16/2010-1:11pm at 1:11 pm (UTC -4)
agree they shouldn’t be trading F Mart or Thole. For sure barajas is unlikely to be here. Frnechy I am torn on. I don’t think he will be, but I hope it is because F Mart had a moster year and Frenchy did good enough to be trade bait (and not because he just sucked).
And I got no problem with Murphy being a bench guy. He can “play” enough positions to be versitle, and at least last year showed an ability to PH. so, what’s not to like? For the Tatis (formerly Marlon Anderson) role on the bench, a fine solution.
I am cool with trading GM jr., but I don’t really like the start him idea.
CaseStreet
3/16/2010-1:13pm at 1:13 pm (UTC -4)
the idea to start GMJ is to increase his trade value.
stickguy
3/16/2010-1:24pm at 1:24 pm (UTC -4)
a nice concept, if you think he will play well. My fear is that he stinks, costing the team games, and having a negative effect on his trade value.
Might be better of fgiving him spot starts, and hope he does well enough in a small sample to suck in some team.
oleosmirf
3/16/2010-1:18pm at 1:18 pm (UTC -4)
well it is possible that Thole and Bajaras split duties at least until Thole distinguishes himself with Blanco leaving instead
stickguy
3/16/2010-1:25pm at 1:25 pm (UTC -4)
that’s why I said unlikey, not definite! Certainly possible that barajas hs a good enough year they want to bring him back as the BU, Different story of course whether he wants to do it.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-1:07pm at 1:07 pm (UTC -4)
LOL – poster on Amazin Avenue weighing in on the latest round of ‘Make-The-Mets-O-Meter (concerning Mejia starting the year in the BP):
‘They’re going to Joba him.
So in 3 years, he’ll end up a 9-6 starter with a 5 ERA who can’t go deep into ballgames.’
ceetar
3/16/2010-2:35pm at 2:35 pm (UTC -4)
Hmm, someone unfollowed me on Twitter, and then took the extra step and blocked me from following their (public) timeline. I wonder what I said to offend.
prismo
3/16/2010-2:37pm at 2:37 pm (UTC -4)
Who was it?
ceetar
3/16/2010-2:43pm at 2:43 pm (UTC -4)
EliseMichelle. Only noticed cause others replied to her and I didn’t see the original tweet. It’s fine if i’m not interesting to follow, but to go the extra step and block me from following you? why?
njstuckintx
3/16/2010-3:25pm at 3:25 pm (UTC -4)
Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned… Good luck there buddy. You don’t have any rabbits or anything at home, do you?
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-4:50pm at 4:50 pm (UTC -4)
MCs latest post thanking everyone associated with his blog and especially his readers.
Just a tidbit from the beginning:
‘First off, I’d like to thank the team’s outstanding beat writers, who dig up all sorts of interesting information, which often provides the framework for you and I and talk radio to debate and think about the Mets all day long.’
**********************
What?
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/16/2010-5:25pm at 5:25 pm (UTC -4)
brown nose-er…
stickguy
3/16/2010-5:27pm at 5:27 pm (UTC -4)
that means he monitors what they publish/tweet/ etc., and then just posts a link to it with a 1 sentence intro.
IOW< they do all the work.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-4:56pm at 4:56 pm (UTC -4)
Tim Marchman on SI inside baseball talks about who has the best core talent. His current list:
The top five quartets in baseball are as follows:
1. Yankees (CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson)
2. Phillies (Chase Utley, Roy Halladay, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins)
3. Mets (David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Jason Bay)
4. Red Sox (Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Jon Lester, Josh Beckett)
5. Cardinals (Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina)
****************
He goes on to say:
‘As noted, there’s nothing too surprising here. The most significant placing may be the Mets — that they do so well here despite seeming like poor bets to finish much above .500 really tells you a lot about how badly that team has been mismanaged.’
Uh…ouch.
wannybackstra
3/16/2010-5:05pm at 5:05 pm (UTC -4)
Interesting that neither Derek Jeter (over Granderson) or Santana (over either Beltran or Bay) are not of their teams’ 4 member core.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/16/2010-5:41pm at 5:41 pm (UTC -4)
He based it off of BaseballProjection.com or the CHONE projections. What’s BS about these projections is that there’s little human element to it.
Look at the Mets pitching projections. You have ONE guy who will have over .500 record in 2010 and that is Johan with 11-9 with 3.96 ERA…. I mean he was hurt last year, but c’mon. Are you kidding me?? I really wonder the credibility of this CHONE projection when you have Johan Santana going 11-9 with 3.96 ERA. Has he seen Johan pitch at all? He was the best pitcher in baseball first half of the season!! Remember how low his ERA was for his first 7-8 starts?
Plus, it has the Braves winning the division over the Phillies where the Phillies have 85 and 87 wins using 2 different methods. I hate the Phillies, but I’m pretty sure they will win more than that.
stickguy
3/16/2010-8:36pm at 8:36 pm (UTC -4)
I hope they don’t win more!
sure, based on last year they should, but a couple of poorly timed injuries and an off year or 2, and they can fall fast.
