There’s been a lot of hoo-hah (is that how it’s spelled?) lately about the question marks in the Mets’ rotation behind the great Johan Santana. The fuss has been made rightly so, in my humble opinion. But at the same time, maybe the fretting is a bit over the top.
If you think about it, the Phillies’ rotation has just as many question marks behind Roy Halladay. After rotation lock Joe Blanton went down yesterday with a tweaked left oblique, his ability to start the season is in question. This leaves the Phillies with a likely 2-5 rotation of Hamels, Happ, Moyer, and Kendrick. Watch how I can easily spin these four starters into question marks.
- Kyle Kendrick, who posted a 5.49 ERA in 30 major league starts in 2008. In those 30 starts, he managed to average only 5.2 innings per start, leaving him back in the minors the following season. Can he improve if given the chance this season or will his ERA once again top 5.00 while stressing the team’s bullpen?
- Cole Hamels regressed in 2009, posting a very mediocre ERA of 4.32 over 32 starts. Hamels actually netted a losing record on a team that won 93 games, which isn’t easy to pull off. So far this spring his ERA is 5.57 in 21 innings. Will he rebound or continue his decline into mediocrity?
- JA Happ had a great season in 2009, albeit with only 23 starts under his belt. But could the dreaded sophomore slump set in? It would be hard for Happ to match some of his peripheral statistics from last season, and just about everyone expects regression.
- Jamie Moyer’s 47 years old and not getting any younger – he made his first major league start for the Cubs before I had my first birthday. His 4.94 ERA last season wasn’t very impressive, and now a year older, the Phillies can’t expect him to be better.
Sure, there are ways I could spin it to make it seem like all these guys may have solid years and lead the Phillies to another World Series. But we could also do this for the Mets’ “question marks”! Everyone seems to think Hamels will pitch more like his 2008 self this season, so why can’t Pelfrey once again post a sub 4.00 ERA? Oliver Perez was great in 2004 and very good three years later in 2007, so maybe he’s just on a three-year cycle and this season will be a big rebound. John Maine’s proven that when he’s healthy he’s a proven middle of the rotation starter, so why would we think any differently if he’s healthy this season? Can’t say much about Niese, but he’s still projected to be at least a middle of the rotation starter, and there’s no reason to be down on him yet.
Before I wrap this up, I need to mention the Phillies’ bullpen. Brad Lidge was terrible last season – absolutely atrocious. On Tuesday he received a cortisone shot and looks likely to start the season on the Disabled List. All this fretting about the Mets not having an 8th inning guy and the Phillies don’t even have a closer!
The point of this post isn’t to make the Phillies sound weak, but to point out that every team has its holes and every team has its question marks. This can all be spun in a positive or a negative light, and it’s easy to do so either way. So let’s relax, take a deep breath, and see how things look after a month of baseball. It’s beyond impossible to predict how any single player will play in a season, let alone an entire team. Enjoy the baseball that’s coming in less than a week and Let’s Go Mets!
21 comments
mrose
4/1/2010-7:32am at 7:32 am (UTC -4)
great article my friend
metsfan4decades
4/1/2010-7:41am at 7:41 am (UTC -4)
Anyone who has been reading along regularly knows I’ve been saying for months that Phila has as many question marks as we do when it comes to pitching.
- I’m not convinced they get the Hamels of ’08 instead of ’09. He had one great pitch, one not so great pitch and all say unless he develops a third, don’t expect great things from him.
- Blanton is Blanton – usually solid but nothing spectacular. Now an injury that may or may not sideline him come opening day.
- As you said, no one knows about Happ’s sophomore season.
- There is no way Moyer routinely pitches past the 5th and routinely pitches every 5th day.
Romero wasn’t projected to be ready opening day, now Lidge won’t be either. Even with those two, their BP is less than stellar.
Only problem is, for the start of ’09, their pitching staff was more or less the same – actually less b/c they didn’t have Doc and their ace was considered to be Hamels. Lidge wasn’t hurt, expected to be lights out, turned out not to be. They did add Lee halfway through to put them over the top. The rest? It didn’t seem to matter as they secured the NL East despite their pitching problems.
Let the games begin.
trs86
4/1/2010-8:01am at 8:01 am (UTC -4)
Speaking of April Fools, I just got a good one on my class. Told them they had to take their big mid-term today instead of tomorrow because the admin had said no test on Friday due to so many planning their vacations. Made up an email to myself and showed it to the class. Going great until a kid REALLY almost crapped his pants. I feel so wrong, LOL.
metsfan4decades
4/1/2010-8:31am at 8:31 am (UTC -4)
LOL.
Uh, oh…..better watch out. Some of them might get together and pull a prank on you for revenge….
trs86
4/1/2010-8:39am at 8:39 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, I know.
CaseStreet
4/1/2010-8:27am at 8:27 am (UTC -4)
Phillies Suck!
njstuckintx
4/1/2010-9:34am at 9:34 am (UTC -4)
+ Ph-orty.
Kingman 26
4/1/2010-8:50am at 8:50 am (UTC -4)
First off, Hamels’ 2007 and 2008 (not to mention the 2008 postseason) were infinitely better than Pelfrey’s ONE good year, in 2008. They are not in the same class based on their careers thus far.
