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Mar 23

Making A Case For Figueroa Getting One Last Look

So I have been reading all these articles about which pitchers should be on the Opening Day Roster and why. Most give valid reasons as to why, some don’t really explain their reasons or if they do I just do not comprehend them (the latter being most likely the case). I decided to see if by creating a chart would it make things clearer for me and this is what I ended up with.

L/R Player Player Notes
L Johan Santana Starter
L Oliver Perez Starter
L Jonathan Niese Starter / (Has Options)
L Hisanori Takahashi (signed to minor league contract)
L Pedro Feliciano Reliever
R Mike Pelfrey Starter
R John Maine Starter
L Pat Misch (Need to Clear Waivers to be sent down)
R Nelson Figueroa (Need to Clear Waivers to be sent down)
R Francisco Rodriguez Reliever
R Kiko Calero (signed to minor league contract)
R
Fernando Nieve (Need to Clear Waivers to be sent down)
R Bobby Parnell Reliever / (Has Options)
R Ryota Igarashi Reliever / (has a two-year, $3 million deal)
R Sean Green (Has Options) {will earn $975,000}
R Jenrry Mejia (Has Options)
Total Candidates: 16 (10-Righties, 6-Lefties)

The way I see it unless I am wrong of the 16 total candidates the Mets have 7 spots (shown in orange) on the Pitching staff already filled leaving 5 spots remaining assuming they go with a 12 man staff. So the question is which 4 do not make the Opening Day Roster?

## L/R Starting Rotation Spots
01 L Johan Santana
02 R Mike Pelfrey
03 L Oliver Perez
04 R John Maine
05 ????????????
## L/R BullPen Spots
06 R Francisco Rodriguez
07 L Pedro Feliciano
08 R Ryota Igarashi
09 R ???????????? (Kiko Calero)
10 R ???????????? (Fernando Nieve)
11 R ???????????? (Sean Green)
12 R ???????????? (Pat Misch)
Total Positions 12 (5-Starters, 7-Relievers)

Of the remaining 5 available spots one is for a starter and the other 4 for the bullpen. My understanding is Kiko Calero is almost a lock for one of the remaining spots in the pen so that leaves us with 4 spots left available.
Next is Fernando Nieve who is apparently also under heavy consideration for the pen and the Mets would have to get him through waivers if they wanted to send him down. So rather than running the risk of losing him he will most likely be in the bullpen leaving us with 3 spots left available.
Then we have Sean Green, yes he has options but it seems with a expected salary of $975,000 it has been said he is unlikely to be sent down by the Mets. Add him to the pen now we are down to 2 spots left.
Another Met who has had a good camp even though some feel he has been lucky is Pat Misch. He too has to clear waivers for the Mets to be able to send him down and since he really has had a good Spring I will guess the Mets will add him to the pen also and see if he can continue to impress. Having added Misch we are left with 1 spot.

So who is left? These are the following pitchers remaining:

  • Jonathan Niese
  • Hisanori Takahashi
  • Nelson Figueroa
  • Bobby Parnell
  • Jenrry Mejia

The only player from the above that needs to clear waivers is you guessed it Nelson Figueroa. Now even though the last spot is for the 5th starter spot. The Mets schedule if you look at it barring anything unforeseen you can make an argument it doesn’t require the need for a 5th starter till April 17th at St Louis assuming your #2 starter pitches on 4 days rest on April 11th vs Washington. The point being the Mets may not require the services of a #5 starter the 1st 2 weeks or so. Allowing them to carry another arm in the pen in the meantime.

Niese being a starter the Mets should leave him down in AAA getting his scheduled starts till they decide to make him their 5th starter.

Mejia being still so inexperienced should also be sent down to AAA so the Mets can groom him into the starter he should try to be.

You can make a good argument for Parnell, Takahashi or Figueroa getting the last spot. Parnell the young hard throwing pitcher, Takahashi another lefty to go in the pen, and Figueroa a rubber arm of a pitcher that eats innings. Personally I’d like to reward Figueroa with one last look in the pen before deciding if they’d rather go another route. After that if they feel Niese is their #5 or Takahashi at least they gave Figueroa a look see.

That would mean the 4 pitchers that would not be in the Opening Day roster would be
Jonathan Niese
Hisanori Takahashi
Bobby Parnell
Jenrry Mejia

What do you think the Mets will decide to do?

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76 comments

  1. rustyjr

    U have a trs deathwish doncha lol

    1. Mr North Jersey

      I believe TRS said he didn’t mind having Figgy he just didn’t want him at the cost of losing a Misch or a Nieve.

