Well, this is it. Within a week from now, the 2010 Baseball Season will be underway and like true baseball and Met fans that we are, it is time to put our money where our mouth is and record our predictions for the Mets and the N.L. East.
We, TRDMB writers, have weighed in our opinions.
So here they are along with some commentary.
TRS86
1st. Phillies: Assuming they have no injuries and Hamel returns to slightly normal form. They will win the division by 3-5 games
2nd. Mets: Obviously a lot will rest on our injured guys coming back and performing. Next our mid-rotation has to step up. The Mets will compete with the Braves and the Rockies for the Wild Card right up to the last week of the Season.
3rd. Braves: Offensive concerns and a uniquely put together Bull Pen are two factors that might affect the Braves Season. N0t to  mention the aging players with nagging injuries. If Chipper and McCann are going to miss significant time, the Braves could be in trouble.
4th.  Marlins: Just too young and inexperienced
5th. Nationals: Just too bad to compete.
Kingman
1st. Phillies: I never root for the Phillies, unless they play the Yankees. But they remind me of the 86′ Mets and have done more right the last few years than any team in baseball. And they have not won simply by outspending the Yankees.
2nd. Braves: Their pitching is incredible and their Bull Pen is pretty good too. With Chipper and added youngsters along with Bobby Cox’s last year just might act as a motivator to get the most out of everyone. Of course, the Braves will also give the Mets fits every time they play them.
3rd. Mets: The Mets are my blood, I bet on them to win the Pennant and World Series when inI was in  Las Vegas in February. Although I would love to be SO wrong here, I only see the Mets pitching staff, even with Ollie, Maine and Pelf pitching WELL, to only win 85 games. But I would love to be wrong. However, what I have seen from Mejia, Davis, Fmart and the rest of the Junior Core has me already picking us 1st in 2011.
4th. Marlins: They will fall back in a somewhat hugely improved division.
5th. Nationals:Â A team clearly to remain 5th in this group.
GraveDiggerHebner
1st. Phillies: I think the 3-time defending Champions Phillies haven’t come back to the pack.
Three way tie
2nd. Braves-Marlins- Mets.- Listed in Alphabetically order only, these teams are all imperfect enough depending on how things break for any of them.  I do believe that all these teams will spend the season beating on each other and therefore their total wins will not be high enough for the Wild Card to come out of this division.
5th. Nationals: Not improved enough to leapfrog anyone in the division.
MrBaby
1st- Braves: With a healthy Hudson back as the ace and Derek Lowe the number 4 starter, the Braves have arguable the best rotation in the division and now with the addition of Billy Wagner to shut things down, they could be tough to beat. If Jason Heyward could protect Chipper Jones and Glaus makes a comeback, the Braves could have a solid line up. In addition, then there’s the intangible emotion players will have playing for Bobby Cox.
2nd-Phillies: No way Ibanez has a duplicate performance of 2009 and I’m betting that Roy Halladay has a repeat of 2009- strong start with a weak finish. Phillies have problems with the back end of their rotation which means that they will lead the division much of the way and then fade into the Wild Card by season’s end.
3rd-Mets: I’m optimistic, but there are too many questions at too many positions. 85 wins and 4-5 games back in the Wild Card. Wait until next year!!
4th-Nationals: GM Mike Rizzo has done a remarkable job remaking the Nationals and with Morgan leading off in front of Zimmerman, Dunn and I-Rod, they could score a lot of runs-more than the Marlins I’ll bet. They have a great shot of finishing near 500. especially if Strasburg gets into the show by mid-season and Wang makes a full recovery.
5th-Marlins: Other than Ramirez, Dan Uggla and Cantu, there’s not a lot of offense. There’s still a lot of power arms in the rotation, but their defense is woeful.
Dirty Sanchez
1st- Phillies: The reality is that they are in a class of their own..the division is theirs to lose.
2nd-Mets: Not being biased but I think they can compete very well for the Wild Card.
3rd-Marlins: They are just a few years away from being really dangerous…but for now they will just continue to scare teams
4th-Braves: Letting go of Javier Vasquez was not a smart move and I just don’t see much offense.
5th-Nationals: Rotation, Rotation, Rotation…it’s just not there yet, even with the inexperienced Strausburg.
Mrose
1st-Phillies: I’m not gonna say they runaway with the division, but at this point, unless they get 2009 Met-like injuries, you can’t bet against them. I see them winning just over 90 games and taking first place.
2nd-Mets: I’m sick of the media, their team has the ability and can absolutely take second and even challenge for First if Philly falters. At this point, there has been no news about Beltran being out longer than expected. and if  he gets back within a month, then the hitting has a much better pop than last year. Their relief pitching should be more solid and I think when push comes to shove, the starting pitching can be better than average.
3rd-Braves: This team will flip flop with the Mets all year. The Braves have the potential for a shut down rotation…but what else is new? It seems like that was the thought of the 90′s as well! Wagner is older but should still save a large amount of games and be more solid than Gonzalez or Soriano were, but their hitting doesn’t scares me. Besides an aging Chipper no one in their lineup truly scares me besides him except for McCann. Heyward could be a threat, but I still think the offense will be their hold back.
