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Mar 20

Thoughts On Who’s Coming North

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Mets

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As we finally approach the start of the real games, the last debate is who will comprise the final 25 man roster for the Mets. 

It seems as though the starters will be Barajas, Murphy, Castillo, Cora, Wright, Bay, Pagan, and Francoeur.

No argument here really. Some clamor for Jacobs, but there is little reason for this. Murphy is unproven and may eventually be forced into being a second baseman or a subersub, but he is better at just about every facet of the game than the really bad Mike Jacobs. Murph is a better fielder with a better arm, is a faster runner, and should certainly attain a higher BA and OBP than Jacobs. Jacobs’ power is what most folks cite, failing to really consider that he has had four seasons with 460 PA or more and topped 20 HR once. Murph did hit 12 last year. And Murph’s 38 doubles in 2009 are more than Jacobs has ever hit. Murph’s OPS, constantly attacked, was 43 points higher than Jacobs’ last year. Could we even expect Jacobs to equal his career bests in these numbers at Citi Field, while playing bad defense, rarely getting on base, and doing it all very slowly? This is Murph’s chance to show if he is an everyday player, and while what he showed last year was not great, it was, overall, better than a Mike Jacobs year pretty much any way you evaluate it.

The shortstop position is a tough one. Tejada’s minor league fielding stats are not spectacular, although they improved significantly over the last two years, so Cora should probably start, but have a short leash. If he and Castillo do indeed prove to have exceptionally terrible range between them, then a change will need to be made if this does indeed markedly affect the team’s fortunes early on. Tejada should then start until Jose returns.

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The starting rotation is clearly Johan, Pelf, Ollie, and Maine, and after that should be Takahashi. Nieve has not grabbed the spot, and with his age and inexperience, Niese should be sent down to develop along with Davis, Mejia, FMart, Thole, and the rest of the Junior Core.

The pen probably will be KRod, Igarashi, Parnell, Feliciano, Calero, Nieve, and Misch, which covers all bases and allows lots of flexibility.

If Takahashi cannot hack it, then he and Nieve switch spots. After this, we can look at Misch then Niese, and then, if we absolutely have to, the awful Figueroa, who hopefully will not see another chance; if everyone above him pitches well, this would be the best outcome. Figueroa could be a decent starter if every start was in spring training or the last day of the year against a team which has quit, but he could never be counted on out of the pen, and hopefully will be sent down where he will remain, to tutor the Buffalo staff all summer long.

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This leaves the bench, which will clearly have Gary Matthews Jr, Fernando Tatis, and Henry Blanco, leaving two spots.

The need for a backup middle infielder who can play shortstop will have a large role in dictating the pre-Reyes-return outcome here. Russ Adams has experience, all of it mediocre in every way. His last stint as a major league shortstop, in Toronto in 2006, produced 10 errors in 36 games. Next. Tejada showed strides ranging from good to great in every aspect of his game in the move from A ball in 2008 to AA ball in 2009. Does this show that he is definitely ready for prime time? Absolutely not. But in the spot the Mets are in, it clearly shows enough promise to let him be a backup or a platoon shortstop for the hopefully short time that Reyes will remain inactive. As soon as Reyes returns, let Tejada continue his impressive march through the system in Buffalo.

Frank Catalanotto can play RF, LF, 1B and 2B, and can hit and get on base. It seems that he clearly fits a lot of role-player roles, and should be the last man.

Matthews Jr., Tatis, Blanco, Tejada, and Catalanotto. The return of Reyes sends Tejada to AAA, and the return of Beltran probably means the release of Catalanotto or the trading of Matthews Jr. or Pagan.

Why have Jacobs on the team? He cannot play another position, is useless as a defensive replacement or pinch runner, and can he be expected to be a serious power threat as a late-inning pinch hitter, facing one of the opponent’s best relievers, with half his games in Citi? At least Catalanotto can possibly draw a walk or get a single.

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As we seemingly all agree on, much, if not nearly everything, depends on the 2-3-4 spots in the rotation. If Pelf, Ollie, and Maine can somehow all win in double figures and give 6 or 7 innings most of their starts, the rest of the debates become much less momentous. However, if one or more of them fail significantly, the 5th starter, last bullpen spots, and bench could become of paramount importance; especially when one recalls the margin of missing the playoffs in 2007 and 2008.

It says here that us fans may suddenly have realized that despite the often unfair vilification Omar receives, that we may indeed have a fantastic crop of youngsters ready to make the spring of 2011 potentially exhilirating. But they should all start off the year in Buffalo, with the exception of Tejada, and even in his case, only as a temporary fix. Omar’s comments seem to recognize this, and his amassing of these players, as well as his wisdom in not rushing them ahead of their time, should be appreciated by the serious fan.

This writer is ready for opening day to erase the 2009 nightmare once and for all, and to see if maybe this year’s team can surprise us in ways dramatically different from the surprises we were presented with in 2009.