      I tried to look at it rationally in a way that for the most part seemed reasonable. I just figured considering how well Figueroa has pitched all Spring the Mets really didn’t have to risk losing him or any other player just yet. The worst that could happen is they try him out if he is the bust many feel he is then they put him on waivers to make room for either Niese or Takahashi or who ever they decide on taking his spot.

      I actually got a better understanding for why Figgy really just doesn’t fit long term on the team barring injuries even though I still wish he just got his shot.

  2. darknova306

    Figgy eats the same kind of innings that Marquis does… lousy innings. Might as well send him through waivers for the millionth time and see that teams still don’t care to pick him up. I like Nelson, he’s intelligent and well spoken, but he’s not a good major league pitcher. Send Mejia, Parnell, Niese and Figgy to AAA and use Takahashi as the #5. Figgy will clear waivers or he’ll go to Japan.

    1. trs86

      :)

  3. prismo

    In before TRS rage.

    1. rustyjr

      Run for your lives !!!

      1. prismo

        GOZIRRA!!!!

  4. trs86

    :(
    That’s all I got to say about that.

    1. rustyjr

      Don’t worrymy friend figgy has as much of a chance of making the team as mike francesa has at being on the cover of blue boy

  5. prismo

    I’d rather have Takahashi or Parnell rather than Figgy. Honestly I think Figgy’s best role is a 6th starter, even if he whines about it.

    1. prismo

      Clarifying: in the bullpen

    2. prismo

      I don’t know about the 5th starter spot. Might be fine with Takahashi or Niese.

      1. rustyjr

        Very talkative today pris – you been popping the greenies ?

        1. prismo

          Kind of excited for something…but can’t post it in public.

          1. rustyjr

            Abrahms or heather tesh ?

          2. prismo

            lol I sent you an email

  6. stickguy

    A nicely thought out analysis. For the most part, I agree.

    But, I think Takagoomey will be on the club. There were also reports that the Mets would go with a 5 man rotation from the start (but who knows, they say lots of things). So, might as well pencil the #5 in now, even if they do skip him a start.

    And that guy right now is either TikiTorch or Misch.

    And while I am on record as wanting to keep as many of the SPs as possible, I also thnk Takahoma is going to make the club, so Figgy wil lbe the odd man out.

    Although there is one much more obvious solution. Ship Green to Buffalo (that salary is a sunk cost, he gets it anyway) and keep Figgy for that role. After all, how hard can it be to replace Sean Green?

    There. Problem solved. Your pitching staff, just swap Taka2 and Green.

    1. Mr North Jersey

      Thanks Stick :-)

  7. trs86

    OK I can’t help it.

    Let me clarify my stance.

    Taka should be the #5 starter.
    If there are only 2 BP spots (Krod, Iggy, Calero, Feliciano, Green/Parnell) then I choose Misch and Nieve because they are at least comparable to Figgy and are much younger.
    However, if we are able to keep all 3 in the pen because Parnell and Green get sent down I won’t utter a word.
    I don’t see that happening.

    Thus how many of you actually support losing Misch or Nieve to keep from optioning Figgy?

    1. stickguy

      Not I.

      Also, what ever happened to that other Cuban SP guy? There was a bunch of talk about him maybe a month ago, but I honestly can’t remember if he ever signed anywhere.

      1. trs86

        Good thought. I can’t remember either. Did he ever clear?

        1. rustyjr

          I think the blue jays got him

          1. stickguy

            they got the SS dude. Did they get the SP too? I guess in Canada they don’t have to follow the Cuban boycott…

    2. metsfan4decades

      Not me.

      Johan/Pelf/Maine/Perez/Taka2

      KRod/Pedro/Calero/Iggy/Misch/Nieve/Parnell

      I don’t think keeping Green over any of the above, just b/c of salary, should be a consideration. It’s not like we’re talking about Ollie and his 12Mil. We’re talking about a reliever making less than 1Mil.
      Considering the starting 5 are never the same 5 you end up with, and you have to expect injuries – even if the minor 15 day or less kind, they’ll be many shuttles running back and forth. So expect to see Niese, Green and even Figgy (if he stays with the Mets) at some point.

      Or a midseason trade that might include a pitcher or two on this list.

  8. Kingman 26

    If the Mets keep Figgy over Takahashi OR Parnell I seriously might change team allegiance.

    Figgy sucks. A team serious about winning does not have a guy like him on their roster.

    Misch also is really bad.

