So easy a caveman can do it?
Brian Costa of NJ.com wrote this morning about Mets starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey adding a splitter to his repertoire. Some key passages from Costa’s article:
- “I think the split is going to be that secondary pitch that I’ve never had,” Pelfrey said. “I’ve always known that I needed a true secondary pitch and I’ve been working on that. It just took a lot longer than I would have liked.”
- He threw 77.4 percent of his pitches for fastballs in 2009, according to the Bill James Handbook, the highest percentage in the National League. The results weren’t pretty. Pelfrey finished 10-12 with a 5.03 ERA.
- The pitch has downward movement similar to his sinker, but he throws it about 7-8 mph slower. Catcher Rod Barajas said Pelfrey’s splitter was surprisingly effective during camp, much more so than his slider and curveball. “He grips it differently (than the sinker), but he has the same arm action,” Barajas said. “So it has the look, just based on the way he throws it, like it’s going to be hard. It’s a pitch they can’t recognize, and by the time they do recognize it, it’s too late.”
In Costa’s article he uses the Bill James Handbook as a resource to note that Pelfrey led the National League with the highest percentage of fastballs thrown in 2009, 77.4%. Not having access to the Bill James Handbook, we’ve checked FanGraphs.com and they suggest Pelfrey threw his fastball 78.3% of the time, so either way the highest percentage.
Oddly though, in 2008 when Pelfrey was 13-11, 3.72 he threw his fastball even more often, 81.2% of the time. So it seems the problem lies not with his fastball but with his lack of a viable alternative pitch. As Pelfrey’s career has progressed clearly word has gotten around the league that his fastball is all he’s got demonstrated by his 2009 home run per fly ball percentage of 9.5, the highest of his career.
Tonight’s start versus the Washington Nationals will be a good opportunity to observe Pelfrey’s new splitter, how effective it is, and how often he uses it. Should he be able to use it effectively he may be able to keep opposing hitters off balance and achieve better results. That would go a long way to bolster a much maligned pitching staff in the long term, and get the Mets back to .500 in the near term.
21 comments
trs86
4/9/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
Good job Grave.
metsfan4decades
4/9/2010-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
Pelf has been quoted as saying he’s very pleased with his secondary pitches going into the season. Said he worked hard on getting that splitter down. If he’s spot on with that, he should have a very nice season.
I read that Pelfrey pretty much was rushed up to the majors (more injury needs than anything else) without development of an out pitch or secondary pitches you would normally get down in the minors. So…concerning Mejia – are the Mets listening?
And for someone with arthritis in their hands, just looking at that picture makes my fingers hurt. Ouch.
Ah….to be young.
ceetar
4/9/2010-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
I’m really confident in Pelfrey. The things you actually look for in Spring, poise, attitude, secondary pitch development, etc. all seem good. he seems almost giddy about the new pitch.
I’m expecting good things from him tonight, and I’ll be there to see it as well.
GravediggerHebner
4/9/2010-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
My only fear, and it’s not a strong one, is that there may be some confusion about the new rule/enforcement of the rule regarding where/how pitchers may ‘go to their mouths.’ If Pelf has the proper understanding of that and doesn’t break the rule, then there is little chance of ‘the yips’ rearing their ugly head, and if that doesn’t happen then I feel 2010 could be a giant step forward in Pelf’s career.
Decent secondary pitch + no yips = much better pitcher.
ceetar
4/9/2010-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
Well, I don’t believe he was called for the rule during Spring Training, where it WAS enforced, but maybe not as strictly. He’s said he’s cut down on the distractions on the mound, but we’ll see if that sticks when he’s reached a stressful point in a big game or not.
njstuckintx
4/9/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
He could, essentially, Yip himself to an intential walk. I wonder if one, not wanted to throw unnecessary pitches, just licks his hands 4 times, it that would save their arm and the possibility of a wild pitch…
GravediggerHebner
4/9/2010-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
That’s both hilarious and a reasonable suggestion. Sort of the equivalent of holding down a button combination in a video game to elicit an intentional walk instead of throwing 4 balls.
njstuckintx
4/9/2010-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
Why not, right?
It’d get them to change the rule real quick, that’s for sure.
ceetar
4/9/2010-12:17pm at 12:17 pm (UTC -4)
Then argue that it’s “faster” and you’re helping to speed up the game.
njstuckintx
4/9/2010-12:25pm at 12:25 pm (UTC -4)
Oh, it’s be faster, but can you imagine the ESPN replays of dudes licking their palms a couple of times? I giggle just thinking of it.
DNDJohan aka kistics
4/9/2010-12:39pm at 12:39 pm (UTC -4)
You guys are silly. That will never happen. Pelf will never be in a situation where he has to issue an intentional walk. In fact he’ll be so perfect throughout the season, there will be hardly anyone on 2B with a big hitter coming up.