4th-Marlins: Of course, a young, talented team, if they keep the core(which they never do), they will absolutely get to the top of this division within years. For now, they need to get some consistency with the roster and some payroll flexibility, maybe with the new stadium and MLB’s slap, they will.
5th Nationals: Seriously, who in their right minds TRULY thinks this team is better than the Mets or anyone else in this division? Are they making progress? Sort of. They signed a few veterans and spent some money that will likely throw away, but of course have some young players(Strasburg) who should make them a contender years down the road. I don’t buy the hype of them having a great off season; however, I d0 think they will surprise a few teams and be able to compete with them but all in all, they still stay in the gutter.
Prismo
1st Phillies
2nd-Mets
3rd- Braves
4th-Marlins
5th-Nationals
The Mets will finish second place in the division if Jose Reyes returns to the line up within two weeks of Opening Day and Carlos Beltran returns within a month. The second place I’m predicting isn’t a glorious Silver Medal, however, but a mediocre mid-80′s win with a sloppy finish. This team can compete for a Wild Card, but this hopeful fate would likely rest on the shoulders of the NL Centrals’ second place team. If the Cardinals and the Cubs both finish with over 85 wins, the Mets will very likely be hung out to dry come October.
A worse fate will befall the Metropolitans if Reyes and Beltran take longer than expected. The team could easily finish at .500 or worse if more than a month goes by without two of their marquis players. A third or fourth place finish in the division becomes the likelihood in this situation.
HalfmanHalfamazin’
1st- Phillies
2nd-Mets (Wild Card winners)
3rd-Marlins
4th-Braves
5th-Nationals
The Mets(85-88 wins) will just beat out the Marlins for the Wild Card.
Metro
1st-Phillies
2nd- Braves
3rd-Marlins
4th-Mets
5th-Nationals
Mets rotation simply looks too weak with too few descent replacements for me to see the Mets any better than 81-82 wins on the high end. I hope I’m wrong.
Rusty
1st- Phillies
2nd-Mets:Â The Mets will win the Wild Card.
3rd-Braves
4th-Marlins
5th-Nationals
Gonzowill
1st-Phillies: Right now they are the team to beat and until someone beats them, they are first in my list. They have everything from pitching to hitting, however, maybe that bullpen will be their undoing.
2nd-Mets: If everyone plays to their full potential, I see them challenging the Phillies. With Reyes back and Beltran along with Frenchy and Bay, I think their line up can score runs. I’ll also pick them second because I’m a Met fan. I will be honest, their starting Pitching scares the hell out of me.
3rd Braves: A thorn in the side of the Mets, and they will continue to be. If the Mets falter just a little, I could see these Braves take second in the division.
4th Marlins: Too young and way too cheap. Their defense resembles Swiss cheese in the hot sun. They will break hearts though, maybe this year it might be the Phillies they do it to.
5th-Nationals: I applaud their ownership on spending money and at least trying to compete. It is a team of Journeymen and rag tag Free Agents to say the least but they are building something with Strasburg. If they do, this list will be upside down come 5 years from now.
116 comments
stickguy
3/31/2010-8:21am at 8:21 am (UTC -4)
Bunch of weenies. None of you have the stones to say screw it and pick the Mets?
j/k. Maybe.
Although most of you are hedging your bets (playing both sides of the fence?) by picking them 2nd.
Personally, I think this is the year where the wheels come off the Philly bus. Or at least it would be justice, since this is also the year where the philly fans have crossed over the line from being thankful that the team came together and is having a good run, to thinking they are entitled to another WS appearance. IOW, they are developing Yankeefanitis.
Should have saved my diatribe from the last post for this one!
trs86
3/31/2010-8:26am at 8:26 am (UTC -4)
I think that until someone knocks Philly off they are the team to beat. Just like in 2007 we were the team to beat and we were beaten.
rustyjr
3/31/2010-8:33am at 8:33 am (UTC -4)
Just calling it like I sees it the mets upgraded their offEnce while the rotation is on par as last year – 90 wins should be attainable but the phils will probably win at the least 92
prismo
3/31/2010-8:33am at 8:33 am (UTC -4)
I thought it took stones for most of us to pick the Mets even making 2nd place!
rustyjr
3/31/2010-8:34am at 8:34 am (UTC -4)
Any change in the od forcast ?
prismo
3/31/2010-8:37am at 8:37 am (UTC -4)
Looks similar. I think we might get by with NO rain on Monday though. Looks like that cold front timing might mean a better chance for rain during Thursday’s game instead of Wednesday’s.
rustyjr
3/31/2010-8:43am at 8:43 am (UTC -4)
Good you are allowed to live
stickguy
3/31/2010-8:56am at 8:56 am (UTC -4)
Nah, that was just not trying to upset the readers!
ceetar
3/31/2010-8:54am at 8:54 am (UTC -4)
I’ll pick the Mets. cowards, all of you.
1. Mets
We can’t really count last year with all the injuries. in 2006-2008 it was their division to lose. Their misplays and failures opened the door fo the Phillies. I expect no different this year, except that they have the attitude and experience to play strong down the stretch and not throw away games. I know Manuel is still in issue, particularly with his bullpen use and sac-bunting, but the Mets players know what he is and are too talented to let it be too bad. The pitching won’t be that woefully bad, although there will probably be spurts of it, but they’ve all got talent, and they’ll win games.