    Calero gets lefties out the same as he gets righties out.

    Johan, Pelf, Ollie, Maine, Takahashi.

    KRod, Parnell, Igarashi, Feliciano, Calero, Nieve, and sucky as it is, probably Green if no move is made.

    1. stickguy

      Green really is close to worthless at this point. Why carry a ROOGY like that? Figgy just might be able to handle the roogy role just about as well, plus he can at least spot start, or pitch 3-4 innings after an early exit by a SP.

      I would also carry Misch over green or figgy for the same reasons. And depth. I also don’t think he is as bad as you seem to.

      1. Kingman 26

        Well, I think Castillo is better than you think he is!

        :-)

        I agree they all stink, they really do.

        I was in favor of Misch, but last night Costa at the Ledger was answering commenters and seemed to think that there is no way Misch makes the team—Misch is younger and can spot start, but he is really terrible, and his splits show he does get lefties out, while Calero does.

        I would take them in the order of Green (who at least DOES have some hot streaks), Misch (young enough to still have some hope?), Figgy (picture what you would think of Castillo if he hit .197 last year with an OBP of .211 and a UZR of -97.3; that is what I think of Figgy.)

    2. trs86

      Hey I appreciate the anti-Figgy sentiment but I like Misch. Put up numbers just as good as Figgy and is a younger LH that can pitch from the pen (did decent there last year) as well as start. Nice guy to have on the team as your mop-up/long reliever. Basically the same spot that the Mets would consider Figgy for. Thus why have a figgy?

      1. Kingman 26

        I did agree, until I took a close look at Misch’s career—really awful stats, and the lefty issue is completely irrelevant with him–check out his splits.

        And it may be moot anyway; not that he necessarily knows it all, but Brian Costa at the Ledger last night said that there is no way Misch is making the team.

        I think it will be Green, with Nieve as spot starter, and Calero as the RH lefty specialist after Feliciano, as he gets lefties out really well.

        1. trs86

          I have looked at his stats a bunch. Including his splits and career numbers in the pen. While he is certainly not a stud I think he belongs in the pen and provides more for the team than Green does. I see no reason to lose a guy who is to me #7 on the SP chart.

  9. prismo

    Everyone on Metsblog saying Niese should be the Mets #2 starter this season.

    While I’m fine with him as the #5, and admittedly he may be better than Perez…the number two!? Come on now.

    1. Kingman 26

      Number two at BUFFALO they mean!

      :-)

      1. stickguy

        no, he would be the #1 there, unless they decide to send Mejia too!

        If nothing else though, you gotta appreciate the optimism! Unless it is just a dig at MOP (#2 by default).

        I guess it depends on whether you measure a #2 by some objective criteria, or just because someone has to pitch 2nd in the rotation!

        1. Kingman 26

          Yeah, personally I think Buffalo’s rotation should start with Mejia, Niese, and Figgy.

          Unless they can get a better number 3.

    2. ceetar

      It’s in response to a fangraphs..and I think an amazing avenue, post.

      1. prismo

        Right, but I’m talking about the commenters. I disagree with the original notion and with their agreeing with it.

        1. ceetar

          sheep..?
          Comment and say you think Murphy will hit 25 home runs. should change the subject. :-D

          1. prismo

            I would, but I’m not allowed to comment!

          2. stickguy

            nice to see you trying to put some reson to the discussion over there.

            I don’t give it much hpe of working, but I appreciate the effort!

  10. stickguy

    Here’s a question for y’all.

    If the rotation past Johan really does (as some fear) spit the bit, and drags the team down to non-contention by mid season, will that be enough to have Omar bounced during the year? Or does he get until year end no matter what?

    For sake of the arguement, assume that the pen is OK, and the offense scores at a decent clip, and the team is reasonably healthy.

    and, would Jeffy let Omar unload prospects trying to trade for more SP?

    MOP is a huge reason that Mejia should be down in AA trying to master being a SP. Potentially they are going to have much bigger rotation holes to sill than a set up man in the Pen.

    1. prismo

      If it’s mid-season and the Mets are tanking, you better believe Omar and Jerry are gone. All the fans would be calling for their heads, and attendance would be way down. The Wilpons would have to do it.

      1. trs86

        Baring another PR disaster Omar at least finishes the year. Jerry is canned early.

        1. prismo

          Why would they let Omar hire another manager if he’ll just be leaving at the end of the season? I would only see them hiring an interim manager until the end of the year. Then again, that’s what Jerry was before he got the job.

          1. trs86

            I would imagine they would again promote from within. Also, who says Omar would be hiring the manager?

