All-star cast?
Dr. Johan Santana operated on the heart of Mets fans last night. He applied the anesthesia of his overall career excellence to the patient. This put the patient into a deep sleep, confident in the doctor’s track record to perform his duties superbly while we, the patient, remained in a trance. He cut and separated our sternum exposing our heart. Then he lobbed a stink bomb into our chest, which normally would be very bad for us. But fortunately for us his control was off and he missed. So we can smell it. It’s undeniably on us. But it’s not inside us. It is not a permanent part of our post-surgery bodies. With the passage of time and a few good scrubbings the terrible odor on our breast bone will become a distant memory. It will stink for a while but with the proper after-care we will eventually resume normal fandom.
This guy keeps bouncing back, why can't we?
During our recovery we will have plenty of free time. We should take advantage of that by doing some reading. I recommend baseball-reference.com as an excellent source of reading material, and the best part is it’s free (heart surgery isn’t cheap). As a part of my own recovery from last night I’ve been reading some of what they have to offer. Allow me to share some of it with you. Below are two tables. The first one is Santana’s career first-half/second-half splits. Note that he is traditionally a good first-half pitcher but a great second-half pitcher. Pay even more attention to the second table. That is Santana’s first-half/second-half splits for his 2004 Cy Young season. What’s perhaps most relevant about that season is it followed off-season surgery to clean up Santana’s elbow. He had a similar procedure prior to this season. Does that mean that his recovery will be the same? No, but it’s reasonable to suggest that it might be. If nothing else the general idea that it might take him a few months to rediscover his old self seems fair.
Feel free to check out Santana’s game logs from 2004. Note that he threw quite a stinker in May of 2004. It was May 23 against the Chicago White Sox. He threw 3 innings giving up 7 runs on 10 hits, including 3 home runs, and 2 walks to leave his record at 2-2 with an ERA of 5.60. So let’s not get too worried about last night. There is plenty of history to suggest that we and Johan Santana will make full recoveries.
| I | Split | W | L | W-L% | ERA | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | WP | BF | WHIP | SO/9 | SO/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 64 | 43 | .598 | 3.46 | 186 | 134 | 5 | 3 | 979.1 | 855 | 406 | 377 | 118 | 281 | 8 | 994 | 22 | 34 | 4026 | 1.160 | 9.1 | 3.54 | |
| 2nd Half | 61 | 19 | .763 | 2.73 | 130 | 105 | 4 | 3 | 764.1 | 608 | 252 | 232 | 74 | 203 | 2 | 768 | 12 | 31 | 3065 | 1.061 | 9.0 | 3.78 |
| I | Split | W | L | W-L% | ERA | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | WP | BF | WHIP | SO/9 | SO/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Half | 7 | 6 | .538 | 3.78 | 19 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 123.2 | 101 | 54 | 52 | 18 | 31 | 0 | 136 | 4 | 1 | 494 | 1.067 | 9.9 | 4.39 | |
| 2nd Half | 13 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.21 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 104.1 | 55 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 129 | 5 | 6 | 387 | 0.748 | 11.1 | 5.61 |
17 comments
Mr North Jersey
5/3/2010-11:21am at 11:21 am (UTC -4)
Loving your way with words Grave. =)
Ceetar made a similar opinion in that maybe Santana just needs more time. I am really hoping that that is what it is because the thought of not having our Ace ever again is tough.
whataputz
5/3/2010-11:24am at 11:24 am (UTC -4)
Man, if we could just pick up 1 more solid pitcher, I think we could really make some noise. Johan is Johan, and I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, and maybe he can use that loss as motivation. Pelf is off to a great start, and I think he is a solid # 3 pitcher. Neise is a top prospect, still very young, and I think that new cutter has put him over the top. The problem is Ollie and Maine, especially back-to-back. If we could just get a solid pitcher, and dump Maine, you’re talking about a very good rotation. I think you could live with Ollie at 5, because he is capable of giving you 1 caliber performances. If Beltran can come back to his normal self, and we add a pitcher, we can be just as good as any othe NL team, and could possibly even make it to the WS to lose to the Yankees!
ceetar
5/3/2010-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
Yanks are not making the World Series.
trs86
5/3/2010-11:29am at 11:29 am (UTC -4)
I agree. At this point if you could bring in a solid mid-rotation guy and bump Perez/Maine into one spot instead of 2 you could do wonders. I know this will spark the failed off-season talk again but that still assumes that any of those options were available or better. I am hoping the Mets decided to give Maine and Perez the benefit of the doubt with a short hook.
Kingman 26
5/3/2010-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
Yeah, do love the optimism.
