The Mets are 6-1 in their last seven games, and there is a lot to be feeling good about. They got their first series win, their first sweep, and are above .500. They’re only 1.5 games behind the Phillies now, with three games to play before they head down there to play them. It looks like they’ll have a chance in a head-to-head battle to take the division lead going into May.
The pitching has been surprisingly good, even for someone that thought it had potential.  They have some things to work out with Maine, and I’m concerned about how it’s being handled, but one starter is not going to doom this team, and if he can’t get it done someone else will. It seems like the Mets might already be aiming Takahashi at that spot, and if not there is Dillon Gee in the minors, or Pat Misch, or a trade.
The offense has only gone in spurts so far. Ike Davis has been pretty good, but he’s still a rookie and whether or not he’s good enough to do this all year and adjust to the pitchers adjusting to him remains to be seen. It’s still nice to have a talented lefty first baseman out there defensively. Reyes is starting to hit again, Bay may be starting to get hot. Wright’s having some struggles but I’m not worried about him.
You can’t have a positive post without mentioning Mike Pelfrey specifically. He leads the majors in ERA. He’s 4-0.  He’s pitching well, and with confidence.  Sure, four starts isn’t exactly a whole season and he’s had good stretches before, but just looking at the way he’s pitching and the confidence he’s pitching with gives fans confidence that he’ll continue to be good. Obviously he won’t be this good, and he will have to make adjustments as hitters get used to his new style of pitching, but I’ve got confidence he will make those adjustments and allow the Mets to have a 1-2 punch that can compete with anyone.
These next nine games are big games for the Mets. Three games in 24 hours is tough, and then a three game series against the Phillies after an off day. With these games the Mets can shake off their bad start and assert their team into the division race conversation. They can put the pressure on the Phillies who many think can start coasting in May towards the National League pennant. The three games after the weekend are important as well, as it’s important to not undo any progress made against the Phillies. Even if they were to lose to the Phillies, those three games can help assert that you can knock the Mets back, but not out.   Additionally, a winning record over the next nine games helps put .500 in the back window for good.Â
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32 comments
stickguy
4/27/2010-10:58am at 10:58 am (UTC -4)
Not that i should be tooting my own horn (but hey, if I don’t, who will), but you might recall that I repeatedly said during ST (pretty much without any support) that the Mets rotation was actually going to be a strength of the team. And other than Maine, so it has been!
saltygary
4/27/2010-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
I will wait another month before I start eating my plate of crow, hopefully it will be a big plate with enough for seconds.
ceetar
4/27/2010-11:27am at 11:27 am (UTC -4)
A lot will round out into form in a month. I suspect Maine will either be pitching pretty well or not pitching at all. Pelfrey will likely have had a bump or two that he’s hopefully overcome and is getting excited about being named to his first All-Star Game. We’ll know more about how Perez will be pitching all season, and his velocity, and learn a lot more about Niese.
GravediggerHebner
4/27/2010-11:30am at 11:30 am (UTC -4)
I think this phenomenon is called premature self-congratulation, and your significant other is not pleased. You made this proclamation without support because there really wasn’t any, there were hopes and dreams of rediscovering seasons long past or potential untapped. Congrats on 3 weeks of that, good luck maintaining it for 23 more.
ceetar
4/27/2010-11:36am at 11:36 am (UTC -4)
There was plenty of support, and while it’s too early, some of that has come to pass.
Pelfrey’s new pitch has turned out better than expected. Perez is pitching at least to the .500 caliber of his career, and is showing signs of real pitching that could push him over the mark.
Niese is keeping them in games.
Maine isn’t pitching them out of games, although he’s certainly not getting the job done either. (I didn’t see his last start to know what was up, but I don’t like that he didn’t throw over 100 pitches, because I’m really thinking he needs to build arm strength)
GravediggerHebner
4/27/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
You say there was plenty of support, I’ll just refer you to the legions of Mets fans specifically and baseball fans in general who strongly believed the Mets needed to augment their starting pitching in some way, whether it be with a bona fide # 2 starter or at least with someone to stick into the # 4 slot, to suggest otherwise.
I am unable, unless presented with huge amounts of evidence to the contrary, to accept the phrase “plenty of support” as accurate except in the context that your definition of “plenty” and mine are significantly different.
