Baseball Prospectus unveiled their annual pre-season staff picks today, be sure to check them out. Among items of interest to New York Mets fans the 12 writers’ picks averaged out to a 3rd place finish for the Mets. As a group they believe no Met will win any after-season award, although Johan Santana did receive one author’s (Shawn Hoffman) 3rd place Cy Young award prediction.
No individual author felt the Mets would finish higher than 3rd place and one (Jeff Euston) predicts a last place Mets finish which makes him the favorite author of Nationals fans.
Baseball Prospectus offers this fine certificate of achievement to the 2010 New York Mets
21 comments
stickguy
4/4/2010-5:46pm at 5:46 pm (UTC -4)
OK, they were predicted for 1st last year and finished 4th. So average it all out, and they shoudl finish 1st this year.
Maybe my math is a touch off, but close enough.
basically, they have no freaking clue either. Mets could easily be in 1st. or 4th. or anywaher in between (I guess that would be 2nd or 3rd, right?)
gipperpdx
4/4/2010-5:48pm at 5:48 pm (UTC -4)
Meh. Who cares? We all know in our hearts this year is about building towards 2011 and the future. Any success this year is gravy. I look at this year as sorting out the turnover in teh manager’s office and the FO; figuring out if Pelf can step it up and if Ollie or Maine have anything at all to offer for the future; and giving the kids time to develop to be stars, role players or trade bait of our future (Ike, Jenry, Fmart,Thole, etc. Nest off-season has a deep FA class – solidify the rotation and add another piece or two plus afew of the kids, and go to war in 2011 with a new management team. Finishing above third this year would just be a bonus.
ceetar
4/4/2010-5:57pm at 5:57 pm (UTC -4)
That postseason experience for late season callup Fernando Martinez would be nice too.
It’s amazing how little thought some of these writers put into predictions. It’s so apparent that many forgo actual analysis and just pick the incumbant, and ride the negative Mets pres to them having a bad year.
gipperpdx
4/4/2010-6:01pm at 6:01 pm (UTC -4)
Wouldn’t hurt, but I’ll be happy if Fmart just makes it through a year injury-free.
stickguy
4/4/2010-6:03pm at 6:03 pm (UTC -4)
I think a big part of it is they don’t want to get laughed at, so they refuse to go out on a limb and pick a “risky” team.
at least if you pick the obvious choice, even if they bomb, you can defend it (safety in numbers I guess)
stickguy
4/4/2010-6:01pm at 6:01 pm (UTC -4)
I actually think gip makes some good points. I will say, however, that they have enough talent to be in the PS this year.
Colorado and Philly and probably St. louis look to have the best teams (fewest holes?) So that is your 3 divisions. beyond that, every team is a crap shoot, and the mets (with reasonable health, and a few good breaks) have just as good a shot as anyone.\
But I honestly feel that the window for the team is just opening (unlike many of the panicky fans that think it is closing, if not already slammed shut). This really is a young nucleus team, with just a couple of not too old vets that have life left in them.
So keep Wright and Reyes in the fold, and add a few more to the core, and this team is likely to be a perennial contender, and should actually be on the upswing.
I do think a new manager and GM (although I may waver on the GM part, if the baby core stays and comes through) would help.
The phils are a perfect example of a team with a short window. yes, I know they won a WS and went to another, but their horizon is very short. Just about everyone over 30, and some key guys only signed for 1-2 years. By 2012 at the latest, the Phils will have to be in a complete rebuilding mode (with the added bonus of a 20mill 35 YO SP on the books)!
this is one of the reasons I am not in a complete panic about this year. even if it ends up not resulting in a trip to the playoffs, i really feel next year will be better.
If the FO doesn’t fork it up of course (as in trading all the best prospects for an aging RP to try and put them over the top in 2010).
gipperpdx
4/4/2010-6:11pm at 6:11 pm (UTC -4)
Spot on, stick!
rustyjr
4/4/2010-6:20pm at 6:20 pm (UTC -4)
Is this a pacific northwest saquatch sighting ? How’s the pup
ceetar
4/4/2010-6:20pm at 6:20 pm (UTC -4)
probably end up watching the stupid teaser game tonight. Gotta get ready for tomorow though, clear the memory card ,3 sets of batteries, glove, Santana white pinstriped last season at Shea jersey.. 2009 bp blue cap with orange fringe.
those of you getting there early, I’ll be the guy wandering around the outside of the park taking pictures of just about everything.
stickguy
4/4/2010-6:36pm at 6:36 pm (UTC -4)
you actually bring your glove in? Dude, 16 is the cut off for that.