Kingman 26
4/9/2010-12:04pm at 12:04 pm (UTC -4)
Thanks for the info Grave; fantastically presented as always. The scariest Pelf stat I saw last night was opponents’ BA against him last year—was like .305 or something.
Have really liked Pelf since those first couple of starts when he took his turn in the Lima/Soler Conga Line in 2006. Really hope this pitch is the thing that gives him the chance to become the consistently successful number 2 or 3 we all want him to be.
His attitude, as well as the diet and weight loss, combined with the new pitch, all certainly point in a much more positive direction than the spring results.
GravediggerHebner
4/9/2010-12:10pm at 12:10 pm (UTC -4)
I’m certainly no sabermetrician so I don’t understand many of the “deeper” stats that might help draw conclusions, but other than the HR/flyball jump last year, and the BAA that you mention, the other thing that jumped out at me which I just couldn’t figure out how to work into the post was the percentage of contact made swinging at Pelfrey’s pitches that were out of the strike zone. It was 76.8% by far the highest of his career.
I can’t tell whether that resulted in more hits or more outs but I found it odd that opposing batters made way more contact with Pelfrey’s out-of-the-strike-zone pitches than ever before.
Those various percentages are linked here if you or anyone else wants to check them out.
PLATE DISCIPLINE STATS
CaseStreet
4/9/2010-12:07pm at 12:07 pm (UTC -4)
Correct me if I’m wrong, but this splitter should really help increase his strikouts. Pelf’s career K/9 is just above 5. Out of 152 SP w/ 200+ innings over the past 3 seasons. Mike is #127 on K/9.
If you remember from my Mets Need Pitching post, “Assuming similar walk and GB/FB rates, the difference between a strikeout pitcher (9.0 K/9) and a non-strikeout pitcher (5.0 K/9) is nearly 1.5 runs per game.”
So if Mike were to improve his K/9 rate from 5 to 7, and his BB/9 rate stayed close to 3 and GB/FB rate stayed between 1.5 and 2.0, Pelfrey’s ERA should drop between the high 3s or low 4s.
Very exciting news. I hope it works out. Take that Peterson!
GravediggerHebner
4/9/2010-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
“If you can change speeds and locate, that may be better than throwing 99 or 100.â€
- Rick Peterson
trs86
4/9/2010-12:19pm at 12:19 pm (UTC -4)
See Armando and Lugo.
CaseStreet
4/9/2010-12:30pm at 12:30 pm (UTC -4)
Going further. By improving his K rate, Pelf should also improve his BB rate. So, really he’d be better than Lackey (on paper).
DNDJohan aka kistics
4/9/2010-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
ha!
Mr North Jersey
4/9/2010-12:27pm at 12:27 pm (UTC -4)
G-R-A-V-E!!!
LOL Dude that is one of my favorite games ever. When I saw Up Your Arsenal I was like no it can’t be Grave is referencing Ratchet n Clank?
Great memories playing that game. Insomniac Rules.
Now I will go back and read the post.
stickguy
4/9/2010-1:34pm at 1:34 pm (UTC -4)
this points out something that bugs me about the sabermetrics crowd. At lest the ones that think the numbers tell the whole story.
What they can’t account for is players changing from year to year. Especially relatively young players (that are still developing), and older guys (that tend to fall apart). and doubly especially pitchers.
Lot’s of guys have mediocre years early in their carerrs, but manage to actually develop better control or that extra pitch that helps them make the leap. And their numbers from the year before don’t guarantee what they will do in the future.
Certianly they are valauble, but the himan elememnt (what TRS likes to say is the FO knows more about the players than we do) is still huge.
Any dope of a GM can surf the internet or get a fantasy magazine and see history. The real good ones can look at a meat sack of stats (or whatever that line is) and envision what they will become.
The saber only crowd would have cut Halladay early on for sure, given how bad he was. CLiff Lee too.
OK, pointless rant over, but I do think that anyone with Pelfs natural gifts (and FB) can’t be given up on too quickly, and he really can become the mythical #2 (especially if you set the bar at lackey). And maybe even this year!
I got no problem if Pelf has his break out year and Neise is for real, settling in with Santana as a solid 1-3, and not killing the BP.
4-5 is still up in the air though (hey Omar, work them phones!)
ceetar
4/9/2010-1:41pm at 1:41 pm (UTC -4)
And now that Pelfrey has encorporated a different pitch (if he sticks to it anyway) using data from last year and previous is next to useless to make any valid points about this year.
Something else that I’ve never seen brought up in stats (that I’ve noticed) is bat size and weight. These things _do_ vary, and I don’t know how often players change from year to year, but adding an ounce on the end of the bat or to the weight is going to make a big different on bat speed, and the types of contact they get and which zones they hit in.