Regardless of how you feel about my first 2 paragraphs here, I do agree ultimately with the middle of your first sentence “…it’s too early…”
ceetar
4/27/2010-11:55am at 11:55 am (UTC -4)
by support I meant factual, not people.
I did agree the Mets needed to get another pitcher for depth purposes, but they chose to trust Niese, and so far that hasn’t seemed bad.
My point all along was that the Mets pitchers had the ability to pitch as well as any of thoes free agents, and while they might be more up and down, their would be plenty of up. So far it’s been up, and we’ll see how they minimize the down before judging for sure, but I like what I’m seeing in terms of not expecting them to to completely bomb for a month.
GravediggerHebner
4/27/2010-12:14pm at 12:14 pm (UTC -4)
That’s all fair, except I feel that there was plenty of factual evidence to support doubt in this rotation coming in, evidence which led people to cry out for addition(s), and except for Pelfrey (1 guy) the balance of the rotation outside of Johan who most reasonable people expect to do well is not really erasing those doubts, not in any firm way.
They are walking a tightrope and I am watching anxiously to see if they can make it across or if they will fall, and I’m hoping if they do fall there is a net there, a net which right now I can’t see.
Kingman 26
4/27/2010-11:52am at 11:52 am (UTC -4)
Maine has pitched them out of just about every game. 2 runners pretty much every inning every game.
Niese is walking on eggshells with his 1.9 WHIP which will have to go down if he is to keep us competitive.
Ollie has been OK, nothing more.
Great as Pelf has been, he is walking a lot of guys and I think allowed 11 baserunners in his 5 shutout innings the other day. That will not continue.
Nieve and Takahashi are clearly getting used a lot, and the pen cannot go 3-4 good innings every night.
Yes, the team has played VERY well against the Cubs and Braves. Let us see how they do against better competition.
Is this a team which will have a starting staff with a sub-3.00 ERA all year, or a team with two real good pitchers and otherwise a bunch of mediocrities who cannot go 6 innings?
The next few weeks will tell.
One thing people are conveniently ignoring is the walks…we seem to be last in the NL in walks allowed, and this is across the board. The team must lower the BB and WHIP or this will, of course, come back to get them seriously, and soon.
Yeah, everyone is getting out of jams with 2 guys on every day; this won’t continue.
ceetar
4/27/2010-12:01pm at 12:01 pm (UTC -4)
I’d say that both Perez, as do most strikeout pitchers (the Mets near tops there), strand a lot of runners historically.
Yes, they’re walking guys. But 10 of them Manuel walked. They’ve played a lot more innings than some of the other teams.
Maine hasn’t pitched us out of games, because except for one, he hasn’t given up a ton of runs at all.
But yes, length is an issue especially with a jidiot as a manager. But April is rarely the month for length (and he pulls Pelfrey too early). Perez is coming off surgery and would likely take longer to really build up arm strength, which is why I accept his mediocrity right now, and was never expecting him to step it up to an Ace, but merely to an above .500 pitcher.
Niese is a rookie, so while 1.9WHIP needs to be worked on, you have to expect a rookie to learn and grow. And this is where my depth issues come in.
Why can’t the bullpen go 3-4 every night (or some nights, given Pelfrey and Santana pitching at least 6 most nights)?
Takahashi and Nieve are/were both starters. They’ve been used to an over 100IP workload. sure the bullpen is different, but some guys like more regular work, and you could even argue it makes them more effective. It’s not a hard numbers cap, but manage each guy and make sure they’re not hurt, not hurting, and rest them when they need rest. (Manuel fails at this though) Pedro pitched a ton last year, effectively. Why not again? 2006s success was based on an overworked bullpen.
stickguy
4/27/2010-12:32pm at 12:32 pm (UTC -4)
Kong, did you and Grave hang out this weekend, crying in your blue moons?
trs86
4/27/2010-12:45pm at 12:45 pm (UTC -4)
Dang, the Braves are pretty stiff competition right? A lot of people picked them for the WC in the NL. Cubs certainly are playing better now.
trs86
4/27/2010-12:49pm at 12:49 pm (UTC -4)
Also, Pelfrey’s walks are up but so is his K/9. Hits H/9 is at an incredible rate and has yet to give up a HR>
CaseStreet
4/27/2010-11:47am at 11:47 am (UTC -4)
I’m hoping the Mets are 15-12 by May 5th.