But I am looking ahead.
Johan, without the extra mph which was stolen from his and Ollie and Maine’s lockers, is not going to be the 2004 Johan.
This team is firmly in 1968 or 1984 or 1998 mode.
A year away and loaded with promise.
trs86
5/3/2010-11:34am at 11:34 am (UTC -4)
So far Johan is 2mph off his averages in 2008. 2008 was a very good season for him. We all have to hope that he has not built up the strength from his surgery and that as the season progresses his velocity will increase along with his control.
whataputz
5/3/2010-11:37am at 11:37 am (UTC -4)
Maybe hitters are just adjusted to him? Maybe he’s tipping his change-up or something? I mean he throws 3 pitches. Sure it has brought him tremendous success, but a team like the Phillies who faces him multiple times a year, might have figured the change out by now. Lets hope not. I think though it is clear that Santana is not the same pitcher he once was. Not saying he;s bad, I still think he is an ace, he’s just not going to win cy youngs anymore.
Kingman 26
5/3/2010-11:43am at 11:43 am (UTC -4)
I agree.
Johan is very good, but is aging, has a lot of surgery miles on him, and 2 mph is huge for anyone, especially a power pitcher who depends on Ks.
I love the future; just cannot let myself believe a fantasy just yet.
Not with all of the missing mph somewhere in the area.
trs86
5/3/2010-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
I think he could still win a Cy young too depending on how long his streaks last. I think he will be very streaky.
Mr North Jersey
5/3/2010-11:44am at 11:44 am (UTC -4)
I am sure Santana will trade that Cy Young for a W.S. Ring
whataputz
5/3/2010-11:56am at 11:56 am (UTC -4)
Totally agree. If we added another 1-2 caliber pitcher (lets just say Oswalt, or someone like him), and we have Johan Oswalt (or whoever) Pelf Neise Ollie, especially in citi field, than we can make some noise. I think they were very reluctant to add a pitcher because they didn’t know what we had. Now it’s clear that Neise has the goods, Pelf is doing fine, and Maine/Ollie are meh. In this park you build around pitching, and speed. If we add a pitcher we have a great rotation, and if Beltran comes back to form, we have a very fast team with some pop that can manufacture enough runs to support a good staff. To me we a re a hitter and pitcher away from true contention.
whataputz
5/3/2010-11:58am at 11:58 am (UTC -4)
Still, I gotta say I a very happy with what I have seen so far this season. Remember that Reyes still isn’t there. To me Neise and Pelf have been the highlight of the season so far.
Mr North Jersey
5/3/2010-12:02pm at 12:02 pm (UTC -4)
Considering my stance as far as starting pitching went all of this past off season. I’d have to say yes we were always 1 #2 type starter away from being serious contenders.
Now if as some suggest Santana has to reinvent himself then we are in deep doodoo.
I don’t share that way of thinking just yet and like Grave and Ceetar pointed out maybe Santana just needs some time to get into showing people talk about reinventing himself is a tad 2 early. Or so I hope.
GravediggerHebner
5/3/2010-11:59am at 11:59 am (UTC -4)
I wrote above strictly about Johan, not about any World Series, so I’m not sure why the references to 68-84-98 or believing fantasies are here.
My only goal here is to say there are sound reasons to believe that Johan will be alright. I don’t have access to his monthly 2004 mph so I can’t assuage anything specifically on that topic.
I’m simply saying Johan has had this surgery before and started out somewhat pitifully after it, then became a giant among men after a few months. He was younger then and I don’t expect him to replicate that dominant performance, but I believe he can and will be better in June-October than he has been in April and May and that is my point. Not really talking about the team as a whole or post-season aspirations/fantasies.
We often stray from the topic of the post in the comments and that’s fine, you have every right to express whatever you want to here. I just want to make clear that all I was talking about was Johan Santana. Period. The “we” pronoun at the end when I say “we will be fine” is referring to “we” as people invested in the success/failure of Johan Santana.
Kingman 26
5/3/2010-12:03pm at 12:03 pm (UTC -4)
Really saying my 2 cents, probably worth less, that I am looking ahead, not back.
That’s all.
GravediggerHebner
5/3/2010-12:05pm at 12:05 pm (UTC -4)
Your 2 cents are worth far more than that and are always welcome. Just making sure I didn’t lead you there, that you went there on your own, and I know now that you did.
metsfan4decades
5/3/2010-11:31am at 11:31 am (UTC -4)
Yes, I was trying to remind myself of all these facts after the game last night. I had previously read about Johan’s 2004 start somewhere else (can’t remember where) but didn’t have all these facts laid out as you did.