2. Phillies
They have a good offense, and likely will continue to compete with the Mets for tops in run-scored. But their pitching is weak. Halladay is only getting older, with a lot of mileage. He’s still amazing, but maybe just a tad less amazing? I don’t think Hamels reverts to anything close to an ace, and actually think he mimics what Pelfrey does to some regard. Blanton is average, Happ is nowhere near a lock to repeat what he did in 2/3rds of a season last year, and Moyer..need I say more? I don’t trust Lidge to be anything, and I don’t really like any of their bullpen guys, but I never have and that pitching coach must be at least somewhat decent to get what he has out of them. Still, they won 93 games in a week division, I think they’ll struggle to top 90 this year.
3. Braves
They’ve got the pitching not to completely suck. Heyward should not be annointed rookie of the year prior to playing a game, but they do have _some_ offense. Middle of the pack, slightly above .500, their bullpen, particularly it’s age, is suspect, but they’ll be a competitive team.
4. Marlins
They’re just not talented. They hope rookies and prospects come through and have big seasons, but I just don’t see it. The ownership has no commitment to win, and hence, they won’t.
5. Nationals
Improved, have some decent young pitching, but in the end just don’t have the tools to be good. Definitely win some more games this year though.
prismo
3/31/2010-8:57am at 8:57 am (UTC -4)
Ladies and gentlemen, the Optimistic Mets Fan.
stickguy
3/31/2010-9:00am at 9:00 am (UTC -4)
You are my new favorite!
I do wish they could get a new manager (soon, it will be soon).
But right now, what Omar should really do is take a serious look at the ptiching (guys out of whack, mechanically and mentally), and ask himself what the hell is my PC doing about this? With the obvious answer being nothing, make a bold move, and find someone else and just ditch Warthen. GIve the team a shot in the arm.
I am actually encouraged by the SP, because they all seem to be healthy. And they do still have talent (“stuff”). So all we need is something to get them over the hump and on a roll.
ceetar
3/31/2010-9:04am at 9:04 am (UTC -4)
I agree. It’s weird, I’m extremely confident in the players, and nervous about the guys that tell them what to do. Read between the lines on the ‘pitching is not ready’ thread on metsblog. Warthen messing with Perez and it sounds like it’s not working right. I really think he stunted Pelfrey’s growth, but it’s time for him to break out as well. With all the knowledge they supposedly absorbed with Koufax and Franco and whoever else was there this spring, maybe they start to take strides on their own.
stickguy
3/31/2010-9:08am at 9:08 am (UTC -4)
that’s why I think a fresh voice coming in, especially one that is strong on the mechanics aspect (the fundies), could work wonders.
Just shove aside all the recent crap, and just address the immediate issues, while giving them a boost of confidence.
Often, a small tweak in a pitchers delivery has a huge impact on their stuff. Make that, and give them a shot of confidence, and any one of these goes could go off on a nice run.
metsfan4decades
3/31/2010-10:13am at 10:13 am (UTC -4)
I too agree with this. Too much tinkering going on. And it’s not just pitching. What was up with Murph and that straight up and down stance he had most of ST? Last week, he went back to what looked to be more comfortable for him, sort of crouching. And he’s looked better at the plate this past week because of it.
CaseStreet
3/31/2010-8:40am at 8:40 am (UTC -4)
1 mets – We’ll clean house with MOP and best lineup in NL
2 phillies – bullpen issues
3 braves – weak lineup and old bullpen
4 marlins – other than Han ram and JJ, not much there
5 nats – still bunch of misfits
prismo
3/31/2010-8:43am at 8:43 am (UTC -4)
What’s all this MOP nonsense I’m hearing about recently? Does that just mean middle relief?
metsfan4decades
3/31/2010-8:47am at 8:47 am (UTC -4)
MOP = Maine, Ollie, Pelfrey
prismo
3/31/2010-8:56am at 8:56 am (UTC -4)
oy vei
njstuckintx
3/31/2010-8:58am at 8:58 am (UTC -4)
and hopefully MOP does not equal DOA.
metsfan4decades
3/31/2010-8:52am at 8:52 am (UTC -4)
I agree with Stick in that this year could very well be the year the Phillies wheels come off – or at least start to unhinge. They’ve been rolling the dice with health for 4 years and coming up lucky. I think their rotation after Doc is all question marks and their BP right now is a mess.
That being said, I think the Mets, their pitching AS currently constructed, is not enough to unseat the Phils. But it’s a long season, anything can and does happen, so trying to predict this division right now is just too hard. I’ll take a shot at it though:
1. Phils
2. Mets/Braves – this is going to go back and forth right down to the wire. If Mets stay healthy they should wind up 2nd
3. One of Braves/Mets
4. Marlins
5. Nats
So much could happen over the course of a season it’s just too hard to predict. I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed and won’t write off the Mets until they’re mathematically eliminated.
ceetar
3/31/2010-8:57am at 8:57 am (UTC -4)
Thoughts? I want to do a ‘magic number’ countdown this year on my blog to when the Mets were predicted to reach their win total. Who’s pick should i use? PECOTA? Cerrone’s? Vegas?
stickguy
3/31/2010-9:02am at 9:02 am (UTC -4)
Take the average FWICG poster prediction.