162 games / 6 = 27 games
90 wins / 6 = 15 wins
So, every 27 games, the Mets need to win 15 games to be on pace for 90 wins.
ceetar
4/27/2010-11:51am at 11:51 am (UTC -4)
5-3 seems reasonable, as long as it’s at least 2-1 against the Phillies.
oleosmirf
4/27/2010-12:36pm at 12:36 pm (UTC -4)
Pelfrey has been sensational thus far, Santana needs no introduction and Niese is pitching very well for a rookie but Perez and Maine still bother me.
Considering Niese is a rookie and will have his ups and downs, it is imperative that not only do Ollie and Maine need to hold the opposition to 3 ER or less but they need to be able to get 6 IP at least half the time.
these 5.1 IP with 3 ER and coming out of the game with runners on is very dangerous, especially since we arent hitting much. luckily our bullpen has been able to shut the door. im just weary that after the all star break, the bullpen will be shot…
stickguy
4/27/2010-12:42pm at 12:42 pm (UTC -4)
well, generally (a dangerous word when discussing the Mets, especially run by Jerry), as the season goes along and the weather improves, the SPs should start going a bit longer. I think as they settle in you will see more efficiency, and a lot more 7 inning outings, especially if the offense starts putting up some runs so every game isn’t a nail biter.
And I think one thing Omar did right was get a lot of depth for the pen. So, if Jeryr burns out a few guys, there are viable replacements in the minors to call up.
Maine still scares me, but I think he will either rebound soon, or be out of the rotation. Either way, not a problem. And for some reason, Perez actually encourages me so far. I think he will string a bunch of solid starts in a row together as he gets more comfortable with the “new” ollie.
metsfan4decades
4/27/2010-12:37pm at 12:37 pm (UTC -4)
I’ve read the post and all comments on this.
Many make some very good points – even though some seem to be on the opposite side of the fence.
Me? I think I’m just done making predictions for the time being.
I really wanted to see that #2 brought in over the winter but it didn’t happen, for a variety of reason. So for the start of the season, we’re rolling the dice with what we have. Outside of Maine, it’s more than I could have hoped for. If I would have put MOP in order of improvement, my prediction would have been: Pelfrey Ollie Maine. In fact, I think I stated it a few times. I was always worried more about Maine and after watching him in ST even more so.
The BP, so far, is more than I expected. Probably in part due to the fact that I don’t have to hold my breath every time Green enters a game.
The hitting is way less than I expected so far. I didn’t think everyone would jump out at the gate but certainly didn’t expect the slow start by several. That being said, I can’t imagine either Wright or Bay continues to slump.
I believed coming into the season – and still do – that the NL east is there for the taking for just about all teams. I don’t see anyone running away with this. Hopefully, we’ll be the ones standing on top this year…..
stickguy
4/27/2010-12:46pm at 12:46 pm (UTC -4)
they are currently 10-9, 1 game behind the Phillies, with some of the major stars of the offense basically MIA so far. So, just based on reason and history, they will eventually have hot stretches too. And if a couple of them can do it together (without all the supporting guys going ice cold at the same time!), the offense will score some serious runs.
Ideally, they come to life against the dodgers, and explode thsi weekend in Philly.
darknova306
4/27/2010-12:59pm at 12:59 pm (UTC -4)
We’re barely at the end of April, it’s hardly time to be looking at trends. Let’s wait until the weather has warmed up a bit and guys have a couple months of playing time before getting overly optimistic/pessimistic. Gotta love the fact that we’ve allowed by far the fewest runs in the NL East, and only 3 teams in baseball have allowed fewer.
trs86
4/27/2010-1:02pm at 1:02 pm (UTC -4)
Can we apply that logic to David Wright then?
darknova306
4/27/2010-1:05pm at 1:05 pm (UTC -4)
Absolutely. I’m not going to claim to know what’s wrong with him, but I know he’s way better than he’s shown so far this season.
trs86
4/27/2010-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
whew…
darknova306
4/27/2010-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
Have I come off as a DW hater? I hope not, cause that’s not me.