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15 comments

  1. rustyjr

    3/20/2010-8:21pm at 8:21 pm (UTC -4)

    Hey kong I agree with you on everything except for the cat / I think he will be the last one released

    1. Kingman 26

      3/20/2010-8:24pm at 8:24 pm (UTC -4)

      Hey Rusty–I am not big on the Cat, but if he goes, who do we take? Adams? His career is pretty bad offensively and terrible defensively…and Jacobs can only play first base…who would we take instead? The Cat gives us some versatility; that is all I am thinking here.

  2. rustyjr

    3/20/2010-8:28pm at 8:28 pm (UTC -4)

    Read my prediction my bench is
    blanco
    Jacobs
    tatis
    Adams
    and gmjr I feel that tgey won’t bring tejada up north because Adams will be the odd man out when Jose returns same will be with either pagan or gmjr when Carlos comes back

    1. Kingman 26

      3/20/2010-8:34pm at 8:34 pm (UTC -4)

      I did read yours Rusty–I have been staying away from commenting, but I read your posts every day—your posts are a Mookie Wilson number 1 on my list; I agree on pretty much everything, but I think Tejada should make the team, and go to AAA when Jose comes back. Adams looks like he might be a worse fielder than Cora.

      Then, when Beltran returns, either The Cat meows his way out of town, or we trade Pagan or Matthews if possible.

      My humble thought is that Jacobs is just plain terrible, also bats lefty, can only play first, and had a much lower OPS than Murph.

      Why should Jacobs be on the team if Murph does absolutely everything better and is much younger and might still get better and if Jacobs has zero versatility?

      He has topped 20 HR just once…could he even do that at Citi, while having a .295 OBP and fielding terribly?

      1. rustyjr

        3/20/2010-8:38pm at 8:38 pm (UTC -4)

        I agree I want tejada up and I want murph over Jake but u know jerrys head is full of little men who talk in riddles thus confusing him – that’s why mejia needs to stay down in aa or aaa

        1. Kingman 26

          3/20/2010-8:40pm at 8:40 pm (UTC -4)

          LOL! You sure are right about those tiny men in Jerry’s head!

          Hey, good talking to you buddy–have a great night!

          16 Lee Gooden days!

          :-)

        2. rustyjr

          3/20/2010-8:40pm at 8:40 pm (UTC -4)

          And I’m not arguing with u my friend just put my pucks out there lol btw do I get a real dirty discount on yer site ? Lol

          1. rustyjr

            3/20/2010-8:41pm at 8:41 pm (UTC -4)

            U2 my friend

    2. asod75

      3/20/2010-10:55pm at 10:55 pm (UTC -4)

      Wish Chris Carter got more of a look this spring. Seems like he’s got a pretty decent bat with pop, and can play first and outfield (although he’s not a particularly good fielder either) which gives him a bit more versatility than Jacobs. He’s hit pretty well but hasn’t gotten much of a look, as Jerryatric Manuel seems to love Jacobs for some reason.

  3. Hazmet

    3/20/2010-10:25pm at 10:25 pm (UTC -4)

    File this under misc.:

    I just read today, March 20, was Alien Abduction Day! I was hoping they would spin by to take our Manager for a ride….again.

  4. stickguy

    3/20/2010-11:33pm at 11:33 pm (UTC -4)

    Nice piece Kong.

    You pretty much covered my points. Just a couple of tweaks:

    1) I prefer to see Carter get the last spot. But if not him, them Cat isbetter than Jacobs.

    2) tejada either needs to start or go down. Adams should be able to fill in the space for a little while. But, who long reyes is out for is still the wildcard.

  5. stickguy

    3/20/2010-11:35pm at 11:35 pm (UTC -4)

    Good news! Don’t tell Fongy (he might be in therapy) but Halladay took the loss today, and the PHils have been shut out 2 days in a row!

    Oh wait, does the “its only spring training” count for them today?

    1. Mr North Jersey

      3/21/2010-2:14am at 2:14 am (UTC -4)

      Opening Day can’t come soon enough, right?

  6. metsfan4decades

    3/21/2010-10:46am at 10:46 am (UTC -4)

    Two weeks left, right? Hard to say right now on those last couple of bench spots. Further injuries (god forbid) might happen yet so we’ll see.

    My thoughts at this point are:
    - Mejia starts off in the minors – no question
    - Tejada should be on the opening day roster until Reyes returns
    - Taka2 should be seriously considered for the 5th starter roll. Nieve to the BP, Niese starts in AAA.

    I don’t know what to say about 1st base. Hate to see Murphy struggling this bad so far – doesn’t bode well.

  7. GravediggerHebner

    3/21/2010-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)

    Yours is essentially the roster, or perhaps better said, the roster philosophy that I hope the organization will employ to begin the season.

    However my gut feeling/interpretation of “the tea leaves” is I don’t think they will.

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