Better get it going soon, since I think that might be about 8.
trs86
3/31/2010-8:58am at 8:58 am (UTC -4)
Perhaps this will make you feel better.
Mets team Spring ERA (5.14) is better than
Redsox
Rockies
Yankees
Angels
Also in the 5′s
Cards
Rangers
What do all fo these teams have in common? They all expect to compete for their division and or a spot in the playoffs.
Relax.
trs86
3/31/2010-8:59am at 8:59 am (UTC -4)
Speaking of useless stats, the terrible Mets pen is 2nd in the MLB for saves this ST. Talk about useless.
trs86
3/31/2010-9:03am at 9:03 am (UTC -4)
Also useless they are #8 in the majors in walks given up, that’s an improvement right?
stickguy
3/31/2010-9:06am at 9:06 am (UTC -4)
ST is also the ultimate in small sample size. Plus, it in no way resembles regular season baseball.
The most important thing is to come out healthy. And other than Murphy (what is up with him anyway?) it seems like they did that, at least the pitching (other than Escobar).
And who knows what the adrenelin rush of real BB does to these guys?
ceetar
3/31/2010-9:08am at 9:08 am (UTC -4)
All useless, then again, what were they working on? limiting walks? So throwing more strikes. so erring on the side of missing over the plate than missing off the plate? So possibly giving up more home runs, a risk they might not take in a real game?
stickguy
3/31/2010-9:10am at 9:10 am (UTC -4)
probably working on whatever nonsense Warthen told them to.
And since it didn’t work, when the real games start, they will revert to what they are comfortable with. And hopefully just do what Barajas tells them to (don’t think Meat!)
udontmesswthejohan
3/31/2010-9:35am at 9:35 am (UTC -4)
“The Mets have asked Perez to throw more strikes, something new for a pitcher who has been known as “effectively wild.”
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2010/03/31/2010-03-31_perezs_pounding_springs_questions.html#ixzz0jlFGfaUw
Throwing strikes, there’s a novel approach for a major league pitcher.
udontmesswthejohan
3/31/2010-9:32am at 9:32 am (UTC -4)
“Maine’s ERA is 7.94 and Pelfrey’s 7.97. In 49-1/3 innings, the three have allowed 16 home runs – some helped by Florida’s spring winds – and 70 hits.”
stickguy
3/31/2010-9:35am at 9:35 am (UTC -4)
C.C. is sporting an ERA of 7.33 or so. FWIW
udontmesswthejohan
3/31/2010-9:39am at 9:39 am (UTC -4)
The difference is that CC is an established pitcher. Certain guys can afford to shrug off a bad spring like CC and Johan and then “turn” it on once the curtain comes down. Do you think Maine, Ollie, and Perez have the same track record as those guys? Are you as confident that they can turn it on once the season starts. If ST didn’t matter at all, then people’s jobs wouldn’t depend on it. MOP have their jobs at this point by default, not because they have performed well this spring, or because they have been consistent on the major league level for any length of time.
ceetar
3/31/2010-9:44am at 9:44 am (UTC -4)
It’s not about being an established pitcher, it’s about having an established job. Everyone works on things and tweaks things (even hitters) new delivery, new pitch, “I wonder if I throw this fastball on 3-2 over here…whoops, guess not.”
They take chances they wouldn’t take in a real game. They experiment.
And none of the opposing hitters got a bead on our pitchers this spring. Any scouting report they take into the season isn’t going to be helpful.
udontmesswthejohan
3/31/2010-9:55am at 9:55 am (UTC -4)
That’s all well and good coming from a veteran who has enjoyed consistent success at the big league level, but none of these three can say that. What they should be working on is getting people out. That’s it.
You can’t just throw out the ST stats in this case. I’m sorry, but they were question marks coming into ST, and they remain that way starting the season.
metsfan4decades
3/31/2010-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
Thanks for doing this research. Puts things in a way better perspective.
stickguy
3/31/2010-9:13am at 9:13 am (UTC -4)
Last point for a while. And something I have probably already beaten into the ground, but that never stopped me before.
Like MF4D pointed out (on her way over to the dark side), the pitching staff has some questions AS CONSTRUCTED right now (caps mine).
Well, no pitching staff stays the same all year. Some change radically. Last year, even the Phils ended up with 3 different starters when the playoffs rolled around than what they started with. And quite a few new pen arms.
So, if some of the Met SPs falter in the real games, or some of the pen guys aren’t getting it done, they will get replaced. Hopefully of course with better performers!
ceetar
3/31/2010-9:19am at 9:19 am (UTC -4)
Yes, and I think Omar realized that rather than take a risk on a guy like Lackey, or the other crap available, he’d be better off seeing which guys have bounceback seasons, and making a trade for something mid-season.
stickguy
3/31/2010-9:25am at 9:25 am (UTC -4)
and that was reasonable.
The general theme seems to be that the SPs (MOP) are question marks, not untalented. So the question is really will they give you good outings, not can they.
So you are right, Omar really needed to see them in action to answer the will question. Same with the Pen. he brought in a bunch of fresh arms to sort through. And as the Acosta claim shows, he is still collecting. Could actually be some nice RP depth at AAA this year (unlike previous years).