Look at it this way. is there anyone on the team that you really think can have a markedly better year than last year? If not,why should they be any better, making that their best case ceiling.
OK, maybe reaching here,but work with me on this!
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-10:30pm at 10:30 pm (UTC -4)
LOL.
Hamels could put up 2008 numbers rather than his 2009. Lidge could put up 2008 numbers rather than his 2009. Those two alone could be a difference maker.
Then again, considering all position players, it’s only going to take an injury or two to be less. Their bench is a huge drop off, IMO opinion. There is only so many years you can go with the virtually injury free success they’ve enjoyed these past few years.
As a whole, I don’t think their BP is all that great either.
gategem
3/17/2010-1:20am at 1:20 am (UTC -4)
Last year the Phillies only had Cliff Lee for less than half a season. This year, barring injury, they will have Roy Halladay for the entire season. Another advantage is Lee‘s ability to occasionally pitch a complete game. That will take some of the burden off of the bullpen. .
gategem
3/17/2010-1:11am at 1:11 am (UTC -4)
“What’s BS about these projections is that there’s little human element to it.â€
Yes it is that human element that renders most projections to be little more than opinions pulled out of one’s rear end that runs rampant on the internet.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/16/2010-5:23pm at 5:23 pm (UTC -4)
Or that the supporting cast isn’t as great as the other teams on the list…. which points to the poor management…
damn. there’s no going around to it.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-8:41pm at 8:41 pm (UTC -4)
I will admit to being one of those fans who does not study sabermetrics all that much.
Considering though, it’s basically the same cast of characters from 2009 who were predicted to make post season (swap Delgado’s bat for Bay’s and a wash for Church with Frenchy), does Murphy, an aging Castillo and the SP really put us at that much of a drop from 2009?
Just makes my head hurt…..
stickguy
3/16/2010-9:33pm at 9:33 pm (UTC -4)
it is only partly rational. There is also the ratings factor, and one of the best ways to get attention is to either predict a NY team to do really well, or really bad.
Besides, those predictions are traditionally not very accurate. Teams every year way over or way under achieve.
Who really knows what to expect with the Mets. Sure they could win 79 if tons goes wrong. But, a few breaks, and they can win 92. I personally won’t bet on either!
darknova306
3/16/2010-6:21pm at 6:21 pm (UTC -4)
“The most significant placing may be the Mets — that they do so well here despite seeming like poor bets to finish much above .500 really tells you a lot about how badly that team has been mismanaged”
Or maybe it shows that “poor bets to finish much above .500″ is based on media bias? I’m one of the biggest pessimists on here, and even I think this team is, unless something goes terribly wrong, a pretty good bet for at least an 82-83 win season, not a long shot. The team HAS been mismanaged by the Jerry the Joker, but it’s the lazy media bias that has us as a poor bet for above .500.
rustyjr
3/16/2010-6:16pm at 6:16 pm (UTC -4)
tatis starts at third tomorrow – just wondering anyones thoughts on if he might not make it north
stickguy
3/16/2010-8:33pm at 8:33 pm (UTC -4)
if he is starting now, I expect he will, unless he hurts himself again.
I guess he is OK, but i still wouldn’t miss him.
stickguy
3/16/2010-9:37pm at 9:37 pm (UTC -4)
a little tidbit that I don’t remember seeing mentioned here.
Yesterday, Palanco hurt himself (strained knee) in their game. Had to get helped off the field and taken for medical attention. Last I heard he was day to day, but who knows.
maybe it is the phillies turn to get hit by the injury bug.
Too bad they are also getting good SP every day, but you can’t have everything.
metsfan4decades
3/16/2010-10:50pm at 10:50 pm (UTC -4)
According to Marty Noble, Franceour has more outfield assists (since 2005) than any other OF in the game.
‘Francoeur has strong-armed the National League for five seasons now, throwing out 70 base runners, intimidating countless others and scaring third-base coaches from San Diego to Queens.’
‘His 70 outfield assists are not only the most in the big leagues since the day he played his first game in 2005; they exceed the second-highest total by 12. Moreover, the runner-up in that span is Alfonso Soriano, an outfielder almost exclusively beginning in 2005. And most of Soriano’s assists are the by-products of coaches and runners trying to exploit his weak arm. No coach who appreciates his livelihood ever considers exploiting Francoeur’s arm. What’s to exploit?’
High praise indeed.
The 4th on that list? Bay with 50.
darknova306
3/16/2010-10:55pm at 10:55 pm (UTC -4)
At least part of his game is better than a scrub…
trs86
3/17/2010-7:38am at 7:38 am (UTC -4)
If I can find it I am willing to bet that his RBI/RBI per chance is also above scrub level. I noticed last year he had a tendency to drive in runs in some really ugly ways.