And most importantly, anyone who has watched recent spring games, and examined the stats for ALL of our rotation members, would have to seriously have their head most firmly and deeply buried somewhere to not have concern based on that—THIS is what my concern, and the concern of others has been of late. March 1 performance is one thing—Ollie and Pelf getting absolutely shelled a week before the season starts is another.
Jamie Moyer has had an outstanding spring.
Kyle Kendrick has had an outstanding spring.
J A Happ has had a very good spring.
Of course this is not mentioned; just Hamels’ spring stats are.
Halladay (NOT coming off major surgery) and Hamels and the springs of the lesser guys on the Phils have blown the Mets’ starters performances of late out of the water.
Halladay, Hamels, Happ, Moyer, Kendrick.
Santana, Pelfrey, Ollie, Maine, Niese.
metsfan4decades
4/1/2010-8:53am at 8:53 am (UTC -4)
On that note, just saw this on MC’s blog:
Oliver Perez could pitch in the bullpen during the first week of the season, because of the off days. Perez is healthy, but has not shown the command the team hoped to see.
trs86
4/1/2010-8:54am at 8:54 am (UTC -4)
“The point of this post isn’t to make the Phillies sound weak, but to point out that every team has its holes and every team has its question marks.”
prismo
4/1/2010-8:57am at 8:57 am (UTC -4)
Thanks. Obviously I don’t think the Phillies are a weak team…I predicted them to win the division and I think they’ll win around 90 games again this season.
gategem
4/1/2010-7:34pm at 7:34 pm (UTC -4)
Obviously every team has its holes and question marks and that probably goes for the 1927 Yankees. But at this stage I don’t care about the 1927 Yankees or for that matter the 2010 Phillies. I’m just concerned with the team I root for, the 2010 Mets. And if you want a decent, less biased than most Phillies blogs, analysis on the team go to:
http://www.sbnation.com/2010/3/29/1395635/2010-mlb-preview-phillies-philadelphia
prismo
4/1/2010-8:55am at 8:55 am (UTC -4)
Weren’t you one of the people telling me a few weeks ago that spring training stats are practically meaningless for players who a lock to make the big league team? And you were one of the eternal optimists just a week or two ago! What happened man? Suddenly a complete pessimist. And I’m cool with that, I mean…it won’t affect how the team plays, so you have the right to your opinion.
Kingman 26
4/1/2010-9:03am at 9:03 am (UTC -4)
Yes, I was–a few weeks ago.
Now the season is upon us, and our rotation members have regressed or not improved–every one.
Did you look at Happ, Kendrick, and Moyer’s stats?
Did you see any of Ollie or Pelf’s last games?
In addition, and I have tried to make this distinction again and again, every bullpen guy we have outside of KRod is trying for a spot in the league, or a better spot in the pen, and almost every guy has been terrible. This falls outside of the guys who are guaranteed their spot. Their stats COUNT–that’s why the pen is still an undecided mess with players like Figueroa and Dessens being considered this late.
Pelf and Ollie looked terrible and lost; especially Ollie.
I AM an optimist, and I will be watching and enjoying as long as the players expend effort, which I fully expect.
The pitching, considering past performance and the date on the calendar, looks, to me, very alarming.
And it is very telling that you cited Hamels’ spring stats, but ignored, Moyer, Happ, and Kendrick’s!
prismo
4/1/2010-9:11am at 9:11 am (UTC -4)
Notice the name of my post “Spin Zone” and if you read it you would see where I explicitly said that I was spinning it to show only the negative stuff for these players, and that I could just as easily shown all positives. I’m done though…I thought I made it all clear in the post. Oh well.
Kingman 26
4/1/2010-9:17am at 9:17 am (UTC -4)
OK, maybe I missed that.
trs86
4/1/2010-9:18am at 9:18 am (UTC -4)
You did and it was a very nice article.
I thought the point was that the media can make things look a lot better or a lot worse than it is.
prismo
4/1/2010-9:15am at 9:15 am (UTC -4)
At least we’ll both be enjoying the upcoming baseball, for better or worse!
Kingman 26
4/1/2010-9:18am at 9:18 am (UTC -4)
+1000!
You got that right!
Have a great day, and I will be the FIRST one on here gleefully calling myself a schmuck if even just two of Maine, Ollie and Pelf succeed!
ceetar
4/1/2010-8:55am at 8:55 am (UTC -4)
They’re not as far out as you think. Hamels basically has an extra year on Pelfrey.
Maine has pitched well when he’s healthy (he is) Perez , while erratic, tends to win at least as many games as he loses.
Let’s not annoint Hamels an ace just because he had two good years early on. one year could be called an abberation, but not when it’s 30% of the sample and is the freshest data.
Happ has had 2/3rds of a good season. Moyer is ancient and a small sample spring in warm weather is not proof of anything, nor of Kendrick who has shown nothing. So maybe the Phillies have a slightly small question mark? doesn’t matter. This post is just another example of why the Phillies won’t run away with anything, our guys will have a chance to prove themselves and Omar the time to make a change if they’re not holding their own in June.
stickguy
4/1/2010-9:47am at 9:47 am (UTC -4)
and yet, the mets have a better record than the Phils in the spring.