Also quite possible some interesting SP option hits the wire and gets snapped up. Hell, I’m surprised he didn’t jump on Robertson for 400K (maybe he was holding out for Dontrelle!)
Oh, you thin the Mets have rotation issues. The Tigers apparently have annointed Dontrelle as the #3 in the rotation.
metsfan4decades
3/31/2010-10:33am at 10:33 am (UTC -4)
Exactly. That’s the point I want most quantified. Right now, as currently constructed.
Since we all know this staff going into opening day is not the same one we’ll have end of season, anything can happen. And anything usually does happen.
With the health, offense and youth on our side, there is still a good chance we can do this. Depends on what the FO does and we all know that is usually scary.
I’m not on the dark side – yet. LOL. Just pointing out what I see going into the season. So much has to break right for us to wind up on top. It’s not impossible by any means, but odds don’t look good right now to me.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/31/2010-9:25am at 9:25 am (UTC -4)
Very surprised by the optimistic Kingman’s pick!
I agree with most of you that the Mets will be #2/3 in NL East. But I do believe that the Mets will be competitive all season long and if they get couple breaks here and there, I think there’s a good chance that the Met will make the playoffs.
stickguy
3/31/2010-9:27am at 9:27 am (UTC -4)
he must have made them a few days ago. Certainly not last night!
Kingman 26
3/31/2010-10:03am at 10:03 am (UTC -4)
Our pitching staff will be applying for disaster recovery funds from FEMA.
This is going to be a disaster.
Great offense, good defense, decent speed, mediocre bullpen, horrible starters.
Sorry Stick; I will of course be here yelping in all exclamations if I am wrong.
Cannot go with the “it’s spring, they are working on things” with the pen—every guy other than KRod is trying to earn a spot or a better spot, and other than Feliciano, they ALL have stunk.
Love the team, but Dark and Oleo are probably right about this year.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/31/2010-9:28am at 9:28 am (UTC -4)
Any news on Muphy and Cora?
njstuckintx
3/31/2010-9:36am at 9:36 am (UTC -4)
Apparently they still aren’t liked by many, viewed of as place holders and necessary evils for the season and yet are adored by a select few for their grit, hardwork and determination.
As for health, no status updates are known to me.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/31/2010-9:42am at 9:42 am (UTC -4)
LOL… I was talking about the latter, but thanks for the update
ceetar
3/31/2010-9:41am at 9:41 am (UTC -4)
Murphy strained knee, day to day.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/31/2010-9:43am at 9:43 am (UTC -4)
Ike Davis!!!!
ceetar
3/31/2010-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
he’s not ready.
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/31/2010-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
I can just hear the Ike Davis chants when Murphy makes errors or struggles at the plate.
ceetar
3/31/2010-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
I’m expecting we want Ike chants when Murphy swings and misses at strike one.
prismo
3/31/2010-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
you can’t handle the ike!
njstuckintx
3/31/2010-9:46am at 9:46 am (UTC -4)
I’m thinking we’ll be seeing Ike in late May. F-mart I think we’ll see either 1 of 2 ways. Sept. Call up or bench dude for when GMJ/Pagan gets traded/injured.
ceetar
3/31/2010-10:01am at 10:01 am (UTC -4)
reporting that if Murphy doesn’t go opening day that we see Ike.
metsgirl31
3/31/2010-9:43am at 9:43 am (UTC -4)
1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Marlins
5. Nationals
Yea the Phillies won the division the last 3 years, the team to beat, its theirs to lose, whatever. The Mets are my team and I pick the Mets to win.
ceetar
3/31/2010-9:45am at 9:45 am (UTC -4)
There is no such thing as team to beat. Remember, you don’t get a handicap for winning the division in previous seasons.
metsgirl31
3/31/2010-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
I agree but it looks like people are giving that to them for winning the last few years. Whatever happened to it being a new season?
stickguy
3/31/2010-9:49am at 9:49 am (UTC -4)
Just a bigger target on your back! Hopefully other teams are getting up to beat teh Phils now, not the Mets.
njstuckintx
3/31/2010-9:51am at 9:51 am (UTC -4)
That would be handi-capable!
The more I look at it, I can actually envision the following. In fact, I’ll make this my official NJ Stuck in the wastelands of TX picks.
1. Mets
2. ATL
3. Phillies
4. Marlins
5. Nats
This will be predicated upon a monster offense from the Mets, a breakdown of the Phils (ibanez going down, Hamels going down, bullpen issues) and Omar doing something I do not think he’s ever done before; make a blockbuster deal during the season.
Here’s to optimism (or lunacy).
ceetar
3/31/2010-10:00am at 10:00 am (UTC -4)
It’s not complete lunacy. a stretch maybe, but not out of the question. Ibanez could easily be the “Castillo” contract of the Mets, without the consistant offensive production.
What if Werth’s last year ewas a career year, Hamels stays average, and Halladay’s age catches up to him?
Kingman 26
3/31/2010-10:04am at 10:04 am (UTC -4)
It’s pretty well qualified for lunacy, as is comparing Ibanez’s contract to Slappy’s.
ceetar
3/31/2010-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
Turns 38 this year. signed through 2011. Were they bidding against themselves? Got off to a fast start, but faded a little bit. Played good defense but not really known for it. could easily be an albatross.