          2. prismo

            Teams should hire GMs before Managers – always, without exception.

          3. trs86

            OK well anyway I don’t see Omar being fired during the year.

        2. DNDJohan aka kistics

          I agree. Omar is in the 1st year of his 3 year extension. No way the Wilpons get rid of him this early in his contract. I know it’s scary thought, but I think Omar’s job is safe till the end of 2011 season.

    2. ceetar

      Assuming Beltran and Reyes come back, between Johan and the offense and bullpen I just don’t seem them being out of it, no matter how mundane they pitch. Jerry still might (hopefully) lose his job, but they’d be on acquisition from getting back into it anyway.

      1. metsfan4decades

        Agreed.

      2. njstuckintx

        With Ceetar’s scenario, I don’t see Omar getting fired prior to the moment they are knocked out of playoff contention. What I do think will happen is Omar panicing hardcore to save said job, sending some of our kids off to other lands in return for a #4 starter expected to be our #2 started and said kids will come back to haunt us. I can even see Murphy getting shipped off and signing eventually with the Marlins and him haunting the Mets a la Terry Pendleton and never ending back pages of Murphy’s Law jokes in the Daily News and the Post… Whew, I need to right this mental ship, I’m in danger of a downward spiral here.

        1. stickguy

          In that case, i don’t think Omar will have the authority to change the toilet paper role in the executive wash room with Jeffy signing off on it. And hopefully he won’t care about Omar’s job enough to do it!

    3. Kingman 26

      That is THE question on all fronts really.

      I think we may have enough, assuming there are no more injuries, to stay competitive enough to save Omar.

      Also, the performance of so many young minor leaguers seems to have shown many people that our farm is coming together, and this also has to have helped Omar overall. He gets blamed for everything bad, so he has to receive credit for this.

      In addition, good performances by some or all of Francoeur, Matthews Jr, Bay, Igarashi, Takahashi, Calero and Barajas will also make Omar look good no matter how bad MOP might be.

      If we are sucking royally, I think Jerry the Joker goes, not Omar.

      Also, I think all of the press our prospects have been getting has raised their profile, and Omar might be able to swing one of those deals Grave portrayed in his great pieces—i.e., several unproven minor leaguers for a star.

      1. njstuckintx

        Gonzi, maybe??? :)

        The only issue with Jerry going and not Omar is that usually a GM, if they haven’t won much, are tied to 2 managers. 1st time its the managers fault they didn’t win with what the GM provided them. The 2nd time, it’s on the GM’s head for not putting together the right ingredients in the soup kettle.

        1. Kingman 26

          Well, I think maybe Willie was not the issue in 2007 and 2008 as much as we may have thought; I do, however think Jerry is awful.

          Personally, and I am sure many folks disagree, I give Omar one last shot to hire a good manager.

          Backman, Teufel, Valentine, Showalter.

          I still say any of those four win more games with the precise same roster as Jerry every could.

          1. trs86

            Hmmm, not sure on Backman or Teufel winning more games. Don’t have enough MLB experience for me to say for sure that they would. I don’t think there is a chance in hell that Buck is the next manager. Bobby? Maybe?

          2. DNDJohan aka kistics

            I thought Bobby Cox was still under contract this season :P

          3. DNDJohan aka kistics

            Willie was not the one to blame. It was Delgado who got Willie fired! :)

          4. trs86

            Oh no, lets not start that garbage. Please.

          5. DNDJohan aka kistics

            LOL

  11. metsfan4decades

    I’m reading Ike Davis has been reassigned to the minors…
    That answers that question.

    1. trs86

      Good for Ike. Got a chance to build value and impress the team. Godspeed young Ike.

  12. CaseStreet

    Santana-Pelf-Ollie-Maine-Takahashi

    K-Rod, Nieve, Calero, Igarashi, Feliciano, Misch, Figueroa

    I’d much rather not see Green in the Mets system. Parnell should get sent down to AAA to work on his stuff. Maybe he can close for Buffalo.

    1. DNDJohan aka kistics

      I like it except I’d stick with Parnell and let Figgy go.

      1. CaseStreet

        Parnell still has some room for improvement, which he can do in AAA.

        Plus, I’d be worried Figgy will get picked up (just kidding, but I do think he has value as a long man/spot starter)

        1. Mr North Jersey

          Here I though I was the only one that felt Figueroa had some value.

          1. trs86

            Hey I think he has a LOT of value, as a #6 starter.

          2. Kingman 26

            In Buffalo.