Mr North Jersey
4/27/2010-1:08pm at 1:08 pm (UTC -4)
I think Grave nailed it with the phrase “premature self-congratulation”.
The Mets have pitched way better than many expected and I don’t want to take away from that. I am happily surprised by them this season but 3 weeks does not a season make and just as they look good right now in 30 days we can be having a completely different outlook on things.
Metsfan4decades asked me in the dugout the other day to give Minaya credit and I half-jokingly said do I have to? We then agreed that i can reserve judgment till either Memorial Day or All-Star break not sure which. The point is while things look promising we just don’t have enough of a sample size to know if this will be the norm or rather just the exception.
Have they pitched well? Yes, but let’s not ignore the alarming amount of walks they are giving up or the starters inability to get through 6 innings. The Mets cannot continue to constantly keep putting runners on base and expect to keep getting out of it without giving up runs at the rate that they have so far.
Talk to me on Memorial Day I may have a different opinion by then.
trs86
4/27/2010-1:12pm at 1:12 pm (UTC -4)
Thus my same opinion about David Wright.
Mr North Jersey
4/27/2010-1:23pm at 1:23 pm (UTC -4)
Agreed while he is no doubt struggling right now and any attempt to suggest it is not that bad is just foolish. He is a streaky hitter and deserves the time to come out of it. That being said I think said this yesterday but if come June 1st he is still struggling as he is now I will personally be in panic mode with a 3rd of the season gone already.
trs86
4/27/2010-2:30pm at 2:30 pm (UTC -4)
Yeah, and I personally would have a level of increased concern for the season but not for Wright. I just don’t think a guy could lose it even that quick. Last season as bad as it was he still produced better than most 3B. I don’t expect him to get worse.
metsfan4decades
4/27/2010-1:16pm at 1:16 pm (UTC -4)
Ha! Just wanted to be clear that wasn’t exactly an across the board confidence vote in Omar.
The point I was giving Omar credit for was the catching situation. I’m confessing to not giving much credence to the pitching was worse than it should have been last year b/c the catchers weren’t calling good games. I basically wrote that off as an excuse. Now…I’m humbly admitting I was wrong.
Given the improvement with Pelf alone so far (especially in that 5 inning game where he had nothing) and his very vocal comments on giving a lot of credit to Blanco…I’m thinking Omar was on to something in that regard.
And the more ‘little’ pieces he tries to improve this team with, the more it will add up across the board.
Mr North Jersey
4/27/2010-1:20pm at 1:20 pm (UTC -4)
Ahh thx 4D for that I knew it had to do with Minaya but forgot the context of it.
metsfan4decades
4/27/2010-1:26pm at 1:26 pm (UTC -4)
Conversely, look at the Phils team/situation right now. I’ve spent some time reading the MLBTR reactions and breakdown of their latest contract extension to Howard, as well as fan reactions.
Philly certainly has been busy bringing some ‘superstars’ on board and locking up some of their own stars these past few years. To me, some of these contracts are just bad. Like Ibanez, Lidge, and the multi year contracts they gave out to their bench players like Schneider. The Hamels one might wind up costing them as well.
IMO, they virtually ignored their BP – which has been less than stellar.
These bench players they signed multi years to was based on what? Talent? I’m not seeing it.
Their farm system is a little depleted – and they’ve got no ‘heir apparent’ for the SS position. Are they going to try and lock up Rollins as well this/next year? More important, will they almost have to?
I could be completely off but I see the Phils FO doing what the Mets FO did for the past several years – 2010 excluded. I think Omar learned a hard lesson with 2009. He didn’t panic and trade the farm for perceived needs. Whether that was by design or he didn’t have the opportunity to, we’ll probably never know.
I just think we’re in better shape now than we have been – even with a few contract extensions we’ll like to do (I hope) and a couple of bad contracts we’ll have to live out thru 2011 (if we can’t do a trade).
Mr North Jersey
4/27/2010-1:33pm at 1:33 pm (UTC -4)
You make good points 4d. I think the Mets biggest strength will be and must be how the Baby Mets develop.
Pelfrey, Niese, Mejia, Davis, Kirk N., Thole, F. Martinez, and Holt some of these guys will need to step up and finally solidify themselves as quality everyday MLB Players that you can add to a core of talent and build around.
In my opinion of course.