Kingman 26
3/31/2010-10:24am at 10:24 am (UTC -4)
Late bloomer; did not come into his own till age 30. Reasonable 3-year deal for a guy who has produced very well and incredibly consistently for the last 8 years. Defense, like Bay most likely, nowhere near as bad as advertised. Faded after an injury. Most likely will be in shape, have a great attitude as always, and when the year’s over, pencil him in for 20+ HR, 30+ 2B, 90+ RBI, decent BA/OBP, fine fundamental play and excellent leadership.
I am most definitely biased, as I wanted him bad when the Phils signed him.
But of course, every moron on Metsblog bleated about how we “don’t need another lefty bat” and how he could not field.
fongy2
3/31/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
Well stated!
Also note that Ibanez played the last 3 months
of the season a torn
muscle under his ribcage
which really hurt his production,post Allstar break.
trs86
3/31/2010-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
Doesn’t that happen a lot more when you are 37+? See Alou.
fongy2
3/31/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
Except he was 40 when Omar signed him…AND…
Omar didn’t know enough to just walk away after the first season BUT
rather try it again @41!
trs86
3/31/2010-10:54am at 10:54 am (UTC -4)
Right so he could have signed him to a guaranteed 3 year deal. That would have been much better.
Not really comparing their contracts. Just saying that when OF get old they start to break down quickly. Look at Dye. Guy went from Ibanez type numbers to nothing to out of work in 1 year.
trs86
3/31/2010-10:49am at 10:49 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, Ibanez’s may be worse.
fongy2
3/31/2010-10:50am at 10:50 am (UTC -4)
Yeah………Okay.
trs86
3/31/2010-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
There is still 22 million left on Ibanez’s contract about what Castillo was paid from the beginning. If Ibanez gets injured, because he is old, and they can’t re-sign Werth because of his contract how would it not be worse?
Castillo has yet to cause the Mets NOT to sign someone.
fongy2
3/31/2010-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
And Ibanez is coming off
34-93 AND 13rbi in 15 postseason games AND as
ordinary as
he is in LF is no worse than Luis @2B
a far more important defensive position.
Kingman 26
3/31/2010-11:02am at 11:02 am (UTC -4)
That, my friend, is just plain ludicrous.
njstuckintx
3/31/2010-10:15am at 10:15 am (UTC -4)
It’s not all that often that the preseason picks all pan out. So, might as well be the Phils plunging vs. the Dodgers or Mariners or Cards.
And if the Mets bomb out, having picked them for 3rd or 4th in the division isn’t going to make me feel any better anyway.
udontmesswthejohan
3/31/2010-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
Yeah serious man, you can’t compare Ibanez’s contract to Castillo’s. Even if he never plays another game for them, his offensive output from last year will dwarf Castillo’s.
ceetar
3/31/2010-10:22am at 10:22 am (UTC -4)
different players. Castillo creates a ton more runs than Ibanez will likely drive in over the next two years, and Castillo’s batting eye and OBP won’t “get old”.
I’ll say this right now, Castillo will have more Runs scored than Ibanez drives in.
metsfan4decades
3/31/2010-11:12am at 11:12 am (UTC -4)
I’m with you on this. I think even Philly fans are more than worried about Ibanez.
fongy2
3/31/2010-11:16am at 11:16 am (UTC -4)
Problem is hes like the
5th most important guy in their lineup AND if
he fell off the cliff they have their #1 prospect Dom Brown in waiting.
Kingman 26
3/31/2010-10:12am at 10:12 am (UTC -4)
Do people really see the ENTIRE pitching staff throwing a switch and starting to get guys out next week? Many Braves and Phils pitchers have actually been getting outs lately.
KRod and Feliciano have been fine. Johan has a track record.
EVERY other pitcher who will come north has been somewhere between very mediocre, and downright horrible.
I know I am an optimist, but those of you picking the Mets first—can I have some of what you are drinking/smoking/snorting/inhaling??
njstuckintx
3/31/2010-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
It seems you are driving the Optimist float down Reality Avenue.
Blind faith and hope, baby! Until the wheels fall off, anyway.
ceetar
3/31/2010-10:19am at 10:19 am (UTC -4)
Honesty? Well, yes, I think there has been too much history of spring training meaning ABSOLUTELY nothing, to even care what happened.
I doubt all the pitchers will start getting everyone out. I suspect April will be very touch and go for some of them. But they’ll probably all have some success, and build on that. Nothing is perfect, but they’re not all going to reach May with 6+ ERAs. I’d bet a fortune on that.
udontmesswthejohan
3/31/2010-10:23am at 10:23 am (UTC -4)
Thanks for being realistic here Kingman. I think some of us really need to take off the rose colored glasses and be honest. To say that the ST stats don’t matter, or that these guys will, like you say, miraculously start getting people out is just ridiculous.
Plus, we are now counting on Phillies getting hurt, getting old, or just to start sucking out of nowhere. Nice game plan.
Kingman 26
3/31/2010-10:34am at 10:34 am (UTC -4)
The rose colored glasses are smashed under my steel boot. Spring stats can be explained away in many cases, but not for bullpen guys competing for a spot. And it is VERY hard to explain them away for Pelf and Ollie’s last games as the opener approaches.