    2. stickguy

      I agree with this 100%.

  13. GravediggerHebner

    Mr. NJ thanks for putting this together the way you did. I really like the chart and the fact that you linked to articles throughout that support the statements you made, very professional.

    Ultimately I disagree with you on giving Figueroa (yet) another chance, but I definitely appreciate the rational way you laid out way(s) to fit him on the roster.

    1. Mr North Jersey

      Thanks Grave, in the end I see how Figueroa may just be the victim of a numbers game. I was just trying as the title suggested to see how Figueroa can have one last look without it resulting in the Mets losing a player. I figured it would be a win win situation. Figueroa gets one last opportunity to show his Spring Training numbers are legit and the Mets have a little more time to evaluate before actually running the risk of losing a player.

      1. Kingman 26

        Figgy is most definitely a victim of a numbers game, absolutely correct.

        When one looks at the numbers used to measure the effectiveness of a pitcher, Figgy’s are atrocious, unless one is looking at a handful of starts last year, spring games against minor leaguers, or Figgy’s true calling, getting college kids out!

        But excellent work on the above chart.

        1. Mr North Jersey

          Without looking at numbers my memory is Figueroa gave the Mets what they needed when he was called upon last year.

          Of course no one is suggesting Figueroa has had a stellar career it is quite obvious he hasn’t.

          The suggestion is look at what he is doing today and decide is this a fluke or should you try and see if the Mets should ride this streak of good pitching by him a little longer till they actually have to risk losing a player?

          I’ve been following Figueroa since Winter-ball he has said at 35 everything he has done is to show he has something to offer he only wants a chance. Figueroa has given them this Spring everything he has and I would understand like TRS not adding him if it meant losing another player. That is a fair and reasonable statement.

          I want who best does the job and I am fine if that is Nieve or Misch or whomever.

          1. Kingman 26

            I definitely want the best too.

            But Figgy’s mid-season relief appearances were all bad, except for the first one.

            I personally put zero stock in his March pitching against minor leaguers and college kids—I think that is precisely what a AAAA guy like Figgy will excel at.

            If he makes the team, I will root for him as hard–or harder–than I will for others, as he is such a hard worker, and seemingly such a solid person.

            I would hope he can indeed become the next Darren Oliver, and be a surprisingly late-blooming middle inning/spot starter kind of guy.

            I just have very little faith in this, and yes, I am maybe a bit biased, as many of us are towards certain guys.

            But again, the above chart/info is a really fantastic job.

          2. Mr North Jersey

            I don’t fully agree but I understand, in the end all we can do is wait and see and hope whatever move they make is the right one.

            Thanks for the compliment on the chart.

  14. asod75

    If I ruled the world (or at least ran the Mets), this would be the pitching staff:
    1. Johan
    2. Pelf
    3. Maine
    4. Ollie
    5. Nieve/Figs (loser goes to pen)
    6. K-Rod
    7. Calero
    8. Igarashi
    9. Feliciano
    10. Takahashi
    11. Parnell
    12. Nieve/Figs

    It’s not that I’m the biggest Figgy booster in the world. I like the guy and let’s face it, he’s had a pretty mediocre career. I view him right now as a placeholder while Niese gets more starts at AAA. I also like having two lefties in the pen, and I believe Taka with his funky delivery and assortment of pitches (and better fastball) would be more suited to this role than Misch, who is a true junkballer. Don’t really mind losing Misch, would like to hold on to Nieve, since he’s got a mid 90′s heater which could help in the pen. I realize Green will probably be on the team instead of Parnell, which is a shame because I think Parnell could help the squad if used properly (not overused like Jerry did last year). Green just flat-out sucks. The pitching staff is going to be the Achille’s heel for this team. We’re basically relying on a lot of question marks throughout the starting rotation and bullpen, but I’m still fired up for the season. Maybe everybody steps up and we’re happy Mets fans. Let’s hope!

  15. GravediggerHebner

    Dave Singer puts forth some interesting numbers in the case against Figueroa.

    http://nysportsdog.blogspot.com/2010/03/im-not-feeling-figgy-love.html

    I’m looking at the 2009 QS list and lots of guys had 50% or lower, such as Scott Baker, Barry Zito, Jeremy Guthrie, Cole Hamels, Mike Pelfrey, Johnny Cueto, Max Scherzer and Braden Looper as just some examples.

    Basically these guys fall into two categories: fairly well-paid established veterans or young guys with upside. Unfortunately for Figueroa, he is neither of those things and that lends to his expendability IMO.

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