Just be a man and break a few fingers.
I went to a game with the family last year (monday night in August). had front row seats in the OF, 1 section over from the apple. Got there when they opened, and both my kids got a ball (not caught, just coerced from a player.)
One reason I like pagan. He was nice to my daughter, and threw a ball up for her. I forget who tossed up one for my son.
Can’t wait to get back up this year. Will have to get up early to see the museum.
Hey, I was ecstatic last year to find out the back parking lot had porta potties, so a museum is hot stuff!
ceetar
4/4/2010-6:39pm at 6:39 pm (UTC -4)
I only bring the glove if I think i’m gonna hang around for BP. Not having kids, it’s unlikely that I’ll get a ball without having a glove/target to present, and it increases the odds of me hanging onto a HR ball if I watch BP from the OF seats rather than bouncing off my broken fingers.
gategem
4/4/2010-11:25pm at 11:25 pm (UTC -4)
I was in a softball game once where our 3rd baseman made a bare handed stop of a hot ground ball and threw it to 1st to get the hitter. He then pressed the bones back into his hand and went to the hospital.
dirtysanchez
4/4/2010-7:24pm at 7:24 pm (UTC -4)
I think we stand a good shot to compete for the WC. At least, we will be able to see for a fact where we stack up…no more talk, time to play! Baseball is back baby!!
stickguy
4/4/2010-7:42pm at 7:42 pm (UTC -4)
of course they have a good chance. Mostly the media that are either knee jerk (and dont pay close attention, with shock value and hits, along with herd mentality), and the fatalistic fans that have themselves talked into this team being lucky to win more games than the 1979 squad.
metsfan4decades
4/4/2010-8:04pm at 8:04 pm (UTC -4)
Bah….I honestly think trying to predict anything in the NL east this year is a crap shoot – except 5th place for the Nats (sorry Washington).
The long, cold, snowy winter and it’s endless Hot Stove have come to an end. I’m happy just with the fact that I’ve got about 6 days worth of NY Met baseball to watch every week come the next 6 months – and maybe beyond.
Whatever is gonna be, is gonna be. Let the games begin.
CaseStreet
4/4/2010-8:51pm at 8:51 pm (UTC -4)
I’m fine with those predictions. Most were for third, some fourth and one last place. I can’t see them in last place, but IMO, the Mets could finish anywhere else. If we can get 40 wins out of MOP and be top 3 in runs scored, we’ll be good.
If not, we have a group of promising players joining the team very soon. That’s just as exciting for me.
Let’s Go Mets! I Believe in Comebacks!
stickguy
4/4/2010-11:22pm at 11:22 pm (UTC -4)
talk about predictions being off.
Nice pitchers duel up in Boston tonight!
CC carried his ST stats over to the regular season. And beckett is celebrating his new contract in style. A combined ERA of 9.00 for those 2.
Still pales against Chan HoHo, and his snappy ERA of 40.5
metsfan4decades
4/4/2010-11:31pm at 11:31 pm (UTC -4)
I watched the beginning of the game – hubby switched channels on me right after Schoenwiss was taking out (actually graciously let him put Ax Men on since it wasn’t a Met game….)
Yanks were winning at that point. Came back now to see what the final score was only to see the game was still in the 8th and BoSox on top now.
I forgot the Yankees/Red Sox games are more like marathons – LOL.
Wonder how MF will spin this rather poor start by CC…..
stickguy
4/4/2010-11:45pm at 11:45 pm (UTC -4)
might as well tag team it with a defense of Joba, doing his best Green impression. And throwing a ton of pitches to do it.
stickguy
4/5/2010-12:02am at 12:02 am (UTC -4)
and at least the Yankees won’t go 162-0. I was worried about that.
prismo
4/5/2010-4:10am at 4:10 am (UTC -4)
Ugh, 3 hours and 45 minutes for an 8.5 innings game. Only in the American League, folks.