The Phils’ pitchers have largely done well this spring, and most of the Braves’ have excelled.
And if the starters are “experimenting” based on Warthen’s suggestions….
(Insert projectile vomit noise here.)
Hey, I will watch, and I will enjoy the team as I have since the 70s as long as they clearly are trying; that is all I ask, and as Humphrey Bogart once said, I do believe that all they owe us is a good performance. If they just are not good enough, well, what can they do other than try.
And I firmly believe we have a terrible manager and coaching staff.
But I am very enthused about the future with the Junior Core developing. At least one or two of Mejia/Davis/FMart/Thole are going to be very solid major leaguers; maybe all of them will be. Add that and one more reliable # 2 or # 3 starter to what we have and a very good team will emerge.
But I must prepare myself for what is almost sure to come. No matter what anyone says, the Phils are solid as hell, even with a poor bullpen, and they DO have heart/grit/etc. They are going nowhere except back to the playoffs.
udontmesswthejohan
3/31/2010-10:55am at 10:55 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, don’t get me wrong, I’ll be answering the bell come Monday and more or less every day after that until the end of the season, or I just can’t take it anymore and need to move on with my life.
I think people are confusing the issue here. We all HOPE that the Mets will stay healthy and contend with the Phillies, but if we are being honest with ourselves, and we are trying to make predictions on what will PROBABLY happen, and not what we WANT to happen, then yes I agree, the Phils are tough.
Come what may, I’m ready for the season to start.
trs86
3/31/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
It feels much better to just say: “This team sucks, we won’t win, …… Mets will finish 4th.”
What’s wrong with people at the beginning of the year having blind optimism? We all know how hard it will be to win and how unlikely it is.
udontmesswthejohan
3/31/2010-11:04am at 11:04 am (UTC -4)
Optimism is one thing. Like I said above, I hope I’m wrong and that this team will complete. Blind optimism invloves ignoring logic and reason, and that should be avoided at all costs in baseball and all other walks of life.
Kingman 26
3/31/2010-11:08am at 11:08 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I have to agree.
Optimism plus realistic and fact-based thoughtful evaluation equals sensibility.
metsgirl31
3/31/2010-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
Well I disagree. If Opening Day isn’t the time for blind optimism/hope then I don’t know what is.
metsgirl31
3/31/2010-10:27am at 10:27 am (UTC -4)
Well I’m not drinking/smoking/snorting/inhaling anything. I just choose to believe until or IF they give me reason not to believe. I’d rather be wrong for picking them 1st than right for picking the Phillies 1st.
njstuckintx
3/31/2010-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
metsfan4decades
3/31/2010-10:47am at 10:47 am (UTC -4)
I applaud you for the strength of your convictions, considering you’re in the minority. You go girl – stand by them. You may just turn out to prove those of us who are not yet seeing 1st place, wrong.
fongy2
3/31/2010-10:29am at 10:29 am (UTC -4)
As we approach the opener it is hard to admit BUT the playoffs look like a real long shot.
Maybe this will happen or that BUT…TO ME, we look like the
4th best team in this Division.
If the form and trends of the past 3,4 seasons hold true…
The Phils will win close to 95 games and the division solidly.
The Braves and Marlins look to be over .500 BUT no more than
85 win type teams.
As for us….,.500 will be a struggle. Our line up looks pretty good should Reyes return to form and if Beltran comes back…..
before too long….And isn’t a shell of himself early off.
That said, we just don’t have the Pitching. In the Rotation…OR
…In the Pen. We also don’t have the type of dynamic leadership…On or off the field, to maximize the talent we do
have in mid stream.
Again, Sad…..Because to me, with another solid SP AND another
solid BP arm,we could have at least competed seriously for the Wildcard.
The Phils,Cards and Rocks look to be the class of their Divisions
BUT ALL the Wildcard contenders looked flawed…..
Just to me, we look the most flawed.
oleosmirf
3/31/2010-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
I agree
I think we will finish 3rd with the Phillies winning around 94, Braves winning around 88, Mets around 82, Marlins around 80, and Nationals around 65
Kingman 26
3/31/2010-10:36am at 10:36 am (UTC -4)
Hey buddy–The future is bright…the Junior Core added to the current Core and one starter equals a perennial contender starting next year; maybe THIS year if they get Arroyo and promotions come early.
fongy2
3/31/2010-10:43am at 10:43 am (UTC -4)
And here’s hoping there will be interest in Castillo at the deadline…AND no fat new contract
for Bel-Tron!
Let him play for the money next season!
oleosmirf
3/31/2010-10:32am at 10:32 am (UTC -4)
unfortunately I dont see the Mets in the postseason this year…too many things would have to go right…
however, another poor season from Ollie and Maine as well as the hopeful progression of our prospects makes 2011 look very exciting.
If Omar is still around, which he very well might be, you can take it to the bank that he will acquire a top SP and an 8th inning guy.
1B: Davis, 2B: Tejada, SS: Reyes, 3B: Wright, LF: Bay, CF: Beltran, RF: Martinez.
SP: Santana, Lee/UFA, short term UFA, Pelfrey, Niese
Kingman 26
3/31/2010-10:35am at 10:35 am (UTC -4)
Completely, totally, wholeheartedly agree.
And a new manager will help too.
oleosmirf
3/31/2010-10:37am at 10:37 am (UTC -4)
Ive been saying the same thing all offseason…now you agree!
Kingman 26
3/31/2010-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
After closely watching and reading what the pitchers have been doing as the season is almost upon us, I am afraid optimism has given way to reality for me.
What I saw from Ollie watching the replay last night was absolutely and positively the bad Ollie; not throwing fast enough, overthrowing and tossing the ball high and outside, etc; everything bad from the past.
When you look at the stats for the five starters, it is laughable; lots of other guys have been bringing their A game as the season approaches. Pelf and Ollie have been getting much worse.
And the pen situation is more alarming, as their stats largely DO matter, as they are competing for jobs and jockeying for position.
Again, I love the team, will watch all the time, but I am tempering my expectations; that’s all.
trs86
3/31/2010-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
Wait for the 11:00 post.
fongy2
3/31/2010-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
I don’t think “The good Ollie”
ever made it back from The WBC….
Just sayin’……
fongy2
3/31/2010-10:41am at 10:41 am (UTC -4)
Let’s start with a new GM during the second half of the season who will examine what he has…And
doesn’t…And can starta true re-tooling for
2011.
metsfan4decades
3/31/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
I’m inclined to agree with this. Except I see no real reason to name a new GM until the end of the season.
Reason is, if Omar is still here end of season, if we fail b/c of pitching, I have no doubt he address that, plus 2nd base. But…..if history repeats itself, they’ll be an issue or two that crops up this year that he WON’t address.
fongy2
3/31/2010-10:56am at 10:56 am (UTC -4)
Omar can’t be trusted to fix something he doesn’t really believe
is broken.
From the Pitching(Starting and Relief) to field leadership to
his own need to be involved in aspects most other GMs don’t bother
with.
ceetar
3/31/2010-10:52am at 10:52 am (UTC -4)
Why not just sign another pitcher and go for the gold this year, mid-season? not like anyone’s good enough to run away with things.
Kingman 26
3/31/2010-10:59am at 10:59 am (UTC -4)
Another starter and a new manager and some Buffalo callups….
trs86
3/31/2010-10:53am at 10:53 am (UTC -4)
Sigh…..
Even TRDM
Kingman 26
3/31/2010-11:01am at 11:01 am (UTC -4)
Sorry buddy…if you can be optimistic with the way almost every pitcher has looked the last 7–10 days, I think you are being a tad unrealistic.
But I sure hope I am wrong and will be on here gleefully admitting it every day if I am.
Forget the stats; I know you live where you cannot watch, but if you saw Pelf and Ollie the last couple of days—their pitching, their body language, etc, you might feel differently.
Two disaster areas. Toxic.
fongy2
3/31/2010-11:13am at 11:13 am (UTC -4)
Closet Phillie Phan!!!
DNDJohan aka kistics
3/31/2010-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
I’m surprised to hear this from you since you sounded like the most optimistic fan couple weeks ago.
Yes, the pitching has been a disaster especially with MOP. It’s ST and working on different pitches is one thing, but giving up 25 HRs in one game or giving up 7 runs in 2 1/3 inning is another.
Hope the switch is turned on by next Monday.
trs86
3/31/2010-11:28am at 11:28 am (UTC -4)
Why can’t I be optimistic? Hell, there is a difference between optimistic and realistic. Realistically it will take a lot of things to go right for the Mets to win. We ALL know that. Why do we need to be reminded of it? Most of us love baseball and want to be optimistic about our team, that’s what the beginning of the season is for. That’s why opening day is great. If you want to have a pity part in March go right ahead.
metsgirl31
3/31/2010-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
+1
njstuckintx
3/31/2010-11:11am at 11:11 am (UTC -4)
I thought the same thing.
njstuckintx
3/31/2010-11:17am at 11:17 am (UTC -4)
I’ll be back this afternoon. Too much negativity this morning.
trs86
3/31/2010-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
Agreed. If you want to insist that others should not be optimistic about the season then I think you are on the wrong blog. Go to MB or something.
Again BIG difference in optimistic and realistic.
metsfan4decades
3/31/2010-11:41am at 11:41 am (UTC -4)
BIG difference in optimistic and realistic. – good point.
And I don’t think this blog comes CLOSE to the negativity I’ve seen on many other Met blogs.
At least here, those not agreeing are saying it’s realism and trying to back it up with stats, projections, etc.
Thank God no one here has started that:
‘We suck, fire everyone’ mantra…
Mr North Jersey
3/31/2010-11:48am at 11:48 am (UTC -4)
Seriously?
I been reading all the debating going on and It saddens me when we resort to telling people that maybe they should go somewhere else.
Remember why we are here.
For the record I think as usual we tend to over react as Mets fans (myself included) and the Mets past couple of starts is a clear sign of that.
I would say had they been sporting a 0.00 era we would still be concerned and would need to see what this team will do at the sound of the bell right?
asod75
3/31/2010-4:20pm at 4:20 pm (UTC -4)
I made my predictions here, guys. Feel free to pick them apart:
http://asod75.wordpress.com/2010/03/31/my-nl-east-predictions/